** WTPQ20 BABJ 251800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS BANYAN 0507 (0507) INITIAL TIME 251800 UTC 00HR 31.0N 136.9E 985HPA 25M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 50KM P12HR NNE 35KM/H P+24HR 37.6N 140.8E 988HPA 23M/S P+48HR 45.0N 147.6E 995HPA 18M/S= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 251800 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0507 BANYAN (0507) ANALYSIS PSTN 251800UTC 31.0N 136.9E FAIR MOVE N 09KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 055KT 50KT 80NM SOUTHEAST 60NM NORTHWEST 30KT 325NM SOUTHEAST 220NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 261800UTC 37.7N 140.7E 100NM 70% MOVE NNE 20KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 48HF 271800UTC 43.3N 146.0E 170NM 70% MOVE NNE 16KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 72HF 281800UTC 47.5N 149.9E 270NM 70% MOVE NNE 12KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT = ** WTJP21 RJTD 251800 *** WARNING 251800. WARNING VALID 261800. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0507 BANYAN (0507) 985 HPA AT 31.0N 136.9E SOUTH OF SHIONOMISAKI MOVING NORTH 09 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 80 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 60 MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 325 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 220 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 260600UTC AT 34.1N 138.1E WITH 60 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 261800UTC AT 37.7N 140.7E WITH 100 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 271800UTC AT 43.3N 146.0E WITH 170 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION FOR 281800UTC AT 47.5N 149.9E WITH 270 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTNT21 KNHC 252032 *** TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062005 2100Z MON JUL 25 2005 INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FRANKLIN. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.7N 69.5W AT 25/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT IS STATIONARY ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 150SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 225SE 50SW 50NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.7N 69.5W AT 25/2100Z AT 25/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.9N 69.7W FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 31.2N 69.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 150SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 31.6N 69.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 150SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 32.3N 68.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 33.5N 68.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 36.0N 67.0W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 40.0N 63.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.7N 69.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0300Z FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTNT31 KNHC 252032 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2005 ...FRANKLIN STALLED... INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FRANKLIN. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 69.5 WEST OR ABOUT 300 MILES... 480 KM... WEST-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA. FRANKLIN HAS BEEN MEANDERING OR NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...BUT A SLOW EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES ...280 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES. REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...30.7 N... 69.5 W. MOVEMENT ...STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM EDT. FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTNT41 KNHC 252034 *** TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2005 AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS INVESTIGATED FRANKLIN EARLIER TODAY AND FOUND THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS A LITTLE LOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT AND...BASED ON DROPSONDE-DERIVED WIND PROFILES...MAXIMUM SURFACE WINDS WERE NEAR 40 KT. SINCE THEN...THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS DETERIORATED MARKEDLY WITH AN INCREASING SEPARATION OF THE LOW-CLOUD CENTER FROM AN AREA OF DIMINISHING DEEP CONVECTION. THEREFORE...ALTHOUGH THE STORM WAS PROBABLY A LITTLE STRONGER AROUND 12Z TODAY...THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED TO BE AROUND 35 KT. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT CONVECTION MAY REDEVELOP NEARER TO THE CENTER TONIGHT OR EARLY TOMORROW. HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT RE-INTENSIFICATION IS NOT VERY LIKELY AND FRANKLIN SHOULD BE DISSIPATING DUE TO COOLER WATERS LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS QUITE SIMILAR TO THE LATEST FSU SUPERENSEMBLE INTENSITY PREDICTION. FRANKLIN CONTINUES TO MOVE ERRATICALLY...TAKING ONE STEP BACKWARDS FOR EVERY FEW STEPS FORWARD. LATELY THE CENTER HAS BEEN MEANDERING IN MORE OR LESS THE SAME LOCATION...SO STATIONARY IS THE BEST BET FOR INITIAL MOTION. STEERING CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST SHOWS A NORTHEASTWARD DRIFT EARLY IN THE PERIOD. GLOBAL MODELS BUILD A RIDGE IN THE VICINITY OF 60W IN 2-3 DAYS...SO A MORE DETERMINED MOTION...TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST...IS LIKELY TO COMMENCE BY THAT TIME. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT IS NEAR THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE DYNAMICAL TRACK MODEL SUITE. ALTHOUGH THIS LESSENS THE POTENTIAL THREAT FOR BERMUDA...INTERESTS THERE SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FRANKLIN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 25/2100Z 30.7N 69.5W 35 KT 12HR VT 26/0600Z 31.2N 69.4W 35 KT 24HR VT 26/1800Z 31.6N 69.0W 35 KT 36HR VT 27/0600Z 32.3N 68.5W 35 KT 48HR VT 27/1800Z 33.5N 68.0W 30 KT 72HR VT 28/1800Z 36.0N 67.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 96HR VT 29/1800Z 40.0N 63.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ ** WTNT71 KNHC 252034 *** SPFAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF FRANKLIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.5 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2PM EDT THU JUL 28 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 31.6N 69.0W 99 X X X 99 PROVIDENCE RI X X X 2 2 32.3N 68.5W 32 1 X 1 34 NANTUCKET MA X X X 4 4 33.5N 68.0W 7 9 3 2 21 HYANNIS MA X X X 3 3 BERMUDA X 3 4 4 11 BOSTON MA X X X 2 2 CAPE HATTERAS NC X X X 2 2 YARMOUTH NS X X X 2 2 MONTAUK POINT NY X X X 2 2 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM TUE FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2PM TUE TO 2AM WED C FROM 2AM WED TO 2PM WED D FROM 2PM WED TO 2PM THU E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM THU X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTCA41 TJSJ 252040 *** TCPSP1 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL FRANKLIN ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 18 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT LUNES 25 DE JULIO DE 2005 ...FRANKLIN ESTACIONADA... INTERESES EN BERMUDA DEBEN DE VIGILAR EL PROGRESO DE FRANKLIN. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA EN SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE TIERRA...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DE METEOROLOGIA. A LAS 5 PM EDT...2100Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL FRANKLIN ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 30.7 NORTE...LONGITUD 69.5 OESTE O COMO A 300 MILLAS...480 KM...AL OESTE SUROESTE DE BERMUDA. FRANKLIN SE HA ESTADO MOVIENDO ERRATICAMENTE O HA ESTADO CASI ESTACIONARIA DURANTE LAS PASADAS HORAS...PERO SE ESPERA UN MOVIMIENTO LENTO HACIA EL ESTE NORESTE ESTA NOCHE Y EL MARTES. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA UN PEQUENO CAMBIO EN FUERZA DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 175 MILLAS...280 KM DESDE EL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ES DE 1000 MB...29.53 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 5 PM...30.7 NORTE... 69.5 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO CASI ESTACIONARIO. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 40 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1000 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 11 PM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR PASCH $$ ** WTPN32 PGTW 252100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 07W (BANYAN) WARNING NR 018 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 251800Z --- NEAR 31.1N 136.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 005 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 31.1N 136.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z --- 33.7N 138.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 18 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 261800Z --- 36.7N 140.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 21 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 270600Z --- 40.1N 143.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 21 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 271800Z --- 43.3N 147.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 252100Z POSITION NEAR 31.8N 137.1E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 07W (BANYAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 310 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TS 07W HAS SLOWED SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS AND DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM HAS DIMINISHED. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 260300Z, 260900Z, 261500Z AND 262100Z.// ** WTPQ20 RJTD 252100 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0507 BANYAN (0507) ANALYSIS PSTN 252100UTC 31.6N 137.0E FAIR MOVE N 10KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 055KT 50KT 80NM EAST 60NM WEST 30KT 325NM EAST 200NM WEST FORECAST 24HF 262100UTC 38.4N 141.3E 100NM 70% MOVE NNE 22KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 45HF 271800UTC 43.3N 146.0E 170NM 70% MOVE NNE 16KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 69HF 281800UTC 47.5N 149.9E 270NM 70% MOVE NNE 12KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT = ** WTJP31 RJTD 252100 *** WARNING 252100. WARNING VALID 262100. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0507 BANYAN (0507) 985 HPA AT 31.6N 137.0E SOUTHEAST OF SHIONOMISAKI MOVING NORTH 10 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 80 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 60 MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 325 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 200 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 260900UTC AT 34.7N 138.4E WITH 60 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 262100UTC AT 38.4N 141.3E WITH 100 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=