** WTPQ20 BABJ 250600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS BANYAN 0507 (0507) INITIAL TIME 250600 UTC 00HR 28.4N 136.7E 980HPA 30M/S 30KTS 500KM 50KTS 150KM P12HR NNW 25KM/H P+24HR 33.8N 137.7E 975HPA 30M/S P+48HR 39.8N 141.9E 985HPA 23M/S P+72HR 45.0N 147.9E 995HPA 18M/S= ** WTIN20 DEMS 250636 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE NEW DELHI 25-07-2005 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) WELLMARKED LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER NORTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL OFF ORISSA AND WEST BENGAL COAST PERSISTS. THE SYSTEM LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER IN TO A DEPRESSION. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS INTENSE CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE AREA.OVER NORTH WEST AND WEST CENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL. CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE ALSO SEEN OVER PARTS OF ANDAMAN SEA AND EAST CENTRAL ARABIAN SEA OFF KONKAN AND GOA AND KARNATAKA COAST (.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 31.0 DEG. NORTH OVER INDIAN REGION (.) ** WTJP21 RJTD 250600 *** WARNING 250600. WARNING VALID 260600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0507 BANYAN (0507) 980 HPA AT 28.3N 137.0E WEST OF CHICHIJIMA MOVING NORTH 15 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 60 MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 450 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 300 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 260600UTC AT 33.4N 138.0E WITH 90 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 270600UTC AT 40.5N 142.2E WITH 170 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 280600UTC AT 44.6N 146.3E WITH 290 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 250600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0507 BANYAN (0507) ANALYSIS PSTN 250600UTC 28.3N 137.0E FAIR MOVE N 15KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 50KT 100NM EAST 60NM WEST 30KT 450NM EAST 300NM WEST FORECAST 24HF 260600UTC 33.4N 138.0E 90NM 70% MOVE N 12KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 48HF 270600UTC 40.5N 142.2E 170NM 70% MOVE NNE 19KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 72HF 280600UTC 44.6N 146.3E 290NM 70% MOVE NNE 12KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT = ** WTPQ30 RJTD 250600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 9 FOR STS 0507 BANYAN (0507) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 250600 UTC IS FAIR. STS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN ACCELERA TE. STS WILL MOVE NORTH FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN MOVE TO NORTH-NORTHE AST. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST STS WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 2.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTNT32 KNHC 250833 *** TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION GERT ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 4 AM CDT MON JUL 25 2005 ...GERT WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION ALTHOUGH RAIN THREAT CONTINUES... AT 4 AM CDT...0900Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED ALL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 4 AM CDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION GERT WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE 99.1 WEST OR ABOUT 80 MILES... 125 KM... WEST OF TAMPICO MEXICO. GERT IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH ...19 KM/HR... AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL THE CIRCULATION DISSIPATES OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL MEXICO LATER TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED AND ARE NOW NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 8 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN...ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. REPEATING THE 4 AM CDT POSITION...22.4 N... 99.1 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 10 AM CDT. FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT22 KNHC 250834 *** TCMAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION GERT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072005 0900Z MON JUL 25 2005 AT 4 AM CDT...0900Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED ALL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.4N 99.1W AT 25/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.4N 99.1W AT 25/0900Z AT 25/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 98.6W FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 22.7N 100.8W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/1500Z FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT72 KNHC 250834 *** SPFAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION GERT PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 4 AM CDT MON JUL 25 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 4 AM CDT...0900Z...THE DEPRESSION CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 99.1 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 1AM CDT THU JUL 28 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 99 X X X 99 MMSO 238N 982W 46 X X X 46 99 X X X 99 MMTM 222N 979W 99 X X X 99 99 X X X 99 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 1AM TUE FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 1AM TUE TO 1PM TUE C FROM 1PM TUE TO 1AM WED D FROM 1AM WED TO 1AM THU E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 1AM THU X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT42 KNHC 250836 *** TCDAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION GERT DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT MON JUL 25 2005 TAMPICO RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CENTER OF GERT CONTINUES MOVING INLAND...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATED TO BE 280/10. THIS GENERAL TRACK SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL THE CENTER DISSIPATES WITHIN 24 HOURS OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL MEXICO. IT SHOULD BE STRESSED THAT THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM IS RAINFALL... WHICH COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 25/0900Z 22.4N 99.1W 30 KT 12HR VT 25/1800Z 22.7N 100.8W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 24HR VT 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ ** WTNT21 KNHC 250837 *** TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062005 0900Z MON JUL 25 2005 INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FRANKLIN. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.8N 70.3W AT 25/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 70 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 50NE 225SE 50SW 50NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.8N 70.3W AT 25/0900Z AT 25/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.6N 70.8W FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 30.9N 69.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 31.2N 69.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 31.6N 68.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 32.2N 68.0W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 34.0N 66.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/0600Z 37.5N 63.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 30/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.8N 70.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/1500Z FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT41 KNHC 250837 *** TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT MON JUL 25 2005 THE CIRCULATION OF FRANKLIN HAS BEEN EXPOSED FOR ABOUT 24 HOURS NOW...WITH DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED ONLY IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT NO CLOSER THAN ABOUT 75 NMI FROM THE CENTER. A QUIKSCAT PASS NEAR 10Z YESTERDAY HAD SOME 40 KT VECTORS...AND IT IS PRESUMED THAT THE CYCLONE HAS WEAKENED SINCE THEN. SHIP WCOB RECENTLY REPORTED 29 KT JUST OUTSIDE OF THE CONVECTION...SO FRANKLIN IS MOST LIKELY STILL A TROPICAL STORM. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 35 KT...WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH DVORAK CI NUMBERS FROM ALL AGENCIES. AFTER DRIFTING SOUTHWARD EARLIER IN THE EVENING...FRANKLIN HAS BEEN MOVING MOSTLY EASTWARD FOR THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE INITIAL MOTION FOR THIS ADVISORY...070/4...IS A SMOOTHED VALUE OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE MAJOR DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS ACTUALLY COME INTO DECENT AGREEMENT ON WHAT LIES AHEAD. FRANKLIN HAS MISSED THE ADVANCING FRONTAL ZONE TO ITS NORTHEAST. A SECOND TROUGH/FRONTAL ZONE WILL MOVE INTO THE ATLANTIC IN A DAY OR SO...BUT THIS TOO PROBABLY WON'T PICK UP THE CYCLONE. A THIRD TROUGH IS LIKELY TO DO THE TRICK IN 72-96 HOURS...AND MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS FRANKLIN BECOMING ABSORBED WITHIN THIS TROUGH BEFORE THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. A CONTINUED ERRATIC TRACK IS TO BE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT THE OVERALL MOTION SHOULD BE TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR NORTHEAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDS THE SHALLOW BAM AND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE...AND IS CONSIDERABLY SLOWER AND TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK. EVEN WITH THIS ADJUSTMENT...MOST OF THE GUIDANCE LIES TO THE LEFT OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...AND THIS APPEARS TO LESSEN THE IMMEDIATE THREAT TO BERMUDA. NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND A DRY ENVIRONMENT ARE CURRENTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WEAKENING TREND...AND I DON'T SEE ANYTHING IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TO MAKE ME THINK THIS WILL CHANGE MUCH OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. HOWEVER...THE GFS...NOGAPS...AND UKMET ALL SEEM TO WANT TO LESSEN THE SHEAR OVER A SMALL AREA NEAR FRANKLIN...AND IF THIS HAPPENS...THE WATER UNDERNEATH WOULD BE WARM ENOUGH TO ALLOW SOME REDEVELOPMENT. EVEN SO...BOTH THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE SHOW CONTINUED SLOW WEAKENING...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST PRESUMES THAT FRANKLIN WILL EITHER BE TOO DISRUPTED BY THEN TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE LOWER SHEAR OR IT WILL NOT BE IN THE RIGHT PLACE. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 25/0900Z 30.8N 70.3W 35 KT 12HR VT 25/1800Z 30.9N 69.9W 35 KT 24HR VT 26/0600Z 31.2N 69.0W 30 KT 36HR VT 26/1800Z 31.6N 68.5W 30 KT 48HR VT 27/0600Z 32.2N 68.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 72HR VT 28/0600Z 34.0N 66.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 29/0600Z 37.5N 63.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 30/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ ** WTNT31 KNHC 250838 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT MON JUL 25 2005 ...FRANKLIN MOVING ERRATICALLY AS IT SLOWLY WEAKENS... INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FRANKLIN. AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.8 NORTH... LONGITUDE 70.3 WEST OR ABOUT 340 MILES... 545 KM... WEST-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA. FRANKLIN HAS BEEN MOVING ERRATICALLY OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...BUT ITS GENERAL MOTION HAS BEEN TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 5 MPH ... 7 KM/HR. A CONTINUED UNEVEN BUT GENERALLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. FRANKLIN COULD WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES ...220 KM TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES. REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT POSITION...30.8 N... 70.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM EDT. FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT71 KNHC 250838 *** SPFAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT MON JUL 25 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF FRANKLIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.3 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2AM EDT THU JUL 28 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 31.2N 69.0W 37 X X 1 38 BERMUDA X 2 5 6 13 31.6N 68.5W 22 2 1 1 26 MOREHEAD CITY NC X X X 2 2 32.2N 68.0W 13 4 2 2 21 CAPE HATTERAS NC X X X 3 3 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM TUE FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2AM TUE TO 2PM TUE C FROM 2PM TUE TO 2AM WED D FROM 2AM WED TO 2AM THU E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM THU X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT31 KNHC 250838 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT MON JUL 25 2005 ...FRANKLIN MOVING ERRATICALLY AS IT SLOWLY WEAKENS... INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FRANKLIN. AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.8 NORTH... LONGITUDE 70.3 WEST OR ABOUT 340 MILES... 