** WTNT63 KNHC 031810 *** TCUAT3 TROPICAL STORM HARVEY TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 210 PM AST WED AUG 03 2005 THE FIRST REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING TROPICAL STORM HARVEY INDICATE THAT HARVEY IS STRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED. THE AIRCRAFT FOUND A MINIMUM SEA-LEVEL PRESSURE OF 999 MB AND PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 62 KT. BASED ON THESE DATA...THE INTENSITY OF HARVEY IS NOW ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 60 MPH. FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTPQ20 BABJ 031800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY MATSA 0509 (0509) INITIAL TIME 031800 UTC 00HR 22.5N 125.4E 960HPA 40M/S 30KTS 600KM 50KTS 200KM P12HR NW 15KM/H= ** WTNT33 KNHC 031826 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM HARVEY SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM AST WED AUG 03 2005 ...REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT HARVEY IS STRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED...WITH MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR 60 MPH... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 2 PM AST...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HARVEY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.9 NORTH... LONGITUDE 67.7 WEST OR ABOUT 195 MILES... 315 KM... WEST-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA. HARVEY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 10 MPH ...17 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH... 95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES ...140 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN BERMUDA IN ASSOCIATION WITH HARVEY. REPEATING THE 2 PM AST POSITION...30.9 N... 67.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 999 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM AST. FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT23 KNHC 031826 *** TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM HARVEY SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082005 1800Z WED AUG 03 2005 A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.9N 67.7W AT 03/1800Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 0NE 45SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 45NE 75SE 45SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.9N 67.7W AT 03/1800Z AT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.4N 68.2W FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 31.8N 66.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 45SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 75SE 60SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 32.6N 64.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 33.3N 61.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 34.0N 59.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 35.5N 56.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 38.0N 51.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 41.0N 45.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.9N 67.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/2100Z FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT73 KNHC 031826 *** SPFAT3 TROPICAL STORM HARVEY SPECIAL PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM AST WED AUG 03 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 2 PM AST...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HARVEY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.7 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8AM AST SAT AUG 6 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 32.6N 64.3W 27 2 X X 29 34.0N 59.5W X 6 8 3 17 33.3N 61.7W 2 15 3 1 21 BERMUDA 32 X X X 32 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM THU FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8AM THU TO 8PM THU C FROM 8PM THU TO 8AM FRI D FROM 8AM FRI TO 8AM SAT E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM SAT X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT43 KNHC 031830 *** TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM HARVEY SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM EDT WED AUG 03 2005 THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS ISSUED TO UPDATE THE INITIAL AND FORECAST INTENSITY FOR HARVEY...AND TO UPDATE THE WIND RADII. RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FOUND 62 KT AT 1200 FT IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT...AND A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 999 MB. THE 62 KT FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND SUPPORTS ABOUT 50 KT AT THE SURFACE...AND IN FACT THE FLIGHT CREW MADE A VISUAL ESTIMATE OF 60 KT SURFACE WINDS. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 03/1800Z 30.9N 67.7W 50 KT 12HR VT 04/0000Z 31.8N 66.6W 55 KT 24HR VT 04/1200Z 32.6N 64.3W 55 KT 36HR VT 05/0000Z 33.3N 61.7W 50 KT 48HR VT 05/1200Z 34.0N 59.5W 45 KT 72HR VT 06/1200Z 35.5N 56.0W 40 KT 96HR VT 07/1200Z 38.0N 51.0W 35 KT 120HR VT 08/1200Z 41.0N 45.0W 30 KT $$ ** WTPQ20 BABJ 031800 CCA *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY MATSA 0509 (0509) INITIAL TIME 031800 UTC 00HR 22.5N 125.4E 960HPA 40M/S 30KTS 600KM 50KTS 200KM P12HR NW 15KM/H P+24HR 25.3N 124.0E 950HPA 45M/S P+48HR 27.5N 122.4E 940HPA 50M/S P+72HR 30.5N 121.8E 945HPA 45M/S= ** WTJP22 RJTD 031800 *** WARNING 031800. WARNING VALID 041800. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0509 MATSA (0509) 955 HPA AT 22.4N 125.4E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 07 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 325 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 260 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 040600UTC AT 24.0N 124.7E WITH 60 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 945 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 041800UTC AT 25.6N 123.6E WITH 90 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 940 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 051800UTC AT 28.7N 122.8E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 061800UTC AT 32.5N 122.2E WITH 220 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 031800 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0509 MATSA (0509) ANALYSIS PSTN 031800UTC 22.4N 125.4E GOOD MOVE NNW 07KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 080KT 50KT 90NM 30KT 325NM SOUTH 260NM NORTH FORECAST 24HF 041800UTC 25.6N 123.6E 90NM 70% MOVE NW 09KT PRES 940HPA MXWD 085KT 48HF 051800UTC 28.7N 122.8E 150NM 70% MOVE NNW 07KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT 72HF 061800UTC 32.5N 122.2E 220NM 70% MOVE N 09KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 031900 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY MATSA 0509 (0509) INITIAL TIME 031900 UTC 00HR 22.6N 125.2E 960HPA 40M/S 30KTS 600KM 50KTS 200KM P12HR NW 15KM/H= ** WTNT23 KNHC 032030 *** TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM HARVEY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082005 2100Z WED AUG 03 2005 AT 5 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR BERMUDA...INDICATING THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.1N 67.2W AT 03/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 60 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 0NE 45SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 45NE 75SE 45SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.1N 67.2W AT 03/2100Z AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.9N 67.7W FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 31.8N 65.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 45SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 75SE 60SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 32.5N 63.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 33.0N 61.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 33.5N 59.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 34.5N 57.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 37.5N 52.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 40.5N 47.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.1N 67.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0300Z FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT43 KNHC 032030 *** TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM HARVEY DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT WED AUG 03 2005 ON THEIR SECOND PASS THROUGH HARVEY...THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FOUND THAT THE PRESSURE WAS DOWN TO 998 MB. THERE IS NOW A SMALL CONVECTIVE BURST GOING OFF DIRECTLY OVER THE CENTER. THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BEEN GENERATING EASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE CYCLONE IS BEGINNING TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EASTWARD. THIS WILL PROVIDE A BRIEF LOW-SHEAR WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR HARVEY TO STRENGTHEN BEFORE UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES BECOME ESTABLISHED IN 36-48 HOURS. THUS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A LITTLE MORE INTENSIFICATION AND THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE THAT HARVEY COULD BECOME A HURRICANE. THIS FORECAST IS A LITTLE BELOW THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. HARVEY HAS TURNED TO THE RIGHT...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 060/9. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF HARVEY WILL LEAVE THE SYSTEM BEHIND FOR THE NEXT SHORT WAVE IN ABOUT 3 DAYS. THIS COULD CAUSE HARVEY TO MOVE SLOWLY IN THE 36-72 HOUR TIME FRAME BEFORE ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH DURING THE FIRST 48 HOURS...AND IS NEAR THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 03/2100Z 31.1N 67.2W 50 KT 12HR VT 04/0600Z 31.8N 65.7W 55 KT 24HR VT 04/1800Z 32.5N 63.7W 55 KT 36HR VT 05/0600Z 33.0N 61.5W 50 KT 48HR VT 05/1800Z 33.5N 59.5W 45 KT 72HR VT 06/1800Z 34.5N 57.0W 40 KT 96HR VT 07/1800Z 37.5N 52.5W 35 KT 120HR VT 08/1800Z 40.5N 47.0W 30 KT $$ ** WTNT33 KNHC 032030 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM HARVEY ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM AST WED AUG 03 2005 ...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR BERMUDA... AT 5 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR BERMUDA...INDICATING THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HARVEY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.1 NORTH... LONGITUDE 67.2 WEST OR ABOUT 165 MILES... 