** WTPQ20 BABJ 241800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS BANYAN 0507 (0507) INITIAL TIME 241800 UTC 00HR 25.6N 137.4E 980HPA 30M/S 30KTS 500KM 50KTS 150KM P12HR NNW 20KM/H P+24HR 30.8N 135.9E 950HPA 45M/S P+48HR 36.0N 138.0E 965HPA 40M/S P+72HR 42.0N 142.2E 970HPA 35M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 241800 *** WARNING 241800. WARNING VALID 251800. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0507 BANYAN (0507) 980 HPA AT 25.7N 137.5E WEST OF CHICHIJIMA MOVING NORTH 13 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 60 MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 450 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 300 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 251800UTC AT 29.9N 136.0E WITH 90 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 960 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 261800UTC AT 35.1N 137.5E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 271800UTC AT 41.9N 143.0E WITH 290 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 241800 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0507 BANYAN (0507) ANALYSIS PSTN 241800UTC 25.7N 137.5E FAIR MOVE N 13KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 50KT 100NM SOUTHEAST 60NM NORTHWEST 30KT 450NM EAST 300NM WEST FORECAST 24HF 251800UTC 29.9N 136.0E 90NM 70% MOVE NNW 11KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 070KT 48HF 261800UTC 35.1N 137.5E 150NM 70% MOVE N 13KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT 72HF 271800UTC 41.9N 143.0E 290NM 70% MOVE NNE 20KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT = ** WTNT22 KNHC 242029 *** TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM GERT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072005 2100Z SUN JUL 24 2005 A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM PALMA SOLA NORTHWARD TO LA PESCA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 97.1W AT 24/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 97.1W AT 24/2100Z AT 24/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 96.6W FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 22.1N 98.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 22.7N 99.7W...INLAND...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 23.0N 101.0W...INLAND...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.6N 97.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0300Z FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTNT32 KNHC 242030 *** TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM GERT ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 4 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2005 ...GERT NEARING THE COAST...BRINGING VERY HEAVY RAINS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM PALMA SOLA NORTHWARD TO LA PESCA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GERT WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 97.1 WEST OR ABOUT 65 MILES... 105 KM... SOUTHEAST OF TAMPICO MEXICO. GERT IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH ...17 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER WILL CROSS THE COAST IN THE WARNING AREA LATER TODAY OR THIS EVENING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES ...140 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 12 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN MEXICO. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS PREVIOUSLY AFFECTED BY HURRICANE EMILY. REPEATING THE 4 PM CDT POSITION...21.6 N... 97.1 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 7 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 10 PM CDT. FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTNT42 KNHC 242031 *** TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM GERT DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT SUN JUL 24 2005 IN ADDITION TO THIS MORNING'S RECON MISSION...AN EARLIER TRMM OVERPASS WAS ALSO INCONCLUSIVE ABOUT GERT HAVING A WELL-DEFINED CENTER. NEVERTHELESS...HIGH-RESOLUTION VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE LITTLE CHANGE IN ORGANIZATION SINCE THIS MORNING. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUGGEST THAT THE CURRENT INTENSITY REMAINS NEAR 35 KT. THE SYSTEM HAS DECENT UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW...BUT THERE IS NOW ONLY A VERY SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR STRENGTHENING BEFORE LANDFALL. INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/9. THERE IS NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF GERT SHOULD MAINTAIN THE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION...BRINGING THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE TO THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO LATER TODAY OR THIS EVENING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK PRETTY MUCH FOLLOWS THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. IT SHOULD BE STRESSED THAT THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM IS RAINFALL...AND RAINS FROM GERT WILL REACH SOME OF THE AREAS EARLIER AFFECTED BY EMILY...WHICH WOULD POSE AN INCREASED FLOOD THREAT. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 24/2100Z 21.6N 97.1W 35 KT 12HR VT 25/0600Z 22.1N 98.2W 35 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 25/1800Z 22.7N 99.7W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 36HR VT 26/0600Z 23.0N 101.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 48HR VT 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ ** WTNT72 KNHC 242031 *** SPFAT2 TROPICAL STORM GERT PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 4 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF GERT WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 97.1 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 1PM CDT WED JUL 27 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 22.7N 99.7W 45 X X X 45 MMTM 222N 979W 99 X X X 99 23.0N 101.0W 26 3 X X 29 MMTX 210N 974W 99 X X X 99 99 X X X 99 BROWNSVILLE TX X 2 X X 2 MMSO 238N 982W 29 X X X 29 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 1PM MON FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 1PM MON TO 1AM TUE C FROM 1AM TUE TO 1PM TUE D FROM 1PM TUE TO 1PM WED E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 1PM WED X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTNT21 KNHC 242032 *** TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062005 2100Z SUN JUL 24 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.4N 70.9W AT 24/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 60 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 75SE 60SW 20NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 100SE 75SW 25NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.4N 70.9W AT 24/2100Z AT 24/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.3N 71.3W FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 31.9N 69.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 75SE 60SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 32.5N 67.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 50SE 50SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 33.3N 66.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 50SE 50SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 33.9N 65.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 50SE 50SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 35.5N 63.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 38.0N 60.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 41.0N 55.0W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.4N 70.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0300Z FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTNT31 KNHC 242032 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT SUN JUL 24 2005 ...FRANKLIN SLOWLY WEAKENING... AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE 70.9 WEST OR ABOUT 365 MILES... 585 KM... WEST OF BERMUDA. FRANKLIN IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH ...15 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES ...140 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES. REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...31.4 N... 70.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM EDT. FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTPN32 PGTW 242100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 07W (BANYAN) WARNING NR 014 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 241800Z --- NEAR 25.7N 137.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 010 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 25.7N 137.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 28.2N 137.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 30.6N 136.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z --- 33.1N 137.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 17 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 261800Z --- 36.0N 139.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 17 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 271800Z --- 41.2N 145.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 23 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 281800Z --- 46.6N 156.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 242100Z POSITION NEAR 26.3N 137.3E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 07W (BANYAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 600 NM SOUTH- SOUTHWEST OF TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241800Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 250300Z, 250900Z, 251500Z AND 252100Z.// ** WTNT41 KNHC 242032 *** TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT SUN JUL 24 2005 NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE STORM...AND THE LOW-CLOUD CENTER IS EXPOSED...OR NEAR THE NORTHWEST EDGE OF A RAGGED AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. ADDITIONALLY...THE LOW-CLOUD LINES APPEAR TO HAVE BECOME SLIGHTLY LESS WELL DEFINED. CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET AT 45 KT FOLLOWING LATEST DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB MIAMI. DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT STRONG SHEAR WILL PERSIST...SO CONTINUED GRADUAL WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST SHIPS OUTPUT. THE CYCLONE IS PREDICTED TO BE DISSIPATING OVER COLDER WATERS BY 120 HOURS...AND IF THE SHEAR CAUSES EVEN MORE VERTICAL DECOUPLING OF THE SYSTEM...IT COULD DISSIPATE SOONER THAN THAT. HOWEVER...THESE SHEARED TROPICAL CYCLONES HAVE BEEN KNOWN TO BE TENACIOUS. INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 060/8. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A MID-LEVEL TROUGH LIFTING AWAY FROM FRANKLIN WITH A DAY OR SO. THIS WILL WEAKEN THE STEERING CURRENTS. HOWEVER MOST OF THE TRACK MODELS MOVE THE SYSTEM FAR ENOUGH EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OR NORTHEASTWARD TO KEEP FRANKLIN FROM BEING BLOCKED BY A RIDGE THAT IS PREDICTED TO BUILD NEAR BERMUDA IN SEVERAL DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF AND JUST SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 24/2100Z 31.4N 70.9W 45 KT 12HR VT 25/0600Z 31.9N 69.4W 45 KT 24HR VT 25/1800Z 32.5N 67.7W 40 KT 36HR VT 26/0600Z 33.3N 66.4W 40 KT 48HR VT 26/1800Z 33.9N 65.4W 35 KT 72HR VT 27/1800Z 35.5N 63.5W 30 KT 96HR VT 28/1800Z 38.0N 60.0W 30 KT 120HR VT 29/1800Z 41.0N 55.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING $$ ** WTNT71 KNHC 242032 *** SPFAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT SUN JUL 24 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF FRANKLIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.9 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2PM EDT WED JUL 27 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 32.5N 67.7W 29 1 X 1 31 33.9N 65.4W 2 11 3 3 19 33.3N 66.4W 12 7 2 1 22 BERMUDA 1 9 4 3 17 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM MON FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2PM MON TO 2AM TUE C FROM 2AM TUE TO 2PM TUE D FROM 2PM TUE TO 2PM WED E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM WED X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTCA42 TJSJ 242054 *** TCPSP2 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL GERT ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 6 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 4 PM CDT DOMINGO 24 DE JULIO DE 2005 ...GERT ACERCANDOSE A LA COSTA...TRAYENDO LLUVIAS MUY FUERTES... PERMANECE EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DESDE PALMA SOLA HACIA EL NORTE HASTA LA PESCA. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA EN SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE TIERRA...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DE METEOROLOGIA. A LAS 4 PM CDT...2100Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL GERT FUE LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 21.6 NORTE...LONGITUD 97.1 OESTE O COMO A 65 MILLAS... 105 KM...AL SURESTE DE TAMPICO MEXICO. GERT SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL CONTINUE POR LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. EN ESTA TRAYECTORIA EL CENTRO CRUZARA LA COSTA DEL AREA BAJO AVISO MAS TARDE EN EL DIA DE HOY O AL ANOCHECER. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. HAY POSIBILIDAD DE FORTALECIMIENTO LEVE ANTES DE QUE TOQUE TIERRA. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 85 MILLAS...140 KM DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1009 MILIBARAS...29.80 PULGADAS. SON POSIBLES ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 4 A 8 PULGADAS...CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE HASTA 12 PULGADAS SOBRE TERRENOS MONTANOSOS A TRAVES DEL ESTE DE MEXICO. ESTAS LLUVIAS PUDIERAN CAUSAR INUNDACIONES REPENTINAS Y Y DESLIZAMIENTOS DE LODO QUE PUDIERAN PONER EN RIESGO SUS VIDAS...ESPECIALMENTE EN LAS AREAS PREVIAMENTE AFECTADAS POR EL HURACAN EMILY. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 4 PM CDT...21.6 NORTE... 97.1 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA...EL OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 10 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 40 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1009 MB. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 7 PM CDT SEGUIDA POR UNA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 10 PM CDT. PRONOSTICADOR PASCH $$ ** WTCA41 TJSJ 242058 *** TCPSP1 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL FRANKLIN ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 14 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT DOMINGO 24 DE JULIO DE 2005 ...FRANKLIN DEBILITANDOSE LENTAMENTE... A LAS 5 PM EDT...2100Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL FRANKLIN ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 31.4 NORTE...LONGITUD 70.9 OESTE O COMO A 365 MILLAS...585 KM...AL OESTE DE BERMUDA. FRANKLIN SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL ESTE NORESTE A CERCA DE 9 MPH... 15 KM/HR. SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO CONTINUE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS HAN DISMINUIDO A CERCA DE 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA UN DEBILITAMIENTO LENTO ADICIONAL DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 85 MILLAS...140 KM DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ES DE 10043 MB...29.65 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION DE LAS 5 PM...31.4 NORTE... 70.9 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...ESTE NORESTE CERCA DE 9 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 50 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1004 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 11 PM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR PASCH $$ ** WTJP31 RJTD 242100 *** WARNING 242100. WARNING VALID 252100. TYPHOON WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0507 BANYAN (0507) 980 HPA AT 26.3N 137.1E WEST OF CHICHIJIMA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 13 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 60 MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 450 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 300 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 252100UTC AT 30.5N 135.5E WITH 90 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 960 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 242100 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0507 BANYAN (0507) ANALYSIS PSTN 242100UTC 26.3N 137.1E FAIR MOVE NNW 13KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 50KT 100NM SOUTHEAST 60NM NORTHWEST 30KT 450NM EAST 300NM WEST FORECAST 24HF 252100UTC 30.5N 135.5E 90NM 70% MOVE NNW 11KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 070KT 45HF 261800UTC 35.1N 137.5E 150NM 70% MOVE N 13KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT 69HF 271800UTC 41.9N 143.0E 290NM 70% MOVE NNE 20KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT = ** WTNT62 KNHC 242239 *** TCUAT2 TROPICAL STORM GERT TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 640 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2005 REPORTS FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT ON A RESEARCH MISSION INDICATE THAT GERT HAS STRENGTHENED A LITTLE AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST OF MEXICO. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS DECREASED TO 1007 MB AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 45 MPH. FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT32 KNHC 242346 *** TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM GERT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 7 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2005 ...BROAD CENTER OF GERT NEARING THE MEXICAN COAST IN THE VICINITY OF TAMPICO...HEAVY RAINS SPREADING ONSHORE... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM PALMA SOLA NORTHWARD TO LA PESCA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 7 PM CDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GERT WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.8 NORTH... LONGITUDE 97.6 WEST. THIS POSITION IS NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO ABOUT 35 MILES... 55 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF TAMPICO MEXICO. GERT IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER WILL CROSS THE COAST NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF TAMPICO IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. REPORTS FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT ON A RESEARCH MISSION INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH... 70 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SLIGHT ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL...FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING AFTER LANDFALL. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY ENROUTE TO INVESTIGATE GERT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES ...140 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 12 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN MEXICO. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS PREVIOUSLY AFFECTED BY HURRICANE EMILY. REPEATING THE 7 PM CDT POSITION...21.8 N... 97.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 10 PM CDT. FORECASTER BEVEN $$