** WTCA45 TJSJ 201826 *** TCPSP5 BOLETIN HURACAN EMILY ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 40A NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 1 PM CDT MIERCOLES 20 DE JULIO DE 2005 ...EMILY AZOTANDO COMO UN HURACAN DE CATEGORIA UNO BIEN TIERRA ADENTRO SOBRE EL NORESTE DE MEXICO... CONTINUA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN PARA EL NORESTE DE MEXICO DESDE EL SUR DE LA FRONTERA DE TEXAS Y MEXICO HASTA LA CRUZ MEXICO. AHORA ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DESDE PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS HACIA EL SUR HASTA LA FRONTERA DE TEXAS Y MEXICO...Y TAMBIEN DESDE EL SUR DE LA CRUZ HACIA EL SUR HASTA CABO ROJO MEXICO. POSIBLEMENTE PARTES DE AMBOS AVISOS SERAN DESCONTINUADOS O DEGRADADOS MAS TARDE ESTA TARDE. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA EN SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE TIERRA...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA DE METEOROLOGIA LOCAL. A LA 1 PM CDT...1800Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN EMILY ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 25.0 NORTE...LONGITUD 98.7 OESTE O COMO A 105 MILLAS... 170 KM... AL ESTE-SURESTE DE MONTERREY MEXICO Y COMO A 85 MILLAS... 135 KM...AL SUR-SUROESTE DE MCALLEN TEXAS. EMILY SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE A CERCA DE 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL CONTINUE POR LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS...LLEVANDO A EMILY MAS TIERRA ADENTRO A TRAVES DEL NORESTE DE MEXICO. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 80 MPH...130 KM/HR... CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES...MAYORMENTE CERCA DE LAS AREAS COSTERAS. EMILY ES UN HURACAN DE CATEGORIA UNO EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. SE ESPERA QUE CONTINUE UN DEBILITAMIENTO RAPIDO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS A MEDIDA QUE EMILY SE MUEVE MAS TIERRA ADENTRO SOBRE TERRENO MAS ALTO. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 70 MILLAS... 110 KM...DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 160 MILLAS...260 KM ESPECIALMENTE AL NORESTE HASTA EL ESTE DEL CENTRO. MATAMOROS MEXICO Y BROWNSVILLE TEXAS AMBOS REPORTARON RECIENTEMENTE UNA RAFAGA DE VIENTO HASTA 46 MPH. LOS DATOS DEL RADAR DOPPLER DEL RADAR DE BROWNSVILLE TEXAS TAMBIEN INDICAN QUE POSIBLEMENTE TODAVIA ESTAN OCURRIENDO VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN A LO LARGO DE PARTES DE LA COSTA NORESTE DE MEXICO Y JUSTO FUERA DE LA COSTA. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 975 MB...28.79 PULGADAS. SE PUEDEN ESPERAR INUNDACIONES COSTERAS POR MAREJADAS CICLONICAS DE 5 A 8 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA...CON NIVELES MAYORES EN LAS BAHIAS...ACOMPANADAS POR GRANDES Y PELIGROSAS OLAS ROMPIENTES...A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA NORESTE DE MEXICO Y A LO LARGO DEL EXTREMO SUR DE LA COSTA DE TEXAS HOY. LOS VALORES DE LA MAREJADA CICLONICA DISMINURAN GRADUALMENTE DURANTE EL ANOCHECER. LA LLUVIA MAS FUERTE ES PROBABLE SOBRE EL NORESTE DE MEXICO DONDE SON POSIBLES DE 5 A 10 PULGADAS CON POSIBLES CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE HASTA 15 PULGADAS EN LAS MONTANAS. ESTAS LLUVIAS PUEDEN CAUSAR INUNDACIONES REPENTINAS Y DERRUMBES QUE PUEDEN PONER EN RIESGO LAS VIDAS. SE ESPERAN ACUMULACIONES DE LLUVIA DE 2 A 4 PULGADAS SOBRE EL SUR DE TEXAS Y EL VALLE BAJO DE RIO GRANDE. TAMBIEN SON POSIBLES TORNADOS AISLADOS SOBRE EL SUR DE TEXAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LA 1 PM CDT...25.0 NORTE... 98.7 OESTE. MOVIENDOSE HACIA EL...OESTE A CERCA DE 12 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...80 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA... 975 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 4 PM CDT. PRONOSTICADOR STEWART $$ ** WTNT35 KNHC 201837 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN HURRICANE EMILY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 40A...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1 PM CDT WED JUL 20 2005 CORRECTED HEADLINE ...EMILY STILL PACKING A PUNCH AS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE WELL INLAND OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEASTERN MEXICO FROM SOUTH OF THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER SOUTHWARD TO LA CRUZ MEXICO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS SOUTHWARD TO THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER...AND ALSO FROM SOUTH OF LA CRUZ SOUTHWARD TO CABO ROJO MEXICO. PORTIONS OF BOTH WARNING AREAS WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED OR DOWNGRADED LATER THIS AFTERNOON. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 1 PM CDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.0 NORTH... LONGITUDE 98.7 WEST OR ABOUT 105 MILES ... 170 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MONTERREY MEXICO AND ABOUT 85 MILES ... 