265 KM... WEST-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA. HARVEY IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 10 MPH ...17 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF HARVEY SHOULD PASS VERY NEAR BERMUDA THURSDAY MORNING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH... 95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT HARVEY COULD REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE PASSING BY BERMUDA. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES ...140 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN BERMUDA IN ASSOCIATION WITH HARVEY. REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...31.1 N... 67.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 998 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM AST. FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT73 KNHC 032031 *** SPFAT3 TROPICAL STORM HARVEY PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM AST WED AUG 03 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HARVEY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.2 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2PM AST SAT AUG 6 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 32.5N 63.7W 26 1 X 1 28 33.5N 59.5W X 8 6 3 17 33.0N 61.5W 3 13 3 1 20 BERMUDA 35 X X 1 36 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM THU FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2PM THU TO 2AM FRI C FROM 2AM FRI TO 2PM FRI D FROM 2PM FRI TO 2PM SAT E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM SAT X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTPN32 PGTW 032100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 09W (MATSA) WARNING NR 016 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 031800Z --- NEAR 22.3N 125.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 22.3N 125.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 040600Z --- 23.6N 124.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 041800Z --- 25.0N 123.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 050600Z --- 26.2N 123.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 051800Z --- 27.4N 122.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 061800Z --- 30.3N 121.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 071800Z --- 32.7N 120.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 081800Z --- 34.8N 119.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 032100Z POSITION NEAR 22.6N 125.2E. TYPHOON (TY) 09W (MATSA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 255 NM SOUTH-SOUTH- WEST OF OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY REVEALS TIGHTLY CURVED BANDS AND INCREASED DEEP CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. MAXI- MUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031800Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 040300Z, 040900Z, 041500Z AND 042100Z.// ** WTPN32 PGTW 032100 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 09W (MATSA) WARNING NR 016 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 031800Z --- NEAR 22.3N 125.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 22.3N 125.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 040600Z --- 23.6N 124.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT ** WTPN32 PGTW 032100 RRC *** 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 051800Z --- 27.4N 122.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 061800Z --- 30.3N 121.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT ** WTPN32 PGTW 032100 RRD *** RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 071800Z --- 32.7N 120.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 081800Z --- 34.8N 119.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 032100Z POSITION NEAR 22.6N 125.2E. TYPHOON (TY) 09W (MATSA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 255 NM SOUTH-SOUTH- WEST OF OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY REVEALS TIGHTLY CURVED BANDS AND INCREASED DEEP CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. MAXI- MUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031800Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 040300Z, 040900Z, 041500Z AND 042100Z.// ** WTPN32 PGTW 032100 RRB *** 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 041800Z --- 25.0N 123.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 050600Z --- 26.2N 123.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT ** WTPN32 PGTW 032100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 09W (MATSA) WARNING NR 016 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 031800Z --- NEAR 22.3N 125.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 22.3N 125.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 040600Z --- 23.6N 124.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 041800Z --- 25.0N 123.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 050600Z --- 26.2N 123.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 051800Z --- 27.4N 122.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 061800Z --- 30.3N 121.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 071800Z --- 32.7N 120.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 081800Z --- 34.8N 119.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 032100Z POSITION NEAR 22.6N 125.2E. TYPHOON (TY) 09W (MATSA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 255 NM SOUTH-SOUTH- WEST OF OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY REVEALS TIGHTLY CURVED BANDS AND INCREASED DEEP CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. MAXI- MUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031800Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 040300Z, 040900Z, 041500Z AND 042100Z.// ** WTPA22 PHFO 032059 *** TCMCP2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-C FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012005 2100Z WED AUG 03 2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-C HAS FORMED FAR SOUTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 141.0W AT 03/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 141.0W AT 03/2100Z AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 140.5W FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 15.4N 142.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 15.6N 144.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 15.8N 146.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 15.9N 147.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 16.1N 151.5W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 16.3N 155.5W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 16.4N 160.0W MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.1N 141.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0300Z FORECASTER MATSUDA $$ ** WTPA32 PHFO 032100 *** TCPCP2 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-C ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI 11 AM HST WED AUG 03 2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-C HAS FORMED FAR SOUTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 11 AM HST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-C WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.1 NORTH... LONGITUDE 141.0 WEST OR ABOUT 9580 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF HILO. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES. REPEATING THE 11 AM HST POSITION...15.1 N...141.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 30 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM HST. FORECASTER MATSUDA $$ ** WTPA42 PHFO 032109 *** TCDCP2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-C DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI 11 AM HST WED AUG 03 2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-C HAS FORMED FAR TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE CONSIDERED TO BE NEAR 25 KNOTS. ITS CLOUD STRUCTURE HAS BECOME MORE WELL DEFINED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AND IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE NONSHEAR WIND ENVIRONMENT. SST UNDER THE DEPRESSION IS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE AT 26 DEGREES C. HOWEVER THE UPPER LEVEL WIND PATTERN BECOMES QUITE WESTERLY AND NORTHWESTERLY AND SHOULD PROVIDE EFFECTIVE SHEARING ALOFT IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. THUS WILL STRENGTHEN ONE C TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH IN 24 HOURS AND THEN WEAKEN IT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE PATH SHOULD BECOME MORE EASTERLY AFTER INITIALLY MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHNORTHWEST...A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF ONE C IS RESPONSIBLE. FORECASTER MATSUDA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 03/2100Z 15.1N 141.0W 25 KT 12HR VT 04/0600Z 15.4N 142.5W 30 KT 24HR VT 04/1800Z 15.6N 144.5W 35 KT 36HR VT 05/0600Z 15.8N 146.3W 35 KT 48HR VT 05/1800Z 15.9N 147.9W 30 KT 72HR VT 06/1800Z 16.1N 151.5W 25 KT 96HR VT 07/1800Z 16.3N 155.5W 25 KT 120HR VT 08/1800Z 16.4N 160.0W 20 KT $$ ** WTPA32 PHFO 032113 CCA *** TCPCP2 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-C ADVISORY NUMBER 1...CORRECTED NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI 11 AM HST WED AUG 03 2005 CORRECTED DISTANCE FROM HILO ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-C HAS FORMED FAR SOUTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS... FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 11 AM HST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-C WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.1 NORTH... LONGITUDE 141.0 WEST OR ABOUT 1000 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF HILO. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES. REPEATING THE 11 AM HST POSITION...15.1 N...141.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 30 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM HST. FORECASTER MATSUDA $$ ** WTPQ20 BABJ 032100 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY MATSA 0509 (0509) INITIAL TIME 032100 UTC 00HR 22.8N 125.1E 960HPA 40M/S 30KTS 600KM 50KTS 200KM P12HR NW 15KM/H= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 032100 CCA *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY MATSA 0509 (0509) INITIAL TIME 032100 UTC 00HR 22.8N 125.1E 955HPA 40M/S 30KTS 600KM 50KTS 200KM P12HR NW 15KM/H P+24HR 25.5N 123.5E 940HPA 50M/S P+48HR 27.9N 122.2E 945HPA 50M/S P+72HR 30.9N 121.7E 960HPA 40M/S= ** WTPA42 PHFO 032135 CCA *** TCDCP2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-C DISCUSSION NUMBER 1...CORRECTED NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI 11 AM HST WED AUG 03 2005 CORRECTED DIRECTION SECOND TO LAST LINE TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-C HAS FORMED FAR TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE CONSIDERED TO BE NEAR 25 KNOTS. ITS CLOUD STRUCTURE HAS BECOME MORE WELL DEFINED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AND IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE NONSHEAR WIND ENVIRONMENT. SST UNDER THE DEPRESSION IS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE AT 26 DEGREES C. HOWEVER THE UPPER LEVEL WIND PATTERN BECOMES QUITE WESTERLY AND NORTHWESTERLY AND SHOULD PROVIDE EFFECTIVE SHEARING ALOFT IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. THUS WILL STRENGTHEN ONE C TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH IN 24 HOURS AND THEN WEAKEN IT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE PATH SHOULD BECOME MORE EASTERLY AFTER INITIALLY MOVING TOWARD THE WESTNORTHWEST...A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF ONE C IS RESPONSIBLE. FORECASTER MATSUDA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 03/2100Z 15.1N 141.0W 25 KT 12HR VT 04/0600Z 15.4N 142.5W 30 KT 24HR VT 04/1800Z 15.6N 144.5W 35 KT 36HR VT 05/0600Z 15.8N 146.3W 35 KT 48HR VT 05/1800Z 15.9N 147.9W 30 KT 72HR VT 06/1800Z 16.1N 151.5W 25 KT 96HR VT 07/1800Z 16.3N 155.5W 25 KT 120HR VT 08/1800Z 16.4N 160.0W 20 KT $$ ** WTPA42 PHFO 032140 CCB *** TCDCP2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-C DISCUSSION NUMBER 1...CORRECTED NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI 1140 AM HST WED AUG 03 2005 CLARIFY PATH OF ONE C IN LAST PART OF DISCUSSION TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-C HAS FORMED FAR TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE CONSIDERED TO BE NEAR 25 KNOTS. ITS CLOUD STRUCTURE HAS BECOME MORE WELL DEFINED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AND IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE NONSHEAR WIND ENVIRONMENT. SST UNDER THE DEPRESSION IS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE AT 26 DEGREES C. HOWEVER THE UPPER LEVEL WIND PATTERN BECOMES QUITE WESTERLY AND NORTHWESTERLY AND SHOULD PROVIDE EFFECTIVE SHEARING ALOFT IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. THUS WILL STRENGTHEN ONE C TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH IN 24 HOURS AND THEN WEAKEN IT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE PATH SHOULD BECOME DIRECTLY TOWARD THE WEST AFTER INITIALLY MOVING TOWARD THE WESTNORTHWEST...A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF ONE C IS RESPONSIBLE. FORECASTER MATSUDA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 03/2100Z 15.1N 141.0W 25 KT 12HR VT 04/0600Z 15.4N 142.5W 30 KT 24HR VT 04/1800Z 15.6N 144.5W 35 KT 36HR VT 05/0600Z 15.8N 146.3W 35 KT 48HR VT 05/1800Z 15.9N 147.9W 30 KT 72HR VT 06/1800Z 16.1N 151.5W 25 KT 96HR VT 07/1800Z 16.3N 155.5W 25 KT 120HR VT 08/1800Z 16.4N 160.0W 20 KT $$ ** WTJP32 RJTD 032100 *** WARNING 032100. WARNING VALID 042100. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0509 MATSA (0509) 955 HPA AT 22.8N 125.1E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 07 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 325 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 260 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 040900UTC AT 24.5N 124.3E WITH 60 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 945 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 042100UTC AT 26.0N 123.5E WITH 90 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 940 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 032100 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0509 MATSA (0509) ANALYSIS PSTN 032100UTC 22.8N 125.1E GOOD MOVE NNW 07KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 080KT 50KT 90NM 30KT 325NM SOUTH 260NM NORTH FORECAST 24HF 042100UTC 26.0N 123.5E 90NM 70% MOVE NNW 08KT PRES 940HPA MXWD 085KT 45HF 051800UTC 28.7N 122.8E 150NM 70% MOVE NNW 07KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT 69HF 061800UTC 32.5N 122.2E 220NM 70% MOVE N 09KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT = ** WTPH20 RPMM 031800 *** TTT TYPHOON WARNING 15 AT 1W800 03 AUGUST, TYPHOON (MATSA)(0509) WAS LOCATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT TWO TWO POINT THREE NORTH ONE TWO FIVE POINT FIVE EAST FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH NORTHWEST AT ZERO FOUR METERS PER SOCOND ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN FOUR FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS SOUTH SEMICIRCLE THREE FIVE ZERO SEVEN HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS THREE EIGHT METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER TWO FIVE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN ONE TWO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS SOUTH SEMICIRCLE THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS ELSEWHERE FORECAST POSITIONS AT 041800 TWO FIVE POINT FIVE NORTH ONE TWO FOUR POINT EIGHT EAST AND AT 051800 TWO NINE POINT ZERO NORTH ONE TWO FOUR POINT ZERO EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE-HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 032200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY MATSA 0509 (0509) INITIAL TIME 032200 UTC 00HR 22.8N 125.0E 955HPA 40M/S 30KTS 600KM 50KTS 200KM P12HR NW 15KM/H= ** WTPN31 PHNC 032200 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01C WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN CENTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 031800Z --- NEAR 15.1N 141.0W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT REPEAT POSIT: 15.1N 141.0W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 040600Z --- 15.4N 142.