** WTJP22 RJTD 010000 *** WARNING 010000. WARNING VALID 020000. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. STORM WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0509 MATSA (0509) 994 HPA AT 13.7N 132.8E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 07 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 220 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 020000UTC AT 18.0N 128.6E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 030000UTC AT 20.8N 125.6E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 040000UTC AT 23.5N 124.0E WITH 220 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 010000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0509 MATSA (0509) ANALYSIS PSTN 010000UTC 13.7N 132.8E FAIR MOVE NNW 07KT PRES 994HPA MXWD 040KT 30KT 300NM NORTHEAST 220NM SOUTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 020000UTC 18.0N 128.6E 80NM 70% MOVE NW 14KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 48HF 030000UTC 20.8N 125.6E 150NM 70% MOVE NW 09KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 72HF 040000UTC 23.5N 124.0E 220NM 70% MOVE NNW 07KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 010000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS MATSA 0509 (0509) INITIAL TIME 010000 UTC 00HR 13.7N 132.9E 995HPA 20M/S 30KTS 400KM P12HR NW 20KM/H P+24HR 17.3N 129.4E 988HPA 25M/S P+48HR 20.5N 127.0E 970HPA 35M/S P+72HR 23.0N 125.6E 960HPA 40M/S= ** WTPQ31 RJTD 010000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 3 FOR TS 0509 MATSA (0509) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 010000 UTC IS FAIR. TS WILL DECELERATE FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. TS WILL MOVE NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS THEN MOVE TO NORTH. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TS WILL BE GRADED UP TO STS WITHIN 24 HOURS. TS WILL DEVELOP BECAUSE CYCLONE WILL STAY IN HIGH SST AREA. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 3.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPN32 PGTW 010300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 09W (MATSA) WARNING NR 005 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 010000Z --- NEAR 13.8N 132.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.8N 132.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 011200Z --- 15.9N 131.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 020000Z --- 17.7N 129.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 021200Z --- 19.4N 128.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 030000Z --- 21.0N 127.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 040000Z --- 23.5N 126.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 050000Z --- 25.9N 125.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 060000Z --- 28.5N 124.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT --- REMARKS: 010300Z POSITION NEAR 14.3N 132.2E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 09W (MATSA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 790 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010000Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 010900Z, 011500Z, 012100Z AND 020300Z.// ** WTPN32 PGTW 010300 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 09W (MATSA) WARNING NR 005 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 010000Z --- NEAR 13.8N 132.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.8N 132.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 011200Z --- 15.9N 131.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 020000Z --- 17.7N 129.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT ** WTPN32 PGTW 010300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 09W (MATSA) WARNING NR 005 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 010000Z --- NEAR 13.8N 132.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.8N 132.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 011200Z --- 15.9N 131.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 020000Z --- 17.7N 129.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 021200Z --- 19.4N 128.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 030000Z --- 21.0N 127.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 040000Z --- 23.5N 126.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 050000Z --- 25.9N 125.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 060000Z --- 28.5N 124.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT --- REMARKS: 010300Z POSITION NEAR 14.3N 132.2E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 09W (MATSA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 790 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010000Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 010900Z, 011500Z, 012100Z AND 020300Z.// ** WTPN32 PGTW 010300 RRB *** 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 021200Z --- 19.4N 128.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 030000Z --- 21.0N 127.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT ** WTPN32 PGTW 010300 RRC *** 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 040000Z --- 23.5N 126.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 050000Z --- 25.9N 125.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 060000Z --- 28.5N 124.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT --- REMARKS: 010300Z POSITION NEAR 14.3N 132.2E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 09W (MATSA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 790 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010000Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 010900Z, 011500Z, 012100Z AND 020300Z.// ** WTPN32 PGTW 010300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 09W (MATSA) WARNING NR 005 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 010000Z --- NEAR 13.8N 132.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.8N 132.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 011200Z --- 15.9N 131.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 020000Z --- 17.7N 129.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 021200Z --- 19.4N 128.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 030000Z --- 21.0N 127.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 040000Z --- 23.5N 126.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 050000Z --- 25.9N 125.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 060000Z --- 28.5N 124.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT --- REMARKS: 010300Z POSITION NEAR 14.3N 132.2E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 09W (MATSA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 790 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010000Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 010900Z, 011500Z, 012100Z AND 020300Z.// ** WTPN32 PGTW 010300 RRB *** 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 021200Z --- 19.4N 128.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 030000Z --- 21.0N 127.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT ** WTPN32 PGTW 010300 RRC *** 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 040000Z --- 23.5N 126.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 050000Z --- 25.9N 125.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 060000Z --- 28.5N 124.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT --- REMARKS: 010300Z POSITION NEAR 14.3N 132.2E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 09W (MATSA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 790 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010000Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 010900Z, 011500Z, 012100Z AND 020300Z.// ** WTPN32 PGTW 010300 RRC *** 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 040000Z --- 23.5N 126.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 050000Z --- 25.9N 125.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 060000Z --- 28.5N 124.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT --- REMARKS: 010300Z POSITION NEAR 14.3N 132.2E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 09W (MATSA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 790 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010000Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 010900Z, 011500Z, 012100Z AND 020300Z.// ** WTPN32 PGTW 010300 RRC *** 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 040000Z --- 23.5N 126.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 050000Z --- 25.9N 125.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 060000Z --- 28.5N 124.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT --- REMARKS: 010300Z POSITION NEAR 14.3N 132.2E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 09W (MATSA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 790 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010000Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 010900Z, 011500Z, 012100Z AND 020300Z.// ** WTPH20 RPMM 010000 *** GALE WARNING 04 AT 0000 01 AUGUST TROPICAL STORM (MATSA)(0509)WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE THREE POINT SEVEN NORTH ONE THREE TWO POINT EIGHT EAST FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ZERO SEVEN METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN THREE ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE NINE FOUR HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS TWO ZERO METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN THREE ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 020000 ONE EIGHT POINT FOUR NORTH ONE TWO NINE POINT SIX EAST AT 030000 TWO ONE POINT FIVE NORTH ONE TWO SEVEN POINT NINE EAST AND AT 040000 TWO FOUR POINT SEVEN NORTH ONE TWO SIX POINT FOUR EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN STORM AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA= ** WTPH20 RPMM 010000 *** GALE WARNING 04 AT 0000 01 AUGUST TROPICAL STORM (MATSA)(0509)WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE THREE POINT SEVEN NORTH ONE THREE TWO POINT EIGHT EAST FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ZERO SEVEN METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN THREE ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE NINE FOUR HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS TWO ZERO METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN THREE ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 020000 ONE EIGHT POINT FOUR NORTH ONE TWO NINE POINT SIX EAST AT 030000 TWO ONE POINT FIVE NORTH ONE TWO SEVEN POINT NINE EAST AND AT 040000 TWO FOUR POINT SEVEN NORTH ONE TWO SIX POINT FOUR EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN STORM AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA= ** WTJP32 RJTD 010300 *** WARNING 010300. WARNING VALID 020300. STORM WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0509 MATSA (0509) 994 HPA AT 14.1N 132.4E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 07 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 220 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 020300UTC AT 18.2N 128.2E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 010300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0509 MATSA (0509) ANALYSIS PSTN 010300UTC 14.1N 132.4E FAIR MOVE NNW 07KT PRES 994HPA MXWD 040KT 30KT 300NM NORTHEAST 220NM SOUTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 020300UTC 18.2N 128.2E 80NM 70% MOVE NW 14KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 45HF 030000UTC 20.8N 125.6E 150NM 70% MOVE NW 09KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 69HF 040000UTC 23.5N 124.0E 220NM 70% MOVE NNW 07KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT = ** WTPH RPLL 010000 *** GALE WARNING 04 AT 0000 01 AUG TROPICAL STORM (MATSA) (0509) WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT 13.7N 132.8E FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT 07MPS ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 300KMS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 HECTO- PASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS 20MPS NEAR CENTER 13MPS WITHIN 300KMS RADIUS FRON CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 020000 18.4N 129.6E AT 030000 21.5N 127.9E AND AT 040000 24.7N 126.4E ALL SHIPS WITHIN STORM AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND 3-HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD= ** WTNT80 EGRR 010520 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 01.08.2005 NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+36 : 11.2N 25.3W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 02.08.2005 11.2N 25.3W WEAK 00UTC 03.08.2005 11.5N 26.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 03.08.2005 12.4N 28.2W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 04.08.2005 13.1N 29.0W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 04.08.2005 13.6N 31.1W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 05.08.2005 14.7N 33.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 05.08.2005 15.3N 34.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 06.08.2005 16.3N 36.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 06.08.2005 17.5N 38.4W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 07.08.2005 18.7N 40.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+48 : 26.3N 70.7W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 03.08.2005 26.3N 70.7W WEAK 12UTC 03.08.2005 29.6N 69.9W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 04.08.2005 31.5N 68.1W WEAK INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 12UTC 04.08.2005 32.3N 66.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 05.08.2005 32.2N 64.1W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 05.08.2005 32.0N 63.7W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 06.08.2005 31.2N 62.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 06.08.2005 31.2N 62.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 07.08.2005 31.3N 61.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 010520