** WTSR20 WSSS 241800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTSR20 WSSS 241800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTCA42 TJSJ 250025 *** TCPSP2 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL GERT ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 6A NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 7 PM CDT DOMINGO 24 DE JULIO DE 2005 ...EL CENTRO AMPLIO DE GERT ACERCANDOSE A LA COSTA MEXICANA EN LA VECINDAD DE TAMPICO... LLUVIAS MUY FUERTES CERCA DE LA COSTA... PERMANECE EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DESDE PALMA SOLA HACIA EL NORTE HASTA LA PESCA. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA EN SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE TIERRA...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DE METEOROLOGIA. A LAS 7 PM CDT...0000Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL GERT FUE LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 21.8 NORTE...LONGITUD 97.6 OESTE. ESTAPOSICION ESTA CERCA DE LA COSTA DE MEXICO ALREDEDOR DE 35 MILLAS...55 KM...AL SUR SURESTE DE TAMPICO MEXICO. GERT SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL CONTINUE POR LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. EN ESTA TRAYECTORIA EL CENTRO CRUZARA LA COSTA CERCA O JUSTO AL SUR DE TAMPICO EN LAS PROXIMAS HORAS. REPORTES DESDE UN AVION CAZA HURACANES EN UNA MISION DE INVESTIGACION INDICAN QUE LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 45 MPH...70 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. HAY POSIBILIDAD DE FORTALECIMIENTO LEVE ANTES DE QUE TOQUE TIERRA...SEGUIDO POR UN DEBILITAMIENTO DESPUES DE TOCAR TIERRA. UN AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO DE LA FUERZA AEREA ESTA ACTUALMENTE DIRIGIENDOSE A INVESTIGAR GERT. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 85 MILLAS...140 KM DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1007 MILIBARAS...29.74 PULGADAS. SON POSIBLES ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 4 A 8 PULGADAS...CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE HASTA 12 PULGADAS SOBRE TERRENOS MONTANOSOS A TRAVES DEL ESTE DE MEXICO. ESTAS LLUVIAS PUDIERAN CAUSAR INUNDACIONES REPENTINAS Y Y DESLIZAMIENTOS DE LODO QUE PUDIERAN PONER EN RIESGO SUS VIDAS...ESPECIALMENTE EN LAS AREAS PREVIAMENTE AFECTADAS POR EL HURACAN EMILY. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 7 PM CDT...21.8 NORTE... 97.6 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA...EL OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 10 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 45 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1007 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 10 PM CDT. PRONOSTICADOR BEVEN $$ ** WTJP21 RJTD 250000 *** WARNING 250000. WARNING VALID 260000. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0507 BANYAN (0507) 980 HPA AT 26.8N 137.0E WEST OF CHICHIJIMA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 11 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 60 MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 450 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 300 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 260000UTC AT 31.1N 136.8E WITH 90 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 270000UTC AT 37.3N 140.5E WITH 170 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 280000UTC AT 43.1N 144.8E WITH 270 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 250000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0507 BANYAN (0507) ANALYSIS PSTN 250000UTC 26.8N 137.0E FAIR MOVE NNW 11KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 50KT 100NM EAST 60NM WEST 30KT 450NM EAST 300NM WEST FORECAST 24HF 260000UTC 31.1N 136.8E 90NM 70% MOVE N 10KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 48HF 270000UTC 37.3N 140.5E 170NM 70% MOVE NNE 17KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 72HF 280000UTC 43.1N 144.8E 270NM 70% MOVE NNE 16KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 250000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS BANYAN 0507 (0507) INITIAL TIME 250000 UTC 00HR 26.9N 137.0E 980HPA 30M/S 30KTS 500KM 50KTS 150KM P12HR NNW 20KM/H P+24HR 32.6N 136.7E 975HPA 30M/S P+48HR 37.7N 140.6E 985HPA 23M/S P+72HR 45.0N 147.5E 995HPA 18M/S= ** WTPQ30 RJTD 250000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 8 FOR STS 0507 BANYAN (0507) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 250000 UTC IS FAIR. STS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN ACCELERA TE. STS WILL MOVE NORTH FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN MOVE TO NORTH-NORTHE AST. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST STS WILL BE GRADED UP TO TY WITHIN 24 HOURS. STS WILL DEVELOP BECAUSE CYCLONE WILL STAY IN HIGH SST AREA. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 4.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTKO20 RKSL 250000 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 5 NAME STS 0507 BANYAN ANALYSIS POSITION 250000UTC 26.8N 136.9E MOVEMENT NNW 11KT PRES/VMAX 980HPA 54KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 260000UTC 31.5N 136.4E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 970HPA 68KT 48HR POSITION 270000UTC 36.8N 140.0E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 980HPA 58KT 72HR POSITION 280000UTC 42.7N 146.0E WITHIN 215NM PRES/VMAX 990HPA 45KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPN32 PGTW 250300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 07W (BANYAN) WARNING NR 015 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 250000Z --- NEAR 26.8N 136.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 345 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 26.8N 136.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 251200Z --- 29.1N 136.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 260000Z --- 31.5N 136.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 261200Z --- 33.9N 137.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 20 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 270000Z --- 37.2N 140.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 21 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 280000Z --- 43.0N 148.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 21 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 290000Z --- 48.4N 157.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 250300Z POSITION NEAR 27.4N 136.8E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 07W (BANYAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 555 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250000Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 250900Z, 251500Z, 252100Z AND 260300Z.// ** WTNT71 KNHC 250232 *** SPFAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT SUN JUL 24 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF FRANKLIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.6 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8PM EDT WED JUL 27 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 31.0N 70.3W 99 X X X 99 BERMUDA X 1 6 6 13 31.7N 68.5W 13 14 X 1 28 NANTUCKET MA X X X 2 2 32.5N 67.2W X 12 5 3 20 HYANNIS MA X X X 2 2 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM MON FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8PM MON TO 8AM TUE C FROM 8AM TUE TO 8PM TUE D FROM 8PM TUE TO 8PM WED E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM WED X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT31 KNHC 250232 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT SUN JUL 24 2005 ...FRANKLIN TEMPORARILY STALLS...EXPECTED TO RESUME AN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION ON MONDAY... INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FRANKLIN. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR BERMUDA ON MONDAY. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.6 WEST OR ABOUT 410 MILES... 660 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA. FRANKLIN HAS BEEN DRIFTING TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH ... 6 KM/HR FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS. A SLOW AND ERRATIC DRIFT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH A MOTION TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST FORECAST TO RESUME ON MONDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH... 75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. FRANKLIN IS CURRENTLY IN AN AREA OF UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS...AND SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES ...140 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES. REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...30.9 N... 71.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM EDT. FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT21 KNHC 250233 *** TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062005 0300Z MON JUL 25 2005 INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FRANKLIN. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR BERMUDA ON MONDAY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.9N 71.6W AT 25/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OR 200 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 75SE 60SW 20NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 100SE 75SW 25NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.9N 71.6W AT 25/0300Z AT 25/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.1N 71.5W FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 30.8N 71.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 75SE 60SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 31.0N 70.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 50SE 50SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 31.7N 68.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 50SE 50SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 32.5N 67.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 34.0N 65.0W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 36.5N 61.5W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z 40.0N 55.0W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.9N 71.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0900Z FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT72 KNHC 250234 *** SPFAT2 TROPICAL STORM GERT PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF GERT WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 98.1 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 7PM CDT WED JUL 27 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 23.1N 100.9W 44 X X X 44 MMSO 238N 982W 39 X X X 39 99 X X X 99 MMTM 222N 979W 99 X X X 99 99 X X X 99 MMTX 210N 974W 99 X X X 99 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 7PM MON FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 7PM MON TO 7AM TUE C FROM 7AM TUE TO 7PM TUE D FROM 7PM TUE TO 7PM WED E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 7PM WED X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT32 KNHC 250235 *** TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM GERT ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2005 ...CENTER OF GERT MOVES INLAND JUST SOUTH OF TAMPICO...HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED OVER EASTERN MEXICO... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM PALMA SOLA NORTHWARD TO LA PESCA. THIS WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED ON MONDAY. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GERT WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 98.1 WEST OR ABOUT 20 MILES... 30 KM...SOUTHWEST OF TAMPICO MEXICO. GERT IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR... AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SOME SLOWING OF THE FORWARD SPEED. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF GERT FARTHER INLAND OVER EASTERN MEXICO TONIGHT. REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH... 75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE CENTER MOVES FARTHER INLAND. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES ...140 KM...FROM THE CENTER...MAINLY OVER WATER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 12 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN MEXICO. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS PREVIOUSLY AFFECTED BY HURRICANE EMILY. REPEATING THE 10 PM CDT POSITION...22.0 N... 98.1 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 4 AM CDT. FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT22 KNHC 250235 *** TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM GERT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072005 0300Z MON JUL 25 2005 A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM PALMA SOLA NORTHWARD TO LA PESCA. THIS WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED ON MONDAY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 98.1W AT 25/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 75NE 75SE 50SW 75NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 75SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 98.1W AT 25/0300Z...INLAND AT 25/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 97.6W FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 22.5N 99.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 23.1N 100.9W...INLAND DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.0N 98.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0900Z FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT42 KNHC 250236 *** TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM GERT DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT SUN JUL 24 2005 REPORTS FROM NOAA AND AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT... ALONG WITH SATELLITE...INDICATE THAT GERT WAS STARTING TO INTENSIFY AS IT MADE LANDFALL AT ABOUT 0000Z. WHILE THE CENTER STAYED BROAD...THE NOAA AIRCRAFT MEASURED FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 53 KT AT 11000 FT AT 2053Z...AND THE AIR FORCE PLANE MEASURED 47 KT AT 850 MB ON SEVERAL OCCASIONS AROUND 00Z. THE AIR FORCE PLANE COULD NOT QUITE REACH THE CENTER...BUT EXTRAPOLATED A PRESSURE OF 1006 MB JUST EAST OF THE CENTER. THIS DATA IS THE BASIS FOR THE LANDFALL INTENSITY OF 40 KT AND 1005 MB. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/10. GERT SHOULD CONTINUE THIS TRACK ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A STRONG LOW-MID/LEVEL RIDGE UNTIL THE CYCLONE DISSIPATES OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL MEXICO IN 24-36 HR. IT SHOULD BE STRESSED THAT THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM IS RAINFALL...AND RAINS FROM GERT WILL REACH SOME OF THE AREAS EARLIER AFFECTED BY EMILY...WHICH WOULD POSE AN INCREASED FLOOD THREAT. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 25/0300Z 22.0N 98.1W 40 KT...INLAND 12HR VT 25/1200Z 22.5N 99.3W 35 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 26/0000Z 23.1N 100.9W 25 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING 36HR VT 26/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ ** WTCA42 TJSJ 250243 *** TCPSP2 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL GERT ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 7 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 10 PM CDT DOMINGO 24 DE JULIO DE 2005 ...EL CENTRO DE GERT SE MUEVE A TIERRA JUSTO AL SUR DE TAMPICO...SE ESPERAN LLUVIAS FUERTES SOBRE EL ESTE DE MEXICO... PERMANECE EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DESDE PALMA SOLA HACIA EL NORTE HASTA LA PESCA. ESTE AVISO PUDIERA SER DESCONTINUADO EL LUNES. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA EN SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE TIERRA...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DE METEOROLOGIA. A LAS 10 PM CDT...0300Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL GERT FUE LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 22.0 NORTE...LONGITUD 98.1 OESTE O COMO A 20 MILLAS...30 KM...AL SUROESTE DE TAMPICO MEXICO. GERT SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL CONTINUE POR LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. EN ESTA TRAYECTORIA EL CENTRO ESTARA EN TIERRA SIBRE EL ESTE DE MEXICO. REPORTES DESDE UN AVION CAZA HURACANES EN UNA MISION DE INVESTIGACION INDICAN QUE LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 45 MPH...70 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. HAY POSIBILIDAD DE DEBILITAMIENTO DESPUES DE TOCAR TIERRA DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 85 MILLAS...140 KM DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1005 MILIBARAS...29.68 PULGADAS. SON POSIBLES ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 4 A 8 PULGADAS...CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE HASTA 12 PULGADAS SOBRE TERRENOS MONTANOSOS A TRAVES DEL ESTE DE MEXICO. ESTAS LLUVIAS PUDIERAN CAUSAR INUNDACIONES REPENTINAS Y Y DESLIZAMIENTOS DE LODO QUE PUDIERAN PONER EN RIESGO SUS VIDAS...ESPECIALMENTE EN LAS AREAS PREVIAMENTE AFECTADAS POR EL HURACAN EMILY. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 10 PM CDT...22.0 NORTE... 98.1 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA...EL OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 12 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 45 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1005 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LA 1 AM CDT SEGUIDA POR LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 4 AM CDT. PRONOSTICADOR BEVEN $$ ** WTCA41 TJSJ 250254 *** TCPSP1 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL FRANKLIN ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 15 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT DOMINGO 24 DE JULIO DE 2005 ...FRANKLIN ESTACIONADA TEMPORALMENTE...SE ESPERA QUE SIGA EN UNA TRAYECTORIA AL ESTE NORESTE EL LUNES... INTERESES EN BERMUDA DEBEN MONITOREAR EL PROGRESO DE FRANKLIN. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DEBERA SER REQUERIDA PARA BERMUDA EL LUNES. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA EN SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE TIERRA...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DE METEOROLOGIA. A LAS 11 PM EDT...0300Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL FRANKLIN ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 30.9 NORTE...LONGITUD 71.6 OESTE O COMO A 410 MILLAS...600 KM...AL OESTE SUROESTE DE BERMUDA. FRANKLIN SE ESTUVO MOVIENDO HACIA EL SUR SUROEST A CERCA DE 3 MPH... 6 KM/HR POR LAS PASADAS. SE ESPERA QUE UN CAMBIO LENTO Y ERRATICO ESTA NOCHE...CON UN MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL ESTE NORESTE EL LUNES. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS HAN DISMINUIDO A CERCA DE 45 MPH... 75 KM/HR CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. FRANKLIN ESTA ACTUALMENTE EN UN AREA DE VIENTOS DESFAVORABLES EN LOS NIVELES ALTOS...Y SE PRONOSTICA UN DEBILITAMIENTO LENTO ADICIONAL DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 85 MILLAS...140 KM DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ES DE 1005 MB...29.68 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION DE LAS 11 PM...30.9 NORTE... 71.6 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...ESTE NORESTE CERCA DE 3 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 45 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1005 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 5 AM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR BEVEN $$ ** WTNT41 KNHC 250257 *** TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT SUN JUL 24 2005 FRANKLIN IS BEING AFFECTED BY STRONG NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR THIS EVENING. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS NOW COMPLETELY EXPOSED...AND THE CONVECTIVE BURSTS TO THE SOUTHEAST ARE GENERALLY GETTING FARTHER AWAY FROM THE CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 45 KT FROM TAFB...AND 35 KT FROM SAB AND AFWA. BASED ON THESE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 40 KT. INTERESTING CHANGES HAVE OCCURRED IN THE MOTION THIS EVENING. FRANKLIN STOPPED MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD JUST AFTER 18Z...AND FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS HAS DRIFTED SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. THIS MOTION... WHICH WAS POORLY FORECAST BY THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE...IS LIKELY DUE TO A BUILDING LOW-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF FRANKLIN IN THE WAKE OF THE PREVIOUS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT. LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THIS RIDGE TO START WEAKENING IN 12 HR OR SO IN FRONT OF THE NEXT MID-LATITUDE TROUGH...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FRANKLIN TO RESUME THE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION FORECAST BY THE DYNAMICAL MODELS. THIS MOTION WILL LIKELY BE UNSTEADY...AS THE NEW TROUGH WILL LIKELY NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO WHISK FRANKLIN AWAY AND A FINAL NORTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION MAY HAVE TO WAIT FOR A THIRD TROUGH IN 3-4 DAYS TIME. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SLOWER AND SHIFTED SOUTHWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE SHALLOW-STEERING BAMS CALLS FOR FRANKLIN TO DO A LOOP BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE U. S. FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS. THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS CURRENTLY UNFAVORABLE...AND IF THE GFS AND THE CANADIAN ARE CORRECT IT WILL NOT BE GETTING FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST 48-72 HR. THE UKMET AND NOGAPS FORECAST A LESS HOSTILE...ALTHOUGH LESS THAN IDEAL...UPPER-LEVEL WIND PATTERN AFTER 48 HR...WHICH COULD ALLOW FRANKLIN TO RE-INTENSIFY IF THOSE MODELS ARE CORRECT. THE SHIPS MODEL FORECASTS STEADY WEAKENING THROUGH 120 HR...WHILE THE GFDL AND GFDN SHOW SOME INTENSIFICATION AFTER 24-36 HR. THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL GO WITH THE SHIPS SCENARIO...BUT MAINTAIN A HIGHER INTENSITY THAN THE SHIPS FORECAST DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. THE STALLING DELAYS THE NEED FOR TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OF WARNING FOR BERMUDA. HOWEVER...THEY MAY BE REQUIRED ON MONDAY. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 25/0300Z 30.9N 71.6W 40 KT 12HR VT 25/1200Z 30.8N 71.6W 40 KT 24HR VT 26/0000Z 31.0N 70.3W 35 KT 36HR VT 26/1200Z 31.7N 68.5W 35 KT 48HR VT 27/0000Z 32.5N 67.2W 30 KT 72HR VT 28/0000Z 34.0N 65.0W 25 KT 96HR VT 29/0000Z 36.5N 61.5W 25 KT 120HR VT 30/0000Z 40.0N 55.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING $$ ** WTJP31 RJTD 250300 *** WARNING 250300. WARNING VALID 260300. TYPHOON WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0507 BANYAN (0507) 980 HPA AT 27.3N 137.1E WEST OF CHICHIJIMA MOVING NORTH 10 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 60 MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 450 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 300 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 260300UTC AT 31.4N 137.0E WITH 90 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 250300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0507 BANYAN (0507) ANALYSIS PSTN 250300UTC 27.3N 137.1E FAIR MOVE N 10KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 50KT 100NM EAST 60NM WEST 30KT 450NM EAST 300NM WEST FORECAST 24HF 260300UTC 31.4N 137.0E 90NM 70% MOVE N 10KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 45HF 270000UTC 37.3N 140.5E 170NM 70% MOVE NNE 17KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 69HF 280000UTC 43.1N 144.8E 270NM 70% MOVE NNE 16KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT = ** WTNT32 KNHC 250536 *** TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM GERT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1 AM CDT MON JUL 25 2005 ...GERT WEAKENS AT IT MOVES INLAND...HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED OVER EASTERN MEXICO... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM PALMA SOLA NORTHWARD TO LA PESCA. THIS WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER THIS MORNING. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 1 AM CDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GERT WAS LOCATED INLAND NEAR LATITUDE 22.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 98.6 WEST OR ABOUT 45 MILES... 75 KM...WEST OF TAMPICO MEXICO. GERT IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR... AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SOME SLOWING OF THE FORWARD SPEED. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF GERT FARTHER INLAND OVER EASTERN MEXICO OVERNIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GERT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER THIS MORNING. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES ...140 KM...FROM THE CENTER...MAINLY OVER WATER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 12 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN MEXICO. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS PREVIOUSLY AFFECTED BY HURRICANE EMILY. REPEATING THE 1 AM CDT POSITION...22.3 N... 98.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 4 AM CDT. FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTCA42 TJSJ 250549 *** TCPSP2 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL GERT ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 7A NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 1 AM CDT LUNES 25 DE JULIO DE 2005 ...GERT SE DEBILITA A MEDIDA QUE SE MUEVA TIERRA ADENTRO...SE ESPERAN LLUVIAS FUERTES SOBRE EL ESTE DE MEXICO... PERMANECE EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DESDE PALMA SOLA HACIA EL NORTE HASTA LA PESCA. ESTE AVISO PUDIERA SER DESCONTINUADO MAS TARDE ESTA MANANA. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA EN SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE TIERRA...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DE METEOROLOGIA. A LA 1 AM CDT...0600Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL GERT FUE LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 22.3 NORTE...LONGITUD 98.6 OESTE O COMO A 45 MILLAS...75 KM...AL OESTE DE TAMPICO MEXICO. GERT SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL CONTINUE POR LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS CON UNA VELOCIDAD DE TRASLACION MAS LENTA. EN ESTA TRAYECTORIA EL CENTRO ESTARA MAS TIERRA ADENTRO SOBRE EL ESTE DE MEXICO. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE ESPERA QUE GERT SE DEBILITE A DEPRESION TROPICAL MAS TARDE ESTA MANANA. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 85 MILLAS...140 KM DEL CENTRO...MAYORMENTE SOBRE EL MAR. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1006 MILIBARAS...29.71 PULGADAS. SON POSIBLES ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 4 A 8 PULGADAS...CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE HASTA 12 PULGADAS SOBRE TERRENOS MONTANOSOS A TRAVES DEL ESTE DE MEXICO. ESTAS LLUVIAS PUDIERAN CAUSAR INUNDACIONES REPENTINAS Y Y DESLIZAMIENTOS DE LODO QUE PUDIERAN PONER EN RIESGO SUS VIDAS...ESPECIALMENTE EN LAS AREAS PREVIAMENTE AFECTADAS POR EL HURACAN EMILY. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 1 AM CDT...22.3 NORTE... 98.6 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA...EL OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 12 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 40 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1006 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 4 AM CDT. PRONOSTICADOR FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT80 EGRR 250555 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 25.07.2005 TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN ANALYSED POSITION : 31.8N 70.6W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 25.07.2005 31.8N 70.6W MODERATE 12UTC 25.07.2005 31.5N 71.8W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 26.07.2005 31.6N 71.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 26.07.2005 31.5N 71.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 27.07.2005 31.8N 71.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 27.07.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM GERT ANALYSED POSITION : 22.1N 97.4W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL072005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 25.07.2005 22.1N 97.4W STRONG 12UTC 25.07.2005 22.9N 100.1W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 26.07.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 250555