** WTIN20 DEMS 240640 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE NEW DELHI 24-07-2005 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) A WELLMARKED LOW PRESSURE AREA FORMED OVER NORTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL OFF ORISSA AND WEST BENGAL COAST. THE SYSTEM LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER IN TO A DEPRESSION. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS INTENSE CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE AREA. CONVECTIVE CLOUDS AREA ALSO SEEN OVER PARTS OF EAST-CENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL AND ANDAMAN SEA AND EAST CENTRAL ARABIAN SEA OFF KONKAN AND GOA AND KARNATAKA COAST (.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 29.0 DEG. NORTH OVER INDIAN REGION (.) ** WTJP21 RJTD 240600 *** WARNING 240600. WARNING VALID 250600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0507 BANYAN (0507) 980 HPA AT 23.5N 137.4E EAST OF MINAMIDAITOJIMA MOVING NORTH 16 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 60 MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 450 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 350 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 250600UTC AT 28.7N 135.5E WITH 90 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 965 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 260600UTC AT 32.8N 134.8E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 955 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 270600UTC AT 39.5N 139.5E WITH 290 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 965 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 240600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0507 BANYAN (0507) ANALYSIS PSTN 240600UTC 23.5N 137.4E FAIR MOVE N 16KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 50KT 100NM SOUTHEAST 60NM NORTHWEST 30KT 450NM EAST 350NM WEST FORECAST 24HF 250600UTC 28.7N 135.5E 90NM 70% MOVE NNW 12KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 065KT 48HF 260600UTC 32.8N 134.8E 150NM 70% MOVE N 12KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 075KT 72HF 270600UTC 39.5N 139.5E 290NM 70% MOVE NNE 20KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 065KT = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 240600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS BANYAN 0507 (0507) INITIAL TIME 240600 UTC 00HR 23.4N 137.0E 980HPA 30M/S 30KTS 500KM 50KTS 150KM P12HR NNW 25KM/H P+24HR 27.3N 134.7E 950HPA 45M/S P+48HR 31.9N 134.9E 940HPA 50M/S P+72HR 36.5N 138.0E 940HPA 50M/S= ** WTJP22 RJTD 240600 *** WARNING 240600. WARNING VALID 250600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. GALE WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0506 NALGAE (0506) 996 HPA AT 35.1N 162.7E FAR OFF EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTH 08 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 250 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 170 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 250600UTC AT 39.1N 164.9E WITH 100 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS. BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 240600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0506 NALGAE (0506) ANALYSIS PSTN 240600UTC 35.1N 162.7E FAIR MOVE N 08KT PRES 996HPA MXWD 035KT 30KT 250NM NORTHEAST 170NM SOUTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 250600UTC 39.1N 164.9E 100NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTKO20 RKSL 240600 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 5 NAME TS 0506 NALGAE ANALYSIS POSITION 240600UTC 35.1N 162.9E MOVEMENT N 8KT PRES/VMAX 996HPA 37KT FORECAST 12HR POSITION 241800UTC 36.1N 164.0E WITHIN 45NM PRES/VMAX 998HPA 35KT 24HR POSITION 250600UTC 37.7N 166.3E WITHIN 80NM PRES 1000HPA KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTNT32 KNHC 240837 *** TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM GERT ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 4 AM CDT SUN JUL 24 2005 ...GERT RE-ORGANIZING NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM PALMA SOLA TO LA CRUZ. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE NORTH OF THE WARNING AREA AS FAR NORTH AS LA PESCA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. DATA FROM A NOAA AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF GERT HAS REFORMED NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS CENTER. AT 4 AM CDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GERT WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.0 NORTH... LONGITUDE 95.4 WEST OR ABOUT 180 MILES... 290 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF TAMPICO MEXICO. GERT IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH ...17 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF GERT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE COASTLINE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA THIS EVENING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY TODAY PRIOR TO LANDFALL. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES ... 95 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1011 MB...29.85 INCHES. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 7 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 10 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN MEXICO. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS PREVIOUSLY AFFECTED BY HURRICANE EMILY. REPEATING THE 4 AM CDT POSITION...21.0 N... 95.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 7 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 10 AM CDT. FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT42 KNHC 240838 *** TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM GERT DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT SUN JUL 24 2005 A SLEW OF DROPSONDES FROM A NOAA P-3 AIRCRAFT CONDUCTING A RESEARCH MISSION IN GERT INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAS REFORMED ABOUT 60 NMI NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK. THIS NEW CENTER IS RIGHT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE COLDEST CONVECTION...AND WHILE THE DROPSONDE DATA WITHIN THIS CONVECTION HAVE NOT INDICATED ANY STRENGTHENING YET...IN FACT THE WINDS AROUND THE NEW CENTER ARE QUITE LIGHT...THIS IMPROVEMENT IN THE ORGANIZATION OF THE CYCLONE SUGGESTS THAT SOME INTENSIFICATION IS LIKELY IN THE 12-18 HOURS PRIOR TO LANDFALL. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 35 KT BASED ON THE EARLIER STEPPED-FREQUENCY MICROWAVE OBSERVATIONS. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TRACK EXCEPT TO ADJUST IT NORTHWARD TO ACCOMODATE THE NEW INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/9...AND MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THIS MOTION PRIOR TO LANDFALL. ATTEMPTS TO COORDINATE WITH THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO AN EXTENSION OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING NORTHWARD WERE NOT SUCCESSFUL...BUT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FROM PALMA SOLA TO LA PESCA. THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM IS RAINFALL...AND RAINS FROM GERT WILL REACH SOME OF THE AREAS EARLIER AFFECTED BY EMILY. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 24/0900Z 21.0N 95.4W 35 KT 12HR VT 24/1800Z 21.4N 96.8W 40 KT 24HR VT 25/0600Z 22.0N 98.5W 30 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 25/1800Z 22.8N 99.9W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 48HR VT 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ ** WTNT22 KNHC 240839 *** TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM GERT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072005 0900Z SUN JUL 24 2005 A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM PALMA SOLA TO LA CRUZ. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE NORTH OF THE WARNING AREA AS FAR NORTH AS LA PESCA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 95.4W AT 24/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1011 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 95.4W AT 24/0900Z AT 24/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 95.0W FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 21.4N 96.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 25SE 25SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 22.0N 98.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 22.8N 99.9W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.0N 95.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/1500Z FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT72 KNHC 240839 *** SPFAT2 TROPICAL STORM GERT PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 4 AM CDT SUN JUL 24 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 4 AM CDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF GERT WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.4 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 1AM CDT WED JUL 27 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 22.0N 98.5W 43 X X X 43 MMTX 210N 974W 57 X X X 57 22.8N 99.9W 17 10 X X 27 MMVR 192N 961W 2 X X X 2 99 X X X 99 BROWNSVILLE TX X 2 X X 2 MMSO 238N 982W 14 6 X X 20 GULF 25N 96W 1 2 X X 3 MMTM 222N 979W 48 X X X 48 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 1AM MON FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 1AM MON TO 1PM MON C FROM 1PM MON TO 1AM TUE D FROM 1AM TUE TO 1AM WED E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 1AM WED X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT21 KNHC 240845 *** TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062005 0900Z SUN JUL 24 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.5N 72.3W AT 24/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 70 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 0NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 30NE 75SE 60SW 20NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 100SE 75SW 25NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.5N 72.3W AT 24/0900Z AT 24/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.3N 72.7W FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 30.9N 70.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 30NE 75SE 60SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 31.3N 69.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 50SE 50SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 31.6N 67.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 50SE 50SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 32.0N 66.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 50SE 50SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 34.0N 63.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 50SE 50SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z 36.0N 60.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 29/0600Z 39.0N 54.5W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.5N 72.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/1500Z FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT31 KNHC 240845 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT SUN JUL 24 2005 ...FRANKLIN CONTINUES EAST-NORTHEASTWARD... AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.5 NORTH... LONGITUDE 72.3 WEST OR ABOUT 460 MILES... 740 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA. FRANKLIN IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH ...15 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. FRANKLIN IS STARTING TO BECOME DISORGANIZED AND WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES ...140 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES. REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT POSITION...30.5 N... 72.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM EDT. FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT71 KNHC 240846 *** SPFAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT SUN JUL 24 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF FRANKLIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.3 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2AM EDT WED JUL 27 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 31.3N 69.2W 37 1 X X 38 32.0N 66.5W 2 13 3 2 20 31.6N 67.8W 16 7 1 1 25 BERMUDA X 5 6 5 16 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM MON FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2AM MON TO 2PM MON C FROM 2PM MON TO 2AM TUE D FROM 2AM TUE TO 2AM WED E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM WED X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTPQ30 RJTD 240600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 7 FOR TS 0507 BANYAN (0507) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 240600 UTC IS FAIR. TS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS THEN DECELERAT E. TS WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS THEN MOVE TO NOR TH-NORTHEAST. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TS WILL BE GRADED UP TO TY WITHIN 24 HOURS. TS WILL DEVELOP BECAUSE CYCLONE WILL STAY IN HIGH SST AREA. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 4.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPQ31 RJTD 240600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO.10 FOR TS 0506 NALGAE (0506) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 240600 UTC IS FAIR. TS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS. TS WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHEAST FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST FI-NUMBER WILL BE 1.5 AFTER 24 HOURS. TS WILL BE TRANSFORMED TO EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 12 HOURS.= ** WTPN32 PGTW 240900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 07W (BANYAN) WARNING NR 012 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 240600Z --- NEAR 23.4N 137.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 355 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 23.4N 137.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 25.6N 136.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 28.0N 135.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 29.8N 135.