** WTPQ20 BABJ 030000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY MATSA 0509 (0509) INITIAL TIME 030000 UTC 00HR 20.6N 126.6E 970HPA 35M/S 30KTS 600KM 50KTS 200KM P12HR NW 20KM/H P+24HR 23.4N 124.6E 950HPA 45M/S P+48HR 26.0N 123.4E 940HPA 50M/S P+72HR 28.7N 122.5E 940HPA 50M/S= ** WTJP22 RJTD 030000 *** WARNING 030000. WARNING VALID 040000. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0509 MATSA (0509) 960 HPA AT 20.7N 126.4E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING NORTHWEST 10 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 80 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND 260 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 040000UTC AT 23.5N 124.1E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 940 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 050000UTC AT 25.5N 123.0E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 940 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 060000UTC AT 27.8N 122.4E WITH 220 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 030000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0509 MATSA (0509) ANALYSIS PSTN 030000UTC 20.7N 126.4E FAIR MOVE NW 10KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 50KT 80NM 30KT 300NM SOUTHWEST 260NM NORTHEAST FORECAST 24HF 040000UTC 23.5N 124.1E 80NM 70% MOVE NW 08KT PRES 940HPA MXWD 085KT 48HF 050000UTC 25.5N 123.0E 150NM 70% MOVE NNW SLOWLY PRES 940HPA MXWD 085KT 72HF 060000UTC 27.8N 122.4E 220NM 70% MOVE NNW SLOWLY PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT = ** WTPQ31 RJTD 030000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 7 FOR TY 0509 MATSA (0509) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 030000 UTC IS FAIR. TY WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN DECELERAT E. TY WILL MOVE NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN MOVE GRADUALLY TO NORTH. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TY WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 6.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPN32 PGTW 030300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 09W (MATSA) WARNING NR 013 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 030000Z --- NEAR 20.6N 126.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 20.6N 126.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 031200Z --- 21.9N 125.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 040000Z --- 23.0N 124.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 041200Z --- 24.1N 124.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 050000Z --- 25.3N 123.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 060000Z --- 28.2N 122.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 070000Z --- 31.0N 121.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 080000Z --- 33.7N 121.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT --- REMARKS: 030300Z POSITION NEAR 20.9N 126.3E. TYPHOON (TY) 09W (MATSA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 325 NM SOUTH OF OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030000Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 030900Z, 031500Z, 032100Z AND 040300Z.// ** WTPN32 PGTW 030300 RRC *** 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 050000Z --- 25.3N 123.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 060000Z --- 28.2N 122.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT ** WTPN32 PGTW 030300 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 09W (MATSA) WARNING NR 013 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 030000Z --- NEAR 20.6N 126.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 20.6N 126.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 031200Z --- 21.9N 125.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT ** WTPN32 PGTW 030300 RRB *** 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 040000Z --- 23.0N 124.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 041200Z --- 24.1N 124.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT ** WTPN32 PGTW 030300 RRD *** 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 070000Z --- 31.0N 121.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 080000Z --- 33.7N 121.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT --- REMARKS: 030300Z POSITION NEAR 20.9N 126.3E. TYPHOON (TY) 09W (MATSA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 325 NM SOUTH OF OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030000Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 030900Z, 031500Z, 032100Z AND 040300Z.// ** WTPN32 PGTW 030300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 09W (MATSA) WARNING NR 013 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 030000Z --- NEAR 20.6N 126.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 20.6N 126.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 031200Z --- 21.9N 125.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 040000Z --- 23.0N 124.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 041200Z --- 24.1N 124.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 050000Z --- 25.3N 123.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 060000Z --- 28.2N 122.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 070000Z --- 31.0N 121.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 080000Z --- 33.7N 121.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT --- REMARKS: 030300Z POSITION NEAR 20.9N 126.3E. TYPHOON (TY) 09W (MATSA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 325 NM SOUTH OF OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030000Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 030900Z, 031500Z, 032100Z AND 040300Z.// ** WTNT23 KNHC 030239 *** TCMAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082005 0300Z WED AUG 03 2005 A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.4N 68.5W AT 03/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 175SE 0SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.4N 68.5W AT 03/0300Z AT 03/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.9N 68.7W FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 30.4N 67.