** WTSR20 WSSS 251800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 260000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS BANYAN 0507 (0507) INITIAL TIME 260000 UTC 00HR 32.4N 137.5E 985HPA 25M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 50KM P12HR NNE 35KM/H P+24HR 39.2N 142.4E 990HPA 20M/S P+48HR 45.0N 147.8E 998HPA 15M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 260000 *** WARNING 260000. WARNING VALID 270000. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0507 BANYAN (0507) 985 HPA AT 32.2N 137.6E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 13 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 261200UTC AT 35.3N 139.8E WITH 60 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION FOR 270000UTC AT 39.0N 142.8E WITH 100 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 280000UTC AT 44.5N 148.0E WITH 170 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION FOR 290000UTC AT 47.8N 152.2E WITH 270 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 988 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS. BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 260000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0507 BANYAN (0507) ANALYSIS PSTN 260000UTC 32.2N 137.6E FAIR MOVE NNE 13KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 30KT 350NM EAST 180NM WEST FORECAST 24HF 270000UTC 39.0N 142.8E 100NM 70% MOVE NNE 22KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 045KT 48HF 280000UTC 44.5N 148.0E 170NM 70% MOVE NNE 16KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 045KT 72HF 290000UTC 47.8N 152.2E 270NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTPQ30 RJTD 260000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO.10 FOR STS 0507 BANYAN (0507) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 260000 UTC IS FAIR. STS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS THEN ACCELERA TE. STS WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHEAST FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST STS WILL BE GRADED DOWN TO TS WITHIN 24 HOURS. STS WILL WEAKEN BECAUSE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE NEAR CYCLONE CENTER H AS BECOME WARMER STS WILL WEAKEN BECAUSE LANDFALL IS EXPECTED WITHIN 18 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 2.0 AFTER 24 HOURS. STS WILL BE TRANSFORMED TO EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 60 HOURS.= ** WTKO20 RKSL 260000 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 6 NAME STS 0507 BANYAN ANALYSIS POSITION 260000UTC 32.2N 137.6E MOVEMENT NNE 13KT PRES/VMAX 985HPA 45KT FORECAST 12HR POSITION 261200UTC 35.2N 139.3E WITHIN 45NM PRES/VMAX 985HPA 45KT 24HR POSITION 270000UTC 38.5N 142.0E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 990HPA 39KT 48HR POSITION 280000UTC 43.4N 146.4E WITHIN 135NM PRES 990HPA KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPN32 PGTW 260300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 07W (BANYAN) WARNING NR 019 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 260000Z --- NEAR 32.3N 137.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 025 DEGREES AT 13 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 32.3N 137.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 261200Z --- 35.1N 139.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 19 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 270000Z --- 38.1N 142.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 19 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 271200Z --- 41.0N 145.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 260300Z POSITION NEAR 33.0N 137.9E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 07W (BANYAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 240 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TS 07W HAS CONTINUED TO DIMINISH. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260000Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 260900Z, 261500Z, 262100Z AND 270300Z.// ** WTNT21 KNHC 260235 *** TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062005 0300Z TUE JUL 26 2005 AT 11 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF BERMUDA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR BERMUDA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.7N 68.2W AT 26/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 150SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..175NE 225SE 50SW 50NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.7N 68.2W AT 26/0300Z AT 26/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.6N 68.5W FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 31.3N 67.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 150SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 32.0N 67.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 33.0N 67.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 34.0N 67.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 36.5N 65.5W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z 40.5N 60.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 31/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.7N 68.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0900Z FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT41 KNHC 260235 *** TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2005 FRANKLIN HAS UNDERGONE ANOTHER STRUCTURAL CHANGE THIS EVENING. A NEW VORTICITY CENTER APPEARED FROM UNDER THE CONVECTION EAST OF THE MAIN CIRCULATION CENTER...AND IT AND THE MAIN CENTER ARE ROTATING AROUND EACH OTHER. THE CENTER TRACKED EARLIER IS CURRENTLY THE MOST INVOLVED WITH CONVECTION...SO THAT CENTER POSITION IS USED IN THIS ADVISORY. HOWEVER...THE APPEARANCE OF THE SECONDARY VORTICITY CENTER SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE OVERALL SYSTEM MAY REFORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...OR THAT A MEAN CIRCULATION CENTER MAY BECOME MORE APPROPRIATE FOR TRACKING. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 35 KT BASED ON SATELLITE ESTIMATES OF 35 KT FROM TAFB AND AFWA...AND 30 KT FROM SAB. THE INITIAL MOTION IS AN ERRATIC AND UNCERTAIN 090/7. ON THE LARGE SCALE...THE STEERING IS FAIRLY STRAIGHTFORWARD. A MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ARE PASSING NORTH OF FRANKLIN. OVER THE NEXT 48 HR...PRESSURES SHOULD RISE EAST OF THE STORM IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH AND FALL TO THE WEST IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT STRONGER TROUGH. THIS SUGGESTS FRANKLIN SHOULD TURN NORTHWARD DURING THAT TIME...FOLLOWED BY ACCELERATION NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE WESTERLIES. ALL MODEL GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE BAM MODELS...IS NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. HOWEVER... SUPERIMPOSED ON TOP OF THIS WILL BE CYCLOIDAL MOTION OF THE CENTER INSIDE THE LARGER CYCLONIC ENVELOPE...AS WELL AS POSSIBLE RE-FORMATION OF THE CENTER DUE TO MERGER WITH THE SECONDARY VORTICITY CENTER OR TO CONVECTIVE BURSTS. THUS...THE ERRATIC MOTION SEEN FOR THE LAST 24-30 HR WILL LIKELY CONTINUE...STARTING WITH THE CENTER TAKING A NORTHWARD TURN DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE SECONDARY CENTER MOVES TO ITS WEST. A CONVECTIVE BURST IS NEAR THE PRIMARY CENTER RIGHT NOW...AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS A SMALL UPPER-LEVEL LOW HAS FORMED NEAR FRANKLIN. THIS MAY PROVIDE TEMPORARY PROTECTION FROM THE SHEAR. HOWEVER...LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THIS LOW TO GET PUSHED AWAY FROM THE STORM BY STRONG NORTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW...WHICH IS CURRENTLY SEEN APPROACHING FRANKLIN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE GFS FORECASTS A VERY HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT DURING THE NEXT 48 HR...WITH STRONG SHEAR AND A NEW UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS FORMING NEAR THE STORM. THE UKMET AND NOGAPS SHOW A LESS HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT...BUT EVEN THEY TAKE 48 HR OR MORE TO SHOW CONDITIONS THAT MIGHT ALLOW STRENGTHENING. THUS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO CALL FOR GRADUAL DECAY. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT CONVECTIVE BURSTS COULD CAUSE SOME TEMPORARY STRENGTHENING IN THE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. FRANKLIN HAS SHIFTED FARTHER EAST THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...SO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS BEING ISSUED FOR BERMUDA AT THIS TIME. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 26/0300Z 30.7N 68.2W 35 KT 12HR VT 26/1200Z 31.3N 67.8W 35 KT 24HR VT 27/0000Z 32.0N 67.5W 35 KT 36HR VT 27/1200Z 33.0N 67.3W 35 KT 48HR VT 28/0000Z 34.0N 67.2W 30 KT 72HR VT 29/0000Z 36.5N 65.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 96HR VT 30/0000Z 40.5N 60.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 31/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ ** WTNT71 KNHC 260235 *** SPFAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM AST MON JUL 25 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF FRANKLIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.2 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8PM AST THU JUL 28 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 32.0N 67.5W 46 X X X 46 PROVIDENCE RI X X X 2 2 33.0N 67.3W 24 2 X 1 27 NANTUCKET MA X X X 4 4 34.0N 67.2W 10 7 2 2 21 HYANNIS MA X X X 3 3 BERMUDA 3 7 3 2 15 BOSTON MA X X X 2 2 CAPE HATTERAS NC X X X 2 2 YARMOUTH NS X X X 2 2 OCEAN CITY MD X X X 2 2 HALIFAX NS X X X 2 2 MONTAUK POINT NY X X X 2 2 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM TUE FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8PM TUE TO 8AM WED C FROM 8AM WED TO 8PM WED D FROM 8PM WED TO 8PM THU E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM THU X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT31 KNHC 260235 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM AST MON JUL 25 2005 ...FRANKLIN MOVING ERRATICALLY EASTWARD...TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR BERMUDA... AT 11 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF BERMUDA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR BERMUDA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.2 WEST OR ABOUT 230 MILES... 370 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA. FRANKLIN IS MOVING ERRATICALLY TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND ADDITIONAL ERRATIC MOTION MAY OCCUR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES ...280 KM MAINLY TO THE SOUTHEAST THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES. REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...30.7 N... 68.