** WTJP22 RJTD 211800 *** WARNING 211800. WARNING VALID 221800. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. STORM WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0506 NALGAE (0506) 992 HPA AT 29.3N 158.8E NORTHEAST OF MINAMITORISIMA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 11 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 230 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 221800UTC AT 31.7N 158.5E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 231800UTC AT 32.9N 160.3E WITH 160 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 241800UTC AT 34.1N 162.4E WITH 290 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 211800 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0506 NALGAE (0506) ANALYSIS PSTN 211800UTC 29.3N 158.8E FAIR MOVE NNW 11KT PRES 992HPA MXWD 045KT 30KT 230NM NORTHEAST 150NM SOUTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 221800UTC 31.7N 158.5E 80NM 70% MOVE N 06KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 48HF 231800UTC 32.9N 160.3E 160NM 70% MOVE NE SLOWLY PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 72HF 241800UTC 34.1N 162.4E 290NM 70% MOVE NE SLOWLY PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 211800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS NALGAE 0506 (0506) INITIAL TIME 211800 UTC 00HR 29.3N 158.9E 990HPA 23M/S 30KTS 250KM P12HR NNW 15KM/H P+24HR 32.4N 158.7E 985HPA 25M/S P+48HR 33.5N 161.0E 990HPA 23M/S P+72HR 34.5N 163.0E 995HPA 18M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 211800 *** WARNING 211800. WARNING VALID 221800. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. GALE WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0507 BANYAN (0507) UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 992 HPA AT 15.0N 137.2E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTH 06 KNOTS. POSITION POOR. MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 221800UTC AT 17.1N 136.7E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 231800UTC AT 20.1N 136.1E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 241800UTC AT 23.2N 135.5E WITH 220 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 211800 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0507 BANYAN (0507) UPGRADED FROM TD ANALYSIS PSTN 211800UTC 15.0N 137.2E POOR MOVE N 06KT PRES 992HPA MXWD 035KT 30KT 120NM FORECAST 24HF 221800UTC 17.1N 136.7E 80NM 70% MOVE NNW 06KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 045KT 48HF 231800UTC 20.1N 136.1E 150NM 70% MOVE NNW 07KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 72HF 241800UTC 23.2N 135.5E 220NM 70% MOVE NNW 07KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT = ** WTKO20 RKSL 211800 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 1 NAME TS 0507 BANYAN ANALYSIS POSITION 211800UTC 15.0N 137.2E MOVEMENT N 6KT PRES/VMAX 992HPA 35KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 221800UTC 17.0N 136.7E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 985HPA 45KT 48HR POSITION 231800UTC 20.1N 136.1E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 980HPA 54KT 72HR POSITION 241800UTC 23.3N 135.5E WITHIN 215NM PRES/VMAX 970HPA 64KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPQ20 BABJ 211800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS BANYAN 0507 (0507) INITIAL TIME 211800 UTC 00HR 15.0N 137.1E 995HPA 18M/S 30KTS 250KM P12HR NNW 10KM/H P+24HR 17.8N 136.6E 985HPA 25M/S P+48HR 20.8N 136.4E 980HPA 30M/S P+72HR 24.0N 135.6E 970HPA 35M/S= ** WTPN32 PGTW 212100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W (BANYAN) WARNING NR 002 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 211800Z --- NEAR 15.0N 137.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 020 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 15.0N 137.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z --- 16.2N 137.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 17.7N 138.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 19.2N 138.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 20.7N 138.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 25.6N 137.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 212100Z POSITION NEAR 15.3N 137.5E. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 07W (BANYAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 440 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF GUAM, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211800Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 220300Z, 220900Z, 221500Z AND 222100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 06W (NALGAE) WARN- INGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN31 PGTW 212100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 06W (NALGAE) WARNING NR 008 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 211800Z --- NEAR 29.3N 158.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 29.3N 158.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z --- 30.7N 157.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 32.1N 157.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 33.4N 157.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 34.8N 157.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 37.6N 159.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 212100Z POSITION NEAR 29.7N 158.5E. TROPICAL STORM 06W (NALGAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 740 NM NORTHWEST OF WAKE ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTHWEST AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211800Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 220300Z, 220900Z, 221500Z AND 222100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W (BANYAN) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTNT21 KNHC 212107 *** TCMAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062005 2100Z THU JUL 21 2005 AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ELEUTHERA...NEW PROVIDENCE...BERRY ISLANDS...ABACOS...AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.3N 75.4W AT 21/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.3N 75.4W AT 21/2100Z AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 75.0W FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 26.3N 76.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 27.5N 77.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 35NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 28.5N 77.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 45NE 45SE 35SW 45NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 29.0N 77.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 55NE 55SE 55SW 55NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 29.0N 76.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT... 65NE 65SE 65SW 65NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 28.5N 76.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 28.0N 76.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.3N 75.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0300Z FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT71 KNHC 212108 *** SPFAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT THU JUL 21 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE DEPRESSION CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.4 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2PM EDT SUN JUL 24 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 27.5N 77.5W 53 X X X 53 CHARLESTON SC X X 1 8 9 28.5N 77.6W 37 1 X X 38 MYRTLE BEACH SC X X 1 6 7 29.0N 77.0W 30 1 1 X 32 WILMINGTON NC X X X 5 5 MYSM 241N 745W 99 X X X 99 MOREHEAD CITY NC X X X 4 4 MYAK 241N 776W X X X 2 2 CAPE HATTERAS NC X X X 2 2 MYNN 251N 775W 25 X 1 X 26 MARCO ISLAND FL X 1 X 3 4 MYGF 266N 787W 30 X X X 30 FT MYERS FL X 2 X 3 5 MIAMI FL 3 2 X 2 7 VENICE FL X 1 1 3 5 W PALM BEACH FL 9 3 X 2 14 TAMPA FL X 2 2 3 7 FT PIERCE FL 8 5 1 2 16 CEDAR KEY FL X 1 2 4 7 COCOA BEACH FL 3 8 2 3 16 ST MARKS FL X X 1 3 4 DAYTONA BEACH FL X 7 4 4 15 APALACHICOLA FL X X X 2 2 JACKSONVILLE FL X 2 4 5 11 PANAMA CITY FL X X X 2 2 SAVANNAH GA X X 2 7 9 GULF 29N 85W X X X 2 2 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM FRI FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2PM FRI TO 2AM SAT C FROM 2AM SAT TO 2PM SAT D FROM 2PM SAT TO 2PM SUN E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM SUN X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT31 KNHC 212112 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT THU JUL 21 2005 ...AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS THAT THE SIXTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE SEASON HAS FORMED NEAR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS... AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ELEUTHERA...NEW PROVIDENCE...BERRY ISLANDS...ABACOS...AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 75.4 WEST OR ABOUT 125 MILES... 205 KM... EAST OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH ...20 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION...WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TONIGHT OR. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES. THE DEPRESSION MAY PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...25.3 N... 75.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM EDT. FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT31 KNHC 212120 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX ADVISORY NUMBER 1...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT THU JUL 21 2005 CORRECTED TO COMPLETE INTENSITY PARAGRAPH ...AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS THAT THE SIXTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE SEASON HAS FORMED NEAR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS... AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ELEUTHERA...NEW PROVIDENCE...BERRY ISLANDS...ABACOS...AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 75.4 WEST OR ABOUT 125 MILES... 205 KM... EAST OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH ...20 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION...WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TONIGHT OR TOMORROW. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES. THE DEPRESSION MAY PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...25.3 N... 75.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM EDT. FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT41 KNHC 212134 *** TCDAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT THU JUL 21 2005 AIR FORCE RECON AIRCRAFT HAS BEEN INVESTIGATING THE STRONG TROPICAL WAVE JUST EAST OF THE BAHAMAS AND HAVE FOUND WINDS THAT SUPPORT AT LEAST A 30-KT TROPICAL DEPRESSION...AND ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN INITIATED ON TD-6. CONVECTION HAS DECREASED SOMEWHAT NEAR THE CENTER OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT THIS IS TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE DAY. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE DURING THE DAY...INCLUDING THE RESTRICTED SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/11...BASED ON THE PAST 3 HOURS OF SATELLITE POSITIONS. THE FORECAST TRACK IS SOMEWHAT PROBLEMATIC. THE GLOBAL MODELS TAKE THE SURFACE TO 850 MB CIRCULATION NORTHWARD AND THEN RECURVE IT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. HOWEVER...ALL OF THE MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT THE MID-LEVEL/500 MB CIRCULATION WILL MOVE INTO THE RIDGE AXIS AND STALL IN ABOUT 48 HOURS AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES NORTHEAST OF THE DEPRESSION AND ALLOWS THE RIDGE TO BUILD BACK IN TO THE WEST. AFTER THAT...SOME OF THE MODELS MEANDER THE SYSTEM SLOWLY EAST OR SOUTHWARD...WHILE THE GFS AND GFDL MODELS TAKE THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD FLORIDA. THE MEDIUM AND DEEP BAM MODELS ACTUALLY TAKE THE DEPRESSION SLOWLY WESTWARD AFTER 48 HOURS ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. GIVEN THE LARGE SPREAD IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE...WHICH TYPICALLY SUGGESTS SLOW MOTION...THE FORECAST TRACK SHOWS A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH AFTER 24 HOURS AND THEN TURNS THE CYCLONE SLOWLY EASTWARD AND MAKING A SMALL CLOCKWISE LOOP WELL EAST OF THE CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST. THE WATER AHEAD OF THE DEPRESSION IS QUITE WARM...AROUND 29C...AND THE SHEAR IS FORECAST REMAIN LOW WITH A FAVORABLE OUTFLOW PATTERN FOR THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. THEREFORE...THE DEPRESSION COULD REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH WITHIN 48 TO 72 HOURS. NOTE...THE AIRCRAFT HAS JUST REPORTED AT 2114Z FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 48 KT...WHICH WOULD NORMALLY SUPPORT UPGRADING THE DEPRESSION TO A TROPICAL STORM. HOWEVER...CONVECTION HAS BEEN WEAKENING AND WE WOULD PREFER TO SEE DEEP CONVECTION PERSIST BEFORE UPGRADING THIS SYSTEM TO A TROPICAL STORM. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 21/2100Z 25.3N 75.4W 30 KT 12HR VT 22/0600Z 26.3N 76.8W 35 KT 24HR VT 22/1800Z 27.5N 77.5W 40 KT 36HR VT 23/0600Z 28.5N 77.6W 45 KT 48HR VT 23/1800Z 29.0N 77.0W 50 KT 72HR VT 24/1800Z 29.0N 76.5W 60 KT 96HR VT 25/1800Z 28.5N 76.0W 60 KT 120HR VT 26/1800Z 28.0N 76.5W 60 KT $$ ** WTCA41 TJSJ 212137 *** TCPSP1 BOLETIN DEPRESION TROPICAL SEIS ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 1 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT JUEVES 21 DE JULIO DE 2005 ...AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO ENCUENTRA QUE LA SEXTA DEPRESION TROPICAL DE LA TEMPORADA SE FORMA CERCA DE LAS BAHAMAS CENTRALES... A LAS 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...EL GOBIERNO DE LAS BAHAMAS HA EMITIDO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA ELEUTHERA...NEW PROVIDENCE...BERRY ISLANDS...ABACOS...Y GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL EN LAS AREAS BAJO AVISO EN LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA EN TU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBILIDAD DE VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS EN TIERRA...FAVOR DE MONITOREAR LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR LA OFICINA LOCAL DE METEOROLOGIA. A LAS 5 PM CDT...2100Z... EL CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL UNO ESTABA LOCALIZADA CERCA DE LA LATITUD 25.3 NORTE...LONGITUD 75.4 OESTE O CERCA DE 125 MILLAS...205 KM...AL ESTE DEL NOROESTE DE LAS BAHAMAS. LA DEPRESION SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 13 MPH...20 KM/HR...Y ESTE MOVIMIENTO...CON UNA DISMINMUCION GRADUAL EN LA VELOCIDAD DE TRASLACION...SE ESPERA POR LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS ALTAS. ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO ES PRONOSTICADO DURANTE LAX PROXIMAS 24 HORAS...Y LA DEPRESION PUDIERA CONVERTIRSE EN TORMENTA TROPICAL TARDE ESTA NOCHE O MANANA. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1009 MB...29.80 PULGADAS. LA DEPRESION PUEDE PRODUCIR CANTIDADES DE LLUVIA ENTRE 3 A 5 PULGADAS SOBRE EL NOROESTE DE LAS BAHAMAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION DE LAS 5 PM...25.3 NORTE...75.4 OESTE. EL MOVIMIENTO HACIA...OESTE-NOROESTE CERCA DE 13 MPH. VIEMTOS SOSTENIDOS DE 35 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1009 MB. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 8 PM EDT SEGUIDO POR UNA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 11 PM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR STEWART $$ ** WTJP32 RJTD 212100 *** WARNING 212100. WARNING VALID 222100. STORM WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0506 NALGAE (0506) 992 HPA AT 29.7N 158.5E NORTHNORTHEAST OF MINAMITORISIMA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 10 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 230 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 222100UTC AT 31.6N 158.1E WITH 90 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 212100 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0506 NALGAE (0506) ANALYSIS PSTN 212100UTC 29.7N 158.5E FAIR MOVE NNW 10KT PRES 992HPA MXWD 045KT 30KT 230NM NORTHEAST 150NM SOUTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 222100UTC 31.6N 158.1E 90NM 70% MOVE NNW SLOWLY PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 45HF 231800UTC 32.9N 160.3E 160NM 70% MOVE NE SLOWLY PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 69HF 241800UTC 34.1N 162.4E 290NM 70% MOVE NE SLOWLY PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT = ** WTPQ32 PGUM 212157 *** TCPPQ2 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 8 AM GUAM LST FRI JUL 22 2005 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W (BANYAN) DRIFTING NORTH-NORTHEAST... NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT. AT 7 AM GUAM LST..2100Z..THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.3 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 137.5 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 500 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF GUAM...AND 405 MILES NORTH OF YAP. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W IS DRIFTING NORTH-NORTHEAST AT 3 MPH. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE NORTH WITH A SLOW INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35 MPH. SLOW INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. REPEATING THE 7 AM POSITION...15.3 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE AND 137.5 DEGREES EAST LONGITUDE...MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST AT 3 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 MPH. THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 2 PM GUAM LST. $$ MIDDLEBROOKE ** WTPQ32 PGUM 212157 *** TCPPQ2 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 8 AM GUAM LST FRI JUL 22 2005 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W (BANYAN) DRIFTING NORTH-NORTHEAST... NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT. AT 7 AM GUAM LST..2100Z..THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.3 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 137.5 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 500 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF GUAM...AND 405 MILES NORTH OF YAP. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W IS DRIFTING NORTH-NORTHEAST AT 3 MPH. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE NORTH WITH A SLOW INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35 MPH. SLOW INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. REPEATING THE 7 AM POSITION...15.3 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE AND 137.5 DEGREES EAST LONGITUDE...MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST AT 3 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 MPH. THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 2 PM GUAM LST. $$ MIDDLEBROOKE ** WTPQ20 RJTD 212100 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0507 BANYAN (0507) ANALYSIS PSTN 212100UTC 15.4N 137.2E POOR MOVE N 07KT PRES 992HPA MXWD 035KT 30KT 180NM SOUTHEAST 140NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 222100UTC 17.5N 136.5E 80NM 70% MOVE NNW SLOWLY PRES 985HPA MXWD 045KT 45HF 231800UTC 20.1N 136.1E 150NM 70% MOVE NNW 07KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 69HF 241800UTC 23.2N 135.5E 220NM 70% MOVE NNW 07KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT = ** WTNT61 KNHC 212256 *** TCUAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 655 PM EDT THU JUL 21 2005 AT ABOUT 630 PM EDT... 2230Z... DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATED THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS IN TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX HAD INCREASED TO 40 MPH. THEREFORE THE SYSTEM IS BEING UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN. DETAILS WILL FOLLOW IN A SPECIAL ADVISORY TO BE ISSUED BY 8 PM EDT... 0000Z. FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT21 KNHC 212355 *** TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062005 0000Z FRI JUL 22 2005 A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS FOR ELEUTHERA... NEW PROVIDENCE... THE BERRY ISLANDS... THE ABACOS... AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.8N 76.0W AT 22/0000Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 25NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.8N 76.0W AT 22/0000Z AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 75.0W FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 26.3N 76.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 27.5N 77.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 35NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 28.5N 77.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 70 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 45NE 45SE 35SW 45NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 29.0N 77.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 70 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 55NE 55SE 55SW 55NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 29.0N 76.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT... 65NE 65SE 65SW 65NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 28.5N 76.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 28.0N 76.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.8N 76.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0300Z FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT71 KNHC 212357 *** SPFAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN SPECIAL PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM EDT THU JUL 21 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 8 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF FRANKLIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.0 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2PM EDT SUN JUL 24 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 27.5N 77.5W 55 X X X 55 CHARLESTON SC X X 2 8 10 28.5N 77.6W 40 X X X 40 MYRTLE BEACH SC X X 1 8 9 29.0N 77.0W 32 1 1 X 34 WILMINGTON NC X X X 7 7 MYSM 241N 745W 99 X X X 99 MOREHEAD CITY NC X X X 5 5 MYEG 235N 758W X X X 2 2 CAPE HATTERAS NC X X X 3 3 MYAK 241N 776W X X X 2 2 MARCO ISLAND FL X 1 1 2 4 MYNN 251N 775W 25 X X X 25 FT MYERS FL X 2 1 2 5 MYGF 266N 787W 31 X X X 31 VENICE FL X 1 1 3 5 MIAMI FL 4 1 1 2 8 TAMPA FL X 1 2 4 7 W PALM BEACH FL 10 3 1 1 15 CEDAR KEY FL X X 2 5 7 FT PIERCE FL 7 7 1 1 16 ST MARKS FL X X X 4 4 COCOA BEACH FL 3 9 2 2 16 APALACHICOLA FL X X X 3 3 DAYTONA BEACH FL X 6 5 3 14 PANAMA CITY FL X X X 2 2 JACKSONVILLE FL X 1 4 6 11 GULF 29N 85W X X X 2 2 SAVANNAH GA X X 2 8 10 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM FRI FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2PM FRI TO 2AM SAT C FROM 2AM SAT TO 2PM SAT D FROM 2PM SAT TO 2PM SUN E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM SUN X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER KNABB $$