** WTUS84 KBRO 200611 AAB *** HLSBRO TXZ248>257-200730- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT...UPDATED TO EXTEND TORNADO WATCH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX 107 AM CDT WED JUL 20 2005 ...EYE OF MAJOR HURRICANE EMILY WOBBLING TOWARD THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO... ...A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER TEXAS COAST FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO BROWNSVILLE... ...A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE TEXAS GULF COAST FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD... ...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE TEXAS GULF COAST FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD... ...INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ZAPATA... BROOKS...JIM HOGG...HIDALGO AND STARR COUNTIES IN DEEP SOUTH TEXAS... ...A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING... ...A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH 1 AM THIS MORNING... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE LOWER TEXAS COASTLINE WHICH INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES: ZAPATA...STARR...JIM HOGG...BROOKS...HIDALGO... CAMERON...WILLACY AND KENEDY. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... AT MIDNIGHT CDT...RECREATIONAL VEHICLES WERE ORDERED TO EVACUATE FROM CAMERON COUNTY BEACH AREAS YESTERDAY...BUT NO OTHER EVACUATIONS HAVE BEEN DECLARED FOR CAMERON...WILLACY...AND KENEDY COUNTIES. THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF SOUTH PADRE ISLAND...PORT ISABEL...AND PORT MANSFIELD. COUNTY AND CITY OFFICIALS WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY. A TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS BY THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES ASSOCIATED WITH RAINBANDS MOVING INLAND THIS EVENING. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT TONIGHT FOR ALL DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT MIDNIGHT CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.8 WEST OR ABOUT 100 MILES... SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF MATAMOROS MEXICO AND ABOUT 105 MILES... SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 943 MILLIBARS. EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION NEAR 10 MPH IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AND CONTINUE TODAY. GIVEN THIS TRACK...EMILY IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AROUND 5 AM CDT THIS MORNING APPROXIMATELY 85 MILES SOUTH OF BROWNSVILLE...OR ABOUT 60 MILES NORTH OF LA PESCA MEXICO. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... THE TEXAS DEPARTMENT OF PUBLIC SAFETY HAS CLOSED EASTBOUND TRAFFIC OVER QUEEN ISABELLA MEMORIAL CAUSEWAY. RESIDENTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE ADVICE OF LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AND OTHER GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... TIDES ARE PREDICTED TO RUN 1.7 FEET ABOVE MEAN LOWER LOW WATER AT 616 AM CDT THIS MORNING. GIVEN THE CURRENT TRACK OF EMILY...STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO BE 7 TO 10 FEET ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. THE COMBINATION OF HIGH TIDE...STORM SURGE...AND VERY ROUGH SURF ON THIS MORNING WILL PRODUCE COASTAL FLOODING ALONG SOUTH AND EAST FACING SHORES OF SOUTH PADRE ISLAND. ...WIND IMPACTS... AT MIDNIGHT CDT...MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WITH HURRICANE EMILY ARE NEAR 125 MPH. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE AND EMILY COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL. THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST TONIGHT. SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL AREAS WITH WIND GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF PORT MANSFIELD EARLY THIS MORNING. ...OTHER IMPACTS... THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS HIGH AS EMILY APPROACHES. SEAS HAVE INCREASED TO 18 FEET ACROSS THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS AND WAVES OF 20 AND 25 FEET ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. WAVES WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS WITH HURRICANE EMILY. ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 7 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. ALL RESIDENTS SHOULD BE AWARE OF THE DANGER POSED BY FLOODING RAINS. NEVER DRIVE INTO WATER OF UNKNOWN DEPTH. REMEMBER...TURN AROUND DON'T DROWN. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 2 AM CDT. $$ ** WTIN20 DEMS 200620 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE NEW DELHI 20-07-2005 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTIVE CLOUDS OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEAST, ARABIAN SEA, EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTH BAY OF BENGAL (.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 30 DEG. NORTH OVER INDIAN REGION (.) ** WTUS84 KBRO 200633 CCA *** HLSBRO TXZ248>257-200730- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX 130 AM CDT WED JUL 20 2005 ...EYE OF MAJOR HURRICANE EMILY WOBBLING TOWARD THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO... ...A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER TEXAS COAST FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO BROWNSVILLE... ...A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE TEXAS GULF COAST FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD... ...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE TEXAS GULF COAST FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD... ...INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ZAPATA... BROOKS...JIM HOGG...HIDALGO AND STARR COUNTIES IN DEEP SOUTH TEXAS... ...A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING... ...A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE LOWER TEXAS COASTLINE WHICH INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES: ZAPATA...STARR...JIM HOGG...BROOKS...HIDALGO... CAMERON...WILLACY AND KENEDY. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... AT MIDNIGHT CDT...RECREATIONAL VEHICLES WERE ORDERED TO EVACUATE FROM CAMERON COUNTY BEACH AREAS YESTERDAY...BUT NO OTHER EVACUATIONS HAVE BEEN DECLARED FOR CAMERON...WILLACY...AND KENEDY COUNTIES. THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF SOUTH PADRE ISLAND...PORT ISABEL...AND PORT MANSFIELD. COUNTY AND CITY OFFICIALS WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY. A TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS BY THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES ASSOCIATED WITH RAINBANDS MOVING INLAND THIS EVENING. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT TONIGHT FOR ALL DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT MIDNIGHT CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.8 WEST OR ABOUT 100 MILES... SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF MATAMOROS MEXICO AND ABOUT 105 MILES... SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 943 MILLIBARS. EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION NEAR 10 MPH IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AND CONTINUE TODAY. GIVEN THIS TRACK...EMILY IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AROUND 5 AM CDT THIS MORNING APPROXIMATELY 85 MILES SOUTH OF BROWNSVILLE...OR ABOUT 60 MILES NORTH OF LA PESCA MEXICO. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... THE TEXAS DEPARTMENT OF PUBLIC SAFETY HAS CLOSED EASTBOUND TRAFFIC OVER QUEEN ISABELLA MEMORIAL CAUSEWAY. RESIDENTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE ADVICE OF LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AND OTHER GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... TIDES ARE PREDICTED TO RUN 1.7 FEET ABOVE MEAN LOWER LOW WATER AT 616 AM CDT THIS MORNING. GIVEN THE CURRENT TRACK OF EMILY...STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO BE 7 TO 10 FEET ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. THE COMBINATION OF HIGH TIDE...STORM SURGE...AND VERY ROUGH SURF ON THIS MORNING WILL PRODUCE COASTAL FLOODING ALONG SOUTH AND EAST FACING SHORES OF SOUTH PADRE ISLAND. ...WIND IMPACTS... AT MIDNIGHT CDT...MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WITH HURRICANE EMILY ARE NEAR 125 MPH. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE AND EMILY COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL. THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST TONIGHT. SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL AREAS WITH WIND GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF PORT MANSFIELD EARLY THIS MORNING. ...OTHER IMPACTS... THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS HIGH AS EMILY APPROACHES. SEAS HAVE INCREASED TO 18 FEET ACROSS THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS AND WAVES OF 20 AND 25 FEET ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. WAVES WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS WITH HURRICANE EMILY. ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 7 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. ALL RESIDENTS SHOULD BE AWARE OF THE DANGER POSED BY FLOODING RAINS. NEVER DRIVE INTO WATER OF UNKNOWN DEPTH. REMEMBER...TURN AROUND DON'T DROWN. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 2 AM CDT. $$ ** WTPQ20 RJTD 200600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TD DOWNGRADED FROM TS 0505 HAITANG (0505) ANALYSIS PSTN 200600UTC 28N 118E MOVE NNW SLOWLY PRES 996HPA = ** WTNT35 KNHC 200651 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN HURRICANE EMILY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 38B NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM CDT WED JUL 20 2005 ...EYE OF MAJOR HURRICANE EMILY CONTINUES ERRATIC WOBBLING TOWARD THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER TEXAS COAST FROM PORT MANSFIELD SOUTHWARD TO THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEASTERN MEXICO FROM SOUTH OF THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER TO LA CRUZ AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF LA CRUZ TO CABO ROJO. A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY TEXAS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 2 AM CDT...0700Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 96.9 WEST OR ABOUT 90 MILES... 145 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MATAMOROS MEXICO AND ABOUT 95 MILES... 155 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. RADAR DATA FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR IN BROWNSVILLE SHOWS THAT WHILE THE EYE OF EMILY IS WOBBLING...THE HURRICANE IS MOVING GENERALLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION NEAR 10 MPH IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATER THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF EMILY WILL BE NEAR THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO THIS MORNING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 125 MPH...205 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EMILY IS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE... AND EMILY COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES...260 KM. OUTER RAINBANDS BRINGING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE COASTS OF FAR SOUTH TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 45 MPH HAVE BEEN REPORTED IN THE BROWNSVILLE- PORT ISABEL AREA DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 944 MB...27.88 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 7 TO 11 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...WITH HIGHER LEVELS IN BAYS...