** WTIN20 DEMS 030627 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS -RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 03-08-2005(.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) INTENSE CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER NORTH AND ADJOINING CENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL AND NORTH ANDAMAN SEA. RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 30.0 DEG NORTH OVER INDIAN REGION (.) ------ ** WTPQ20 BABJ 030600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY MATSA 0509 (0509) INITIAL TIME 030600 UTC 00HR 21.1N 126.0E 960HPA 40M/S 30KTS 600KM 50KTS 200KM P12HR NW 20KM/H P+24HR 24.0N 124.0E 950HPA 45M/S P+48HR 26.4N 123.0E 940HPA 50M/S P+72HR 29.2N 122.0E 940HPA 50M/S= ** WTJP22 RJTD 030600 *** WARNING 030600. WARNING VALID 040600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0509 MATSA (0509) 960 HPA AT 21.1N 126.0E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING NORTHWEST 07 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 80 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND 260 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 040600UTC AT 23.5N 124.4E WITH 90 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 940 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 050600UTC AT 26.3N 123.8E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 940 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 060600UTC AT 29.5N 123.2E WITH 220 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 030600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0509 MATSA (0509) ANALYSIS PSTN 030600UTC 21.1N 126.0E FAIR MOVE NW 07KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 50KT 80NM 30KT 300NM SOUTHWEST 260NM NORTHEAST FORECAST 24HF 040600UTC 23.5N 124.4E 90NM 70% MOVE NW 06KT PRES 940HPA MXWD 085KT 48HF 050600UTC 26.3N 123.8E 150NM 70% MOVE NNW 07KT PRES 940HPA MXWD 085KT 72HF 060600UTC 29.5N 123.2E 220NM 70% MOVE N 08KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT = ** WTKO20 RKSL 030600 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 4 NAME TY 0509 MATSA ANALYSIS POSITION 030600UTC 21.1N 126.0E MOVEMENT NW 7KT PRES/VMAX 965HPA 74KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 040600UTC 23.2N 124.6E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 950HPA 84KT 48HR POSITION 050600UTC 25.7N 123.4E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 950HPA 84KT 72HR POSITION 060600UTC 28.6N 122.6E WITHIN 215NM PRES/VMAX 955HPA 80KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPQ31 RJTD 030600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 8 FOR TY 0509 MATSA (0509) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 030600 UTC IS FAIR. TY WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN DECELERAT E. TY WILL MOVE NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN MOVE GRADUALLY TO NORTH. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TY WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 6.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPN32 PGTW 030900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 09W (MATSA) WARNING NR 014 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 030600Z --- NEAR 21.2N 126.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 21.2N 126.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 031800Z --- 22.4N 124.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 040600Z --- 23.6N 124.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 041800Z --- 24.9N 123.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 050600Z --- 26.2N 123.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 060600Z --- 28.9N 122.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 070600Z --- 31.7N 121.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 080600Z --- 34.5N 121.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT --- REMARKS: 030900Z POSITION NEAR 21.5N 125.7E. TYPHOON (TY) 09W (MATSA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 305 NM SOUTH- SOUTHWEST OF OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030600Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 031500Z, 032100Z, 040300Z AND 040900Z.// ** WTPN32 PGTW 030900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 09W (MATSA) WARNING NR 014 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 030600Z --- NEAR 21.2N 126.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 21.2N 126.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 031800Z --- 22.4N 124.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 040600Z --- 23.6N 124.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 041800Z --- 24.9N 123.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 050600Z --- 26.2N 123.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 060600Z --- 28.9N 122.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 070600Z --- 31.7N 121.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 080600Z --- 34.5N 121.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT --- REMARKS: 030900Z POSITION NEAR 21.5N 125.7E. TYPHOON (TY) 09W (MATSA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 305 NM SOUTH- SOUTHWEST OF OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030600Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 031500Z, 032100Z, 040300Z AND 040900Z.// ** WTPN32 PGTW 030900 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 09W (MATSA) WARNING NR 014 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 030600Z --- NEAR 21.2N 126.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 21.2N 126.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 031800Z --- 22.4N 124.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT ** WTPN32 PGTW 030900 RRB *** 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 040600Z --- 23.6N 124.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 041800Z --- 24.9N 123.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT ** WTPN32 PGTW 030900 RRD *** 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 070600Z --- 31.7N 121.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 080600Z --- 34.5N 121.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT --- REMARKS: 030900Z POSITION NEAR 21.5N 125.7E. TYPHOON (TY) 09W (MATSA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 305 NM SOUTH- SOUTHWEST OF OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030600Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 031500Z, 032100Z, 040300Z AND 040900Z.// ** WTPN32 PGTW 030900 RRC *** 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 050600Z --- 26.2N 123.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 060600Z --- 28.9N 122.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT ** WTNT23 KNHC 030840 *** TCMAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082005 0900Z WED AUG 03 2005 A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.9N 68.5W AT 03/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 175SE 0SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.9N 68.5W AT 03/0900Z AT 03/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.5N 68.6W FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 30.8N 67.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 0SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 32.1N 65.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 25SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 33.1N 62.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 25SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 33.7N 60.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 25SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 34.5N 55.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 25SW 75NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 36.0N 51.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 38.0N 47.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.9N 68.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/1500Z FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTNT33 KNHC 030841 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM AST WED AUG 03 2005 ...DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.9 NORTH... LONGITUDE 68.5 WEST OR ABOUT 275 MILES... 440 KM... SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH ...15 KM/HR...AND A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN BERMUDA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE DEPRESSION. REPEATING THE 5 AM AST POSITION...29.9 N... 68.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 AM AST. FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTNT73 KNHC 030841 *** SPFAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM AST WED AUG 03 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE DEPRESSION CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.5 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2AM AST SAT AUG 6 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 32.1N 65.3W 29 2 X X 31 33.7N 60.0W X 2 11 3 16 33.1N 62.7W 1 16 3 1 21 BERMUDA 20 7 X 1 28 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM THU FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2AM THU TO 2PM THU C FROM 2PM THU TO 2AM FRI D FROM 2AM FRI TO 2AM SAT E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM SAT X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTNT43 KNHC 030846 *** TCDAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT WED AUG 03 2005 THERE HAS BEEN A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE CURVATURE OF THE CONVECTIVE BAND OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION...BUT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER REMAINS EXPOSED TO THE SOUTH OF THE PRIMARY AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK T-NUMBERS USING A SHEAR OR CURVED BAND PATTERN ARE 2.0 FROM TAFB AND SAB..AND 1.5 FROM AFWA. 3- AND 6-HOURLY AVERAGE OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN CIMSS ARE NEAR 2.0. THERE ARE NO SHIP OBSERVATIONS OF SURFACE WINDS TO HELP ESTIMATE THE STRENGTH OF THE CYCLONE. BASED ON THE SATELLITE DATA...THE SYSTEM IS NOT BEING UPGRADED AT THIS TIME. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SHEAR AND SUBSIDENCE. 200 MB GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LOW WILL DIMINISH...BUT THE GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS MODERATE SHEAR CONTINUING TO AFFECT THE DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HISTORICALLY... TROPICAL CYCLONES AT HIGHER LATITUDES HAVE BEEN MORE RESILIENT TO SHEAR THAN THOSE IN THE DEEP TROPICS. THIS IS PROBABLY WHY THE STATISTICAL/DYNAMICAL SHIPS MODEL PREDICTS STRENGTHENING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...LIKE THE PREVIOUS ONE...SHOWS MODEST INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 020/8. A MID-TROPOSPHERIC SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY NEAR THE CANADIAN MARITIMES IS EXPECTED TO MOVE AHEAD OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE AND THE NEXT...UPSTREAM...SHORTWAVE SHOULD BE NEARING THE LONGITUDE OF THE CYCLONE IN ABOUT 72 HOURS. ALTHOUGH NEITHER OF THESE TROUGHS HAVE SUFFICIENT AMPLITUDE TO PULL THE DEPRESSION/STORM INTO THE MID-LATITUDES...THE GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO STEER THE TROPICAL CYCLONE ON A NORTHEASTERLY TO EAST-NORTHEASTERLY TRACK OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE A SLIGHTLY BETTER INITIALIZATION OF THE DEPRESSION THAN THEY DID