** WTNT55 KNHC 200000 *** TCEAT5 HURRICANE EMILY TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATE NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 7 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2005 AT 7 PM CDT... 0000Z... THE CENTER OF MAJOR HURRICANE EMILY WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE 96.1 WEST OR ABOUT 100 MILES... 160 KM EAST OF BAHIA ALGODONES MEXICO AND 130 MILES... 215 KM... SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTSR20 WSSS 191800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTJP21 RJTD 200000 *** WARNING 200000. WARNING VALID 210000. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. GALE WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0505 HAITANG (0505) 992 HPA AT 27.4N 118.0E CENTRAL CHINA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 12 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 110 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 210000UTC AT 29.3N 114.8E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 998 HPA. BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 200000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0505 HAITANG (0505) ANALYSIS PSTN 200000UTC 27.4N 118.0E FAIR MOVE WNW 12KT PRES 992HPA MXWD 040KT 30KT 300NM SOUTHEAST 110NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 210000UTC 29.3N 114.8E 80NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTNT35 KNHC 200055 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN HURRICANE EMILY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 37A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2005 ...OUTER RAINBANDS OF MAJOR HURRICANE EMILY SPREADING OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND SOUTHERN TEXAS... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER TEXAS COAST FROM PORT MANSFIELD SOUTHWARD TO THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEASTERN MEXICO FROM SOUTH OF THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER TO LA CRUZ AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF LA CRUZ TO CABO ROJO. A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY TEXAS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 8 PM CDT...0100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE 96.1 WEST OR ABOUT 105 MILES... 168 KM... EAST OF BAHIA ALGODONES MEXICO AND ABOUT 135 MILES... 215 KM...SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. EMILY HAS TEMPORARILY STALLED BUT IS SOON EXPECTED TO RESUME A MOTION TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH ...15 KM/HR. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF EMILY NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF MEXICO BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 125 MPH...205 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EMILY IS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE... AND EMILY COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES... 95 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES...260 KM. OUTER RAINBANDS BRINGING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE COASTS OF FAR SOUTH TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO TONIGHT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 948 MB...27.99 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 7 TO 11 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...WITH HIGHER LEVELS IN BAYS...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS AND THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY...WITH ISOLATED 10 TO 12 INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. HEAVIER RAINFALL IS LIKELY OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO WHERE 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE LIKELY...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER FAR SOUTH TEXAS TONIGHT...AND OVER SOUTHERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY. REPEATING THE 6 PM CDT POSITION...24.4 N... 96.1 W. MOVEMENT...NEARLY STATIONARY BUT EXPECTED TO RESUME A MOTION TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 948 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 10 PM CDT. FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTPQ30 RJTD 200000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO.19 FOR TS 0505 HAITANG (0505) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 200000 UTC IS FAIR. TS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TS WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TS WILL BE GRADED DOWN TO TD WITHIN 24 HOURS. TS WILL WEAKEN BECAUSE CYCLONE HAS ALREADY LANDED AND WILL CONTINUO USLY STAY ON LAND FI-NUMBER WILL BE 2.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 200000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS HAITANG 0505 (0505) INITIAL TIME 200000 UTC 00HR 27.1N 118.0E 990HPA 18M/S 30KTS 300KM P12HR NW 15KM/H P+24HR 30.8N 115.1E 998HPA 15M/S= ** WTUS84 KBRO 200108 AAA *** HLSBRO TXZ248>257-200330- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT...UPDATED TO INCLUDE FLOOD WATCH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX 808 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2005 ...OUTER RAINBANDS OF MAJOR HURRICANE EMILY SPREADING OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND SOUTHERN TEXAS... ...A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER TEXAS COAST FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO BROWNSVILLE... ...A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE TEXAS GULF COAST FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD... ...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE TEXAS GULF COAST FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD... ...INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ZAPATA... BROOKS...JIM HOGG...HIDALGO AND STARR COUNTIES IN DEEP SOUTH TEXAS... ...A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH 1 AM CDT WEDNESDAY MORNING... ...A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH 1 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE LOWER TEXAS COASTLINE WHICH INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES: ZAPATA...STARR...JIM HOGG...BROOKS...HIDALGO... CAMERON...WILLACY AND KENEDY. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... AT 8 PM CDT...EMERGENCY OFFICIALS DETERMINED RECREATIONAL VEHICLES SHOULD HAVE COMPLETED EVACUATION FROM CAMERON COUNTY BEACH AREAS. NO OTHER EVACUATION RECOMMENDATIONS HAVE BEEN MADE FOR CAMERON...WILLACY...AND KENEDY COUNTIES. THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF SOUTH PADRE ISLAND...PORT ISABEL...AND PORT MANSFIELD. COUNTY AND CITY OFFICIALS WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY. A TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS BY THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES ASSOCIATED WITH RAINBANDS MOVING INLAND THIS EVENING. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT TONIGHT FOR ALL DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 8 PM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.1 WEST OR ABOUT 105 MILES... EAST OF BAHIA ALGODONES MEXICO AND ABOUT 135 MILES...SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 956 MILLIBARS. EMILY HAS TEMPORARILY STALLED BUT IS SOON EXPECTED TO RESUME A MOTION TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. GIVEN THIS TRACK...EMILY IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AROUND 3 AM CDT WEDNESDAY MORNING APPROXIMATELY 85 MILES SOUTH OF BROWNSVILLE...OR ABOUT 60 MILES NORTH OF LA PESCA MEXICO. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... THE TEXAS DEPARTMENT OF PUBLIC SAFETY HAS CLOSED EASTBOUND TRAFFIC OVER QUEEN ISABELLA MEMORIAL CAUSEWAY. RESIDENTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE ADVICE OF LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AND OTHER GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... TIDES ARE PREDICTED TO RUN 1.7 FEET ABOVE MEAN LOWER LOW WATER AT 616 AM CDT WEDNESDAY MORNING. GIVEN THE CURRENT TRACK OF EMILY...STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO BE 7 TO 10 FEET ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. THE COMBINATION OF HIGH TIDE...STORM SURGE...AND VERY ROUGH SURF ON WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL PRODUCE COASTAL FLOODING ALONG SOUTH AND EAST FACING SHORES OF SOUTH PADRE ISLAND. ...WIND IMPACTS... AT 8 PM CDT...MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WITH HURRICANE EMILY ARE NEAR 125 MPH. EMILY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE STRENGTHENING OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL. THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST TONIGHT. SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL AREAS WITH WIND GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF PORT MANSFIELD THIS EVENING AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ...OTHER IMPACTS... THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS HIGH TODAY AS EMILY APPROACHES. WAVES HAVE INCREASED TO 18 FEET OFFSHORE TODAY WITH WAVES BETWEEN 20 AND 25 FEET POSSIBLE TONIGHT. WAVES WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE ON WEDNESDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS WITH HURRICANE EMILY. ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 10 TO 12 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. ALL RESIDENTS SHOULD BE AWARE OF THE DANGER POSED BY FLOODING RAINS. NEVER DRIVE INTO WATER OF UNKNOWN DEPTH. REMEMBER...TURN AROUND DON'T DROWN. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 10 PM CDT. $$ ** WTKO20 RKSL 200000 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 9 NAME TS 0505 HAITANG ANALYSIS POSITION 200000UTC 27.3N 118.0E MOVEMENT WNW 12KT PRES/VMAX 992HPA 41KT FORECAST 12HR POSITION 201200UTC 28.2N 116.2E WITHIN 45NM PRES/VMAX 996HPA 33KT 24HR POSITION 210000UTC 29.2N 114.6E WITHIN 80NM PRES 998HPA KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPQ21 RJTD 200000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TD ANALYSIS PSTN 200000UTC 24.2N 164.0E FAIR MOVE WNW 08KT PRES 1004HPA MXWD 030KT FORECAST 24HF 210000UTC 25.7N 162.3E 150NM 70% MOVE NW SLOWLY PRES 1000HPA MXWD 035KT = ** WTCA45 TJSJ 200133 *** TCPSP5 BOLETIN HURACAN EMILY ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 37 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 8 PM CDT MARTES 19 DE JULIO DE 2005 ...BANDAS EXTERNAS DEL INTENSO HURACAN EMILY ESPARCIENDOSE SOBRE EL NORESTE DE MEXICO Y SUR DE TEXAS... UN AVISO DE HURACAN ESTA EN EFECTO PARA LA COSTA BAJA DE TEXAS DESDE PORT MANSFIELD HACIA EL SUR HASTA LA FRONTERA DE TEXAS Y MEXICO. UN AVISO DE HURACAN ESTA EN EFECTO PARA EL NORESTE DE MEXICO DESDE EL SUR DE LA FRONTERA DE TEXAS Y MEXICO HASTA LA CRUZ Y UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA EN EFECTO DESDE EL SUR DE LA CRUZ HASTA CABO ROJO. UN AVISO DE HURACAN O DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE HURACAN O TORMENTA TROPICAL...RESPECTIVAMENTE...SE ESPERAN DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS PREPARATIVOS PARA PROTEGER VIDA Y PROPIEDAD DEBEN DE SER COMPLETADOS. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL Y UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN CONTINUAN EN EFECTO DESDE EL NORTE DE PORT MANSFIELD HASTA LA BAHIA BAFFIN TEXAS. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE HURACAN SON POSIBLES DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA EN SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE TIERRA...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA DE METEOROLOGIA LOCAL. A LAS 8 PM CDT...0100Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN EMILY ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 24.4 NORTE...LONGITUD 96.1 OESTE O COMO A 105 MILLAS... 168 KM... AL ESTE DE LA BAHIA ALGODONES Y COMO A 135 MILLAS... 215 KM...AL SURESTE DE BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. EMILY SE ESTA ESTACIONADO TEMPORALMENTE PERO SE ESPRA UN MOVIMIENTO HACIA OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 10 MPH... 15 KM/HR. ESTE MOVIMIENTO DEBE DE TRAER EL CENTRO DE EMILY CERCA DE LA COSTA NORESTE DE MEXICO PARA EL MIERCOLES EN LA MANANA. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 125 MPH...205 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. AHORA EMILY ES UN PELIGROSO HURACAN DE CATEGORIA TRES EN LA ESCALA DE HURACANES SAFFIR-SIMPSON. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO ADICIONAL...Y EMILY PUEDE CONVERTIRSE EN UN HURACAN CATEGORIA CUATRO ANTES DE TOCAR TIERRA. LOS VIENTOS DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 60 MILLAS... 95 KM...DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 160 MILLAS...260 KM. BANDAS EXTERNAS PRODUCIENDO LLUVIA MUY FUERTE Y VIENTOS EN RAFAGAS CONTINUARAN ESPARCIENDOSE A TRAVES DE LA COSTA LEJOS AL SUR DE TEXAS Y EL NORESTE DE MEXICO HOY. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL ESTIMADA ES DE 948 MB...27.99 PULGADAS. SE PUEDEN ESPERAR INUNDACIONES COSTERAS POR MAREJADAS CICLONICAS DE 7 A 11 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA...CON NIVELES MAYORES EN LAS BAHIAS...ACOMPANADAS POR GRANDES Y PELIGROSAS OLAS ROMPIENTES...CERCA Y AL NORTE DE DONDE EL CENTRO ENTRE A TIERRA. SON POSIBLES ACUMULACIONES DE LLUVIA DE 4 A 8 PULGADAS SOBRE LA PARTE BAJA DEL VALLE DE RIO GRANDE AL SUR DE TEXAS Y EN EL NORESTE DE MEXICO...CON POSIBLES CANTIDADES MAXIMAS AISLADAS DE 10 A 12 PULGADAS. LLUVIA FUERTE ES POSIBLE SOBRE EL NORESTE DE MEXICO SONDE 5 A 10 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES...CON CANTIDADES POSIBLES DE LLUVIA DE 15 PULGADAS. SON POSIBLES TORNADOS AISLADOS BIEN AL SUR DE TEXAS ESTA NOCHE...Y SOBRE EL SUR Y SUR CENTRAL DE TEXAS EL MIERCOLES. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 6 PM CDT...24.4 NORTE... 96.1 OESTE. CASI ESTACIONARIO PERO SE ESPERA QUE VUELVA A MOVERSE AL...OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 10 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 125 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA... 948 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NAXIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 10 PM CDT. PRONOSTICADOR KNABB $$ ** WTCA45 TJSJ 200134 *** TCPSP5 BOLETIN HURACAN EMILY ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 37A NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 8 PM CDT MARTES 19 DE JULIO DE 2005 ...BANDAS EXTERNAS DEL INTENSO HURACAN EMILY ESPARCIENDOSE SOBRE EL NORESTE DE MEXICO Y SUR DE TEXAS... UN AVISO DE HURACAN ESTA EN EFECTO PARA LA COSTA BAJA DE TEXAS DESDE PORT MANSFIELD HACIA EL SUR HASTA LA FRONTERA DE TEXAS Y MEXICO. UN AVISO DE HURACAN ESTA EN EFECTO PARA EL NORESTE DE MEXICO DESDE EL SUR DE LA FRONTERA DE TEXAS Y MEXICO HASTA LA CRUZ Y UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA EN EFECTO DESDE EL SUR DE LA CRUZ HASTA CABO ROJO. UN AVISO DE HURACAN O DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE HURACAN O TORMENTA TROPICAL...RESPECTIVAMENTE...SE ESPERAN DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS PREPARATIVOS PARA PROTEGER VIDA Y PROPIEDAD DEBEN DE SER COMPLETADOS. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL Y UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN CONTINUAN EN EFECTO DESDE EL NORTE DE PORT MANSFIELD HASTA LA BAHIA BAFFIN TEXAS. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE HURACAN SON POSIBLES DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA EN SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE TIERRA...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA DE METEOROLOGIA LOCAL. A LAS 8 PM CDT...0100Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN EMILY ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 24.4 NORTE...LONGITUD 96.1 OESTE O COMO A 105 MILLAS... 168 KM... AL ESTE DE LA BAHIA ALGODONES Y COMO A 135 MILLAS... 215 KM...AL SURESTE DE BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. EMILY SE ESTA ESTACIONADO TEMPORALMENTE PERO SE ESPRA UN MOVIMIENTO HACIA OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 10 MPH... 15 KM/HR. ESTE MOVIMIENTO DEBE DE TRAER EL CENTRO DE EMILY CERCA DE LA COSTA NORESTE DE MEXICO PARA EL MIERCOLES EN LA MANANA. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 125 MPH...205 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. AHORA EMILY ES UN PELIGROSO HURACAN DE CATEGORIA TRES EN LA ESCALA DE HURACANES SAFFIR-SIMPSON. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO ADICIONAL...Y EMILY PUEDE CONVERTIRSE EN UN HURACAN CATEGORIA CUATRO ANTES DE TOCAR TIERRA. LOS VIENTOS DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 60 MILLAS... 95 KM...DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 160 MILLAS...260 KM. BANDAS EXTERNAS PRODUCIENDO LLUVIA MUY FUERTE Y VIENTOS EN RAFAGAS CONTINUARAN ESPARCIENDOSE A TRAVES DE LA COSTA LEJOS AL SUR DE TEXAS Y EL NORESTE DE MEXICO HOY. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL ESTIMADA ES DE 948 MB...27.99 PULGADAS. SE PUEDEN ESPERAR INUNDACIONES COSTERAS POR MAREJADAS CICLONICAS DE 7 A 11 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA...CON NIVELES MAYORES EN LAS BAHIAS...ACOMPANADAS POR GRANDES Y PELIGROSAS OLAS ROMPIENTES...CERCA Y AL NORTE DE DONDE EL CENTRO ENTRE A TIERRA. SON POSIBLES ACUMULACIONES DE LLUVIA DE 4 A 8 PULGADAS SOBRE LA PARTE BAJA DEL VALLE DE RIO GRANDE AL SUR DE TEXAS Y EN EL NORESTE DE MEXICO...CON POSIBLES CANTIDADES MAXIMAS AISLADAS DE 10 A 12 PULGADAS. LLUVIA FUERTE ES POSIBLE SOBRE EL NORESTE DE MEXICO SONDE 5 A 10 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES...CON CANTIDADES POSIBLES DE LLUVIA DE 15 PULGADAS. SON POSIBLES TORNADOS AISLADOS BIEN AL SUR DE TEXAS ESTA NOCHE...Y SOBRE EL SUR Y SUR CENTRAL DE TEXAS EL MIERCOLES. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 6 PM CDT...24.4 NORTE... 96.1 OESTE. CASI ESTACIONARIO PERO SE ESPERA QUE VUELVA A MOVERSE AL...OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 10 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 125 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA... 948 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NAXIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 10 PM CDT. PRONOSTICADOR KNABB $$ ** WTNT35 KNHC 200137 CCA *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN HURRICANE EMILY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 37A...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2005 CORRECTED TIME IN REPEAT SECTION ...OUTER RAINBANDS OF MAJOR HURRICANE EMILY SPREADING OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND SOUTHERN TEXAS... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER TEXAS COAST FROM PORT MANSFIELD SOUTHWARD TO THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEASTERN MEXICO FROM SOUTH OF THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER TO LA CRUZ AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF LA CRUZ TO CABO ROJO. A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY TEXAS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 8 PM CDT...0100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE 96.1 WEST OR ABOUT 105 MILES... 168 KM... EAST OF BAHIA ALGODONES MEXICO AND ABOUT 135 MILES... 215 KM...SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. EMILY HAS TEMPORARILY STALLED BUT IS SOON EXPECTED TO RESUME A MOTION TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH ...15 KM/HR. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF EMILY NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF MEXICO BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 125 MPH...205 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EMILY IS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE... AND EMILY COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES... 95 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES...260 KM. OUTER RAINBANDS BRINGING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE COASTS OF FAR SOUTH TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO TONIGHT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 948 MB...27.99 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 7 TO 11 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...WITH HIGHER LEVELS IN BAYS...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS AND THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY...WITH ISOLATED 10 TO 12 INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. HEAVIER RAINFALL IS LIKELY OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO WHERE 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE LIKELY...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER FAR SOUTH TEXAS TONIGHT...AND OVER SOUTHERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY. REPEATING THE 8 PM CDT POSITION...24.4 N... 96.1 W. MOVEMENT...NEARLY STATIONARY BUT EXPECTED TO RESUME A MOTION TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 948 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 10 PM CDT. FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTPQ31 RJTD 200000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 1 FOR TD LOCATED AT 24.2N 164.0E 1.GENERAL COMMENTS POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 200000 UTC IS FAIR. TD WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TD WILL MOVE NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TD WILL BE GRADED UP TO TS WITHIN 24 HOURS. TD WILL DEVELOP BECAUSE CYCLONE WILL STAY IN HIGH SST AREA. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 2.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTNT55 KNHC 200156 *** TCEAT5 HURRICANE EMILY TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATE NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 9 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2005 AT 9 PM CDT... 0200Z... THE CENTER OF MAJOR HURRICANE EMILY WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.5 NORTH... LONGITUDE 96.2 WEST OR ABOUT 90 MILES... 145 KM EAST OF BAHIA ALGODONES MEXICO AND 125 MILES... 200 KM... SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTSS20 VHHH 200145 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 200000 UTC, TROPICAL STORM HAITANG (0505) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO SEVEN POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (27.2 N) ONE ONE EIGHT POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (118.0 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 40 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 210 NAUTICAL MILES OVER EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 120 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 300 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 210000 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTSS20 VHHH 200145 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 200000 UTC, TROPICAL STORM HAITANG (0505) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO SEVEN POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (27.2 N) ONE ONE EIGHT POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (118.0 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 40 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 210 NAUTICAL MILES OVER EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 120 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 300 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 210000 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTNT35 KNHC 200248 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN HURRICANE EMILY ADVISORY NUMBER 38 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2005 ...MAJOR HURRICANE EMILY SLOWLY APPROACHING THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER TEXAS COAST FROM PORT MANSFIELD SOUTHWARD TO THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEASTERN MEXICO FROM SOUTH OF THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER TO LA CRUZ AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF LA CRUZ TO CABO ROJO. A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY TEXAS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.5 NORTH... LONGITUDE 96.4 WEST OR ABOUT 115 MILES... 180 KM... SOUTHEAST OF MATAMOROS MEXICO AND ABOUT 120 MILES... 190 KM...SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH ...11 KM/HR. A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION NEAR 10 MPH IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN DURING THE NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ON THIS TRACK... THE CENTER OF EMILY WILL BE NEAR THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO WEDNESDAY MORNING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 125 MPH...205 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EMILY IS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE... AND EMILY COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES...260 KM. OUTER RAINBANDS BRINGING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE COASTS OF FAR SOUTH TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 944 MB...27.88 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 7 TO 11 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...WITH HIGHER LEVELS IN BAYS...