** WTSR20 WSSS 281800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 290000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS NAMELESS 0508 (0508) INITIAL TIME 290000 UTC 00HR 19.0N 112.7E 995HPA 18M/S 30KTS 200KM P12HR NW 10KM/H= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 290000 CCA *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS NAMELESS 0508 (0508) INITIAL TIME 290000 UTC 00HR 19.0N 112.7E 992HPA 18M/S 30KTS 200KM P12HR NW 10KM/H P+24HR 20.1N 110.3E 994HPA 18M/S P+48HR 21.4N 107.6E 994HPA 18M/S P+72HR 22.7N 105.5E 1000HPA 15M/S= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 290100 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS NAMELESS 0508 (05XX) INITIAL TIME 290100 UTC 00HR 18.6N 112.7E 992HPA 18M/S 30KTS 200KM P12HR WNW 10KM/H= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 290000 CCB *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS NAMELESS 0508 (05XX) INITIAL TIME 290000 UTC 00HR 18.5N 112.7E 992HPA 18M/S 30KTS 200KM P12HR WNW 10KM/H P+24HR 20.1N 110.3E 994HPA 18M/S P+48HR 21.4N 107.6E 994HPA 18M/S P+72HR 22.7N 105.5E 1000HPA 15M/S= ** WTSS20 VHHH 290145 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 290000 UTC, TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE EIGHT POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (18.8 N) ONE ONE THREE POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (113.0 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 9 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 150 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 300000 UTC TWO ZERO POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (20.0 N) ONE ZERO NINE POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (109.4 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 310000 UTC TWO ZERO POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (20.9 N) ONE ZERO FIVE POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (105.7 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 010000 UTC TWO ONE POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (21.0 N) ONE ZERO ONE POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (101.8 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS. ** WTSS20 VHHH 290145 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 290000 UTC, TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE EIGHT POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (18.8 N) ONE ONE THREE POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (113.0 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 9 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 150 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 300000 UTC TWO ZERO POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (20.0 N) ONE ZERO NINE POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (109.4 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 310000 UTC TWO ZERO POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (20.9 N) ONE ZERO FIVE POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (105.7 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 010000 UTC TWO ONE POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (21.0 N) ONE ZERO ONE POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (101.8 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS. ** WTPN31 PGTW 290300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W WARNING NR 002 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 290000Z --- NEAR 18.3N 112.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 18.3N 112.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 291200Z --- 18.2N 110.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 300000Z --- 18.5N 109.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 301200Z --- 19.1N 107.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 310000Z --- 19.6N 106.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 010000Z --- 20.4N 103.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 290300Z POSITION NEAR 18.3N 111.9E. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 08W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 260 NM SOUTH- SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY REVEALS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER AND ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS AN INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. DUE TO RECENT VISIBLE IMAGERY, THE POSITION OF TD 08W HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY EQUATORWARD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290000Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 290900Z, 291500Z, 292100Z AND 300300Z.// ** WTPQ20 BABJ 271800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TD01 INITIAL TIME 271800 UTC 00HR 18.6N 113.0E 997HPA 15M/S P12HR NW 10KM/H P+24HR 20.2N 112.0E 995HPA 18M/S= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 281800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TD01 INITIAL TIME 281800 UTC 00HR 18.6N 113.0E 997HPA 15M/S 30KTS 80KM P12HR NW 10KM/H P+24HR 20.2N 112.0E 995HPA 18M/S= ** WTNT71 KNHC 290231 *** SPFAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN PROBABILITIES NUMBER 31 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM AST THU JUL 28 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF FRANKLIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 38.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.0 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8PM AST SUN JUL 31 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 42.8N 59.3W 21 3 X X 24 EDDY POINT NS 6 5 X X 11 45.0N 54.5W 1 16 2 X 19 PTX BASQUES NFLD 1 7 2 X 10 47.3N 49.3W X 3 10 X 13 BURGEO NFLD 1 10 2 X 13 HALIFAX NS 4 1 X X 5 ILE ST PIERRE 2 13 2 X 17 SABLE ISLAND NS 18 3 X X 21 CAPE RACE NFLD X 12 5 X 17 SYDNEY NS 5 7 X X 12 HIBERNIA OILFLD X 2 10 X 12 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM FRI FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8PM FRI TO 8AM SAT C FROM 8AM SAT TO 8PM SAT D FROM 8PM SAT TO 8PM SUN E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM SUN X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT21 KNHC 290231 *** TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 31 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062005 0300Z FRI JUL 29 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.9N 66.0W AT 29/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 25NE 25SE 25SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 80SE 75SW 25NW. 12 FT SEAS..200NE 250SE 120SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.9N 66.0W AT 29/0300Z AT 29/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 38.4N 66.7W FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 40.8N 63.