545 KM... WEST-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA. FRANKLIN HAS BEEN MOVING ERRATICALLY OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...BUT ITS GENERAL MOTION HAS BEEN TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 5 MPH ... 7 KM/HR. A CONTINUED UNEVEN BUT GENERALLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. FRANKLIN COULD WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES ...220 KM TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES. REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT POSITION...30.8 N... 70.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM EDT. FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTCA42 TJSJ 250842 *** TCPSP2 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL GERT ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 8 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 4 AM CDT LUNES 25 DE JULIO DE 2005 ...GERT SE DEBILITA A UNA DEPRESION AUNQUE LA AMENAZA DE LLUVIA CONTINUA... A LAS 4 AM CDT...0900Z...EL GOBIERNO DE MEXICO HA DESCONTINUADO TODOS LAS AVISOS DE TORMENTA TROPICAL. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA EN SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE TIERRA...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DE METEOROLOGIA. A LAS 4 AM CDT...0900Z...EL CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL GERT FUE LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 22.4 NORTE...LONGITUD 99.1 OESTE O COMO A 80 MILLAS...125 KM...AL OESTE DE TAMPICO MEXICO. GERT SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE A CERCA DE 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL CONTINUE HASTA QUE LA CIRCULACION SE DISIPE SOBRE LAS MONTANAS DEL CENTRO DE MEXICO MAS TARDE HOY. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS HAN DISMINUIDO Y AHORA ESTAN EN CERCA DE 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE ESPERA UN DEBILITAMIENTO ADICIONAL MAS TARDE ESTA MANANA. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1007 MILIBARAS...29.74 PULGADAS. SON POSIBLES ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 3 A 5 PULGADAS...CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE HASTA 8 PULGADAS SOBRE TERRENOS MONTANOSOS...SON POSIBLES DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. ESTAS LLUVIAS PUDIERAN CAUSAR INUNDACIONES REPENTINAS Y DESLIZAMIENTOS DE LODO QUE PUDIERAN PONER EN RIESGO SUS VIDAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 4 AM CDT...22.4 NORTE... 99.1 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA...EL OESTE A CERCA DE 12 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 35 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1007 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 10 AM CDT. PRONOSTICADOR FRANKLIN $$ ** WTPN32 PGTW 250900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 07W (BANYAN) WARNING NR 016 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 250600Z --- NEAR 28.3N 136.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 350 DEGREES AT 13 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 28.3N 136.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 30.8N 136.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z --- 33.3N 137.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 18 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 261800Z --- 36.3N 139.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 23 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 270600Z --- 40.1N 143.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 27 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 280600Z --- 48.1N 153.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 250900Z POSITION NEAR 28.9N 136.5E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 07W (BANYAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 465 NM SOUTH- SOUTHWEST OF TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A TUTT CELL IS LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW IS HAMPERING INTENSIFICATION BY INHIBITING THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250600Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 251500Z, 252100Z, 260300Z AND 260900Z.// ** WTCA41 TJSJ 250851 *** TCPSP1 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL FRANKLIN ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 16 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT LUNES 25 DE JULIO DE 2005 ...FRANKLIN MOVIENDOSE ERRATICAMENTE A MEDIDA QUE SE DEBILITA LENTAMENTE... INTERESES EN BERMUDA DEBEN DE VIGILAR EL PROGRESO DE FRANKLIN. A LAS 5 AM EDT...0900Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL FRANKLIN ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 30.8 NORTE...LONGITUD 70.3 OESTE O COMO A 340 MILLAS...545 KM...AL OESTE SUROESTE DE BERMUDA. FRANKLIN SE HA ESTADO MOVIENDO ERRATICAMENTE DURANTE LAS PASADAS HORAS...PERO SU MOVIMIENTO GENERAL HA SIDO HACIA EL ESTE NORESTE A CERCA DE 5 MPH...7KM/HR. UN MOVIMIENTO GENERAL HACIA EL ESTE NORESTE SE ESPERA DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. FRANKLIN PUEDE DEBILITARSE A UNA DEPRESION TROPICAL DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 140 MILLAS...220 KM AL SURESTE DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ES DE 1008 MB...29.77 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 5 AM...30.8 NORTE... 70.3 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...ESTE NORESTE CERCA DE 5 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 40 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1008 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 11 AM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR FRANKLIN $$ ** WTJP31 RJTD 250900 *** WARNING 250900. WARNING VALID 260900. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0507 BANYAN (0507) 980 HPA AT 29.0N 137.0E NORTHWEST OF CHICHIJIMA MOVING NORTH 16 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 60 MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 450 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 325 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 260900UTC AT 34.6N 138.6E WITH 90 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 250900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0507 BANYAN (0507) ANALYSIS PSTN 250900UTC 29.0N 137.0E FAIR MOVE N 16KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 50KT 100NM EAST 60NM WEST 30KT 450NM EAST 325NM WEST FORECAST 24HF 260900UTC 34.6N 138.6E 90NM 70% MOVE N 14KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 45HF 270600UTC 40.5N 142.2E 170NM 70% MOVE NNE 19KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 69HF 280600UTC 44.6N 146.3E 290NM 70% MOVE NNE 12KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT =