** WTSR20 WSSS 271800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 280000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME DEVELOPED LOW FORMER TS 0507 BANYAN (0507) ANALYSIS PSTN 280000UTC 46N 150E MOVE N 15KT PRES 984HPA MXWD 040KT 30KT 260NM EAST 150NM WEST = ** WTKO20 RKSL 280000 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 8 NAME LOW 0507 BANYAN ANALYSIS POSITION 280000UTC 46.4N 149.6E MOVEMENT N 15KT PRES 985HPA KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTNT71 KNHC 280231 *** SPFAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN PROBABILITIES NUMBER 27 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM AST WED JUL 27 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF FRANKLIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.4 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8PM AST SAT JUL 30 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 37.3N 67.1W 30 4 X X 34 HALIFAX NS X X 7 4 11 39.3N 64.4W X 18 6 X 24 SABLE ISLAND NS X X 7 7 14 41.8N 60.3W X X 12 4 16 SYDNEY NS X X 2 9 11 NANTUCKET MA X 3 1 X 4 EDDY POINT NS X X 4 7 11 HYANNIS MA X 2 1 X 3 PTX BASQUES NFLD X X X 9 9 BAR HARBOR ME X X 2 X 2 BURGEO NFLD X X X 9 9 EASTPORT ME X X 3 1 4 ILE ST PIERRE X X X 10 10 ST JOHN NB X X 3 3 6 CAPE RACE NFLD X X X 9 9 MONCTON NB X X 3 3 6 HIBERNIA OILFLD X X X 5 5 YARMOUTH NS X 1 6 2 9 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM THU FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8PM THU TO 8AM FRI C FROM 8AM FRI TO 8PM FRI D FROM 8PM FRI TO 8PM SAT E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM SAT X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT31 KNHC 280232 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN ADVISORY NUMBER 27 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM AST WED JUL 27 2005 ...FRANKLIN MOVING NORTHWARD BETWEEN THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND BERMUDA WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH... AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.4 WEST OR ABOUT 300 MILES... 480 KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF BERMUDA. FRANKLIN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 6 MPH... 9 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT A FASTER FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM MAINLY SOUTH THROUGH WEST OF THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES. REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...34.3 N... 69.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM AST. FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT41 KNHC 280232 *** TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 27 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT WED JUL 27 2005 WHILE FRANKLIN CONTINUES TO GENERATE COLD CONVECTIVE TOPS...COLDER THAN -70C...A 0055Z SSM/I OVERPASS INDICATES THAT NO WRAPPING OF THE CONVECTION HAS OCCURRED SINCE THIS AFTERNOON. INDEED...THE THE MICROWAVE DATA SHOWS THE CENTER IS AGAIN EXPOSED TO THE NORTH OF THE MAIN CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH UNDER THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW. WHILE THE REASON FOR THIS IS NOT CLEAR...IT SUGGESTS THAT FRANKLIN IS NO STRONGER THAN IT WAS 6 HR AGO. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 45 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB. THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 360/5...WITH THE MICROWAVE DATA SUGGESTING FRANKLING MIGHT BE MOVING A LITTLE FASTER. THE TRACK FORECAST IS STRAIGHTFORWARD. FRANKLIN IS BETWEEN A BUILDING DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND A MID/YUPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS COMBINATION SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN FRANKLIN NORTHEASTWARD IN THE NEXT 12-24 HR...WITH GRADUAL ACCELERATION TOWARD THE NORTHEAST THEREAFTER. ALL TRACK GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO...BUT SLIGHTLY LEFT OF...THE PREVIOUS TRACK. VERTICAL SHEAR IS DECREASING OVER FRANKLIN AS THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES GENERALLY SOUTHERLY OVER THE STORM. THIS ALLOWS A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR FRANKLIN TO STRENGTHEN BEFORE THE APPROACHING TROUGH INCREASES THE SHEAR...AND THE STORM MOVES NORTH OF THE GULF STREAM. BOTH OF THESE SHOULD OCCUR IN 24-36 HR. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR STRENGTHENING TO 55 KT IN 24 HR...FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING AS FRANKLIN MERGES WITH THE COLD FRONT AND BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT 55 KT IS HIGHER THAN EITHER THE SHIPS OR THE GFDL MODELS ARE FORECASTING. AFTER EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION...FRANKLIN WILL LIKELY BE ABSORBED BY THE FRONT IN 72-96 HR. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 28/0300Z 34.3N 69.4W 45 KT 12HR VT 28/1200Z 35.5N 69.0W 50 KT 24HR VT 29/0000Z 37.3N 67.1W 55 KT 36HR VT 29/1200Z 39.3N 64.4W 55 KT 48HR VT 30/0000Z 41.8N 60.3W 45 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 31/0000Z 46.0N 51.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 01/0000Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM $$ ** WTNT21 KNHC 280232 *** TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062005 0300Z THU JUL 28 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.3N 69.4W AT 28/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 90SE 90SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS..175NE 250SE 75SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.3N 69.4W AT 28/0300Z AT 28/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.0N 69.4W FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 35.5N 69.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 37.3N 67.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 39.3N 64.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 41.8N 60.3W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 46.0N 51.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.3N 69.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0900Z FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT31 KNHC 280232 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN ADVISORY NUMBER 27 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM AST WED JUL 27 2005 ...FRANKLIN MOVING NORTHWARD BETWEEN THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND BERMUDA WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH... AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.4 WEST OR ABOUT 300 MILES... 480 KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF BERMUDA. FRANKLIN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 6 MPH... 9 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT A FASTER FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM MAINLY SOUTH THROUGH WEST OF THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES. REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...34.3 N... 69.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM AST. FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTCA41 TJSJ 280247 *** TCPSP1 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL FRANKLIN ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 27 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 11 PM AST MIERCOLES 27 DE JULIO DE 2005 ...FRANKLIN MOVIENDOSE HACIA EL NORTE ENTRE EL ESTE DE LOS ESTADOS UNIDOS Y BERMUDA CON POCO CAMBIO EN FORTALEZA... A LAS 11 PM AST...0300Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL FRANKLIN ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 34.3 GRADOS NORTE...LONGITUD 69.4 GRADOS OESTE O COMO A 300 MILLAS...480 KM...AL OESTE-NOROESTE DE BERMUDA. FRANKLIN SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORTE A CERCA DE 6 MPH...9 KM/HR. SE ESPERA UN GIRO GRADUAL HACIA EL NORESTE A UNA VELOCIDAD DE TRASLACION MAYOR DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICAN ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 105 MILLAS...165 KM...PRINCIPALMENTE AL OESTE DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1000 MB...29.53 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 11 PM...34.3 NORTE... 69.4 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO...HACIA EL NORTE A CERCA DE 6 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 50 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1000 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 5 AM AST. PRONOSTICADOR BEVEN $$ ** WTNT80 EGRR 280551 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 28.07.2005 NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 12 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+12 : 12.8N 122.0W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 28.07.2005 12.8N 122.0W WEAK 00UTC 29.07.2005 13.7N 124.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 29.07.2005 13.9N 127.0W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 30.07.2005 15.3N 129.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 30.07.2005 16.2N 132.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 31.07.2005 17.2N 135.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 31.07.2005 17.7N 139.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 01.08.2005 18.5N 143.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 01.08.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+48 : 8.4N 99.6W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 30.07.2005 8.4N 99.6W WEAK 12UTC 30.07.2005 8.7N 103.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 31.07.2005 8.7N 105.3W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 31.07.2005 9.3N 107.1W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 01.08.2005 9.7N 109.4W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 01.08.2005 10.4N 111.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 02.08.2005 11.1N 114.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 02.08.2005 11.2N 117.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 03.08.2005 12.2N 119.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN ANALYSED POSITION : 34.3N 69.3W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 28.07.2005 34.3N 69.3W WEAK 12UTC 28.07.2005 35.4N 68.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 29.07.2005 36.8N 67.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 29.07.2005 38.5N 64.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 30.07.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM ANALYSED IN THE MODEL AT POSITION : 9.6N 20.5W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 28.07.2005 9.6N 20.5W WEAK 12UTC 28.07.2005 9.6N 22.9W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 29.07.2005 9.7N 25.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 29.07.2005 10.7N 28.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 30.07.2005 11.5N 31.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 30.07.2005 12.6N 33.9W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 31.07.2005 13.7N 36.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 31.07.2005 14.5N 39.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 01.08.2005 15.6N 42.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 01.08.2005 17.2N 45.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 02.08.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 280551 ** WTIN20 DEMS 280600 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS -RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 28-07-2004(.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTIVE CLOUDS OVER PARTS OF NORTH AND ADJOINING CENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL . CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE ALSO SEEN OVER PARTS OF ANDAMAN SEA AND PARTS OF SOUTHEAST ARABIAN SEA. RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 30 DEG. NORTH OVER INDIAN REGION (.)