** WTIN20 DEMS 010610 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS -RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 01-08-2005(.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) INTENSE CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER NORTH AND ADJOINING CENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL AND ANDAMAN SEA AND PARTS OF NORTH EAST ARABIAN SEA. OFF KONKAN AND GOA COAST RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 30.0 DEG NORTH OVER INDIAN REGION (.) ------ ** WTPQ20 BABJ 010600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS MATSA 0509 (0509) INITIAL TIME 010600 UTC 00HR 14.6N 132.0E 990HPA 23M/S 30KTS 400KM P12HR NW 20KM/H P+24HR 18.3N 129.0E 980HPA 30M/S P+48HR 21.4N 126.8E 960HPA 40M/S P+72HR 23.8N 125.2E 950HPA 45M/S= ** WTJP22 RJTD 010600 *** WARNING 010600. WARNING VALID 020600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. STORM WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0509 MATSA (0509) 992 HPA AT 14.5N 131.7E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHWEST 10 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 220 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 020600UTC AT 18.5N 128.4E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 030600UTC AT 21.4N 126.2E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 040600UTC AT 25.0N 124.5E WITH 220 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 010600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0509 MATSA (0509) ANALYSIS PSTN 010600UTC 14.5N 131.7E FAIR MOVE NW 10KT PRES 992HPA MXWD 040KT 30KT 300NM NORTHEAST 220NM SOUTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 020600UTC 18.5N 128.4E 80NM 70% MOVE NW 12KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 48HF 030600UTC 21.4N 126.2E 150NM 70% MOVE NW 08KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 72HF 040600UTC 25.0N 124.5E 220NM 70% MOVE NNW 08KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT = ** WTPQ31 RJTD 010600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 4 FOR TS 0509 MATSA (0509) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 010600 UTC IS FAIR. TS WILL DECELERATE FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. TS WILL MOVE NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS THEN MOVE TO NORTH. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TS WILL BE GRADED UP TO STS WITHIN 24 HOURS. TS WILL DEVELOP BECAUSE CYCLONE WILL STAY IN HIGH SST AREA. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 3.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTKO20 RKSL 010600 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 2 NAME TS 0509 MATSA ANALYSIS POSITION 010600UTC 14.5N 131.7E MOVEMENT NW 10KT PRES/VMAX 992HPA 41KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 020600UTC 18.3N 128.8E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT 48HR POSITION 030600UTC 21.1N 126.4E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 975HPA 64KT 72HR POSITION 040600UTC 24.5N 124.7E WITHIN 215NM PRES/VMAX 970HPA 68KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPN32 PGTW 010900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 09W (MATSA) WARNING NR 006 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 010600Z --- NEAR 15.0N 131.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 13 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.0N 131.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 011800Z --- 17.1N 130.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 020600Z --- 18.7N 129.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 021800Z --- 20.1N 128.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 030600Z --- 21.5N 127.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 040600Z --- 24.1N 126.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 050600Z --- 26.7N 125.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 060600Z --- 29.5N 125.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT --- REMARKS: 010900Z POSITION NEAR 15.5N 131.4E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 09W (MATSA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 710 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010600Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 011500Z, 012100Z, 020300Z AND 020900Z.// ** WTPN32 PGTW 010900 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 09W (MATSA) WARNING NR 006 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 010600Z --- NEAR 15.0N 131.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 13 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.0N 131.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 011800Z --- 17.1N 130.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 020600Z --- 18.7N 129.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT ** WTPN32 PGTW 010900 RRB *** 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 021800Z --- 20.1N 128.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 030600Z --- 21.5N 127.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT ** WTPN32 PGTW 010900 RRD *** SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010600Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 011500Z, 012100Z, 020300Z AND 020900Z.// ** WTPN32 PGTW 010900 RRC *** 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 040600Z --- 24.1N 126.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 050600Z --- 26.7N 125.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 060600Z --- 29.5N 125.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT --- REMARKS: 010900Z POSITION NEAR 15.5N 131.4E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 09W (MATSA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 710 NM ** WTPN32 PGTW 010900 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 09W (MATSA) WARNING NR 006 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 010600Z --- NEAR 15.0N 131.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 13 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.0N 131.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 011800Z --- 17.1N 130.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 020600Z --- 18.7N 129.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT ** WTPN32 PGTW 010900 RRB *** 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 021800Z --- 20.1N 128.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 030600Z --- 21.5N 127.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT ** WTPN32 PGTW 010900 RRD *** SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010600Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 011500Z, 012100Z, 020300Z AND 020900Z.// ** WTPN32 PGTW 010900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 09W (MATSA) WARNING NR 006 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 010600Z --- NEAR 15.0N 131.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 13 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.0N 131.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 011800Z --- 17.1N 130.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 020600Z --- 18.7N 129.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 021800Z --- 20.1N 128.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 030600Z --- 21.5N 127.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 040600Z --- 24.1N 126.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 050600Z --- 26.7N 125.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 060600Z --- 29.5N 125.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT --- REMARKS: 010900Z POSITION NEAR 15.5N 131.4E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 09W (MATSA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 710 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010600Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 011500Z, 012100Z, 020300Z AND 020900Z.// ** WTPQ21 RJTD 010900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0509 MATSA (0509) ANALYSIS PSTN 010900UTC 15.0N 131.1E FAIR MOVE NW 12KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 040KT 30KT 300NM NORTHEAST 220NM SOUTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 020900UTC 19.1N 127.9E 80NM 70% MOVE NW 12KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 45HF 030600UTC 21.4N 126.2E 150NM 70% MOVE NW 08KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 69HF 040600UTC 25.0N 124.5E 220NM 70% MOVE NNW 08KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT = ** WTJP32 RJTD 010900 *** WARNING 010900. WARNING VALID 020900. STORM WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0509 MATSA (0509) 990 HPA AT 15.0N 131.1E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHWEST 12 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 220 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 020900UTC AT 19.1N 127.9E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 010900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0509 MATSA (0509) ANALYSIS PSTN 010900UTC 15.0N 131.1E FAIR MOVE NW 12KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 040KT 30KT 300NM NORTHEAST 220NM SOUTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 020900UTC 19.1N 127.9E 80NM 70% MOVE NW 12KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 45HF 030600UTC 21.4N 126.2E 150NM 70% MOVE NW 08KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 69HF 040600UTC 25.0N 124.5E 220NM 70% MOVE NNW 08KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT = ** WTPH RPLL 010600 *** T T T STORM WARNING 05 AT 0600 01 AUGUST , TROPICAL STORM (MATSA) (0509) WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE FOUR POINT FOUR NORTH ONE THREE ONE POINT SIX EAST FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ZERO SIX METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN THREE ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE NINE FOUR HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS TWO ZERO METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN THREE ZERO METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN THREE ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 020600 ONE EIGHT POINT NINE NORTH ONE TWO EIGHT POINT SIX EAST AT 030600 TWO TWO POINT ZERO NORTH ONE TWO SIX POINT EIGHT EAST AND AT 040600 TWO FIVE POINT ZERO NORTH ONE TWO FIVE POINT FIVE EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN STORM AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE-HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD