** WTJP21 RJTD 271800 *** WARNING 271800. WARNING VALID 281800. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. GALE WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0507 BANYAN (0507) 980 HPA AT 44.9N 149.2E SEA AROUND KURILS MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 21 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 260 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 130 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 280600UTC AT 47.3N 151.7E WITH 60 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 984 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS. BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW. FORECAST POSITION FOR 281800UTC AT 48.8N 154.4E WITH 100 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 984 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS. BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 271800 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0507 BANYAN (0507) ANALYSIS PSTN 271800UTC 44.9N 149.2E FAIR MOVE NNE 21KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 040KT 30KT 260NM EAST 130NM WEST FORECAST 24HF 281800UTC 48.8N 154.4E 100NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTNT41 KNHC 272032 *** TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 26 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT WED JUL 27 2005 DEEP CONVECTION...WITH TOPS COLDER THAN -80C...HAVE DEVELOPED UP THE WEST SIDE OF AND VERY NEAR THE NOW PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS INCREASED TO 45 KT BASED ON A SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.0/45 KT FROM TAFB AT 18Z. HOWEVER...SINCE THAT TIME...OBJECTIVE DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE BEEN RUNNING CLOSE TO T3.3/51 KT. THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS SLOWLY IMPROVING IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE...BUT IS RESTRICTED ELSEWHERE. THROUGH 18Z...FRANKLIN HAD BEEN MOVING AT 340/05...BUT OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS THE MOTION APPEARS TO BE 360/06...AND THAT IS WHAT WAS USED FOR THIS ADVISORY. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. FRANKLIN SHOULD MOVE NORTHWARD FOR THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS BEFORE TURNING NORTHEASTWARD BY 24 HOURS AS A SHARP MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM REACH THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. COAST BY 48 HOURS. THE DEEP-LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD GRADUALLY ACCELERATE FRANKLIN TO THE NORTHEAST OVER COLDER WATER WHERE THE CYCLONE WILL WEAKEN AND EVENTUALLY BECOME ABSORBED BY THE FRONTAL SYSTEM. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS CLOSE TO THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS NOW THAT THE UKMET HAS COME BACK INTO THE FOLD. THE UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR VECTOR HAS BEEN GRADUALLY VEERING FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST TODAY...AND MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT VEERING OF THE SHEAR VECTOR WILL CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER 24 HOURS OR SO. THIS PATTERN...COUPLED WITH DECREASING WIND SHEAR VALUES AS LOW AS 5 KT...SHOULD RESULT INC CONVECTION GRADUALLY DEVELOPING OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SOME MODEST INTENSIFICATION...AND PERHAPS EVEN ALLOW FRANKLIN TO BRIEFLY REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH BY ABOUT 24 HOURS. AFTER THAT...FRANKLIN IS EXPECTED TO REACH MUCH COLDER SSTS BY 48 HOURS...WHICH SHOULD HELP TO BRING ABOUT RAPID WEAKENING. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE SHIPS MODEL AND MUCH HIGHER...MORE THAN 25 KT...THAN THE GFDL MODEL. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 27/2100Z 33.9N 69.3W 45 KT 12HR VT 28/0600Z 35.2N 68.6W 50 KT 24HR VT 28/1800Z 37.0N 67.1W 55 KT 36HR VT 29/0600Z 38.8N 64.8W 45 KT 48HR VT 29/1800Z 40.9N 61.5W 35 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 30/1800Z 45.0N 53.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 31/1800Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM $$ ** WTNT21 KNHC 272033 *** TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062005 2100Z WED JUL 27 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.9N 69.3W AT 27/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 90SE 90SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS..175NE 250SE 75SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.9N 69.3W AT 27/2100Z AT 27/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.6N 69.3W FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 35.2N 68.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 25SE 25SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 90SE 90SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 37.0N 67.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 0NW. 34 KT... 75NE 90SE 90SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 38.8N 64.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 40.9N 61.5W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 45.0N 53.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 31/1800Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.9N 69.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0300Z FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT71 KNHC 272034 *** SPFAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN PROBABILITIES NUMBER 26 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM AST WED JUL 27 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF FRANKLIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.3 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2PM AST SAT JUL 30 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 37.0N 67.1W 26 4 X X 30 ST JOHN NB X X 3 3 6 38.8N 64.8W X 16 4 X 20 MONCTON NB X X 2 4 6 40.9N 61.5W X 1 11 3 15 YARMOUTH NS X X 6 3 9 BERMUDA X 2 1 1 4 HALIFAX NS X X 5 5 10 MONTAUK POINT NY X 1 X 1 2 SABLE ISLAND NS X X 3 9 12 PROVIDENCE RI X 1 1 X 2 SYDNEY NS X X 1 8 9 NANTUCKET MA X 3 3 X 6 EDDY POINT NS X X 2 8 10 HYANNIS MA X 2 2 1 5 PTX BASQUES NFLD X X X 7 7 BOSTON MA X 1 1 X 2 BURGEO NFLD X X X 8 8 PORTLAND ME X X 1 1 2 ILE ST PIERRE X X X 8 8 BAR HARBOR ME X X 3 1 4 CAPE RACE NFLD X X X 7 7 EASTPORT ME X X 3 2 5 HIBERNIA OILFLD X X X 3 3 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM THU FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2PM THU TO 2AM FRI C FROM 2AM FRI TO 2PM FRI D FROM 2PM FRI TO 2PM SAT E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM SAT X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT31 KNHC 272038 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN ADVISORY NUMBER 26 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM AST WED JUL 27 2005 ...FRANKLIN MOVING NORTHWARD AND RE-STRENGTHENING... AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.9 NORTH... LONGITUDE 69.3 WEST OR ABOUT 285 MILES... 455 KM... WEST-NORTHWEST OF BERMUDA. FRANKLIN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...AT A FASTER FORWARD SPEED...EXPECTED ON THURSDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES ...165 KM...MAINLY SOUTH THROUGH WEST OF THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES. REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...33.9 N... 69.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM AST. FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT71 KNHC 272038 *** SPFAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN PROBABILITIES NUMBER 26 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM AST WED JUL 27 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF FRANKLIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.3 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2PM AST SAT JUL 30 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 37.0N 67.1W 26 4 X X 30 ST JOHN NB X X 3 3 6 38.8N 64.8W X 16 4 X 20 MONCTON NB X X 2 4 6 40.9N 61.5W X 1 11 3 15 YARMOUTH NS X X 6 3 9 BERMUDA X 2 1 1 4 HALIFAX NS X X 5 5 10 MONTAUK POINT NY X 1 X 1 2 SABLE ISLAND NS X X 3 9 12 PROVIDENCE RI X 1 1 X 2 SYDNEY NS X X 1 8 9 NANTUCKET MA X 3 3 X 6 EDDY POINT NS X X 2 8 10 HYANNIS MA X 2 2 1 5 PTX BASQUES NFLD X X X 7 7 BOSTON MA X 1 1 X 2 BURGEO NFLD X X X 8 8 PORTLAND ME X X 1 1 2 ILE ST PIERRE X X X 8 8 BAR HARBOR ME X X 3 1 4 CAPE RACE NFLD X X X 7 7 EASTPORT ME X X 3 2 5 HIBERNIA OILFLD X X X 3 3 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM THU FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2PM THU TO 2AM FRI C FROM 2AM FRI TO 2PM FRI D FROM 2PM FRI TO 2PM SAT E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM SAT X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTPQ20 RJTD 272100 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0507 BANYAN (0507) ANALYSIS PSTN 272100UTC 45.5N 149.7E FAIR MOVE NNE 18KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 040KT 30KT 260NM EAST 150NM WEST FORECAST 24HF 282100UTC 48.6N 154.7E 100NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTPQ20 RJTD 272100 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0507 BANYAN (0507) ANALYSIS PSTN 272100UTC 45.5N 149.7E FAIR MOVE NNE 18KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 040KT 30KT 260NM EAST 150NM WEST FORECAST 24HF 282100UTC 48.6N 154.7E 100NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =