** WTSR20 WSSS 200600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTNT35 KNHC 201249 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN HURRICANE EMILY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 39B NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM CDT WED JUL 20 2005 ...EMILY MAKES LANDFALL IN NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER TEXAS COAST FROM PORT MANSFIELD SOUTHWARD TO THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEASTERN MEXICO FROM SOUTH OF THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER TO LA CRUZ AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF LA CRUZ TO CABO ROJO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY TEXAS. A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 8 AM CDT...1300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 97.7 WEST. THIS POSITION IS JUST INLAND OF THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF MEXICO ABOUT 30 MILES... 50 KM...EAST OF SAN FERNANDO MEXICO. THIS IS ALSO ABOUT 75 MILES... 120 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 10 MPH...16 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS... TAKING EMILY FARTHER INLAND ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MEXICO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 125 MPH...205 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS MAKES EMILY A DANGEROUS CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. EMILY WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THIS MORNING AS THE CENTER MOVES FARTHER INLAND...WITH MORE RAPID WEAKENING EXPECTED TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES...260 KM. SAN FERNANDO MEXICO RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 60 MPH...WHILE BROWNSVILLE RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 45 MPH WITH A GUST TO 59 MPH. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 945 MB...27.91 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 7 TO 11 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...WITH HIGHER LEVELS IN BAYS...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS LIKELY OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO WHERE 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE LIKELY WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 15 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS AND THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS. REPEATING THE 8 AM CDT POSITION...24.8 N... 97.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 945 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 10 AM CDT. FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTJP22 RJTD 201200 *** WARNING 201200. WARNING VALID 211200. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. GALE WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0506 NALGAE (0506) UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1000 HPA AT 25.9N 162.8E NORTH OF WAKE MOVING NORTHWEST 08 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 211200UTC AT 29.3N 160.7E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 996 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 221200UTC AT 31.8N 159.2E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 231200UTC AT 33.2N 159.2E WITH 220 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 201200 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0506 NALGAE (0506) UPGRADED FROM TD ANALYSIS PSTN 201200UTC 25.9N 162.8E FAIR MOVE NW 08KT PRES 1000HPA MXWD 035KT 30KT 120NM FORECAST 24HF 211200UTC 29.3N 160.7E 80NM 70% MOVE NNW 09KT PRES 996HPA MXWD 040KT 48HF 221200UTC 31.8N 159.2E 150NM 70% MOVE NNW 07KT PRES 992HPA MXWD 045KT 72HF 231200UTC 33.2N 159.2E 220NM 70% MOVE N SLOWLY PRES 992HPA MXWD 045KT = ** WTCA45 TJSJ 201315 *** TCPSP5 BOLETIN HURACAN EMILY ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 39B NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 8 AM CDT MIERCOLES 20 DE JULIO DE 2005 ...EMILY ENTRA A TIERRA EN EL NORESTE DE MEXICO COMO UN HURACAN DE CATEGORIA TRES... UN AVISO DE HURACAN ESTA EN EFECTO PARA LA COSTA BAJA DE TEXAS DESDE PORT MANSFIELD HACIA EL SUR HASTA LA FRONTERA DE TEXAS Y MEXICO. UN AVISO DE HURACAN PERMANECE EN EFECTO PARA EL NORESTE DE MEXICO DESDE EL SUR DE LA FRONTERA DE TEXAS Y MEXICO HASTA LA CRUZ Y UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA EN EFECTO DESDE EL SUR DE LA CRUZ HASTA CABO ROJO. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PERMANECE EN EFECTO AL NORTE DE PORT MANSFIELD HASTA LA BAHIA BAFFIN TEXAS. UN AVISO DE HURACAN O DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE HURACAN O TORMENTA TROPICAL...RESPECTIVAMENTE...SE ESPERAN DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS PREPARATIVOS PARA PROTEGER VIDA Y PROPIEDAD DEBEN DE SER COMPLETADOS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA EN SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE TIERRA...