** WTJP21 RJTD 221800 *** WARNING 221800. WARNING VALID 231800. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. STORM WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0507 BANYAN (0507) 990 HPA AT 18.5N 137.9E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 09 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 250 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 231800UTC AT 21.9N 137.6E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 241800UTC AT 25.4N 135.5E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 251800UTC AT 28.6N 134.0E WITH 220 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 221800 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0507 BANYAN (0507) ANALYSIS PSTN 221800UTC 18.5N 137.9E FAIR MOVE NNW 09KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 040KT 30KT 250NM FORECAST 24HF 231800UTC 21.9N 137.6E 80NM 70% MOVE NNW 08KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 48HF 241800UTC 25.4N 135.5E 150NM 70% MOVE NNW 09KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 72HF 251800UTC 28.6N 134.0E 220NM 70% MOVE NNW 08KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 221800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS BANYAN 0507 (0507) INITIAL TIME 221800 UTC 00HR 18.5N 137.8E 988HPA 23M/S 30KTS 300KM P12HR NNW 15KM/H P+24HR 21.9N 137.2E 985HPA 25M/S P+48HR 25.3N 135.2E 980HPA 30M/S P+72HR 29.0N 133.6E 970HPA 35M/S= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 221800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS NALGAE 0506 (0506) INITIAL TIME 221800 UTC 00HR 31.7N 159.7E 990HPA 23M/S 30KTS 250KM P12HR ENE 15KM/H P+24HR 33.8N 163.0E 990HPA 20M/S P+48HR 35.2N 166.2E 998HPA 15M/S= ** WTCA41 TJSJ 221907 *** TCPSP1 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL FRANKLIN ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 5A NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 2 PM EDT VIERNES 22 DE JULIO DE 2005 ...FRANKLIN MOVIENDOSE HACIA EL NORTE ALEJANDOSE DEL NOROESTE DE LAS BAHAMAS... UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA EN EFECTO PARA EL NOROESTE DE LAS BAHAMAS PARA ELEUTHERA...LAS ABACOS...Y LA ISLA DE GRAND BAHAMA. POSIBLEMENTE EL AVISO DE DESCONTINUARA MAS TARDE HOY. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA EN SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS EN TIERRA...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR LA OFICINA LOCAL DE METEOROLOGIA. A LAS 2 PM EDT...1800Z...EL CENTRO POBREMENTE DEFINIDO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL FRANKLIN ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 27.4 NORTE...LONGITUD 76.7 OESTE O COMO A 70 MILLAS...110 KM...AL NORESTE DE MARSH HARBOR EN LA ISLA GREAT ABACO. FRANKLIN AHORA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORTE A CERCA DE 9 MPH... 15 KM/HR. SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL CONTINUE POR LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. CON ESTA TRAYECTORIA...FRANKLIN SE ALEJARA GRADUALMENTE DEL NOROESTE DE LAS BAHAMAS Y LA COSTA ESTE DE LA FLORIDA. SIN EMBARGO...DEBIDO A QUE FRANKLIN ES UNA TORMENTA TROPICAL PEQUENA...TODAVIA ES POSIBLE ALGUN MOVIMIENTO ERRATICO. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO LENTO SE PRONOSTICA DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 35 MILLAS... 55 KM MAYORMENTE AL ESTE DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1007 MB...29.74 PULGADAS. FRANKLIN PUEDE PRODUCIR CANTIDADES DE LLUVIA ENTRE 2 A 4 PULGADAS SOBRE EL NORTE DE LAS BAHAMAS DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 12 HORAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION DE LAS 2 PM...27.4 NORTE... 76.7 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...NORTE A CERCA DE 9 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 50 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1007 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 5 PM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR STEWART $$ ** WTJP22 RJTD 221800 *** WARNING 221800. WARNING VALID 231800. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. GALE WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0506 NALGAE (0506) 990 HPA AT 31.4N 159.8E FAR OFF EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHEAST 06 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 230 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 231800UTC AT 32.7N 165.0E WITH 100 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 241800UTC AT 35.6N 169.3E WITH 160 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 992 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 251800UTC AT 36.7N 170.0E WITH 290 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 996 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 221800 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0506 NALGAE (0506) ANALYSIS PSTN 221800UTC 31.4N 159.8E FAIR MOVE NE 06KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT 30KT 230NM NORTHEAST 150NM SOUTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 231800UTC 32.7N 165.0E 100NM 70% MOVE ENE 11KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT 48HF 241800UTC 35.6N 169.3E 160NM 70% MOVE NE 06KT PRES 992HPA MXWD 040KT 72HF 251800UTC 36.7N 170.0E 290NM 70% MOVE NNE SLOWLY PRES 996HPA MXWD 035KT = ** WTPQ21 RJTD 221800 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0506 NALGAE (0506) ANALYSIS PSTN 221800UTC 31.4N 159.8E FAIR MOVE NE 06KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT 30KT 230NM NORTHEAST 150NM SOUTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 231800UTC 32.7N 165.0E 100NM 70% MOVE ENE 11KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT 48HF 241800UTC 35.6N 169.3E 160NM 70% MOVE NE 06KT PRES 992HPA MXWD 040KT 72HF 251800UTC 36.7N 170.0E 290NM 70% MOVE NNE SLOWLY PRES 996HPA MXWD 035KT = ** WTNT21 KNHC 222028 *** TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062005 2100Z FRI JUL 22 2005 AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS DISCONTINUED ALL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FOR THE BAHAMAS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.8N 76.7W AT 22/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 45SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 100SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.8N 76.7W AT 22/2100Z AT 22/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.4N 76.7W FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 28.9N 76.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 35NE 45SE 15SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 30.0N 75.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW. 34 KT... 45NE 45SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 30.9N 73.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 35SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 31.5N 72.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 15NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 32.8N 67.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 15NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 34.0N 63.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 37.0N 56.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.8N 76.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0300Z FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT71 KNHC 222029 *** SPFAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT FRI JUL 22 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF FRANKLIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.7 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2PM EDT MON JUL 25 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 30.0N 75.4W 32 1 X X 33 CAPE HATTERAS NC X 3 5 3 11 30.9N 73.8W 11 11 1 1 24 NORFOLK VA X X 3 3 6 31.5N 72.0W 1 10 5 2 18 OCEAN CITY MD X X 1 4 5 MYGF 266N 787W 7 1 X X 8 ATLANTIC CITY NJ X X X 4 4 BERMUDA X X X 5 5 NEW YORK CITY NY X X X 3 3 CHARLESTON SC X 2 X 1 3 MONTAUK POINT NY X X X 2 2 MYRTLE BEACH SC X 3 1 1 5 PROVIDENCE RI X X X 2 2 WILMINGTON NC X 3 3 1 7 NANTUCKET MA X X X 2 2 MOREHEAD CITY NC X 4 4 2 10 HYANNIS MA X X X 2 2 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM SAT FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2PM SAT TO 2AM SUN C FROM 2AM SUN TO 2PM SUN D FROM 2PM SUN TO 2PM MON E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM MON X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT31 KNHC 222030 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT FRI JUL 22 2005 ...FRANKLIN CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THE BAHAMAS... AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS DISCONTINUED ALL TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE BAHAMAS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.8 NORTH... LONGITUDE 76.7 WEST OR ABOUT 100 MILES... 160 KM... NORTH-NORTHEAST OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND. FRANKLIN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TONIGHT...WITH A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. ON THIS TRACK...FRANKLIN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS AND THE FLORIDA EAST COAST. HOWEVER...FRANKLIN IS A SMALL TROPICAL STORM...SO SOME ERRATIC MOTION WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES ... 85 KM...MAINLY EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES. FRANKLIN MAY PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER THE NORTHERNMOST BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...27.8 N... 76.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM EDT. FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTCA41 TJSJ 222035 *** TCPSP1 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL FRANKLIN ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 6 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT VIERNES 22 DE JULIO DE 2005 ...FRANKLIN CONTINUA MOVIENDOSE HACIA EL NORTE ALEJANDOSE DE LAS BAHAMAS... A LAS 5 PM EDT...2100Z...EL GOBIERNO DE LAS BAHAMAS HA DECONTINUADO EL AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA TODAS LAS BAHAMAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA EN SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS EN TIERRA...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR LA OFICINA LOCAL DE METEOROLOGIA. A LAS 5 PM EDT...2100Z...EL CENTRO POBREMENTE DEFINIDO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL FRANKLIN ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 27.8 NORTE...LONGITUD 76.7 OESTE O COMO A 100 MILLAS...160 KM...AL NOR NORESTE DE LA ISLA GREAT ABACO. FRANKLIN AHORA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORTE A CERCA DE 9 MPH... 15 KM/HR. SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL CONTINUE POR LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. CON ESTA TRAYECTORIA...FRANKLIN SE ALEJARA GRADUALMENTE DEL NOROESTE DE LAS BAHAMAS Y LA COSTA ESTE DE LA FLORIDA. SIN EMBARGO...DEBIDO A QUE FRANKLIN ES UNA TORMENTA TROPICAL PEQUENA...TODAVIA ES POSIBLE ALGUN MOVIMIENTO ERRATICO. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO LENTO SE PRONOSTICA DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 50 MILLAS... 85 KM MAYORMENTE AL ESTE SURESTE DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1007 MB...29.74 PULGADAS. FRANKLIN PUEDE PRODUCIR CANTIDADES DE LLUVIA ENTRE 1 A 2 PULGADAS SOBRE EL NORTE DE LAS BAHAMAS DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 12 HORAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION DE LAS 5 PM...27.8 NORTE... 76.7 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...NORTE A CERCA DE 9 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 50 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1007 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 11 PM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR STEWART $$ ** WTNT41 KNHC 222058 *** TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT FRI JUL 22 2005 DRY AIR HAS WRAPPED UP THE EAST SIDE AND INTO THE CENTER...WHICH HAS ERODED THE DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE INNER CORE. BANDING FEATURES HAVE ALSO COME AND GONE DURING THE AFTERNOON IN SATELLITE IMAGERY AND IN THE MELBOURNE RADAR DARA. AROUND 1532Z...AIR FORCE RECON FOUND 53 KT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT...WHICH EQUALS A 42-43 KT SURFACE WIND...WHILE THE ONBOARD METEOROLOGIST AGAIN ESTIMATED SURFACE WINDS OF 55-60 IN THE SAME AREA. HOWEVER... THAT CONVECTIVE BAND HAS SINCE DISAPPEARED DUE TO THE DRY AIR...SO THOSE SURFACE WINDS WERE LIKELY ENHANCED BY STRONG DOWNDRAFTS. AS SUCH...THE INTENSITY IS BEING MAINTAINED AT 45 KT...ESPECIALLY SINCE THE PRESSURE HAS NOT FALLEN BELOW 1007 MB...AND THE CYCLONE HAS A RAGGED LOOKING APPEARANCE IN SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 360/08 KT. RECON AND RADAR POSITION ESTIMATES INDICATE FRANKLIN HAS BEEN MOVING NORTHWARD AT A STEADY 8 KT OR SO SINCE ABOUT 14Z. ACCORDING TO THE OVERWHELMING MAJORITY OF THE NHC MODELS...THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A GRADUAL TURN AND ACCELERATION TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST-NORTHEAST AFTER THAT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SPECIAL 18Z UPPER-AIR DATA INDICATE THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AND SHOULD BE ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST BY THIS TIME TOMORROW. IF THE SHORTWAVE IS STRONG ENOUGH...THEN IT MAY ERODE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF FRANKLIN...AND CAPTURE THE CYCLONE AND MOVE IT AWAY FROM THE U.S. HOWEVER...THE GFS... UKMET...AND THE CANADIAN MODELS NOW ONLY TAKE FRANKLIN AS FAR NORTH AS 30N LATITUDE IN 36-48 HOURS...AND THEN LEAVE THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION BEHIND WHILE THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER MOVES QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. WHILE THIS SCENARIO IS POSSIBLE...IT WOULD MEAN THAT FRANKLIN WOULD CEASE TO EXIST AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THOSE MODELS ALSO MOVE THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION BACK TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AFTER 72 HOURS...MUCH LIKE THE MEDIUM AND DEEP BAM MODELS. HOWEVER...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK REMAINS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS CLOSE TO THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS. THE SHEAR ACROSS FRANKLIN HAS INCREASED FROM THE WEST AGAIN DUE TO THE OUTFLOW FROM THE DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG YUCATAN DISTURBANCE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES FRANKLIN IS GETTING PINCHED FROM THE EAST BY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHWESTWARD. THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN IS ONLY EXPECTED TO SLOWLY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION TO OCCUR...AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE SLOWER THAN NORMAL INTENSIFICATION FORECASTS AS PER THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL. THE GFDL BRINGS FRANKLIN UP TO 89 IN 48 HOURS...BUT THIS SEEMS OVERDONE... ESPECIALLY WITH INCREASING WESTERLY MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL FLOW FORECAST TO AFFECT THE SYSTEM AT THAT TIME. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 22/2100Z 27.8N 76.7W 45 KT 12HR VT 23/0600Z 28.9N 76.4W 50 KT 24HR VT 23/1800Z 30.0N 75.4W 55 KT 36HR VT 24/0600Z 30.9N 73.8W 60 KT 48HR VT 24/1800Z 31.5N 72.0W 60 KT 72HR VT 25/1800Z 32.8N 67.6W 60 KT 96HR VT 26/1800Z 34.0N 63.0W 60 KT 120HR VT 27/1800Z 37.0N 56.5W 60 KT $$ ** WTJP31 RJTD 222100 *** WARNING 222100. WARNING VALID 232100. STORM WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0507 BANYAN (0507) 990 HPA AT 18.8N 137.6E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 09 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 250 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 232100UTC AT 22.2N 136.9E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 222100 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0507 BANYAN (0507) ANALYSIS PSTN 222100UTC 18.8N 137.6E FAIR MOVE NNW 09KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 040KT 30KT 250NM FORECAST 24HF 232100UTC 22.2N 136.9E 80NM 70% MOVE NNW 08KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 45HF 241800UTC 25.4N 135.5E 150NM 70% MOVE NNW 09KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 69HF 251800UTC 28.6N 134.0E 220NM 70% MOVE NNW 08KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT = ** WTPQ21 RJTD 222100 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0506 NALGAE (0506) ANALYSIS PSTN 222100UTC 31.7N 159.9E FAIR MOVE NE 07KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT 30KT 230NM NORTHEAST 150NM SOUTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 232100UTC 33.3N 165.6E 100NM 70% MOVE ENE 12KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT 45HF 241800UTC 35.6N 169.3E 160NM 70% MOVE NE 06KT PRES 992HPA MXWD 040KT 69HF 251800UTC 36.7N 170.0E 290NM 70% MOVE NNE SLOWLY PRES 996HPA MXWD 035KT = ** WTPN32 PGTW 222100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 07W (BANYAN) WARNING NR 006 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 221800Z --- NEAR 18.3N 137.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 350 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 18.3N 137.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 19.9N 137.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 21.5N 136.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 23.1N 136.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 24.6N 135.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 27.9N 135.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 09 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 261800Z --- 31.6N 135.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 17 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 271800Z --- 35.9N 142.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT --- REMARKS: 222100Z POSITION NEAR 18.7N 137.6E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 07W (BANYAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 425 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF IWO JIMA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221800Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 230300Z, 230900Z, 231500Z AND 232100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 06W (NALGAE) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN31 PGTW 222100 *** NAVOCEANO STENNIS SPACE CENTER MS//N16// MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 06W (NALGAE) WARNING NR 012 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 221800Z --- NEAR 31.7N 159.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 040 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 31.7N 159.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 32.7N 160.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 33.6N 161.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 34.4N 163.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 35.3N 164.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 222100Z POSITION NEAR 32.0N 160.1E. TROPICAL STORM 06W (NALGAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 835 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF WAKE ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221800Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 230300Z, 230900Z, 231500Z AND 232100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 07W (BANYAN) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//