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS LIKELY OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO WHERE 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE LIKELY WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 15 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS AND THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER FAR SOUTH TEXAS TONIGHT...AND OVER SOUTHERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY. REPEATING THE 2 AM CDT POSITION...24.6 N... 96.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 944 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 4 AM CDT. FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTKO20 RKSL 200600 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 10 NAME TD 0505 HAITANG ANALYSIS POSITION 200600UTC 27.5N 117.8E MOVEMENT NW 4KT PRES 996HPA KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPQ20 BABJ 200600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS HAITANG 0505 (0505) INITIAL TIME 200600 UTC 00HR 27.8N 117.6E 996HPA 18M/S 30KTS 300KM P12HR NW 10KM/H P+24HR 31.0N 114.0E 1000HPA 12M/S= ** WTUS84 KBRO 200703 AAA *** HLSBRO TXZ248>257-200930- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT...UPDATED TO EXTEND TORNADO WATCH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX 203 AM CDT WED JUL 20 2005 ...EYE OF MAJOR HURRICANE EMILY CONTINUES ERRATIC WOBBLING TOWARD THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO... ...A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER TEXAS COAST FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO BROWNSVILLE... ...A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE TEXAS GULF COAST FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD... ...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE TEXAS GULF COAST FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD... ...INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ZAPATA... BROOKS...JIM HOGG...HIDALGO AND STARR COUNTIES IN DEEP SOUTH TEXAS... ...A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING... ...A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH 1 PM TODAY... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE LOWER TEXAS COASTLINE WHICH INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES: ZAPATA...STARR...JIM HOGG...BROOKS...HIDALGO... CAMERON...WILLACY AND KENEDY. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... AT 2 AM CDT...RECREATIONAL VEHICLES WERE ORDERED TO EVACUATE FROM CAMERON COUNTY BEACH AREAS YESTERDAY...BUT NO OTHER EVACUATIONS HAVE BEEN DECLARED FOR CAMERON...WILLACY...AND KENEDY COUNTIES. THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF SOUTH PADRE ISLAND...PORT ISABEL...AND PORT MANSFIELD. COUNTY AND CITY OFFICIALS WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY. A TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS BY THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES ASSOCIATED WITH RAINBANDS MOVING INLAND THIS MORNING. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 1 PM CDT FOR ALL DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 2 AM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.9 WEST OR ABOUT 90 MILES... SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF MATAMOROS MEXICO AND ABOUT 95 MILES... SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 944 MILLIBARS. EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION NEAR 10 MPH IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AND CONTINUE TODAY. GIVEN THIS TRACK...EMILY IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AROUND 5 AM CDT THIS MORNING APPROXIMATELY 85 MILES SOUTH OF BROWNSVILLE...OR ABOUT 60 MILES NORTH OF LA PESCA MEXICO. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE ADVICE OF LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AND OTHER GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... TIDES ARE PREDICTED TO RUN 1.7 FEET ABOVE MEAN LOWER LOW WATER AT 616 AM CDT THIS MORNING. GIVEN THE CURRENT TRACK OF EMILY...STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO BE 7 TO 10 FEET ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. THE COMBINATION OF HIGH TIDE...STORM SURGE...AND VERY ROUGH SURF ON THIS MORNING WILL PRODUCE COASTAL FLOODING ALONG SOUTH AND EAST FACING SHORES OF SOUTH PADRE ISLAND. ...WIND IMPACTS... AT 2 AM CDT...MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WITH HURRICANE EMILY ARE NEAR 125 MPH. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE AND EMILY COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL. THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST TONIGHT. SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL AREAS WITH WIND GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF PORT MANSFIELD EARLY THIS MORNING. ...OTHER IMPACTS... THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS HIGH AS EMILY APPROACHES. SEAS HAVE INCREASED TO 18 FEET ACROSS THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS AND WAVES OF 20 AND 25 FEET ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. WAVES WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS WITH HURRICANE EMILY. ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 7 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. ALL RESIDENTS SHOULD BE AWARE OF THE DANGER POSED BY FLOODING RAINS. NEVER DRIVE INTO WATER OF UNKNOWN DEPTH. REMEMBER...TURN AROUND DON'T DROWN. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 4 AM CDT. $$ ** WTPQ21 RJTD 200600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TD ANALYSIS PSTN 200600UTC 24.7N 163.4E FAIR MOVE NW 07KT PRES 1004HPA MXWD 030KT FORECAST 24HF 210600UTC 27.5N 160.8E 150NM 70% MOVE NW 09KT PRES 998HPA MXWD 035KT = ** WTPQ31 RJTD 200600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 2 FOR TD LOCATED AT 24.7N 163.4E 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 200600 UTC IS FAIR. TD WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TD WILL MOVE NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TD WILL BE GRADED UP TO TS WITHIN 24 HOURS. TD WILL DEVELOP BECAUSE CYCLONE WILL STAY IN HIGH SST AREA. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 2.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTNT55 KNHC 200758 *** TCEAT5 HURRICANE EMILY TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATE NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 3 AM CDT WED JUL 20 2005 AT 3 AM CDT... 0800Z... THE CENTER OF MAJOR HURRICANE EMILY WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 97.1 WEST OR ABOUT 35 MILES... 55 KM EAST-NORTHEAST OF BAHIA ALGODONES MEXICO AND 90 MILES... 145 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTPZ25 KNHC 200819 *** TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM EUGENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052005 0900Z WED JUL 20 2005 AT 8 PM PDT...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE ENTIRE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 111.0W AT 20/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 70SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 125SE 125SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 111.0W AT 20/0900Z AT 20/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 110.5W FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 21.8N 112.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 22.5N 114.4W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 23.0N 116.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 23.2N 118.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.1N 111.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/1500Z FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN $$ ** WTPZ25 KNHC 200829 *** TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM EUGENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052005 0900Z WED JUL 20 2005 ...REMOVED PREVIOUS DISCONTINUED TROPICAL STORM WATCH STATEMENT... TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 111.0W AT 20/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 70SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 125SE 125SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 111.0W AT 20/0900Z AT 20/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 110.5W FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 21.8N 112.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 22.5N 114.4W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 23.0N 116.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 23.2N 118.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.1N 111.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/1500Z FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN $$ ** WTNT75 KNHC 200831 *** SPFAT5 HURRICANE EMILY PROBABILITIES NUMBER 39 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 4 AM CDT WED JUL 20 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 4 AM CDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 97.2 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 1AM CDT SAT JUL 23 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 24.8N 100.7W 40 X X X 40 MMSO 238N 982W 51 X X X 51 99 X X X 99 BROWNSVILLE TX 65 X X X 65 99 X X X 99 GULF 25N 96W 99 X X X 99 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 1AM THU FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 1AM THU TO 1PM THU C FROM 1PM THU TO 1AM FRI D FROM 1AM FRI TO 1AM SAT E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 1AM SAT X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT35 KNHC 200833 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN HURRICANE EMILY ADVISORY NUMBER 39 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 4 AM CDT WED JUL 20 2005 ...OUTER EYEWALL OF MAJOR HURRICANE EMILY MOVING ONTO THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF MEXICO... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER TEXAS COAST FROM PORT MANSFIELD SOUTHWARD TO THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEASTERN MEXICO FROM SOUTH OF THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER TO LA CRUZ AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF LA CRUZ TO CABO ROJO. AT 4 AM CDT...0900 UTC...THE HURRICANE WATCH IS DISCONTINUED NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY TEXAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY. A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 4 AM CDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 97.2 WEST OR ABOUT 80 MILES... 125 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MATAMOROS MEXICO AND ABOUT 85 MILES... 135 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED TODAY. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF EMILY ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF MEXICO NEAR SAN FERNANDO DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 125 MPH...205 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS MAKES EMILY A DANGEROUS CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL...AND THERE IS STILL A CHANCE THAT EMILY COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER LANDFALL. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES...260 KM. WINDS ARE GUSTING TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE IN SQUALLS OVER SOUTH TEXAS. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 943 MB...27.85 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 7 TO 11 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...WITH HIGHER LEVELS IN BAYS...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS LIKELY OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO WHERE 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE LIKELY WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 15 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS AND THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER FAR SOUTH TEXAS TONIGHT...AND OVER SOUTHERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY. REPEATING THE 4 AM CDT POSITION...24.7 N... 97.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 943 MB. INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 6 AM CDT AND 8 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 10 AM CDT. FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT25 KNHC 200833 *** TCMAT5 HURRICANE EMILY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 39 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052005 0900Z WED JUL 20 2005 A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER TEXAS COAST FROM PORT MANSFIELD SOUTHWARD TO THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEASTERN MEXICO FROM SOUTH OF THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER TO LA CRUZ AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF LA CRUZ TO CABO ROJO. AT 4 AM CDT...0900 UTC...THE HURRICANE WATCH IS DISCONTINUED NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY TEXAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY. A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.7N 97.2W AT 20/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 943 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT. 64 KT....... 60NE 35SE 30SW 50NW. 50 KT.......100NE 60SE 45SW 75NW. 34 KT.......140NE 110SE 90SW 110NW. 12 FT SEAS..270NE 120SE 120SW 240NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.7N 97.2W AT 20/0900Z AT 20/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 96.8W FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 24.8N 98.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 25SW 35NW. 50 KT...100NE 60SE 30SW 45NW. 34 KT...140NE 110SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 24.8N 100.7W...INLAND DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.7N 97.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/1500Z FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT85 KNHC 200836 *** TCVAT5 EMILY WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 400 AM CDT WED JUL 20 2005 .HURRICANE EMILY TXC061-489-GMZ130-150-170-201500- /E.CON.KNHC.HU.W.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 400 AM CDT WED JUL 20 2005 BROWNSVILLE-TX 26.05N 97.17W PORT-MANSFIELD-TX 26.59N 97.29W $$ TXC261-489-GMZ130-150-155-170-175-201500- /E.CAN.KNHC.HU.A.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 400 AM CDT WED JUL 20 2005 PORT-MANSFIELD-TX 26.59N 97.29W BAFFIN-BAY-TX 27.29N 97.38W $$ TXC261-GMZ155-175-201500- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 400 AM CDT WED JUL 20 2005 PORT-MANSFIELD-TX 26.59N 97.29W BAFFIN-BAY-TX 27.29N 97.38W $$ ATTN...WFO...BRO... ** WTNT45 KNHC 200841 *** TCDAT5 HURRICANE EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER 39 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT WED JUL 20 2005 REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT AND WSR-88D DATA FROM BROWNSVILLE SHOW THAT EMILY HAS A CLASSIC CONCENTRIC EYEWALL STRUCTURE THIS MORNING...WITH DIAMETERS OF 16 AND 50 N MI. THE HIGHEST WINDS ARE CURRENTLY OCCURRING IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE OUTER EYEWALL...WITH THE AIRCRAFT RECENTLY REPORTING 107 KT 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS IN THAT AREA. THE DEEPENING TREND OBSERVED EARLIER HAS ENDED...WITH THE AIRCRAFT-MEASURED CENTRAL PRESSURES HOVERING IN THE 943-945 MB RANGE SINCE 02Z. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 110 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION IS A WOBBLY 285/7. A BUILDING LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER TEXAS SHOULD TURN EMILY TO A WESTERLY TRACK IN THE NEXT 12 HR OR SO...AND THIS MOTION PERSIST UNTIL EMILY DISSIPATES OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK. EMILY IS JUST ABOUT OUT OF TIME TO STRENGTHEN...AND THE PRESENCE OF CONCENTRIC EYEWALLS SUGGESTS THAT LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS LIKELY PRIOR TO LANDFALL. THAT BEING SAID...THERE IS STILL A CHANCE THAT EMILY COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE IF FRICTIONAL CONVERGENCE CAUSES THE OUTER EYEWALL TO TIGHTEN UP AS THE HURRICANE CROSSES THE COAST. WEAKENING WILL OCCUR AFTER LANDFALL...AND EMILY SHOULD DISSIPATE OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN MEXICO IN ABOUT 36 HR. THE 12 FT SEAS RADII WERE EXPANDED BASED ON BUOY DATA... AND THE WIND RADII WERE EXPANDED SLIGHTLY MORE BASED ON RECENT AIRCRAFT FLIGHT LEVEL DATA. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 20/0900Z 24.7N 97.2W 110 KT 12HR VT 20/1800Z 24.8N 98.6W 75 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 21/0600Z 24.8N 100.7W 25 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING 36HR VT 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ ** WTPZ45 KNHC 200841 *** TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM EUGENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT WED JUL 20 2005 EARLIER MICROWAVE OVERPASSES DEPICTED THAT EUGENE HAS BECOME AN EXPOSED CIRCULATION...WITH REMAINING WEAK CONVECTION CONFINED WELL TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER. THE POORLY DEFINED CENTER HAS ALSO BECOME VERY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE IN INFRARED IMAGERY. DRIER AND MORE STABLE CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MARINE LAYER AND COOLER WATERS SHOULD WEAKEN EUGENE TO A REMNANT SWIRL OF CLOUDS DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...OR LESS. DVORAK DATA T NUMBERS RANGE FROM 2.0 (30 KT) TO 2.5 (35 KT). THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT A MODEST 40 KT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR CONTINUED WEAKENING WITH DISSIPATION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. BECAUSE OF THE RELATIVELY RAPID WEAKENING TREND EUGENE IS EXPERIENCING...ADVISORIES MAY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY. BASED OFF OF THE PREVIOUS MICROWAVE FIXES AND CONTINUITY...THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 305/10. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY....WITH A GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITHIN THE LOW/MID STEERING FLOW OF THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH. FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 20/0900Z 21.1N 111.0W 40 KT 12HR VT 20/1800Z 21.8N 112.3W 30 KT 24HR VT 21/0600Z 22.5N 114.4W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 36HR VT 21/1800Z 23.0N 116.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 22/0600Z 23.2N 118.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 23/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ ** WTPN31 PGTW 200900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 06W WARNING NR 002 UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 200600Z --- NEAR 24.7N 163.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 24.7N 163.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z --- 26.1N 162.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 126 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 082 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 081 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z --- 27.4N 160.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 132 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z --- 28.7N 159.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 031 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 026 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 031 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 121 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z --- 30.2N 157.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 131 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 33.5N 155.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 132 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 09 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 36.9N 155.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 41.1N 158.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 200900Z POSITION NEAR 25.0N 163.1E. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200600Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 201500Z, 202100Z, 210300Z AND 210900Z.// ** WTUS84 KBRO 200859 AAA *** HLSBRO TXZ248>257-201200- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT...UPDATED TO EXTEND TORNADO WATCH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX 400 AM CDT WED JUL 20 2005 ...EYE OF MAJOR HURRICANE EMILY NEARING THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO... ...A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER TEXAS COAST FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO BROWNSVILLE... ...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE TEXAS GULF COAST FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD... ...INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR BROOKS...HIDALGO AND STARR COUNTIES IN DEEP SOUTH TEXAS... ...A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING... ...A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH 1 PM TODAY... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE LOWER TEXAS COASTLINE WHICH INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES: ZAPATA...STARR...JIM HOGG...BROOKS...HIDALGO... CAMERON...WILLACY AND KENEDY. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... AT 4 AM CDT...A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 10 AM FOR ALL OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 1 PM CDT FOR ALL OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. RECREATIONAL VEHICLES WERE ORDERED TO EVACUATE FROM CAMERON COUNTY BEACH AREAS YESTERDAY...BUT NO OTHER EVACUATIONS HAVE BEEN DECLARED FOR CAMERON...WILLACY...AND KENEDY COUNTIES. THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF SOUTH PADRE ISLAND...PORT ISABEL...AND PORT MANSFIELD. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 4 AM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 97.2 WEST OR ABOUT 80 MILES... SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF MATAMOROS MEXICO AND ABOUT 85 MILES... SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 943 MILLIBARS. EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED TODAY. GIVEN THIS TRACK...EMILY IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR SAN FERNANDO DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE ADVICE OF LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AND OTHER GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... TIDES ARE PREDICTED TO RUN 1.7 FEET ABOVE MEAN LOWER LOW WATER AT 616 AM CDT THIS MORNING. GIVEN THE CURRENT TRACK OF EMILY...STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO BE 7 TO 10 FEET ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. THE COMBINATION OF HIGH TIDE...STORM SURGE...AND VERY ROUGH SURF WILL PRODUCE COASTAL FLOODING ALONG SOUTH AND EAST FACING SHORES OF SOUTH PADRE ISLAND TODAY. WATER WILL PILE UP IN THE BAY OF LAGUNA MADRE AND FLOOD ADJACENT INLETS AND LOCAL COASTAL ROADS. ...WIND IMPACTS... AT 4 AM CDT...MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WITH HURRICANE EMILY ARE NEAR 125 MPH. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE AND EMILY COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL. SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL AREAS WITH WIND GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF PORT MANSFIELD EARLY THIS MORNING. ...OTHER IMPACTS... THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS HIGH AS EMILY CONTINUES TO CHURN THE WEST GULF WATERS. SEAS OF 20 TO 30 FEET ARE EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS WITH EXTREMELY ROUGH SURF ALONG THE BEACHES OF SOUTH PADRE ISLAND. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS WITH HURRICANE EMILY. ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 7 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. ALL RESIDENTS SHOULD BE AWARE OF THE DANGER POSED BY FLOODING RAINS. NEVER DRIVE INTO WATER OF UNKNOWN DEPTH. REMEMBER...TURN AROUND DON'T DROWN. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 7 AM CDT. $$ ** WTPN31 PHNC 201000 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 05E (EUGENE) WARNING NR 008 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 200600Z --- NEAR 20.8N 110.5W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 20.8N 110.5W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z --- 21.8N 112.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z --- 22.5N 114.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z --- 23.0N 116.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z --- 23.2N 118.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200600Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 201600Z, 202200Z, 210400Z AND 211000Z.// ** WTPN31 PHNC 201000 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 05E (EUGENE) WARNING NR 008 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 200600Z --- NEAR 20.8N 110.5W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 20.8N 110.5W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z --- 21.8N 112.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z --- 22.5N 114.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z --- 23.0N 116.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z --- 23.2N 118.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200600Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 201600Z, 202200Z, 210400Z AND 211000Z.// ** WTPQ20 BABJ 200900 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS HAITANG 0505 (0505) INITIAL TIME 200900 UTC 00HR 28.1N 117.2E 996HPA 18M/S 30KTS 300KM P12HR NW 10KM/H P+24HR 31.2N 113.9E 1000HPA 12M/S= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 200900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TD ANALYSIS PSTN 200900UTC 25.0N 163.0E FAIR MOVE NW 08KT PRES 1004HPA MXWD 030KT FORECAST 24HF 210900UTC 28.0N 160.6E 150NM 70% MOVE NW 09KT PRES 998HPA MXWD 035KT = ** WTNT55 KNHC 200956 *** TCEAT5 HURRICANE EMILY TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATE NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM CDT WED JUL 20 2005 AT 5 AM CDT... 1000Z... THE CENTER OF MAJOR HURRICANE EMILY WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.8 NORTH... LONGITUDE 97.4 WEST OR ABOUT 50 MILES... 80 KM EAST OF SAN FERNANDO MEXICO AND 75 MILES... 120 KM... SOUTH OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT35 KNHC 201057 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN HURRICANE EMILY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 39A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 6 AM CDT WED JUL 20 2005 ...EMILY MAKING LANDFALL IN NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER TEXAS COAST FROM PORT MANSFIELD SOUTHWARD TO THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEASTERN MEXICO FROM SOUTH OF THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER TO LA CRUZ AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF LA CRUZ TO CABO ROJO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY TEXAS. A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 6 AM CDT...1100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 97.6 WEST. THIS POSITION IS ON THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF MEXICO ABOUT 35 MILES... 55 KM...EAST OF SAN FERNANDO MEXICO. THIS IS ALSO ABOUT 75 MILES... 120 KM... SOUTH OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...16 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED TODAY. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF EMILY FARTHER INLAND ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MEXICO TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 125 MPH...205 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS MAKES EMILY A DANGEROUS CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. EMILY WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS THE CENTER MOVES INLAND. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES...260 KM. SAN FERNANDO RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 53 MPH...WHILE BROWNSVILLE RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 49 MPH. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 944 MB...27.88 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 7 TO 11 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...WITH HIGHER LEVELS IN BAYS...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS LIKELY OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO WHERE 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE LIKELY WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 15 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS AND THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER FAR SOUTH TEXAS TONIGHT...AND OVER SOUTHERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY. REPEATING THE 6 AM CDT POSITION...24.8 N... 97.