** WTPQ20 BABJ 031200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY MATSA 0509 (0509) INITIAL TIME 031200 UTC 00HR 21.8N 125.7E 960HPA 40M/S 30KTS 600KM 50KTS 200KM P12HR NW 15KM/H P+24HR 24.6N 123.7E 950HPA 45M/S P+48HR 27.0N 122.6E 940HPA 50M/S P+72HR 29.8N 122.0E 950HPA 45M/S= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 031200 CCA *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY MATSA 0509 (0509) INITIAL TIME 031200 UTC 00HR 21.8N 125.7E 960HPA 40M/S 30KTS 600KM 50KTS 200KM P12HR NW 15KM/H P+24HR 24.6N 123.7E 950HPA 45M/S P+48HR 27.0N 122.6E 940HPA 50M/S P+72HR 29.8N 122.0E 950HPA 45M/S= ** WTJP22 RJTD 031200 *** WARNING 031200. WARNING VALID 041200. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0509 MATSA (0509) 960 HPA AT 21.8N 125.8E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING NORTH 07 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 80 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 325 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 240 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 040000UTC AT 23.2N 125.2E WITH 60 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 041200UTC AT 24.3N 124.6E WITH 90 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 940 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 051200UTC AT 27.3N 124.0E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 940 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 061200UTC AT 31.0N 123.8E WITH 220 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 031200 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0509 MATSA (0509) ANALYSIS PSTN 031200UTC 21.8N 125.8E GOOD MOVE N 07KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 50KT 80NM 30KT 325NM SOUTH 240NM NORTH FORECAST 24HF 041200UTC 24.3N 124.6E 90NM 70% MOVE NNW 06KT PRES 940HPA MXWD 085KT 48HF 051200UTC 27.3N 124.0E 150NM 70% MOVE NNW 07KT PRES 940HPA MXWD 085KT 72HF 061200UTC 31.0N 123.8E 220NM 70% MOVE N 09KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 031300 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY MATSA 0509 (0509) INITIAL TIME 031300 UTC 00HR 21.8N 125.7E 960HPA 40M/S 30KTS 600KM 50KTS 200KM P12HR NW 15KM/H= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 031400 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY MATSA 0509 (0509) INITIAL TIME 031400 UTC 00HR 21.9N 125.6E 960HPA 40M/S 30KTS 600KM 50KTS 200KM P12HR NW 15KM/H= ** WTPN32 PGTW 031500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 09W (MATSA) WARNING NR 015 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 031200Z --- NEAR 21.7N 125.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 21.7N 125.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 040000Z --- 22.8N 124.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 041200Z --- 23.9N 124.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 050000Z --- 25.0N 123.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 051200Z --- 26.3N 123.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 061200Z --- 29.3N 122.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 071200Z --- 32.4N 122.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 081200Z --- 36.0N 121.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT --- REMARKS: 031500Z POSITION NEAR 22.0N 125.4E. TYPHOON (TY) 09W (MATSA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 285 NM SOUTH- SOUTHWEST OF OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE DEEPEST CONVECTION ON THE SOUTHERN QUADRANTS OF THE STORM WITH LIMITED CONVECTION ON THE NORTHERN HALF. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031200Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 032100Z, 040300Z, 040900Z AND041500Z.// ** WTNT33 KNHC 031428 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM HARVEY ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM AST WED AUG 03 2005 ...DEPRESSION BECOMES EIGHTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HARVEY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.8 NORTH... LONGITUDE 68.0 WEST OR ABOUT 215 MILES... 345 KM... WEST-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA. HARVEY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 10 MPH ...17 KM/HR. A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL BE INVESTIGATING HARVEY THIS AFTERNOON. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES ...110 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN BERMUDA IN ASSOCIATION WITH HARVEY. REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...30.8 N... 68.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM AST. FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT43 KNHC 031430 *** TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM HARVEY DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT WED AUG 03 2005 WHILE THE CYCLONE STILL HAS SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS... INCLUDING THE LARGE BAND WELL REMOVED FROM THE CENTER TO THE NORTH AND EAST...THE DEFINITION OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER HAS IMPROVED SINCE YESTERDAY. A QUIKSCAT PASS AT 1036Z INDICATED A LARGE AREA OF UNFLAGGED 30 KT WINDS...WITH QUITE A FEW UNFLAGGED 35 KT VECTORS IN THE RELATIVELY DRY SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. STORM INTENSITY IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY A 35 KT REPORT FROM SHIP W6SOT AT 12Z NEAR THE CENTER...AND BY A T2.5 DVORAK CLASSIFICATION FROM TAFB. A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL BE INVESTIGATING HARVEY THIS AFTERNOON. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW JUST TO THE SOUTH OF HARVEY IS PRODUCING EASTERLY SHEAR AND SUBSIDENCE IN THE CYCLONE'S EASTERN QUADRANT. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LOW WILL DIMINISH...BUT THE GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS MODERATE WESTERLY SHEAR WILL OVERTAKE THE CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD IN A DAY OR SO WHERE THE SHEAR RELAXES AND PERMITS SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 030/9. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST THINKING. A MID-TROPOSPHERIC SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY NEAR THE CANADIAN MARITIMES IS EXPECTED TO MOVE AHEAD OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE AND THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE SHOULD BE NEARING THE LONGITUDE OF THE CYCLONE IN ABOUT 72 HOURS. ALTHOUGH NEITHER OF THESE TROUGHS HAVE SUFFICIENT AMPLITUDE TO PULL HARVEY INTO THE MID-LATITUDES...THE GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO STEER THE TROPICAL CYCLONE ON A NORTHEASTERLY TO EAST-NORTHEASTERLY TRACK OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD. TRACK GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HARVEY IS THE EARLIEST-FORMING EIGHTH TROPICAL STORM ON RECORD. IN THOSE YEARS THAT HAVE HAD AT LEAST EIGHT STORMS...WHICH IS ONLY ABOUT HALF OF ALL SEASONS SINCE 1851...THE MEAN DATE OF FORMATION FOR THE EIGHTH STORM IS SEPTEMBER 29TH. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 03/1500Z 30.8N 68.0W 35 KT 12HR VT 04/0000Z 31.8N 66.6W 40 KT 24HR VT 04/1200Z 32.6N 64.3W 45 KT 36HR VT 05/0000Z 33.3N 61.7W 40 KT 48HR VT 05/1200Z 34.0N 59.5W 35 KT 72HR VT 06/1200Z 35.5N 56.0W 35 KT 96HR VT 07/1200Z 38.0N 51.0W 30 KT 120HR VT 08/1200Z 41.0N 45.0W 30 KT $$ ** WTNT23 KNHC 031430 *** TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM HARVEY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082005 1500Z WED AUG 03 2005 A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.8N 68.0W AT 03/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 45NE 60SE 45SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.8N 68.0W AT 03/1500Z AT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.4N 68.2W FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 31.8N 66.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 32.6N 64.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 33.3N 61.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 34.0N 59.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 35.5N 56.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 38.0N 51.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 41.0N 45.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.8N 68.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/2100Z FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT33 KNHC 031431 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM HARVEY ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM AST WED AUG 03 2005 ...DEPRESSION BECOMES EIGHTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HARVEY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.8 NORTH... LONGITUDE 68.0 WEST OR ABOUT 215 MILES... 345 KM... WEST-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA. HARVEY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 10 MPH ...17 KM/HR. A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL BE INVESTIGATING HARVEY THIS AFTERNOON. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES ...110 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN BERMUDA IN ASSOCIATION WITH HARVEY. REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...30.8 N... 68.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM AST. FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT73 KNHC 031431 *** SPFAT3 TROPICAL STORM HARVEY PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM AST WED AUG 03 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HARVEY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.0 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8AM AST SAT AUG 6 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 32.6N 64.3W 22 2 X 1 25 BERMUDA 26 1 X X 27 33.3N 61.7W 1 13 3 1 18 SABLE ISLAND NS X X X 2 2 34.0N 59.5W X 4 8 3 15 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM THU FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8AM THU TO 8PM THU C FROM 8PM THU TO 8AM FRI D FROM 8AM FRI TO 8AM SAT E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM SAT X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTPN32 PGTW 031500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 09W (MATSA) WARNING NR 015 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 031200Z --- NEAR 21.7N 125.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 21.7N 125.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 040000Z --- 22.8N 124.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 041200Z --- 23.9N 124.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 050000Z --- 25.0N 123.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 051200Z --- 26.3N 123.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 061200Z --- 29.3N 122.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 071200Z --- 32.4N 122.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 081200Z --- 36.0N 121.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT --- REMARKS: 031500Z POSITION NEAR 22.0N 125.4E. TYPHOON (TY) 09W (MATSA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 285 NM SOUTH- SOUTHWEST OF OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE DEEPEST CONVECTION ON THE SOUTHERN QUADRANTS OF THE STORM WITH LIMITED CONVECTION ON THE NORTHERN HALF. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031200Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 032100Z, 040300Z, 040900Z AND041500Z.// ** WTPN32 PGTW 031500 RRC *** 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 051200Z --- 26.3N 123.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 061200Z --- 29.3N 122.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT ** WTPN32 PGTW 031500 RRB *** 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 041200Z --- 23.9N 124.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 050000Z --- 25.0N 123.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT ** WTPN32 PGTW 031500 RRD *** 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 071200Z --- 32.4N 122.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 081200Z --- 36.0N 121.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT --- REMARKS: 031500Z POSITION NEAR 22.0N 125.4E. TYPHOON (TY) 09W (MATSA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 285 NM SOUTH- SOUTHWEST OF OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE DEEPEST CONVECTION ON THE SOUTHERN QUADRANTS OF THE STORM WITH LIMITED CONVECTION ON THE NORTHERN HALF. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031200Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 032100Z, 040300Z, 040900Z AND041500Z.// ** WTPN32 PGTW 031500 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 09W (MATSA) WARNING NR 015 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 031200Z --- NEAR 21.7N 125.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 21.7N 125.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 040000Z --- 22.8N 124.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT ** WTPQ20 BABJ 031500 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY MATSA 0509 (0509) INITIAL TIME 031500 UTC 00HR 22.1N 125.5E 960HPA 40M/S 30KTS 600KM 50KTS 200KM P12HR NW 15KM/H= ** WTPN32 PGTW 031500 RRD *** 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 071200Z --- 32.4N 122.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 081200Z --- 36.0N 121.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT --- REMARKS: 031500Z POSITION NEAR 22.0N 125.4E. TYPHOON (TY) 09W (MATSA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 285 NM SOUTH- SOUTHWEST OF OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE DEEPEST CONVECTION ON THE SOUTHERN QUADRANTS OF THE STORM WITH LIMITED CONVECTION ON THE NORTHERN HALF. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031200Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 032100Z, 040300Z, 040900Z AND041500Z.// ** WTPQ20 BABJ 031500 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY MATSA 0509 (0509) INITIAL TIME 031500 UTC 00HR 22.1N 125.5E 960HPA 40M/S 30KTS 600KM 50KTS 200KM P12HR NW 15KM/H= ** WTPH RPLL 031200 *** TTT TYPHOON WARNING 14 AT 1200 03 AUGUST, TYPHOON (MATSA) (0509) WAS LOCATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT 21.7N 125.6E FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH NORTHWEST AT 04MPS ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN 450KMS RADIUS SOUTH SEMICIRCLE 350KMS RADIUS ELSEWHERE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE 967 HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS 38MPS NEAR CENTER 25MPS WITHIN 120KMS RADIUS FROM CENTER 13MPS WITHIN 450KMS RADIUS SOUTH SEMICIRCLE 350KMS RADIUS ELSEWHERE FORECAST POSITIONS AT 041200 24.5N 123.8E AND AT 051200 27.6N 123.0E ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND 3-HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA= ** WTJP32 RJTD 031500 *** WARNING 031500. WARNING VALID 041500. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0509 MATSA (0509) 960 HPA AT 22.1N 125.5E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 07 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 80 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 325 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 260 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 040300UTC AT 23.4N 124.8E WITH 60 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 041500UTC AT 24.4N 124.2E WITH 90 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 940 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 031500 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0509 MATSA (0509) ANALYSIS PSTN 031500UTC 22.1N 125.5E GOOD MOVE NNW 07KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 50KT 80NM 30KT 325NM SOUTH 260NM NORTH FORECAST 24HF 041500UTC 24.4N 124.2E 90NM 70% MOVE NNW SLOWLY PRES 940HPA MXWD 085KT 45HF 051200UTC 27.3N 124.0E 150NM 70% MOVE NNW 07KT PRES 940HPA MXWD 085KT 69HF 061200UTC 31.0N 123.8E 220NM 70% MOVE N 09KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT = ** WTPH20 RPMM 031200 *** TTT TYPHOON WARNING 14 AT 1200 03 AUGUST, TYPHOON (MATSA)(0509) WAS LOCATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT TWO ONE POINT SEVEN NORTH ONE TWO FIVE POINT SIX EAST FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH NORTHWEST AT ZERO FOUR METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN FOUR FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS SOUTH SEMICIRCLE THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS ELSEWHERE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE SIX SEVEN HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS THREE EIGHT METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER TWO FIVE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN ONE TWO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN FOUR FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS SOUTH SEMICIRCLE THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS ELSEWHERE FORECAST POSITIONS AT 041200 TWO FOUR POINT FIVE NORTH ONE TWO THREE POINT EIGHT EAST AND AT 051200 TWO SEVEN POINT SIX NORTH ONE TWO THREE POINT ZERO EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE-HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA= ** WTPN32 PGTW 031500 RRD *** 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 071200Z --- 32.4N 122.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 081200Z --- 36.0N 121.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT --- REMARKS: 031500Z POSITION NEAR 22.0N 125.4E. TYPHOON (TY) 09W (MATSA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 285 NM SOUTH- SOUTHWEST OF OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE DEEPEST CONVECTION ON THE SOUTHERN QUADRANTS OF THE STORM WITH LIMITED CONVECTION ON THE NORTHERN HALF. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031200Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 032100Z, 040300Z, 040900Z AND041500Z.// ** WTPQ20 BABJ 031600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY MATSA 0509 (0509) INITIAL TIME 031600 UTC 00HR 22.1N 125.5E 960HPA 40M/S 30KTS 600KM 50KTS 200KM P12HR NW 15KM/H= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 031600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY MATSA 0509 (0509) INITIAL TIME 031600 UTC 00HR 22.1N 125.5E 960HPA 40M/S 30KTS 600KM 50KTS 200KM P12HR NW 15KM/H= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 031700 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY MATSA 0509 (0509) INITIAL TIME 031700 UTC 00HR 22.3N 125.5E 960HPA 40M/S 30KTS 600KM 50KTS 200KM P12HR NW 15KM/H= ** WTNT80 EGRR 031744 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 03.08.2005 TROPICAL STORM ANALYSED IN THE MODEL AT POSITION : 14.3N 117.8W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 03.08.2005 14.3N 117.8W WEAK 00UTC 04.08.2005 14.7N 118.