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS LIKELY OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO WHERE 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE LIKELY WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 15 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS AND THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER FAR SOUTH TEXAS TONIGHT...AND OVER SOUTHERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY. REPEATING THE 10 PM CDT POSITION...24.5 N... 96.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 944 MB. INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT MIDNIGHT CDT AND 2 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 4 AM CDT. FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT25 KNHC 200249 *** TCMAT5 HURRICANE EMILY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 38 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052005 0300Z WED JUL 20 2005 A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER TEXAS COAST FROM PORT MANSFIELD SOUTHWARD TO THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEASTERN MEXICO FROM SOUTH OF THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER TO LA CRUZ AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF LA CRUZ TO CABO ROJO. A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY TEXAS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 96.4W AT 20/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 944 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT. 64 KT....... 60NE 35SE 25SW 50NW. 50 KT.......100NE 60SE 40SW 75NW. 34 KT.......140NE 110SE 90SW 110NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 100SE 120SW 200NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 96.4W AT 20/0300Z AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 96.1W FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 24.7N 97.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 35SE 15SW 50NW. 50 KT...100NE 60SE 30SW 75NW. 34 KT...140NE 110SE 75SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 24.7N 100.2W...DISSIPATING INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.5N 96.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0900Z FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT75 KNHC 200250 *** SPFAT5 HURRICANE EMILY PROBABILITIES NUMBER 38 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.4 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 7PM CDT FRI JUL 22 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 24.7N 100.2W 39 X X X 39 CORPUSCHRISTI TX 2 X X X 2 99 X X X 99 BROWNSVILLE TX 54 X X X 54 99 X X X 99 GULF 27N 96W 3 X X X 3 MMSO 238N 982W 42 X X X 42 GULF 25N 96W 99 X X X 99 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 7PM WED FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 7PM WED TO 7AM THU C FROM 7AM THU TO 7PM THU D FROM 7PM THU TO 7PM FRI E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 7PM FRI X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT25 KNHC 200249 *** TCMAT5 HURRICANE EMILY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 38 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052005 0300Z WED JUL 20 2005 A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER TEXAS COAST FROM PORT MANSFIELD SOUTHWARD TO THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEASTERN MEXICO FROM SOUTH OF THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER TO LA CRUZ AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF LA CRUZ TO CABO ROJO. A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY TEXAS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 96.4W AT 20/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 944 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT. 64 KT....... 60NE 35SE 25SW 50NW. 50 KT.......100NE 60SE 40SW 75NW. 34 KT.......140NE 110SE 90SW 110NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 100SE 120SW 200NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 96.4W AT 20/0300Z AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 96.1W FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 24.7N 97.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 35SE 15SW 50NW. 50 KT...100NE 60SE 30SW 75NW. 34 KT...140NE 110SE 75SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 24.7N 100.2W...DISSIPATING INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.5N 96.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0900Z FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTPN31 PGTW 200300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/192221Z JUL 05// AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 200000Z --- NEAR 24.1N 163.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 24.1N 163.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 201200Z --- 25.4N 162.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 210000Z --- 26.8N 161.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 211200Z --- 28.0N 160.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 220000Z --- 29.8N 159.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 230000Z --- 33.2N 157.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 200300Z POSITION NEAR 24.4N 163.5E. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 06W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 325 NM NORTH- NORTHWEST OF WAKE ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 192221Z JUL 05 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT ** WTPZ35 KNHC 200253 *** TCPEP5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM EUGENE ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT TUE JUL 19 2005 ...EUGENE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND MOVE AWAY FROM BAJA... AT 8 PM PDT...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE ENTIRE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 8 PM PDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EUGENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE 111.1 WEST OR ABOUT 190 MILES... 305 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO. EUGENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH ...22 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH... 95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. CONTINUED WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES ...165 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES. REPEATING THE 8 PM PDT POSITION...20.4 N...111.1 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 994 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 AM PDT. FORECASTER ROBERTS/KNABB $$ ** WTPZ45 KNHC 200255 *** TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM EUGENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT TUE JUL 19 2005 EUGENE HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. EARLIER BANDING FEATURES OVER THE EAST AND SOUTH QUADRANTS HAVE VIRTUALLY DISSIPATED. COOLER CLOUD TOPS ARE NOW CONFINED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED CENTER. APPARENTLY...THERMODYNAMIC EFFECTS...DRIER AND MORE STABLE CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MARINE LAYER... AND COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES... HAVE HAD A DRAMATIC IMPACT ON EUGENE. DVORAK DATA T NUMBERS RANGE FROM 2.5 (35 KT) TO 3.5 (55 KT). THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 50 KT...WHICH MAY BE GENEROUS AT THIS POINT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND IS BLEND OF THE GFDL AND SHIPS TRENDS...CALLING FOR A REMNANT LOW SWIRL OF CLOUDS BY DAY 3 AND DISSIPATION BY DAY 4. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/12. THE LATEST GFS RUN SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THE GFS IS THE ONLY GLOBAL MODEL INDICATING A WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING... WHILE ALL OTHER MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A MORE NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS...FOLLOWING THE GFS AND THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST...THEN TRACKING WESTWARD WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL TRADE WIND FLOW AS A REMNANT LOW. FORECASTER ROBERTS/KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 20/0300Z 20.4N 111.1W 50 KT 12HR VT 20/1200Z 21.0N 112.8W 40 KT 24HR VT 21/0000Z 21.7N 114.8W 30 KT 36HR VT 21/1200Z 22.1N 116.6W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 48HR VT 22/0000Z 22.3N 118.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 23/0000Z 22.5N 122.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 24/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ ** WTNT45 KNHC 200300 *** TCDAT5 HURRICANE EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER 38 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2005 THE LAST TWO RECON FIXES JUST PRIOR TO 00Z INDICATED THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS STILL FALLING... ALTHOUGH MORE SLOWLY THAN IT HAD BEEN DURING THE AFTERNOON. WHILE THE AIRCRAFT CREW REPORTED THAT THE MEASUREMENT 942 MB AT 2114Z WAS SUSPECT... THERE IS CONFIDENCE IN THE 948 MB MEASURED AT 2318Z... AND A MORE RECENT FIX NEAR 02Z OF 944 MB INDICATED THE DECREASING TREND CONTINUES. THE FLIGHT LEVEL WIND OF 122 KT AT 2126Z REMAINS THE MAXIMUM OBSERVED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS... AND 00Z DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGED FROM 100 TO 115 KT... SO THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 110 KT. THE RADAR PRESENTATION OF EMILY IS IMPRESSIVE... WITH A 17 NM WIDE EYE AND A WELL-DEFINED INNER EYEWALL SURROUNDED BY A CONCENTRIC BAND AT A RADIUS OF 35 NMI. GIVEN THE PRESSURE FALLS AND WELL-ORGANIZED INTERNAL STRUCTURES... SOME ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL. EMILY TOOK A JOG TO THE SOUTH AND EVEN BRIEFLY STALLED BETWEEN 23Z AND 01Z... BUT A SLOW WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION SEEMS TO HAVE RESUMED... ESTIMATED AT 285/6. 00Z UPPER DATA INDICATES NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES. EMILY SHOULD STEADILY MOVE IN A GENERAL WESTWARD DIRECTION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... AS ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST. THIS SHOULD BRING EMILY TO THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN ABOUT 12 HOURS AND WELL INLAND OVER MOUNTAINOUS INTERIOR MEXICO BY ABOUT 24 HOURS. THE TRACK FORECAST IS ALONG THE SAME PATH AS THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY... JUST A LITTLE SLOWER DUE TO THE RECENT STALL. THE 12 FT SEAS RADII WERE EXPANDED IN THE NORTHERN QUADRANTS BASED ON BUOY DATA... AND THE WIND RADII WERE EXPANDED SLIGHTLY MORE BASED ON RECENT AIRCRAFT FLIGHT LEVEL DATA. FORECASTER KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 20/0300Z 24.5N 96.4W 110 KT 12HR VT 20/1200Z 24.7N 97.8W 120 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 21/0000Z 24.7N 100.2W 30 KT...DISSIPATING 36HR VT 21/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ ** WTCA45 TJSJ 200302 *** TCPSP5 BOLETIN HURACAN EMILY ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 37A NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 10 PM CDT MARTES 19 DE JULIO DE 2005 ...INTENSO HURACAN EMILY LENTAMENTE ACERCANDOSE A LA COSTA NORESTE DE MEXICO... UN AVISO DE HURACAN ESTA EN EFECTO PARA LA COSTA BAJA DE TEXAS DESDE PORT MANSFIELD HACIA EL SUR HASTA LA FRONTERA DE TEXAS Y MEXICO. UN AVISO DE HURACAN ESTA EN EFECTO PARA EL NORESTE DE MEXICO DESDE EL SUR DE LA FRONTERA DE TEXAS Y MEXICO HASTA LA CRUZ Y UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA EN EFECTO DESDE EL SUR DE LA CRUZ HASTA CABO ROJO. UN AVISO DE HURACAN O DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE HURACAN O TORMENTA TROPICAL...RESPECTIVAMENTE...SE ESPERAN DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS PREPARATIVOS PARA PROTEGER VIDA Y PROPIEDAD DEBEN DE SER COMPLETADOS. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL Y UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN CONTINUAN EN EFECTO DESDE EL NORTE DE PORT MANSFIELD HASTA LA BAHIA BAFFIN TEXAS. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE HURACAN SON POSIBLES DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA EN SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE TIERRA...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA DE METEOROLOGIA LOCAL. A LAS 10 PM CDT...0300Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN EMILY ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 24.5 NORTE...LONGITUD 96.4 OESTE O COMO A 115 MILLAS... 180 KM... AL SURESTE DE MATAMOROS MEXICO Y CERCA DE 120 MILLAS... 190 KM...AL SURESTE DE BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. EMILY SE ESTA MOVIENDO AL OESTE NOROESTE A 7 MPH...11KM/HR. UN MOVIMIENTO GENERAL AL OESTE A 10 MPH SE ESPERA DURANTE LA NOCHE Y CONTINUE HASTA EL MIERCOLES. EN ESTA TRAYECTORIA...EL CENTRO DE EMILY ESTARA CERCA DE LA COSTA NORESTE DE MEXICO EL MIERCOLES EN LA MANANA. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 125 MPH...205 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. AHORA EMILY ES UN PELIGROSO HURACAN DE CATEGORIA TRES EN LA ESCALA DE HURACANES SAFFIR-SIMPSON. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO ADICIONAL...Y EMILY PUEDE CONVERTIRSE EN UN HURACAN CATEGORIA CUATRO ANTES DE TOCAR TIERRA. LOS VIENTOS DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 60 MILLAS... 95 KM...DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 160 MILLAS...260 KM. BANDAS EXTERNAS PRODUCIENDO LLUVIA MUY FUERTE Y VIENTOS EN RAFAGAS CONTINUARAN ESPARCIENDOSE A TRAVES DE LA COSTA LEJOS AL SUR DE TEXAS Y EL NORESTE DE MEXICO EN LA MADRUGADA. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL REPORTADA RECIENTEMENTE POR UN AVION CAZA HURACANES ES DE 944 MB...27.88 PULGADAS. SE PUEDEN ESPERAR INUNDACIONES COSTERAS POR MAREJADAS CICLONICAS DE 7 A 11 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA...CON NIVELES MAYORES EN LAS BAHIAS...ACOMPANADAS POR GRANDES Y PELIGROSAS OLAS ROMPIENTES...CERCA Y AL NORTE DE DONDE EL CENTRO ENTRE A TIERRA. LA LLUVIA MAS FUERTE ES PROBABLE SOBRE EL NORESTE DE MEXICO DONDE 5 A 10 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE HASTA 15 PULGADAS EN LAS MONTANAS. ESTAS LLUVIAS PUEDEN CAUSAR INUNDACIONES REPENTINAS Y DERRUMBES QUE PUEDEN AMENAZAR LAS VIDAS. SON POSIBLES TORNADOS AISLADOS BIEN AL SUR DE TEXAS ESTA NOCHE...Y SOBRE EL SUR Y SUR CENTRAL DE TEXAS EL MIERCOLES. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 10 PM CDT...24.5 NORTE... 96.4 OESTE. CASI ESTACIONARIO PERO SE ESPERA QUE VUELVA A MOVERSE AL...OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 7 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 125 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA... 944 MILIBARAS. ADVERTENCIAS INTERMEDIAS SERAN EMITIDAS POR EL CENTRO NAXIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 1200 AM CDT Y 2 AM CDT SEGUIDO POR LA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA HASTA LAS 4 AM CDT. PRONOSTICADOR KNABB $$ ** WTCA45 TJSJ 200302 RRA *** TCPSP5 BOLETIN HURACAN EMILY ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 37A NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 10 PM CDT MARTES 19 DE JULIO DE 2005 ...INTENSO HURACAN EMILY LENTAMENTE ACERCANDOSE A LA COSTA NORESTE DE MEXICO... UN AVISO DE HURACAN ESTA EN EFECTO PARA LA COSTA BAJA DE TEXAS DESDE PORT MANSFIELD HACIA EL SUR HASTA LA FRONTERA DE TEXAS Y MEXICO. UN AVISO DE HURACAN ESTA EN EFECTO PARA EL NORESTE DE MEXICO DESDE EL SUR DE LA FRONTERA DE TEXAS Y MEXICO HASTA LA CRUZ Y UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA EN EFECTO DESDE EL SUR DE LA CRUZ HASTA CABO ROJO. UN AVISO DE HURACAN O DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE HURACAN O TORMENTA TROPICAL...RESPECTIVAMENTE...SE ESPERAN DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS PREPARATIVOS PARA PROTEGER VIDA Y PROPIEDAD DEBEN DE SER COMPLETADOS. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL Y UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN CONTINUAN EN EFECTO DESDE EL NORTE DE PORT MANSFIELD HASTA LA BAHIA BAFFIN TEXAS. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE HURACAN SON POSIBLES DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA EN SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE TIERRA...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA DE METEOROLOGIA LOCAL. A LAS 10 PM CDT...0300Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN EMILY ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 24.5 NORTE...LONGITUD 96.4 OESTE O COMO A 115 MILLAS... 180 KM... AL SURESTE DE MATAMOROS MEXICO Y CERCA DE 120 MILLAS... 190 KM...AL SURESTE DE BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. EMILY SE ESTA MOVIENDO AL OESTE NOROESTE A 7 MPH...11KM/HR. UN MOVIMIENTO GENERAL AL OESTE A 10 MPH SE ESPERA DURANTE LA NOCHE Y CONTINUE HASTA EL MIERCOLES. EN ESTA TRAYECTORIA...EL CENTRO DE EMILY ESTARA CERCA DE LA COSTA NORESTE DE MEXICO EL MIERCOLES EN LA MANANA. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 125 MPH...205 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. AHORA EMILY ES UN PELIGROSO HURACAN DE CATEGORIA TRES EN LA ESCALA DE HURACANES SAFFIR-SIMPSON. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO ADICIONAL...Y EMILY PUEDE CONVERTIRSE EN UN HURACAN CATEGORIA CUATRO ANTES DE TOCAR TIERRA. LOS VIENTOS DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 60 MILLAS... 95 KM...DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 160 MILLAS...260 KM. BANDAS EXTERNAS PRODUCIENDO LLUVIA MUY FUERTE Y VIENTOS EN RAFAGAS CONTINUARAN ESPARCIENDOSE A TRAVES DE LA COSTA LEJOS AL SUR DE TEXAS Y EL NORESTE DE MEXICO EN LA MADRUGADA. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL REPORTADA RECIENTEMENTE POR UN AVION CAZA HURACANES ES DE 944 MB...27.88 PULGADAS. SE PUEDEN ESPERAR INUNDACIONES COSTERAS POR MAREJADAS CICLONICAS DE 7 A 11 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA...CON NIVELES MAYORES EN LAS BAHIAS...ACOMPANADAS POR GRANDES Y PELIGROSAS OLAS ROMPIENTES...CERCA Y AL NORTE DE DONDE EL CENTRO ENTRE A TIERRA. LA LLUVIA MAS FUERTE ES PROBABLE SOBRE EL NORESTE DE MEXICO DONDE 5 A 10 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE HASTA 15 PULGADAS EN LAS MONTANAS. ESTAS LLUVIAS PUEDEN CAUSAR INUNDACIONES REPENTINAS Y DERRUMBES QUE PUEDEN AMENAZAR LAS VIDAS. SON POSIBLES TORNADOS AISLADOS BIEN AL SUR DE TEXAS ESTA NOCHE...Y SOBRE EL SUR Y SUR CENTRAL DE TEXAS EL MIERCOLES. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 10 PM CDT...24.5 NORTE... 96.4 OESTE. MOVIENDOSE AL...OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 7 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 125 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA... 944 MILIBARAS. ADVERTENCIAS INTERMEDIAS SERAN EMITIDAS POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 1200 AM CDT Y 2 AM CDT SEGUIDO POR LA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA HASTA LAS 4 AM CDT. PRONOSTICADOR KNABB $$ ** WTCA45 TJSJ 200303 *** TCPSP5 BOLETIN HURACAN EMILY ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 38 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 10 PM CDT MARTES 19 DE JULIO DE 2005 ...INTENSO HURACAN EMILY LENTAMENTE ACERCANDOSE A LA COSTA NORESTE DE MEXICO... UN AVISO DE HURACAN ESTA EN EFECTO PARA LA COSTA BAJA DE TEXAS DESDE PORT MANSFIELD HACIA EL SUR HASTA LA FRONTERA DE TEXAS Y MEXICO. UN AVISO DE HURACAN ESTA EN EFECTO PARA EL NORESTE DE MEXICO DESDE EL SUR DE LA FRONTERA DE TEXAS Y MEXICO HASTA LA CRUZ Y UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA EN EFECTO DESDE EL SUR DE LA CRUZ HASTA CABO ROJO. UN AVISO DE HURACAN O DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE HURACAN O TORMENTA TROPICAL...RESPECTIVAMENTE...SE ESPERAN DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS PREPARATIVOS PARA PROTEGER VIDA Y PROPIEDAD DEBEN DE SER COMPLETADOS. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL Y UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN CONTINUAN EN EFECTO DESDE EL NORTE DE PORT MANSFIELD HASTA LA BAHIA BAFFIN TEXAS. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE HURACAN SON POSIBLES DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA EN SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE TIERRA...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA DE METEOROLOGIA LOCAL. A LAS 10 PM CDT...0300Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN EMILY ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 24.5 NORTE...LONGITUD 96.4 OESTE O COMO A 115 MILLAS... 180 KM... AL SURESTE DE MATAMOROS MEXICO Y CERCA DE 120 MILLAS... 190 KM...AL SURESTE DE BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. EMILY SE ESTA MOVIENDO AL OESTE NOROESTE A 7 MPH...11KM/HR. UN MOVIMIENTO GENERAL AL OESTE A 10 MPH SE ESPERA DURANTE LA NOCHE Y CONTINUE HASTA EL MIERCOLES. EN ESTA TRAYECTORIA...EL CENTRO DE EMILY ESTARA CERCA DE LA COSTA NORESTE DE MEXICO EL MIERCOLES EN LA MANANA. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 125 MPH...205 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. AHORA EMILY ES UN PELIGROSO HURACAN DE CATEGORIA TRES EN LA ESCALA DE HURACANES SAFFIR-SIMPSON. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO ADICIONAL...Y EMILY PUEDE CONVERTIRSE EN UN HURACAN CATEGORIA CUATRO ANTES DE TOCAR TIERRA. LOS VIENTOS DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 60 MILLAS... 95 KM...DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 160 MILLAS...260 KM. BANDAS EXTERNAS PRODUCIENDO LLUVIA MUY FUERTE Y VIENTOS EN RAFAGAS CONTINUARAN ESPARCIENDOSE A TRAVES DE LA COSTA LEJOS AL SUR DE TEXAS Y EL NORESTE DE MEXICO EN LA MADRUGADA. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL REPORTADA RECIENTEMENTE POR UN AVION CAZA HURACANES ES DE 944 MB...27.88 PULGADAS. SE PUEDEN ESPERAR INUNDACIONES COSTERAS POR MAREJADAS CICLONICAS DE 7 A 11 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA...CON NIVELES MAYORES EN LAS BAHIAS...ACOMPANADAS POR GRANDES Y PELIGROSAS OLAS ROMPIENTES...CERCA Y AL NORTE DE DONDE EL CENTRO ENTRE A TIERRA. LA LLUVIA MAS FUERTE ES PROBABLE SOBRE EL NORESTE DE MEXICO DONDE 5 A 10 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE HASTA 15 PULGADAS EN LAS MONTANAS. ESTAS LLUVIAS PUEDEN CAUSAR INUNDACIONES REPENTINAS Y DERRUMBES QUE PUEDEN AMENAZAR LAS VIDAS. SON POSIBLES TORNADOS AISLADOS BIEN AL SUR DE TEXAS ESTA NOCHE...Y SOBRE EL SUR Y SUR CENTRAL DE TEXAS EL MIERCOLES. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 10 PM CDT...24.5 NORTE... 96.4 OESTE. MOVIENDOSE AL...OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 7 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 125 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA... 944 MILIBARAS. ADVERTENCIAS INTERMEDIAS SERAN EMITIDAS POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 1200 AM CDT Y 2 AM CDT SEGUIDO POR LA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA HASTA LAS 4 AM CDT. PRONOSTICADOR KNABB $$ ** WTNT85 KNHC 200306 *** TCVAT5 EMILY WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1000 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2005 .HURRICANE EMILY TXC061-489-GMZ130-150-170-200900- /E.CON.KNHC.HU.W.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1000 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2005 BROWNSVILLE-TX 26.05N 97.17W PORT-MANSFIELD-TX 26.59N 97.29W $$ TXC261-GMZ155-175-200900- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /E.CON.KNHC.HU.A.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1000 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2005 PORT-MANSFIELD-TX 26.59N 97.29W BAFFIN-BAY-TX 27.29N 97.38W $$ ATTN...WFO...BRO... ** WTPN31 PHNC 200400 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 05E (EUGENE) WARNING NR 007 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 200000Z --- NEAR 20.2N 110.5W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 20.2N 110.5W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 201200Z --- 21.0N 112.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 210000Z --- 21.7N 114.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 211200Z --- 22.1N 116.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 220000Z --- 22.3N 118.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 230000Z --- 22.5N 122.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200000Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 201000Z, 201600Z, 202200Z AND 210400Z. FORCAST TEAM: CHARLIE// ** WTPN31 PHNC 200400 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 05E (EUGENE) WARNING NR 007 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 200000Z --- NEAR 20.2N 110.5W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 20.2N 110.5W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 201200Z --- 21.0N 112.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 210000Z --- 21.7N 114.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER ** WTPN31 PHNC 200400 RRB *** VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 211200Z --- 22.1N 116.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 220000Z --- 22.3N 118.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 230000Z --- 22.5N 122.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200000Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 201000Z, 201600Z, 202200Z AND 210400Z. FORCAST TEAM: CHARLIE// ** WTUS84 KBRO 200316 AAA *** HLSBRO TXZ248>257-200515- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT...UPDATED TO INCLUDE FLOOD WATCH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX 1014 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2005 ...MAJOR HURRICANE EMILY SLOWLY APPROACHING THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO... ...A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER TEXAS COAST FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO BROWNSVILLE... ...A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE TEXAS GULF COAST FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD... ...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE TEXAS GULF COAST FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD... ...INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ZAPATA... BROOKS...JIM HOGG...HIDALGO AND STARR COUNTIES IN DEEP SOUTH TEXAS... ...A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH 1 AM CDT WEDNESDAY MORNING... ...A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH 1 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE LOWER TEXAS COASTLINE WHICH INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES: ZAPATA...STARR...JIM HOGG...BROOKS...HIDALGO... CAMERON...WILLACY AND KENEDY. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... AT 10 PM CDT...RECREATIONAL VEHICLES WERE ORDERED TO EVACUATE FROM CAMERON COUNTY BEACH AREAS YESTERDAY...BUT NO OTHER EVACUATIONS HAVE BEEN DECLARED FOR CAMERON...WILLACY...AND KENEDY COUNTIES. THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF SOUTH PADRE ISLAND...PORT ISABEL...AND PORT MANSFIELD. COUNTY AND CITY OFFICIALS WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY. A TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS BY THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES ASSOCIATED WITH RAINBANDS MOVING INLAND THIS EVENING. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT TONIGHT FOR ALL DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 10 PM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.4 WEST OR ABOUT 115 MILES... SOUTHEAST OF MATAMOROS MEXICO AND ABOUT 120 MILES...SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 945 MILLIBARS. EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION NEAR 10 MPH IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THIS TRACK...EMILY IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL BETWEEN 6 AND 7 AM CDT WEDNESDAY MORNING APPROXIMATELY 85 MILES SOUTH OF BROWNSVILLE...OR ABOUT 60 MILES NORTH OF LA PESCA MEXICO. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... THE TEXAS DEPARTMENT OF PUBLIC SAFETY HAS CLOSED EASTBOUND TRAFFIC OVER QUEEN ISABELLA MEMORIAL CAUSEWAY. RESIDENTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE ADVICE OF LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AND OTHER GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... TIDES ARE PREDICTED TO RUN 1.7 FEET ABOVE MEAN LOWER LOW WATER AT 616 AM CDT WEDNESDAY MORNING. GIVEN THE CURRENT TRACK OF EMILY...STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO BE 7 TO 10 FEET ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. THE COMBINATION OF HIGH TIDE...STORM SURGE...AND VERY ROUGH SURF ON WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL PRODUCE COASTAL FLOODING ALONG SOUTH AND EAST FACING SHORES OF SOUTH PADRE ISLAND. ...WIND IMPACTS... AT 10 PM CDT...MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WITH HURRICANE EMILY ARE NEAR 125 MPH. EMILY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE STRENGTHENING OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL. THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST TONIGHT. SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL AREAS WITH WIND GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF PORT MANSFIELD THIS EVENING AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ...OTHER IMPACTS... THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS HIGH AS EMILY APPROACHES. SEAS HAVE INCREASED TO 18 FEET ACROSS THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS AND WAVES OF 20 AND 25 FEET ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. WAVES WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS WITH HURRICANE EMILY. ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. ALL RESIDENTS SHOULD BE AWARE OF THE DANGER POSED BY FLOODING RAINS. NEVER DRIVE INTO WATER OF UNKNOWN DEPTH. REMEMBER...TURN AROUND DON'T DROWN. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND MIDNIGHT CDT. $$ ** WTPN31 PHNC 200400 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 05E (EUGENE) WARNING NR 007 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 200000Z --- NEAR 20.2N 110.5W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 20.2N 110.5W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 201200Z --- 21.0N 112.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 210000Z --- 21.7N 114.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 211200Z --- 22.1N 116.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 220000Z --- 22.3N 118.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 230000Z --- 22.5N 122.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200000Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 201000Z, 201600Z, 202200Z AND 210400Z. FORCAST TEAM: CHARLIE// ** WTPQ20 BABJ 200300 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS HAITANG 0505 (0505) INITIAL TIME 200300 UTC 00HR 27.5N 117.8E 995HPA 18M/S 30KTS 300KM P12HR NW 15KM/H= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 200300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0505 HAITANG (0505) ANALYSIS PSTN 200300UTC 27.2N 117.8E FAIR MOVE WSW SLOWLY PRES 996HPA MXWD 040KT 30KT 300NM SOUTHEAST 110NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 210300UTC 29.2N 114.8E 80NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTNT55 KNHC 200354 *** TCEAT5 HURRICANE EMILY TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATE NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2005 AT 11 PM CDT... 0400Z... THE CENTER OF MAJOR HURRICANE EMILY WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 96.6 WEST OR ABOUT 65 MILES... 110 KM EAST OF BAHIA ALGODONES MEXICO AND 105 MILES... 170 KM... SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTPQ21 RJTD 200300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TD ANALYSIS PSTN 200300UTC 24.5N 163.5E FAIR MOVE NW 08KT PRES 1004HPA MXWD 030KT FORECAST 24HF 210300UTC 27.3N 160.4E 150NM 70% MOVE NW 07KT PRES 998HPA MXWD 040KT = ** WTNT35 KNHC 200455 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN HURRICANE EMILY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 38A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL MIDNIGHT CDT WED JUL 20 2005 ...EYE OF MAJOR HURRICANE EMILY WOBBLING TOWARD THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER TEXAS COAST FROM PORT MANSFIELD SOUTHWARD TO THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEASTERN MEXICO FROM SOUTH OF THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER TO LA CRUZ AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF LA CRUZ TO CABO ROJO. A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY TEXAS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT MIDNIGHT CDT...0500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.5 NORTH... LONGITUDE 96.8 WEST OR ABOUT 100 MILES... 160 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MATAMOROS MEXICO AND ABOUT 105 MILES... 170 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. RADAR DATA FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR IN BROWNSVILLE SHOWS THAT WHILE THE EYE OF EMILY IS WOBBLING...THE HURRICANE IS MOVING GENERALLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION NEAR 10 MPH IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF EMILY WILL BE NEAR THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO THIS MORNING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 125 MPH...205 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EMILY IS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE... AND EMILY COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES...260 KM. OUTER RAINBANDS BRINGING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE COASTS OF FAR SOUTH TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. MATAMOROS RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 47 MPH WITH A GUST TO 61 MPH. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 943 MB...27.85 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 7 TO 11 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...WITH HIGHER LEVELS IN BAYS...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS LIKELY OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO WHERE 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE LIKELY WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 15 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS AND THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER FAR SOUTH TEXAS TONIGHT...AND OVER SOUTHERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY. REPEATING THE MIDNIGHT CDT POSITION......24.5 N... 96.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 944 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 4 AM CDT. FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTSS20 VHHH 200445 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING TROPICAL STORM HAITANG (0505) HAS WEAKENED INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 HECTOPASCALS. AT 200300 UTC, IT WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO SEVEN POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (27.3 N) ONE ONE SEVEN POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (117.8 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 270 NAUTICAL MILES. NO FURTHER WARNINGS ON THIS TROPICAL DEPRESSION WILL BE ISSUED BY THE HONG KONG OBSERVATORY UNLESS REGENERATION TAKES PLACE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 210300 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTSS20 VHHH 200445 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING TROPICAL STORM HAITANG (0505) HAS WEAKENED INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 HECTOPASCALS. AT 200300 UTC, IT WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO SEVEN POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (27.3 N) ONE ONE SEVEN POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (117.8 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 270 NAUTICAL MILES. NO FURTHER WARNINGS ON THIS TROPICAL DEPRESSION WILL BE ISSUED BY THE HONG KONG OBSERVATORY UNLESS REGENERATION TAKES PLACE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 210300 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTUS84 KBRO 200505 AAA *** HLSBRO TXZ248>257-200730- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT...UPDATED TO INCLUDE FLOOD WATCH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX 1205 AM CDT WED JUL 20 2005 ...EYE OF MAJOR HURRICANE EMILY WOBBLING TOWARD THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO... ...A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER TEXAS COAST FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO BROWNSVILLE... ...A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE TEXAS GULF COAST FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD... ...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE TEXAS GULF COAST FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD... ...INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ZAPATA... BROOKS...JIM HOGG...HIDALGO AND STARR COUNTIES IN DEEP SOUTH TEXAS... ...A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH 1 AM CDT THIS MORNING... ...A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH 1 AM THIS MORNING... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE LOWER TEXAS COASTLINE WHICH INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES: ZAPATA...STARR...JIM HOGG...BROOKS...HIDALGO... CAMERON...WILLACY AND KENEDY. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... AT MIDNIGHT CDT...RECREATIONAL VEHICLES WERE ORDERED TO EVACUATE FROM CAMERON COUNTY BEACH AREAS YESTERDAY...BUT NO OTHER EVACUATIONS HAVE BEEN DECLARED FOR CAMERON...WILLACY...AND KENEDY COUNTIES. THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF SOUTH PADRE ISLAND...PORT ISABEL...AND PORT MANSFIELD. COUNTY AND CITY OFFICIALS WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY. A TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS BY THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES ASSOCIATED WITH RAINBANDS MOVING INLAND THIS EVENING. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT TONIGHT FOR ALL DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT MIDNIGHT CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.8 WEST OR ABOUT 100 MILES... SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF MATAMOROS MEXICO AND ABOUT 105 MILES... SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 943 MILLIBARS. EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION NEAR 10 MPH IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AND CONTINUE TODAY. GIVEN THIS TRACK...EMILY IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AROUND 5 AM CDT THIS MORNING APPROXIMATELY 85 MILES SOUTH OF BROWNSVILLE...OR ABOUT 60 MILES NORTH OF LA PESCA MEXICO. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... THE TEXAS DEPARTMENT OF PUBLIC SAFETY HAS CLOSED EASTBOUND TRAFFIC OVER QUEEN ISABELLA MEMORIAL CAUSEWAY. RESIDENTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE ADVICE OF LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AND OTHER GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... TIDES ARE PREDICTED TO RUN 1.7 FEET ABOVE MEAN LOWER LOW WATER AT 616 AM CDT THIS MORNING. GIVEN THE CURRENT TRACK OF EMILY...STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO BE 7 TO 10 FEET ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. THE COMBINATION OF HIGH TIDE...STORM SURGE...AND VERY ROUGH SURF ON THIS MORNING WILL PRODUCE COASTAL FLOODING ALONG SOUTH AND EAST FACING SHORES OF SOUTH PADRE ISLAND. ...WIND IMPACTS... AT MIDNIGHT CDT...MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WITH HURRICANE EMILY ARE NEAR 125 MPH. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE AND EMILY COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL. THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST TONIGHT. SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL AREAS WITH WIND GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF PORT MANSFIELD EARLY THIS MORNING. ...OTHER IMPACTS... THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS HIGH AS EMILY APPROACHES. SEAS HAVE INCREASED TO 18 FEET ACROSS THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS AND WAVES OF 20 AND 25 FEET ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. WAVES WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS WITH HURRICANE EMILY. ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 7 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. ALL RESIDENTS SHOULD BE AWARE OF THE DANGER POSED BY FLOODING RAINS. NEVER DRIVE INTO WATER OF UNKNOWN DEPTH. REMEMBER...TURN AROUND DON'T DROWN. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 2 AM CDT. $$ ** WTNT55 KNHC 200555 *** TCEAT5 HURRICANE EMILY TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATE NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1 AM CDT WED JUL 20 2005 AT 1 AM CDT... 0600Z... THE CENTER OF MAJOR HURRICANE EMILY WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 96.8 WEST OR ABOUT 55 MILES... 90 KM EAST OF BAHIA ALGODONES MEXICO AND 100 MILES... 160 KM... SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT80 EGRR 200555 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 20.07.2005 TROPICAL STORM EUGENE ANALYSED POSITION : 20.3N 110.0W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP052005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 20.07.2005 20.3N 110.0W MODERATE 12UTC 20.07.2005 21.9N 112.8W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 21.07.2005 23.7N 115.4W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 21.07.2005 25.2N 118.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 22.07.2005 25.6N 120.8W BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM ANALYSED IN THE MODEL AT POSITION : 12.8N 115.1W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 20.07.2005 12.8N 115.1W WEAK 12UTC 20.07.2005 14.1N 114.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.07.2005 16.2N 113.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 21.07.2005 17.9N 112.9W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 22.07.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH HURRICANE EMILY ANALYSED POSITION : 24.6N 95.9W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 20.07.2005 24.6N 95.9W STRONG 12UTC 20.07.2005 24.7N 97.4W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 21.07.2005 26.1N 99.6W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 21.07.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 200555