** WTIN20 DEMS 270607 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE NEW DELHI 27-07-2005 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTIVE CLOUDS OVER PARTS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL. CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE ALSO SEEN OVER PARTS OF ANDAMAN SEA AND NORTH EAST ARABIAN SEA OFF KONKAN AND GOA AND KARNATAKA COAST (.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 30 DEG. NORTH OVER INDIAN REGION (.) ** WTPQ20 BABJ 270600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS BANYAN 0507 (0507) INITIAL TIME 270600 UTC 00HR 41.1N 146.4E 985HPA 23M/S 30KTS 400KM P12HR NE 40KM/H P+24HR 46.9N 152.5E 995HPA 18M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 270600 *** WARNING 270600. WARNING VALID 280600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0507 BANYAN (0507) 980 HPA AT 41.4N 146.4E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 26 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 271800UTC AT 44.7N 149.7E WITH 60 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION FOR 280600UTC AT 47.1N 152.6E WITH 100 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS. BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 270600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0507 BANYAN (0507) ANALYSIS PSTN 270600UTC 41.4N 146.4E FAIR MOVE NNE 26KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 050KT 30KT 300NM EAST 150NM WEST FORECAST 24HF 280600UTC 47.1N 152.6E 100NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTJP21 RJTD 270600 *** WARNING 270600. WARNING VALID 280600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0507 BANYAN (0507) 980 HPA AT 41.4N 146.4E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 26 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 271800UTC AT 44.7N 149.7E WITH 60 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION FOR 280600UTC AT 47.1N 152.6E WITH 100 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS. BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 270600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0507 BANYAN (0507) ANALYSIS PSTN 270600UTC 41.4N 146.4E FAIR MOVE NNE 26KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 050KT 30KT 300NM EAST 150NM WEST FORECAST 24HF 280600UTC 47.1N 152.6E 100NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTPQ30 RJTD 270600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO.13 FOR STS 0507 BANYAN (0507) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 270600 UTC IS FAIR. STS WILL DECELERATE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. STS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST STS WILL BE GRADED DOWN TO TS WITHIN 12 HOURS. STS WILL WEAKEN BECAUSE CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO STAY IN LOW SST AR EA FI-NUMBER WILL BE 2.0 AFTER 24 HOURS. STS WILL BE TRANSFORMED TO EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 24 HOURS.= ** WTNT31 KNHC 270834 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN ADVISORY NUMBER 24 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM AST WED JUL 27 2005 ...FRANKLIN MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD... AT 5 AM AST... 0900Z... THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR BERMUDA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA... PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 5 AM AST... 0900Z... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.1 NORTH... LONGITUDE 68.8 WEST OR ABOUT 240 MILES... 385 KM... WEST-NORTHWEST OF BERMUDA. FRANKLIN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 7 MPH... 11 KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES... 165 KM... MAINLY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES. REPEATING THE 5 AM AST POSITION...33.1 N... 68.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM AST. FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT21 KNHC 270834 *** TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062005 0900Z WED JUL 27 2005 AT 5 AM AST... 0900Z... THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR BERMUDA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.1N 68.8W AT 27/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..175NE 250SE 75SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.1N 68.8W AT 27/0900Z AT 27/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.8N 68.8W FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 34.1N 68.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 35.7N 68.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 37.6N 66.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 39.7N 64.5W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 43.5N 56.5W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 31/0600Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.1N 68.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/1500Z FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT71 KNHC 270835 *** SPFAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN PROBABILITIES NUMBER 24 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM AST WED JUL 27 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF FRANKLIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.8 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2AM AST SAT JUL 30 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 35.7N 68.2W 36 1 X X 37 EASTPORT ME X X 1 6 7 37.6N 66.9W 3 17 1 1 22 ST JOHN NB X X 1 7 8 39.7N 64.5W X 2 11 3 16 MONCTON NB X X X 7 7 BERMUDA X 2 2 1 5 YARMOUTH NS X X 3 7 10 NEW YORK CITY NY X X 1 1 2 HALIFAX NS X X 1 9 10 MONTAUK POINT NY X 1 3 2 6 SABLE ISLAND NS X X X 10 10 PROVIDENCE RI X X 4 2 6 SYDNEY NS X X X 8 8 NANTUCKET MA X 1 7 1 9 EDDY POINT NS X X X 9 9 HYANNIS MA X 1 5 2 8 PTX BASQUES NFLD X X X 6 6 BOSTON MA X X 4 2 6 BURGEO NFLD X X X 5 5 PORTLAND ME X X 2 3 5 ILE ST PIERRE X X X 5 5 BAR HARBOR ME X X 2 5 7 CAPE RACE NFLD X X X 3 3 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM THU FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2AM THU TO 2PM THU C FROM 2PM THU TO 2AM FRI D FROM 2AM FRI TO 2AM SAT E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM SAT X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTCA41 TJSJ 270848 *** TCPSP1 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL FRANKLIN ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 24 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 5 AM AST MIERCOLES 27 DE JULIO DE 2005 ...FRANKLIN MOVIENDOSE LENTAMENTE AL NORTE... A LAS 5 AM AST...0900Z...EL SERVICIO DE METEOROLOGIA DE BERMUDA HA DESCONTINUADO LA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA BERMUDA. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA EN SU AREA...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DE METEOROLOGIA. A LAS 5 AM AST...0900Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL FRANKLIN ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 33.1 NORTE...LONGITUD 68.8 OESTE O COMO A 240 MILLAS...385 KM...AL OESTE NOROESTE DE BERMUDA. FRANKLIN SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORTE A CERCA DE 7 MPH...11 KM/HR...Y ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL SE ESPERA QUE CONTINUE POR LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICAN POCOS CAMBIOS EN INTENSIDAD DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 105 MILLAS...165 KM...PRINCIPALMENTE AL SUR Y ESTE DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1005 MB...29.68 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 5 AM...33.1 NORTE... 68.6 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO...HACIA EL NORTE. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 40 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1005 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 11 AM AST. PRONOSTICADOR KNABB $$ ** WTNT41 KNHC 270859 *** TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 24 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT WED JUL 27 2005 THE LOW LEVEL CENTER OF FRANKLIN HAS ONCE AGAIN BECOME EXPOSED... TO THE NORTH OF A LIMITED AREA OF CONVECTION THAT IS STILL FAIRLY DEEP... WITH TOPS AS COLD AS ABOUT -70 DEGREES CELSIUS. WHILE THE SYSTEM IS SHEARED... THE LOW LEVEL CENTER IS STILL CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE CONVECTION SUCH THAT DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB REMAIN 35 KT... SO FRANKLIN HANGS ON AS A 35 KT TROPICAL STORM ON THIS ADVISORY. WHILE THE CONVECTION HAS NOT MOVED MUCH DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS... THE LOW LEVEL CENTER HAS BEEN MOVING STEADILY TOWARD THE NORTH AT ABOUT 6 KT. THIS COULD BE THE END OF THE ERRATIC MOTION AND THE START OF THE LONG-AWAITED ACCELERATION TO THE NORTH AND EVENTUALLY THE NORTHEAST... AHEAD OF THE MIDLATITUDE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT NOW APPROACHING THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. IT WILL PROBABLY TAKE FRANKLIN ABOUT 24 MORE HOURS... WHILE A RIDGE BUILDS TO ITS EAST AND THE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST... TO BEGIN MOVING MUCH FASTER AND MORE NORTHEASTWARD THAN IT IS CURRENTLY. THE VARIOUS DYNAMICAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON THIS SCENARIO... ALTHOUGH THEY CONTINUE TO DISAGREE ON FORWARD SPEED LATER IN THE FORECAST. DUE TO THE FASTER THAN EXPECTED INITIAL MOTION... THE NEW TRACK IS FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BUT SLOWER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS... WITH WHICH I AM RELATIVELY COMFORTABLE GIVEN THAT THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TOO FAST THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS TO SEND FRANKLIN OFF TO THE RACES. IT DOES NOT SEEM THAT THE ENVIRONMENT... IN TERMS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR... WILL BECOME MUCH MORE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK BEFORE FRANKLIN REACHES COOLER WATERS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS THEREFORE KEPT LEVEL AT 35 KT... WHICH IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE GFDL AND SHIPS GUIDANCE... UNTIL FRANKLIN BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL AND EVENTUALLY BECOMES ABSORBED BY A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT THREE TO FOUR DAYS. FORECASTER KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 27/0900Z 33.1N 68.8W 35 KT 12HR VT 27/1800Z 34.1N 68.8W 35 KT 24HR VT 28/0600Z 35.7N 68.2W 35 KT 36HR VT 28/1800Z 37.6N 66.9W 35 KT 48HR VT 29/0600Z 39.7N 64.5W 35 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 30/0600Z 43.5N 56.5W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 31/0600Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM $$ ** WTPQ20 RJTD 270900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0507 BANYAN (0507) ANALYSIS PSTN 270900UTC 42.2N 147.7E FAIR MOVE NE 25KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 050KT 30KT 300NM EAST 150NM WEST FORECAST 24HF 280900UTC 47.7N 152.7E 100NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTJP31 RJTD 270900 *** WARNING 270900. WARNING VALID 280900. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0507 BANYAN (0507) 980 HPA AT 42.2N 147.7E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHEAST 25 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 272100UTC AT 45.5N 150.3E WITH 60 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION FOR 280900UTC AT 47.7N 152.7E WITH 100 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS. BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=