** WTIN20 DEMS 220607 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE NEW DELHI 22-07-2005 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTIVE CLOUDS OVER EAST CENTRAL ARABIAN SEA,PARTS OF BAY OF BENGAL AND ANDAMAN SEA(.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 29 DEG. NORTH OVER INDIAN REGION (.) ** WTPQ20 RJTD 220600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0507 BANYAN (0507) ANALYSIS PSTN 220600UTC 16.5N 137.9E FAIR MOVE NE 09KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 040KT 30KT 250NM FORECAST 24HF 230600UTC 19.0N 137.6E 80NM 70% MOVE N 06KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 48HF 240600UTC 22.0N 136.3E 150NM 70% MOVE NNW 08KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 72HF 250600UTC 25.5N 135.0E 220NM 70% MOVE NNW 09KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT = ** WTJP21 RJTD 220600 *** WARNING 220600. WARNING VALID 230600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. STORM WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0507 BANYAN (0507) 990 HPA AT 16.5N 137.9E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHEAST 09 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 250 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 230600UTC AT 19.0N 137.6E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 240600UTC AT 22.0N 136.3E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 250600UTC AT 25.5N 135.0E WITH 220 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 220600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS NALGAE 0506 (0506) INITIAL TIME 220600 UTC 00HR 30.6N 158.8E 990HPA 23M/S 30KTS 250KM P12HR NNE 20KM/H P+24HR 32.8N 157.8E 985HPA 25M/S P+48HR 34.6N 159.0E 990HPA 23M/S P+72HR 36.2N 161.0E 995HPA 18M/S= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 220600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS BANYAN 0507 (0507) INITIAL TIME 220600 UTC 00HR 16.2N 138.2E 988HPA 23M/S 30KTS 250KM P12HR NNE 20KM/H P+24HR 19.0N 138.4E 985HPA 25M/S P+48HR 22.0N 138.5E 980HPA 30M/S P+72HR 25.9N 138.0E 970HPA 35M/S= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 220600 CCA *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS BANYAN 0506 (0506) INITIAL TIME 220600 UTC 00HR 16.2N 138.2E 988HPA 23M/S 30KTS 250KM P12HR NNE 20KM/H P+24HR 19.0N 138.4E 985HPA 25M/S P+48HR 22.0N 138.5E 980HPA 30M/S P+72HR 25.9N 138.0E 970HPA 35M/S= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 220600 CCB *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS NALGAE 0506 (0506) INITIAL TIME 220600 UTC 00HR 30.6N 158.8E 990HPA 23M/S 30KTS 250KM P12HR NNE 20KM/H P+24HR 32.8N 157.8E 985HPA 25M/S P+48HR 34.6N 159.0E 990HPA 23M/S P+72HR 36.2N 161.0E 995HPA 18M/S= ** WTJP22 RJTD 220600 *** WARNING 220600. WARNING VALID 230600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. STORM WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0506 NALGAE (0506) 990 HPA AT 30.6N 158.7E FAR OFF EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 09 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 230 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 230600UTC AT 31.9N 159.7E WITH 90 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 240600UTC AT 33.0N 163.0E WITH 160 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 250600UTC AT 34.5N 166.6E WITH 290 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 220600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0506 NALGAE (0506) ANALYSIS PSTN 220600UTC 30.6N 158.7E FAIR MOVE NNE 09KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT 30KT 230NM NORTHEAST 150NM SOUTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 230600UTC 31.9N 159.7E 90NM 70% MOVE NNE SLOWLY PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 48HF 240600UTC 33.0N 163.0E 160NM 70% MOVE ENE 07KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT 72HF 250600UTC 34.5N 166.6E 290NM 70% MOVE ENE 08KT PRES 992HPA MXWD 045KT = ** WTJP22 RJTD 220600 *** WARNING 220600. WARNING VALID 230600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. STORM WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0506 NALGAE (0506) 990 HPA AT 30.6N 158.7E FAR OFF EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 09 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 230 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 230600UTC AT 31.9N 159.7E WITH 90 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 240600UTC AT 33.0N 163.0E WITH 160 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 250600UTC AT 34.5N 166.6E WITH 290 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ30 RJTD 220600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 3 FOR TS 0507 BANYAN (0507) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 220600 UTC IS FAIR. TS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TS WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TS WILL BE GRADED UP TO STS WITHIN 24 HOURS. TS WILL DEVELOP BECAUSE CLOUD FEATURES OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW HAVE BECOME DISTINCT AND CYCLONE WILL STAY IN HIGH SST AREA. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 3.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPQ31 RJTD 220600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 6 FOR TS 0506 NALGAE (0506) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 220600 UTC IS FAIR. TS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TS WILL MOVE NORTH FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS THEN MOVE TO NORTHEAST. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TS WILL BE GRADED UP TO STS WITHIN 24 HOURS. TS WILL DEVELOP BECAUSE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE NEAR CYCLONE CENTER H AS BECOME COLDER. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 3.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPQ31 RJTD 220600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 6 FOR TS 0506 NALGAE (0506) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 220600 UTC IS FAIR. TS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TS WILL MOVE NORTH FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS THEN MOVE TO NORTHEAST. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TS WILL BE GRADED UP TO STS WITHIN 24 HOURS. TS WILL DEVELOP BECAUSE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE NEAR CYCLONE CENTER H AS BECOME COLDER. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 3.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTKO20 RKSL 220600 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 3 NAME TS 0506 NALGAE ANALYSIS POSITION 220600UTC 30.6N 158.7E MOVEMENT N 10KT PRES/VMAX 990HPA 45KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 230600UTC 32.3N 159.4E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT 48HR POSITION 240600UTC 33.2N 162.2E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 990HPA 45KT 72HR POSITION 250600UTC 34.5N 165.3E WITHIN 215NM PRES/VMAX 996HPA 35KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPN31 PGTW 220900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 06W (NALGAE) WARNING NR 010 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 220600Z --- NEAR 30.6N 158.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 30.6N 158.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 31.8N 158.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 32.9N 158.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 34.0N 158.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 35.3N 159.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 220900Z POSITION NEAR 30.9N 158.5E. TROPICAL STORM 06W (NALGAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 810 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF WAKE ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TS 06W HAS MAINTAINED ORGANIZATION AND CONVECTION OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. NEXT WARNINGS AT 221500Z, 222100Z, 230300Z AND 230900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 07W (BANYAN) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTNT71 KNHC 220831 *** SPFAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT FRI JUL 22 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF FRANKLIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.3 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2AM EDT MON JUL 25 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 29.0N 77.6W 45 X X X 45 JACKSONVILLE FL 1 3 2 1 7 29.9N 76.8W 27 2 X X 29 SAVANNAH GA X 3 3 3 9 30.5N 75.5W 10 10 2 1 23 CHARLESTON SC X 3 4 4 11 MYGF 266N 787W 38 X 1 X 39 MYRTLE BEACH SC X 1 5 6 12 W PALM BEACH FL 6 1 X X 7 WILMINGTON NC X 1 4 6 11 FT PIERCE FL 10 X 1 X 11 MOREHEAD CITY NC X X 3 8 11 COCOA BEACH FL 8 2 X X 10 CAPE HATTERAS NC X X 2 7 9 DAYTONA BEACH FL 4 3 1 1 9 NORFOLK VA X X X 4 4 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM SAT FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2AM SAT TO 2PM SAT C FROM 2PM SAT TO 2AM SUN D FROM 2AM SUN TO 2AM MON E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM MON X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT31 KNHC 220832 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT FRI JUL 22 2005 ...CENTER OF FRANKLIN MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS GREAT ABACO ISLAND IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS... AT 5 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR NEW PROVIDENCE AND THE BERRY ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS FOR ELEUTHERA... THE ABACOS... AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.3 WEST OR OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND. THIS IS ALSO ABOUT 95 MILES... 150 KM...EAST OF FREEPORT ON GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND. FRANKLIN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF FRANKLIN NORTH OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS LATER TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH... 75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FRANKLIN REMAINS A SMALL STORM. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES... 65 KM MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES. FRANKLIN MAY PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT POSITION...26.7 N... 77.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 AM EDT. FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT21 KNHC 220832 *** TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062005 0900Z FRI JUL 22 2005 AT 5 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR NEW PROVIDENCE AND THE BERRY ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS FOR ELEUTHERA... THE ABACOS... AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.7N 77.3W AT 22/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 35NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.7N 77.3W AT 22/0900Z AT 22/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.4N 76.9W FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 27.6N 77.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 35NE 25SE 15SW 25NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 29.0N 77.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 35NE 35SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 29.9N 76.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 45NE 45SE 35SW 45NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 30.5N 75.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 55NE 55SE 55SW 55NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 31.5N 73.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT... 65NE 65SE 65SW 65NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 32.5N 69.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 34.0N 64.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.7N 77.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/1500Z FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTPN32 PGTW 220900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 07W (BANYAN) WARNING NR 004 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 220600Z --- NEAR 16.3N 137.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 015 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 16.3N 137.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 17.9N 138.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 19.6N 138.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 21.3N 138.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 23.1N 137.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 000 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 27.2N 138.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 11 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z --- 30.9N 140.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 270600Z --- 33.5N 145.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT --- REMARKS: 220900Z POSITION NEAR 16.7N 137.8E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 07W (BANYAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 450 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF GUAM, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TS 07W REMAINS AS A BROAD CIRCULATION WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS AND DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 221500Z, 222100Z, 230300Z AND 230900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 06W (NALGAE) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTNT41 KNHC 220850 *** TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT FRI JUL 22 2005 WHILE THE CONVECTIVE TOPS ARE COOLING AS THE DIURNAL MAXIMUM APPROACHES...FRANKLIN HAS A SOMEWHAT RAGGED APPEARANCE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING. THE CENTRAL CONVECTION IS POORLY ORGANIZED...WITH THE STRONGEST CLUSTER EAST OF THE CENTER. SURFACE REPORTS FROM GREAT ABACO HAVE NOT YET SHOWN THE TIGHT CENTER REPORTED BY THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 40 KT...WHICH IS A LITTLE ABOVE THE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KT FROM ALL AGENCIES. A NEW RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT SHOULD REACH FRANKLIN AROUND 12Z. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 305-310 AT 10 KT. FRANKLIN IS HEADING FOR A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EAST OF FLORIDA AS A DEEP LAYER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE RESPOND TO THIS PATTERN BY RECURVING FRANKLIN TO THE NORTHEAST AND ACCELERATING IT OUT TO SEA. THIS INCLUDES BOTH THE GFS AND UKMET...WHICH WERE CALLING FOR THE STORM TO STALL IN EARLIER RUNS. HOWEVER...THE BAMM AND BAMD STILL CALL FOR FRANKLIN TO TURN WESTWARD AFTER 36 HR...WHILE THE NHC98 CALLS FOR A 5-DAY LOOP NEAR THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. THESE SCENARIOS ARE POSSIBLE IF FRANKLIN MISSES CONNECTING WITH THE ONCOMING TROUGH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE EXTREMES...CALLLING FOR FRANKLIN TO RECURVE NORTHEASTWARD AT A SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT AT A SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWER FORWARD SPEED THEN THE DYNAMICAL MODELS. FRANKLIN IS CURRENTLY LOCATED UNDER AN UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS...WITH WESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL WEST OF THE AXIS TRYING TO PUSH THE AXIS ACROSS THE CENTER AND PRODUCE SHEAR. THIS SHOULD AT LEAST SLOW INTENSIFICATION IN THE SHORT TERM. IN THE LONGER TERM...HOW FAST FRANKLIN MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST WILL DETERMINE HOW FAVORABLE CONDITIONS ARE FOR STRENGTHENING. A FASTER MOTION WOULD PLACE THE STORM EAST OF THE ONCOMING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...WHICH WOULD ALLOW MORE STRENGTHENING. A SLOWER MOTION WOULD ALLOW THE TROUGH TO RUN OVER THE STORM AND EXPOSE IT TO NORTHERLY SHEAR. THE GFDL...WHICH NOW RACES THE STORM OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...NEVER STRENGTHENS IT ABOVE 60 KT...AND THE OTHER INTENSITY GUIDANCE DOES NOT STRENGTHEN IT MUCH ABOVE 65 KT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE GFDL AND SHIPS MODELS. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 22/0900Z 26.7N 77.3W 40 KT 12HR VT 22/1800Z 27.6N 77.7W 45 KT 24HR VT 23/0600Z 29.0N 77.6W 50 KT 36HR VT 23/1800Z 29.9N 76.8W 55 KT 48HR VT 24/0600Z 30.5N 75.5W 55 KT 72HR VT 25/0600Z 31.5N 73.0W 60 KT 96HR VT 26/0600Z 32.5N 69.0W 60 KT 120HR VT 27/0600Z 34.0N 64.0W 60 KT $$ ** WTPQ32 PGUM 220936 *** TCPPQ2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM BANYAN (07W) ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 8 PM GUAM LST FRI JUL 22 2005 ...TROPICAL STORM BANYAN (07W) CONTINUING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHEAST... NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT. AT 7 PM GUAM LST..0900Z..THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BANYAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.7 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 137.8 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 515 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF GUAM...AND 500 MILES NORTH OF YAP. TROPICAL STORM BANYAN IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST AT 8 MPH. DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...TROPICAL STORM BANYAN IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN NORTHWARD WITH A SLOW INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH. THE LATEST FORECAST FROM THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER CALLS FOR INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM BANYAN MAY REACH TYPHOON INTENSITY BY SUNDAY MORNING. REPEATING THE 7 PM POSITION...16.7 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE AND 137.8 DEGREES EAST LONGITUDE...MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST AT 8 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 MPH. THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 2 AM GUAM LST SATURDAY MORNING. $$ MCELROY ** WTJP31 RJTD 220900 *** WARNING 220900. WARNING VALID 230900. STORM WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0507 BANYAN (0507) 990 HPA AT 16.9N 138.1E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHEAST 10 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 250 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 230900UTC AT 19.9N 137.7E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 220900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0507 BANYAN (0507) ANALYSIS PSTN 220900UTC 16.9N 138.1E FAIR MOVE NE 10KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 040KT 30KT 250NM FORECAST 24HF 230900UTC 19.9N 137.7E 80NM 70% MOVE N 07KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 45HF 240600UTC 22.0N 136.3E 150NM 70% MOVE NNW 08KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 69HF 250600UTC 25.5N 135.0E 220NM 70% MOVE NNW 09KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT = ** WTPQ21 RJTD 220900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0506 NALGAE (0506) ANALYSIS PSTN 220900UTC 30.7N 159.0E FAIR MOVE NNE 09KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT 30KT 230NM NORTHEAST 150NM SOUTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 230900UTC 31.7N 161.2E 90NM 70% MOVE ENE SLOWLY PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 45HF 240600UTC 33.0N 163.0E 160NM 70% MOVE ENE 07KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT 69HF 250600UTC 34.5N 166.6E 290NM 70% MOVE ENE 08KT PRES 992HPA MXWD 045KT = ** WTJP32 RJTD 220900 *** WARNING 220900. WARNING VALID 230900. STORM WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0506 NALGAE (0506) 990 HPA AT 30.7N 159.0E FAR OFF EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 09 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 230 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 230900UTC AT 31.7N 161.2E WITH 90 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTCA41 TJSJ 221013 *** TCPSP1 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL FRANKLIN ADVERTENCIA ESPECIAL NUMERO 2 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 8 PM EDT JUEVES 21 DE JULIO DE 2005 ... EL CENTRO DE FRANKLIN MOVIENDOSE AL NOROESTE A TRAVES DE LA ISLA GREAT ABACO EN EL NOROESTE DE LAS BAHAMAS... A LAS 5 AM EDT...0900Z...EL GOBIERNO DE BAHAMAS DESCONTNINUO EL AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA NEW PROVINDENCE Y LAS ISLAS BERRY. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL CONTINUA EN EFECTO PARA EL NOROESTE DE LAS BAHAMAS PARA ELEUTHERA...ABACOS...Y LA ISLA DE GRAND BAHAMA. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL EN LAS AREAS BAJO AVISO EN LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA EN TU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBILIDAD DE VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS EN TIERRA...FAVOR DE MONITOREAR LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR LA OFICINA LOCAL DE METEOROLOGIA. A LAS 5 AM EDT...0900Z... EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL FRANKLIN ESTABA LOCALIZADA CERCA DE LA LATITUD 26.7 NORTE...LONGITUD 77.3 OESTE O SOBRE LA PORCION NORTE DE LA ISLA GREAT ABACO. ESTO ES A UNAS 95 MILLAS...150 KM...AL ESTE DE FREEPORT EN LA ISLA GRAN BAHAMA. FRANKLIN SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NOROESTE A 12 MPH...19 KM/HR. UN GRADUAL GIRO HACIA EL NORTE...CON UNA DISMINMUCION GRADUAL EN LA VELOCIDAD DE TRASLACION...SE ESPERA POR LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. ESTE MOVIMIENTO LLEVARA EL CENTRO DE FRANKLIN AL NORTE DEL NOROESTE DE LAS BAHAMAS TARDE EN EL DIA DE HOY. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS SON DE 45 MPH...75 KM/HR CON RAFAGAS SUPERIORES. ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO SE PRONOSTICA DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. FRANKLIN ES UNA PEQUENA TORMENTA. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 40 MILLAS...65 KM PRINCIPALMENTE AL ESTE DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1009 MB...29.80 PULGADAS. FRANKLIN PUEDE PRODUCIR CANTIDADES DE LLUVIA ENTRE 2 A 4 PULGADAS SOBRE EL NOROESTE DE LAS BAHAMAS EN LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION DE LAS 5 AM...26.7 NORTE...77.3 OESTE. EL MOVIMIENTO HACIA...NOROESTE CERCA DE 12 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS DE 45 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1009 MB. UN BOLETIN INTERMEDIO SERA EMITIDO POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 8 AM...SEGUIDO POR UNO COMPLETO A LAS 11 AM. PRONOSTICADOR BEVEN $$ ** WTCA41 TJSJ 221016 *** TCPSP1 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL FRANKLIN ADVERTENCIA ESPECIAL NUMERO 2 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 8 PM EDT JUEVES 21 DE JULIO DE 2005 ... EL CENTRO DE FRANKLIN MOVIENDOSE AL NOROESTE A TRAVES DE LA ISLA GREAT ABACO EN EL NOROESTE DE LAS BAHAMAS... A LAS 5 AM EDT...0900Z...EL GOBIERNO DE BAHAMAS DESCONTINUO EL AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA NEW PROVINDENCE Y LAS ISLAS BERRY. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL CONTINUA EN EFECTO PARA EL NOROESTE DE LAS BAHAMAS PARA ELEUTHERA...ABACOS...Y LA ISLA DE GRAND BAHAMA. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL EN LAS AREAS BAJO AVISO EN LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA EN SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBILIDAD DE VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS EN TIERRA...FAVOR DE MONITOREAR LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR LA OFICINA LOCAL DE METEOROLOGIA. A LAS 5 AM EDT...0900Z... EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL FRANKLIN FUE LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 26.7 NORTE...LONGITUD 77.3 OESTE O SOBRE LA PORCION NORTE DE LA ISLA GREAT ABACO. ESTO ES A UNAS 95 MILLAS...150 KM...AL ESTE DE FREEPORT EN LA ISLA GRAN BAHAMA. FRANKLIN SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NOROESTE A 12 MPH...19 KM/HR. UN GRADUAL GIRO HACIA EL NORTE...CON UNA DISMINMUCION GRADUAL EN LA VELOCIDAD DE TRASLACION...SE ESPERA POR LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. ESTE MOVIMIENTO LLEVARA EL CENTRO DE FRANKLIN AL NORTE DEL NOROESTE DE LAS BAHAMAS TARDE EN EL DIA DE HOY. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS SON DE 45 MPH...75 KM/HR CON RAFAGAS SUPERIORES. ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO SE PRONOSTICA DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. FRANKLIN ES UNA PEQUENA TORMENTA. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 40 MILLAS...65 KM PRINCIPALMENTE AL ESTE DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1009 MB...29.80 PULGADAS. FRANKLIN PUEDE PRODUCIR CANTIDADES DE LLUVIA ENTRE 2 A 4 PULGADAS SOBRE EL NOROESTE DE LAS BAHAMAS EN LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION DE LAS 5 AM...26.7 NORTE...77.3 OESTE. EL MOVIMIENTO HACIA...NOROESTE CERCA DE 12 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS DE 45 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1009 MB. UN BOLETIN INTERMEDIO SERA EMITIDO POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 8 AM...SEGUIDO POR UNO COMPLETO A LAS 11 AM. PRONOSTICADOR BEVEN $$ ** WTNT31 KNHC 221152 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM EDT FRI JUL 22 2005 ...FRANKLIN MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS GREAT ABACO ISLAND IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS FOR ELEUTHERA... THE ABACOS... AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 8 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.4 WEST OR OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND. THIS IS ALSO ABOUT 80 MILES ... 130 KM...EAST OF FREEPORT ON GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND. FRANKLIN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH...WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED... IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION WOULD KEEP THE CENTER OF FRANKLIN MOVING PARALLEL TO THE FLORIDA EAST COAST. HOWEVER...SINCE FRANLIN IS A SMALL TROPICAL STORM...SOME ERRATIC MOTION IS POSSIBLE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH... 75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES... 65 KM MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES. FRANKLIN MAY PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. REPEATING THE 8 AM EDT POSITION...26.8 N... 77.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM EDT. FORECASTER STEWART $$