** WTSR20 WSSS 270600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTJP21 RJTD 271200 *** WARNING 271200. WARNING VALID 281200. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. GALE WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0507 BANYAN (0507) DOWNGRADED FROM SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 980 HPA AT 42.9N 148.3E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHEAST 20 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 280000UTC AT 46.0N 151.1E WITH 60 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION FOR 281200UTC AT 48.0N 153.8E WITH 100 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS. BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 271200 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0507 BANYAN (0507) DOWNGRADED FROM STS ANALYSIS PSTN 271200UTC 42.9N 148.3E FAIR MOVE NE 20KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 045KT 30KT 300NM EAST 150NM WEST FORECAST 24HF 281200UTC 48.0N 153.8E 100NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTNT41 KNHC 271437 *** TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 25 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT WED JUL 27 2005 THE LOW LEVEL CENTER REMAINS EXPOSED ON THE NORTH SIDE OF A LARGE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...CLOUD TOPS HAVE COOLED TO -80C AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED CLOSER TO THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. A 1017Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS INDICATED SEVERAL UNFLAGGED 35-KT WIND VECTORS IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE... INCLUDING A FEW 40-KT UNFLAGGED VECTORS. THIS IS THE BASIS FOR INCREASING THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 40 KT AND FOR MODIFYING THE 34-KT WIND RADII. FRANKLIN CONTINUES TO MAKE SMALL WOBBLES ABOUT A MEAN MOTION TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST...OR 335/05. AS A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EASTWARD...THE STEERING FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BECOME BETTER DEFINED FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS SHOULD HELP TO ACCELERATE FRANKLIN TO THE NORTH AND EVENTUALLY NORTHEAST. HOWEVER...UNTIL THE DEEP-LAYER STEERING FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED...FRANKLIN MAY CONTINUE TO MAKE SMALL WOBBLES IN THE TRACK...BUT GENERALLY IN A NORTHWARD DIRECTION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK THROUGH 24 HOURS...BUT ONLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MORE WESTWARD INITIAL POSITION...AND IS THEN BASICALLY BACK ON TRACK AFTER THAT. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH 36 HOURS. AFTER THAT...THE TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE GFS...GFDL...AND NOGAPS MODELS SINCE THE UKMET TRACKER ALGORITHM ERRONEOUSLY LOCKED ONTO AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW OVER THE FAR NORTHERN CANADIAN MARITIMES. DEEP CONVECTION HAS GRADUALLY BEEN REDEVELOPING AND PROPAGATING UP THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST SIDE OF THE CYCLONE OVER THE PAST 3-4 HOURS. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR VECTOR SHIFTING FROM THE NORTH TO THE EAST. THE SHIPS MODEL AND SOME OF THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE SHEAR VECTOR WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SWING AROUND FROM EAST TO SOUTH AND FINALLY SOUTHWEST BY 36 HOURS ...WITH SHEAR VALUES ONLY AROUND 5 KT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR DEEP CONVECTION TO GRADUALLY DEVELOP OVER OR NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER AND BRING ABOUT AT LEAST SOME MODEST RE-INTENSIFICATION UNTIL FRANKLIN REACHES MUCH COLDER SSTS IN 42-48 HOURS AND WEAKENS AGAIN. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 27/1500Z 33.4N 69.2W 40 KT 12HR VT 28/0000Z 34.5N 69.1W 40 KT 24HR VT 28/1200Z 36.4N 67.8W 45 KT 36HR VT 29/0000Z 38.4N 65.7W 45 KT 48HR VT 29/1200Z 40.4N 62.8W 35 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 30/1200Z 44.5N 55.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 31/1200Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM $$ ** WTNT21 KNHC 271437 *** TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062005 1500Z WED JUL 27 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.4N 69.2W AT 27/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 90SE 90SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..175NE 250SE 75SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.4N 69.2W AT 27/1500Z AT 27/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.2N 69.1W FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 34.5N 69.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 90SE 90SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 36.4N 67.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 90SE 90SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 38.4N 65.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 40.4N 62.8W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 44.5N 55.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 31/1200Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.4N 69.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/2100Z FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT31 KNHC 271439 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN ADVISORY NUMBER 25 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM AST WED JUL 27 2005 ...FRANKLIN MOVING ERRATICALLY TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST... AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE 69.2 WEST OR ABOUT 265 MILES... 430 KM... WEST-NORTHWEST OF BERMUDA. FRANKLIN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH... 9 KM/HR... AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH... 75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES ...165 KM...MAINLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES. REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...33.4 N... 69.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM AST. FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT71 KNHC 271441 *** SPFAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN PROBABILITIES NUMBER 25 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM AST WED JUL 27 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF FRANKLIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.2 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8AM AST SAT JUL 30 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 36.4N 67.8W 37 1 X X 38 ST JOHN NB X X 1 6 7 38.4N 65.7W 1 18 3 X 22 MONCTON NB X X 1 6 7 40.4N 62.8W X 1 12 3 16 YARMOUTH NS X X 5 5 10 BERMUDA X 1 1 X 2 HALIFAX NS X X 2 8 10 MONTAUK POINT NY X 1 1 1 3 SABLE ISLAND NS X X 1 10 11 PROVIDENCE RI X 1 2 1 4 SYDNEY NS X X X 9 9 NANTUCKET MA X 2 5 X 7 EDDY POINT NS X X X 9 9 HYANNIS MA X 1 4 1 6 PTX BASQUES NFLD X X X 7 7 BOSTON MA X X 3 1 4 BURGEO NFLD X X X 7 7 PORTLAND ME X X 2 2 4 ILE ST PIERRE X X X 7 7 BAR HARBOR ME X X 2 4 6 CAPE RACE NFLD X X X 5 5 EASTPORT ME X X 2 5 7 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM THU FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8AM THU TO 8PM THU C FROM 8PM THU TO 8AM FRI D FROM 8AM FRI TO 8AM SAT E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM SAT X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTPQ20 RJTD 271500 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0507 BANYAN (0507) ANALYSIS PSTN 271500UTC 43.8N 148.8E FAIR MOVE NNE 17KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 045KT 30KT 300NM EAST 150NM WEST FORECAST 24HF 281500UTC 48.5N 153.5E 100NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTPQ20 RJTD 271500 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0507 BANYAN (0507) ANALYSIS PSTN 271500UTC 43.8N 148.8E FAIR MOVE NNE 17KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 045KT 30KT 300NM EAST 150NM WEST FORECAST 24HF 281500UTC 48.5N 153.5E 100NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTNT80 EGRR 271723 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 27.07.2005 TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN ANALYSED POSITION : 33.1N 69.0W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 27.07.2005 33.1N 69.0W WEAK 00UTC 28.07.2005 34.6N 68.3W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 28.07.2005 36.4N 67.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 29.07.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 12 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+12 : 9.7N 20.3W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 28.07.2005 9.7N 20.3W WEAK 12UTC 28.07.2005 10.2N 23.8W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 29.07.2005 10.2N 25.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 29.07.2005 11.0N 28.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 30.07.2005 11.8N 31.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 30.07.2005 12.7N 34.4W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 31.07.2005 13.7N 37.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 31.07.2005 14.7N 39.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 271723