** WTSR20 WSSS 240600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTJP21 RJTD 241200 *** WARNING 241200. WARNING VALID 251200. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0507 BANYAN (0507) 980 HPA AT 24.4N 137.5E SOUTHWEST OF CHICHIJIMA MOVING NORTH 09 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 60 MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 450 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 300 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 251200UTC AT 30.0N 135.6E WITH 90 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 960 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 261200UTC AT 35.7N 137.4E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 955 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 271200UTC AT 42.7N 141.2E WITH 290 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 241200 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0507 BANYAN (0507) ANALYSIS PSTN 241200UTC 24.4N 137.5E FAIR MOVE N 09KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 50KT 100NM SOUTHEAST 60NM NORTHWEST 30KT 450NM EAST 300NM WEST FORECAST 24HF 251200UTC 30.0N 135.6E 90NM 70% MOVE NNW 14KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 070KT 48HF 261200UTC 35.7N 137.4E 150NM 70% MOVE N 14KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 075KT 72HF 271200UTC 42.7N 141.2E 290NM 70% MOVE NNE 18KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 241200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS BANYAN 0507 (0507) INITIAL TIME 241200 UTC 00HR 24.4N 137.5E 980HPA 30M/S 30KTS 600KM 50KTS 150KM P12HR N 20KM/H P+24HR 29.6N 135.8E 950HPA 45M/S P+48HR 33.8N 136.9E 940HPA 50M/S P+72HR 39.6N 139.9E 960HPA 40M/S= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 241200 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME DEVELOPING LOW FORMER TS 0506 NALGAE (0506) ANALYSIS PSTN 241200UTC 36N 164E MOVE ENE 10KT PRES 1000HPA MXWD 035KT 30KT 250NM NORTHEAST 170NM SOUTHWEST = ** WTPN32 PGTW 241500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 07W (BANYAN) WARNING NR 013 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 241200Z --- NEAR 24.6N 137.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 24.6N 137.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z --- 27.0N 136.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 251200Z --- 29.6N 135.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 260000Z --- 32.1N 136.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 14 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 261200Z --- 34.6N 137.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 156 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 17 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 271200Z --- 39.9N 143.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 22 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 281200Z --- 45.1N 152.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 241500Z POSITION NEAR 25.2N 137.0E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 07W (BANYAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 660 NM SOUTH- SOUTHWEST OF TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241200Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 242100Z, 250300Z, 250900Z AND 251500Z.// ** WTNT22 KNHC 241429 *** TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM GERT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072005 1500Z SUN JUL 24 2005 AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING NORTHWARD TO LA PESCA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM PALMA SOLA NORTHWARD TO LA PESCA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 96.2W AT 24/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 96.2W AT 24/1500Z AT 24/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 95.8W FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 21.7N 97.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 22.3N 98.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 22.7N 100.0W...INLAND...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.1N 96.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/2100Z FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTNT42 KNHC 241429 *** TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM GERT DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT SUN JUL 24 2005 THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS HAVE BEEN FLYING BACK AND FORTH ACROSS THE AREA WHERE THE CENTER IS SUSPECTED TO BE LOCATED...BUT SO FAR THEY HAVE BEEN UNABLE TO FIND A DEFINITE CENTER OF CIRCULATION. RATHER...THE DATA FROM THE PLANE SUGGEST A BROAD AREA OF LIGHT WINDS AND FLAT PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE AIRCRAFT WINDS ALSO SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF MULTIPLE CENTERS...ONE NEAR THE ADVISORY POSITION AND A SECOND NEAR THE OLD TRACK...I.E. FARTHER SOUTH. SINCE THE AIRCRAFT DATA ARE CERTAINLY NOT CONCLUSIVE...I WILL MAINTAIN CONTINUITY FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. THE ADVISORY LOCATION IS ALSO CONSISTENT WITH THE CLOUD SYSTEM CENTER ESTIMATE BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. GERT IS IN A LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT... AND IF THE CIRCULATION BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED...THE STORM COULD STRENGTHEN JUST BEFORE REACHING THE COASTLINE LATER TODAY. INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS AN UNCERTAIN 285/8. A DEEP LAYER RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF GERT SHOULD STEER THE STORM GENERALLY WEST- NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE ONE FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM IS RAINFALL...AND RAINS FROM GERT WILL REACH SOME OF THE AREAS EARLIER AFFECTED BY EMILY...WHICH WOULD POSE AN INCREASED FLOOD THREAT. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 24/1500Z 21.1N 96.2W 35 KT 12HR VT 25/0000Z 21.7N 97.3W 40 KT 24HR VT 25/1200Z 22.3N 98.7W 30 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 26/0000Z 22.7N 100.0W 25 KT...INLAND...DISSIPATING 48HR VT 26/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ ** WTNT32 KNHC 241430 *** TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM GERT ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 AM CDT SUN JUL 24 2005 ...GERT REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED BUT COULD STILL STRENGTHEN BEFORE LANDFALL... AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING NORTHWARD TO LA PESCA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM PALMA SOLA NORTHWARD TO LA PESCA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE BROAD AND POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GERT WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.1 NORTH... LONGITUDE 96.2 WEST OR ABOUT 135 MILES... 215 KM... SOUTHEAST OF TAMPICO MEXICO. GERT IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH ...15 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE TRACK THE CENTER WILL MAKE LANDFALL IN THE WARNING AREA THIS EVENING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES ... 140 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 12 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN MEXICO. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS PREVIOUSLY AFFECTED BY HURRICANE EMILY. REPEATING THE 10 AM CDT POSITION...21.1 N... 96.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 4 PM CDT. FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTNT72 KNHC 241430 *** SPFAT2 TROPICAL STORM GERT PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 AM CDT SUN JUL 24 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF GERT WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.2 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 7AM CDT WED JUL 27 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 22.3N 98.7W 46 X X X 46 MMTM 222N 979W 60 X X X 60 22.7N 100.0W 26 3 X X 29 MMTX 210N 974W 64 X X X 64 99 X X X 99 BROWNSVILLE TX X 2 X X 2 MMSO 238N 982W 20 2 X X 22 GULF 25N 96W 1 2 X X 3 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 7AM MON FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 7AM MON TO 7PM MON C FROM 7PM MON TO 7AM TUE D FROM 7AM TUE TO 7AM WED E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 7AM WED X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTNT21 KNHC 241431 *** TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062005 1500Z SUN JUL 24 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.9N 71.4W AT 24/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 70 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 0NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 30NE 75SE 60SW 20NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 100SE 75SW 25NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.9N 71.4W AT 24/1500Z AT 24/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.8N 71.8W FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 31.1N 70.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 30NE 75SE 60SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 31.5N 68.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 50SE 50SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 32.0N 67.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 50SE 50SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 32.5N 66.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 50SE 50SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 34.0N 64.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 50SE 50SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 36.0N 62.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 39.0N 57.0W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.9N 71.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/2100Z FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTNT31 KNHC 241431 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT SUN JUL 24 2005 ...FRANKLIN BECOMING DISORGANIZED... AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.4 WEST OR ABOUT 400 MILES... 645 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA. FRANKLIN IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 10 MPH ...17 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES ...140 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES. REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...30.9 N... 71.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM EDT. FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTNT41 KNHC 241431 *** TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT SUN JUL 24 2005 LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS GETTING THE BEST OF FRANKLIN. THERE IS AN EXPOSED LOW-CLOUD CENTER WITH A DISORGANIZED BLOB OF DEEP CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHEAST. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND ANALYSES FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN CIMSS SITE INDICATE SIGNIFICANT THAT FRANKLIN WILL BE MOVING INTO INCREASING SHEAR. WATER VAPOR LOOPS ALSO SHOW A BAND OF VERY DRY MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL AIR PRESSING SOUTHWARD INTO FRANKLIN. CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS HELD AT 55 KT FOLLOWING DVORAK RULES BUT THIS IS PROBABLY GENEROUS. GIVEN THE UNFAVORABLE FACTORS IN THE ENVIRONMENT...WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS IN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. FRANKLIN IS FORECAST TO BE DISSIPATING OVER COOLER WATERS NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...IF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER REMAINS DETACHED FROM THE DEEP CONVECTION...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE COULD DISSIPATE SOONER THAN INDICATED HERE. INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT 070/8. A MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS GRADUALLY LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE VICINITY OF THE TROPICAL STORM...SO STEERING CURRENTS WILL PROBABLY WEAKEN. TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW WIDELY VARYING FORECASTS OF FORWARD SPEED...SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE OF VARIOUS POSSIBLE SCENARIOS. THIS IS SIMILAR TO...BUT A LITTLE SLOWER THAN...THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST TRACK. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 24/1500Z 30.9N 71.4W 55 KT 12HR VT 25/0000Z 31.1N 70.1W 50 KT 24HR VT 25/1200Z 31.5N 68.5W 45 KT 36HR VT 26/0000Z 32.0N 67.4W 45 KT 48HR VT 26/1200Z 32.5N 66.4W 40 KT 72HR VT 27/1200Z 34.0N 64.5W 35 KT 96HR VT 28/1200Z 36.0N 62.0W 30 KT 120HR VT 29/1200Z 39.0N 57.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING $$ ** WTNT71 KNHC 241432 *** SPFAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT SUN JUL 24 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF FRANKLIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.4 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8AM EDT WED JUL 27 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 31.5N 68.5W 35 X 1 X 36 BERMUDA X 7 5 4 16 32.0N 67.4W 19 4 1 1 25 CAPE HATTERAS NC X X X 2 2 32.5N 66.4W 5 10 3 2 20 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM MON FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8AM MON TO 8PM MON C FROM 8PM MON TO 8AM TUE D FROM 8AM TUE TO 8AM WED E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM WED X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTJP31 RJTD 241500 *** WARNING 241500. WARNING VALID 251500. TYPHOON WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0507 BANYAN (0507) 980 HPA AT 25.0N 137.5E SOUTHWEST OF CHICHIJIMA MOVING NORTH 10 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 60 MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 450 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 300 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 251500UTC AT 30.5N 135.4E WITH 90 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 960 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 241500 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0507 BANYAN (0507) ANALYSIS PSTN 241500UTC 25.0N 137.5E FAIR MOVE N 10KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 50KT 100NM SOUTHEAST 60NM NORTHWEST 30KT 450NM EAST 300NM WEST FORECAST 24HF 251500UTC 30.5N 135.4E 90NM 70% MOVE NNW 14KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 070KT 45HF 261200UTC 35.7N 137.4E 150NM 70% MOVE N 14KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 075KT 69HF 271200UTC 42.7N 141.2E 290NM 70% MOVE NNE 18KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT = ** WTNT80 EGRR 241710 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 24.07.2005 TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN ANALYSED POSITION : 30.6N 71.6W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 24.07.2005 30.6N 71.6W MODERATE 00UTC 25.07.2005 31.2N 70.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 25.07.2005 31.2N 69.3W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 26.07.2005 31.2N 68.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 26.07.2005 32.1N 66.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 27.07.2005 33.0N 65.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 27.07.2005 33.7N 65.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 28.07.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM GERT ANALYSED POSITION : 21.0N 95.6W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL072005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 24.07.2005 21.0N 95.6W MODERATE 00UTC 25.07.2005 22.0N 97.5W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 25.07.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH INLAND THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 241710 ** WTNT32 KNHC 241736 *** TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM GERT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2005 ...GERT APPROACHING THE COAST OF MEXICO...HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM PALMA SOLA NORTHWARD TO LA PESCA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 1 PM CDT...1800Z...THE BROAD AND POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GERT WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE 96.6 WEST OR ABOUT 100 MILES... 165 KM... SOUTHEAST OF TAMPICO MEXICO. GERT IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH ...15 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER WILL MAKE LANDFALL IN THE WARNING AREA LATER TODAY OR THIS EVENING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES ... 140 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 12 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN MEXICO. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS PREVIOUSLY AFFECTED BY HURRICANE EMILY. REPEATING THE 1 PM CDT POSITION...21.4 N... 96.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 4 PM CDT. FORECASTER PASCH $$