** WTNT80 EGRR 021751 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 02.08.2005 TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 12.6N 113.8W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 02.08.2005 12.6N 113.8W WEAK 00UTC 03.08.2005 13.6N 116.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 03.08.2005 14.2N 117.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 04.08.2005 15.3N 118.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 04.08.2005 16.4N 119.5W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 05.08.2005 18.1N 121.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 05.08.2005 19.2N 122.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 06.08.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 26.5N 69.6W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 02.08.2005 26.5N 69.6W WEAK 00UTC 03.08.2005 28.1N 68.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 03.08.2005 29.7N 68.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 04.08.2005 30.8N 67.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 04.08.2005 31.8N 64.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 05.08.2005 32.4N 62.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 05.08.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 13.0N 28.1W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 03.08.2005 13.0N 28.1W WEAK 00UTC 04.08.2005 14.8N 29.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 04.08.2005 15.4N 32.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 05.08.2005 16.4N 34.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 05.08.2005 16.9N 37.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 06.08.2005 17.6N 38.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 06.08.2005 18.6N 40.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 07.08.2005 19.1N 41.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 07.08.2005 20.2N 42.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 08.08.2005 20.4N 43.2W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 08.08.2005 21.4N 43.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 021751 ** WTPH20 RPMM 021200 *** T T T STORM WARNING 10 AT 1200 02 AUGUST SEVERE TROPICAL STORM (MATSA) (0509) WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE NINE POINT ZERO NORTH ONE TWO EIGHT POINT TWO EAST FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ZERO FIVE METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN FOUR FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS SOUTH WEST SEMICIRCLE THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS ELSEWHERE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE EIGHT ZERO HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS THREE ZERO METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN FOUR FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS ELSEWHERE FORECAST POSITIONS AT 021200 ONE NINE POINT ZERO NORTH ONE TWO EIGHT POINT TWO EAST AT 031200 TWO ONE POINT SEVEN NORTH ONE TWO FIVE POINT SIX EAST AT 041200 TWO FIVE POINT ZERO NORTH ONE TWO THREE POINT EIGHT EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN STORM AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILAPD WEATHER MANILA= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 021800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY MATSA 0509 (0509) INITIAL TIME 021800 UTC 00HR 20.0N 127.2E 975HPA 33M/S 30KTS 600KM 50KTS 160KM P12HR NW 20KM/H P+24HR 23.0N 125.0E 960HPA 40M/S P+48HR 25.5N 123.6E 950HPA 45M/S P+72HR 28.0N 122.5E 950HPA 45M/S= ** WTJP22 RJTD 021800 *** WARNING 021800. WARNING VALID 031800. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0509 MATSA (0509) UPGRADED FROM SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 965 HPA AT 20.0N 127.3E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING NORTHWEST 12 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 325 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 250 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 031800UTC AT 22.6N 125.0E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 945 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 041800UTC AT 25.0N 123.8E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 940 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 051800UTC AT 27.7N 123.0E WITH 220 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 945 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 021800 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0509 MATSA (0509) UPGRADED FROM STS ANALYSIS PSTN 021800UTC 20.0N 127.3E FAIR MOVE NW 12KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT 50KT 70NM 30KT 325NM SOUTHEAST 250NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 031800UTC 22.6N 125.0E 80NM 70% MOVE NW 08KT PRES 945HPA MXWD 080KT 48HF 041800UTC 25.0N 123.8E 150NM 70% MOVE NNW 06KT PRES 940HPA MXWD 085KT 72HF 051800UTC 27.7N 123.0E 220NM 70% MOVE NNW 06KT PRES 945HPA MXWD 080KT = ** WTNT43 KNHC 022031 *** TCDAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT TUE AUG 02 2005 WHILE THE CIRCULATION CENTER IS PERHAPS NOT REAL WELL DEFINED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY...THE IMAGERY DOES SHOW A NUMBER OF SMALL SWIRLS ROTATING AROUND A COMMON CENTER. THIS IS ALSO NOT THE MOST TROPICAL OF TROPICAL CYCLONES. HOWEVER...THE CENTER IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE DEEP CONVECTION...WITHIN 60 NMI...AND THE UPPER LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST IS FAR ENOUGH AWAY TO CONSIDER THIS SYSTEM MORE TROPICAL THAN SUBTROPICAL. THE DEPRESSION ALSO LIES SLIGHTLY ON THE SYMMETRIC WARM CORE SIDE OF BOB HART'S FSU CYCLONE PHASE SPACE ANALYSIS DIAGRAMS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 30 KT BASED ON EARLIER SHIP REPORTS OF 25 KT THAT WERE OUTSIDE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 010/11. THE DEPRESSION IS LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST OF AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW THAT IS DISPLACING THE CONVECTION TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THIS ASYMMETRY MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SOME REFORMATION OR APPARENT MOTION OF THE CENTER NORTHEASTWARD. THERE ARE A COUPLE OF WEAK 500 MB SHORT-WAVE TROUGHS IN THE WESTERLIES THAT SHOULD HELP TO NUDGE THE CYCLONE NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN RATHER POOR AGREEMENT AND OF LIMITED HELP. THE GFS DEVELOPS A POSSIBLY SPURIOUS SECOND LOW CLOSE TO THE DEPRESSION THAT COMPLICATES INTERPRETATION OF ITS FORECAST TRACK. THE UKMET APPEARS TO BE INITIALIZED TOO FAR TO THE SOUTH AND THE NOGAPS TOO FAR TO THE WEST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS PRIMARILY A BLEND OF THE GFDL AND MEDIUM BAM MODELS. THE TREND TODAY HAS BEEN FOR THE CIRCULATION CENTER AND DEEP CONVECTION TO BECOME SOMEWHAT BETTER ALIGNED...AND IF THE CYCLONE CAN GET A LITTLE FARTHER AWAY FROM THE UPPER LOW IT WOULD BE IN A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STRENGTHENING. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS UPPER LOW IS GOING TO SLIDE EASTWARD AND FOLLOW THE CYCLONE. IF THIS HAPPENS...VERTICAL WIND SHEAR COULD INCREASE AGAIN. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ALLOWS FOR A MODEST WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME STRENGTHENING. IF THE DEPRESSION BECOMES A TROPICAL STORM AS FORECAST...IT WOULD BE THE EARLIEST 8TH TROPICAL STORM ON RECORD. THE CURRENT RECORD IS AUGUST 15TH. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 02/2100Z 28.5N 68.7W 30 KT 12HR VT 03/0600Z 30.3N 68.3W 40 KT 24HR VT 03/1800Z 32.0N 66.7W 45 KT 36HR VT 04/0600Z 33.3N 64.7W 45 KT 48HR VT 04/1800Z 33.8N 62.2W 40 KT 72HR VT 05/1800Z 34.0N 57.0W 35 KT 96HR VT 06/1800Z 34.5N 54.0W 30 KT 120HR VT 07/1800Z 35.0N 52.0W 30 KT $$ ** WTNT23 KNHC 022036 *** TCMAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082005 2100Z TUE AUG 02 2005 AT 5 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF BERMUDA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BERMUDA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.5N 68.7W AT 02/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS..100NE 175SE 0SW 50NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.5N 68.7W AT 02/2100Z AT 02/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.2N 68.8W FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 30.3N 68.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 0SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 32.0N 66.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 25SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 33.3N 64.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 25SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 33.8N 62.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 25SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 34.0N 57.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 25SW 75NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 34.5N 54.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 35.0N 52.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.5N 68.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0300Z FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT73 KNHC 022037 *** SPFAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM AST TUE AUG 02 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE DEPRESSION CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.7 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2PM AST FRI AUG 5 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 32.0N 66.7W 30 2 X X 32 BERMUDA 4 16 1 1 22 33.3N 64.7W 1 16 3 X 20 SABLE ISLAND NS X X X 2 2 33.8N 62.2W X 3 10 3 16 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM WED FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2PM WED TO 2AM THU C FROM 2AM THU TO 2PM THU D FROM 2PM THU TO 2PM FRI E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM FRI X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT33 KNHC 022044 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM AST TUE AUG 02 2005 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS...WARNING ISSUED FOR BERMUDA... AT 5 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BERMUDA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.5 NORTH... LONGITUDE 68.7 WEST OR ABOUT 350 MILES... 565 KM... SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 13 MPH ...20 KM/HR. A TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN BERMUDA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE DEPRESSION. REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...28.5 N... 68.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM AST. FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTPN32 PGTW 022100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 09W (MATSA) WARNING NR 012 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 021800Z --- NEAR 20.0N 127.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 20.0N 127.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 030600Z --- 21.4N 126.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 031800Z --- 22.8N 125.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 040600Z --- 23.9N 124.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 041800Z --- 25.1N 123.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 051800Z --- 27.6N 122.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 061800Z --- 30.3N 122.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 071800Z --- 33.3N 121.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT --- REMARKS: 022100Z POSITION NEAR 20.3N 126.9E. TYPHOON (TY) 09W (MATSA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 365 NM SOUTH OF OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021800Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 030300Z, 030900Z, 031500Z AND 032100Z.// ** WTPN32 PGTW 022100 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 09W (MATSA) WARNING NR 012 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 021800Z --- NEAR 20.0N 127.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 20.0N 127.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 030600Z --- 21.4N 126.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT ** WTPN32 PGTW 022100 RRB *** 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 031800Z --- 22.8N 125.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 040600Z --- 23.9N 124.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT ** WTPN32 PGTW 022100 RRD *** 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 061800Z --- 30.3N 122.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 071800Z --- 33.3N 121.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT --- REMARKS: 022100Z POSITION NEAR 20.3N 126.9E. TYPHOON (TY) 09W (MATSA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 365 NM SOUTH OF OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021800Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 030300Z, 030900Z, 031500Z AND 032100Z.// ** WTPN32 PGTW 022100 RRC *** 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 041800Z --- 25.1N 123.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 051800Z --- 27.6N 122.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT ** WTPN32 PGTW 022100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 09W (MATSA) WARNING NR 012 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 021800Z --- NEAR 20.0N 127.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 20.0N 127.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 030600Z --- 21.4N 126.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 031800Z --- 22.8N 125.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 040600Z --- 23.9N 124.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 041800Z --- 25.1N 123.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 051800Z --- 27.6N 122.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 061800Z --- 30.3N 122.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 071800Z --- 33.3N 121.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT --- REMARKS: 022100Z POSITION NEAR 20.3N 126.9E. TYPHOON (TY) 09W (MATSA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 365 NM SOUTH OF OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021800Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 030300Z, 030900Z, 031500Z AND 032100Z.// ** WTJP32 RJTD 022100 *** WARNING 022100. WARNING VALID 032100. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0509 MATSA (0509) 965 HPA AT 20.5N 126.6E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING NORTHWEST 14 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 325 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 250 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 032100UTC AT 22.9N 124.4E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 945 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 022100 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0509 MATSA (0509) ANALYSIS PSTN 022100UTC 20.5N 126.6E FAIR MOVE NW 14KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT 50KT 70NM 30KT 325NM SOUTHEAST 250NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 032100UTC 22.9N 124.4E 80NM 70% MOVE NW 07KT PRES 945HPA MXWD 080KT 45HF 041800UTC 25.0N 123.8E 150NM 70% MOVE NNW 06KT PRES 940HPA MXWD 085KT 69HF 051800UTC 27.7N 123.0E 220NM 70% MOVE NNW 06KT PRES 945HPA MXWD 080KT = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 022100 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY MATSA 0509 (0509) INITIAL TIME 022100 UTC 00HR 20.5N 126.7E 975HPA 33M/S 30KTS 600KM 50KTS 160KM P12HR NW 20KM/H P+24HR 23.2N 124.7E 960HPA 40M/S P+48HR 25.6N 123.5E 950HPA 45M/S P+72HR 28.1N 122.5E 950HPA 45M/S= ** WTPH20 RPMM 021800 *** T T T TYPHOON WARNING 11 AT 1800 02 AUGUST TYPHOON (MATSA) (0509) UPGRADED FROM SEVERE TROPICAL STORM WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE ABD SURFACE DATA AT TWO ZERO POINT ZERO NORTH ONE TWO SEVEN POINT EAST FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ZERO FIVE METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN FOUR FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS ELSEWHERE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE SEVEN TWO HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS THREE FIVE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER TWO FIVE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN ONE ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN FOUR FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS ELSEWHERE FORECAST POSITIONS AT 031800 TWO THREE POINT TWO NORTH ONE TWO FOUR POINT FIVE EAST AT 041800 TWO SEVEN POINT ZERO NORTH ONE TWO TWO POINT SEVEN EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA= ** WTPH RPLL 021800 *** TTT TYPHOON WARNING 11 AT 1800 02 AUGUST, TYPHOON (MATSA) (0509) UPGRADED FROM SEVERE TROPICAL STORM WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SAT. AND SURFACE DATA AT 20.0N 127.2E FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT 05MPS ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN 450KMS RADIUS SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE 350KMS RADIUS ELSEWHERE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE 972 HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS 35MPS NEAR CENTER 25MPS WITHIN 100KMS RADIUS FROM CENTER 13MPS WITHIN 450KMS RADIUS SOUTHWEST SEMI-CIRCLE 350KMS RADIUS ELSEWHERE FORECAST POSITIONS AT 031800 23.2N 124.5E AT 041800 27.0N 122.7E ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND 3-HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD= ** WTNT33 KNHC 022359 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM AST TUE AUG 02 2005 ...OUTER RAINBANDS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION BEGINNING TO SPREAD OVER BERMUDA... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA... PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 8 PM AST... 0000Z... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.8 NORTH... LONGITUDE 68.8 WEST OR ABOUT 335 MILES... 540 KM... SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 8 MPH... 13 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB... 29.80 INCHES. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN BERMUDA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE DEPRESSION. REPEATING THE 8 PM AST POSITION...28.8 N... 68.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM AST. FORECASTER KNABB $$