** WTSR20 WSSS 280600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTSS20 VHHH 281345 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA HAS INTENSIFIED INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 HECTOPASCALS. AT 281200 UTC, IT WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE EIGHT POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (18.5 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (115.0 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 5 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 200 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 291200 UTC ONE NINE POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (19.4 N) ONE ONE THREE POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (113.2 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 301200 UTC TWO ZERO POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (20.6 N) ONE ZERO NINE POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (109.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 311200 UTC TWO ONE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (21.2 N) ONE ZERO FIVE POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (105.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS. ** WTNT41 KNHC 281432 *** TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 29 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT THU JUL 28 2005 THE EARLIER BURST OF CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN ON THE WANE THE PAST FEW HOURS. A 28/0953Z HI-RES QUIKSCAT OVERPASS INDICATED THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAD BEEN IN THE MIDDLE OF THE SMALL CDO... SUGGESTING THAT FRANKLIN MAY HAVE REACHED NEAR 50 KT INTENSITY BETWEEN 06-09Z. THAT INTENSITY IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY AN AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM NESDIS CIRA OF 47 KT AND 998 MB AT 0807Z... AND A 12Z TAFB SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.5/55 KT. HOWEVER ...SINCE THE CONVECTION HAS BEEN DECEASING AND BECOME LESS ORGANIZED...THE INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 45 KT FOR THE TIME BEING. THE WIND RADII WERE TRIMMED BACK SLIGHTLY BASED ON QUIKSCAT DATA. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 020/09. IT APPEARS THAT FRANKLIN IS FINALLY STARTING TO MAKE THE LONG AWAITED TURN TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE WITH GRADUAL ACCELERATION AS THE CYCLONE GETS CAUGHT UP IN THE INCREASING DEEP-LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING MID-LATITUDE FRONTAL SYSTEM CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE THE NORTHEAST U.S. COAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THROUGH 24 HOURS AND THEN COMES BACK ON TRACK AFTER THAT. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE UKMET AND NOGAPS MODELS...WHICH HAVE BEEN THE OVERALL BEST PERFORMING MODELS WITH THIS SYSTEM. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THERE IS STILL ENOUGH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE PROTRUDING NORTHWESTWARD TO THE NORTHEAST OF FRANKLIN...WHICH HAS TEMPORARILY INCREASED THE SHEAR NOW THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW HAS BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY. I WOULD SUSPECT THAT THIS SHEAR PATTERN AND CURRENT DISRUPTION OF THE CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION WILL BE SHORT-LIVED ONCE FRANKLIN MAKES THE TURN AND BEGINS TO ACCELERATE TO THE NORTHEAST IN ANOTHER 6 HOURS OR SO. RECENT SHIP OBS ALSO REVEAL THAT THE 26C SST ISOTHERM ACTUALLY EXTENDS UP TO 40N LATITUDE...ABOUT 2 DEGREES NORTH OF WHAT THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL IS INDICATING. AS SUCH...THERE REMAINS ABOUT ANOTHER 24 HOURS OR SO OF OPPORTUNITY FOR FRANKLIN TO STRENGTHEN WHILE THE VERTICAL REMAINS LOW. AFTERWARDS...THE CYCLONE WILL MOVE OVER MUCH COLDER WATER AND RAPIDLY WEAKEN. IF FRANKLIN MAKES A SLOWER TURN TO THE NORTHEAST THAN CURRENTLY FOREAST...THEN TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS COULD POSSIBLY BRUSH EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND IN 60-72 HOURS. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 28/1500Z 36.2N 69.0W 45 KT 12HR VT 29/0000Z 37.5N 67.5W 50 KT 24HR VT 29/1200Z 39.3N 64.9W 55 KT 36HR VT 30/0000Z 41.1N 61.6W 45 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 30/1200Z 43.0N 57.7W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 31/1200Z 47.0N 48.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 01/1200Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM $$ ** WTNT21 KNHC 281433 *** TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 29 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062005 1500Z THU JUL 28 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.2N 69.0W AT 28/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 25NE 75SE 75SW 25NW. 12 FT SEAS..175NE 250SE 75SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.2N 69.0W AT 28/1500Z AT 28/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 35.8N 69.2W FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 37.5N 67.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 75SE 75SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 39.3N 64.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 35SE 25SW 0NW. 34 KT... 75NE 90SE 75SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 41.1N 61.6W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 75SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 43.0N 57.7W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 75SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 47.0N 48.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.2N 69.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/2100Z FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT31 KNHC 281433 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN ADVISORY NUMBER 29 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM AST THU JUL 28 2005 ...FRANKLIN MOVING OVER THE OPEN NORTH ATLANTIC... ...MAINLY A THREAT TO SHIPPING INTERESTS... AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 69.0 WEST OR ABOUT 360 MILES... 580 KM... NORTHWEST OF BERMUDA AND ABOUT 645 MILES...1040 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA. FRANKLIN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 10 MPH ...17 KM/HR. A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR LATER TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES ...140 KM...MAINLY EAST THROUGH SOUTH OF THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES. REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...36.2 N... 69.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM AST. FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT71 KNHC 281434 *** SPFAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN PROBABILITIES NUMBER 29 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM AST THU JUL 28 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF FRANKLIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.0 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8AM AST SUN JUL 31 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 39.3N 64.9W 28 4 X X 32 HALIFAX NS X 6 7 1 14 41.1N 61.6W 1 19 3 X 23 SABLE ISLAND NS X 4 13 1 18 43.0N 57.7W X 2 13 2 17 SYDNEY NS X 1 9 3 13 NANTUCKET MA 2 2 X X 4 EDDY POINT NS X 2 10 2 14 HYANNIS MA 1 1 X X 2 PTX BASQUES NFLD X X 5 5 10 BAR HARBOR ME X 2 1 X 3 BURGEO NFLD X X 4 7 11 EASTPORT ME X 2 3 X 5 ILE ST PIERRE X X 4 8 12 ST JOHN NB X 2 4 1 7 CAPE RACE NFLD X X 1 10 11 MONCTON NB X 1 5 1 7 HIBERNIA OILFLD X X X 7 7 YARMOUTH NS X 8 3 X 11 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM FRI FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8AM FRI TO 8PM FRI C FROM 8PM FRI TO 8AM SAT D FROM 8AM SAT TO 8AM SUN E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM SUN X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTSS20 VHHH 281645 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 281500 UTC, TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE EIGHT POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (18.6 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (114.7 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 6 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 150 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 291500 UTC ONE NINE POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (19.7 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (112.4 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 301500 UTC TWO ZERO POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (20.6 N) ONE ZERO EIGHT POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (108.6 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 311500 UTC TWO ONE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (21.2 N) ONE ZERO FOUR POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (104.5 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS. ** WTSS20 VHHH 281645 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 281500 UTC, TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE EIGHT POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (18.6 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (114.7 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 6 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 150 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 291500 UTC ONE NINE POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (19.7 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (112.4 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 301500 UTC TWO ZERO POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (20.6 N) ONE ZERO EIGHT POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (108.6 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 311500 UTC TWO ONE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (21.2 N) ONE ZERO FOUR POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (104.5 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS. ** WTNT80 EGRR 281740 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 28.07.2005 NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 12 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+12 : 11.6N 127.0W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 29.07.2005 11.6N 127.0W WEAK 12UTC 29.07.2005 13.8N 128.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 30.07.2005 14.8N 130.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 30.07.2005 15.7N 133.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 31.07.2005 16.9N 136.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 31.07.2005 17.7N 139.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 01.08.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+72 : 8.0N 102.9W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 31.07.2005 8.0N 102.9W WEAK 00UTC 01.08.2005 8.2N 105.9W WEAK INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 12UTC 01.08.2005 8.9N 108.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 02.08.2005 9.7N 110.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 02.08.2005 11.0N 113.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 03.08.2005 12.0N 115.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 03.08.2005 12.8N 117.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN ANALYSED POSITION : 36.0N 68.6W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 28.07.2005 36.0N 68.6W WEAK 00UTC 29.07.2005 38.1N 66.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 29.07.2005 42.2N 63.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 30.07.2005 45.3N 58.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 30.07.2005 50.2N 49.5W EXTRATROPICAL. TROPICAL STORM ANALYSED IN THE MODEL AT POSITION : 9.7N 23.3W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 28.07.2005 9.7N 23.3W WEAK 00UTC 29.07.2005 10.3N 25.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 29.07.2005 10.6N 29.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 30.07.2005 12.1N 32.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 30.07.2005 12.9N 35.6W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 31.07.2005 14.0N 38.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 31.07.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+60 : 23.1N 66.8W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 31.07.2005 23.1N 66.8W WEAK 12UTC 31.07.2005 24.4N 68.5W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 01.08.2005 25.3N 70.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 01.08.2005 25.5N 71.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 02.08.2005 26.2N 72.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 02.08.2005 27.0N 72.9W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 03.08.2005 27.3N 73.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 03.08.2005 27.9N 73.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 281740 ** WTPN21 PGTW 281730 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 281721ZJUL2005// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 135 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 18.5N 114.8E TO 20.6N 111.6E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IM- AGERY AT 281430Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 114.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 114.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 114.4E, APPROXIMATELY 215 NM S OF HONG KONG. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY REVEALS CONVECTION HAS INCREASED AND CONSOLIDATED AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRC- ULATION CENTER (LLCC). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES AN INCREASE IN 850 MB VORTICITY AND THE LLCC HAS MOVED INTO AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOWER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. DUE TO THE INCREASE IN CONVECTION AND SURFACE INFLOW, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 291730Z.// ** WTPN21 PGTW 281730 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 281721ZJUL2005// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 135 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 18.5N 114.8E TO 20.6N 111.6E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IM- AGERY AT 281430Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 114.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 114.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 114.4E, APPROXIMATELY 215 NM S OF HONG KONG. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY REVEALS CONVECTION HAS INCREASED AND CONSOLIDATED AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRC- ULATION CENTER (LLCC). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES AN INCREASE IN 850 MB VORTICITY AND THE LLCC HAS MOVED INTO AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOWER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. DUE TO THE INCREASE IN CONVECTION AND SURFACE INFLOW, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 291730Z.//