** WTNT80 EGRR 231758 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 23.07.2005 TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN ANALYSED POSITION : 28.9N 75.4W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 23.07.2005 28.9N 75.4W MODERATE 00UTC 24.07.2005 29.6N 74.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 24.07.2005 30.2N 72.5W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 25.07.2005 30.4N 72.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 25.07.2005 31.0N 71.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 26.07.2005 31.5N 70.0W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 26.07.2005 32.2N 69.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 27.07.2005 33.7N 69.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 27.07.2005 35.3N 66.5W MODERATE WEAKENING STEADILY 00UTC 28.07.2005 37.2N 62.9W BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 12 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+12 : 9.6N 22.5W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 24.07.2005 9.6N 22.5W WEAK 12UTC 24.07.2005 9.9N 24.6W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 25.07.2005 11.9N 27.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 25.07.2005 11.8N 32.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 26.07.2005 11.8N 35.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 26.07.2005 10.5N 39.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 27.07.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 231758 ** WTJP21 RJTD 231800 *** WARNING 231800. WARNING VALID 241800. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0507 BANYAN (0507) UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 980 HPA AT 20.6N 136.9E EAST OF PARECE VERA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST SLOWLY. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 450 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 300 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 241800UTC AT 24.3N 135.5E WITH 90 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 965 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 251800UTC AT 28.7N 133.6E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 955 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION FOR 261800UTC AT 33.5N 134.6E WITH 220 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 955 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 231800 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0507 BANYAN (0507) UPGRADED FROM TS ANALYSIS PSTN 231800UTC 20.6N 136.9E FAIR MOVE NNW SLOWLY PRES 980HPA MXWD 050KT 30KT 450NM SOUTHEAST 300NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 241800UTC 24.3N 135.5E 90NM 70% MOVE NNW 09KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 065KT 48HF 251800UTC 28.7N 133.6E 150NM 70% MOVE NNW 11KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 075KT 72HF 261800UTC 33.5N 134.6E 220NM 70% MOVE N 12KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 075KT = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 231800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS BANYAN 0507 (0507) INITIAL TIME 231800 UTC 00HR 20.5N 136.9E 980HPA 30M/S 30KTS 500KM 50KTS 150KM P12HR NNW 15KM/H P+24HR 24.0N 135.4E 950HPA 45M/S P+48HR 28.5N 134.0E 940HPA 50M/S P+72HR 33.2N 134.8E 940HPA 50M/S= ** WTJP22 RJTD 231800 *** WARNING 231800. WARNING VALID 241800. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. GALE WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0506 NALGAE (0506) 992 HPA AT 33.2N 161.6E FAR OFF EAST OF JAPAN MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 09 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 220 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 140 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 241800UTC AT 35.4N 165.7E WITH 100 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 996 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 251800UTC AT 37.3N 167.4E WITH 160 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 1002 HPA. BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 231800 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0506 NALGAE (0506) ANALYSIS PSTN 231800UTC 33.2N 161.6E FAIR MOVE ENE 09KT PRES 992HPA MXWD 040KT 30KT 220NM NORTHEAST 140NM SOUTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 241800UTC 35.4N 165.7E 100NM 70% MOVE NE 10KT PRES 996HPA MXWD 035KT 48HF 251800UTC 37.3N 167.4E 160NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTNT22 KNHC 232024 *** TCMAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072005 2100Z SAT JUL 23 2005 AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM PALMA SOLA NORTHWARD TO CABO ROJO...AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM NORTH OF CABO ROJO NORTHWARD TO LA CRUZ. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 93.2W AT 23/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1011 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 93.2W AT 23/2100Z AT 23/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 92.9W FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 19.9N 94.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 20.4N 96.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 21.1N 97.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 45NE 45SE 30SW 45NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 21.9N 98.8W...DISSIPATING INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 22.5N 101.0W...REMNANT LOW INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED INLAND REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.4N 93.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0300Z FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT72 KNHC 232025 *** SPFAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 4 PM CDT SAT JUL 23 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE DEPRESSION CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.2 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 1PM CDT TUE JUL 26 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 20.4N 96.0W 47 X X X 47 MMFR 185N 926W 99 X X X 99 21.1N 97.3W 20 7 1 X 28 PORT O CONNOR TX X X X 3 3 21.9N 98.8W 1 18 3 2 24 CORPUSCHRISTI TX X X X 5 5 MMSO 238N 982W X 6 9 3 18 BROWNSVILLE TX X X 3 7 10 MMTM 222N 979W 2 18 3 1 24 GULF 28N 95W X X X 2 2 MMTX 210N 974W 20 7 1 X 28 GULF 27N 96W X X X 4 4 MMVR 192N 961W 35 X X X 35 GULF 25N 96W X 1 4 5 10 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 1PM SUN FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 1PM SUN TO 1AM MON C FROM 1AM MON TO 1PM MON D FROM 1PM MON TO 1PM TUE E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 1PM TUE X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT32 KNHC 232031 *** TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 4 PM CDT SAT JUL 23 2005 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN FORMS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND WATCH ISSUED FOR EASTERN MEXICO... AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM PALMA SOLA NORTHWARD TO CABO ROJO...AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM NORTH OF CABO ROJO NORTHWARD TO LA CRUZ. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE 93.2 WEST OR ABOUT 180 MILES... 290 KM... WEST OF CAMPECHE MEXICO AND ABOUT 295 MILES... 475 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF TUXPAN MEXICO. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH ... 9 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION...AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED...IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH... 45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BY EARLY SUNDAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1011 MB...29.85 INCHES. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 8 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN MEXICO. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS PREVIOUSLY AFFECTED BY HURRICANE EMILY. REPEATING THE 4 PM CDT POSITION...19.4 N... 93.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 30 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 7 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 10 PM CDT. FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT21 KNHC 232031 *** TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062005 2100Z SAT JUL 23 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.9N 74.3W AT 23/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 60 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 25NE 50SE 35SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 70SE 60SW 20NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 80NE 110SE 60SW 20NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.9N 74.3W AT 23/2100Z AT 23/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.7N 74.7W FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 30.4N 73.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 15SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 25NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 60SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 30.8N 71.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 15SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 25NE 50SE 10SW 10NW. 34 KT... 60NE 75SE 60SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 31.2N 69.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 40SE 10SW 10NW. 34 KT... 60NE 75SE 45SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 31.4N 68.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 75SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 32.1N 65.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 75SE 30SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 33.5N 62.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 35.0N 59.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.9N 74.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0300Z FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT71 KNHC 232032 *** SPFAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT SAT JUL 23 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF FRANKLIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.3 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2PM EDT TUE JUL 26 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 30.8N 71.5W 30 2 X X 32 31.4N 68.0W X 12 6 2 20 31.2N 69.6W 4 19 1 1 25 BERMUDA X X 6 7 13 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM SUN FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2PM SUN TO 2AM MON C FROM 2AM MON TO 2PM MON D FROM 2PM MON TO 2PM TUE E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM TUE X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT31 KNHC 232037 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT SAT JUL 23 2005 ...FRANKLIN MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC... AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.9 NORTH... LONGITUDE 74.3 WEST OR ABOUT 295 MILES... 475 KM... NORTHEAST OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND AND ABOUT 585 MILES... 945 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA. FRANKLIN IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR ...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WHILE SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...FRANKLIN COULD STILL BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TONIGHT OR ON SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES ...130 KM...MAINLY EAST THROUGH SOUTH OF THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES. REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...29.9 N... 74.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM EDT. FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTCA42 TJSJ 232049 *** TCPSP2 BOLETIN DEPRESION TROPICAL BRET ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 4 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 4 PM CDT SABADO 23 DE JULIO DE 2005 ...DEPRESION TROPICAL NUMERO SIETE SE FORMA EN LA BAHIA DE CAMPECHE......AVISO Y VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL EMITIDA PARA EL ESTE DE MEXICO... A LAS 4 PM CDT...2100 UTC...EL GOBIERNO DE MEXICO HA EMITIDO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LA COSTA ESTE DE MEXICO DESDE PALMA SOLA AL NORTE HASTA CABO ROJO...Y UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LA COSTA NORESTE DE MEXICO DESDE EL NORTE DE CABO ROJO AL NORTE HASTA LA CRUZ. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO EN LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SON POSIBLES CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA EN LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA EN SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE TIERRA...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DE METEOROLOGIA. A LAS 4 AM CDT...2100Z...EL CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL SIETE FUE LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 19.4 NORTE...LONGITUD 93.2 OESTE O COMO A 180 MILLAS... 290 KM...AL OESTE DE CAMPECHE MEXICO. Y COMO A 295 MILLAS...475 KM...AL ESTE SURESTE DE TUXPAN MEXICO. LA DEPRESION SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 6 MPH...9 KM/HR...Y SE ESPERA ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL...A UNA VELOCIDAD UN POCO MAS RAPIDA...POR LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA UN FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE ALS PROXIMAS 24 HORAD...Y LA DEPRESION PODRIA CONVERTIRSE EN TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA EL DOMINGO TEMPRANO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 10011 MILIBARAS...29.85 PULGADAS. SON POSIBLES ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 2 A 4 PULGADAS...CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE HASTA 8 PULGADAS SOBRE TERRENOS MONTANOSOS A TRAVES DEL ESTE DE MEXICO. ESTAS LLUVIAS PUDIERAN CAUSAR INUNDACIONES REPENTINAS Y Y DESLIZAMIENTOS DE LODO QUE PUDIERAN PONER EN RIESGO SUS VIDAS...ESPECIALMENTE EN LAS AREAS PREVIAMENTE AFECTADAS POR EL HURACAN EMILY. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 4 PM CDT...19.4 NORTE... 93.2 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA...EL OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 6 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 30 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1011 MB. UNA ADVERTENCIA IMTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 7 PM CDT SEGUIDA POR LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 10 PM CDT. PRONOSTICADOR STEWART $$ ** WTCA42 TJSJ 232050 *** TCPSP2 BOLETIN DEPRESION TROPICAL BRET ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 2 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 4 PM CDT SABADO 23 DE JULIO DE 2005 ...DEPRESION TROPICAL NUMERO SIETE SE FORMA EN LA BAHIA DE CAMPECHE......AVISO Y VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL EMITIDA PARA EL ESTE DE MEXICO... A LAS 4 PM CDT...2100 UTC...EL GOBIERNO DE MEXICO HA EMITIDO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LA COSTA ESTE DE MEXICO DESDE PALMA SOLA AL NORTE HASTA CABO ROJO...Y UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LA COSTA NORESTE DE MEXICO DESDE EL NORTE DE CABO ROJO AL NORTE HASTA LA CRUZ. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO EN LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SON POSIBLES CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA EN LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA EN SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE TIERRA...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DE METEOROLOGIA. A LAS 4 AM CDT...2100Z...EL CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL SIETE FUE LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 19.4 NORTE...LONGITUD 93.2 OESTE O COMO A 180 MILLAS... 290 KM...AL OESTE DE CAMPECHE MEXICO. Y COMO A 295 MILLAS...475 KM...AL ESTE SURESTE DE TUXPAN MEXICO. LA DEPRESION SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 6 MPH...9 KM/HR...Y SE ESPERA ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL...A UNA VELOCIDAD UN POCO MAS RAPIDA...POR LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA UN FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE ALS PROXIMAS 24 HORAD...Y LA DEPRESION PODRIA CONVERTIRSE EN TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA EL DOMINGO TEMPRANO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 10011 MILIBARAS...29.85 PULGADAS. SON POSIBLES ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 2 A 4 PULGADAS...CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE HASTA 8 PULGADAS SOBRE TERRENOS MONTANOSOS A TRAVES DEL ESTE DE MEXICO. ESTAS LLUVIAS PUDIERAN CAUSAR INUNDACIONES REPENTINAS Y Y DESLIZAMIENTOS DE LODO QUE PUDIERAN PONER EN RIESGO SUS VIDAS...ESPECIALMENTE EN LAS AREAS PREVIAMENTE AFECTADAS POR EL HURACAN EMILY. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 4 PM CDT...19.4 NORTE... 93.2 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA...EL OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 6 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 30 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1011 MB. UNA ADVERTENCIA IMTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 7 PM CDT SEGUIDA POR LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 10 PM CDT. PRONOSTICADOR STEWART $$ ** WTNT42 KNHC 232053 *** TCDAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT SAT JUL 23 2005 SATELLITE IMAGERY...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...AND DROPSONDE DATA FROM A NOAA RESEARCH AIRCRAFT INDICATE THE LARGE DISTURBANCE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE HAS DEVELOPED INTO TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN. DURING THE PAST HALF-HOUR...NOAA BUOY 42055 REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 23 KT ABOUT 150 NMI NORTH OF THE CENTER...WHILE A DROPSONDE INSTRUMENT JUST NORTH OF MERIDA REPORTED A SURFACE WIND NEAR 30 KT. WHILE THIS LATTER REPORT WAS WITHIN THE OUTFLOW OF A CLUSTER OF LAND-BASED THUNDERSTORMS...OTHER NEARBY DROPSONDE REPORTS INDICATE WINDS OF 30-35 KT AT 925-850 MB. THIS WIND DATA SUPPORTS AT LEAST 25 KT AS AN INITIAL INTENSITY. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS AN UNCERTAIN 285/05. THE INNER-CORE WIND FIELD AND CIRCULATION ARE RATHER BROAD AND ILL-DEFINED...SO PINPOINTING AN EXACT CENTER IS DIFFICULT AT BEST. HOWEVER...12Z UPPER-AIR DATA INDICATE THE LARGE-SCALE DEEP-LAYER ANTICYCLONE IS SITUATED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING EAST-WEST FROM CALIFORNIA TO THE CAROLINAS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN THE DEPRESSION MOVING IN A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST OR WESTWARD MOTION...IGNORING THE WIGGLES AND WOBBLES THAT MAY OCCUR AS CONVECTION DEVELOPS NEAR THE CENTER...UNTIL LANDFALL OCCURS ALONG THE EAST COAST OF MEXICO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO NHC MODEL CONSENSUS UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS GOOD AND THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LOW...AND SSTS ARE QUITE WARM...AROUND 29-30C. THIS WOULD NORMALLY FAVOR SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR. HOWEVER...THE DEPRESSION WILL ONLY HAVE ABOUT 36 HOURS OVER WATER BEFORE IT MOVES INLAND. THEREFORE...ONLY MODEST STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST. HOWEVER...IF THE INITIAL INTENSITY TURNS OUT TO BE TOO LOW AND/OR THE CYCLONE MOVES A LITTLE SLOWER THAN FORECAST...THEN A STRONGER TROPICAL STORM COULD MAKE LANDFALL. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 23/2100Z 19.4N 93.2W 25 KT 12HR VT 24/0600Z 19.9N 94.7W 30 KT 24HR VT 24/1800Z 20.4N 96.0W 35 KT 36HR VT 25/0600Z 21.1N 97.3W 45 KT 48HR VT 25/1800Z 21.9N 98.8W 30 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND 72HR VT 26/1800Z 22.5N 101.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW INLAND 96HR VT 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED INLAND $$ ** WTPN32 PGTW 232100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 07W (BANYAN) WARNING NR 010 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 231800Z --- NEAR 20.5N 136.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 345 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 20.5N 136.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 21.7N 136.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 036 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 122 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 107 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 23.1N 135.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 031 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 057 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 052 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 053 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 137 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 128 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 24.5N 135.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 037 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 037 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 036 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 037 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 061 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 062 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 143 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 131 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 134 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 25.9N 134.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 042 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 041 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 041 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 041 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 138 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 261800Z --- 28.1N 133.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 042 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 042 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 041 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 041 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 071 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 071 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 147 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 147 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 16 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 271800Z --- 33.5N 137.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 20 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 281800Z --- 39.1N 144.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 232100Z POSITION NEAR 20.8N 136.8E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 07W (BANYAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 345 NM SOUTHWEST OF IWO JIMA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE STORM HAS SLOWED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS IT IS SITUATED IN A COL BETWEEN RIDGES TO THE EAST AND NORTHWEST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231800Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240300Z, 240900Z, 241500Z AND 242100Z.// ** WTCA41 TJSJ 232057 *** TCPSP1 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL FRANKLIN ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 10 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT SABADO 23 DE JULIO DE 2005 ...FRANKLIN MOVIENDOSE HACIA EL ESTE NORESTE SOBRE EL ATLANTICO... A LAS 5 PM EDT...2100Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL FRANKLIN ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 29.9 NORTE...LONGITUD 74.3 OESTE O COMO A 295 MILLAS...475 KM...AL NORESTE DE LA ISLA GREAT ABACO Y COMO A 585 MILLAS...945 KM...AL OESTE SUROESTE DE BERMUDA. FRANKLIN SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL ESTE NORESTE A CERCA DE 9 MPH... 15 KM/HR. SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO CONTINUE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 70 MPH... 110 KM/HR CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. AUNQUE PUEDIERAN EXISTIR ALGUNAS FLUCTUACIONES EN FUERZA DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS...FRANKLIN PUDIERA SER UN HURACAN MAS TARDE ESTA NOCHE O EL DOMINGO. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 80 MILLAS...130 KM MAYORMENTE DESDE EL ESTE AL SUR DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ES DE 1001 MB...29.56 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION DE LAS 5 PM...29.9 NORTE... 74.3 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...ESTE NORESTE CERCA DE 9 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 70 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1001 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 11 PM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR STEWART $$ ** WTNT41 KNHC 232107 *** TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT SAT JUL 23 2005 FRANKLIN HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY SINCE THE LAST RECON REPORT AROUND 17Z. AN 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 63 KT WAS REPORTED ABOUT 50 NMI SOUTH OF THE CENTER AT 1543Z...AND SUBSEQUENT DROPSONDE WIND PROFLIES ELSEWHERE SUGGEST THAT THE STANDARD 80 PERCENT REDUCTION FACTOR MAY BE TOO HIGH AND THAT USING 100 PERCENT MAY BE MORE REPRESENTATIVE. GIVEN THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAD NOT FALLEN BELOW 1000 MB ALL DAY...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE MAINTAINED AT 60 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. WIND RADII WERE EXPANDED TO THE SOUTHEAST BASED ON THE RECON WIND AND DROPSONDE DATA. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 060/08. FRANKLIN HAS BEEN MOVING STEADILY TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST-NORTHEAST FOR THE PAST 12 HOURS OR SO AS THE MID-LEVEL FLOW TO THE WEST OF THE CYCLONE HAS BECOME WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTERLY. THE NEW 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE CREATES SOMETHING OF A QUANDARY WITH THE TRACK FORECAST. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST IS FORECAST BY ALL THE MODELS TO LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST OF FRANKLIN AND LEAVE AT LEAST A WELL-DEFINED MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION BEHIND BY 36-48 HOURS. AFTER THAT...THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY AND THEN DRIFT SOUTH OR SOUTHWESTWARD BY 96 HOURS... WHILE THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION MOVES NORTHEASTWARD. IF FRANKLIN REMAINS INTACT AT 72 HOURS...THEN THE SOUTHWARD MOTION IS QUITE POSSIBLE GIVEN THAT ALL THE MODELS INDICATE THE MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BECOME NORTHWESTERLY AND THEN NORTHERLY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLOWER AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST... AND A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE GUNS AND GUNA MODELS. FRANKLIN COULD STILL BECOME A 65-KT HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE INCREASING NORTHERLY UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR STARTS TO AFFECT THE CYCLONE. EVEN IF THE CYCLONE DOES TURN SOUTHWARD...THE UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION TO OCCUR UNTIL AFTER 72 HOURS WHEN THE 200 MB FLOW IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND A SMALL ANTICYCLONE MOVES ACROSS THE SYSTEM. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 23/2100Z 29.9N 74.3W 60 KT 12HR VT 24/0600Z 30.4N 73.0W 65 KT 24HR VT 24/1800Z 30.8N 71.5W 65 KT 36HR VT 25/0600Z 31.2N 69.6W 60 KT 48HR VT 25/1800Z 31.4N 68.0W 55 KT 72HR VT 26/1800Z 32.1N 65.3W 50 KT 96HR VT 27/1800Z 33.5N 62.5W 45 KT 120HR VT 28/1800Z 35.0N 59.5W 40 KT $$ ** WTPQ20 RJTD 232100 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0507 BANYAN (0507) ANALYSIS PSTN 232100UTC 20.7N 136.9E FAIR MOVE NNW SLOWLY PRES 980HPA MXWD 050KT 30KT 450NM SOUTHEAST 300NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 242100UTC 24.6N 135.3E 90NM 70% MOVE NNW 10KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 065KT 45HF 251800UTC 28.7N 133.6E 150NM 70% MOVE NNW 11KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 075KT 69HF 261800UTC 33.5N 134.6E 220NM 70% MOVE N 12KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 075KT = ** WTJP31 RJTD 232100 *** WARNING 232100. WARNING VALID 242100. TYPHOON WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0507 BANYAN (0507) 980 HPA AT 20.7N 136.9E EAST OF PARECE VERA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST SLOWLY. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 450 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 300 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 242100UTC AT 24.6N 135.3E WITH 90 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 965 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 232100 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0506 NALGAE (0506) ANALYSIS PSTN 232100UTC 33.7N 162.3E FAIR MOVE NE 13KT PRES 992HPA MXWD 040KT 30KT 250NM NORTHEAST 170NM SOUTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 242100UTC 36.2N 166.1E 100NM 70% MOVE NE 09KT PRES 996HPA MXWD 035KT 45HF 251800UTC 37.3N 167.4E 160NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTNT32 KNHC 232343 *** TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 7 PM CDT SAT JUL 23 2005 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED...EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINS TO EASTERN MEXICO... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM PALMA SOLA NORTHWARD TO CABO ROJO...AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM NORTH OF CABO ROJO NORTHWARD TO LA CRUZ. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 7 PM CDT...0000Z...THE POORLY DEFINED CENTER OF CIRCULATION OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.8 WEST OR ABOUT 220 MILES...350 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF TUXPAN MEXICO. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH ...15 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH... 45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS MAINLY IN SQUALLS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON SUNDAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1011 MB...29.85 INCHES. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 8 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN MEXICO. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS PREVIOUSLY AFFECTED BY HURRICANE EMILY. REPEATING THE 7 PM CDT POSITION...19.5 N... 93.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 10 PM CDT. FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTCA42 TJSJ 232355 *** TCPSP2 BOLETIN DEPRESION TROPICAL NUMERO SIETE ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 1A NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 7 PM CDT SABADO 23 DE JULIO DE 2005 ...DEPRESION TROPICAL CONTINUA POCO ORGANIZADA...SE ESPERA QUE TRAIGA LLUVIA FUERTE AL ESTE DE MEXICO... PERMANECE EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LA COSTA ESTE DE MEXICO DESDE PALMA SOLA AL NORTE HASTA CABO ROJO...Y UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LA COSTA NORESTE DE MEXICO DESDE EL NORTE DE CABO ROJO AL NORTE HASTA LA CRUZ. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO EN LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SON POSIBLES CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA EN LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA EN SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE TIERRA...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DE METEOROLOGIA. A LAS 7 PM CDT...0000Z...EL CENTRO POBREMENTE DEFINIDO DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL SIETE FUE LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 19.5 NORTE...LONGITUD 93.8 OESTE O COMO A 220 MILLAS... 350 KM...AL ESTE SURESTE DE TUXPAN MEXICO. LA DEPRESION SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...Y SE ESPERA ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL...A UNA VELOCIDAD UN POCO MAS RAPIDA...POR LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA UN FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE ALS PROXIMAS 24 HORAD...Y LA DEPRESION PODRIA CONVERTIRSE EN TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA EL DOMINGO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1011 MILIBARAS...29.85 PULGADAS. SON POSIBLES ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 2 A 4 PULGADAS...CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE HASTA 8 PULGADAS SOBRE TERRENOS MONTANOSOS A TRAVES DEL ESTE DE MEXICO. ESTAS LLUVIAS PUDIERAN CAUSAR INUNDACIONES REPENTINAS Y Y DESLIZAMIENTOS DE LODO QUE PUDIERAN PONER EN RIESGO SUS VIDAS...ESPECIALMENTE EN LAS AREAS PREVIAMENTE AFECTADAS POR EL HURACAN EMILY. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 7 PM CDT...19.5 NORTE... 93.8 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA...EL OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 6 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 30 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1011 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 10 PM CDT. PRONOSTICADOR AVILA $$