** WTJP21 RJTD 230600 *** WARNING 230600. WARNING VALID 240600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0507 BANYAN (0507) 985 HPA AT 20.0N 136.9E EAST OF PARECE VERA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 09 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 240 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 240600UTC AT 22.9N 135.1E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 965 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 250600UTC AT 26.2N 132.8E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 955 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 260600UTC AT 30.4N 131.5E WITH 220 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 230600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0507 BANYAN (0507) ANALYSIS PSTN 230600UTC 20.0N 136.9E FAIR MOVE NNW 09KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 045KT 30KT 350NM SOUTHEAST 240NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 240600UTC 22.9N 135.1E 80NM 70% MOVE NNW 10KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 065KT 48HF 250600UTC 26.2N 132.8E 150NM 70% MOVE NNW 08KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 075KT 72HF 260600UTC 30.4N 131.5E 220NM 70% MOVE NNW 08KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 230600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS NALGAE 0506 (0506) INITIAL TIME 230600 UTC 00HR 32.6N 160.1E 998HPA 18M/S 30KTS 250KM P12HR NE 15KM/H P+24HR 34.0N 163.4E 998HPA 18M/S P+48HR 36.1N 166.5E 1000HPA 15M/S= ** WTIN20 DEMS 230650 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS - RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 23-07-2005 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS INTENSE CONVECTIVE CLOUDS OVER BAY OF BENGAL AND ANDAMAN SEA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER NORTH BAY (.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 3029.0 DEG NORTH OVER INDIAN REGION (.) ** WTPQ20 BABJ 230600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS BANYAN 0507 (0507) INITIAL TIME 230600 UTC 00HR 20.2N 136.8E 988HPA 23M/S 30KTS 300KM P12HR NNW 20KM/H P+24HR 23.0N 134.8E 985HPA 25M/S P+48HR 26.0N 132.8E 980HPA 30M/S P+72HR 29.9N 132.4E 970HPA 35M/S= ** WTJP22 RJTD 230600 *** WARNING 230600. WARNING VALID 240600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. GALE WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0506 NALGAE (0506) 992 HPA AT 32.6N 160.0E FAR OFF EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHEAST SLOWLY. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 240600UTC AT 34.4N 164.0E WITH 100 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 250600UTC AT 36.2N 166.9E WITH 160 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 992 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 260600UTC AT 38.0N 168.4E WITH 290 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 996 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 230600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0506 NALGAE (0506) ANALYSIS PSTN 230600UTC 32.6N 160.0E FAIR MOVE NE SLOWLY PRES 992HPA MXWD 040KT 30KT 240NM NORTHEAST 150NM SOUTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 240600UTC 34.4N 164.0E 100NM 70% MOVE ENE 09KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT 48HF 250600UTC 36.2N 166.9E 160NM 70% MOVE NE 07KT PRES 992HPA MXWD 040KT 72HF 260600UTC 38.0N 168.4E 290NM 70% MOVE NNE SLOWLY PRES 996HPA MXWD 035KT = ** WTJP22 RJTD 230600 *** WARNING 230600. WARNING VALID 240600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. GALE WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0506 NALGAE (0506) 992 HPA AT 32.6N 160.0E FAR OFF EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHEAST SLOWLY. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 240600UTC AT 34.4N 164.0E WITH 100 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 250600UTC AT 36.2N 166.9E WITH 160 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 992 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 260600UTC AT 38.0N 168.4E WITH 290 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 996 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTKO20 RKSL 230600 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 4 NAME TS 0506 NALGAE ANALYSIS POSITION 230600UTC 32.5N 160.1E MOVEMENT NNE 5KT PRES/VMAX 990HPA 45KT FORECAST 12HR POSITION 231800UTC 33.4N 161.9E WITHIN 45NM PRES/VMAX 990HPA 45KT 24HR POSITION 240600UTC 34.7N 163.8E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 995HPA 37KT 48HR POSITION 250600UTC 36.3N 166.1E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 998HPA 33KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPQ30 RJTD 230600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 5 FOR TS 0507 BANYAN (0507) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 230600 UTC IS FAIR. TS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TS WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TS WILL BE GRADED UP TO STS WITHIN 24 HOURS. TS WILL DEVELOP BECAUSE SPIRAL CLOUD BANDS HAVE BECOME WELL ORGANIZ ED. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 4.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPQ31 RJTD 230600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 8 FOR TS 0506 NALGAE (0506) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 230600 UTC IS FAIR. TS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TS WILL MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TS WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 2.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTNT41 KNHC 230836 *** TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT SAT JUL 23 2005 FRANKLIN...THE STORM...NOT THE FORECASTER...HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED OVERNIGHT. REPORTS FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT A FEW HOURS AGO INDICATE THAT THE WIND FIELD HAS BECOME MORE SYMMETRIC WHILE THE PRESSURE CONTINUED A SLOW BUT STEADY FALL...TO 1001 MB AT 05Z. THE PEAK 850 MB FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS WERE 57 KT IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT...WHICH SUPPORTS A SOLID 45 KT AS THE SURFACE ESTIMATE. THE RECONNAISSANCE FIXES INDICATE THAT FRANKLIN HAS TURNED TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATED TO BE 030/7. THE SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT OF THE CYCLONE IS COMPLICATED...RESULTING IN CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN BOTH THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS. A MID-LATITUDE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS THROUGH THE CAROLINAS IS ABOUT TO MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC. IN THE SHORT TERM...THIS IS EXPECTED TO FORCE FRANKLIN TO TURN TO THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER...THIS TROUGH WILL ALSO BRING CONSIDERABLE VERTICAL SHEAR WITH IT...AND BY 36-48 HOURS...THE CYCLONE WILL FIND ITSELF UNDER AN UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL NORTHERLY OR NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. IN FACT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALREADY IS SHOWING A RESTRICTION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW TO THE NORTH OF FRANKLIN. THE FUTURE TRACK OF FRANKLIN IS VERY MUCH TIED TO HOW IT RESPONDS TO THIS IMPENDING SHEAR...AND THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS HIGHLY DIVERGENT. THE GFS DECOUPLES THE CYCLONE'S LOW AND MID-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS AND RACES A WEAK SYSTEM EAST-NORTHEASTWARD IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE NOGAPS AND UKMET MODELS MAINTAIN A STRONGER...MORE VERTICALLY CONNECTED SYSTEM THAT ALSO MOVES TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST BUT MUCH MORE SLOWLY. THE GFDL HAS A RATHER SURPRISING SOLUTION IN THAT IT IS BOTH RELATIVELY FAST WITH THE EASTWARD MOTION AND YET ALSO FORECASTS FRANKLIN TO ATTAIN AND THEN MAINTAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH FOR ALMOST 72 HOURS. SO WHAT TO DO WITH THIS RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES? SMALL SYSTEMS ARE FREQUENTLY NOT THAT RESISTENT TO SHEAR. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS THEREFORE CONSIDERABLY FASTER THAN THE NOGAPS OR UKMET GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...THE GFS IS ALREADY TOO FAST...SO PERHAPS NONE OF THE INDIVIDUAL DYNAMICAL MODELS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS PARTICULAR FORECAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A PRIMARILY A BLEND OF CONTINUITY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...THE SHALLOW BAM...THE GUNA CONSENSUS...AND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE...AND IS ONLY COINCIDENTALLY CLOSE TO THE GFDL. THE FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED SOMEWHAT SOUTHWARD...AND DOES SHOW A CLOSE APPROACH TO BERMUDA IN 72 HOURS. IT IS WORTH NOTING HOWEVER...THAT SOME OF THE LARGEST TRACK ERRORS OCCUR IN HIGH-SHEAR SCENARIOS SUCH AS THIS ONE. THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION IS WELL EMBEDDED IN A SMALL CIRCULAR AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION...AND EARLIER RECONNAISSANCE DATA SUGGESTED THAT THE CYCLONE WAS GETTING READY TO STRENGTHEN. CONSEQUENTLY...THE SHORT-TERM PROSPECTS FOR INTENSIFICATION ARE GOOD. HOWEVER...THE OPPORTUNITY FOR DEVELOPMENT IN THE LONG RUN APPEARS LIMITED...WITH AN INCREASE IN SHEAR AND A DECREASE IN SSTS SEEMINGLY IN THE CYCLONE'S FUTURE. IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT LITTLE OR NOTHING WILL BE LEFT OF FRANKLIN...THE STORM...NOT THE FORECASTER...IN 2-3 DAYS. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 23/0900Z 29.1N 75.9W 45 KT 12HR VT 23/1800Z 30.0N 74.8W 55 KT 24HR VT 24/0600Z 30.8N 73.0W 60 KT 36HR VT 24/1800Z 31.4N 71.0W 60 KT 48HR VT 25/0600Z 31.8N 69.0W 55 KT 72HR VT 26/0600Z 32.5N 65.0W 50 KT 96HR VT 27/0600Z 35.0N 60.5W 45 KT 120HR VT 28/0600Z 39.0N 56.0W 40 KT $$ ** WTNT21 KNHC 230836 *** TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062005 0900Z SAT JUL 23 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.1N 75.9W AT 23/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 60SE 50SW 20NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 100SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.1N 75.9W AT 23/0900Z AT 23/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.7N 76.1W FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 30.0N 74.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 30.8N 73.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW. 34 KT... 60NE 75SE 60SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 31.4N 71.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW. 34 KT... 60NE 75SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 31.8N 69.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 75SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 32.5N 65.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 75SE 30SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 35.0N 60.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z 39.0N 56.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.1N 75.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/1500Z FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT71 KNHC 230837 *** SPFAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT SAT JUL 23 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF FRANKLIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.9 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2AM EDT TUE JUL 26 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 30.8N 73.0W 38 X X X 38 BERMUDA X X 1 8 9 31.4N 71.0W 5 16 1 1 23 CAPE HATTERAS NC X 1 X 1 2 31.8N 69.0W X 7 7 3 17 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM SUN FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2AM SUN TO 2PM SUN C FROM 2PM SUN TO 2AM MON D FROM 2AM MON TO 2AM TUE E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM TUE X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT31 KNHC 230837 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT SAT JUL 23 2005 ...FRANKLIN MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE BAHAMAS... AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.1 NORTH... LONGITUDE 75.9 WEST OR ABOUT 200 MILES... 325 KM... NORTH-NORTHEAST OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND AND ABOUT 695 MILES...1120 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA. FRANKLIN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH ...13 KM/HR. A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. FRANKLIN HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED OVERNIGHT AND SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES ...110 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES. REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT POSITION...29.1 N... 75.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM EDT. FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTPN32 PGTW 230900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 07W (BANYAN) WARNING NR 008 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 230600Z --- NEAR 19.9N 136.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.9N 136.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 21.5N 136.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 22.8N 135.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 24.1N 134.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 25.6N 133.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z --- 28.9N 133.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 15 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 270600Z --- 33.5N 138.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 17 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 280600Z --- 37.4N 145.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 230900Z POSITION NEAR 20.3N 136.6E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 07W (BANYAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 385 NM SOUTH- WEST OF IWO JIMA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230600Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 231500Z, 232100Z, 240300Z AND 240900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 06W (NALGAE) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX- HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTJP31 RJTD 230900 *** WARNING 230900. WARNING VALID 240900. TYPHOON WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0507 BANYAN (0507) 985 HPA AT 20.2N 136.9E EAST OF PARECE VERA MOVING NORTH 08 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 240 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 240900UTC AT 23.0N 135.1E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 965 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 230900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0507 BANYAN (0507) ANALYSIS PSTN 230900UTC 20.2N 136.9E FAIR MOVE N 08KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 045KT 30KT 350NM SOUTHEAST 240NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 240900UTC 23.0N 135.1E 80NM 70% MOVE NNW 10KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 065KT 45HF 250600UTC 26.2N 132.8E 150NM 70% MOVE NNW 08KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 075KT 69HF 260600UTC 30.4N 131.5E 220NM 70% MOVE NNW 08KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT = ** WTPN31 PGTW 230900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 06W (NALGAE) WARNING NR 014 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 230600Z --- NEAR 32.7N 159.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 025 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 32.7N 159.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 33.7N 160.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 35.1N 160.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 36.5N 161.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 230900Z POSITION NEAR 33.0N 159.7E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 06W (NALGAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 890 NM NORTH- NORTHWEST OF WAKE ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230600Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 231500Z, 232100Z, 240300Z AND 240900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 07W (BANYAN) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX- HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPQ21 RJTD 230900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0506 NALGAE (0506) ANALYSIS PSTN 230900UTC 32.6N 160.3E FAIR MOVE E SLOWLY PRES 992HPA MXWD 040KT 30KT 240NM NORTHEAST 150NM SOUTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 240900UTC 34.5N 164.1E 100NM 70% MOVE ENE 09KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT 45HF 250600UTC 36.2N 166.9E 160NM 70% MOVE NE 07KT PRES 992HPA MXWD 040KT 69HF 260600UTC 38.0N 168.4E 290NM 70% MOVE NNE SLOWLY PRES 996HPA MXWD 035KT =