** WTPQ20 BABJ 260600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS BANYAN 0507 (0507) INITIAL TIME 260600 UTC 00HR 33.4N 138.8E 980HPA 25M/S 30KTS 400KM P12HR NNE 30KM/H P+24HR 41.0N 144.8E 990HPA 20M/S P+48HR 46.5N 150.0E 998HPA 15M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 260600 *** WARNING 260600. WARNING VALID 270600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0507 BANYAN (0507) 980 HPA AT 33.4N 138.9E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHEAST 14 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 261800UTC AT 37.1N 142.0E WITH 60 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION FOR 270600UTC AT 40.9N 145.5E WITH 100 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 280600UTC AT 46.8N 151.9E WITH 170 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 984 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS. BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 260600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0507 BANYAN (0507) ANALYSIS PSTN 260600UTC 33.4N 138.9E FAIR MOVE NE 14KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 050KT 30KT 350NM EAST 180NM WEST FORECAST 24HF 270600UTC 40.9N 145.5E 100NM 70% MOVE NNE 23KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 045KT 48HF 280600UTC 46.8N 151.9E 170NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTIN20 DEMS 260700 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE NEW DELHI 26-07-2005 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) WELLMARKED LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER NORTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL OFF ORISSA AND WEST BENGAL COAST NOW MOVED INTO LAND AREA. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTIVE CLOUDS OVER PARTS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL. CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE ALSO SEEN OVER PARTS OF ANDAMAN SEA AND EAST CENTRAL ARABIAN SEA OFF KONKAN AND GOA AND KARNATAKA COAST (.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 30 DEG. NORTH OVER INDIAN REGION (.) ** WTPQ30 RJTD 260600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO.11 FOR STS 0507 BANYAN (0507) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 260600 UTC IS FAIR. STS WILL ACCELERATE . STS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS THEN MOVE TO NORTH-NO RTHEAST. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST STS WILL BE GRADED DOWN TO TS WITHIN 24 HOURS. STS WILL WEAKEN BECAUSE CYCLONE WILL MOVE INTO LOW SST AREA STS WILL WEAKEN BECAUSE LANDFALL IS EXPECTED WITHIN 18 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 2.0 AFTER 24 HOURS. STS WILL BE TRANSFORMED TO EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 48 HOURS.= ** WTCA41 TJSJ 260736 *** TCPSP1 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL FRANKLIN ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 19A NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 2 AM EDT MARTES 26 DE JULIO DE 2005 ...FRANKLIN MOVIENDOSE ERRATICAMENTE HACIA EL NORESTE... UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA EN EFECTO PARA BERMUDA. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA EN SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE TIERRA...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DE METEOROLOGIA. A LAS 2 AM EDT...0600Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL FRANKLIN ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 31.0 NORTE...LONGITUD 68.0 OESTE O COMO A 215 MILLAS...350 KM...AL OESTE SUROESTE DE BERMUDA. FRANKLIN SE HA ESTADO MOVIENDO ERRATICAMENTE HACIA EL NORESTE CERCA DE 7 MPH...11 KM/HR. SE ESPERA UN MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL NORTE NORESTE A UNA VELOCIDAD DE TRASLACION MAS LENTA DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS...Y PUDIERA OCURRIR UN MOVIMIENTO ERRATICO ADICIONAL. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA UN PEQUENO CAMBIO EN FUERZA DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 175 MILLAS...280 KM AL SURESTE EL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ES DE 1000 MB...29.53 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 2 AM...31.0 NORTE... 68.0 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO...AL NORESTE CERCA DE 7 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 40 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1000 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 5 AM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR KNABB $$ ** WTPN32 PGTW 260900 *** PASS TO OFFICE CODES: PSBR BCST//SID 80// DIRNSA FT GEORGE G MEADE MD//P313/Q332/WWEA// NAVOCEANO STENNIS SPACE CENTER MS//N16// MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 07W (BANYAN) WARNING NR 020 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 260600Z --- NEAR 33.4N 138.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 045 DEGREES AT 16 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND RADAR PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL REPEAT POSIT: 33.4N 138.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 261800Z --- 36.2N 141.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 18 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 270600Z --- 39.3N 143.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 19 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 271800Z --- 42.4N 146.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 260900Z POSITION NEAR 34.1N 139.4E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 07W (BANYAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 150 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260600Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 261500Z, 262100Z, 270300Z AND 270900Z.// ** WTNT21 KNHC 260847 *** TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062005 0900Z TUE JUL 26 2005 A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.3N 68.0W AT 26/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT.......120NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..175NE 225SE 50SW 50NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.3N 68.0W AT 26/0900Z AT 26/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.1N 68.1W FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 31.8N 67.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 32.7N 67.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 34.1N 67.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 36.2N 67.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 40.0N 63.0W...BECOMING ABSORBED BY FRONT MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/0600Z...ABSORBED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.3N 68.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/1500Z FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT31 KNHC 260848 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM AST TUE JUL 26 2005 ...FRANKLIN MOVING VERY SLOWLY NEAR BERMUDA... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA... PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 68.0 WEST OR ABOUT 200 MILES... 320 KM... WEST-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA. FRANKLIN IS MOVING ERRATICALLY TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 5 MPH... 7 KM/HR. A SLOW AND SOMETIMES ERRATIC MOTION IN A GENERAL NORTHWARD DIRECTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES... 220 KM... MAINLY TO THE EAST FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN BERMUDA DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. REPEATING THE 5 AM AST POSITION...31.3 N... 68.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 AM AST. FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT71 KNHC 260848 *** SPFAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN PROBABILITIES NUMBER 20 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM AST TUE JUL 26 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF FRANKLIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.0 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2AM AST FRI JUL 29 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 32.7N 67.8W 42 X X X 42 BOSTON MA X X X 5 5 34.1N 67.7W 13 6 2 1 22 PORTLAND ME X X X 4 4 36.2N 67.0W X 6 8 3 17 BAR HARBOR ME X X X 5 5 BERMUDA 5 5 3 2 15 EASTPORT ME X X X 5 5 OCEAN CITY MD X X 1 1 2 ST JOHN NB X X X 5 5 ATLANTIC CITY NJ X X 1 1 2 MONCTON NB X X X 4 4 NEW YORK CITY NY X X 1 2 3 YARMOUTH NS X X X 7 7 MONTAUK POINT NY X X 1 4 5 HALIFAX NS X X X 5 5 PROVIDENCE RI X X 1 4 5 SABLE ISLAND NS X X X 4 4 NANTUCKET MA X X 1 7 8 SYDNEY NS X X X 2 2 HYANNIS MA X X 1 6 7 EDDY POINT NS X X X 3 3 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM WED FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2AM WED TO 2PM WED C FROM 2PM WED TO 2AM THU D FROM 2AM THU TO 2AM FRI E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM FRI X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTCA41 TJSJ 260856 *** TCPSP1 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL FRANKLIN ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 20 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 5 AM AST MARTES 26 DE JULIO DE 2005 ...FRANKLIN MOVIENDOSE MUY LENTAMENTE CERCA DE BERMUDA... UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA EN EFECTO PARA BERMUDA. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA EN SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE TIERRA...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DE METEOROLOGIA. A LAS 5 AM EDT...0900Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL FRANKLIN ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 31.3 NORTE...LONGITUD 68.0 OESTE O COMO A 220 MILLAS...320 KM...AL OESTE SUROESTE DE BERMUDA. FRANKLIN SE HA ESTADO MOVIENDO ERRATICAMENTE HACIA EL NORTE NORESTE CERCA DE 5 MPH...7 KM/HR. SE ESPERA UN MOVIMIENTO LENTO Y A VECES ERRATICO EN UN MOVIMIENTO GENERAL HACIA EL NORTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA UN PEQUENO CAMBIO EN FUERZA DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 140 MILLAS...220 KM AL ESTE DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ES DE 1000 MB...29.53 PULGADAS. CANTIDADES DE LLUVIA ENTRE 2 A 4 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES EN BERMUDA DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 A 36 HORAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 5 AM...31.3 NORTE... 68.0 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO...AL NORTE NORESTE CERCA DE 5 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 40 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1000 MB. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 8 AM AST SEGUIDA POR LA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 11 AM AST. PRONOSTICADOR KNABB $$ ** WTNT41 KNHC 260901 *** TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 20 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT TUE JUL 26 2005 THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER THAT HAD YESTERDAY BEEN EXPOSED HAS REMAINED INVOLVED WITH THE CONVECTION OVERNIGHT. DESPITE WHAT WOULD OTHERWISE REFLECT INCREASED ORGANIZATION... FRANKLIN HAS NOT TAKEN ADVANTAGE OF THE DIURNAL CONVECTIVE MAXIMUM PERIOD... AND CLOUD TOPS HAVE BEEN STEADILY WARMING. INCREASING NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND A FAIRLY DRY ENVIRONMENT ARE TAKING THEIR TOLL ON THE TROPICAL STORM. THE ADVISORY INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 35 KT... AS SUPPORTED BY 06Z DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30-35 KT... BUT CONVECTION WILL NEED TO REDEVELOP SOON IF THAT INTENSITY IS TO BE MAINTAINED FOR MUCH LONGER. FURTHER INTENSIFICATION SEEMS UNLIKELY... AND FRANKLIN MAY NOT REMAIN A TROPICAL STORM FOR AS LONG AS SHOWN IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. A MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS PASSED BY WELL TO THE NORTH OF FRANKLIN...LEAVING THE TROPICAL STORM WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT OF WEAK STEERING. THE ANTICIPATED DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND THE TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST HAVE BOTH OCCURRED... PERHAPS EVEN A LITTLE SOONER THAN EXPECTED... AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 020/4. THIS SLOW GENERAL NORTHWARD MOTION MIGHT NOT CHANGE MUCH UNTIL THE NEXT STRONGER TROUGH AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT APPROACH THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. DYNAMICAL MODELS AGREE THAT THIS FEATURE WILL ACCELERATE FRANKLIN TO THE NORTHEAST BEGINNING IN ABOUT 36 HOURS... ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE MODELS HAVE SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE WEST COMPARED TO EARLIER. AS A RESULT OF THIS AND THE INITIAL MOTION... THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BUT REMAINS ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL SUITE. ON THIS TRACK FRANKLIN IS EXPECTED TO BECOME ABSORBED BY THE APPROACHING FRONTAL ZONE IN 3 TO 4 DAYS. FORECASTER KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 26/0900Z 31.3N 68.0W 35 KT 12HR VT 26/1800Z 31.8N 67.9W 35 KT 24HR VT 27/0600Z 32.7N 67.8W 35 KT 36HR VT 27/1800Z 34.1N 67.7W 35 KT 48HR VT 28/0600Z 36.2N 67.0W 30 KT 72HR VT 29/0600Z 40.0N 63.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 96HR VT 30/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ ** WTNT41 KNHC 260905 *** TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 20... CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT TUE JUL 26 2005 ...CORRECTED TO DENOTE ABSORBED BY FRONTAL ZONE IN TABLE... THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER THAT HAD YESTERDAY BEEN EXPOSED HAS REMAINED INVOLVED WITH THE CONVECTION OVERNIGHT. DESPITE WHAT WOULD OTHERWISE REFLECT INCREASED ORGANIZATION... FRANKLIN HAS NOT TAKEN ADVANTAGE OF THE DIURNAL CONVECTIVE MAXIMUM PERIOD... AND CLOUD TOPS HAVE BEEN STEADILY WARMING. INCREASING NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND A FAIRLY DRY ENVIRONMENT ARE TAKING THEIR TOLL ON THE TROPICAL STORM. THE ADVISORY INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 35 KT... AS SUPPORTED BY 06Z DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30-35 KT... BUT CONVECTION WILL NEED TO REDEVELOP SOON IF THAT INTENSITY IS TO BE MAINTAINED FOR MUCH LONGER. FURTHER INTENSIFICATION SEEMS UNLIKELY... AND FRANKLIN MAY NOT REMAIN A TROPICAL STORM FOR AS LONG AS SHOWN IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. A MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS PASSED BY WELL TO THE NORTH OF FRANKLIN...LEAVING THE TROPICAL STORM WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT OF WEAK STEERING. THE ANTICIPATED DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND THE TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST HAVE BOTH OCCURRED... PERHAPS EVEN A LITTLE SOONER THAN EXPECTED... AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 020/4. THIS SLOW GENERAL NORTHWARD MOTION MIGHT NOT CHANGE MUCH UNTIL THE NEXT STRONGER TROUGH AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT APPROACH THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. DYNAMICAL MODELS AGREE THAT THIS FEATURE WILL ACCELERATE FRANKLIN TO THE NORTHEAST BEGINNING IN ABOUT 36 HOURS... ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE MODELS HAVE SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE WEST COMPARED TO EARLIER. AS A RESULT OF THIS AND THE INITIAL MOTION... THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BUT REMAINS ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL SUITE. ON THIS TRACK FRANKLIN IS EXPECTED TO BECOME ABSORBED BY THE APPROACHING FRONTAL ZONE IN 3 TO 4 DAYS. FORECASTER KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 26/0900Z 31.3N 68.0W 35 KT 12HR VT 26/1800Z 31.8N 67.9W 35 KT 24HR VT 27/0600Z 32.7N 67.8W 35 KT 36HR VT 27/1800Z 34.1N 67.7W 35 KT 48HR VT 28/0600Z 36.2N 67.0W 30 KT 72HR VT 29/0600Z 40.0N 63.0W 25 KT...BECOMING ASBORBED 96HR VT 30/0600Z...ABSORBED BY FRONT $$ ** WTCA41 TJSJ 260935 *** TCPSP1 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL FRANKLIN ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 20 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 5 AM AST MARTES 26 DE JULIO DE 2005 ...FRANKLIN MOVIENDOSE MUY LENTAMENTE CERCA DE BERMUDA... UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA EN EFECTO PARA BERMUDA. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA EN SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE TIERRA...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DE METEOROLOGIA. A LAS 5 AM AST...0900Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL FRANKLIN ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 31.3 NORTE...LONGITUD 68.0 OESTE O COMO A 220 MILLAS...320 KM...AL OESTE SUROESTE DE BERMUDA. FRANKLIN SE HA ESTADO MOVIENDO ERRATICAMENTE HACIA EL NORTE NORESTE CERCA DE 5 MPH...7 KM/HR. SE ESPERA UN MOVIMIENTO LENTO Y A VECES ERRATICO EN UN MOVIMIENTO GENERAL HACIA EL NORTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA UN PEQUENO CAMBIO EN FUERZA DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 140 MILLAS...220 KM AL ESTE DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ES DE 1000 MB...29.53 PULGADAS. CANTIDADES DE LLUVIA ENTRE 2 A 4 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES EN BERMUDA DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 A 36 HORAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 5 AM...31.3 NORTE... 68.0 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO...AL NORTE NORESTE CERCA DE 5 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 40 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1000 MB. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 8 AM AST SEGUIDA POR LA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 11 AM AST. PRONOSTICADOR KNABB $$ ** WTJP31 RJTD 260900 *** WARNING 260900. WARNING VALID 270900. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0507 BANYAN (0507) 980 HPA AT 34.2N 139.6E SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHEAST 16 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 262100UTC AT 38.0N 143.1E WITH 60 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION FOR 270900UTC AT 42.0N 146.5E WITH 100 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 260900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0507 BANYAN (0507) ANALYSIS PSTN 260900UTC 34.2N 139.6E FAIR MOVE NE 16KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 050KT 30KT 350NM EAST 180NM WEST FORECAST 24HF 270900UTC 42.0N 146.5E 100NM 70% MOVE NNE 23KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 045KT 45HF 280600UTC 46.8N 151.9E 170NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTNT31 KNHC 261144 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 20A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM AST TUE JUL 26 2005 ...FRANKLIN MEANDERING SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA... PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 8 AM AST...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 68.1 WEST OR ABOUT 205 MILES... 335 KM... WEST-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA. FRANKLIN IS MOVING ERRATICALLY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 5 MPH... 7 KM/HR. A SLOW AND SOMETIMES ERRATIC MOTION IN A GENERAL NORTHWARD OR NORTHEASTWARD DIRECTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES... 220 KM... MAINLY EAST THROUGH SOUTH OF THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN BERMUDA DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. REPEATING THE 8 AM AST POSITION...31.6 N... 68.1 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM AST. FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTCA41 TJSJ 261149 *** TCPSP1 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL FRANKLIN ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 20A NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 8 AM AST MARTES 26 DE JULIO DE 2005 ...FRANKLIN SIN RUMBO AL SUROESTE DE BERMUDA... UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA EN EFECTO PARA BERMUDA. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA EN SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE TIERRA...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DE METEOROLOGIA. A LAS 8 AM AST...1200Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL FRANKLIN ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 31.6 NORTE...LONGITUD 68.1 OESTE O COMO A 205 MILLAS...335 KM...AL OESTE SUROESTE DE BERMUDA. FRANKLIN SE HA ESTADO MOVIENDO ERRATICAMENTE HACIA EL NORESTE CERCA DE 5 MPH...7 KM/HR. SE ESPERA UN MOVIMIENTO LENTO Y A VECES ERRATICO EN UN MOVIMIENTO GENERAL HACIA EL NORTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA UN PEQUENO CAMBIO EN FUERZA DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 140 MILLAS...220 KM AL ESTE DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ES DE 1000 MB...29.53 PULGADAS. CANTIDADES DE LLUVIA ENTRE 2 A 4 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES EN BERMUDA DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 A 36 HORAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 8 AM...31.6 NORTE... 68.1 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO...AL NORTE NORESTE CERCA DE 5 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 40 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1000 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 11 AM AST. PRONOSTICADOR STEWART $$