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 35SE 25SW 0NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 42.8N 59.3W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 75SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 45.0N 54.5W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 75SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 47.3N 49.3W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 75SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 38.9N 66.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0900Z FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT31 KNHC 290231 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN ADVISORY NUMBER 31 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM AST THU JUL 28 2005 ...FRANKLIN GRADUALLY ACCELERATING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...MAINLY A THREAT TO MARINE INTERESTS... AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 38.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.0 WEST OR ABOUT 415 MILES... 665 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA. FRANKLIN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR... AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH... 95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE EARLY FRIDAY... FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT AFTER FRANKLIN MOVES NORTH OF THE GULF STREAM. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES ...150 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES. REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...38.9 N... 66.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 997 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM AST. FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT41 KNHC 290232 *** TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 31 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT THU JUL 28 2005 FRANKLIN CONTINUES TO GENERATE CONVECTION WITH TOPS COLDER THAN -60C NEAR AND WEST OF THE CENTER. HOWEVER...TWO RECENT SSM/I OVERPASSES INDICATE THE CONVECTION IS NOT WELL-WRAPPED AROUND THE CENTER... CERTAINLY NOT ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY INCREASING THE INTENSITY AT THIS TIME. THE INITIAL WINDS REMAIN 50 KT BASED ON SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 KT FROM TAFB AND 45 KT FROM SAB. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 040/16. FRANKLIN IS NOW EMBEDDED IN THE WESTERLIES...AND A MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR EAST-NORTHEAST WILL CONTINUE WITH GRADUAL ACCELERATION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LIFE OF THE CYCLONE. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS NUDGED JUST A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...AND IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE. FRANKLIN STILL HAS ABOUT 6-12 HR IN WHICH TO STRENGTHEN BEFORE THE CENTER MOVES NORTH OF THE GULF STREAM AND ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR. AFTER THAT...THE STORM SHOULD WEAKEN AND BEGIN TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. FRANKLIN IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN 24-36 HR...THEN BE ABSORBED BY AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM IS 48-60 HR. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK BRINGS TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS NEAR OR OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN TIP OF NEWFOUNDLAND IN 36-48 HR. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 29/0300Z 38.9N 66.0W 50 KT 12HR VT 29/1200Z 40.8N 63.2W 50 KT 24HR VT 30/0000Z 42.8N 59.3W 45 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 30/1200Z 45.0N 54.5W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 31/0000Z 47.3N 49.3W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ ** WTPQ20 BABJ 290200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS NAMELESS 0508 (05XX) INITIAL TIME 290200 UTC 00HR 18.0N 112.2E 992HPA 18M/S 30KTS 200KM P12HR WNW 10KM/H= ** WTPN31 PGTW 290300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W WARNING NR 002 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 290000Z --- NEAR 18.3N 112.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 18.3N 112.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 291200Z --- 18.2N 110.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 300000Z --- 18.5N 109.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 301200Z --- 19.1N 107.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 310000Z --- 19.6N 106.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 010000Z --- 20.4N 103.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 290300Z POSITION NEAR 18.3N 111.9E. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 08W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 260 NM SOUTH- SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY REVEALS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER AND ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS AN INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. DUE TO RECENT VISIBLE IMAGERY, THE POSITION OF TD 08W HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY EQUATORWARD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290000Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 290900Z, 291500Z, 292100Z AND 300300Z.// ** WTPN31 PGTW 290300 RRB *** ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS AN INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. DUE TO RECENT VISIBLE IMAGERY, THE POSITION OF TD 08W HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY EQUATORWARD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290000Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 290900Z, 291500Z, 292100Z AND 300300Z.// ** WTPN31 PGTW 290300 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W WARNING NR 002 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 290000Z --- NEAR 18.3N 112.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 18.3N 112.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 291200Z --- 18.2N 110.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 300000Z --- 18.5N 109.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 301200Z --- 19.1N 107.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 310000Z --- 19.6N 106.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 010000Z --- 20.4N 103.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 290300Z POSITION NEAR 18.3N 111.9E. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 08W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 260 NM SOUTH- SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY REVEALS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER AND ** WTPN21 PGTW 290300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 2902511ZJUL2005// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 205 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 4.4N 142.2E TO 8.5N 135.8E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 282330Z INDI- CATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 4.5N 141.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 3.3N 143.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.5N 141.7E, APPROXIMATELY 370 NM SE OF YAP. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY REVEALS AN INCREASE IN SURFACE INFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 281950Z QUIKSCAT PASS DEPICTS INCREASED GRADIENT LEVEL WINDS EQUATORWARD OF THE LLCC, HOWEVER THE WIND FIELD NEAR THE LLCC IS ELONGATED. ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION IS CYCLING AND RADIAL OUTFLOW IS IMPROVING. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE LLCC IS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND INCREASING 850 MB VORTICITY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. DUE TO AN INCREASE OF RADIAL OUTFLOW AND DVORAK T-NUMBERS OF T1.5 FROM ALL FIXING AGENCIES, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 300300Z.// ** WTPN21 PGTW 290300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 2902511ZJUL2005// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 205 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 4.4N 142.2E TO 8.5N 135.8E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 282330Z INDI- CATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 4.5N 141.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 3.3N 143.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.5N 141.7E, APPROXIMATELY 370 NM SE OF YAP. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY REVEALS AN INCREASE IN SURFACE INFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 281950Z QUIKSCAT PASS DEPICTS INCREASED GRADIENT LEVEL WINDS EQUATORWARD OF THE LLCC, HOWEVER THE WIND FIELD NEAR THE LLCC IS ELONGATED. ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION IS CYCLING AND RADIAL OUTFLOW IS IMPROVING. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE LLCC IS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND INCREASING 850 MB VORTICITY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. DUE TO AN INCREASE OF RADIAL OUTFLOW AND DVORAK T-NUMBERS OF T1.5 FROM ALL FIXING AGENCIES, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 300300Z.// ** WTPQ20 BABJ 290300 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS NAMELESS 0508 (05XX) INITIAL TIME 290300 UTC 00HR 18.0N 112.2E 992HPA 18M/S 30KTS 200KM P12HR WNW 10KM/H= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 290400 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS NAMELESS 0508 (05XX) INITIAL TIME 290400 UTC 00HR 18.0N 112.0E 992HPA 18M/S 30KTS 200KM P12HR WNW 10KM/H= ** WTSS20 VHHH 290445 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 290300 UTC, TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE EIGHT POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (18.6 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (112.6 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 150 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 300300 UTC TWO ZERO POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (20.2 N) ONE ZERO EIGHT POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (108.7 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 310300 UTC TWO ONE POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (21.0 N) ONE ZERO FOUR POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (104.6 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 010300 UTC TWO ONE POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (21.0 N) ONE ZERO ZERO POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (100.3 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS. ** WTSS20 VHHH 290445 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 290300 UTC, TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE EIGHT POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (18.6 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (112.6 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 150 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 300300 UTC TWO ZERO POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (20.2 N) ONE ZERO EIGHT POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (108.7 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 310300 UTC TWO ONE POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (21.0 N) ONE ZERO FOUR POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (104.6 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 010300 UTC TWO ONE POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (21.0 N) ONE ZERO ZERO POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (100.3 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS. ** WTPQ20 BABJ 290500 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS NAMELESS 0508 (05XX) INITIAL TIME 290500 UTC 00HR 18.1N 111.8E 992HPA 18M/S 30KTS 200KM P12HR WNW 10KM/H= ** WTNT80 EGRR 290542 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN ANALYSED POSITION : 38.6N 66.8W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 29.07.2005 38.6N 66.8W MODERATE 12UTC 29.07.2005 41.3N 63.3W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 30.07.2005 42.7N 59.4W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 30.07.2005 43.7N 54.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 31.07.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+96 : 24.4N 76.7W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 02.08.2005 24.4N 76.7W WEAK 12UTC 02.08.2005 25.7N 77.8W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 03.08.2005 26.6N 77.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 03.08.2005 27.5N 77.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 04.08.2005 28.8N 77.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 290542