** WTSR20 WSSS 210600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 211200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS NALGAE 0506 (0506) INITIAL TIME 211200 UTC 00HR 28.3N 159.4E 990HPA 23M/S 30KTS 250KM P+24HR 31.2N 156.6E 985HPA 25M/S P+48HR 35.0N 155.0E 985HPA 25M/S P+72HR 38.0N 155.7E 990HPA 20M/S= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 211200 CCA *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS NALGAE 0506 (0506) INITIAL TIME 211200 UTC 00HR 28.3N 159.4E 990HPA 23M/S 30KTS 250KM P12HR NNW 20KM/H P+24HR 31.2N 156.6E 985HPA 25M/S P+48HR 35.0N 155.0E 985HPA 25M/S P+72HR 38.0N 155.7E 990HPA 20M/S= ** WTJP22 RJTD 211200 *** WARNING 211200. WARNING VALID 221200. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. STORM WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0506 NALGAE (0506) 992 HPA AT 28.3N 159.4E NORTHEAST OF MINAMITORISIMA MOVING NORTHWEST 11 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 230 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 221200UTC AT 31.6N 158.8E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 231200UTC AT 33.0N 159.6E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 241200UTC AT 33.8N 161.4E WITH 270 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 211200 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0506 NALGAE (0506) ANALYSIS PSTN 211200UTC 28.3N 159.4E FAIR MOVE NW 11KT PRES 992HPA MXWD 045KT 30KT 230NM NORTHEAST 150NM SOUTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 221200UTC 31.6N 158.8E 80NM 70% MOVE N 08KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 48HF 231200UTC 33.0N 159.6E 150NM 70% MOVE NNE SLOWLY PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 72HF 241200UTC 33.8N 161.4E 270NM 70% MOVE ENE SLOWLY PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT = ** WTPQ20 RJTD 211200 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TD ANALYSIS PSTN 211200UTC 14.4N 137.2E POOR MOVE NNW 07KT PRES 994HPA MXWD 030KT FORECAST 24HF 221200UTC 17.1N 137.8E 150NM 70% MOVE N 06KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 045KT = ** WTNT45 KNHC 211423 *** TCDAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER 44 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT THU JUL 21 2005 SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM MEXICO SUGGEST THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF EMILY HAS SLOWED DOWN CONSIDERABLY ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS...WHILE THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS HAVE CONTINUED WESTWARD. NEARBY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE PRESSURES CONTINUE TO RISE AND WINDS ARE RUNNING ABOUT 15-20 KT...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS DECREASED TO 25 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 270/02. THE WELL-DEFINED MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WESTWARD AND REACH THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN 110W AND 112W LONGITUDE IN 36-48 HOURS AND MOVE ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA IN ABOUT 72 HOURS. NO REGENERATION IS EXPECTED OVER THE EAST PACIFIC OWING TO THE COLD WATER THAT LIES WEST OF BAJA. WHILE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE...RADAR IMAGERY FROM BROWNSVILLE TEXAS INDICATES A PERSISTENT BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT LIES ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS. SO WHILE EMILY IS NO LONGER TECHNICALLY A TROPICAL CYCLONE...SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS TO NEAR 8 INCHES...WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AS DEEP MOIST TROPICAL AIR COMES IN FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLOWS UPSLOPE TOWARD THE MOUNTAINS. THERE IS A HIGH POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES FROM THIS DECAYING SYSTEM. THIS WILL BE THE FINALLY ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 21/1500Z 25.0N 101.2W 25 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND 12HR VT 22/0000Z 25.0N 101.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW INLAND 24HR VT 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED INLAND $$ ** WTNT25 KNHC 211423 *** TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EMILY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 44 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052005 1500Z THU JUL 21 2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 101.2W AT 21/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 101.2W AT 21/1500Z AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 101.1W FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 25.0N 101.5W...REMNANT LOW INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED INLAND THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT45 KNHC 211423 *** TCDAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER 44 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT THU JUL 21 2005 SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM MEXICO SUGGEST THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF EMILY HAS SLOWED DOWN CONSIDERABLY ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS...WHILE THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS HAVE CONTINUED WESTWARD. NEARBY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE PRESSURES CONTINUE TO RISE AND WINDS ARE RUNNING ABOUT 15-20 KT...