** WTPQ20 BABJ 210600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS NALGAE 0506 (0506) INITIAL TIME 210600 UTC 00HR 27.6N 160.4E 990HPA 23M/S 30KTS 250KM P12HR NW 15KM/H P+24HR 30.5N 158.6E 980HPA 30M/S P+48HR 33.6N 157.8E 980HPA 30M/S P+72HR 36.5N 156.5E 988HPA 25M/S= ** WTIN20 DEMS 210640 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE NEW DELHI 21-07-2005 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTIVE CLOUDS OVER EAST CENTRAL ARABIAN SEA,PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL AND ANDAMAN SEA(.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 30 DEG. NORTH OVER INDIAN REGION (.) ** WTJP22 RJTD 210600 *** WARNING 210600. WARNING VALID 220600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. STORM WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0506 NALGAE (0506) 992 HPA AT 27.6N 160.4E NORTHWEST OF WAKE MOVING NORTHWEST 09 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 230 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 220600UTC AT 30.5N 159.7E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 230600UTC AT 32.2N 160.6E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 240600UTC AT 33.9N 163.7E WITH 220 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 210600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0506 NALGAE (0506) ANALYSIS PSTN 210600UTC 27.6N 160.4E FAIR MOVE NW 09KT PRES 992HPA MXWD 045KT 30KT 230NM NORTHEAST 150NM SOUTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 220600UTC 30.5N 159.7E 80NM 70% MOVE NNW 07KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 48HF 230600UTC 32.2N 160.6E 150NM 70% MOVE NNE SLOWLY PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 72HF 240600UTC 33.9N 163.7E 220NM 70% MOVE NE 07KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT = ** WTPQ20 RJTD 210600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TD ANALYSIS PSTN 210600UTC 13.7N 137.5E POOR MOVE NE SLOWLY PRES 996HPA MXWD 030KT FORECAST 24HF 220600UTC 17.0N 138.0E 80NM 70% MOVE N 10KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 035KT = ** WTPQ31 RJTD 210600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 4 FOR TS 0506 NALGAE (0506) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 210600 UTC IS FAIR. TS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN DECELERAT E. TS WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN MOVE TO NOR TH-NORTHEAST. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TS WILL BE GRADED UP TO STS WITHIN 24 HOURS. TS WILL DEVELOP BECAUSE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE NEAR CYCLONE CENTER H AS BECOME COLDER AND CYCLONE WILL STAY IN HIGH SST AREA. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 3.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPQ30 RJTD 210600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 1 FOR TD LOCATED AT 13.7N 137.5E 1.GENERAL COMMENTS POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 210600 UTC IS POOR BECAUSE OF OBSCURE CLOUD PA TTERN. TD WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS THEN ACCELERAT E. TD WILL MOVE NORTH FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TD WILL BE GRADED UP TO TS WITHIN 24 HOURS. TD WILL DEVELOP BECAUSE CLOUD FEATURES OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW HAVE BECOME DISTINCT AND CYCLONE WILL STAY IN HIGH SST AREA. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 3.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTKO20 RKSL 210600 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 2 NAME TS 0506 NALGAE ANALYSIS POSITION 210600UTC 27.5N 160.4E MOVEMENT NW 9KT PRES/VMAX 992HPA 45KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 220600UTC 30.2N 158.8E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT 48HR POSITION 230600UTC 32.4N 158.6E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT 72HR POSITION 240600UTC 34.2N 161.0E WITHIN 215NM PRES/VMAX 990HPA 45KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTNT75 KNHC 210831 *** SPFAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EMILY PROBABILITIES NUMBER 43 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 4 AM CDT THU JUL 21 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 4 AM CDT...0900Z...THE DEPRESSION CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 101.1 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 1AM CDT SUN JUL 24 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 99 X X X 99 99 X X X 99 99 X X X 99 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 1AM FRI FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 1AM FRI TO 1PM FRI C FROM 1PM FRI TO 1AM SAT D FROM 1AM SAT TO 1AM SUN E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 1AM SUN X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT35 KNHC 210832 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION EMILY ADVISORY NUMBER 43 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 4 AM CDT THU JUL 21 2005 ...EMILY WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN MEXICO...RAINFALL THREAT CONTINUES... FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 4 AM CDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 101.1 WEST OR ABOUT 80 MILES...130 KM...SOUTHWEST OF MONTERREY MEXICO. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR... AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. FURTHER WEAKENING IS FORECAST...AND THE DEPRESSION WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES. EMILY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. MONTERREY REPORTED 4.09 INCHES OF RAIN FOR THE 6 HOUR PERIOD ENDING AT 1 AM CDT. REPEATING THE 4 AM CDT POSITION...25.0 N...101.1 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 10 AM CDT. FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT45 KNHC 210832 *** TCDAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER 43 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT THU JUL 21 2005 THE CENTER OF EMILY HAS REACHED THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS...AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT DECAY OF THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. AT THIS MOMENT...THE STRONGEST REMAINING DEEP CONVECTION IS IN BANDS WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTER...MOST NOTABLY IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. BASED ON THE DECAY...DECREASING WINDS ON THE BROWNSVILLE WSR-88D...AND OBSERVATIONS FROM MONTERREY MEXICO... THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 30 KT. SOME HIGHER WINDS MAY OCCUR IN THE MOUNTAINS DUE TO TERRAIN EFFECTS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/9. EMILY SHOULD CONTINUE THIS GENERAL MOTION UNTIL THE SURFACE CIRCULATION DISSIPATES OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN MEXICO IN 12-24 HR. THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHEN MEXICO FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE REMNANT MID/UPPER LEVEL CENTER MOVES WESTWARD. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 21/0900Z 25.0N 101.1W 30 KT 12HR VT 21/1800Z 25.0N 102.8W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 24HR VT 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ ** WTNT25 KNHC 210832 *** TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EMILY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 43 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052005 0900Z THU JUL 21 2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 101.1W AT 21/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 101.1W AT 21/0900Z...INLAND AT 21/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 100.6W...INLAND FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 25.0N 102.8W...INLAND REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.0N 101.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/1500Z FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTPN31 PGTW 210900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 06W (NALGAE) WARNING NR 006 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 210600Z --- NEAR 27.6N 160.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 27.6N 160.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z --- 29.2N 159.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z --- 30.8N 157.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 32.5N 156.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 34.6N 155.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 37.7N 155.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 000 DEG/ 13 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 42.7N 155.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z --- 47.9N 158.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 210900Z POSITION NEAR 28.0N 160.1E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 06W (NALGAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 610 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF WAKE ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TS 06W REMAINS ORGANIZED HOWEVER, CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210600Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 211500Z, 212100Z, 220300Z AND 220900Z.// ** WTJP32 RJTD 210900 *** WARNING 210900. WARNING VALID 220900. STORM WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0506 NALGAE (0506) 992 HPA AT 28.0N 160.0E NORTHEAST OF MINAMITORISIMA MOVING NORTHWEST 11 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 230 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 220900UTC AT 30.9N 159.4E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 210900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0506 NALGAE (0506) ANALYSIS PSTN 210900UTC 28.0N 160.0E FAIR MOVE NW 11KT PRES 992HPA MXWD 045KT 30KT 230NM NORTHEAST 150NM SOUTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 220900UTC 30.9N 159.4E 80NM 70% MOVE NNW 07KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 45HF 230600UTC 32.2N 160.6E 150NM 70% MOVE NNE SLOWLY PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 69HF 240600UTC 33.9N 163.7E 220NM 70% MOVE NE 07KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT = ** WTPQ20 RJTD 210900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TD ANALYSIS PSTN 210900UTC 14.0N 137.5E POOR MOVE N SLOWLY PRES 996HPA MXWD 030KT FORECAST 24HF 220900UTC 16.4N 138.0E 150NM 70% MOVE N 06KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 040KT =