135 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MCALLEN TEXAS. EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS... TAKING EMILY FARTHER INLAND ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MEXICO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...MAINLY NEAR THE COASTAL AREAS. EMILY IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS EMILY MOVES FARTHER INLAND OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES...260 KM...ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST THROUGH EAST OF THE CENTER. RECENTLY...MATAMOROS MEXICO AND BROWNSVILLE TEXAS BOTH REPORTED A WIND GUST TO 46 MPH. DOPPLER RADAR DATA FROM BROWNSVILLE TEXAS ALSO INDICATES THAT HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE STILL LIKELY OCCURRING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF MEXICO AND JUST OFFSHORE. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 975 MB...28.79 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...WITH HIGHER LEVELS IN BAYS...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF MEXICO AND ALONG THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS COAST TODAY. STORM SURGE VALUES WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE BY THIS EVENING. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS LIKELY OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO WHERE 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE LIKELY WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 15 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS AND THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS. REPEATING THE 1 PM CDT POSITION...25.0 N... 98.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 975 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 4 PM CDT. FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTPQ20 BABJ 201800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS NALGAE 0506 (0506) INITIAL TIME 201800 UTC 00HR 26.2N 161.0E 995HPA 20M/S 30KTS 180KM P12HR NW 25KM/H P+24HR 28.2N 155.9E 995HPA 20M/S P+48HR 30.8N 154.6E 990HPA 23M/S P+72HR 33.6N 154.6E 990HPA 23M/S= ** WTJP22 RJTD 201800 *** WARNING 201800. WARNING VALID 211800. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. STORM WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0506 NALGAE (0506) 996 HPA AT 26.3N 161.1E NORTH OF WAKE MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 14 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 200 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 211800UTC AT 29.1N 158.7E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 221800UTC AT 31.7N 157.8E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 231800UTC AT 32.8N 158.3E WITH 220 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 201800 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0506 NALGAE (0506) ANALYSIS PSTN 201800UTC 26.3N 161.1E FAIR MOVE WNW 14KT PRES 996HPA MXWD 040KT 30KT 200NM NORTHEAST 120NM SOUTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 211800UTC 29.1N 158.7E 80NM 70% MOVE NW 08KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 48HF 221800UTC 31.7N 157.8E 150NM 70% MOVE N 06KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 72HF 231800UTC 32.8N 158.3E 220NM 70% MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT = ** WTUS84 KBRO 201852 AAA *** HLSBRO TXZ248>257-202100- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT...UPDATED TO EXTEND TORNADO WATCH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX 151 PM CDT WED JUL 20 2005 ...HURRICANE EMILY MOVING WEST IN THE FOOTHILLS OF THE SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL RANGE... ...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE TEXAS GULF COAST FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO BROWNSVILLE... ...INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT HIDALGO AND STARR COUNTIES IN DEEP SOUTH TEXAS... ...A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL DEEP SOUTH TEXAS... ...A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH 6 PM TODAY... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE LOWER TEXAS COASTLINE WHICH INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES: HIDALGO...CAMERON...WILLACY AND STARR. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... AT 1 PM CDT...A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 PM CDT FOR ALL OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 6 PM CDT FOR ALL OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 1 PM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 98.7 WEST OR ABOUT 105 MILES...EAST SOUTHEAST OF MONTERREY MEXICO AND ABOUT 85 MILES...SOUTHWEST OF MCALLEN TEXAS. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 975 MILLIBARS. EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST AT 12 MPH. EMILY WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS INLAND TODAY. PRELIMINARY WEATHER INFORMATION COLLECTED INDICATED SUSTAINED WINDS AT BROWNSVILLE OF 48 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 63 MPH. HARLINGEN REPORTED WINDS OF 51 MPH GUSTING TO 59 MPH AND MCALLEN REPORTED WINDS OF 38 MPH AND GUSTS TO 47 MPH. RECENT THREE HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS AS OF 1 PM CDT INCLUDE 3.80 INCHES OVER SOUTHERN HIDALGO COUNTY INCLUDING MCALLEN. REPORTS OF FUNNEL CLOUDS HAVE BEEN RECEIVED FROM WESLACO TEXAS. ADDITIONAL WIND DAMAGE REPORTS WERE RECEIVED FROM CITY OFFICIAL ON SOUTH PADRE ISLAND. MOST DAMAGE HAS BEEN ISOLATED AND ADDITIONAL REPORTS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE ADVICE OF LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AND OTHER GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... AT 1 PM CDT...STORM SURGE AND TIDES CONTINUE TO DECREASE ALONG THE BEACHES OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. WIND DRIVEN WAVE OF 3 TO 5 FEET WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE ROUGH SURF CONDITION THROUGH THIS EVENING. MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL DECREASE RAPIDLY THIS AFTERNOON. ...WIND IMPACTS... AT 1 PM CDT...MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WITH HURRICANE EMILY HAVE DROPPED TO 80 MPH. A STEADY DECREASE IN WIND SPEED IS EXPECTED TODAY. SUSTAINED WINDS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO BROWNSVILLE. ...OTHER IMPACTS... THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS HIGH AS THE EFFECTS OF EMILY CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. SEAS OF 10 TO 14 FEET ARE EXPECTED IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS WITH ROUGH SURF ALONG THE BEACHES OF SOUTH PADRE ISLAND. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AS EMILY DETERIORATES IN THE FOOTHILLS OF THE SIERRA MADRE RANGE. ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE...GENERALLY FROM MERCEDES TO ZAPATA TEXAS. ALL RESIDENTS SHOULD BE AWARE OF THE DANGER POSED BY FLOODING RAINS. NEVER DRIVE INTO WATER OF UNKNOWN DEPTH. REMEMBER...TURN AROUND DON'T DROWN. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 4 PM CDT. $$ KV/AP ** WTPN31 PGTW 202100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 06W (NALGAE) WARNING NR 004 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 201800Z --- NEAR 26.2N 161.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 26.2N 161.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z --- 27.6N 159.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z --- 29.2N 158.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z --- 30.9N 157.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 32.4N 156.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 36.1N 155.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 12 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 41.0N 155.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 15 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 45.9N 160.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 202100Z POSITION NEAR 26.5N 161.1E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 06W (NALGAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 510 NM NORTHWEST OF WAKE ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTHWEST- WARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIF- ICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201800Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 210300Z, 210900Z, 211500Z AND 212100Z.// ** WTPZ25 KNHC 202032 *** TCMEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EUGENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052005 2100Z WED JUL 20 2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 111.9W AT 20/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 111.9W AT 20/2100Z AT 20/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 111.5W FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 23.0N 113.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 23.5N 114.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 23.5N 116.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.3N 111.9W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT25 KNHC 202036 *** TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM EMILY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 41 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052005 2100Z WED JUL 20 2005 AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS REPLACED THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN MEXICO WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM SOUTH OF THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER SOUTHWARD TO LA PESCA MEXICO. THIS WARNING AREA WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TONIGHT. AT 4 PM CDT...ALL WARNINGS FOR THE SOUTH TEXAS COAST HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 99.2W AT 20/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 80NE 60SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT.......140NE 110SE 50SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..270NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 99.2W AT 20/2100Z AT 20/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 98.7W FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 25.1N 100.9W...DISSIPATING INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 25.1N 103.0W...REMNANT LOW INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED INLAND REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.0N 99.