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA DE METEOROLOGIA LOCAL. A LAS 8 AM CDT...1300Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN EMILY ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 24.8 NORTE...LONGITUD 97.7 OESTE. ESTA POSICION ES JUSTO SOBRE TIERRA EN LA COSTA NORESTE DE MEXICO COMO A 30 MILLAS... 50 KM... AL ESTE DE SAN FERNANDO MEXICO. ESTO TAMBIEN ES COMO A 75 MILLAS... 120 KM...AL SUR-SURESTE DE BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. EMILY SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE A CERCA DE 10 MPH...16 KM/HR.Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL CONTINUE POR LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS...LLEVANDO A EMILY MAS TIERRA ADENTRO A TRAVES DEL NORESTE DE MEXICO. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 125 MPH...205 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. ESTO HACE DE EMILY UN PELIGROSO HURACAN DE CATEGORIA TRES EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. EMILY SE DEBILITARA GRADUALMENTE ESTA MANANA A MEDIDA QUE EL CENTRO SE MUEVA MAS TIERRA ADENTRO...ESPERANDOSE UN DEBILITAMIENTO MAS RAPIDO ESTA NOCHE Y EL JUEVES. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 70 MILLAS... 110 KM...DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 160 MILLAS...260 KM. SAN FERNANDO MEXICO RECIENTEMENTE REPORTO UNA RAFAGA DE VIENTO DE 60 MPH...MIENTRAS QUE BROWNSVILLE RECIENTEMENTE REPORTO VIENTOS SOSTENIDOS DE 45 MPH CON UNA RAFAGA DE 59 MPH. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 945 MB...27.91 PULGADAS. SE PUEDEN ESPERAR INUNDACIONES COSTERAS POR MAREJADAS CICLONICAS DE 7 A 11 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA...CON NIVELES MAYORES EN LAS BAHIAS...ACOMPANADAS POR GRANDES Y PELIGROSAS OLAS ROMPIENTES...CERCA Y AL NORTE DE DONDE EL CENTRO ENTRE A TIERRA. LA LLUVIA MAS FUERTE ES PROBABLE SOBRE EL NORESTE DE MEXICO DONDE SON POSIBLES DE 5 A 10 PULGADAS CON POSIBLES CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE HASTA 15 PULGADAS EN LAS MONTANAS. ESTAS LLUVIAS PUEDEN CAUSAR INUNDACIONES REPENTINAS Y DERRUMBES QUE PUEDEN PONER EN RIESGO LAS VIDAS. SE ESPERAN ACUMULACIONES DE LLUVIA DE 2 A 4 PULGADAS SOBRE EL SUR DE TEXAS Y EL VALLE BAJO DE RIO GRANDE. SON POSIBLES TORNADOS AISLADOS SOBRE EL SUR Y SUR-CENTRAL DE TEXAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 8 AM CDT...24.8 NORTE... 97.7 OESTE. MOVIENDOSE AL...OESTE A CERCA DE 10 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 125 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA... 945 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 10 AM CDT. PRONOSTICADOR STEWART $$ ** WTPQ20 BABJ 201200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS NALGAE 0506 (0506) INITIAL TIME 201200 UTC 00HR 25.9N 162.8E 998HPA 18M/S 30KTS 180KM P12HR NNW 15KM/H P+24HR 29.2N 159.4E 995HPA 20M/S P+48HR 31.6N 158.8E 990HPA 23M/S P+72HR 33.0N 160.2E 990HPA 23M/S= ** WTKO20 RKSL 201200 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 1 NAME TS 0506 NALGAE ANALYSIS POSITION 201200UTC 25.9N 162.8E MOVEMENT NW 15KT PRES/VMAX 998HPA 35KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 211200UTC 28.7N 160.2E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 994HPA 39KT 48HR POSITION 221200UTC 31.4N 158.4E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 990HPA 45KT 72HR POSITION 231200UTC 33.3N 157.9E WITHIN 160NM PRES/VMAX 990HPA 45KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTNT55 KNHC 201345 *** TCEAT5 HURRICANE EMILY TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATE NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 9 AM CDT WED JUL 20 2005 AT 9 AM CDT...1400Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED INLAND OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO NEAR LATITUDE 24.9 NORTH... LONGITUDE 97.9 WEST...OR ABOUT 15 MILES... 25 KM... EAST-NORTHEAST OF SAN FERNANDO MEXICO AND ABOUT 75 MILES...120 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTPN31 PGTW 201500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 06W (NALGAE) WARNING NR 003 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 201200Z --- NEAR 25.6N 162.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 25.6N 162.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 210000Z --- 27.1N 161.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 211200Z --- 28.6N 159.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 220000Z --- 29.9N 158.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 221200Z --- 31.2N 157.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 231200Z --- 34.4N 155.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 13 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z --- 39.4N 155.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 16 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 251200Z --- 44.2N 160.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 201500Z POSITION NEAR 26.0N 162.3E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 06W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 445 NM NORTH- NORTHWEST OF WAKE ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201200Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 202100Z, 210300Z, 210900Z AND 211500Z.// ** WTNT45 KNHC 201441 *** TCDAT5 HURRICANE EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER 40 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT WED JUL 20 2005 DATA FROM THE BROWNSVILLE WSR-88D DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED VELOCITIES THAT SUPPORTED 110 KT RIGHT AT LANDFALL...WITH APPROXIMATE SURFACE WIND ESTIMATES ALONG THE COAST OF 100 KT RIGHT UP UNTIL ABOUT 1330Z AFTER EMILY HAD MOVED INLAND. HOWEVER...OVER THE PAST HOUR... DOPPLER VELOCITIES HAVE DECREASED TO AROUND 100 KT...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 90 KT. EVEN THOUGH EMILY IS AT LEAST 30 N MI INLAND...IT STILL HAS GOOD INNER-CORE STRUCTURE AND BOTH THE EYE AND EYEWALL REMAIN WELL DEFINED...AS DOES THE OUTFLOW PATTERN. THE INITIAL MOTION IS FINALLY A STEADY 280/09. UPPER AIR DATA AT 12Z INDICATES THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER CENTRAL TEXAS HAS REMAINED INTACT AND HAS BUILT WESTWARD INTO WEST TEXAS. THIS SHOULD KEEP EMILY ON A GENERAL WESTERLY TRACK FOR THE NEXT 18-24 HOURS. BY 24 HOURS...THE 10000 FT PEAKS OF THE SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL MOUNTAIN RANGE WILL LIKELY SEPARATE THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION FROM THE MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS. THE SURFACE/LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION MAY ACTUALLY REMAIN BEHIND EAST OF THE MOUNTAIN RANGE...WHILE THE REST OF THE CIRCULATION MOVES FARTHER WESTWARD. EMILY SHOULD RAPIDLY WEAKEN TODAY AND WILL LIKELY BE BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH BY LATE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE CENTER OF EMILY WILL BE WELL INLAND BY 12 HOURS...TROPICAL STORM STATUS IS BEING MAINTAINED AT THAT TIME DUE TO THE LARGE TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WIND FIELD THAT EXISTS TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST OVER WATER AND ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO. HOWEVER...COMPLETE DISSIPATION SHOULD OCCUR BY 24 TO 36 HOURS WHEN EMILY IS OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN MEXICO. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 20/1500Z 25.0N 98.1W 90 KT...INLAND 12HR VT 21/0000Z 25.1N 99.4W 40 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND 24HR VT 21/1200Z 25.2N 101.1W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW INLAND 36HR VT 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED INLAND $$ ** WTNT25 KNHC 201442 *** TCMAT5 HURRICANE EMILY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 40 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052005 1500Z WED JUL 20 2005 A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEASTERN MEXICO FROM SOUTH OF THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER SOUTHWARD TO LA CRUZ MEXICO. AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE SOUTH TEXAS COAST HAS BEEN REPLACED BY A TROPICAL STORM WARNING...AND THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS SOUTHWARD TO THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER...AND ALSO FROM SOUTH OF LA CRUZ SOUTHWARD TO CABO ROJO MEXICO. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 98.1W AT 20/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 955 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 60NE 35SE 25SW 40NW. 50 KT.......100NE 60SE 40SW 65NW. 34 KT.......140NE 110SE 75SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..270NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 98.1W AT 20/1500Z AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.8N 97.6W FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 25.1N 99.4W...DISSIPATING INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...140NE 110SE 35SW 45NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 25.2N 101.1W...REMNANT LOW INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED INLAND REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.0N 98.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT75 KNHC 201443 *** SPFAT5 HURRICANE EMILY PROBABILITIES NUMBER 40 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 AM CDT WED JUL 20 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 98.1 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 7AM CDT SAT JUL 23 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 25.2N 101.1W 43 X X X 43 MMSO 238N 982W 47 X X X 47 99 X X X 99 BROWNSVILLE TX 84 X X X 84 99 X X X 99 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 7AM THU FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 7AM THU TO 7PM THU C FROM 7PM THU TO 7AM FRI D FROM 7AM FRI TO 7AM SAT E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 7AM SAT X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT35 KNHC 201445 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN HURRICANE EMILY ADVISORY NUMBER 40 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 AM CDT WED JUL 20 2005 ...EMILY WELL INLAND OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO... ...WEAKENS TO A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEASTERN MEXICO FROM SOUTH OF THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER SOUTHWARD TO LA CRUZ MEXICO. AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE SOUTH TEXAS COAST HAS BEEN REPLACED BY A TROPICAL STORM WARNING...AND THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS SOUTHWARD TO THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER...AND ALSO FROM SOUTH OF LA CRUZ SOUTHWARD TO CABO ROJO MEXICO. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.0 NORTH... LONGITUDE 98.1 WEST OR ABOUT 15 MILES ... 25 KM... NORTHEAST OF SAN FERNANDO MEXICO AND ABOUT 75 MILES ... 115 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS... TAKING EMILY FARTHER INLAND ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MEXICO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EMILY IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. RAPID WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS EMILY MOVES FARTHER INLAND OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES...260 KM...MAINLY NORTHEAST THROUGH EAST OF THE CENTER. RECENTLY...MATAMOROS MEXICO REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 46 MPH WITH A GUST TO 65 MPH...BROWNSVILLE TEXAS REPORTED A WIND GUST TO 63 MPH...AND LA PESCA MEXICO REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 49 MPH. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 955 MB...28.20 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 9 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...WITH HIGHER LEVELS IN BAYS...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF MEXICO AND ALONG THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS COAST TODAY. STORM SURGE VALUES WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE BY THIS EVENING. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS LIKELY OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO WHERE 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE LIKELY WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 15 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS AND THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS. REPEATING THE 10 AM CDT POSITION...25.0 N... 98.1 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 955 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 4 PM CDT. FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTPZ45 KNHC 201449 *** TCDEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EUGENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT WED JUL 20 2005 DEEP CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED...AND THE SYSTEM IS NOW A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS WITH SOME MULTI-LAYERED MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUD CONVECTIVE DEBRIS. SINCE EUGENE WILL BE MOVING OVER WATERS COOLER THAN 24 DEG C...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS. ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY. FIRST LIGHT VISIBLE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE CENTER IS LOCATED SOMEWHAT TO THE NORTHEAST OF PREVIOUS ESTIMATES. THEREFORE SOME RELOCATION IS REQUIRED. INITIAL MOTION IS ROUGHLY 315/8. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST IS ANTICIPATED AS EUGENE...OR ITS REMNANT...FOLLOWS THE LOW-LEVEL TRADEWIND FLOW. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 20/1500Z 21.7N 111.2W 30 KT 12HR VT 21/0000Z 22.3N 112.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 24HR VT 21/1200Z 22.7N 114.6W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 22/0000Z 23.0N 116.8W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 22/1200Z 23.0N 119.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ ** WTPZ25 KNHC 201449 *** TCMEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EUGENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052005 1500Z WED JUL 20 2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 111.2W AT 20/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 111.2W AT 20/1500Z AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 110.9W FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 22.3N 112.5W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 22.7N 114.6W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 23.0N 116.8W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 23.0N 119.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.7N 111.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTNT85 KNHC 201457 *** TCVAT5 EMILY WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1000 AM CDT WED JUL 20 2005 .HURRICANE EMILY TXC061-489-GMZ130-150-170-202100- /E.CAN.KNHC.HU.W.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /E.NEW.KNHC.TR.W.1005.050720T1500Z-000000T0000Z/ 1000 AM CDT WED JUL 20 2005 BROWNSVILLE-TX 26.05N 97.17W PORT-MANSFIELD-TX 26.59N 97.29W $$ TXC261-GMZ155-175-202100- /E.CAN.KNHC.TR.W.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1000 AM CDT WED JUL 20 2005 PORT-MANSFIELD-TX 26.59N 97.29W BAFFIN-BAY-TX 27.29N 97.38W $$ ATTN...WFO...BRO... ** WTUS84 KBRO 201515 AAA *** HLSBRO TXZ248>257-201800- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT...UPDATED TO EXTEND TORNADO WATCH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX 1015 AM CDT WED JUL 20 2005 ...HURRICANE EMILY HAS MADE LANDFALL OVER NORTHEAST MEXICO... ...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE TEXAS GULF COAST FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO BROWNSVILLE... ...INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT HIDALGO AND STARR COUNTIES IN DEEP SOUTH TEXAS... ...A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL DEEP SOUTH TEXAS... ...A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH 1 PM TODAY... ...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED... ...THE INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ZAPATA...JIM HOGG AND BROOKS COUNTIES HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE LOWER TEXAS COASTLINE WHICH INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES: HIDALGO...CAMERON...WILLACY AND STARR. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... AT 10 AM CDT...A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 PM CDT FOR ALL OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 1 PM CDT FOR ALL OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. THE QUEEN ISABELLA CAUSEWAY IS OPEN FROM PORT ISABEL TO SOUTH PADRE ISLAND. PLEASE CHECK WITH LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OR THE CITY OF SOUTH PADRE ISLAND PRIOR TO RETURNING. NO OTHER EVACUATIONS HAVE BEEN DECLARED FOR CAMERON... WILLACY...AND KENEDY COUNTIES. THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF SOUTH PADRE ISLAND...PORT ISABEL...AND PORT MANSFIELD ALTHOUGH STORM SHELTERS REMAIN OPEN. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 10 AM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 98.0 WEST OR ABOUT 65 MILES...SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF MATAMOROS MEXICO AND ABOUT 75 MILES... SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 955 MILLIBARS. EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. EMILY WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS INLAND TODAY. PRELIMINARY WEATHER INFORMATION COLLECTED INDICATED SUSTAINED WINDS AT BROWNSVILLE OF 48 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 63 MPH. HARLINGEN REPORTED WINDS OF 51 MPH GUSTING TO 59 MPH AND MCALLEN REPORTED WINDS OF 38 MPH AND GUSTS TO 47 MPH. RAINFALL TOTALS AS OF 10 AM CDT INCLUDE 2.01 INCHES AT BROWNSVILLE...1.81 INCHES AT MCALLEN AND 2.54 INCHES AT HARLINGEN. SEVERAL REPORTS OF DOWNED TREES AND POWER LINES HAVE BEEN RECEIVED WITH AT TORNADO NEAR RIO HONDO TEXAS. ADDITIONAL WIND DAMAGE REPORTS WERE RECEIVED FROM CITY OFFICIAL ON SOUTH PADRE ISLAND. MOST DAMAGE HAS BEEN ISOLATED AND ADDITIONAL REPORTS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE ADVICE OF LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AND OTHER GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE WAS AT 616 AM CDT RISING TO 1.7 FEET ABOVE MEAN LOWER LOW WATER LEVEL. AS THE TIDE RECEDES AND GIVEN THE CURRENT POSITION OF EMILY...STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED GRADUAL DECREASE AS SWELL TRAJECTORY MOVES FROM SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH. THE COMBINATION OF STORM SURGE...AND VERY ROUGH SURF WILL PRODUCE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG SOUTH AND EAST FACING SHORES OF SOUTH PADRE ISLAND TODAY. WATER WILL BEGIN TO RECEDE FROM THE BROWNSVILLE SHIP CHANNEL AND LAGUNA MADRE THIS AFTERNOON. ...WIND IMPACTS... AT 10 AM CDT...MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WITH HURRICANE EMILY HAVE DROPPED FROM NEAR 125 MPH TO 100 MPH. A GRADUAL DECREASE IN WIND SPEED IS EXPECTED TODAY. SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL AREAS FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO BROWNSVILLE. ...OTHER IMPACTS... THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS HIGH AS EMILY CONTINUES TO CHURN THE WEST GULF WATERS. SEAS OF 10 TO 14 FEET ARE EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS WITH EXTREMELY ROUGH SURF ALONG THE BEACHES OF SOUTH PADRE ISLAND. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS WITH HURRICANE EMILY. ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE...GENERALLY FROM MERCEDES TO ZAPATA TEXAS. ALL RESIDENTS SHOULD BE AWARE OF THE DANGER POSED BY FLOODING RAINS. NEVER DRIVE INTO WATER OF UNKNOWN DEPTH. REMEMBER... TURN AROUND DON'T DROWN. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 1 PM CDT. $$ KVAP ** WTCA45 TJSJ 201521 *** TCPSP5 BOLETIN HURACAN EMILY ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 40 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 10 AM CDT MIERCOLES 20 DE JULIO DE 2005 ...EMILY BIEN TIERRA ADENTRO SOBRE EL NORESTE DE MEXICO... ...SE DEBILITA A UN HURACAN DE CATEGORIA DOS... UN AVISO DE HURACAN PERMANECE EN EFECTO PARA EL NORESTE DE MEXICO DESDE EL SUR DE LA FRONTERA DE TEXAS Y MEXICO HASTA LA CRUZ MEXICO. A LAS 10 AM CDT...1500Z...EL AVISO DE HURACAN PARA LA COSTA SUR DE TEXAS HA SIDO REMPLAZADA POR UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL...Y EL AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL AL NORTE DE PORT MANSFIELD HA SIDO DESCONTINUADO. AHORA ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DESDE PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS HACIA EL SUR HASTA LA FRONTERA DE TEXAS Y MEXICO...Y TAMBIEN DESDE EL SUR DE LA CRUZ HACIA EL SUR HASTA CABO ROJO MEXICO. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA EN SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE TIERRA...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA DE METEOROLOGIA LOCAL. A LAS 10 AM CDT...1500Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN EMILY ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 25.0 NORTE...LONGITUD 98.1 OESTE O COMO A 15 MILLAS... 25 KM... AL NORESTE DE SAN FERNANDO MEXICO Y COMO A 75 MILLAS... 115 KM...AL SUR-SUROESTE DE BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. EMILY SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE A CERCA DE 10 MPH...17 KM/HR Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL CONTINUE POR LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS...LLEVANDO A EMILY MAS TIERRA ADENTRO A TRAVES DEL NORESTE DE MEXICO. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 105 MPH...165 KM/HR... CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. EMILY ES UN HURACAN DE CATEGORIA DOS EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. SE PRONOSTICA UN DEBILITAMIENTO RAPIDO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS A MEDIDA QUE EMILY SE MUEVE MAS TIERRA ADENTRO SOBRE TERRENO MAS ALTO. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 70 MILLAS... 110 KM...DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 160 MILLAS...260 KM MAYORMENTE AL NORESTE HASTA EL ESTE DEL CENTRO. MATAMOROS MEXICO RECIENTEMENTE REPORTO VIENTO SOSTENIDO DE 46 MPH CON UNA RAFAGA HASTA 65 MPH...BROWNSVILLE TEXAS REPORTO UNA RAFAGA DE VIENTO DE 63 MPH...Y LA PESCA MEXICO REPORTO UNA RAFAGA DE VIENTO DE 49 MPH. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 955 MB...28.20 PULGADAS. SE PUEDEN ESPERAR INUNDACIONES COSTERAS POR MAREJADAS CICLONICAS DE 5 A 9 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA...CON NIVELES MAYORES EN LAS BAHIAS...ACOMPANADAS POR GRANDES Y PELIGROSAS OLAS ROMPIENTES...A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA NORESTE DE MEXICO Y A LO LARGO DEL EXTREMO SUR DE LA COSTA DE TEXAS HOY. LOS VALORES DE LA MAREJADA CICLONICA DISMINURAN GRADUALMENTE DURANTE EL ANOCHECER. LA LLUVIA MAS FUERTE ES PROBABLE SOBRE EL NORESTE DE MEXICO DONDE SON POSIBLES DE 5 A 10 PULGADAS CON POSIBLES CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE HASTA 15 PULGADAS EN LAS MONTANAS. ESTAS LLUVIAS PUEDEN CAUSAR INUNDACIONES REPENTINAS Y DERRUMBES QUE PUEDEN PONER EN RIESGO LAS VIDAS. SE ESPERAN ACUMULACIONES DE LLUVIA DE 2 A 4 PULGADAS SOBRE EL SUR DE TEXAS Y EL VALLE BAJO DE RIO GRANDE. SON POSIBLES TORNADOS AISLADOS SOBRE EL SUR DE TEXAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 10 AM CDT...25.0 NORTE... 98.1 OESTE. MOVIENDOSE HACIA EL...OESTE A CERCA DE 10 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 105 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA... 955 MILIBARAS. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LA 1 PM CDT SEGUIDA POR LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 4 PM CDT. PRONOSTICADOR STEWART $$ ** WTPN31 PHNC 201600 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05E (EUGENE) WARNING NR 009 DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 05E 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 201200Z --- NEAR 21.5N 110.9W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 21.5N 110.9W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 210000Z --- 22.3N 112.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 211200Z --- 22.7N 114.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 220000Z --- 23.0N 116.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 221200Z --- 23.0N 119.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 202200Z, 210400Z, 211000Z AND 211600Z.// ** WTPN31 PHNC 201600 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05E (EUGENE) WARNING NR 009 DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 05E 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 201200Z --- NEAR 21.5N 110.9W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 21.5N 110.9W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 210000Z --- 22.3N 112.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 211200Z --- 22.7N 114.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 220000Z --- 23.0N 116.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 221200Z --- 23.0N 119.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 202200Z, 210400Z, 211000Z AND 211600Z.// ** WTPQ21 RJTD 201500 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0506 NALGAE (0506) ANALYSIS PSTN 201500UTC 26.4N 161.8E FAIR MOVE NW 12KT PRES 1000HPA MXWD 035KT 30KT 180NM NORTHEAST 100NM SOUTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 211500UTC 29.7N 160.3E 80NM 70% MOVE NNW 09KT PRES 996HPA MXWD 040KT 45HF 221200UTC 31.8N 159.2E 150NM 70% MOVE NNW 07KT PRES 992HPA MXWD 045KT 69HF 231200UTC 33.2N 159.2E 220NM 70% MOVE N SLOWLY PRES 992HPA MXWD 045KT = ** WTNT80 EGRR 201717 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 20.07.2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EUGENE ANALYSED POSITION : 20.7N 111.6W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP052005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 20.07.2005 20.7N 111.6W MODERATE 00UTC 21.07.2005 22.1N 112.3W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 21.07.2005 22.4N 113.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 22.07.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH HURRICANE EMILY ANALYSED POSITION : 24.7N 97.4W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 20.07.2005 24.7N 97.8W STRONG 00UTC 21.07.2005 24.7N 99.0W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 21.07.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 201717 ** WTNT35 KNHC 201757 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN HURRICANE EMILY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 40A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1 PM CDT WED JUL 20 2005 ...EMILY STICK PACKING A PUNCH AS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE WELL INLAND OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEASTERN MEXICO FROM SOUTH OF THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER SOUTHWARD TO LA CRUZ MEXICO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS SOUTHWARD TO THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER...AND ALSO FROM SOUTH OF LA CRUZ SOUTHWARD TO CABO ROJO MEXICO. PORTIONS OF BOTH WARNING AREAS WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED OR DOWNGRADED LATER THIS AFTERNOON. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 1 PM CDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.0 NORTH... LONGITUDE 98.7 WEST OR ABOUT 105 MILES ... 170 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MONTERREY MEXICO AND ABOUT 85 MILES ... 135 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MCALLEN TEXAS. EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS... TAKING EMILY FARTHER INLAND ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MEXICO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...MAINLY NEAR THE COASTAL AREAS. EMILY IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS EMILY MOVES FARTHER INLAND OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES...260 KM...ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST THROUGH EAST OF THE CENTER. RECENTLY...MATAMOROS MEXICO AND BROWNSVILLE TEXAS BOTH REPORTED A WIND GUST TO 46 MPH. DOPPLER RADAR DATA FROM BROWNSVILLE TEXAS ALSO INDICATES THAT HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE STILL LIKELY OCCURRING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF MEXICO AND JUST OFFSHORE. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 975 MB...28.79 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...WITH HIGHER LEVELS IN BAYS...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF MEXICO AND ALONG THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS COAST TODAY. STORM SURGE VALUES WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE BY THIS EVENING. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS LIKELY OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO WHERE 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE LIKELY WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 15 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS AND THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS. REPEATING THE 1 PM CDT POSITION...25.0 N... 98.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 975 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 4 PM CDT. FORECASTER STEWART $$