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 041800Z --- 15.6N 144.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 050600Z --- 15.8N 146.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 051800Z --- 15.9N 147.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 061800Z --- 16.1N 151.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 071800Z --- 16.3N 155.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 081800Z --- 16.4N 160.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT --- REMARKS: 032200Z POSITION NEAR 15.2N 141.5W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031800Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 040400Z, 041000Z, 041600Z AND 042200Z.// ** WTPQ20 BABJ 032300 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY MATSA 0509 (0509) INITIAL TIME 032300 UTC 00HR 22.9N 125.0E 955HPA 40M/S 30KTS 600KM 50KTS 200KM P12HR NW 15KM/H= ** WTPN31 PHNC 032200 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01C WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN CENTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 031800Z --- NEAR 15.1N 141.0W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT REPEAT POSIT: 15.1N 141.0W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 040600Z --- 15.4N 142.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 041800Z --- 15.6N 144.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 050600Z --- 15.8N 146.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 051800Z --- 15.9N 147.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 061800Z --- 16.1N 151.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 071800Z --- 16.3N 155.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS --- ** WTPN31 PHNC 032200 RRB *** 120 HRS, VALID AT: 081800Z --- 16.4N 160.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT --- REMARKS: 032200Z POSITION NEAR 15.2N 141.5W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031800Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 040400Z, 041000Z, 041600Z AND 042200Z.// ** WTPN31 PHNC 032200 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01C WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN CENTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 031800Z --- NEAR 15.1N 141.0W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT REPEAT POSIT: 15.1N 141.0W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 040600Z --- 15.4N 142.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 041800Z --- 15.6N 144.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 050600Z --- 15.8N 146.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 051800Z --- 15.9N 147.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 061800Z --- 16.1N 151.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 071800Z --- 16.3N 155.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 081800Z --- 16.4N 160.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT --- REMARKS: 032200Z POSITION NEAR 15.2N 141.5W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031800Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 040400Z, 041000Z, 041600Z AND 042200Z.// ** WTPH RPLL 031800 *** TTT TYPHOON WARNING 15 AT 1800 03 AUGUST, TYPHOON (MATSA) (0509) WAS LOCATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT 22.3N 125.5E FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH NORTHWEST AT 04MPS ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN 450KMS RADIUS SOUTH SEMICIRCLE 350KMS RADIUS ELSEWHERE ESTI- MATED CENTRAL PRESSURE 967 HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS 38MPS NEAR CENTER 25MPS WITHIN 120KMS RADIUS FROM CENTER 13MPS WITHIN 450KMS RADIUS SOUTH SEMICIRCLE 350KMS RADIUS ELSEWHERE FORECAST POSITIONS AT 041800 25.5N 124.8E AND AT 051800 29.0N 124.0E ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND 3-HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD= ** WTNT33 KNHC 032337 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM HARVEY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM AST WED AUG 03 2005 ...HARVEY HEADING TOWARD BERMUDA... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 8 PM AST...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HARVEY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 66.5 WEST OR ABOUT 130 MILES... 210 KM... WEST-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA. HARVEY IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 10 MPH ...17 KM/HR. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF HARVEY SHOULD PASS VERY NEAR BERMUDA THURSDAY MORNING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 60 MPH... 95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT HARVEY COULD REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE PASSING BY BERMUDA. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN BERMUDA IN ASSOCIATION WITH HARVEY. REPEATING THE 8 PM AST POSITION...31.3 N... 66.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 998 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM AST. FORECASTER AVILA $$