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...EAST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM AST. FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT21 KNHC 260235 *** TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062005 0300Z TUE JUL 26 2005 AT 11 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF BERMUDA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR BERMUDA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.7N 68.2W AT 26/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 150SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..175NE 225SE 50SW 50NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.7N 68.2W AT 26/0300Z AT 26/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.6N 68.5W FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 31.3N 67.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 150SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 32.0N 67.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 33.0N 67.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 34.0N 67.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 36.5N 65.5W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z 40.5N 60.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 31/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.7N 68.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0900Z FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT41 KNHC 260235 *** TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2005 FRANKLIN HAS UNDERGONE ANOTHER STRUCTURAL CHANGE THIS EVENING. A NEW VORTICITY CENTER APPEARED FROM UNDER THE CONVECTION EAST OF THE MAIN CIRCULATION CENTER...AND IT AND THE MAIN CENTER ARE ROTATING AROUND EACH OTHER. THE CENTER TRACKED EARLIER IS CURRENTLY THE MOST INVOLVED WITH CONVECTION...SO THAT CENTER POSITION IS USED IN THIS ADVISORY. HOWEVER...THE APPEARANCE OF THE SECONDARY VORTICITY CENTER SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE OVERALL SYSTEM MAY REFORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...OR THAT A MEAN CIRCULATION CENTER MAY BECOME MORE APPROPRIATE FOR TRACKING. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 35 KT BASED ON SATELLITE ESTIMATES OF 35 KT FROM TAFB AND AFWA...AND 30 KT FROM SAB. THE INITIAL MOTION IS AN ERRATIC AND UNCERTAIN 090/7. ON THE LARGE SCALE...THE STEERING IS FAIRLY STRAIGHTFORWARD. A MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ARE PASSING NORTH OF FRANKLIN. OVER THE NEXT 48 HR...PRESSURES SHOULD RISE EAST OF THE STORM IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH AND FALL TO THE WEST IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT STRONGER TROUGH. THIS SUGGESTS FRANKLIN SHOULD TURN NORTHWARD DURING THAT TIME...FOLLOWED BY ACCELERATION NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE WESTERLIES. ALL MODEL GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE BAM MODELS...IS NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. HOWEVER... SUPERIMPOSED ON TOP OF THIS WILL BE CYCLOIDAL MOTION OF THE CENTER INSIDE THE LARGER CYCLONIC ENVELOPE...AS WELL AS POSSIBLE RE-FORMATION OF THE CENTER DUE TO MERGER WITH THE SECONDARY VORTICITY CENTER OR TO CONVECTIVE BURSTS. THUS...THE ERRATIC MOTION SEEN FOR THE LAST 24-30 HR WILL LIKELY CONTINUE...STARTING WITH THE CENTER TAKING A NORTHWARD TURN DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE SECONDARY CENTER MOVES TO ITS WEST. A CONVECTIVE BURST IS NEAR THE PRIMARY CENTER RIGHT NOW...AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS A SMALL UPPER-LEVEL LOW HAS FORMED NEAR FRANKLIN. THIS MAY PROVIDE TEMPORARY PROTECTION FROM THE SHEAR. HOWEVER...LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THIS LOW TO GET PUSHED AWAY FROM THE STORM BY STRONG NORTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW...WHICH IS CURRENTLY SEEN APPROACHING FRANKLIN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE GFS FORECASTS A VERY HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT DURING THE NEXT 48 HR...WITH STRONG SHEAR AND A NEW UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS FORMING NEAR THE STORM. THE UKMET AND NOGAPS SHOW A LESS HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT...BUT EVEN THEY TAKE 48 HR OR MORE TO SHOW CONDITIONS THAT MIGHT ALLOW STRENGTHENING. THUS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO CALL FOR GRADUAL DECAY. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT CONVECTIVE BURSTS COULD CAUSE SOME TEMPORARY STRENGTHENING IN THE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. FRANKLIN HAS SHIFTED FARTHER EAST THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...SO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS BEING ISSUED FOR BERMUDA AT THIS TIME. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 26/0300Z 30.7N 68.2W 35 KT 12HR VT 26/1200Z 31.3N 67.8W 35 KT 24HR VT 27/0000Z 32.0N 67.5W 35 KT 36HR VT 27/1200Z 33.0N 67.3W 35 KT 48HR VT 28/0000Z 34.0N 67.2W 30 KT 72HR VT 29/0000Z 36.5N 65.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 96HR VT 30/0000Z 40.5N 60.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 31/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ ** WTCA41 TJSJ 260245 *** TCPSP1 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL FRANKLIN ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 18 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT LUNES 25 DE JULIO DE 2005 ...FRANKLIN SE ESTA MOVIENDO ERRATICAMENTE HACIA EL ESTE...VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA BERMUDA... A LAS 11 PM AST...0300 UTC...EL GOBIERNO DE BERMUDA HA EMITIDO UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA BERMUDA. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA EN SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE TIERRA...