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 0SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 31.7N 66.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 25SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 32.8N 63.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 25SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 33.6N 61.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 25SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 34.0N 57.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 25SW 75NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 34.5N 54.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 35.0N 51.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.4N 68.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0900Z FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT33 KNHC 030245 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM AST TUE AUG 02 2005 ...DEPRESSION MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD... EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AND TURN NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD BERMUDA... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA... PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 11 PM AST... 0300Z... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE 68.5 WEST OR ABOUT 295 MILES... 480 KM... SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH... 15 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM OVERNIGHT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN BERMUDA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE DEPRESSION. REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...29.4 N... 68.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM AST. FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT73 KNHC 030248 *** SPFAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM AST TUE AUG 02 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE DEPRESSION CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.5 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8PM AST FRI AUG 5 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 31.7N 66.2W 30 2 X X 32 33.6N 61.1W X 2 11 3 16 32.8N 63.9W 1 16 3 1 21 BERMUDA 5 17 1 X 23 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM WED FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8PM WED TO 8AM THU C FROM 8AM THU TO 8PM THU D FROM 8PM THU TO 8PM FRI E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM FRI X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT43 KNHC 030300 *** TCDAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT TUE AUG 02 2005 THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO IMPOSE SOUTHERLY SHEAR... LEAVING MUCH OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION EXPOSED. THE PRIMARY CONCENTRATION OF CONVECTION HAS BEEN PERSISTING NORTH OF THE CENTER... WITH A DISJOINTED BAND OF CONVECTION EXTENDING TO THE SOUTHEAST. LACKING ANY OTHER SOURCE OF RELEVANT DATA THIS EVENING... THE CURRENT INTENSITY HINGES ON SUBJECTIVE INTERPRETATION OF GOES INFRARED IMAGERY. THE LATEST DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 25 KT FROM TAFB BASED ON THE CURVED BANDING... AND 25 KT FROM SAB AND AFWA BASED ON THE SUBTROPICAL APPEARANCE OF THE CLOUD PATTERN. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE ACTUALLY NEAR TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH SINCE THE LOW LEVEL CENTER APPEARS TO BE JUST A SHORT DISTANCE SOUTH OF THE CONCENTRATED CONVECTION... PERHAPS WORTHY OF A T2.5/35 KT DVORAK CLASSIFICATION USING A SHEAR PATTERN. HOWEVER... THERE IS SUFFICIENT UNCERTAINTY IN THE LOCATION OF THE LOW LEVEL CENTER TO COMPROMISE BETWEEN ALL OF THESE POSSIBILITIES AND MAINTAIN THE INTENSITY AT 30 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 015/8... CONSTRUCTED WITH THE HELP OF A 01Z SSMI OVERPASS... WHICH A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND WITH A SLIGHTLY GREATER NORTHEASTERLY COMPONENT. THIS APPEARS TO BE THE START OF THE TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AHEAD OF A MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMERGING OFF THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST. EVEN AFTER THAT TROUGH PASSES BY THE TROPICAL CYCLONE... PERSISTENT WESTERLIES SHOULD CONTINUE TO INDUCE AN EASTWARD MOTION LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS INITIALIZE AND FORECAST THE CIRCULATION OF THE DEPRESSION IN A VARIETY OF WAYS... NONE OF WHICH APPEAR TO BE COMPLETELY CONSISTENT WITH RECENT MOTION TRENDS. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY... MAINLY TO BLEND WITH THE SLOWER GFDL AND NOGAPS SOLUTIONS. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO ALSO MOVE EAST BUT SHEAR OUT DURING THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS... BUT THIS WILL LEAVE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN A WESTERLY SHEAR ENVIRONMENT SOMEWHAT PROHIBITIVE FOR TOO MUCH STRENGTHENING. HOWEVER...THE SHEAR COULD BE JUST WEAK ENOUGH... AND THE OCEAN WARM ENOUGH... TO ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO REMAIN A TROPICAL STORM THROUGH ABOUT DAY THREE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE GFDL AND SHIPS GUIDANCE. FORECASTER KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 03/0300Z 29.4N 68.5W 30 KT 12HR VT 03/1200Z 30.4N 67.9W 40 KT 24HR VT 04/0000Z 31.7N 66.2W 45 KT 36HR VT 04/1200Z 32.8N 63.9W 40 KT 48HR VT 05/0000Z 33.6N 61.1W 35 KT 72HR VT 06/0000Z 34.0N 57.0W 35 KT 96HR VT 07/0000Z 34.5N 54.0W 30 KT 120HR VT 08/0000Z 35.0N 51.0W 30 KT $$ ** WTPH20 RPMM 030000 *** T T T TYPHOON WARNING 12 AT 0000 03 AUGUST TYPHOON (MATSA) (0509) UPGRADED FROM SEVERE TROPICAL STORM WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT TWO ZERO POINT SEVEN NORTH ONE TWO SIX POINT FIVE EAST FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ZERO FOUR METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN FOUR FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS ELSEWHERE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE SIX SEVEN HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS THREE