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS DECREASED TO 25 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 270/02. THE WELL-DEFINED MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WESTWARD AND REACH THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN 110W AND 112W LONGITUDE IN 36-48 HOURS AND MOVE ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA IN ABOUT 72 HOURS. NO REGENERATION IS EXPECTED OVER THE EAST PACIFIC OWING TO THE COLD WATER THAT LIES WEST OF BAJA. WHILE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE...RADAR IMAGERY FROM BROWNSVILLE TEXAS INDICATES A PERSISTENT BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT LIES ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS. SO WHILE EMILY IS NO LONGER TECHNICALLY A TROPICAL CYCLONE...SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS TO NEAR 8 INCHES...WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AS DEEP MOIST TROPICAL AIR COMES IN FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLOWS UPSLOPE TOWARD THE MOUNTAINS. THERE IS A HIGH POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES FROM THIS DECAYING SYSTEM. THIS WILL BE THE FINALLY ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 21/1500Z 25.0N 101.2W 25 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND 12HR VT 22/0000Z 25.0N 101.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW INLAND 24HR VT 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED INLAND $$ ** WTNT45 KNHC 211423 *** TCDAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER 44 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT THU JUL 21 2005 SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM MEXICO SUGGEST THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF EMILY HAS SLOWED DOWN CONSIDERABLY ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS...WHILE THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS HAVE CONTINUED WESTWARD. NEARBY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE PRESSURES CONTINUE TO RISE AND WINDS ARE RUNNING ABOUT 15-20 KT...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS DECREASED TO 25 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 270/02. THE WELL-DEFINED MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WESTWARD AND REACH THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN 110W AND 112W LONGITUDE IN 36-48 HOURS AND MOVE ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA IN ABOUT 72 HOURS. NO REGENERATION IS EXPECTED OVER THE EAST PACIFIC OWING TO THE COLD WATER THAT LIES WEST OF BAJA. WHILE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE...RADAR IMAGERY FROM BROWNSVILLE TEXAS INDICATES A PERSISTENT BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT LIES ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS. SO WHILE EMILY IS NO LONGER TECHNICALLY A TROPICAL CYCLONE...SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS TO NEAR 8 INCHES...WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AS DEEP MOIST TROPICAL AIR COMES IN FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLOWS UPSLOPE TOWARD THE MOUNTAINS. THERE IS A HIGH POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES FROM THIS DECAYING SYSTEM. THIS WILL BE THE FINALLY ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 21/1500Z 25.0N 101.2W 25 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND 12HR VT 22/0000Z 25.0N 101.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW INLAND 24HR VT 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED INLAND $$ ** WTNT75 KNHC 211424 *** SPFAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EMILY PROBABILITIES NUMBER 44 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 AM CDT THU JUL 21 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE DEPRESSION CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 101.2 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 7AM CDT SUN JUL 24 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 99 X X X 99 99 X X X 99 99 X X X 99 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 7AM FRI FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 7AM FRI TO 7PM FRI C FROM 7PM FRI TO 7AM SAT D FROM 7AM SAT TO 7AM SUN E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 7AM SUN X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTPN31 PGTW 211500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 06W (NALGAE) WARNING NR 007 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 211200Z --- NEAR 28.6N 159.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 28.6N 159.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 220000Z --- 30.2N 158.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 221200Z --- 32.0N 157.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 230000Z --- 33.7N 156.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 231200Z --- 35.2N 156.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 000 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z --- 39.2N 156.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 11 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 251200Z --- 43.7N 157.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 211500Z POSITION NEAR 29.0N 159.3E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 06W (NALGAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 680 NM NORTHWEST OF WAKE ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TS 06W HAS LOST SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211200Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 212100Z, 220300Z, 220900Z AND 221500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 07W WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTNT35 KNHC 211431 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION EMILY ADVISORY NUMBER 44 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 AM CDT THU JUL 21 2005 ...EMILY CONTINUES TO WEAKEN INLAND OVER NORTHERN MEXICO... ...THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING STILL EXISTS... AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EMILY WAS LOCATED INLAND NEAR LATITUDE 25.0 NORTH... LONGITUDE 101.2 WEST OR ABOUT 35 MILES...55 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SALTILLO MEXICO. THE DEPRESSION IS DRIFTING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 2 MPH ... 4 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH... 45 KM/HR. CONTINUED WEAKENING IS FORECAST AND EMILY SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE LATER TODAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES. ALTHOUGH EMILY IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE...THE REMNANT CIRCULATION WILL STILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ADDITIONAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER NORTHERN MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. REPEATING THE 10 AM CDT POSITION...25.0 N...101.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 2 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 30 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB. THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTCA45 TJSJ 211448 *** TCPSP5 BOLETIN DEPRESION TROPICAL EMILY ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 44 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 10 AM CDT JUEVES 21 DE JULIO DE 2005 ...EMILY CONTINUA DEBILITANDOSE SOBRE MEXICO... ...AUN EXISTE LA AMENAZA DE LLUVIA FUERTE E INUNDACIONES... A LAS 10 AM CDT...1500Z...EL CENTRO POCO DEFINIDO DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL EMILY ESTABA LOCALIZADO EN TIERRA CERCA DE LA LATITUD 25.0 NORTE...LONGITUD 101.2 OESTE O COMO A 35 MILLAS...55 KM...AL SUR SUROESTE DE SALTILLO MEXICO. LA DEPRESION SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE CERCA DE 2 MPH...4 KM/HR...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL CONTINUE EN EL DIA DE HOY. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 30 MPH...45 KM/HR. SE PRONOSTICA QUE CONTINUE UN DEBILITAMIENTO Y QUE EMILY SE DISIPE MAS TARDE EN EL DIA DE HOY. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1007 MB...29.74 PULGADAS. AUNQUE SE PRONOSTICA QUE EMILY SE DISIPE COMO CICLON TROPICAL...EL REMANENTE DE LA CIRCULACION SEGUIRA SIENDO CAPAZ DE PRODUCIR ACUMULACIONES DE LLUVIA ADICIONAL DE 3 A 5 PULGADAS SOBRE EL NORTE DE MEXICO...CON CANTIDADES MAXIMAS AISLADAS DE 8 PULGADAS EN LAS MONTANAS. ESTAS LLUVIAS PUDIERAN CAUSAR INUNDACIONES REPENTINAS Y DERRUMBES QUE PUEDEN PONER EN RIESGO LAS VIDAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 10 AM CDT...25.0 NORTE...101.2 OESTE. MOVIENDOSE HACIA EL...OESTE A CERCA DE 2 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...30 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1007 MILIBARAS. ESTA ES LA ULTIMA ADVERTENCIA PUBLICA DE ESTE SISTEMA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES. PRONOSTICADOR STEWART $$ ** WTPN32 PGTW 211500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/210222ZJUL2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W WARNING NR 001 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 211200Z --- NEAR 14.4N 137.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 01 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT REPEAT POSIT: 14.4N 137.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 220000Z --- 14.7N 136.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 221200Z --- 15.6N 137.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 230000Z --- 16.8N 137.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 054 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 048 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 231200Z --- 18.4N 138.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 027 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 026 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 077 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z --- 22.0N 138.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 211500Z POSITION NEAR 14.5N 137.1E. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 07W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 300 NM NORTH OF YAP, HAS REMAINED QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TD 07W IS A LARGE CIRCULATION CHARACTERISTIC OF A MONSOON DEPRESSION AS DEPICTED BY A 210830Z QUIKSCAT PASS. HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM HAS EXHIBITED CONTINUED CONSOLIDATION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211200Z IS 12 FEET. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 210222Z JUL 05 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN22 PGTW 210230). NEXT WARNINGS AT 212100Z, 220300Z, 220900Z AND 221500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 06W (NALGAE) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTCA45 TJSJ 211448 *** TCPSP5 BOLETIN DEPRESION TROPICAL EMILY ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 44 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 10 AM CDT JUEVES 21 DE JULIO DE 2005 ...EMILY CONTINUA DEBILITANDOSE SOBRE MEXICO... ...AUN EXISTE LA AMENAZA DE LLUVIA FUERTE E INUNDACIONES... A LAS 10 AM CDT...1500Z...EL CENTRO POCO DEFINIDO DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL EMILY ESTABA LOCALIZADO EN TIERRA CERCA DE LA LATITUD 25.0 NORTE...LONGITUD 101.2 OESTE O COMO A 35 MILLAS...55 KM...AL SUR SUROESTE DE SALTILLO MEXICO. LA DEPRESION SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE CERCA DE 2 MPH...4 KM/HR...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL CONTINUE EN EL DIA DE HOY. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 30 MPH...45 KM/HR. SE PRONOSTICA QUE CONTINUE UN DEBILITAMIENTO Y QUE EMILY SE DISIPE MAS TARDE EN EL DIA DE HOY. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1007 MB...29.74 PULGADAS. AUNQUE SE PRONOSTICA QUE EMILY SE DISIPE COMO CICLON TROPICAL...EL REMANENTE DE LA CIRCULACION SEGUIRA SIENDO CAPAZ DE PRODUCIR ACUMULACIONES DE LLUVIA ADICIONAL DE 3 A 5 PULGADAS SOBRE EL NORTE DE MEXICO...CON CANTIDADES MAXIMAS AISLADAS DE 8 PULGADAS EN LAS MONTANAS. ESTAS LLUVIAS PUDIERAN CAUSAR INUNDACIONES REPENTINAS Y DERRUMBES QUE PUEDEN PONER EN RIESGO LAS VIDAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 10 AM CDT...25.0 NORTE...101.2 OESTE. MOVIENDOSE HACIA EL...OESTE A CERCA DE 2 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...30 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1007 MILIBARAS. ESTA ES LA ULTIMA ADVERTENCIA PUBLICA DE ESTE SISTEMA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES. PRONOSTICADOR STEWART $$ ** WTPN32 PGTW 211500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/210222ZJUL2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W WARNING NR 001 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 211200Z --- NEAR 14.4N 137.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 01 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT REPEAT POSIT: 14.4N 137.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 220000Z --- 14.7N 136.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 221200Z --- 15.6N 137.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 230000Z --- 16.8N 137.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 054 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 048 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 231200Z --- 18.4N 138.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 027 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 026 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 077 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z --- 22.0N 138.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 211500Z POSITION NEAR 14.5N 137.1E. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 07W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 300 NM NORTH OF YAP, HAS REMAINED QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TD 07W IS A LARGE CIRCULATION CHARACTERISTIC OF A MONSOON DEPRESSION AS DEPICTED BY A 210830Z QUIKSCAT PASS. HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM HAS EXHIBITED CONTINUED CONSOLIDATION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211200Z IS 12 FEET. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 210222Z JUL 05 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN22 PGTW 210230). NEXT WARNINGS AT 212100Z, 220300Z, 220900Z AND 221500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 06W (NALGAE) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTJP32 RJTD 211500 *** WARNING 211500. WARNING VALID 221500. STORM WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0506 NALGAE (0506) 992 HPA AT 28.8N 159.2E NORTHEAST OF MINAMITORISIMA MOVING NORTHWEST 10 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 230 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 221500UTC AT 31.8N 158.6E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 211500 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0506 NALGAE (0506) ANALYSIS PSTN 211500UTC 28.8N 159.2E FAIR MOVE NW 10KT PRES 992HPA MXWD 045KT 30KT 230NM NORTHEAST 150NM SOUTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 221500UTC 31.8N 158.6E 80NM 70% MOVE N 07KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 45HF 231200UTC 33.0N 159.6E 150NM 70% MOVE NNE SLOWLY PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 69HF 241200UTC 33.8N 161.4E 270NM 70% MOVE ENE SLOWLY PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT = ** WTPQ32 PGUM 211601 *** TCPPQ2 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 2 AM GUAM LST FRI JUL 22 2005 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W FORMS NORTH OF YAP... NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT. AT 1 AM GUAM LST..1500Z..THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.5 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 137.1 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 520 MILES WEST OF GUAM...AND 350 MILES NORTH OF YAP. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W IS NEARLY STATIONARY...BUT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN A NORTHWARD DRIFT LATER TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 30 MPH. SLOW INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. REPEATING THE 1 AM POSITION...14.5 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE AND 137.1 DEGREES EAST LONGITUDE...NEARLY STATIONARY WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 MPH. THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 8 AM GUAM LST. $$ MIDDLEBROOKE ** WTPQ20 RJTD 211500 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TD ANALYSIS PSTN 211500UTC 14.7N 137.1E POOR MOVE NNW 08KT PRES 994HPA MXWD 030KT FORECAST 24HF 221500UTC 17.3N 137.8E 150NM 70% MOVE N 06KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 045KT = ** WTNT80 EGRR 211720 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 21.07.2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EMILY ANALYSED POSITION : 26.5N 101.0W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 21.07.2005 26.5N 101.0W WEAK 00UTC 22.07.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 211720