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0300Z FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT45 KNHC 202036 *** TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER 41 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT WED JUL 20 2005 DATA FROM THE BROWNSVILLE WSR-88D DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED VELOCITIES THAT SUPPORTED 70 KT AT THE 18Z SYNOPTIC TIME. SINCE THEN...HOWEVER ...THEY HAVE DECREASED TO 65-67 KT AT 9000 FT ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN MEXICAN COAST...WHICH ONLY SUPPORTS ABOUT 60 KT AT THE SURFACE. THEREFORE...TENACIOUS EMILY HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM. THE INITIAL MOTION IS FINALLY...WESTWARD...AT 275/10. NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT ON A WESTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS ...AND THE MODEL CONSENSUS WAS FOLLOWED CLOSELY. THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL LIKELY GET SHEARED AWAY FROM THE MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS AFTER 18 HOURS AND POSSIBLY REMAIN BEHIND TO THE EAST OF THE MOUNTAIN RANGE. HOWEVER...A 24-HOUR POSITION WAS INCLUDED FOR CONTINUITY PURPOSES FOR THOSE USERS WHO MAY NEED AN 18-HOUR INTERMEDIATE POSITION. EMILY SHOULD CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN OVERNIGHT AS THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER INCREASINGLY HIGHER TERRAIN...AND COULD BECOME A DEPRESSION LATER THIS EVENING. COMPLETE DISSIPATION SHOULD OCCUR BY 24-30 HOURS WHEN EMILY IS OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN MEXICO. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 20/2100Z 25.0N 99.2W 60 KT...INLAND 12HR VT 21/0600Z 25.1N 100.9W 30 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND 24HR VT 21/1800Z 25.1N 103.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW INLAND 36HR VT 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ ** WTNT35 KNHC 202037 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM EMILY ADVISORY NUMBER 41 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 4 PM CDT WED JUL 20 2005 ...HURRICANE WARNINGS DISCONTINUED AS EMILY WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO... ...EMILY STILL A HEAVY RAINFALL AND TORNADO THREAT... AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS REPLACED THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN MEXICO WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM SOUTH OF THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER SOUTHWARD TO LA PESCA MEXICO. THIS WARNING AREA WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TONIGHT. AT 4 PM CDT...ALL WARNINGS FOR THE SOUTH TEXAS COAST HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILY WAS LOCATED INLAND OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO NEAR LATITUDE 25.0 NORTH... LONGITUDE 99.2 WEST OR ABOUT 80 MILES ... 130 KM... SOUTHEAST OF MONTERREY MEXICO AND ABOUT 95 MILES... 155 KM...SOUTHWEST OF MCALLEN TEXAS. EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS... TAKING EMILY FARTHER INLAND ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MEXICO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...MAINLY ALONG THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND EMILY WILL LIKELY BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES ...260 KM...MAINLY NORTHEAST THROUGH EAST OF THE CENTER. RECENTLY... MATAMOROS MEXICO REPORTED A WIND GUST TO 51 MPH. ALSO...DOPPLER RADAR DATA FROM BROWNSVILLE TEXAS INDICATE THAT WINDS ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF MEXICO HAVE DECREASED TO BELOW HURRICANE FORCE. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 975 MB...28.79 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...WITH HIGHER LEVELS IN BAYS...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF MEXICO INTO THIS EVENING. STORM SURGE VALUES WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS LIKELY OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO WHERE 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE LIKELY WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 15 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER FAR SOUTH TEXAS AND THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. REPEATING THE 4 PM CDT POSITION...25.0 N... 99.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 975 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 7 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 10 PM CDT. FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT75 KNHC 202037 *** SPFAT5 TROPICAL STORM EMILY PROBABILITIES NUMBER 41 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 4 PM CDT WED JUL 20 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 99.2 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 1PM CDT SAT JUL 23 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 25.1N 103.0W 40 X X X 40 MMSO 238N 982W 7 X X X 7 99 X X X 99 BROWNSVILLE TX 6 X X X 6 99 X X X 99 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 1PM THU FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 1PM THU TO 1AM FRI C FROM 1AM FRI TO 1PM FRI D FROM 1PM FRI TO 1PM SAT E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 1PM SAT X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT85 KNHC 202055 *** TCVAT5 EMILY WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 400 PM CDT WED JUL 20 2005 .TROPICAL STORM EMILY TXC061-489-GMZ130-150-170-210300- /E.CAN.KNHC.TR.W.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 400 PM CDT WED JUL 20 2005 BROWNSVILLE-TX 26.05N 97.17W PORT-MANSFIELD-TX 26.59N 97.29W $$ ATTN...WFO...BRO... ** WTUS84 KBRO 202118 AAA *** HLSBRO TXZ248>257-202300- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT...UPDATED TO EXTEND TORNADO WATCH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX 418 PM CDT WED JUL 20 2005 ...ALL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS... ...A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS... ...A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH 6 PM TODAY... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE LOWER TEXAS COASTLINE WHICH INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES: HIDALGO...CAMERON...WILLACY AND STARR. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... AT 4 PM CDT...A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 PM CDT FOR ZAPATA...JIM HOGG...BROOKS...STARR AND HIDALGO COUNTIES IN DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 6 PM CDT FOR ALL OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 4 PM CDT...THE CENTER OF EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 99.2 WEST OR ABOUT 80 MILES...SOUTHEAST OF MONTERREY MEXICO AND ABOUT 95 MILES...SOUTHWEST OF MCALLEN TEXAS. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 985 MILLIBARS. THE REMAINS OF EMILY WILL MOVE WEST INTO NORTHERN MEXICO TONIGHT AND CONDITION OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS WILL IMPROVE. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE ADVICE OF LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AND OTHER GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... AT 4 PM CDT...STORM SURGE AND TIDES CONTINUE TO BE 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL AND WILL DECREASE ALONG THE BEACHES OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TONIGHT. MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL DECREASE RAPIDLY TONIGHT. ...WIND IMPACTS... AT 4 PM CDT...MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WITH EMILY HAVE DROPPED TO 60 MPH. A STEADY DECREASE IN WIND SPEED IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. SUSTAINED WINDS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE. ...OTHER IMPACTS... THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS HIGH AS REMNANT SWELLS IMPACT THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. ISOLATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS MAINLY ALONG THE RIO GRANDE FROM SULLIVAN CITY TO ZAPATA TEXAS AS EMILY DETERIORATES. ALL RESIDENTS SHOULD BE AWARE OF THE DANGER POSED BY FLOODING RAINS. NEVER DRIVE INTO WATER OF UNKNOWN DEPTH. REMEMBER...TURN AROUND DON'T DROWN. ...NEXT UPDATE... THIS WILL BE THE FINAL HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT ISSUED BY BROWNSVILLE ON HURRICANE EMILY. $$ KV/AP ** WTCA45 TJSJ 202132 *** TCPSP5 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL EMILY ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 41 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 4 PM CDT MIERCOLES 20 DE JULIO DE 2005 ...AVISOS DE HURACAN DESCONTINUADOS A MEDIDA QUE EMILY SE DEBILITA A TORMENTA TROPICAL SOBRE EL NORESTE DE MEXICO... ...EMILY CONTINUA COMO AMENAZA POR LLUVIAS FUERTES Y TORNADOS... A LAS 4 PM CDT...2100Z...EL GOBIERNO DE MEXICO A REEMPLAZADO EL AVISO DE HURACAN PARA EL NORESTE DE MEXICO POR UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DESDE EL SUR DEL BORDE ENTRE MEXICO/TEXAS HACIA EL SUR HASTA LA PESCA MEXICO. ESTE AREA DE AVISO PROBABLEMENTE SERA DESCONTINUADO TARDE ESTA NOCHE. A LAS 4 PM CDT...TODOS LOS AVISOS PARA LA COSTA SUR EN TEXAS HAN SIDO DESCONTINUADOS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA EN SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE TIERRA...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA DE METEOROLOGIA LOCAL. A LAS 4 PM CDT...2100Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN EMILY ESTABA LOCALIZADO SOBRE TIERRA EN EL NORESTE DE MEXICO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 25.0 NORTE...LONGITUD 99.2 OESTE O COMO A 80 MILLAS... 130 KM... AL SURESTE DE MONTERREY MEXICO Y COMO A 95 MILLAS... 155 KM...AL SUROESTE DE MCALLEN TEXAS. EMILY SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE A CERCA DE 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL CONTINUE POR LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS...LLEVANDO A EMILY MAS TIERRA ADENTRO A TRAVES DEL NORESTE DE MEXICO. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 70 MPH...110 KM/HR... CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES...SE ESPERA QUE CONTINUE UN DEBILITAMIENTO RAPIDO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS...Y SE ESPERA QUE EMILY SE CONVIERTA EN UNA DEPRESION TROPICAL TARDE ESTA NOCHE. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 160 MILLAS... 260 KM... MAYORMENTE AL NORESTE DEL CENTRO. RECIENTEMENTE...MATAMOROS MEXICO REPORTO UNA RAFAGA DE VIENTO HASTA 51 MPH. LOS DATOS DEL RADAR DOPPLER DEL RADAR DE BROWNSVILLE TEXAS TAMBIEN INDICAN QUE EL VIENTO A LO LARGO DEL NORESTE DE LA COSTA DE MEXICO HA DISMINUIDO POR DEBAJO DE FUERZA DE HURACAN. ESTOS VIENTOS IRAN DISMINUYENDO GRADUALMENTE DURANTE ESTA NOCHE. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 975 MB...28.79 PULGADAS. SE PUEDEN ESPERAR INUNDACIONES COSTERAS POR MAREJADAS CICLONICAS DE 3 A 5 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA...CON NIVELES MAYORES EN LAS BAHIAS...ACOMPANADAS POR GRANDES Y PELIGROSAS OLAS ROMPIENTES...A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA NORESTE DE MEXICO Y LOS VALORES DE LA MAREJADA CICLONICA DISMINURAN GRADUALMENTE DURANTE EL ANOCHECER. LA LLUVIA MAS FUERTE ES PROBABLE SOBRE EL NORESTE DE MEXICO DONDE SON POSIBLES DE 5 A 10 PULGADAS CON POSIBLES CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE HASTA 15 PULGADAS EN LAS MONTANAS. ESTAS LLUVIAS PUEDEN CAUSAR INUNDACIONES REPENTINAS Y DERRUMBES QUE PUEDEN PONER EN RIESGO LAS VIDAS. SE ESPERAN ACUMULACIONES DE LLUVIA DE 2 A 4 PULGADAS SOBRE EL SUR DE TEXAS Y EL VALLE BAJO DE RIO GRANDE. TAMBIEN SON POSIBLES TORNADOS AISLADOS SOBRE EL SUR DE TEXAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LA 4 PM CDT...25.0 NORTE... 99.2 OESTE. MOVIENDOSE HACIA EL...OESTE A CERCA DE 12 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...70 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA... 975 MILIBARAS. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 7 PM CDT SEGUIDA POR LA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 10 PM CDT. PRONOSTICADOR STEWART $$ ** WTPQ21 RJTD 202100 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0506 NALGAE (0506) ANALYSIS PSTN 202100UTC 26.0N 161.1E FAIR MOVE W SLOWLY PRES 992HPA MXWD 045KT 30KT 200NM NORTHEAST 120NM SOUTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 212100UTC 29.2N 159.0E 80NM 70% MOVE NNW 08KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 45HF 221800UTC 31.7N 157.8E 150NM 70% MOVE N 06KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 69HF 231800UTC 32.8N 158.3E 220NM 70% MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT = ** WTJP32 RJTD 202100 *** WARNING 202100. WARNING VALID 212100. STORM WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0506 NALGAE (0506) 992 HPA AT 26.0N 161.1E NORTH OF WAKE MOVING WEST SLOWLY. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 200 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 212100UTC AT 29.2N 159.0E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPZ45 KNHC 202233 *** TCDEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EUGENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT WED JUL 20 2005 EARLIER TODAY...A QUIKSCAT OVERPASS INDICATED THAT EUGENE HAD MAINTAINED A 30-KT CIRCULATION. HOWEVER...THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION FOR MORE THAN 12 HOURS DUE TO THE SYSTEM HAVING BEEN OVER COOL WATER. IT IS ESTIMATED THAT WINDS HAVE NOW DECREASED TO 25 KNOTS. EUGENE IS EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE INTO A NON-CONVECTIVE REMNANT LOW WITHIN 12 HOURS...AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST OVER INCREASING COOLER WATERS. THEREFORE...THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ON EUGENE. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 20/2100Z 22.3N 111.9W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 12HR VT 21/0600Z 23.0N 113.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 24HR VT 21/1800Z 23.5N 114.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 22/0600Z 23.5N 116.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ ** WTPN31 PHNC 202200 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05E (EUGENE) WARNING NR 010 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 201800Z --- NEAR 22.0N 111.5W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT REPEAT POSIT: 22.0N 111.5W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z --- 23.0N 113.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z --- 23.5N 114.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z --- 23.5N 116.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201800Z IS 10 FEET. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE NAVAL PACIFIC METEOROLOGY AND OCEANOGRAPHY CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.// ** WTPN31 PHNC 202200 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05E (EUGENE) WARNING NR 010 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 201800Z --- NEAR 22.0N 111.5W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT REPEAT POSIT: 22.0N 111.5W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z --- 23.0N 113.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z --- 23.5N 114.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z --- 23.5N 116.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201800Z IS 10 FEET. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE NAVAL PACIFIC METEOROLOGY AND OCEANOGRAPHY CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//