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 04.08.2005 16.1N 119.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 05.08.2005 17.2N 120.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 05.08.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM HARVEY ANALYSED POSITION : 30.4N 68.5W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL082005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 03.08.2005 30.4N 68.5W MODERATE 00UTC 04.08.2005 30.6N 66.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 04.08.2005 31.8N 64.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 05.08.2005 31.9N 61.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 05.08.2005 32.2N 59.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 06.08.2005 32.7N 57.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 06.08.2005 32.8N 56.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 07.08.2005 33.1N 54.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 07.08.2005 37.2N 49.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 08.08.2005 38.2N 48.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 08.08.2005 39.3N 45.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 09.08.2005 40.3N 42.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 09.08.2005 41.2N 40.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE TROPICAL STORM ANALYSED IN THE MODEL AT POSITION : 12.5N 27.8W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 03.08.2005 12.5N 27.8W WEAK 00UTC 04.08.2005 13.6N 28.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 04.08.2005 14.6N 31.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 05.08.2005 15.3N 34.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 05.08.2005 16.2N 37.0W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 06.08.2005 17.0N 39.1W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 06.08.2005 17.8N 40.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 07.08.2005 18.7N 41.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 07.08.2005 19.6N 43.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 08.08.2005 20.5N 45.3W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 08.08.2005 21.3N 47.0W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 09.08.2005 22.0N 48.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 09.08.2005 22.9N 50.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 031744 ** WTNT33 KNHC 031753 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM HARVEY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM AST WED AUG 03 2005 ...HARVEY MOVING TOWARDS BERMUDA... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 2 PM AST...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HARVEY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.9 NORTH... LONGITUDE 67.6 WEST OR ABOUT 200 MILES... 320 KM... WEST-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA. HARVEY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR... AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS ABOUT TO REACH THE CENTER OF HARVEY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES ...110 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN BERMUDA IN ASSOCIATION WITH HARVEY. REPEATING THE 2 PM AST POSITION...30.9 N... 67.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM AST. FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT80 EGRR 031744 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 03.08.2005 TROPICAL STORM ANALYSED IN THE MODEL AT POSITION : 14.3N 117.8W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 03.08.2005 14.3N 117.8W WEAK 00UTC 04.08.2005 14.7N 118.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 04.08.2005 16.1N 119.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 05.08.2005 17.2N 120.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 05.08.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM HARVEY ANALYSED POSITION : 30.4N 68.5W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL082005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 03.08.2005 30.4N 68.5W MODERATE 00UTC 04.08.2005 30.6N 66.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 04.08.2005 31.8N 64.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 05.08.2005 31.9N 61.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 05.08.2005 32.2N 59.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 06.08.2005 32.7N 57.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 06.08.2005 32.8N 56.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 07.08.2005 33.1N 54.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 07.08.2005 37.2N 49.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 08.08.2005 38.2N 48.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 08.08.2005 39.3N 45.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 09.08.2005 40.3N 42.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 09.08.2005 41.2N 40.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE TROPICAL STORM ANALYSED IN THE MODEL AT POSITION : 12.5N 27.8W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 03.08.2005 12.5N 27.8W WEAK 00UTC 04.08.2005 13.6N 28.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 04.08.2005 14.6N 31.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 05.08.2005 15.3N 34.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 05.08.2005 16.2N 37.0W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 06.08.2005 17.0N 39.1W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 06.08.2005 17.8N 40.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 07.08.2005 18.7N 41.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 07.08.2005 19.6N 43.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 08.08.2005 20.5N 45.3W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 08.08.2005 21.3N 47.0W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 09.08.2005 22.0N 48.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 09.08.2005 22.9N 50.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 031744