** WTSR20 WSSS 221800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPQ32 PGUM 230025 RRA *** TCPPQ2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM BANYAN ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 8 AM GUAM LST SAT JUL 23 2005 ...TROPICAL STORM BANYAN MOVING NORTH... NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT. AT 7 AM GUAM LST..2100Z..THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BANYAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.7 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 137.6 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 590 MILES NORTHWEST OF GUAM..ROTA..TINIAN AND SAIPAN...AND ABOUT 635 MILES NORTH OF YAP. TROPICAL STORM BANYAN IS MOVING NORTH AT 10 MPH. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH A SLOW TURN TO THE NORTHWEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 45 MPH. TROPICAL STORM BANYAN IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. REPEATING THE 7 AM POSITION...18.7 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE AND 137.6 DEGREES EAST LONGITUDE...MOVING NORTH AT 10 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 45 MPH. THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 2 PM GUAM LST. $$ MIDDLEBROOKE ** WTJP21 RJTD 230000 *** WARNING 230000. WARNING VALID 240000. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. STORM WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0507 BANYAN (0507) 990 HPA AT 19.1N 137.2E SOUTHEAST OF PARECE VERA MOVING NORTHWEST 09 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 240 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 240000UTC AT 22.6N 136.1E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 250000UTC AT 26.1N 133.9E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 960 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 260000UTC AT 29.3N 132.7E WITH 220 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 230000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0507 BANYAN (0507) ANALYSIS PSTN 230000UTC 19.1N 137.2E FAIR MOVE NW 09KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 040KT 30KT 350NM SOUTHEAST 240NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 240000UTC 22.6N 136.1E 80NM 70% MOVE NNW 09KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 060KT 48HF 250000UTC 26.1N 133.9E 150NM 70% MOVE NNW 10KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 070KT 72HF 260000UTC 29.3N 132.7E 220NM 70% MOVE NNW 08KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT = ** WTJP21 RJTD 230000 *** WARNING 230000. WARNING VALID 240000. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. STORM WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0507 BANYAN (0507) 990 HPA AT 19.1N 137.2E SOUTHEAST OF PARECE VERA MOVING NORTHWEST 09 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 240 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 240000UTC AT 22.6N 136.1E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 250000UTC AT 26.1N 133.9E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 960 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 260000UTC AT 29.3N 132.7E WITH 220 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 230000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0507 BANYAN (0507) ANALYSIS PSTN 230000UTC 19.1N 137.2E FAIR MOVE NW 09KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 040KT 30KT 350NM SOUTHEAST 240NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 240000UTC 22.6N 136.1E 80NM 70% MOVE NNW 09KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 060KT 48HF 250000UTC 26.1N 133.9E 150NM 70% MOVE NNW 10KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 070KT 72HF 260000UTC 29.3N 132.7E 220NM 70% MOVE NNW 08KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 230000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS BANYAN 0507 (0507) INITIAL TIME 230000 UTC 00HR 19.3N 137.4E 988HPA 23M/S 30KTS 300KM P12HR NNW 20KM/H P+24HR 22.6N 136.3E 985HPA 25M/S P+48HR 25.9N 134.5E 980HPA 30M/S P+72HR 29.2N 133.6E 970HPA 35M/S= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 230000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS NALGAE 0506 (0506) INITIAL TIME 230000 UTC 00HR 32.2N 159.7E 995HPA 20M/S 30KTS 250KM P12HR NNE 15KM/H P+24HR 34.0N 162.8E 990HPA 20M/S P+48HR 35.5N 166.0E 998HPA 15M/S= ** WTJP22 RJTD 230000 *** WARNING 230000. WARNING VALID 240000. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. GALE WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0506 NALGAE (0506) 992 HPA AT 32.4N 159.7E FAR OFF EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTH 10 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 240000UTC AT 34.5N 165.9E WITH 100 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 250000UTC AT 36.4N 169.2E WITH 160 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 992 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 260000UTC AT 37.0N 169.8E WITH 290 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 996 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 230000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0506 NALGAE (0506) ANALYSIS PSTN 230000UTC 32.4N 159.7E FAIR MOVE N 10KT PRES 992HPA MXWD 040KT 30KT 240NM NORTHEAST 150NM SOUTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 240000UTC 34.5N 165.9E 100NM 70% MOVE ENE 13KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT 48HF 250000UTC 36.4N 169.2E 160NM 70% MOVE NE 08KT PRES 992HPA MXWD 040KT 72HF 260000UTC 37.0N 169.8E 290NM 70% MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 996HPA MXWD 035KT = ** WTPQ30 RJTD 230000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 4 FOR TS 0507 BANYAN (0507) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 230000 UTC IS FAIR. TS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TS WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TS WILL BE GRADED UP TO STS WITHIN 24 HOURS. TS WILL DEVELOP BECAUSE SPIRAL CLOUD BANDS HAVE BECOME WELL ORGANIZ ED. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 3.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTKO20 RKSL 230000 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 3 NAME TS 0507 BANYAN ANALYSIS POSITION 230000UTC 19.1N 137.2E MOVEMENT NW 9KT PRES/VMAX 990HPA 41KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 240000UTC 22.4N 136.0E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 975HPA 64KT 48HR POSITION 250000UTC 26.0N 134.3E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 965HPA 72KT 72HR POSITION 260000UTC 29.2N 133.4E WITHIN 215NM PRES/VMAX 960HPA 76KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPQ31 RJTD 230000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 7 FOR TS 0506 NALGAE (0506) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 230000 UTC IS FAIR. TS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN DECELERAT E. TS WILL MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST FI-NUMBER WILL BE 2.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPN31 PGTW 230300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 06W (NALGAE) WARNING NR 013 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 230000Z --- NEAR 32.6N 159.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 010 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT REPEAT POSIT: 32.6N 159.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 231200Z --- 33.8N 159.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z --- 34.9N 160.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z --- 36.3N 161.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 230300Z POSITION NEAR 32.9N 159.4E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 06W (NALGAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 890 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF WAKE ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230000Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 230900Z, 231500Z, 232100Z AND 240300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 07W (BANYAN) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN32 PGTW 230300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 07W (BANYAN) WARNING NR 007 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 230000Z --- NEAR 19.0N 137.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 345 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.0N 137.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 231200Z --- 20.5N 136.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z --- 22.0N 136.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z --- 23.4N 135.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z --- 24.8N 134.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 260000Z --- 28.6N 133.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 12 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 270000Z --- 32.4N 137.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 18 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 280000Z --- 37.2N 143.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 230300Z POSITION NEAR 19.4N 137.3E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 07W (BANYAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 400 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF IWO JIMA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230000Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 230900Z, 231500Z, 232100Z AND 240300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 06W (NALGAE) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTNT21 KNHC 230244 *** TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062005 0300Z SAT JUL 23 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.4N 76.5W AT 23/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 75SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 100SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.4N 76.5W AT 23/0300Z AT 23/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.1N 76.6W FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 29.5N 75.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 75SE 20SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 30.7N 74.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW. 34 KT... 60NE 75SE 30SW 15NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 31.5N 72.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 10NW. 34 KT... 60NE 75SE 40SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 32.2N 69.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 10NW. 34 KT... 60NE 75SE 60SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 33.5N 65.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 10NW. 34 KT... 60NE 75SE 60SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 35.5N 60.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 38.0N 55.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.4N 76.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0900Z FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT31 KNHC 230246 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT FRI JUL 22 2005 ...FRANKLIN CONTINUES MOVING NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THE BAHAMAS... AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE 76.5 WEST OR ABOUT 145 MILES... 230 KM... NORTH-NORTHEAST OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. FRANKLIN IS MOVING JUST EAST OF DUE NORTH NEAR 8 MPH ...13 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. DATA FROM THE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES... 140 KM... MAINLY TO THE EAST FROM THE CENTER. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES. REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...28.4 N... 76.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM EDT. FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT71 KNHC 230246 *** SPFAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT FRI JUL 22 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF FRANKLIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.5 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8PM EDT MON JUL 25 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 30.7N 74.1W 31 1 X X 32 MOREHEAD CITY NC X 1 1 X 2 31.5N 72.2W 2 17 3 1 23 CAPE HATTERAS NC X 2 1 1 4 32.2N 69.9W X 2 12 4 18 NANTUCKET MA X X X 2 2 BERMUDA X X X 9 9 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM SAT FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8PM SAT TO 8AM SUN C FROM 8AM SUN TO 8PM SUN D FROM 8PM SUN TO 8PM MON E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM MON X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTCA41 TJSJ 230255 *** TCPSP1 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL FRANKLIN ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 6 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT VIERNES 22 DE JULIO DE 2005 ...FRANKLIN CONTINUA MOVIENDOSE HACIA EL NORTE ALEJANDOSE DE LAS BAHAMAS... A LAS 11 PM EDT...0300Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL FRANKLIN ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 28.4 NORTE...LONGITUD 76.5 OESTE O COMO A 145 MILLAS...230 KM...AL NOR NORESTE DE LA ISLA GREAT ABACO EN EL NOROESTE DE LAS BAHAMAS. FRANKLIN SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL ESTE A CERCA DE 8 MPH... 13 KM/HR. SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO UN GIRO GRADUAL HACIA EL NORESTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. REPORTES DE UN AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO DE LA FUERZA AEREA INDICAN QUE LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN PERMANECEN CERCA DE 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO SE PRONOSTICA DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. DATOS DESDE EL AVION INDICAN QUE LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 85 MILLAS...140 KM MAYORMENTE AL ESTE DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA REPORTADA POR EL AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO ES DE 1003 MB...29.62 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION DE LAS 11 PM...28.4 NORTE... 76.5 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...NORTE A CERCA DE 8 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 50 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1003 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 5 AM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR KNABB $$ ** WTCA41 TJSJ 230255 *** TCPSP1 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL FRANKLIN ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 6 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT VIERNES 22 DE JULIO DE 2005 ...FRANKLIN CONTINUA MOVIENDOSE HACIA EL NORTE ALEJANDOSE DE LAS BAHAMAS... A LAS 11 PM EDT...0300Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL FRANKLIN ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 28.4 NORTE...LONGITUD 76.5 OESTE O COMO A 145 MILLAS...230 KM...AL NOR NORESTE DE LA ISLA GREAT ABACO EN EL NOROESTE DE LAS BAHAMAS. FRANKLIN SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL ESTE A CERCA DE 8 MPH... 13 KM/HR. SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO UN GIRO GRADUAL HACIA EL NORESTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. REPORTES DE UN AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO DE LA FUERZA AEREA INDICAN QUE LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN PERMANECEN CERCA DE 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO SE PRONOSTICA DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. DATOS DESDE EL AVION INDICAN QUE LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 85 MILLAS...140 KM MAYORMENTE AL ESTE DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA REPORTADA POR EL AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO ES DE 1003 MB...29.62 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION DE LAS 11 PM...28.4 NORTE... 