** WTPQ20 BABJ 301200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS WASHI 0508 (0508) INITIAL TIME 301200 UTC 00HR 19.6N 108.3E 984HPA 23M/S 30KTS 200KM P12HR WNW 20KM/H= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 301200 CCA *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS WASHI 0508 (0508) INITIAL TIME 301200 UTC 00HR 19.6N 108.3E 984HPA 23M/S 30KTS 200KM P12HR WNW 20KM/H P+24HR 22.4N 104.2E 992HPA 18M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 301200 *** WARNING 301200. WARNING VALID 311200. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. GALE WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0508 WASHI (0508) 985 HPA AT 19.4N 108.3E GULF OF TONKIN MOVING WEST 10 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 311200UTC AT 20.5N 104.7E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 995 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 011200UTC AT 21.3N 100.9E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 1000 HPA. BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 301200 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0508 WASHI (0508) ANALYSIS PSTN 301200UTC 19.4N 108.3E FAIR MOVE W 10KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 045KT 30KT 180NM SOUTHEAST 150NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 311200UTC 20.5N 104.7E 80NM 70% MOVE W 08KT PRES 995HPA MXWD 035KT 48HF 011200UTC 21.3N 100.9E 150NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTJP21 RJTD 301200 CCA *** WARNING 301200. WARNING VALID 311200. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. GALE WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0508 WASHI (0508) 985 HPA AT 19.4N 108.3E GULF OF TONKIN MOVING WEST 10 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 311200UTC AT 20.5N 104.7E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 994 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 011200UTC AT 21.3N 100.9E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 1000 HPA. BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 301200 CCA *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0508 WASHI (0508) ANALYSIS PSTN 301200UTC 19.4N 108.3E FAIR MOVE W 10KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 045KT 30KT 180NM SOUTHEAST 150NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 311200UTC 20.5N 104.7E 80NM 70% MOVE W 08KT PRES 994HPA MXWD 035KT 48HF 011200UTC 21.3N 100.9E 150NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTPN21 PGTW 301330 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 300251Z JUL 05// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/290251ZJUL2005// AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.// RMKS/ REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/290251Z JUL 05// AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 290300)// RMKS/ 1. REMARKS: THIS SUPERSEDES REF A. THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 4.9N 136.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.8N 134.4E, APPROX- IMATELY 150 NM SOUTH OF PALAU. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED AND BECOME LESS ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. DUE TO DECREASING ORGANIZATION AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO POOR.// ** WTPN21 PGTW 300300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT CANCELLATION/300251ZJUL2005// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/300251ZJUL2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 205 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 4.4N 142.2E TO 8.5N 135.8E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IM AGERY AT 292330Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 4.9N 136.3E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 4.5N 141.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.9N 136.3E, APPROXIMATELY 180 NM SOUTH- EAST OF PALAU. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY REVEALS SURFACE INFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND CYCLING CONVECTION. A 292105Z QUIKSCAT PASS DEPICTS INCREASED GRADIENT LEVEL WINDS EQUATORWARD OF THE LLCC, HOWEVER, THE WIND FIELD NEAR THE LLCC REMAINS ELONGATED. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE REMAINS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS GOOD. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 310300Z.// ** WTPQ20 BABJ 301300 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS WASHI 0508 (0508) INITIAL TIME 301300 UTC 00HR 19.6N 108.2E 984HPA 23M/S 30KTS 200KM P12HR WNW 20KM/H= ** WTPN21 PGTW 300300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT CANCELLATION/300251ZJUL2005// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/300251ZJUL2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 205 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 4.4N 142.2E TO 8.5N 135.8E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IM AGERY AT 292330Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 4.9N 136.3E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 4.5N 141.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.9N 136.3E, APPROXIMATELY 180 NM SOUTH- EAST OF PALAU. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY REVEALS SURFACE INFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND CYCLING CONVECTION. A 292105Z QUIKSCAT PASS DEPICTS INCREASED GRADIENT LEVEL WINDS EQUATORWARD OF THE LLCC, HOWEVER, THE WIND FIELD NEAR THE LLCC REMAINS ELONGATED. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE REMAINS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS GOOD. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 310300Z.// ** WTSS20 VHHH 301345 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 301200 UTC, TROPICAL STORM WASHI (0508) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE NINE POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (19.4 N) ONE ZERO EIGHT POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (108.4 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 40 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 311200 UTC TWO ZERO POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (20.6 N) ONE ZERO FIVE POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (105.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 011200 UTC TWO ONE POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (21.9 N) ONE ZERO TWO POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (102.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 20 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 021200 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTSS20 VHHH 301345 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 301200 UTC, TROPICAL STORM WASHI (0508) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE NINE POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (19.4 N) ONE ZERO EIGHT POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (108.4 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 40 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 311200 UTC TWO ZERO POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (20.6 N) ONE ZERO FIVE POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (105.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 011200 UTC TWO ONE POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (21.9 N) ONE ZERO TWO POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (102.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 20 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 021200 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTPN31 PGTW 301500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 08W (WASHI) WARNING NR 008 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 301200Z --- NEAR 19.3N 108.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.3N 108.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 310000Z --- 20.0N 106.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 311200Z --- 20.6N 105.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 010000Z --- 21.0N 104.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 301500Z POSITION NEAR 19.5N 108.1E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 08W (WASHI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 180 NM SOUTHEAST OF HANOI, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301200Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 302100Z, 310300Z, 310900Z AND 311500Z.// ** WTPQ20 BABJ 301400 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS WASHI 0508 (0508) INITIAL TIME 301400 UTC 00HR 19.6N 108.1E 984HPA 23M/S 30KTS 200KM P12HR WNW 20KM/H= ** WTPN31 PGTW 301500 RRB *** DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 301500Z POSITION NEAR 19.5N 108.1E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 08W (WASHI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 180 NM SOUTHEAST OF HANOI, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301200Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 302100Z, 310300Z, 310900Z AND 311500Z.// ** WTPN31 PGTW 301500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 08W (WASHI) WARNING NR 008 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 301200Z --- NEAR 19.3N 108.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.3N 108.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 310000Z --- 20.0N 106.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 311200Z --- 20.6N 105.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 010000Z --- 21.0N 104.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 301500Z POSITION NEAR 19.5N 108.1E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 08W (WASHI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 180 NM SOUTHEAST OF HANOI, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301200Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 302100Z, 310300Z, 310900Z AND 311500Z.// ** WTPN31 PGTW 301500 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 08W (WASHI) WARNING NR 008 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 301200Z --- NEAR 19.3N 108.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.3N 108.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 310000Z --- 20.0N 106.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 311200Z --- 20.6N 105.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 010000Z --- 21.0N 104.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT ** WTPN21 PGTW 301330 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 300251Z JUL 05// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/290251ZJUL2005// AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.// RMKS/ REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/290251Z JUL 05// AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 290300)// RMKS/ 1. REMARKS: THIS SUPERSEDES REF A. THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 4.9N 136.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.8N 134.4E, APPROX- IMATELY 150 NM SOUTH OF PALAU. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED AND BECOME LESS ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. DUE TO DECREASING ORGANIZATION AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO POOR.// ** WTPN22 PGTW 301430 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT/301421ZJUL2005// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.1N 138.5E TO 14.0N 135.9E WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 301130Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 10.4N 138.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.6N 139.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.4N 138.0E, APPROXIMATELY 55 NM NORTH OF YAP. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY REVEALS CONSOLIDATING CONVECTION OVER A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCU- LATION CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. BASED ON IMPROVING ORGANIZATION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 311430Z.// ** WTPN22 PGTW 301430 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT/301421ZJUL2005// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.1N 138.5E TO 14.0N 135.9E WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 301130Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 10.4N 138.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.6N 139.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.4N 138.0E, APPROXIMATELY 55 NM NORTH OF YAP. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY REVEALS CONSOLIDATING CONVECTION OVER A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCU- LATION CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. BASED ON IMPROVING ORGANIZATION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 311430Z.// ** WTPQ20 BABJ 301500 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS WASHI 0508 (0508) INITIAL TIME 301500 UTC 00HR 19.6N 108.1E 984HPA 23M/S 30KTS 200KM P12HR WNW 15KM/H= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 301500 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0508 WASHI (0508) ANALYSIS PSTN 301500UTC 19.4N 108.0E FAIR MOVE W 08KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 045KT 30KT 180NM SOUTHEAST 150NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 311500UTC 20.6N 104.2E 80NM 70% MOVE W 08KT PRES 994HPA MXWD 035KT 45HF 011200UTC 21.3N 100.9E 150NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 301600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS WASHI 0508 (0508) INITIAL TIME 301600 UTC 00HR 19.6N 108.1E 984HPA 23M/S 30KTS 200KM P12HR WNW 15KM/H= ** WTNT80 EGRR 301710 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 30.07.2005 TROPICAL STORM ANALYSED IN THE MODEL AT POSITION : 8.4N 100.5W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 30.07.2005 8.4N 100.5W WEAK 00UTC 31.07.2005 8.5N 103.4W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 31.07.2005 8.8N 104.9W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 01.08.2005 9.9N 106.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 01.08.2005 10.7N 109.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 02.08.2005 11.7N 111.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 02.08.2005 12.3N 113.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 03.08.2005 13.5N 114.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 03.08.2005 14.4N 117.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 04.08.2005 15.3N 118.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 04.08.2005 16.3N 120.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 05.08.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 301710 ** WTSS20 VHHH 301645 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 301500 UTC, TROPICAL STORM WASHI (0508) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE NINE POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (19.4 N) ONE ZERO EIGHT POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (108.2 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 9 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 45 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 311500 UTC TWO ZERO POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (20.7 N) ONE ZERO FOUR POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (104.8 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 011500 UTC TWO TWO POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (22.0 N) ONE ZERO ONE POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (101.8 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 20 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 021500 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTSS20 VHHH 301645 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 301500 UTC, TROPICAL STORM WASHI (0508) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE NINE POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (19.4 N) ONE ZERO EIGHT POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (108.2 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 9 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 45 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 311500 UTC TWO ZERO POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (20.7 N) ONE ZERO FOUR POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (104.8 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 011500 UTC TWO TWO POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (22.0 N) ONE ZERO ONE POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (101.8 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 20 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 021500 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTPQ20 BABJ 301700 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS WASHI 0508 (0508) INITIAL TIME 301700 UTC 00HR 19.6N 108.1E 984HPA 23M/S 30KTS 200KM P12HR WNW 15KM/H=