** WTNT35 KNHC 210000 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM EMILY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 41A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 7 PM CDT WED JUL 20 2005 ...EMILY WEAKENING OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO BUT HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO FROM SOUTH OF THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER SOUTHWARD TO LA PESCA MEXICO. THIS WARNING AREA WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TONIGHT. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 7 PM CDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILY WAS LOCATED INLAND OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO NEAR LATITUDE 25.0 NORTH... LONGITUDE 99.7 WEST OR ABOUT 60 MILES ... 100 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MONTERREY MEXICO AND ABOUT 120 MILES... 195 KM...SOUTHWEST OF MCALLEN TEXAS. EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS... TAKING EMILY FARTHER INLAND ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MEXICO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...80 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... AND EMILY WILL LIKELY BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES ...225 KM...MAINLY EAST OF THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB...29.38 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD CONTINUE GRADUALLY DECREASING OVERNIGHT. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS LIKELY OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO WHERE 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE LIKELY WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 15 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER FAR SOUTH TEXAS AND THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. REPEATING THE 7 PM CDT POSITION...25.0 N... 99.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 995 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 10 PM CDT. FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT35 KNHC 210013 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM EMILY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 41A... CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 7 PM CDT WED JUL 20 2005 ...ADDED MISSING STATEMENT ON POSSIBLE TORNADOES... ...EMILY WEAKENING OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO BUT HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO FROM SOUTH OF THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER SOUTHWARD TO LA PESCA MEXICO. THIS WARNING AREA WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TONIGHT. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 7 PM CDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILY WAS LOCATED INLAND OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO NEAR LATITUDE 25.0 NORTH... LONGITUDE 99.7 WEST OR ABOUT 60 MILES ... 100 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MONTERREY MEXICO AND ABOUT 120 MILES... 195 KM...SOUTHWEST OF MCALLEN TEXAS. EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS... TAKING EMILY FARTHER INLAND ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MEXICO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...80 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... AND EMILY WILL LIKELY BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES ...225 KM...MAINLY EAST OF THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB...29.38 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD CONTINUE GRADUALLY DECREASING OVERNIGHT. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS LIKELY OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO WHERE 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE LIKELY WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 15 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER FAR SOUTH TEXAS AND THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. ISOLATED TORNADOES REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS THIS EVENING. REPEATING THE 7 PM CDT POSITION...25.0 N... 99.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 995 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 10 PM CDT. FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTCA45 TJSJ 210016 *** TCPSP5 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL EMILY ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 41A NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 7 PM CDT MIERCOLES 20 DE JULIO DE 2005 ...EMILY SE DEBILITA SOBRE EL NORESTE DE MEXICO PERO LA LLUVIA FUERTE CONTINUA... CONTINUA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DESDE EL SUR DEL BORDE ENTRE MEXICO/TEXAS HACIA EL SUR HASTA LA PESCA MEXICO. ESTE AREA DE AVISO PROBABLEMENTE SERA DESCONTINUADO TARDE ESTA NOCHE. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA EN SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE TIERRA...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA DE METEOROLOGIA LOCAL. A LAS 7 PM CDT...0000Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL EMILY ESTABA LOCALIZADO SOBRE TIERRA EN EL NORESTE DE MEXICO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 25.0 NORTE...LONGITUD 99.7 OESTE O COMO A 60 MILLAS... 100 KM... AL SUR SURESTE DE MONTERREY MEXICO Y COMO A 120 MILLAS... 195 KM...AL SUROESTE DE MCALLEN TEXAS. EMILY SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE A CERCA DE 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL CONTINUE POR LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS...LLEVANDO A EMILY MAS TIERRA ADENTRO A TRAVES DEL NORESTE DE MEXICO. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 50 MPH...80 KM/HR... CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES...SE ESPERA QUE CONTINUE UN DEBILITAMIENTO RAPIDO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS...Y SE ESPERA QUE EMILY SE CONVIERTA EN UNA DEPRESION TROPICAL TARDE ESTA NOCHE. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 140 MILLAS... 225 KM... MAYORMENTE AL ESTE DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 995 MB...29.38 PULGADAS. INUNDACIONES COSTERAS POR MAREJADAS CICLONICA A LO LARGO DEL NORESTE DE LA COSTA DE MEXICO DEBEN DE GRADUALMENTE DISMINUIR AL ANOCHECER. LA LLUVIA MAS FUERTE ES PROBABLE SOBRE EL NORESTE DE MEXICO DONDE SON POSIBLES DE 5 A 10 PULGADAS CON POSIBLES CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE HASTA 15 PULGADAS EN LAS MONTANAS. ESTAS LLUVIAS PUEDEN CAUSAR INUNDACIONES REPENTINAS Y DERRUMBES QUE PUEDEN PONER EN RIESGO LAS VIDAS. SE ESPERAN ACUMULACIONES DE LLUVIA DE 1 A 2 PULGADAS SOBRE EL SUR DE TEXAS Y EL VALLE BAJO DE RIO GRANDE. TAMBIEN SON POSIBLES TORNADOS AISLADOS SOBRE EL SUR DE TEXAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LA 7 PM CDT...25.0 NORTE... 99.7 OESTE. MOVIENDOSE HACIA EL...OESTE A CERCA DE 12 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...50 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA... 995 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 10 PM CDT. PRONOSTICADOR KNABB $$ ** WTJP22 RJTD 210000 *** WARNING 210000. WARNING VALID 220000. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. STORM WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0506 NALGAE (0506) 992 HPA AT 27.0N 161.1E NORTHWEST OF WAKE MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 09 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 230 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 220000UTC AT 30.3N 159.8E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 230000UTC AT 32.5N 159.5E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 240000UTC AT 34.3N 160.5E WITH 220 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 210000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0506 NALGAE (0506) ANALYSIS PSTN 210000UTC 27.0N 161.1E FAIR MOVE WNW 09KT PRES 992HPA MXWD 045KT 30KT 230NM NORTHEAST 150NM SOUTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 220000UTC 30.3N 159.8E 80NM 70% MOVE NNW 08KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 48HF 230000UTC 32.5N 159.5E 150NM 70% MOVE N SLOWLY PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 72HF 240000UTC 34.3N 160.5E 220NM 70% MOVE NNE SLOWLY PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 210000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS NALGAE 0506 (0506) INITIAL TIME 210000 UTC 00HR 27.0N 161.0E 995HPA 20M/S 30KTS 200KM P12HR NNW 15KM/H P+24HR 30.0N 157.6E 988HPA 25M/S P+48HR 32.8N 156.1E 980HPA 30M/S P+72HR 35.6N 155.6E 980HPA 30M/S= ** WTPQ31 RJTD 210000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 3 FOR TS 0506 NALGAE (0506) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 210000 UTC IS FAIR. TS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN DECELERAT E. TS WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN MOVE TO NOR TH. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TS WILL BE GRADED UP TO STS WITHIN 24 HOURS. TS WILL DEVELOP BECAUSE CYCLONE WILL STAY IN HIGH SST AREA. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 3.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPN31 PGTW 210300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 06W (NALGAE) WARNING NR 005 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 210000Z --- NEAR 26.9N 161.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 26.9N 161.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 211200Z --- 28.3N 159.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 220000Z --- 29.9N 158.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 221200Z --- 31.5N 156.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 230000Z --- 33.1N 155.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z --- 37.1N 154.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 12 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z --- 42.0N 153.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 260000Z --- 47.0N 156.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 210300Z POSITION NEAR 27.2N 160.7E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 06W (NALGAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 560 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF WAKE ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210000Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 210900Z, 211500Z, 212100Z AND 220300Z.// ** WTPN22 PGTW 210230 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT/192221ZAPR05// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.9N 137.6E TO 17.7N 135.8E WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 202330Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 137.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH- NORTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS. THE NEXT SATELLITE INVESTIGATION IS SCHEDULED FOR 220000Z. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 137.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 137.1E, APPROXIMATELY 450 NM WEST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS INCREASING CONVECTION CONSOLIDATING OVER A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. BASED ON IMPROVING ORGANIZATION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 220230Z.// ** WTNT35 KNHC 210235 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM EMILY ADVISORY NUMBER 42 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 PM CDT WED JUL 20 2005 ...EMILY STILL PRODUCING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS INLAND OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO... AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM SOUTH OF THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER SOUTHWARD TO LA PESCA MEXICO. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.0 NORTH... LONGITUDE 100.2 WEST OR ABOUT 65 MILES... 110 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MONTERREY MEXICO AND ABOUT 180 MILES... 290 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 10 MPH... 17 KM/HR... AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT... BRINGING EMILY FARTHER INLAND AND OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST OVERNIGHT... AND EMILY WILL LIKELY BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES ...165 KM FROM THE CENTER. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR DATA FROM BROWNSVILLE TEXAS INDICATE THAT TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS CONTINUE IN RAINBANDS WELL NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER... BETWEEN MONTERREY MEXICO AND THE TEXAS BORDER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES. 5 TO 10 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED OVER NORTHEAST MEXICO... WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. SINCE 7 AM CDT WEDNESDAY... MONTERREY MEXICO... LOCATED ON THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS... HAS RECEIVED 3.39 INCHES OF RAINFALL. ISOLATED TORNADOES REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN TEXAS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. REPEATING THE 10 PM CDT POSITION...25.0 N...100.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 4 AM CDT. FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT25 KNHC 210236 *** TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM EMILY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 42 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052005 0300Z THU JUL 21 2005 AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM SOUTH OF THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER SOUTHWARD TO LA PESCA MEXICO. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 100.2W AT 21/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 90NE 60SE 30SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS..225NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 100.2W AT 21/0300Z AT 21/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 99.7W FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 25.0N 101.7W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.0N 100.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0900Z FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT75 KNHC 210236 *** SPFAT5 TROPICAL STORM EMILY PROBABILITIES NUMBER 42 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 PM CDT WED JUL 20 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 100.2 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 7PM CDT SAT JUL 23 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 99 X X X 99 99 X X X 99 99 X X X 99 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 7PM THU FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 7PM THU TO 7AM FRI C FROM 7AM FRI TO 7PM FRI D FROM 7PM FRI TO 7PM SAT E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 7PM SAT X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTCA45 TJSJ 210252 *** TCPSP5 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL EMILY ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 42 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 10 PM CDT MIERCOLES 20 DE JULIO DE 2005 ...EMILY CONTINUA PRODUCIENDO VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL Y LLUVIA FUERTE SOBRE EL NORESTE DE MEXICO... A LAS 10 PM CDT...0300Z...EL GOBIERNO DE MEXICO HA DESCONTINUADO EL AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA NORESTE DE MEXICO DESDE EL SUR DEL BORDE ENTRE MEXICO/TEXAS HACIA EL SUR HASTA LA PESCA MEXICO. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA EN SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE TIERRA...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA DE METEOROLOGIA LOCAL. A LAS 10 PM CDT...0300Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL EMILY ESTABA LOCALIZADO SOBRE TIERRA EN EL NORESTE DE MEXICO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 25.0 NORTE...LONGITUD 100.2 OESTE O COMO A 65 MILLAS... 110 KM... AL SUR SURESTE DE MONTERREY MEXICO Y COMO A 180 MILLAS... 290 KM...AL OESTE SUROESTE DE BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. EMILY SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE A CERCA DE 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL CONTINUE EN LA MADRUGADA...LLEVANDO A EMILY MAS TIERRA ADENTRO A TRAVES DEL NORESTE DE MEXICO. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 50 MPH...85 KM/HR... CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES...SE ESPERA UN DEBILITAMIENTO EN LA MADRUGADA ...Y SE ESPERA QUE EMILY SE CONVIERTA EN UNA DEPRESION TROPICAL TEMPRANO EL JUEVES EN LA MANANA. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 105 MILLAS... 165 KM... EL RADAR DOPPLER DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA EN BROWNSVILLE TEXAS INDICO QUE VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL CONTINUAN EN BANDAS BIEN AL NORESTE DEL CENTRO...ENTRE MONTERREY MEXICO Y EL BORDE DE TEXAS. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1001 MB...29.56 PULGADAS. DE 5 A 10 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES SOBRE EL NORESTE DE MEXICO...CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE HASTA 15 PULGADAS EN LAS MONTANAS. ESTAS LLUVIAS PUEDEN CAUSAR INUNDACIONES REPENTINAS Y DERRUMBES QUE PUEDEN PONER EN RIESGO LAS VIDAS. DESDE LAS 7AM CDT MIERCOLES...MONTERREY MEXICO...LOCALIZADO EN LAS PENDIENTES DE LAS MONTANAS DE SIERRA MADRE...HAN RECIBIDO 3.39 PULGADAS DE LLUVIA. TAMBIEN SON POSIBLES TORNADOS AISLADOS SOBRE EL SUR DE TEXAS HASTA EL JUEVES EN LA MANANA.. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LA 10 PM CDT...25.0 NORTE...100.2 OESTE. MOVIENDOSE HACIA EL...OESTE A CERCA DE 10 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...50 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1001 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 4 AM CDT. PRONOSTICADOR KNABB $$ ** WTNT45 KNHC 210255 *** TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER 42 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT WED JUL 20 2005 CONVECTIVE TOPS HAVE COOLED SUBSTANTIALLY NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER... BUT A STRONG RAINBAND PERSISTS NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER BETWEEN MONTERREY MEXICO AND THE TEXAS BORDER. DOPPLER VELOCITIES FROM THE BROWNSVILLE TEXAS RADAR STILL INDICATE WINDS NEAR 50 KT AT ABOUT 10000 FEET IN THAT BAND... SUGGESTING THAT WINDS NEAR 45 KT COULD STILL BE MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE. EMILY THEREFORE REMAINS A 45 KT TROPICAL STORM FOR NOW. INITIAL MOTION IS DUE WESTWARD AT ABOUT 9 KT... AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION IS JUST ABOUT TO RUN INTO THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL MOUNTAINS OF INTERIOR NORTHEAST MEXICO... AND THIS SHOULD SOON LEAD TO A DECOUPLING OF THE SURFACE CIRCULATION FROM THE CONVECTION. EMILY IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVERNIGHT AND DEGENERATE INTO A REMANT LOW WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER... THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY HEAVY RAINS OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO... AND THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. FORECASTER KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 21/0300Z 25.0N 100.2W 45 KT 12HR VT 21/1200Z 25.0N 101.7W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 24HR VT 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ ** WTPQ21 RJTD 210300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0506 NALGAE (0506) ANALYSIS PSTN 210300UTC 27.1N 160.8E FAIR MOVE NW 10KT PRES 992HPA MXWD 045KT 30KT 230NM NORTHEAST 150NM SOUTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 220300UTC 30.5N 159.0E 80NM 70% MOVE NNW 09KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 45HF 230000UTC 32.5N 159.5E 150NM 70% MOVE N SLOWLY PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 69HF 240000UTC 34.3N 160.5E 220NM 70% MOVE NNE SLOWLY PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT = ** WTJP32 RJTD 210300 *** WARNING 210300. WARNING VALID 220300. STORM WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0506 NALGAE (0506) 992 HPA AT 27.1N 160.8E NORTHWEST OF WAKE MOVING NORTHWEST 10 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 230 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 220300UTC AT 30.5N 159.0E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTNT80 EGRR 210533 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 21.07.2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EUGENE ANALYSED POSITION : 22.4N 111.9W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP052005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 21.07.2005 22.4N 111.9W WEAK 12UTC 21.07.2005 23.5N 113.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 22.07.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM EMILY ANALYSED POSITION : 25.8N 99.3W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 21.07.2005 25.8N 99.3W WEAK 12UTC 21.07.2005 26.7N 101.0W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 22.07.2005 26.2N 100.9W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 22.07.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 210533