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z --- 31.9N 135.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 156 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 270600Z --- 36.3N 138.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 162 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 14 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 280600Z --- 40.6N 143.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 17 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 290600Z --- 44.7N 150.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 240900Z POSITION NEAR 24.0N 136.9E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 07W (BANYAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 245 NM WEST- SOUTHWEST OF IWO JIMA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THE SYSTEM HAS ACCELERATED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS DUE TO THE WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. THE EASTERN SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD WESTWARD INCREASING THE STEERING GRADIENT. THIS ACCELERATION IS REFLECTED IN THE TRACK FORECAST AND RESULTS IN EARLIER CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH CALCULATIONS THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240600Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 241500Z, 242100Z, 250300Z AND 250900Z.// ** WTNT41 KNHC 240905 *** TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT SUN JUL 24 2005 RECONNAISSANCE REPORTS UP UNTIL 06Z INDICATED THAT FRANKLIN WAS...AT LEAST TO THAT POINT...HOLDING ITS OWN AGAINST NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR. MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS WERE 58 KT...AND A DROPSONDE AT 0516Z REPORTED 49 KT AT THE SURFACE IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. THE LAST CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE AIRCRAFT WAS BACK DOWN TO 1001 MB. BASED ON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 55 KT. SINCE THE AIRCRAFT LEFT THE CYCLONE HOWEVER...THE CENTER HAS BECOME MOSTLY EXPOSED ON THE NORTHWEST EDGE OF A SMALL AREA OF COLD CONVECTION...WITH A RAGGED BAND LOCATED WELL TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER. THE NEXT RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHT THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY FIND A WEAKER SYSTEM. THE MOTION HAS BEEN UNSTEADY BUT A SMOOTHED ESTIMATE IS 070/8. THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST TRACK AS THE DYNAMICAL MODELS OFFER WIDELY DIFFERENT SCENARIOS. THE UKMET AND NOGAPS MAINTAIN A STRONG CYCLONE AND TAKE IT SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD ON THE NORTHWEST OF A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE OTHER EXTREME IS OFFERED BY THE GFS...WHICH CONTINUES WITH A RAPID EAST-NORTHEASTWARD PROGRESSION OF A WEAK AND DECOUPLED SYSTEM. I LIKE THE IDEA OF A WEAK AND SHALLOW VORTEX...ESPECIALLY GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS AND THE APPROACH OF DRY UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW...AS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. HOWEVER...THE GFS SEEMS WAY TOO FAST AND I HAVE BASED THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MORE ON THE SHALLOW BAM AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE...AS WELL AS CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE UPPER ENVIRONMENT LOOKS TO BE VERY HOSTILE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...AND IF THE FORECAST TRACK IS AT ALL CORRECT... FRANKLIN WILL BE MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS BY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. CONSEQUENTLY...A GRADUAL DECLINE IS FORECAST...BUT THE CYCLONE COULD DISSIPATE MUCH MORE QUICKLY THAN INDICATED BY THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 24/0900Z 30.5N 72.3W 55 KT 12HR VT 24/1800Z 30.9N 70.8W 50 KT 24HR VT 25/0600Z 31.3N 69.2W 45 KT 36HR VT 25/1800Z 31.6N 67.8W 45 KT 48HR VT 26/0600Z 32.0N 66.5W 40 KT 72HR VT 27/0600Z 34.0N 63.5W 35 KT 96HR VT 28/0600Z 36.0N 60.0W 30 KT 120HR VT 29/0600Z 39.0N 54.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING $$ ** WTPQ20 RJTD 240900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0507 BANYAN (0507) ANALYSIS PSTN 240900UTC 24.0N 137.4E FAIR MOVE N 13KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 50KT 100NM SOUTHEAST 60NM NORTHWEST 30KT 450NM EAST 350NM WEST FORECAST 24HF 250900UTC 29.8N 135.4E 90NM 70% MOVE NNW 15KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 070KT 45HF 260600UTC 32.8N 134.8E 150NM 70% MOVE N 12KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 075KT 69HF 270600UTC 39.5N 139.5E 290NM 70% MOVE NNE 20KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 065KT = ** WTJP31 RJTD 240900 *** WARNING 240900. WARNING VALID 250900. TYPHOON WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0507 BANYAN (0507) 980 HPA AT 24.0N 137.4E EAST OF MINAMIDAITOJIMA MOVING NORTH 13 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 60 MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 450 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 350 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 250900UTC AT 29.8N 135.4E WITH 90 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 960 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 240900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0506 NALGAE (0506) ANALYSIS PSTN 240900UTC 35.2N 163.3E FAIR MOVE NE SLOWLY PRES 996HPA MXWD 035KT 30KT 250NM NORTHEAST 170NM SOUTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 250900UTC 39.2N 165.1E 100NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTNT32 KNHC 241156 *** TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM GERT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 7 AM CDT SUN JUL 24 2005 ...GERT IS POORLY ORGANIZED... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM PALMA SOLA TO LA CRUZ. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE NORTH OF THE WARNING AREA AS FAR NORTH AS LA PESCA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 7 AM CDT...1200Z...THE BROAD AND POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GERT WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.1 NORTH... LONGITUDE 95.8 WEST OR ABOUT 155 MILES... 250 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF TAMPICO MEXICO. GERT IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH ...17 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF GERT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE COASTLINE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA THIS EVENING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES ... 95 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 7 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 10 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN MEXICO. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS PREVIOUSLY AFFECTED BY HURRICANE EMILY. REPEATING THE 7 AM CDT POSITION...21.1 N... 95.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 10 AM CDT. FORECASTER PASCH $$