EIGHT METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER TWO FIVE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN ONE TWO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN FOUR FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS SOUTH SEMICIRCLE THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS ELSEWHERE FORECAST POSITIONS AT 040000 TWO THREE POINT EIGHT NORTH ONE TWO FOUR POINT FIVE EAST AT 050000 TWO SEVEN POINT ONE NORTH ONE TWO THREE POINT SEVEN EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA= ** WTPH RPLL 030000 *** TTT TYPHOON WARNING 12 AT 0000 03 AUGUST TYPHOON (MATSA) WAS LOCATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT TWO ZERO POINT SEVEN NORTH ONE TWO SIX POINT FIVE EAST FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ZERO FOUR METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO PENOMENAL SERS WITHIN FOUR FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADUIS SOUTH SEMICIRCLE THREE FIVR ZERO KILOMETER RADUIS ELSEWHERE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE SIX SEVEN HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS THREE EIGHT METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER TWO FIVE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN ONE TWO ZERO KILOMETERS RADUIS FROM CENTER ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN FOUR FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS RADUIS SOUTH SEMICIRCLE THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADUIS ELSEWHERE . FORECAST POSITIONS AT 040000 TWO THREE POINT EIGHT NORTH ONE TWO FOUR POINT FIVE EAST AT 050000 TWO SEVEN POINT ONE NORTH ONE TWO THREE POINT SEVEN EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE- HOURLY REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD. WEATHER MANILA ** WTPQ21 RJTD 030300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0509 MATSA (0509) ANALYSIS PSTN 030300UTC 20.7N 126.2E FAIR MOVE WNW 07KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 50KT 80NM 30KT 300NM SOUTHWEST 260NM NORTHEAST FORECAST 24HF 040300UTC 23.4N 123.9E 80NM 70% MOVE NW 07KT PRES 940HPA MXWD 085KT 45HF 050000UTC 25.5N 123.0E 150NM 70% MOVE NNW SLOWLY PRES 940HPA MXWD 085KT 69HF 060000UTC 27.8N 122.4E 220NM 70% MOVE NNW SLOWLY PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 030300 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY MATSA 0509 (0509) INITIAL TIME 030300 UTC 00HR 20.8N 126.3E 960HPA 40M/S 30KTS 600KM 50KTS 200KM P12HR NW 20KM/H= ** WTNT80 EGRR 030526 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 03.08.2005 TROPICAL STORM ANALYSED IN THE MODEL AT POSITION : 13.6N 115.9W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 03.08.2005 13.6N 115.9W WEAK 12UTC 03.08.2005 14.4N 117.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 04.08.2005 14.7N 118.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 04.08.2005 15.8N 119.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 05.08.2005 16.6N 120.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 05.08.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT ANALYSED POSITION : 29.3N 68.5W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL082005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 03.08.2005 29.3N 68.5W WEAK 12UTC 03.08.2005 30.5N 69.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 04.08.2005 30.7N 68.3W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 04.08.2005 31.2N 66.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 05.08.2005 31.9N 64.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 05.08.2005 32.8N 60.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 06.08.2005 33.7N 58.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 06.08.2005 33.7N 56.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 07.08.2005 34.3N 54.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 07.08.2005 38.6N 47.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 08.08.2005 40.2N 43.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 08.08.2005 41.5N 38.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 09.08.2005 42.2N 34.1W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 12 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+12 : 13.7N 27.6W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 03.08.2005 13.7N 27.6W WEAK 00UTC 04.08.2005 14.4N 29.4W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 04.08.2005 15.4N 32.8W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 05.08.2005 16.1N 35.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 05.08.2005 16.8N 38.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 06.08.2005 17.9N 40.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 06.08.2005 19.5N 41.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 07.08.2005 21.2N 43.6W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 12UTC 07.08.2005 22.9N 45.8W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 08.08.2005 23.9N 47.6W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 08.08.2005 25.2N 48.4W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 09.08.2005 26.5N 49.4W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 030526 ** WTNT33 KNHC 030546 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM AST WED AUG 03 2005 ...DEPRESSION MOVING ERRATICALLY... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA... PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 2 AM AST...0600Z... THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.5 NORTH... LONGITUDE 68.6 WEST OR ABOUT 305 MILES... 490 KM... SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA. THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN MEANDERING OR NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS BUT A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION NEAR 9 MPH... 15 KM/HR...IS EXPECTED TO RESUME SOON...FOLLOWED A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN BERMUDA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE DEPRESSION. REPEATING THE 2 AM AST POSITION...29.5 N... 68.6 W. MOVEMENT ...NEARLY STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM AST. FORECASTER PASCH $$