** WTPQ20 BABJ 290600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS NAMELESS 0508 (05XX) INITIAL TIME 290600 UTC 00HR 18.2N 111.6E 992HPA 18M/S 30KTS 200KM P12HR WNW 10KM/H= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 290600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS NAMELESS 0508 (05XX) INITIAL TIME 290600 UTC 00HR 18.2N 111.6E 992HPA 18M/S 30KTS 200KM P12HR WNW 10KM/H= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 290600 CCA *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS NAMELESS 0508 (05XX) INITIAL TIME 290600 UTC 00HR 18.2N 111.6E 992HPA 18M/S 30KTS 200KM P-06HR 17.9N 112.7E 992HPA 18M/S P12HR WNW 10KM/H P+24HR 19.2N 109.0E 994HPA 18M/S P+48HR 20.6N 106.2E 998HPA 18M/S= ** WTIN20 DEMS 290630 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS -RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 29-07-2004(.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) A DEPRESSION HAS FORMED OVER NORTHWEST BAY OFF ORISSA COAST WITH IT'S CENTRE NEAR BALASORE(42895).SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO MOVE IN A WEST NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION. RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 30 DEG. NORTH OVER INDIAN REGION (.) ** WTPQ20 RJTD 290600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TD ANALYSIS PSTN 290600UTC 18.6N 112.0E FAIR MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 996HPA MXWD 030KT FORECAST 24HF 300600UTC 20.0N 109.1E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 07KT PRES 992HPA MXWD 035KT = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 290700 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS NAMELESS 0508 (05XX) INITIAL TIME 290700 UTC 00HR 18.2N 111.5E 992HPA 18M/S 30KTS 200KM P12HR WNW 10KM/H= ** WTPQ30 RJTD 290600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 1 FOR TD LOCATED AT 18.6N 112.0E 1.GENERAL COMMENTS POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 290600 UTC IS FAIR. TD WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS DECELERATE. TD WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TD WILL BE GRADED UP TO TS WITHIN 24 HOURS. TD WILL DEVELOP BECAUSE SPIRAL CLOUD BANDS HAVE BECOME WELL ORGANIZ ED. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 2.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPN31 PGTW 290900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W WARNING NR 003 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 290600Z --- NEAR 18.5N 112.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 18.5N 112.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 291800Z --- 19.1N 111.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 300600Z --- 19.8N 110.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 301800Z --- 20.3N 108.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 310600Z --- 20.9N 106.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 010600Z --- 21.8N 102.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 290900Z POSITION NEAR 18.7N 111.8E. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 08W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 145 NM EAST OF HAINAN, CHINA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 291500Z, 292100Z, 300300Z AND 300900Z.// ** WTSS20 VHHH 290745 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 290600 UTC, TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE EIGHT POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (18.8 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (112.0 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 9 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 300600 UTC ONE NINE POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (19.7 N) ONE ZERO EIGHT POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (108.5 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 310600 UTC TWO ZERO POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (20.6 N) ONE ZERO FIVE POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (105.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 010600 UTC TWO ZERO POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (20.9 N) ONE ZERO ONE POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (101.8 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS. ** WTSS20 VHHH 290745 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 290600 UTC, TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE EIGHT POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (18.8 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (112.0 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 9 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 300600 UTC ONE NINE POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (19.7 N) ONE ZERO EIGHT POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (108.5 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 310600 UTC TWO ZERO POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (20.6 N) ONE ZERO FIVE POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (105.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 010600 UTC TWO ZERO POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (20.9 N) ONE ZERO ONE POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (101.8 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS. ** WTPQ20 BABJ 290800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS NAMELESS 0508 (05XX) INITIAL TIME 290800 UTC 00HR 18.2N 111.5E 992HPA 18M/S 30KTS 200KM P12HR WNW 10KM/H= ** WTNT21 KNHC 290839 *** TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 32 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062005 0900Z FRI JUL 29 2005 GALE AND STORM FORCE WIND WARNINGS... ISSUED BY THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF CANADA... ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE SLOPE WATERS SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA AND THE GRAND BANKS SOUTH OF NEWFOUNDLAND. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.3N 63.8W AT 29/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 19 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 25NE 30SE 25SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 75SE 75SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS..200NE 250SE 120SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.3N 63.8W AT 29/0900Z AT 29/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 39.6N 64.8W FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 42.0N 60.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 90SE 90SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 44.2N 56.2W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 75SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 46.7N 50.7W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 75SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 40.3N 63.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/1500Z FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT31 KNHC 290848 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN ADVISORY NUMBER 32 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM AST FRI JUL 29 2005 ...FRANKLIN MOVING FASTER TOWARD THE NORTHEAST... GALE AND STORM FORCE WIND WARNINGS... ISSUED BY THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF CANADA... ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE SLOPE WATERS SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA AND THE GRAND BANKS SOUTH OF NEWFOUNDLAND. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 40.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 63.8 WEST OR ABOUT 295 MILES... 480 KM... SOUTH OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA AND ABOUT 695 MILES...1115 KM...SOUTHWEST OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND. FRANKLIN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 22 MPH... 35 KM/HR. A CONTINUED NORTHEASTWARD MOTION WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK... THE CENTER OF FRANKLIN WILL BE NEAR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND EARLY SATURDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH... 95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING... FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES... 140 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES. RAINFALL TOTALS OF UP TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND IN ASSOCIATION WITH FRANKLIN. REPEATING THE 5 AM AST POSITION...40.3 N... 63.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 22 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 997 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM AST. FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT71 KNHC 290849 *** SPFAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN PROBABILITIES NUMBER 32 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM AST FRI JUL 29 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF FRANKLIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 40.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.8 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2AM AST MON AUG 1 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 44.2N 56.2W 20 3 X X 23 PTX BASQUES NFLD 3 3 X X 6 46.7N 50.7W X 15 X X 15 BURGEO NFLD 5 6 X X 11 SABLE ISLAND NS 25 X X X 25 ILE ST PIERRE 9 8 X X 17 SYDNEY NS 6 2 X X 8 CAPE RACE NFLD 3 15 X X 18 EDDY POINT NS 4 1 X X 5 HIBERNIA OILFLD X 10 X X 10 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM SAT FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2AM SAT TO 2PM SAT C FROM 2PM SAT TO 2AM SUN D FROM 2AM SUN TO 2AM MON E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM MON X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT41 KNHC 290900 *** TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 32 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT FRI JUL 29 2005 DEEP CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED DURING THE NIGHT NEAR THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER... ALTHOUGH THE CLOUD TOPS ARE STEADILY WARMING. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 06Z WERE 45 TO 55 KT... SO THE ADVISORY INTENSITY REMAINS 50 KT. FRANKLIN CONTINUES TO ACCELERATE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 045/19. THE TRACK FORECAST IS RELATIVELY STRAIGHTFORWARD... WITH CONTINUED ACCELERATION ON ROUGHLY THE PRESENT HEADING DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS ARE BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE OPPORTUNITY FOR ANY FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS JUST ABOUT OVER... AS FRANKLIN IS PASSING NORTH OF THE GULF STREAM... SO GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST. WHILE FRANKLIN CURRENTLY RETAINS THE CHARACTERISTICS OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE... EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITHIN 24 HOURS... WITH THE CIRCULATION BEING ABSORBED INTO A FRONTAL ZONE WITHIN ABOUT 48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK BRINGS TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS NEAR OR OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN TIP OF NEWFOUNDLAND IN 24 TO 36 HOURS. FORECASTER KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 29/0900Z 40.3N 63.8W 50 KT 12HR VT 29/1800Z 42.0N 60.8W 45 KT 24HR VT 30/0600Z 44.2N 56.2W 40 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 30/1800Z 46.7N 50.7W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 31/0600Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM $$ ** WTPQ20 BABJ 290900 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS NAMELESS 0508 (05XX) INITIAL TIME 290900 UTC 00HR 18.3N 111.5E 990HPA 20M/S 30KTS 200KM P12HR WNW 10KM/H= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 290900 CCA *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS NAMELESS 0508 (05XX) INITIAL TIME 290900 UTC 00HR 18.3N 111.5E 990HPA 20M/S 30KTS 200KM P12HR WNW 10KM/H P+24HR 19.7N 109.2E 994HPA 18M/S P+48HR 21.5N 106.0E 995HPA 18M/S= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 290900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TD ANALYSIS PSTN 290900UTC 18.6N 111.9E FAIR MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 996HPA MXWD 030KT FORECAST 24HF 300900UTC 20.1N 108.9E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 08KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 035KT = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 291000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS NAMELESS 0508 (05XX) INITIAL TIME 291000 UTC 00HR 18.4N 111.5E 990HPA 20M/S 30KTS 200KM P12HR WNW 10KM/H= ** WTSS20 VHHH 291045 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 290900 UTC, TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE EIGHT POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (18.7 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (111.9 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 9 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 300900 UTC ONE NINE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (19.6 N) ONE ZERO EIGHT POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (108.4 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 310900 UTC TWO ZERO POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (20.6 N) ONE ZERO FIVE POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (105.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 010900 UTC TWO ZERO POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (20.9 N) ONE ZERO ONE POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (101.8 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS. ** WTSS20 VHHH 291045 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 290900 UTC, TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE EIGHT POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (18.7 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (111.9 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 9 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 300900 UTC ONE NINE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (19.6 N) ONE ZERO EIGHT POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (108.4 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 310900 UTC TWO ZERO POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (20.6 N) ONE ZERO FIVE POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (105.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 010900 UTC TWO ZERO POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (20.9 N) ONE ZERO ONE POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (101.8 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS. ** WTPQ20 BABJ 291100 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS NAMELESS 0508 (05XX) INITIAL TIME 291100 UTC 00HR 18.5N 111.5E 990HPA 20M/S 30KTS 200KM P12HR WNW 10KM/H=