76.5 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...NORTE A CERCA DE 8 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 50 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1003 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 5 AM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR KNABB $$ ** WTNT41 KNHC 230301 *** TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT FRI JUL 22 2005 AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT MEASURED NEAR 00Z AND 02Z A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1003 MB... DOWN ABOUT 4 MB COMPARED TO EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM 850 MB FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS WERE 53 KT IN A BURST OF CONVECTION JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THESE DATA... ALONG WITH DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 45 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB... SUPPORT MAINTAINING THE ADVISORY INTENSITY AT 45 KT. THE OVERALL APPEARANCE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY REMAINS UNIMPRESSIVE. THE LARGE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE YUCATAN DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE WESTERLY WINDS ACROSS FLORIDA THAT ARE IMPOSING SHEAR ON FRANKLIN... RESULTING ESSENTIALLY IN HALF OF A TROPICAL STORM... WITH MOST OF THE WINDS AND CONVECTION IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE AIRCRAFT MEASURED 45 KT FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS IN A BAND FARTHER OUT IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT ABOUT 50-75 NMI FROM THE CENTER. THE 34 KT WIND RADII WERE EXPANDED TO THE SOUTHEAST ACCORDINGLY. THE RECON FIXES INDICATE THAT FRANKLIN HAS SLOWED DOWN SLIGHTLY AND IS NOW MOVING JUST EAST OF DUE NORTH... WITH ESTIMATED INITIAL MOTION OF 010/7. FRANKLIN IS MOVING SLOWLY THROUGH A SLIGHT WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS JUST ABOUT TO EMERGE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES... WHICH IS EXPECTED TO SHARPEN WHILE MOVING FAIRLY QUICKLY EASTWARD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. LITTLE DOUBT REMAINS THAT THIS FEATURE WILL TURN FRANKLIN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST... BUT MUCH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING HOW FAST FRANKLIN WILL MOVE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE NWS MODELS... GFS AND GFDL... ARE BY FAR THE FASTEST. THE GFS SOLUTION APPEARS TOO FAST EVEN INITIALLY SINCE IT SHOWS NEARLY AN IMMEDIATE DECOUPLING OF THE LOW AND MID LEVEL CIRCULATIONS... WHICH DOES NOT SEEM TO YET BE OCCURRING. THE UKMET AND THE NAVY MODELS... NOGAPS AND GFDN... ARE MUCH SLOWER. IN FACT... THE 18Z NOGAPS IS QUITE A BIT SLOWER THAN THE 12Z RUN. THEREFORE... THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL REMAIN SLOWER THAN THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS BUT FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE VERTICAL SHEAR MIGHT ABATE A LITTLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO... BUT NORTHERLY SHEAR SHOULD BEGIN THEREAFTER AS FRANKIN MOVES FARTHER NORTH AND THE MIDLATITUDE TROUGH COMES OFF THE EAST COAST. GIVEN THIS ENVIRONMENT AND THE PRESENT LACK OF ORGANIZATION... THE DEVELOPMENT RATE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIMITED. IN FACT... ESPECIALLY GIVEN ITS SMALL SIZE... FRANKLIN COULD VERY WELL BECOME SHEARED APART IN 2-3 DAYS. ALONG THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK... THE TROPICAL STORM WILL REACH SUB-27C SSTS ON DAYS FOUR AND FIVE... SO A WEAKENING TREND IS INTRODUCED LATE IN THE FORECAST. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND LIES IN BETWEEN THE SHIPS AND GFDL SOLUTIONS. FORECASTER KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 23/0300Z 28.4N 76.5W 45 KT 12HR VT 23/1200Z 29.5N 75.7W 50 KT 24HR VT 24/0000Z 30.7N 74.1W 55 KT 36HR VT 24/1200Z 31.5N 72.2W 60 KT 48HR VT 25/0000Z 32.2N 69.9W 60 KT 72HR VT 26/0000Z 33.5N 65.5W 60 KT 96HR VT 27/0000Z 35.5N 60.5W 55 KT 120HR VT 28/0000Z 38.0N 55.0W 50 KT $$ ** WTJP31 RJTD 230300 *** WARNING 230300. WARNING VALID 240300. STORM WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0507 BANYAN (0507) 990 HPA AT 19.4N 137.0E SOUTHEAST OF PARECE VERA MOVING NORTHWEST 08 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 240 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 240300UTC AT 23.3N 135.7E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 230300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0507 BANYAN (0507) ANALYSIS PSTN 230300UTC 19.4N 137.0E FAIR MOVE NW 08KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 040KT 30KT 350NM SOUTHEAST 240NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 240300UTC 23.3N 135.7E 80NM 70% MOVE NNW 10KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 060KT 45HF 250000UTC 26.1N 133.9E 150NM 70% MOVE NNW 10KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 070KT 69HF 260000UTC 29.3N 132.7E 220NM 70% MOVE NNW 08KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT = ** WTPQ21 RJTD 230300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0506 NALGAE (0506) ANALYSIS PSTN 230300UTC 32.5N 159.7E FAIR MOVE N 08KT PRES 992HPA MXWD 040KT 30KT 240NM NORTHEAST 150NM SOUTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 240300UTC 34.7N 166.0E 100NM 70% MOVE ENE 14KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT 45HF 250000UTC 36.4N 169.2E 160NM 70% MOVE NE 08KT PRES 992HPA MXWD 040KT 69HF 260000UTC 37.0N 169.8E 290NM 70% MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 996HPA MXWD 035KT = ** WTPQ32 PGUM 230416 RRA *** TCPPQ2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM BANYAN ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 2 PM GUAM LST SAT JUL 23 2005 ...TROPICAL STORM BANYAN VEERING SLIGHTLY NORTHWEST.. NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT. AT 1 PM GUAM LST..0300Z..THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BANYAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.4 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 137.3 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 640 MILES NORTHWEST OF GUAM AND ROTA...AND 630 MILES NORTHWEST OF TINIAN AND SAIPAN. TROPICAL STORM BANYAN IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 8 MPH. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 50 MPH. TROPICAL STORM BANYAN IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. REPEATING THE 1 PM POSITION...19.4 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE AND 137.3 DEGREES EAST LONGITUDE...MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 8 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 50 MPH. THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY THAT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ON TROPICAL STORM BANYAN. $$ MIDDLEBROOKE ** WTNT80 EGRR 230502 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 23.07.2005 TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN ANALYSED POSITION : 28.1N 76.5W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 23.07.2005 28.1N 76.5W MODERATE 12UTC 23.07.2005 29.4N 75.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 24.07.2005 29.9N 74.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 24.07.2005 30.3N 72.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 25.07.2005 30.5N 71.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 25.07.2005 30.5N 70.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 26.07.2005 31.2N 69.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 26.07.2005 31.3N 69.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 27.07.2005 31.9N 69.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 27.07.2005 TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 230502 ** WTPN31 PGTW 230300 COR *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 06W (NALGAE) WARNING NR 013A CORRECTED 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 230000Z --- NEAR 32.6N 159.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 010 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 32.6N 159.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 231200Z --- 33.8N 159.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z --- 34.9N 160.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z --- 36.3N 161.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 230300Z POSITION NEAR 32.9N 159.4E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 06W (NALGAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 890 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF WAKE ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230000Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 230900Z, 231500Z, 232100Z AND 240300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 07W (BANYAN) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. JUSTIFACTION FOR CORRECTION: CORRECTED MAX SUSTAINED WINDS FOR 230000Z POSITION AND CHANGED TRACK DIRECTION IN THE REMARKS SECTION FROM NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHWARD.// ** WTPN31 PGTW 230300 COR *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 06W (NALGAE) WARNING NR 013A CORRECTED 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 230000Z --- NEAR 32.6N 159.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 010 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 32.6N 159.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 231200Z --- 33.8N 159.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z --- 34.9N 160.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z --- 36.3N 161.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 230300Z POSITION NEAR 32.9N 159.4E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 06W (NALGAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 890 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF WAKE ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230000Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 230900Z, 231500Z, 232100Z AND 240300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 07W (BANYAN) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: CORRECTED MAX SUSTAINED WINDS FOR 230000Z POSITION AND CHANGED TRACK DIRECTION IN THE REMARKS SECTION FROM NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHWARD.//