** WTNT31 KNHC 220001 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM EDT THU JUL 21 2005 ...SIXTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE 2005 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON FORMS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS FOR ELEUTHERA... NEW PROVIDENCE... THE BERRY ISLANDS... THE ABACOS... AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. FRANKLIN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH ...22 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION...WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED AND ARE NEAR 45 MPH... 75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES ... 45 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES. FRANKLIN COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. REPEATING THE 8 PM EDT POSITION...25.8 N... 76.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM EDT. FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTSR20 WSSS 211800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTNT41 KNHC 220005 *** TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM EDT THU JUL 21 2005 THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED TO UPDATE THE INITIAL AND FORECAST INTENSITY OF TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN. DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS AT LEAST 40 KT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS INCREASED DURING THE FIRST 48 HOURS BUT REMAINS 60 KT AT DAYS THREE THROUGH FIVE. INITIAL MOTION IS 310/12... AND THE TRACK FORECAST REMAINS THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. FORECASTER KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 22/0000Z 25.8N 76.0W 40 KT 12HR VT 22/0600Z 26.3N 76.8W 45 KT 24HR VT 22/1800Z 27.5N 77.5W 50 KT 36HR VT 23/0600Z 28.5N 77.6W 55 KT 48HR VT 23/1800Z 29.0N 77.0W 55 KT 72HR VT 24/1800Z 29.0N 76.5W 60 KT 96HR VT 25/1800Z 28.5N 76.0W 60 KT 120HR VT 26/1800Z 28.0N 76.5W 60 KT $$ ** WTNT31 KNHC 220009 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 2... CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM EDT THU JUL 21 2005 ...CORRECTED TO ADD INITIAL POSITION... ...SIXTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE 2005 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON FORMS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS FOR ELEUTHERA... NEW PROVIDENCE... THE BERRY ISLANDS... THE ABACOS... AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 8 PM EDT... 0000Z... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.8 NORTH... LONGITUDE 76.0 WEST OR ABOUT 50 MILES... 80 KM... EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE ISLAND OF ELEUTHERA IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. FRANKLIN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH ...22 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION...WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED AND ARE NEAR 45 MPH... 75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES ... 45 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES. FRANKLIN COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. REPEATING THE 8 PM EDT POSITION...25.8 N... 76.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM EDT. FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT21 KNHC 212355 *** TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062005 0000Z FRI JUL 22 2005 A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS FOR ELEUTHERA... NEW PROVIDENCE... THE BERRY ISLANDS... THE ABACOS... AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.8N 76.0W AT 22/0000Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 25NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.8N 76.0W AT 22/0000Z AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 75.0W FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 26.3N 76.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 27.5N 77.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 35NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 28.5N 77.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 70 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 45NE 45SE 35SW 45NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 29.0N 77.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 70 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 55NE 55SE 55SW 55NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 29.0N 76.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT... 65NE 65SE 65SW 65NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 28.5N 76.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 28.0N 76.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.8N 76.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0300Z FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT71 KNHC 212357 *** SPFAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN SPECIAL PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM EDT THU JUL 21 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 8 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF FRANKLIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.0 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2PM EDT SUN JUL 24 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 27.5N 77.5W 55 X X X 55 CHARLESTON SC X X 2 8 10 28.5N 77.6W 40 X X X 40 MYRTLE BEACH SC X X 1 8 9 29.0N 77.0W 32 1 1 X 34 WILMINGTON NC X X X 7 7 MYSM 241N 745W 99 X X X 99 MOREHEAD CITY NC X X X 5 5 MYEG 235N 758W X X X 2 2 CAPE HATTERAS NC X X X 3 3 MYAK 241N 776W X X X 2 2 MARCO ISLAND FL X 1 1 2 4 MYNN 251N 775W 25 X X X 25 FT MYERS FL X 2 1 2 5 MYGF 266N 787W 31 X X X 31 VENICE FL X 1 1 3 5 MIAMI FL 4 1 1 2 8 TAMPA FL X 1 2 4 7 W PALM BEACH FL 10 3 1 1 15 CEDAR KEY FL X X 2 5 7 FT PIERCE FL 7 7 1 1 16 ST MARKS FL X X X 4 4 COCOA BEACH FL 3 9 2 2 16 APALACHICOLA FL X X X 3 3 DAYTONA BEACH FL X 6 5 3 14 PANAMA CITY FL X X X 2 2 JACKSONVILLE FL X 1 4 6 11 GULF 29N 85W X X X 2 2 SAVANNAH GA X X 2 8 10 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM FRI FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2PM FRI TO 2AM SAT C FROM 2AM SAT TO 2PM SAT D FROM 2PM SAT TO 2PM SUN E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM SUN X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT41 KNHC 220005 *** TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM EDT THU JUL 21 2005 THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED TO UPDATE THE INITIAL AND FORECAST INTENSITY OF TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN. DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS AT LEAST 40 KT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS INCREASED DURING THE FIRST 48 HOURS BUT REMAINS 60 KT AT DAYS THREE THROUGH FIVE. INITIAL MOTION IS 310/12... AND THE TRACK FORECAST REMAINS THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. FORECASTER KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 22/0000Z 25.8N 76.0W 40 KT 12HR VT 22/0600Z 26.3N 76.8W 45 KT 24HR VT 22/1800Z 27.5N 77.5W 50 KT 36HR VT 23/0600Z 28.5N 77.6W 55 KT 48HR VT 23/1800Z 29.0N 77.0W 55 KT 72HR VT 24/1800Z 29.0N 76.5W 60 KT 96HR VT 25/1800Z 28.5N 76.0W 60 KT 120HR VT 26/1800Z 28.0N 76.5W 60 KT $$ ** WTNT31 KNHC 220009 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 2... CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM EDT THU JUL 21 2005 ...CORRECTED TO ADD INITIAL POSITION... ...SIXTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE 2005 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON FORMS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS FOR ELEUTHERA... NEW PROVIDENCE... THE BERRY ISLANDS... THE ABACOS... AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 8 PM EDT... 0000Z... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.8 NORTH... LONGITUDE 76.0 WEST OR ABOUT 50 MILES... 80 KM... EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE ISLAND OF ELEUTHERA IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. FRANKLIN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH ...22 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION...WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED AND ARE NEAR 45 MPH... 75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES ... 45 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES. FRANKLIN COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. REPEATING THE 8 PM EDT POSITION...25.8 N... 76.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM EDT. FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTCA41 TJSJ 220112 *** TCPSP1 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL FRANKLIN ADVERTENCIA ESPECIAL NUMERO 2 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 8 PM EDT JUEVES 21 DE JULIO DE 2005 ... SE FORMA LA SEXTA TORMENTA TROPICAL DE LA TEMPORADA DE HURACANES 2005... UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA EN EFECTO EMITIDO PARA ELEUTHERA...NEW PROVIDENCE...BERRY ISLANDS...ABACOS...Y GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL EN LAS AREAS BAJO AVISO EN LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA EN TU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBILIDAD DE VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS EN TIERRA...FAVOR DE MONITOREAR LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR LA OFICINA LOCAL DE METEOROLOGIA. A LAS 8 PM CDT...0000Z... EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL FRANKLIN ESTABA LOCALIZADA CERCA DE LA LATITUD 25.8 NORTE...LONGITUD 76.0 OESTE O COMO A 50 MILLAS...80 KM...AL ESTE NORESTE DE LA ISLA DE ELEUTHERA EN EL NOROESTE DE LAS BAHAMAS. FRANKLIN SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 14 MPH...22 KM/HR...Y ESTE MOVIMIENTO...CON UNA DISMINMUCION GRADUAL EN LA VELOCIDAD DE TRASLACION...SE ESPERA POR LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. INFORMACION DEL AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO INIDCA QUE LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 45 MPH...75 KM/HR CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS ALTAS. ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO ES PRONOSTICADO DURANTE LAX PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1009 MB...29.80 PULGADAS. FRANKLIN PUEDE PRODUCIR CANTIDADES DE LLUVIA ENTRE 3 A 5 PULGADAS SOBRE EL NOROESTE DE LAS BAHAMAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION DE LAS 8 PM...25.8 NORTE...76.0 OESTE. EL MOVIMIENTO HACIA...NOROESTE CERCA DE 14 MPH. VIEMTOS SOSTENIDOS DE 35 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1009 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES LAS 11 PM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR KNABB $$ ** WTPQ30 RJTD 220000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 2 FOR TS 0507 BANYAN (0507) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 220000 UTC IS FAIR. TS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TS WILL MOVE NORTH FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TS WILL BE GRADED UP TO STS WITHIN 24 HOURS. TS WILL DEVELOP BECAUSE CLOUD FEATURES OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW HAVE BECOME DISTINCT AND CYCLONE WILL STAY IN HIGH SST AREA. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 3.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTKO20 RKSL 220000 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 2 NAME TS 0507 BANYAN ANALYSIS POSITION 220000UTC 15.8N 137.3E MOVEMENT N 10KT PRES/VMAX 990HPA 41KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 230000UTC 17.7N 137.1E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 980HPA 58KT 48HR POSITION 240000UTC 20.6N 136.8E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 970HPA 66KT 72HR POSITION 250000UTC 24.1N 135.8E WITHIN 215NM PRES/VMAX 960HPA 76KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPQ31 RJTD 220000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 5 FOR TS 0506 NALGAE (0506) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 220000 UTC IS FAIR. TS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TS WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN MOVE TO NOR TH-NORTHEAST. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TS WILL BE GRADED UP TO STS WITHIN 24 HOURS. TS WILL DEVELOP BECAUSE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE NEAR CYCLONE CENTER H AS BECOME COLDER. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 3.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPN32 PGTW 220300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 07W (BANYAN) WARNING NR 003 UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 220000Z --- NEAR 15.6N 137.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 010 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 15.6N 137.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 221200Z --- 17.0N 137.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 230000Z --- 18.7N 138.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 231200Z --- 20.6N 138.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z --- 22.6N 138.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z --- 26.4N 138.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 11 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 260000Z --- 30.6N 140.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 270000Z --- 33.3N 144.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT --- REMARKS: 220300Z POSITION NEAR 15.9N 137.6E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 07W (BANYAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 440 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF GUAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SHIP AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT TS 07W IS A BROAD CIRCULATION WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS AND DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220000Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 220900Z, 221500Z, 222100Z AND 230300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 06W (NALGAE) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN31 PGTW 220300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 06W (NALGAE) WARNING NR 009 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 220000Z --- NEAR 30.0N 158.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 30.0N 158.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 221200Z --- 31.5N 157.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 230000Z --- 32.7N 157.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 231200Z --- 34.0N 157.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z --- 35.5N 157.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 220300Z POSITION NEAR 30.4N 158.2E. TROPICAL STORM 06W (NALGAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 785 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF WAKE ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220000Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 220900Z, 221500Z, 222100Z AND 230300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 07W (BANYAN) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTNT31 KNHC 220247 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT THU JUL 21 2005 ...FRANKLIN VERY NEAR ELEUTHERA AND GREAT ABACO IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS FOR ELEUTHERA... NEW PROVIDENCE... THE BERRY ISLANDS... THE ABACOS... AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.1 NORTH... LONGITUDE 76.3 WEST OR ABOUT 100 MILES... 165 KM... NORTHEAST OF NASSAU IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. FRANKLIN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH ...20 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT... FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH... 75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FRANKLIN IS A SMALL SYSTEM... WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTENDING OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES... 65 KM... MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES. FRANKLIN COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...26.1 N... 76.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM EDT. FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT21 KNHC 220248 *** TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062005 0300Z FRI JUL 22 2005 A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS FOR ELEUTHERA... NEW PROVIDENCE... THE BERRY ISLANDS... THE ABACOS... AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.1N 76.3W AT 22/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 35NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.1N 76.3W AT 22/0300Z AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.8N 76.0W FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 27.2N 77.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 35NE 25SE 15SW 25NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 28.5N 77.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 35NE 35SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 29.5N 77.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 45NE 45SE 35SW 45NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 30.0N 76.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 55NE 55SE 55SW 55NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 30.5N 75.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT... 65NE 65SE 65SW 65NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 31.0N 74.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 31.0N 73.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.1N 76.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT71 KNHC 220248 *** SPFAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT THU JUL 21 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF FRANKLIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.3 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8PM EDT SUN JUL 24 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 28.5N 77.4W 49 X X X 49 CHARLESTON SC X 2 4 6 12 29.5N 77.1W 30 1 X 1 32 MYRTLE BEACH SC X 1 4 7 12 30.0N 76.5W 21 3 1 1 26 WILMINGTON NC X X 3 8 11 MYNN 251N 775W 1 X X 2 3 MOREHEAD CITY NC X X 2 8 10 MYGF 266N 787W 25 X X X 25 CAPE HATTERAS NC X X 1 7 8 MIAMI FL X 1 X 1 2 NORFOLK VA X X X 3 3 W PALM BEACH FL 5 X 1 1 7 FT MYERS FL X X 1 1 2 FT PIERCE FL 7 2 1 1 11 VENICE FL X X 1 1 2 COCOA BEACH FL 7 3 1 1 12 TAMPA FL X 1 1 1 3 DAYTONA BEACH FL 2 6 2 2 12 CEDAR KEY FL X 1 1 2 4 JACKSONVILLE FL X 4 3 4 11 ST MARKS FL X X 1 2 3 SAVANNAH GA X 2 4 5 11 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM FRI FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8PM FRI TO 8AM SAT C FROM 8AM SAT TO 8PM SAT D FROM 8PM SAT TO 8PM SUN E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM SUN X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTPQ32 PGUM 220252 *** TCPPQ2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM 07W (BANYAN) ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 1 PM GUAM LST FRI JUL 22 2005 ...TROPICAL STORM 07W (BANYAN) DRIFTING NORTH-NORTHEAST... NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT. AT 1 PM GUAM LST..0300Z..THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BANYAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.9 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 137.6 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 515 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF GUAM...AND 445 MILES NORTH OF YAP. TROPICAL STORM BANYAN IS DRIFTING NORTH-NORTHEAST AT 6 MPH. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...TROPICAL STORM BANYAN IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE NORTH WITH A SLOW INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH. THE FORECAST IS FOR SLOW INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND IT IS EXPECTED TO REACH TYPHOON INTENSITY BY NOON ON SUNDAY. REPEATING THE 1 PM POSITION...15.9 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE AND 137.6 DEGREES EAST LONGITUDE...MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST AT 6 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 MPH. THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 8 PM GUAM LST. $$ EDSON ** WTNT41 KNHC 220308 *** TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT THU JUL 21 2005 THE LAST REPORTS FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT SHORTLY BEFORE 00Z INDICATED THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE REMAINED 1009 MB... AND MAXIMUM 1000 FT FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS AS STRONG AS 57 KT WERE MEASURED WITHIN A CONVECTIVE BURST RIGHT NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER. THIS WOULD NORMALLY CORRESPOND TO SURFACE WINDS OF ABOUT 45 KT... BUT SINCE THE PRESSURE WAS RELATIVELY HIGH AND THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN REMAINS QUITE DISORGANIZED... WITH DVORAK T NUMBERS AT 2.0 AND 2.5... THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 40 KT. RECON WILL ONCE AGAIN INVESTIGATE FRANKLIN ON FRIDAY MORNING. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 310/11. FRANKLIN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITHIN A RELATIVE WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. IT IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... AND BE WITHIN AN AREA OF WEAK STEERING CURRENTS TO THE SOUTH OF A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH AND TO THE SOUTHEAST OF A BUILDING MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST THE MIDLATITUDE TROUGH TO PROVIDE ENOUGH IMPETUS TOWARD THE EAST TO RECURVE FRANKLIN TOWARD THE OPEN ATLANTIC. HOWEVER... AN ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO IS THAT THE TROUGH WILL BYPASS FRANKLIN AND ALLOW THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. RIDGE TO HALT ITS EXODUS OUT TO SEA AND PERHAPS EVEN EVENTUALLY STEER IT BACK TO THE WEST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE SCENARIOS AND IS A LITTLE FASTER TO THE NORTHEAST THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. FRANKLIN IS LOCATED BETWEEN AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AND AN UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR AXIS WHICH IS IMPARTING SOME WESTERLY SHEAR. HOWEVER... THE SHEAR AXIS IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN... WHICH COULD ALLOW FRANKLIN TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ALONG THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK... THE TROPICAL STORM WOULD REMAIN OVER 27-28C SSTS EVEN LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AND PERHAPS BE IMPACTED BY MODERATE NORTHERLY SHEAR. INTENSIFICATION TO A HURRICANE IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. IF FRANKLIN MOVES MORE QUICKLY OUT TO SEA... THIS WOULD BE UNLIKELY... BUT IF IT BECOMES TRAPPED SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD... THE ENVIRONMENT COULD BECOME FAVORABLE FOR MORE INTENSIFICATION THAN IS CURRENTLY FORECAST. FRANKLIN IS THE EARLIEST SIXTH TROPICAL STORM ON RECORD IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN. FORECASTER KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 22/0300Z 26.1N 76.3W 40 KT 12HR VT 22/1200Z 27.2N 77.3W 45 KT 24HR VT 23/0000Z 28.5N 77.4W 50 KT 36HR VT 23/1200Z 29.5N 77.1W 55 KT 48HR VT 24/0000Z 30.0N 76.5W 55 KT 72HR VT 25/0000Z 30.5N 75.5W 60 KT 96HR VT 26/0000Z 31.0N 74.5W 60 KT 120HR VT 27/0000Z 31.0N 73.5W 60 KT $$ ** WTJP31 RJTD 220300 *** WARNING 220300. WARNING VALID 230300. STORM WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0507 BANYAN (0507) 990 HPA AT 16.0N 137.6E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 07 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 250 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 230300UTC AT 17.9N 137.0E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 220300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0507 BANYAN (0507) ANALYSIS PSTN 220300UTC 16.0N 137.6E FAIR MOVE NNE 07KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 040KT 30KT 250NM FORECAST 24HF 230300UTC 17.9N 137.0E 80NM 70% MOVE NNW SLOWLY PRES 980HPA MXWD 050KT 45HF 240000UTC 20.4N 136.5E 150NM 70% MOVE N 07KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 69HF 250000UTC 23.6N 135.3E 220NM 70% MOVE NNW 08KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT = ** WTJP32 RJTD 220300 *** WARNING 220300. WARNING VALID 230300. STORM WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0506 NALGAE (0506) 992 HPA AT 30.1N 158.8E NORTHEAST OF MINAMITORISIMA MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST SLOWLY. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 230 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 230300UTC AT 31.8N 158.2E WITH 90 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 220300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0506 NALGAE (0506) ANALYSIS PSTN 220300UTC 30.1N 158.8E FAIR MOVE NNE SLOWLY PRES 992HPA MXWD 045KT 30KT 230NM NORTHEAST 150NM SOUTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 230300UTC 31.8N 158.2E 90NM 70% MOVE NNW SLOWLY PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 45HF 240000UTC 33.4N 158.8E 160NM 70% MOVE NNE SLOWLY PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT 69HF 250000UTC 34.7N 160.2E 290NM 70% MOVE NE SLOWLY PRES 992HPA MXWD 045KT = ** WTNT80 EGRR 220513 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 22.07.2005 TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN ANALYSED POSITION : 25.6N 75.6W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 22.07.2005 25.6N 75.6W WEAK 12UTC 22.07.2005 27.2N 76.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 23.07.2005 28.6N 76.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 23.07.2005 29.6N 74.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 24.07.2005 30.4N 72.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 24.07.2005 30.6N 70.5W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 25.07.2005 31.1N 68.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 25.07.2005 30.7N 66.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 26.07.2005 31.3N 64.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 26.07.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 220513 ** WTNT31 KNHC 220541 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM EDT FRI JUL 22 2005 ...CENTER OF FRANKLIN NEAR GREAT ABACO IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS FOR ELEUTHERA... NEW PROVIDENCE... THE BERRY ISLANDS... THE ABACOS... AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 2 AM EDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.5 NORTH... LONGITUDE 76.9 WEST OR NEAR GREAT ABACO ISLAND IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. THIS IS ALSO ABOUT 105 MILES... 170 KM... NORTH-NORTHEAST OF NASSAU IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. FRANKLIN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH ...19 KM/HR... AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH... 75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FRANKLIN IS A SMALL SYSTEM... WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTENDING OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES... 65 KM... MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES. FRANKLIN COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. REPEATING THE 2 AM EDT POSITION...26.5 N... 76.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM EDT. FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT80 EGRR 220546 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 22.07.2005 TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN ANALYSED POSITION : 25.6N 75.6W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 22.07.2005 25.6N 75.6W WEAK 12UTC 22.07.2005 27.2N 76.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 23.07.2005 28.6N 76.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 23.07.2005 29.6N 74.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 24.07.2005 30.4N 72.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 24.07.2005 30.6N 70.5W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 25.07.2005 31.1N 68.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 25.07.2005 30.7N 66.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 26.07.2005 31.3N 64.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 26.07.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+36 : 14.4S 171.9E VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 23.07.2005 14.4S 171.9E WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 24.07.2005 17.7S 176.9E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 24.07.2005 21.2S 179.4W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 25.07.2005 24.7S 174.3W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 12UTC 25.07.2005 26.4S 170.3W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 26.07.2005 26.4S 169.6W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 26.07.2005 26.4S 167.1W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 27.07.2005 26.0S 165.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 27.07.2005 25.0S 162.1W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 28.07.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 220546