** WTNT21 KNHC 280841 *** TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062005 0900Z THU JUL 28 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.5N 69.2W AT 28/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 90SE 90SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS..175NE 250SE 75SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.5N 69.2W AT 28/0900Z AT 28/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 35.0N 69.3W FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 36.5N 68.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 90SE 90SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 38.0N 66.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 40.1N 63.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 42.4N 59.3W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 46.5N 49.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 35.5N 69.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/1500Z FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT71 KNHC 280842 *** SPFAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN PROBABILITIES NUMBER 28 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM AST THU JUL 28 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF FRANKLIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 35.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.2 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2AM AST SUN JUL 31 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 38.0N 66.2W 25 2 X X 27 HALIFAX NS X 3 8 1 12 40.1N 63.2W 1 16 4 X 21 SABLE ISLAND NS X 1 11 3 15 42.4N 59.3W X 1 12 3 16 SYDNEY NS X X 6 6 12 BERMUDA X 1 1 X 2 EDDY POINT NS X 1 8 3 12 NANTUCKET MA X 2 X X 2 PTX BASQUES NFLD X X 3 7 10 BAR HARBOR ME X 1 1 X 2 BURGEO NFLD X X 2 8 10 EASTPORT ME X 1 2 1 4 ILE ST PIERRE X X 2 9 11 ST JOHN NB X 1 4 1 6 CAPE RACE NFLD X X X 10 10 MONCTON NB X 1 3 2 6 HIBERNIA OILFLD X X X 7 7 YARMOUTH NS X 4 5 X 9 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM FRI FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2AM FRI TO 2PM FRI C FROM 2PM FRI TO 2AM SAT D FROM 2AM SAT TO 2AM SUN E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM SUN X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT31 KNHC 280842 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN ADVISORY NUMBER 28 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM AST THU JUL 28 2005 ...FRANKLIN MOVING NORTHWARD BUT BEGINNING TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST... AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 35.5 NORTH... LONGITUDE 69.2 WEST OR ABOUT 335 MILES... 540 KM... NORTHWEST OF BERMUDA. FRANKLIN IS MOVING JUST EAST OF DUE NORTH NEAR 9 MPH ...15 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES... 165 KM... MAINLY TO THE SOUTH FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES. REPEATING THE 5 AM AST POSITION...35.5 N... 69.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM AST. FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTCA41 TJSJ 280857 *** TCPSP1 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL FRANKLIN ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 28 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 5 AM AST JUEVES 28 DE JULIO DE 2005 ...FRANKLIN MOVIENDOSE HACIA EL NORTE PERO COMENZANDO A MOVERSE AL NORESTE... A LAS 5 AM AST...0900Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL FRANKLIN ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 35.5 GRADOS NORTE...LONGITUD 69.2 GRADOS OESTE O COMO A 335 MILLAS...584 KM...AL NOROESTE DE BERMUDA. FRANKLIN SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORTE A CERCA DE 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. UN GIRO HACIA EL NORESTE A UNA VELOCIDAD DE TRASLACION MAYOR SE ESPERA DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 105 MILLAS...165 KM...PRINCIPALMENTE AL SUR DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1000 MB...29.53 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 5 AM...35.5 NORTE... 69.2 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO...HACIA EL NORTE A CERCA DE 9 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 50 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1000 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 11 AM AST. PRONOSTICADOR KNABB $$ ** WTNT41 KNHC 280900 *** TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 28 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT THU JUL 28 2005 A DEEP BURST OF CONVECTION OCCURRED NEAR THE ESTIMATED CENTER LOCATION BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 06Z FROM TAFB AND SAB REMAINED 45 KT... BUT SINCE THEN THE CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED SUBSTANTIALLY... SO FRANKLIN DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE STRENGTHENING AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY REMAINS 45 KT. A SHORT WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY... ABOUT 24 HOURS... EXISTS FOR FRANKLIN TO STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY. WEAKENING WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT OF INCREASING WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS ANTICIPATED THEREAFTER UNTIL FRANKLIN BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL AND MERGES WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM IN ABOUT 3-4 DAYS. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS MOSTLY OBSCURED BY THE CONVECTION AND CIRRUS OUTFLOW... BUT BASED ON EARLIER MICROWAVE OVERPASSES FROM SSMI AND AMSU... THE CENTER OF FRANKLIN APPEARS TO NOW BE MOVING A BIT FASTER AND SLIGHTLY EAST OF DUE NORTH. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 010/8. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM CURRENTLY EMERGING OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES SHOULD INDUCE A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST TODAY AND A STEADY INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS AGREE ON THE HEADING BUT... AS USUAL IN CASES OF RECURVATURE AND EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION... PROVIDE WIDELY VARYING SOLUTIONS ON THE SPEED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY... ALTHOUGH JUST A LITTLE SLOWER TO BLEND WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS. FORECASTER KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 28/0900Z 35.5N 69.2W 45 KT 12HR VT 28/1800Z 36.5N 68.2W 50 KT 24HR VT 29/0600Z 38.0N 66.2W 55 KT 36HR VT 29/1800Z 40.1N 63.2W 50 KT 48HR VT 30/0600Z 42.4N 59.3W 40 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 31/0600Z 46.5N 49.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 01/0600Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM $$