** WTSR20 WSSS 231800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 240000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS BANYAN 0507 (0507) INITIAL TIME 240000 UTC 00HR 21.6N 137.8E 980HPA 30M/S 30KTS 500KM 50KTS 150KM P12HR NNW 15KM/H P+24HR 25.0N 135.6E 950HPA 45M/S P+48HR 29.6N 134.8E 940HPA 50M/S P+72HR 33.9N 137.0E 940HPA 50M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 240000 *** WARNING 240000. WARNING VALID 250000. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0507 BANYAN (0507) 980 HPA AT 21.6N 137.7E NORTHEAST OF PARECE VERA MOVING NORTHEAST 10 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 60 MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 450 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 350 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 250000UTC AT 25.4N 135.9E WITH 90 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 965 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 260000UTC AT 29.8N 134.9E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 955 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 270000UTC AT 35.9N 136.7E WITH 290 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 965 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 240000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0507 BANYAN (0507) ANALYSIS PSTN 240000UTC 21.6N 137.7E FAIR MOVE NE 10KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 50KT 100NM SOUTHEAST 60NM NORTHWEST 30KT 450NM EAST 350NM WEST FORECAST 24HF 250000UTC 25.4N 135.9E 90NM 70% MOVE NNW 10KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 065KT 48HF 260000UTC 29.8N 134.9E 150NM 70% MOVE N 11KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 075KT 72HF 270000UTC 35.9N 136.7E 290NM 70% MOVE NNE 15KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 065KT = ** WTJP22 RJTD 240000 *** WARNING 240000. WARNING VALID 250000. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. GALE WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0506 NALGAE (0506) 996 HPA AT 34.4N 162.8E FAR OFF EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHEAST 15 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 250 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 170 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 250000UTC AT 38.1N 166.6E WITH 100 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS. BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 240000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0506 NALGAE (0506) ANALYSIS PSTN 240000UTC 34.4N 162.8E FAIR MOVE NE 15KT PRES 996HPA MXWD 035KT 30KT 250NM NORTHEAST 170NM SOUTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 250000UTC 38.1N 166.6E 100NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTPQ30 RJTD 240000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 6 FOR TS 0507 BANYAN (0507) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 240000 UTC IS FAIR. TS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TS WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TS WILL BE GRADED UP TO STS WITHIN 24 HOURS. TS WILL DEVELOP BECAUSE CYCLONE WILL STAY IN HIGH SST AREA. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 4.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPQ31 RJTD 240000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 9 FOR TS 0506 NALGAE (0506) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 240000 UTC IS FAIR. TS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TS WILL MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TS WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 1.5 AFTER 24 HOURS. TS WILL BE TRANSFORMED TO EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 24 HOURS.= ** WTKO20 RKSL 240000 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 4 NAME STS 0507 BANYAN ANALYSIS POSITION 240000UTC 21.6N 137.7E MOVEMENT NE 10KT PRES/VMAX 980HPA 54KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 250000UTC 25.2N 135.8E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 970HPA 68KT 48HR POSITION 260000UTC 29.5N 134.3E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 960HPA 76KT 72HR POSITION 270000UTC 34.6N 135.9E WITHIN 215NM PRES/VMAX 970HPA 68KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPN32 PGTW 240300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 07W (BANYAN) WARNING NR 011 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 240000Z --- NEAR 21.7N 137.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 21.7N 137.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z --- 23.4N 136.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z --- 24.9N 135.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 251200Z --- 26.3N 135.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 260000Z --- 27.8N 134.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 270000Z --- 30.3N 134.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 12 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 280000Z --- 34.6N 137.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 20 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 290000Z --- 40.1N 145.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 240300Z POSITION NEAR 22.1N 137.1E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 07W (BANYAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 290 NM SOUTHWEST OF IWO JIMA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED VISIBLE AND MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE DEEPEST CONVECTION REMAINS ON THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SIDE OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). HOWEVER, A 232121Z SSM/I PASS REVEALS AN ORGANIZING SYSTEM WITH A MORE COMPACT CIRCULATION THAN 24 HOURS AGO. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240000Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240900Z, 241500Z, 242100Z AND 250300Z.// ** WTNT21 KNHC 240239 *** TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062005 0300Z SUN JUL 24 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.3N 72.9W AT 24/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 65 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 0NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 30NE 70SE 60SW 20NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 100SE 75SW 20NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.3N 72.9W AT 24/0300Z AT 24/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.0N 73.4W FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 30.9N 71.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 25SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 30NE 75SE 75SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 31.5N 69.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 25SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 30NE 75SE 75SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 32.0N 68.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 25SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 30NE 75SE 75SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 32.5N 67.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 25SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 30NE 75SE 75SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 33.5N 64.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 75SE 75SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 35.0N 61.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 38.5N 56.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.3N 72.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0900Z FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT22 KNHC 240239 *** TCMAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072005 0300Z SUN JUL 24 2005 AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF MEXICO NORTHWARD TO LA CRUZ. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM PALMA SOLA TO LA CRUZ. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 94.1W AT 24/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 94.1W AT 24/0300Z AT 24/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 93.7W FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 20.2N 95.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 21.0N 97.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 22.0N 98.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 23.0N 100.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.7N 94.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0900Z FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT31 KNHC 240240 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT SAT JUL 23 2005 ...FRANKLIN A LITTLE WEAKER... AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.9 WEST OR ABOUT 500 MILES... 800 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA. FRANKLIN IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 12 MPH ...19 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES ...130 KM FROM THE CENTER. LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES. REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...30.3 N... 72.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM EDT. FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT71 KNHC 240240 *** SPFAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT SAT JUL 23 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF FRANKLIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.9 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8PM EDT TUE JUL 26 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 31.5N 69.5W 41 X X X 41 32.5N 67.0W 7 9 2 1 19 32.0N 68.0W 21 2 1 X 24 BERMUDA X 7 4 3 14 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM SUN FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8PM SUN TO 8AM MON C FROM 8AM MON TO 8PM MON D FROM 8PM MON TO 8PM TUE E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM TUE X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTCA41 TJSJ 240245 *** TCPSP1 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL FRANKLIN ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 11 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT SABADO 23 DE JULIO DE 2005 ...FRANKLIN UN POCO MAS DEBIL... A LAS 11 PM EDT...0300Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL FRANKLIN ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 30.3 NORTE...LONGITUD 72.9 OESTE O COMO A 500 MILLAS...800 KM...AL OESTE SUROESTE DE BERMUDA. FRANKLIN SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL ESTE NORESTE A CERCA DE 12 MPH... 19 KM/HR. SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO CONTINUE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 12 A 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 65 MPH... 100 KM/HR CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA POCO CAMBIO EN FUERZA DUARNTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 80 MILLAS...130 KM DEL CENTRO. LA ULTIMA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA REPORTADA POR UN AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO FUE DE 1003 MB...29.62 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION DE LAS 11 PM...30.3 NORTE... 72.9 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...ESTE NORESTE CERCA DE 12 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 65 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1003 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 5 AM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR AVILA $$ ** WTNT72 KNHC 240245 *** SPFAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 PM CDT SAT JUL 23 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE DEPRESSION CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.1 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 7PM CDT TUE JUL 26 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 21.0N 97.0W 44 X X X 44 MMTX 210N 974W 39 1 X X 40 22.0N 98.5W 13 15 X X 28 MMVR 192N 961W 40 X X X 40 23.0N 100.0W X 18 4 X 22 BROWNSVILLE TX X 1 5 X 6 MMSO 238N 982W X 14 5 X 19 GULF 25N 96W X 2 4 X 6 MMTM 222N 979W 16 12 X X 28 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 7PM SUN FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 7PM SUN TO 7AM MON C FROM 7AM MON TO 7PM MON D FROM 7PM MON TO 7PM TUE E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 7PM TUE X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT32 KNHC 240245 *** TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 PM CDT SAT JUL 23 2005 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED... AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF MEXICO NORTHWARD TO LA CRUZ. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM PALMA SOLA TO LA CRUZ. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE POORLY DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.1 WEST OR ABOUT 140 MILES... 225 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF VERACRUZ MEXICO AND ABOUT 230 MILES... 375 KM...EAST-SOUTH EAST OF TUXPAN MEXICO. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH ...17 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON SUNDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE LANDFALL IN MEXICO. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 8 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN MEXICO. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS PREVIOUSLY AFFECTED BY HURRICANE EMILY. REPEATING THE 10 PM CDT POSITION...19.7 N... 94.1 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 4 AM CDT. FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT42 KNHC 240251 *** TCDAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT SAT JUL 23 2005 DATA FROM A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE PLANE...CURRENTLY IN A TROPICAL CYCLONE GENESIS MISSION IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...INDICATE THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH WIND GUSTS OF TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BEEN GRADUALLY INCREASING NEAR THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION. HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM DOES NOT HAVE A WELL DEFINED INNER CORE YET. INITIAL INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED AT 30 KNOTS AND WITH LOW SHEAR AND WARM WATERS ALONG THE PATH OF THE CYCLONE...IT IS FORECAST THAT THE DEPRESSION WILL REACH THE COAST OF MEXICO AS A TROPICAL STORM. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 9 KNOTS... SOUTH OF A PERSISTENT DEEP LAYER MEAN RIDGE. THIS MOTION IS FORECAST TO PERSIST DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. BY THEN...THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE DISSIPATING INLAND OVER MEXICO. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 24/0300Z 19.7N 94.1W 30 KT 12HR VT 24/1200Z 20.2N 95.4W 35 KT 24HR VT 25/0000Z 21.0N 97.0W 40 KT 36HR VT 25/1200Z 22.0N 98.5W 25 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 26/0000Z 23.0N 100.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ ** WTCA42 TJSJ 240254 *** TCPSP2 BOLETIN DEPRESION TROPICAL NUMERO SIETE ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 2 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 10 PM CDT SABADO 23 DE JULIO DE 2005 ...DEPRESION TROPICAL TORNANDOSE MEJOR ORGANIZADO GRADUALMENTE... A LAS 10 PM CDT...0300Z...EL GOBIERNO DE MEXICO HA EXTENDIDO EL AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LA COSTA ESTE DE MEXICO HACIA EL NORTE HASTA LA CRUZ. ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DESDE PALMA SOLA HASTA LA CRUZ. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO EN LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA EN SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE TIERRA...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DE METEOROLOGIA. A LAS 10 PM CDT...0300Z...EL CENTRO POBREMENTE DEFINIDO DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL SIETE FUE LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 19.7 NORTE...LONGITUD 94.1 OESTE O COMO A 140 MILLAS... 225 KM...AL ESTE NORESTE DE VERACRUZ MEXICO Y COMO A 230 MILLAS...375 KM...AL ESTE SURESTE DE TUXPAN MEXICO. LA DEPRESION SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL CONTINUE HASTA EL DOMINGO. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA QUE LA DEPRESION SE CONVIERTA EN TORMENTA TROPICAL DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS ANTES DE QUE TOQUE TIERRA EN MEXICO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1009 MILIBARAS...29.80 PULGADAS. SON POSIBLES ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 3 A 5 PULGADAS...CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE HASTA 8 PULGADAS SOBRE TERRENOS MONTANOSOS A TRAVES DEL ESTE DE MEXICO. ESTAS LLUVIAS PUDIERAN CAUSAR INUNDACIONES REPENTINAS Y Y DESLIZAMIENTOS DE LODO QUE PUDIERAN PONER EN RIESGO SUS VIDAS...ESPECIALMENTE EN LAS AREAS PREVIAMENTE AFECTADAS POR EL HURACAN EMILY. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 10 PM CDT...19.7 NORTE... 94.1 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA...EL OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 10 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 35 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1009 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 1 AM CDT SEGUIDA POR UNA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 4 AM CDT. PRONOSTICADOR AVILA $$ ** WTNT41 KNHC 240255 *** TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT SAT JUL 23 2005 LATEST MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS THAT THE LOW- AND MID-LEVEL CENTERS OF FRANKLIN ARE BECOMING DETACHED. THERE IS A RING OF DEEP CONVECTION ...RESEMBLING AN EYEWALL...MARKING A WELL DEFINED MIDDLE LEVEL CIRCULATION. HOWEVER...THE CLOUD LINES SHOW A SURFACE CENTER DISPLACED TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS CENTER LOCATION IS CONSISTENT WITH THE LATEST RECON FIX. THIS DECOUPLING HAS BEEN THE SCENARIO FORECAST BY GLOBAL MODELS...MAINLY BY THE GFS... DURING THE PAST DAY OR SO. THE CLOUD PATTERN ON SATELLITE HAS NOT IMPROVED AND IN FACT...IT LOOKS LESS ORGANIZED THAN EARLIER TODAY...AND THE MINIMUM PRESSURE IS ABOUT 1003 MB. INITIAL INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED TO 55 KNOTS. THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FRANKLIN IS BRINGING STRONG SHEAR...SO ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS NO LONGER INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. ONLY THE NOGAPS MODEL SHOWS THAT THE UPPER-TROUGH WILL BYPASS FRANKLIN QUICKLY...LEAVING WEAKER SHEAR AND A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. FRANKLIN IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WESTERLIES AND IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST ABOUT 10 KNOTS. FRANKLIN COULD ACCELERATE A LITTLE DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AS THE STEERING FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. THEREAFTER...THE STEERING CURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND FRANKLIN IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. AT LONGER RANGES...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL APPROACH FRANKLIN AND THE CYCLONE SHOULD THEN INCREASE ITS FORWARD SPEED AGAIN. ALL THESE SMALL CHANGES ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR AS THE CYCLONE MOVES AWAY FROM THE UNITED STATES. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 24/0300Z 30.3N 72.9W 55 KT 12HR VT 24/1200Z 30.9N 71.3W 55 KT 24HR VT 25/0000Z 31.5N 69.5W 55 KT 36HR VT 25/1200Z 32.0N 68.0W 55 KT 48HR VT 26/0000Z 32.5N 67.0W 50 KT 72HR VT 27/0000Z 33.5N 64.0W 45 KT 96HR VT 28/0000Z 35.0N 61.0W 40 KT 120HR VT 29/0000Z 38.5N 56.0W 30 KT $$ ** WTJP31 RJTD 240300 *** WARNING 240300. WARNING VALID 250300. TYPHOON WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0507 BANYAN (0507) 980 HPA AT 22.7N 137.6E NORTHEAST OF PARECE VERA MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 15 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 60 MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 450 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 350 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 250300UTC AT 26.6N 135.6E WITH 90 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 965 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 240300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0507 BANYAN (0507) ANALYSIS PSTN 240300UTC 22.7N 137.6E FAIR MOVE NNE 15KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 50KT 100NM SOUTHEAST 60NM NORTHWEST 30KT 450NM EAST 350NM WEST FORECAST 24HF 250300UTC 26.6N 135.6E 90NM 70% MOVE NNW 10KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 065KT 45HF 260000UTC 29.8N 134.9E 150NM 70% MOVE N 11KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 075KT 69HF 270000UTC 35.9N 136.7E 290NM 70% MOVE NNE 15KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 065KT = ** WTPQ21 RJTD 240300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0506 NALGAE (0506) ANALYSIS PSTN 240300UTC 34.8N 162.9E FAIR MOVE NNE 12KT PRES 996HPA MXWD 035KT 30KT 250NM NORTHEAST 170NM SOUTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 250300UTC 38.4N 166.0E 100NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTNT80 EGRR 240505 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 24.07.2005 TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN ANALYSED POSITION : 29.7N 73.5W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 24.07.2005 29.7N 73.5W MODERATE 12UTC 24.07.2005 29.9N 71.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 25.07.2005 30.2N 70.3W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 25.07.2005 30.4N 69.3W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 26.07.2005 31.1N 68.8W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 26.07.2005 32.0N 68.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 27.07.2005 33.2N 67.8W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 27.07.2005 35.1N 67.5W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 28.07.2005 36.9N 65.0W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 28.07.2005 EXTRA-TROPICAL TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN ANALYSED POSITION : 19.5N 94.1W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL072005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 24.07.2005 19.5N 94.1W WEAK 12UTC 24.07.2005 20.8N 95.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 25.07.2005 21.7N 97.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 25.07.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 240505 ** WTNT42 KNHC 240548 *** TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM GERT SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM EDT SUN JUL 24 2005 THE PURPOSE OF THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS TO UPGRADE TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN TO A TROPICAL STORM...AND PROVIDE A COMPLETE ADVISORY PACKAGE INDICATING SUCH. DATA FROM THE STEPPED-FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER...SFMR...ON BOARD A NOAA P-3 RESEARCH AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS STRENGTHENED AND BECOME TROPICAL STORM GERT. WITHIN THE PAST HOUR...THE SFMR REPORTED SURFACE WINDS OF 36 KT. THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TRACK OR INTENSITY OF GERT. THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY UPDATES THE INITIAL INTENSITY AND THE 34 KT WIND RADII. GERT IS THE EARLIEST 7TH NAMED STORM ON RECORD...BREAKING THE OLD RECORD OF AUGUST 7TH. THE MEAN DATE OF FORMATION BEING SEPTEMBER 23RD. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 24/0600Z 19.8N 94.7W 35 KT 12HR VT 24/1200Z 20.2N 95.4W 35 KT 24HR VT 25/0000Z 21.0N 97.0W 40 KT 36HR VT 25/1200Z 22.0N 98.5W 25 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 26/0000Z 23.0N 100.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ ** WTNT22 KNHC 240549 *** TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM GERT SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072005 0600Z SUN JUL 24 2005 A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM PALMA SOLA TO LA CRUZ. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 94.7W AT 24/0600Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 75NE 0SE 0SW 75NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 0SE 0SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 94.7W AT 24/0600Z AT 24/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 93.7W FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 20.2N 95.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 40SE 40SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 21.0N 97.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 40SE 40SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 22.0N 98.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 23.0N 100.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.8N 94.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0900Z FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT32 KNHC 240552 *** TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM GERT SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1 AM CDT SUN JUL 24 2005 ...SEVENTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON FORMS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE... REPORTS FROM A NOAA RESEARCH AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN HAS STRENGTHENED AND BECOME A TROPICAL STORM. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM PALMA SOLA TO LA CRUZ. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 1 AM CDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GERT WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.8 NORTH... LONGITUDE 94.7 WEST OR ABOUT 105 MILES... 170 KM... EAST-NORTHEAST OF VERACRUZ MEXICO AND ABOUT 195 MILES... 310 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF TUXPAN MEXICO. GERT IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH ...17 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF GERT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES ...140 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 8 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN MEXICO. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS PREVIOUSLY AFFECTED BY HURRICANE EMILY. REPEATING THE 1 AM CDT POSITION...19.8 N... 94.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 4 AM CDT. FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT72 KNHC 240552 *** SPFAT2 TROPICAL STORM GERT SPECIAL PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1 AM CDT SUN JUL 24 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 1 AM CDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF GERT WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.7 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 7PM CDT TUE JUL 26 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 21.0N 97.0W 42 1 X X 43 MMTX 210N 974W 38 X X X 38 22.0N 98.5W 12 15 1 X 28 MMVR 192N 961W 40 X X X 40 23.0N 100.0W X 18 4 X 22 BROWNSVILLE TX X 1 5 X 6 MMSO 238N 982W X 15 4 X 19 GULF 25N 96W X 2 4 X 6 MMTM 222N 979W 15 12 1 X 28 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 7PM SUN FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 7PM SUN TO 7AM MON C FROM 7AM MON TO 7PM MON D FROM 7PM MON TO 7PM TUE E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 7PM TUE X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$