** WTNT80 EGRR 281740 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 28.07.2005 NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 12 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+12 : 11.6N 127.0W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 29.07.2005 11.6N 127.0W WEAK 12UTC 29.07.2005 13.8N 128.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 30.07.2005 14.8N 130.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 30.07.2005 15.7N 133.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 31.07.2005 16.9N 136.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 31.07.2005 17.7N 139.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 01.08.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+72 : 8.0N 102.9W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 31.07.2005 8.0N 102.9W WEAK 00UTC 01.08.2005 8.2N 105.9W WEAK INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 12UTC 01.08.2005 8.9N 108.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 02.08.2005 9.7N 110.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 02.08.2005 11.0N 113.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 03.08.2005 12.0N 115.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 03.08.2005 12.8N 117.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN ANALYSED POSITION : 36.0N 68.6W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 28.07.2005 36.0N 68.6W WEAK 00UTC 29.07.2005 38.1N 66.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 29.07.2005 42.2N 63.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 30.07.2005 45.3N 58.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 30.07.2005 50.2N 49.5W EXTRATROPICAL. TROPICAL STORM ANALYSED IN THE MODEL AT POSITION : 9.7N 23.3W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 28.07.2005 9.7N 23.3W WEAK 00UTC 29.07.2005 10.3N 25.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 29.07.2005 10.6N 29.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 30.07.2005 12.1N 32.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 30.07.2005 12.9N 35.6W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 31.07.2005 14.0N 38.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 31.07.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+60 : 23.1N 66.8W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 31.07.2005 23.1N 66.8W WEAK 12UTC 31.07.2005 24.4N 68.5W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 01.08.2005 25.3N 70.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 01.08.2005 25.5N 71.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 02.08.2005 26.2N 72.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 02.08.2005 27.0N 72.9W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 03.08.2005 27.3N 73.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 03.08.2005 27.9N 73.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 281740 ** WTPN21 PGTW 281730 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 281721ZJUL2005// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 135 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 18.5N 114.8E TO 20.6N 111.6E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IM- AGERY AT 281430Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 114.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 114.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 114.4E, APPROXIMATELY 215 NM S OF HONG KONG. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY REVEALS CONVECTION HAS INCREASED AND CONSOLIDATED AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRC- ULATION CENTER (LLCC). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES AN INCREASE IN 850 MB VORTICITY AND THE LLCC HAS MOVED INTO AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOWER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. DUE TO THE INCREASE IN CONVECTION AND SURFACE INFLOW, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 291730Z.// ** WTPN21 PGTW 281730 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 281721ZJUL2005// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 135 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 18.5N 114.8E TO 20.6N 111.6E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IM- AGERY AT 281430Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 114.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 114.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 114.4E, APPROXIMATELY 215 NM S OF HONG KONG. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY REVEALS CONVECTION HAS INCREASED AND CONSOLIDATED AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRC- ULATION CENTER (LLCC). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES AN INCREASE IN 850 MB VORTICITY AND THE LLCC HAS MOVED INTO AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOWER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. DUE TO THE INCREASE IN CONVECTION AND SURFACE INFLOW, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 291730Z.// ** WTPQ20 BABJ 271800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TD01 INITIAL TIME 271800 UTC 00HR 18.6N 113.0E 997HPA 15M/S P12HR NW 10KM/H P+24HR 20.2N 112.0E 995HPA 18M/S= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 281800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TD01 INITIAL TIME 281800 UTC 00HR 18.6N 113.0E 997HPA 15M/S 30KTS 80KM P12HR NW 10KM/H P+24HR 20.2N 112.0E 995HPA 18M/S= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 271800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TD01 INITIAL TIME 271800 UTC 00HR 18.6N 113.0E 997HPA 15M/S P12HR NW 10KM/H P+24HR 20.2N 112.0E 995HPA 18M/S= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 281800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TD01 INITIAL TIME 281800 UTC 00HR 18.6N 113.0E 997HPA 15M/S 30KTS 80KM P12HR NW 10KM/H P+24HR 20.2N 112.0E 995HPA 18M/S= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 281800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TD01 INITIAL TIME 281800 UTC 00HR 18.6N 113.0E 997HPA 15M/S 30KTS 80KM P12HR NW 10KM/H P+24HR 20.2N 112.0E 995HPA 18M/S= ** WTSS20 VHHH 281945 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 281800 UTC, TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE EIGHT POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (18.7 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (114.1 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 150 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 291800 UTC TWO ZERO POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (20.1 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (111.1 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 301800 UTC TWO ZERO POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (20.7 N) ONE ZERO EIGHT POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (108.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 311800 UTC TWO ONE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (21.2 N) ONE ZERO FOUR POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (104.