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 944 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 10 AM CDT. FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT65 KNHC 201140 *** TCUAT5 HURRICANE EMILY TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 640 AM CDT TUE JUL 20 2005 ...EMILY MOVES INLAND ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF MEXICO... DATA FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVCE WSR-88D DOPPLER RADAR IN BROWNSVILLE TEXAS INDICATED THAT THE CENTER OF THE EYE OF MAJOR HURRICANE EMILY MADE LANDFALL AT APPROXIMATELY 635 AM CDT THIS MORNING ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF MEXICO ABOUT 3 MILES SOUTH OF BOCA MADRE. THIS IS ALSO ABOUT 35 MILES ...55 KM...EAST OF SAN FERNANDO MEXICO...AND ABOUT 75 MILES...120 KM... SOUTH OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT55 KNHC 201148 *** TCEAT5 HURRICANE EMILY TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATE NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 7 AM CDT WED JUL 20 2005 AT 7 AM CDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF MAJOR HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED INLAND OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO NEAR LATITUDE 24.8 NORTH... LONGITUDE 97.6 WEST OR ABOUT 35 MILES... 55 KM EAST OF SAN FERNANDO MEXICO AND ABOUT 75 MILES...120 KM...SOUTH OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTUS84 KBRO 201159 AAA *** HLSBRO TXZ248>257-201500- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT...UPDATED TO EXTEND TORNADO WATCH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX 700 AM CDT WED JUL 20 2005 ...EYE OF MAJOR HURRICANE EMILY MOVING ONSHORE OVER NORTHEAST MEXICO... ...A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER TEXAS COAST FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO BROWNSVILLE... ...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE TEXAS GULF COAST FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD... ...INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR BROOKS...HIDALGO AND STARR COUNTIES IN DEEP SOUTH TEXAS... ...A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING... ...A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH 1 PM TODAY... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE LOWER TEXAS COASTLINE WHICH INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES: ZAPATA...STARR...JIM HOGG...BROOKS...HIDALGO... CAMERON...WILLACY AND KENEDY. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... AT 7 AM CDT...A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 10 AM FOR ALL OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 1 PM CDT FOR ALL OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. RECREATIONAL VEHICLES WERE ORDERED TO EVACUATE FROM CAMERON COUNTY BEACH AREAS YESTERDAY...BUT NO OTHER EVACUATIONS HAVE BEEN DECLARED FOR CAMERON...WILLACY...AND KENEDY COUNTIES. THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF SOUTH PADRE ISLAND...PORT ISABEL...AND PORT MANSFIELD. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 6 AM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 97.6 WEST OR ABOUT 70 MILES... SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF MATAMOROS MEXICO AND ABOUT 75 MILES... SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 944 MILLIBARS. EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED TODAY. EMILY WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS INLAND DURING THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE ADVICE OF LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AND OTHER GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... TIDES WERE PREDICTED TO RUN 1.7 FEET ABOVE MEAN LOWER LOW WATER AT 616 AM CDT. GIVEN THE CURRENT TRACK OF EMILY...STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO BE 7 TO 10 FEET ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. THE COMBINATION OF HIGH TIDE...STORM SURGE...AND VERY ROUGH SURF WILL PRODUCE COASTAL FLOODING ALONG SOUTH AND EAST FACING SHORES OF SOUTH PADRE ISLAND TODAY. WATER WILL PILE UP IN THE BAY OF LAGUNA MADRE AND FLOOD ADJACENT INLETS AND LOCAL COASTAL ROADS. ...WIND IMPACTS... AT 7 AM CDT...MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WITH HURRICANE EMILY ARE NEAR 125 MPH. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE AND EMILY COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL. SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL AREAS WITH WIND GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF PORT MANSFIELD EARLY THIS MORNING. ...OTHER IMPACTS... THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS HIGH AS EMILY CONTINUES TO CHURN THE WEST GULF WATERS. SEAS OF 20 TO 30 FEET ARE EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS WITH EXTREMELY ROUGH SURF ALONG THE BEACHES OF SOUTH PADRE ISLAND. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS WITH HURRICANE EMILY. ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 7 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. ALL RESIDENTS SHOULD BE AWARE OF THE DANGER POSED BY FLOODING RAINS. NEVER DRIVE INTO WATER OF UNKNOWN DEPTH. REMEMBER...TURN AROUND DON'T DROWN. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 10 AM CDT. $$ AP ** WTPN31 PGTW 200900 COR *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 06W WARNING NR 002A CORRECTED UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 200600Z --- NEAR 24.7N 163.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 24.7N 163.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z --- 26.1N 162.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z --- 27.4N 160.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z --- 28.7N 159.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z --- 30.2N 157.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 33.5N 155.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 09 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 36.9N 155.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 41.1N 158.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 200900Z POSITION NEAR 25.0N 163.1E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 06W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 375 NM NORTH- NORTHWEST OF WAKE ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200600Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 201500Z, 202100Z, 210300Z AND 210900Z. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: ADDED REMARKS SECTION.//