** WTSR20 WSSS 220600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 221200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS NALGAE 0506 (0506) INITIAL TIME 221200 UTC 00HR 30.9N 159.1E 990HPA 23M/S 30KTS 250KM P12HR NNE 20KM/H P+24HR 33.3N 159.8E 985HPA 23M/S P+48HR 35.9N 161.0E 990HPA 20M/S P+72HR 37.6N 162.9E 995HPA 18M/S= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 221200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS BANYAN 0507 (0507) INITIAL TIME 221200 UTC 00HR 17.4N 138.1E 988HPA 23M/S 30KTS 300KM P12HR N 20KM/H P+24HR 21.0N 138.0E 985HPA 25M/S P+48HR 24.4N 138.0E 980HPA 30M/S P+72HR 28.2N 138.6E 970HPA 35M/S= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 221200 CCA *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS BANYAN 0507 (0507) INITIAL TIME 221200 UTC 00HR 17.4N 138.1E 988HPA 23M/S 30KTS 300KM P-06HR 16.2N 137.8E 988HPA 23M/S P12HR N 20KM/H P+24HR 21.0N 138.0E 985HPA 25M/S P+48HR 24.4N 138.0E 980HPA 30M/S P+72HR 28.2N 138.6E 970HPA 35M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 221200 *** WARNING 221200. WARNING VALID 231200. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. STORM WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0507 BANYAN (0507) 990 HPA AT 17.6N 138.3E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTH 10 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 250 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 231200UTC AT 20.9N 138.4E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 241200UTC AT 24.1N 137.0E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 251200UTC AT 27.3N 135.6E WITH 220 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 221200 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0507 BANYAN (0507) ANALYSIS PSTN 221200UTC 17.6N 138.3E FAIR MOVE N 10KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 040KT 30KT 250NM FORECAST 24HF 231200UTC 20.9N 138.4E 80NM 70% MOVE N 08KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 48HF 241200UTC 24.1N 137.0E 150NM 70% MOVE NNW 08KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 72HF 251200UTC 27.3N 135.6E 220NM 70% MOVE NNW 08KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT = ** WTCA41 TJSJ 221247 *** TCPSP1 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL FRANKLIN ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 4A NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 8 AM EDT VIERNES 22 DE JULIO DE 2005 ...FRANKLIN MOVIENDOSE HACIA EL NOROESTE A TRAVES DE LA ISLA GREAT ABACO EN EL NOROESTE DE LAS BAHAMAS... UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL CONTINUA EN EFECTO PARA EL NOROESTE DE LAS BAHAMAS PARA ELEUTHERA...LAS ABACOS...Y LA ISLA DE GRAND BAHAMA. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL EN LAS AREAS BAJO AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA EN SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS EN TIERRA...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR LA OFICINA LOCAL DE METEOROLOGIA. A LAS 8 AM EDT...1200Z... EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL FRANKLIN FUE LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 26.8 NORTE...LONGITUD 77.4 OESTE O SOBRE LA PARTE NORTE DE LA ISLA GREAT ABACO. ESTO TAMEBIN ES A UNAS 80 MILLAS... 130 KM...AL ESTE DE FREEPORT EN LA ISLA GRAN BAHAMA. FRANKLIN SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. UN GIRO GRADUAL HACIA EL NORTE...CON UNA DISMINUCION EN LA VELOCIDAD DE TRASLACION...SE ESPERA POR LAS PROXIMAS 12 A 24 HORAS. ESTE MOVIMIENTO MANTENDRA EL CENTRO DE FRANKLIN MOVIENDOSE PARALELO A LA COSTA ESTE DE LA FLORIDA. SIN EMBARGO...DEBIDO A QUE FRANKLIN ES UNA TORMENTA TROPICAL...ES POSIBLE ALGUN MOVIMIENTO ERRATICO. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 45 MPH...75 KM/HR CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO SE PRONOSTICA DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 40 MILLAS...65 KM MAYORMENTE AL ESTE DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1008 MB...29.77 PULGADAS. FRANKLIN PUEDE PRODUCIR CANTIDADES DE LLUVIA ENTRE 2 A 4 PULGADAS SOBRE EL NORTE DE LAS BAHAMAS DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION DE LAS 8 AM...26.8 NORTE...77.4 OESTE. EL MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...NOROESTE CERCA DE 9 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 45 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1008 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 11 AM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR STEWART $$ ** WTJP22 RJTD 221200 *** WARNING 221200. WARNING VALID 231200. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. GALE WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0506 NALGAE (0506) 990 HPA AT 30.9N 159.3E FAR OFF EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHEAST 06 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 230 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 231200UTC AT 31.9N 162.5E WITH 100 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 241200UTC AT 32.7N 166.5E WITH 160 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 251200UTC AT 34.3N 169.5E WITH 290 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 221200 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0506 NALGAE (0506) ANALYSIS PSTN 221200UTC 30.9N 159.3E FAIR MOVE NE 06KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT 30KT 230NM NORTHEAST 150NM SOUTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 231200UTC 31.9N 162.5E 100NM 70% MOVE ENE 07KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT 48HF 241200UTC 32.7N 166.5E 160NM 70% MOVE ENE 08KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT 72HF 251200UTC 34.3N 169.5E 290NM 70% MOVE NE 07KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT = ** WTPN31 PGTW 221500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 06W (NALGAE) WARNING NR 011 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 221200Z --- NEAR 30.9N 159.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 050 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 30.9N 159.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 230000Z --- 31.8N 160.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 231200Z --- 32.8N 161.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z --- 33.7N 161.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z --- 34.2N 163.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 221500Z POSITION NEAR 31.1N 159.5E. TROPICAL STORM 06W (NALGAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 800 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF WAKE ISLAND, HAS TURNED TO THE EAST AND TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THIS FORECAST IS A DEVIATION TO THE EAST FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS. TS 06W HAS IMPROVED ORGANIZATION AND CONVECTION HAS INCREASED OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. A 220758Z QUIKSCAT PASS DEPICTS A WELL ORGANIZED CIRCULATION FOR TS 06W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221200Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 222100Z, 230300Z, 230900Z AND 231500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 07W (BANYAN) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN31 PGTW 221500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 06W (NALGAE) WARNING NR 011 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 221200Z --- NEAR 30.9N 159.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 050 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 30.9N 159.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 230000Z --- 31.8N 160.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 231200Z --- 32.8N 161.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z --- 33.7N 161.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z --- 34.2N 163.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 221500Z POSITION NEAR 31.1N 159.5E. TROPICAL STORM 06W (NALGAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 800 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF WAKE ISLAND, HAS TURNED TO THE EAST AND TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THIS FORECAST IS A DEVIATION TO THE EAST FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS. TS 06W HAS IMPROVED ORGANIZATION AND CONVECTION HAS INCREASED OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. A 220758Z QUIKSCAT PASS DEPICTS A WELL ORGANIZED CIRCULATION FOR TS 06W. MAX- IMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221200Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 222100Z, 230300Z, 230900Z AND 231500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 07W (BANYAN) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTNT21 KNHC 221437 *** TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062005 1500Z FRI JUL 22 2005 A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS FOR ELEUTHERA... THE ABACOS... AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.8N 77.0W AT 22/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.8N 77.0W AT 22/1500Z AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.6N 76.8W FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 27.7N 77.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 35NE 30SE 15SW 25NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 29.0N 77.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW. 34 KT... 45NE 35SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 29.9N 76.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW. 34 KT... 50NE 45SE 25SW 45NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 30.4N 74.4W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 15NW. 34 KT... 60NE 55SE 30SW 45NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 31.3N 71.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 15NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 35SW 45NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 32.5N 68.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 34.0N 62.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.8N 77.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/2100Z FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT71 KNHC 221438 *** SPFAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT FRI JUL 22 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF FRANKLIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.0 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8AM EDT MON JUL 25 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 29.0N 77.5W 51 X X X 51 JACKSONVILLE FL 1 3 1 X 5 29.9N 76.0W 23 4 X 1 28 SAVANNAH GA X 2 2 2 6 30.4N 74.4W 4 14 2 2 22 CHARLESTON SC X 2 3 3 8 MYGF 266N 787W 38 X X X 38 MYRTLE BEACH SC X 1 4 4 9 BERMUDA X X X 2 2 WILMINGTON NC X X 3 6 9 W PALM BEACH FL 5 1 X X 6 MOREHEAD CITY NC X X 3 6 9 FT PIERCE FL 8 1 X 1 10 CAPE HATTERAS NC X X 1 8 9 COCOA BEACH FL 7 2 X X 9 NORFOLK VA X X X 4 4 DAYTONA BEACH FL 3 4 X 1 8 OCEAN CITY MD X X X 2 2 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM SAT FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8AM SAT TO 8PM SAT C FROM 8PM SAT TO 8AM SUN D FROM 8AM SUN TO 8AM MON E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM MON X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT31 KNHC 221443 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT FRI JUL 22 2005 ...FRANKLIN DRIFTING ERRATICALLY NORTHWESTWARD NEAR ABACO ISLANDS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS FOR ELEUTHERA...THE ABACOS...AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.8 NORTH... LONGITUDE 77.0 WEST OR ABOUT 30 MILES... 45 KM... NORTH-NORTHEAST OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND AND ABOUT 115 MILES... 180 KM...EAST OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND. FRANKLIN HAS BEEN MEANDERING SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST NEAR 2 MPH... 4 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH...AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED...IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION WOULD KEEP THE CENTER OF FRANKLIN MOVING PARALLEL TO THE FLORIDA EAST COAST. HOWEVER...SINCE FRANLIN IS A SMALL TROPICAL STORM...SOME ERRATIC MOTION IS POSSIBLE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES ... 55 KM MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES. FRANKLIN MAY PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...26.8 N... 77.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 2 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM EDT. FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT41 KNHC 221502 *** TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT FRI JUL 22 2005 THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE APPEARANCE OF FRANKLIN HAS IMPROVED THIS MORNING AND THE SHEAR ON THE WEST SIDE HAS LESSENED. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION AND FOR THE CLOUD PATTERN TO BECOME MORE CIRCULAR. THE SURFACE WIND FIELD HAS ALSO BECOME BETTER DEFINED AS NOTED BY A 1046Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS AND SURFACE OBS FROM THE BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA. AIR FORCE RECON FOUND 49 KT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT... WHICH EQUALS ABOUT A 39-KT SURFACE WIND. HOWEVER...THE ONBOARD METEOROLOGIST ESTIMATED SURFACE WINDS OF 55-60 IN THE SAME AREA. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING CONSERVATIVELY INCREASED TO 45 KT...BUT IT COULD BE A LITTLE HIGHER. THE INITIAL MOTION IS AN UNCERTAIN 330/02 KT. THE FIRST TWO RECON POSITIONS HAVE COME IN EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY POSITIONS... AND THE MOST RECENT FIX CAME IN ABOUT 15 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE FIRST ONE. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR DATA FROM MIAMI AND MELBOURNE INDICATE LITTLE OVERALL NET MOTION...OTHER PERHAPS A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD DRIFT. UPPER-AIR DATA AT 06Z AND 12Z INDICATE THAT FRANKLIN APPEARS TO BE LOCATED ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF OR WITHIN A FAIRLY STOUT MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE. AS RESULT...THERE MAY BE SOME SLOW ERRATIC MOTION TO THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO UNTIL A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS MOVES EASTWARD TO THE U.S. EAST COAST AND WEAKENS THE RIDGE AXIS TO THE NORTH OF FRANKLIN. THAT MAY ALLOW FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT NORTHWARD AT THAT TIME AND...IF THE RIDGE WEAKENS AS THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE FORECASTING...THEN THE CYCLONE WOULD MOVE THROUGH THE RIDGE AND RECURVE TO THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER...FRANKLIN IS A VERY SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE AND IT WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH RIDGE TO THE NORTH TO KEEP THE CYCLONE FROM RECURVING OUT TO SEA AND TURN TOWARD THE WEST. THIS ALTERNATE SCENARIO IS SUGGESTED BY THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL MODELS NHC98 AND A9UK...WHICH MAKE A SMALL LOOP NORTH OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS AND THEN TURN FRANKLIN BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AFTER 96 HOURS. THE DEEP AND MEDIUM BAM MODELS HAVE ALSO PERSISTED WITH THEIR PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS OF SLOW NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH 36-48 HOURS...AND THEN TURNING THE CYCLONE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA IN 72-96 HOURS. THE SHEAR ACROSS FRANKLIN HAS STEADILY WEAKEND THIS MORNING...AND THE VARIOUS MODELS FORECAST THIS TO CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SOME MODEST STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR AS PER THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS. IF FRANKLIN REMAINS STATIONARY EAST OF FLORIDA AND DOES NOT RECURVE AS FORECAST...THEN THE INTENSITIES AFTER 48 HOURS WOULD LIKELY BE HIGHER THAN INDICATED. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 22/1500Z 26.8N 77.0W 45 KT 12HR VT 23/0000Z 27.7N 77.5W 50 KT 24HR VT 23/1200Z 29.0N 77.5W 55 KT 36HR VT 24/0000Z 29.9N 76.0W 60 KT 48HR VT 24/1200Z 30.4N 74.4W 60 KT 72HR VT 25/1200Z 31.3N 71.5W 60 KT 96HR VT 26/1200Z 32.5N 68.0W 60 KT 120HR VT 27/1200Z 34.0N 62.5W 60 KT $$ ** WTPN32 PGTW 221500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 07W (BANYAN) WARNING NR 005 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 221200Z --- NEAR 17.3N 138.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 020 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 17.3N 138.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 230000Z --- 19.0N 138.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 231200Z --- 20.4N 138.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z --- 22.0N 137.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z --- 23.9N 137.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 251200Z --- 27.9N 137.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 09 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 261200Z --- 31.3N 139.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 271200Z --- 34.3N 144.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT --- REMARKS: 221500Z POSITION NEAR 17.7N 138.1E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 07W (BANYAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 450 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF GUAM, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TS 07W REMAINS AS A BROAD CIRCULATION WITH THE STRONG WINDS AND DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221200Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 222100Z, 230300Z, 230900Z AND 231500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 06W (NALGAE) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTCA41 TJSJ 221511 *** TCPSP1 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL FRANKLIN ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 5 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT VIERNES 22 DE JULIO DE 2005 ...FRANKLIN DESPLAZANDOSE ERRATICAMENTE HACIA EL NOROESTE CERCA DE LAS ISLAS ABACOS... UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA EN EFECTO PARA EL NOROESTE DE LAS BAHAMAS PARA ELEUTHERA...LAS ABACOS...Y LA ISLA DE GRAND BAHAMA. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL EN LAS AREAS BAJO AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA EN SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS EN TIERRA...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR LA OFICINA LOCAL DE METEOROLOGIA. A LAS 11 AM EDT...1500Z...EL CENTRO DEL POBREMENTE DEFINIDO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL FRANKLIN FUE LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 26.8 NORTE...LONGITUD 77.0 OESTE O COMO A 30 MILLAS...24 KM...AL NORTE-NORESTE DE LA ISLA GREAT ABACO Y COMO A 115 MILLAS... 180 KM...AL ESTE DE FREEPORT EN LA ISLA GRAN BAHAMA. FRANKLIN HA ESTADO DEAMBULANDO LENTAMENTE HACIA EL NORTE-NOROESTE O NOROESTE A CERCA DE 2 MPH... 4 KM/HR. UN GIRO GRADUAL HACIA EL NORTE...CON UNA VELOCIDAD DE TRASLACION UN POCO MAS RAPIDA...SE ESPERA DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 12 A 24 HORAS. ESTE MOVIMIENTO MANTENDRIA EL CENTRO DE FRANKLIN MOVIENDOSE PARALELO A LA COSTA ESTE DE LA FLORIDA. SIN EMBARGO...DEBIDO A QUE FRANKLIN ES UNA TORMENTA TROPICAL PEQUENA...ES POSIBLE ALGUN MOVIMIENTO ERRATICO. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO LENTO SE PRONOSTICA DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 35 MILLAS... 55 KM MAYORMENTE AL ESTE DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA REPORTADA RECIENTEMENTE POR UN AVION DE RECONICIMIENTO DE LA UNIDAD DE LA RESERVA DE LA FUERZA AEREA FUE DE 1007 MB...29.74 PULGADAS. FRANKLIN PUEDE PRODUCIR CANTIDADES DE LLUVIA ENTRE 2 A 4 PULGADAS SOBRE EL NORTE DE LAS BAHAMAS DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION DE LAS 11 AM...26.8 NORTE...77.0 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...NORTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 2 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 50 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1007 MB. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 2 PM EDT SEGUIDA POR LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 5 PM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR STEWART $$ ** WTPQ32 PGUM 221536 *** TCPPQ2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM BANYAN (07W) ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 2 AM GUAM LST SAT JUL 23 2005 ...TROPICAL STORM BANYAN (07W) PICKING UP SPEED... NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT. AT 1 AM GUAM LST..1500Z..THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BANYAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.7 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 138.1 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT... 530 MILES NORTHWEST OF GUAM 500 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF ROTA 530 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF TINIAN 535 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN 565 MILES NORTH OF YAP TROPICAL STORM BANYAN IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH. DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS...TROPICAL STORM BANYAN IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN NORTHWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH. THE LATEST FORECAST FROM THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER CALLS FOR INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM BANYAN MAY REACH TYPHOON INTENSITY BY SUNDAY MORNING. REPEATING THE 1 AM POSITION...17.7 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE AND 138.1 DEGREES EAST LONGITUDE...MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 MPH. THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 8 AM GUAM LST. $$ HENDRICKS ** WTPQ32 PGUM 221536 *** TCPPQ2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM BANYAN (07W) ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 2 AM GUAM LST SAT JUL 23 2005 ...TROPICAL STORM BANYAN (07W) PICKING UP SPEED... NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT. AT 1 AM GUAM LST..1500Z..THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BANYAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.7 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 138.1 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT... 530 MILES NORTHWEST OF GUAM 500 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF ROTA 530 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF TINIAN 535 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN 565 MILES NORTH OF YAP TROPICAL STORM BANYAN IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH. DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS...TROPICAL STORM BANYAN IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN NORTHWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH. THE LATEST FORECAST FROM THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER CALLS FOR INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM BANYAN MAY REACH TYPHOON INTENSITY BY SUNDAY MORNING. REPEATING THE 1 AM POSITION...17.7 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE AND 138.1 DEGREES EAST LONGITUDE...MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 MPH. THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 8 AM GUAM LST. $$ HENDRICKS ** WTJP31 RJTD 221500 *** WARNING 221500. WARNING VALID 231500. STORM WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0507 BANYAN (0507) 990 HPA AT 18.1N 138.2E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTH 12 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 250 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 231500UTC AT 21.4N 137.8E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 221500 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0507 BANYAN (0507) ANALYSIS PSTN 221500UTC 18.1N 138.2E FAIR MOVE N 12KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 040KT 30KT 250NM FORECAST 24HF 231500UTC 21.4N 137.8E 80NM 70% MOVE N 08KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 45HF 241200UTC 24.1N 137.0E 150NM 70% MOVE NNW 08KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 69HF 251200UTC 27.3N 135.6E 220NM 70% MOVE NNW 08KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT = ** WTPQ21 RJTD 221500 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0506 NALGAE (0506) ANALYSIS PSTN 221500UTC 31.0N 159.5E FAIR MOVE NE SLOWLY PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT 30KT 230NM NORTHEAST 150NM SOUTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 231500UTC 32.0N 162.9E 100NM 70% MOVE ENE 07KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT 45HF 241200UTC 32.7N 166.5E 160NM 70% MOVE ENE 08KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT 69HF 251200UTC 34.3N 169.5E 290NM 70% MOVE NE 07KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT = ** WTNT80 EGRR 221700 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 22.07.2005 TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN ANALYSED POSITION : 26.4N 76.8W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 22.07.2005 26.4N 76.8W MODERATE 00UTC 23.07.2005 27.7N 77.5W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 23.07.2005 28.5N 77.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 24.07.2005 29.5N 76.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 24.07.2005 30.3N 75.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 25.07.2005 30.5N 75.3W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 25.07.2005 31.0N 75.4W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 26.07.2005 31.5N 74.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 26.07.2005 31.6N 74.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 27.07.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 221700 ** WTNT31 KNHC 221751 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM EDT FRI JUL 22 2005 ...FRANKLIN MOVING NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS FOR ELEUTHERA...THE ABACOS...AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND. THIS WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z...THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE 76.7 WEST OR ABOUT 70 MILES... 110 KM... NORTHEAST OF MARSH HARBOR ON GREAT ABACO ISLAND. FRANKLIN IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 9 MPH... 15 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...FRANKLIN WILL GRADUALLY MOVE AWAY FROM THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS AND THE FLORIDA EAST COAST. HOWEVER...SINCE FRANLIN IS A SMALL TROPICAL STORM...SOME ERRATIC MOTION IS STILL POSSIBLE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES ... 55 KM MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES. FRANKLIN MAY PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS. REPEATING THE 2 PM EDT POSITION...27.4 N... 76.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM EDT. FORECASTER STEWART $$