EARLIER...AND THEIR TRACK FORECASTS ARE IN SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS QUITE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH 48 HOURS...BUT IT IS FASTER AND TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST AT 3-5 DAYS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE LATEST DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS AT 3-5 DAYS IS EVEN FASTER AND FARTHER TO THE LEFT OF THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 03/0900Z 29.9N 68.5W 30 KT 12HR VT 03/1800Z 30.8N 67.5W 40 KT 24HR VT 04/0600Z 32.1N 65.3W 45 KT 36HR VT 04/1800Z 33.1N 62.7W 40 KT 48HR VT 05/0600Z 33.7N 60.0W 35 KT 72HR VT 06/0600Z 34.5N 55.5W 35 KT 96HR VT 07/0600Z 36.0N 51.5W 30 KT 120HR VT 08/0600Z 38.0N 47.0W 30 KT $$ ** WTPQ20 BABJ 030900 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY MATSA 0509 (0509) INITIAL TIME 030900 UTC 00HR 21.4N 125.7E 960HPA 40M/S 30KTS 600KM 50KTS 200KM P12HR NW 20KM/H P+24HR 24.3N 123.8E 950HPA 45M/S P+48HR 26.6N 122.8E 940HPA 50M/S P+72HR 29.8N 122.0E 940HPA 50M/S= ** WTJP32 RJTD 030900 *** WARNING 030900. WARNING VALID 040900. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0509 MATSA (0509) 960 HPA AT 21.4N 125.9E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 07 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 80 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 325 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 260 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 032100UTC AT 22.7N 125.3E WITH 60 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 040900UTC AT 23.9N 124.5E WITH 90 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 940 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 030900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0509 MATSA (0509) ANALYSIS PSTN 030900UTC 21.4N 125.9E FAIR MOVE NNW 07KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 50KT 80NM 30KT 325NM SOUTH 260NM NORTH FORECAST 24HF 040900UTC 23.9N 124.5E 90NM 70% MOVE NW 07KT PRES 940HPA MXWD 085KT 45HF 050600UTC 26.3N 123.8E 150NM 70% MOVE NNW 07KT PRES 940HPA MXWD 085KT 69HF 060600UTC 29.5N 123.2E 220NM 70% MOVE N 08KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT = ** WTPH20 RPMM 030600 *** TTT TYPHOON WARNING 13 AT 0600 03 AUGUST, TYPHOON (MATSA) {0509} WAS LOCATED BASED SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT TWO ONE POINT ONE NORTH ONE TWO SIX POINT ZERO EAST FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ZERO FOUR METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN FOUR FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS SOUTH SEMICIRCLE THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS ELSEWHERE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE SIX SEVEN HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS THREE EIGHT METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER TWO FIVE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN ONE TWO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN FOUR FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS SOUTH SEMICIRCLE THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS ELSEWHERE FORECAST POSITIONS AT 040600 TWO FOUR POINT ZERO NORTH ONE TWO FOUR POINT FOUR EAST AT 050600 TWO SEVEN POINT THREE NORTH ONE TWO THREE POINT FIVE EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE-HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 031000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY MATSA 0509 (0509) INITIAL TIME 031000 UTC 00HR 21.5N 125.7E 960HPA 40M/S 30KTS 600KM 50KTS 200KM P12HR NW 20KM/H= ** WTPH RPLL 030600 *** TTT TYPHOON WARNING 13 AT 0600 03 AUGUST * TYPHOON (MATSA) (0509) WAS LOCATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACER DATA AT TWO ONE POINT ONE NORTH ONE TWO SIX POINT ZERO EAST FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ZERO FOUR METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN FOUR FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS SOUTH SEMICIRCLE THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS ELSEWHERE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE SIX SEVEN HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS THREE EIGHT METERS PER SECONED NEAR CENTER TWO FIVE METERS PER SECONED WITHIN ONE TWO ZERO METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTE3R TWO FIVE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN ONE TWO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN FOUR FRIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS SOUTH SEMICIRCLE THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS ELSEWHERE FORECAST POSITIONS AT 040600 TWO FOUR POINT ZERO NORTH ONE TWO FOUR POINT FOUR EAST AT 050600 TWO SEVEN POINT THREE NORTH ONE TWO THREE POINT FIVE EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE -HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA ** WTPQ20 BABJ 031100 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY MATSA 0509 (0509) INITIAL TIME 031100 UTC 00HR 21.8N 125.7E 960HPA 40M/S 30KTS 600KM 50KTS 200KM P12HR NW 15KM/H= ** WTNT33 KNHC 031143 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM AST WED AUG 03 2005 ...DEPRESSION CONTINUES NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 8 AM AST...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 68.2 WEST OR ABOUT 250 MILES... 405 KM... WEST-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 10 MPH ...17 KM/HR...AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN BERMUDA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE DEPRESSION. REPEATING THE 8 AM AST POSITION...30.3 N... 68.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM AST. FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$