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DE METEOROLOGIA. A LAS 11 PM EDT...0300Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL FRANKLIN ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 30.7 NORTE...LONGITUD 68.2 OESTE O COMO A 230 MILLAS...370 KM...AL OESTE SUROESTE DE BERMUDA. FRANKLIN SE HA ESTADO MOVIENDO ERRATICAMENTE HACIA EL ESTE CERCA DE 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. SE ESPERA UN MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL NOR NORESTE A UNA VELOCIDAD MENOR DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS...Y PUDIERA OCURRIR UN MOVIMIENTO ERRATICO ADICIONAL. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA UN PEQUENO CAMBIO EN FUERZA DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 175 MILLAS...280 KM AL SURESTE EL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ES DE 1000 MB...29.53 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 11 PM...30.7 NORTE... 68.2 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO...AL ESTE CERCA DE 8 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 40 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1000 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 5 AM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR BEVEN $$ ** WTNT31 KNHC 260311 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN ADVISORY NUMBER 19...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM AST MON JUL 25 2005 ...CORRECTED TO ADD INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY TIME AND BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE... ...FRANKLIN MOVING ERRATICALLY EASTWARD...TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR BERMUDA... AT 11 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR BERMUDA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.2 WEST OR ABOUT 230 MILES... 370 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA. FRANKLIN IS MOVING ERRATICALLY TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND ADDITIONAL ERRATIC MOTION MAY OCCUR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES ...280 KM MAINLY TO THE SOUTHEAST THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES. REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...30.7 N... 68.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...EAST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 AM AST TUESDAY...WITH THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM AST. FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTJP31 RJTD 260300 *** WARNING 260300. WARNING VALID 270300. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0507 BANYAN (0507) 980 HPA AT 32.9N 137.9E SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 14 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 261500UTC AT 36.1N 140.2E WITH 60 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION FOR 270300UTC AT 40.1N 143.1E WITH 100 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 260300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0507 BANYAN (0507) ANALYSIS PSTN 260300UTC 32.9N 137.9E FAIR MOVE NNE 14KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 050KT 30KT 350NM EAST 180NM WEST FORECAST 24HF 270300UTC 40.1N 143.1E 100NM 70% MOVE NNE 23KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 045KT 45HF 280000UTC 44.5N 148.0E 170NM 70% MOVE NNE 16KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 045KT 69HF 290000UTC 47.8N 152.2E 270NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTNT80 EGRR 260540 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 26.07.2005 NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+36 : 22.7N 107.6W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 27.07.2005 22.7N 107.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 28.07.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN ANALYSED POSITION : 30.5N 68.4W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 26.07.2005 30.5N 68.4W MODERATE 12UTC 26.07.2005 31.2N 68.0W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 27.07.2005 32.0N 68.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 27.07.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+72 : 9.2N 27.1W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 29.07.2005 9.2N 27.1W WEAK 12UTC 29.07.2005 10.5N 29.2W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 30.07.2005 11.3N 31.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 30.07.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 260540 ** WTNT31 KNHC 260557 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 19A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM AST TUE JUL 26 2005 ...FRANKLIN MOVING ERRATICALLY NORTHEASTWARD... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA... PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 2 AM AST... 0600Z... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.0 NORTH... LONGITUDE 68.0 WEST OR ABOUT 215 MILES... 350 KM... WEST-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA. FRANKLIN IS MOVING ERRATICALLY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH... 11 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... AND ADDITIONAL ERRATIC MOTION MAY OCCUR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES... 280 KM... MAINLY TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB... 29.53 INCHES. REPEATING THE 2 AM AST POSITION...31.0 N... 68.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM AST. FORECASTER KNABB $$