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS. ** WTSS20 VHHH 281945 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 281800 UTC, TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE EIGHT POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (18.7 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (114.1 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 150 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 291800 UTC TWO ZERO POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (20.1 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (111.1 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 301800 UTC TWO ZERO POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (20.7 N) ONE ZERO EIGHT POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (108.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 311800 UTC TWO ONE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (21.2 N) ONE ZERO FOUR POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (104.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS. ** WTPQ20 BABJ 281800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TD01 INITIAL TIME 281800 UTC 00HR 18.6N 113.0E 997HPA 15M/S 30KTS 80KM P12HR NW 10KM/H P+24HR 20.2N 112.0E 995HPA 18M/S= ** WTPN31 PGTW 282100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/281721ZJUL2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 281800Z --- NEAR 18.9N 113.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 18.9N 113.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 290600Z --- 19.3N 111.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 291800Z --- 19.6N 110.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 300600Z --- 20.1N 109.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 301800Z --- 20.8N 107.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 311800Z --- 22.0N 105.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 282100Z POSITION NEAR 19.0N 112.7E. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 08W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 205 NM SOUTH- SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY REVEALS AN INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 281721ZJUL2005 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 281730). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281800Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 290300Z, 290900Z, 291500Z AND 292100Z.// ** WTNT41 KNHC 282032 *** TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 30 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT THU JUL 28 2005 DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS...DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT WITH A BAND OF MODERATE CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE BEEN FLUCTUATING BETWEEN 45 AND 55 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND AN EARLIER AMSU CIMSS PRESSURE ESTIMATE CAME IN AT 998 MB..OR 48 KT. GIVEN THE OVERALL IMPROVED APPEARANCE OF FRANKLIN AND THE FASTER FORWARD SPEED POSSIBLY ADDING ANOTHER 5 KT TO THE TOTAL WIND FIELD ON THE EAST SIDE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 50 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 040/15...AS FRANKLIN HAS COME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF INCREASING DEEP-LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW AHEAD OF AN EASTWARD MOVING MID-LATITUDE FRONTAL SYSTEM. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN OUTSTANDING AGREEMENT ON THE DIRECTION OF MOTION...BUT THERE IS A RANGE OF FORWARD SPEEDS WITH THE CANADIAN ...GFS AND GFDL MODELS BEING THE FASTEST...WHILE THE NOGAPS AND GFDN MODELS ARE MUCH SLOWER. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK LEANS TOWARD THE NOGAPS AND GFDN MODELS GIVEN THEIR BETTER OVERALL PERFORMANCE THUS FAR...AND THE FACT THAT FRANKLIN WILL BE MOVING OVER 13-17C SST WATER BY 36 HOURS WHICH SHOULD CAUSE THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION TO DECOUPLE AND REMAIN BEHIND THE FASTER MOVING MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION. NOW THAT FRANKLIN IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD...THE VERTICAL SHEAR ON THE SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW FOR ANOTHER 18 HOURS OR SO...WHICH IS ALSO ABOUT THE TIME THAT THE CYCLONE REACHES MUCH COLDER WATER. THEREFORE...SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE ...WHICH IS ALSO INDICATED NOW BY THE GFDL MODEL. BY 24 HOURS... THOUGH...INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR AND MUCH COLDER WATER SHOULD INDUCE RAPID WEAKENING...ALONG WITH A TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT BY 48 HOURS FRANKLIN COULD ALREADY BE ASORBED BY THE APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK BRINGS TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS VERY CLOSE TO THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN TIP OF NEWFOUNDLAND IN 48 HOURS. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 28/2100Z 37.6N 67.5W 50 KT 12HR VT 29/0600Z 39.3N 65.3W 55 KT 24HR VT 29/1800Z 41.3N 62.0W 50 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 30/0600Z 43.2N 57.9W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 30/1800Z 45.3N 53.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 31/1800Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM $$ ** WTNT21 KNHC 282033 *** TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 30 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062005 2100Z THU JUL 28 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.6N 67.5W AT 28/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 25NE 25SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 80SE 75SW 25NW. 12 FT SEAS..175NE 250SE 75SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.6N 67.5W AT 28/2100Z AT 28/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 37.1N 68.1W FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 39.3N 65.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 35SE 25SW 0NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 41.3N 62.0W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 75SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 43.2N 57.9W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 75SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 45.3N 53.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 75SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 37.6N 67.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0300Z FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTPN31 PGTW 282100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/281721ZJUL2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 281800Z --- NEAR 18.9N 113.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 18.9N 113.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 290600Z --- 19.3N 111.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 291800Z --- 19.6N 110.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 300600Z --- 20.1N 109.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 301800Z --- 20.8N 107.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 311800Z --- 22.0N 105.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 282100Z POSITION NEAR 19.0N 112.7E. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 08W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 205 NM SOUTH- SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY REVEALS AN INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 281721ZJUL2005 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 281730). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281800Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 290300Z, 290900Z, 291500Z AND 292100Z.// ** WTPN31 PGTW 282100 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/281721ZJUL2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 281800Z --- NEAR 18.9N 113.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 18.9N 113.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 290600Z --- 19.3N 111.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 291800Z --- 19.6N 110.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 300600Z --- 20.1N 109.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 301800Z --- 20.8N 107.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 311800Z --- 22.0N 105.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 282100Z POSITION NEAR 19.0N 112.7E. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 08W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 205 NM SOUTH- SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE ** WTPN31 PGTW 282100 RRB *** PAST 06 HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY REVEALS AN INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 281721ZJUL2005 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 281730). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281800Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 290300Z, 290900Z, 291500Z AND 292100Z.// ** WTNT31 KNHC 282038 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN ADVISORY NUMBER 30 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM AST THU JUL 28 2005 ...FRANKLIN GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT ACCELERATES NORTHEASTWARD... ...MAINLY A THREAT TO SHIPPING INTERESTS... AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 67.5 WEST OR ABOUT 395 MILES... 640 KM... NORTH-NORTHWEST OF BERMUDA AND ABOUT 525 MILES... 845 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA. FRANKLIN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION...WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ...IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH... 95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY...BEFORE WEAKENING BEGINS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES ...150 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES. REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...37.6 N... 67.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 997 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM AST. FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT71 KNHC 282039 *** SPFAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN PROBABILITIES NUMBER 30 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM AST THU JUL 28 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF FRANKLIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.5 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2PM AST SUN JUL 31 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 41.3N 62.0W 19 2 X X 21 SABLE ISLAND NS 5 12 1 X 18 43.2N 57.9W 2 14 2 X 18 SYDNEY NS 1 9 2 X 12 45.3N 53.0W X 4 10 X 14 EDDY POINT NS 3 8 1 X 12 EASTPORT ME 1 1 X X 2 PTX BASQUES NFLD X 6 4 X 10 ST JOHN NB 1 2 X X 3 BURGEO NFLD X 7 4 X 11 MONCTON NB 1 2 1 X 4 ILE ST PIERRE X 8 6 X 14 YARMOUTH NS 4 2 X X 6 CAPE RACE NFLD X 4 9 X 13 HALIFAX NS 6 5 X X 11 HIBERNIA OILFLD X X 6 X 6 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM FRI FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2PM FRI TO 2AM SAT C FROM 2AM SAT TO 2PM SAT D FROM 2PM SAT TO 2PM SUN E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM SUN X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT31 KNHC 282038 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN ADVISORY NUMBER 30 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM AST THU JUL 28 2005 ...FRANKLIN GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT ACCELERATES NORTHEASTWARD... ...MAINLY A THREAT TO SHIPPING INTERESTS... AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 67.5 WEST OR ABOUT 395 MILES... 640 KM... NORTH-NORTHWEST OF BERMUDA AND ABOUT 525 MILES... 845 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA. FRANKLIN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION...WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ...IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH... 95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY...BEFORE WEAKENING BEGINS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES ...150 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES. REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...37.6 N... 67.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 997 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM AST. FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTSS20 VHHH 282245 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 282100 UTC, TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE EIGHT POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (18.7 N) ONE ONE THREE POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (113.6 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 150 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 292100 UTC ONE NINE POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (19.8 N) ONE ONE ZERO POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (110.4 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 302100 UTC TWO ZERO POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (20.4 N) ONE ZERO EIGHT POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (108.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 312100 UTC TWO ZERO POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (20.9 N) ONE ZERO FIVE POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (105.6 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS. ** WTSS20 VHHH 282245 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 282100 UTC, TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE EIGHT POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (18.7 N) ONE ONE THREE POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (113.6 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 150 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 292100 UTC ONE NINE POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (19.8 N) ONE ONE ZERO POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (110.4 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 302100 UTC TWO ZERO POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (20.4 N) ONE ZERO EIGHT POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (108.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 312100 UTC TWO ZERO POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (20.9 N) ONE ZERO FIVE POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (105.6 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS.