** WTNT55 KNHC 191809 *** TCEAT5 HURRICANE EMILY TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATE...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2005 CORRECTED HEADER STATUS FROM TROPICAL STORM TO HURRICANE AT 1 PM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.0 WEST OR ABOUT 175 MILES... 285 KM NORTH OF DUE EAST OF LA PESCA MEXICO AND 195 MILES...315 KM...SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTPQ20 BABJ 191800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS HAITANG 0505 (0505) INITIAL TIME 191800 UTC 00HR 26.4N 118.8E 985HPA 20M/S 30KTS 350KM P12HR WNW 10KM/H= ** WTJP21 RJTD 191800 *** WARNING 191800. WARNING VALID 201800. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. GALE WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0505 HAITANG (0505) DOWNGRADED FROM SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 990 HPA AT 27.1N 119.2E CENTRAL CHINA MOVING NORTHWEST 07 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 280 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 130 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 201800UTC AT 29.2N 115.2E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 998 HPA. BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 191800 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0505 HAITANG (0505) DOWNGRADED FROM STS ANALYSIS PSTN 191800UTC 27.1N 119.2E FAIR MOVE NW 07KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT 30KT 280NM SOUTHEAST 130NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 201800UTC 29.2N 115.2E 80NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTNT35 KNHC 191859 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN HURRICANE EMILY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 35B NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2005 ...EMILY STRENGTHENS INTO A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND FAR SOUTH TEXAS COASTAL AREAS...... ...EMILY EXPECTED TO BECOME MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER TEXAS COAST FROM PORT MANSFIELD SOUTHWARD TO THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER. A HURRICANE WARNING S IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEASTERN MEXICO FROM SOUTH OF THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER TO LA CRUZ AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF LA CRUZ TO CABO ROJO. A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY TEXAS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 2 PM CDT...1900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.1 NORTH... LONGITUDE 95.2 WEST OR ABOUT 185 MILES... 300 KM... EAST OF LA PESCA MEXICO AND ABOUT 165 MILES... 265 KM...SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR. THIS MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TODAY...WITH A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST EXPECTED TONIGHT. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF EMILY NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF MEXICO BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EMILY IS CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND EMILY COULD BECOME A MAJOR CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL WEDNESDAY MORNING. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES... 85 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES...240 KM. DURING PAST HOUR...NOAA BUOY 42002 LOCATED ABOUT 100 MILES NORTHEAST OF EMILY REPORTED A WIND GUST TO 67 MPH...110 KM/HR. OUTER RAINBANDS BRINGING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE COASTS OF FAR SOUTH TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 959 MB...28.32 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 6 TO 9 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...WITH HIGHER LEVELS IN BAYS...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF SOUTH TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. REPEATING THE 2 PM CDT POSITION...24.1 N... 95.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 100 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 959 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 4 PM CDT. FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTCA45 TJSJ 191915 *** TCPSP5 BOLETIN HURACAN EMILY ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 35B NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 2 PM CDT MARTES 19 DE JULIO DE 2005 ...EMILY SE INTENSIFICA EN UN HURACAN DE CATEGORIA DOS A MEDIDA QUE SE ACERCA AL NORESTE DE MEXICO Y A LAS AREAS COSTERAS BIEN AL SUR DE TEXAS... ...SE ESPERA QUE EMILY SE CONVIERTA EN UN HURACAN MAYOR ANTES DE ENTRAR A TIERRA... UN AVISO DE HURACAN ESTA EN EFECTO PARA LA COSTA BAJA DE TEXAS DESDE PORT MANSFIELD HACIA EL SUR HASTA LA FRONTERA DE TEXAS Y MEXICO. UN AVISO DE HURACAN ESTA EN EFECTO PARA EL NORESTE DE MEXICO DESDE EL SUR DE LA FRONTERA DE TEXAS Y MEXICO HASTA LA CRUZ Y UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA EN EFECTO DESDE EL SUR DE LA CRUZ HASTA CABO ROJO. UN AVISO DE HURACAN O DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE HURACAN O TORMENTA TROPICAL...RESPECTIVAMENTE...SE ESPERAN DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS PREPARATIVOS PARA PROTEGER VIDA Y PROPIEDAD DEBEN DE SER COMPLETADOS. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL Y UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN CONTINUAN EN EFECTO DESDE EL NORTE DE PORT MANSFIELD HASTA LA BAHIA BAFFIN TEXAS. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE HURACAN SON POSIBLES DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA EN SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE TIERRA...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA DE METEOROLOGIA LOCAL. A LAS 2 PM CDT...1900Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN EMILY ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 24.1 NORTE...LONGITUD 95.2 OESTE O COMO A 185 MILLAS... 300 KM... AL ESTE DE LA PESCA MEXICO Y COMO A 165 MILLAS... 265 KM...AL SURESTE DE BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. EMILY SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 13 MPH... 20 KM/HR. SE PRONOSTICA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO CONTINUARA HOY...CON UN GIRO GRADUAL HACIA EL OESTE ESPERANDOSE ESTA NOCHE. ESTE MOVIMIENTO DEBE TRAER EL CENTRO DE EMILY CERCA DE LA COSTA NORESTE DE MEXICO PARA EL MIERCOLES EN LA MANANA. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. EMILY ES UN HURACAN DE CATEGORIA DOS EN LA ESCALA DE HURACANES SAFFIR-SIMPSON. SE ESPERA FORTALECIMIENTO ADICIONAL DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS...Y EMILY PODRIA CONVERTIRSE EN HURACAN MAYOR DE CATEGORIA TRES ANTES DE ENTRAR A TIERRA EL MIERCOLES EN LA MANANA. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 50 MILLAS... 85 KM...DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 150 MILLAS...240 KM. DURANTE LA PASADA HORA...LA BOYA DE NOAA 42002 LOCALIZADA A UNAS 100 MILLAS AL NORESTE DE EMILY REPORTO UNA RAFAGA DE VIENTO DE 67 MPH...110 KM/HR. LAS BANDAS EXTERIORES DE LLUVIA TRAYENDO LLUVIA LOCALMENTE FUERTE Y RAFAGAS FUERTES DE VIENTO CONTINUARAN EXTENDIENDOSE A TRAVES DE LAS COSTAS MAS AL SUR DE TEXAS Y SOBRE EL NORESTE DE MEXICO MAS TARDE ESTA TARDE. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL ESTIMADA ES DE 959 MB...28.32 PULGADAS. SE PUEDEN ESPERAR INUNDACIONES COSTERAS POR MAREJADAS CICLONICAS DE 6 A 9 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA...CON NIVELES MAYORES EN LAS BAHIAS...ACOMPANADAS POR GRANDES Y PELIGROSAS OLAS ROMPIENTES...CERCA Y AL NORTE DE DONDE EL CENTRO ENTRE A TIERRA. SON POSIBLES ACUMULACIONES DE LLUVIA DE 5 A 10 PULGADAS SOBRE LA PARTE BAJA DEL VALLE DE RIO GRANDE AL SUR DE TEXAS Y EN EL NORESTE DE MEXICO...CON POSIBLES CANTIDADES MAXIMAS AISLADAS HASTA 15 PULGADAS. SON POSIBLES TORNADOS AISLADOS BIEN AL SUR DE TEXAS HOY HASTA EL MIERCOLES. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 2 PM CDT...24.1 NORTE... 95.2 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 13 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 100 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA... 959 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 4 PM CDT. PRONOSTICADOR STEWART $$ ** WTUS84 KBRO 191916 *** HLSBRO TXZ248>257-192130- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX 216 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2005 ...HURRICANE EMILY BECOMING STRONGER OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO... ...A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER TEXAS COAST FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO BROWNSVILLE... ...A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE TEXAS GULF COAST FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD... ...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE TEXAS GULF COAST FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD... ...INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ZAPATA... BROOKS...JIM HOGG...HIDALGO AND STARR COUNTIES IN DEEP SOUTH TEXAS... ...A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH 1 AM CDT WEDNESDAY MORNING... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE LOWER TEXAS COASTLINE WHICH INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES: ZAPATA...STARR...JIM HOGG...BROOKS...HIDALGO... CAMERON...WILLACY AND KENEDY. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... AT 2 PM CDT...EMERGENCY OFFICIALS DETERMINED RECREATIONAL VEHICLES SHOULD HAVE COMPLETED EVACUATION FROM CAMERON COUNTY BEACH AREAS. NO OTHER EVACUATION RECOMMENDATIONS HAVE BEEN MADE FOR CAMERON...WILLACY...AND KENEDY COUNTIES. THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF SOUTH PADRE ISLAND...PORT ISABEL...AND PORT MANSFIELD. COUNTY AND CITY OFFICIALS WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY. A TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS BY THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES ASSOCIATED WITH RAINBANDS MOVING INLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 2 PM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.2 WEST OR ABOUT 185 MILES... EAST OF LA PESCA MEXICO AND ABOUT 165 MILES...SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 959 MILLIBARS. EMILY IS MOVING WEST NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH AND A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST IS STILL EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS. GIVEN THIS TRACK...EMILY IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AROUND 2 AM CDT WEDNESDAY MORNING APPROXIMATELY 95 MILES SOUTH OF BROWNSVILLE...OR ABOUT 50 MILES NORTH OF LA PESCA MEXICO. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS SHOULD FOLLOW THE ADVICE OF LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AND OTHER GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... TIDES ARE PREDICTED TO RUN 1.7 FEET ABOVE MEAN LOWER LOW WATER AT 616 AM CDT WEDNESDAY MORNING. GIVEN THE CURRENT TRACK OF EMILY...STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO BE 6 TO 8 FEET ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. THE COMBINATION OF HIGH TIDE...STORM SURGE...AND VERY ROUGH SURF ON WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL PRODUCE COASTAL FLOODING ALONG SOUTH AND EAST FACING SHORES OF SOUTH PADRE ISLAND. ...WIND IMPACTS... AT 2 PM CDT...MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WITH HURRICANE EMILY ARE NEAR 100 MPH. EMILY IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TO A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE LATER TODAY OR EARLY TONIGHT AS IT MOVES WEST NORTHWEST ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL AREAS WITH WIND GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF PORT MANSFIELD THIS EVENING AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ...OTHER IMPACTS... THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS HIGH TODAY AS EMILY APPROACHES. WAVES WILL INCREASE TO 12 TO 15 FEET OFFSHORE TODAY WITH WAVES UP TO 18 FEET POSSIBLE TONIGHT. WAVES WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE ON WEDNESDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS WITH HURRICANE EMILY. ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 12 TO 15 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. ALL RESIDENTS SHOULD BE AWARE OF THE DANGER POSED BY FLOODING RAINS. NEVER DRIVE INTO WATER OF UNKNOWN DEPTH. REMEMBER... TURN AROUND DON'T DROWN. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 430 PM CDT. $$ VANSPEYBROECK/PATRICK ** WTNT55 KNHC 191950 *** TCEAT5 HURRICANE EMILY TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATE NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 3 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2005 AT 3 PM CDT...2000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.3 WEST OR ABOUT 160 MILES... 255 KM NORTH OF DUE EAST OF LA PESCA MEXICO AND 175 MILES...285 KM...SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTSS20 VHHH 191945 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING SEVERE TROPICAL STORM HAITANG (0505) HAS WEAKENED INTO A TROPICAL STORM WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 HECTOPASCALS. AT 191800 UTC, IT WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO SIX POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (26.5 N) ONE ONE EIGHT POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (118.8 E) AND IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN FURTHER AND MOVE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 45 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 250 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 201800 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTSS20 VHHH 191945 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING SEVERE TROPICAL STORM HAITANG (0505) HAS WEAKENED INTO A TROPICAL STORM WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 HECTOPASCALS. AT 191800 UTC, IT WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO SIX POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (26.5 N) ONE ONE EIGHT POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (118.8 E) AND IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN FURTHER AND MOVE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 45 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 250 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 201800 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTPZ45 KNHC 192027 *** TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM EUGENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT TUE JUL 19 2005 BANDING FEATURES CONTINUED TO IMPROVE MARKEDLY DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON... BRINGING DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS AT 18Z UP TO 3.5 AND 4.0 FROM TAFB AND SAB...RESPECTIVELY. A BLEND OF THE SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS GIVES AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 60 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...ALTHOUGH IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT EUGENE HAS REACHED HURRICANE INTENSITY. THE OVERALL AMOUNT OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS DECREASED OVER THE PAST COUPLE HOURS...HOWEVER...AND EUGENE HAS ALREADY PASSED THE 26C SST ISOTHERM. CONSEQUENTLY...NO ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED. THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE GFDL AND GLOBAL MODEL TRENDS...WHICH CALL FOR A FAIRLY RAPID DISSIPATION. THE SHIPS GUIDANCE CALLS FOR A SLOWER DECAY. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/15...AND OVER THE PAST COUPLE HOURS EVEN MORE WEST THAN THAT. EUGENE WAS EXPECTED TO TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES...BUT NOT THIS QUICKLY. SHOULD THIS MOTION BE MAINTAINED THEN TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL NOT REACH BAJA...BUT WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE MOTION FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS TO BE CERTAIN THAT THE TURN HAS ACTUALLY OCCURRED. MODEL GUIDANCE IS STILL BASICALLY NORTHWEST FOR ANOTHER 12 HOURS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONSERVATIVELY IS CLOSE TO THIS GUIDANCE AND THE PRECEDING FORECAST. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 19/2100Z 20.0N 109.7W 60 KT 12HR VT 20/0600Z 21.2N 111.3W 55 KT 24HR VT 20/1800Z 22.2N 113.3W 40 KT 36HR VT 21/0600Z 22.6N 115.2W 30 KT 48HR VT 21/1800Z 22.9N 117.2W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 72HR VT 22/1800Z 23.0N 121.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 23/1800Z 23.0N 125.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ ** WTPZ25 KNHC 192027 *** TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM EUGENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052005 2100Z TUE JUL 19 2005 A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA...SOUTH OF AGUA BLANCA ON THE WEST COAST AND SOUTH OF BUENAVISTA ON THE EAST COAST. THIS MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 109.7W AT 19/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 50NE 60SE 25SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 50SW 75NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 150SE 125SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 109.7W AT 19/2100Z AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 109.0W FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 21.2N 111.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 50SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 75NE 90SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 22.2N 113.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 22.6N 115.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 22.9N 117.2W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 23.0N 121.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 23.0N 125.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.0N 109.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTPZ35 KNHC 192028 *** TCPEP5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM EUGENE ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT TUE JUL 19 2005 ...EUGENE NOW MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA...SOUTH OF AGUA BLANCA ON THE WEST COAST AND SOUTH OF BUENAVISTA ON THE EAST COAST. THIS MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 2 PM PDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EUGENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.0 NORTH... LONGITUDE 109.7 WEST OR ABOUT 200 MILES... 325 KM... SOUTH OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO. EUGENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH ...28 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. HOWEVER...SHOULD EUGENE MOVE MORE TO THE NORTH THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS COULD REACH THE WATCH AREA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES ...165 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 989 MB...29.21 INCHES. REPEATING THE 2 PM PDT POSITION...20.0 N...109.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 989 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 8 PM PDT. FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTSS20 VHHH 191945 CCA *** CORRECTION TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING SEVERE TROPICAL STORM HAITANG (0505) HAS WEAKENED INTO A TROPICAL STORM WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 HECTOPASCALS. AT 191800 UTC, IT WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO SIX POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (26.5 N) ONE ONE EIGHT POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (118.8 E) AND IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN FURTHER AND MOVE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 45 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 250 NAUTICAL MILES OVER EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 120 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 300 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 201800 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTSS20 VHHH 191945 CCA *** CORRECTION TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING SEVERE TROPICAL STORM HAITANG (0505) HAS WEAKENED INTO A TROPICAL STORM WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 HECTOPASCALS. AT 191800 UTC, IT WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO SIX POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (26.5 N) ONE ONE EIGHT POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (118.8 E) AND IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN FURTHER AND MOVE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 45 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 250 NAUTICAL MILES OVER EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 120 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 300 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 201800 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTNT35 KNHC 192032 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN HURRICANE EMILY ADVISORY NUMBER 36 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 4 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2005 ...EMILY CONTINUES TO GET BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT APPROACHES NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND FAR SOUTH TEXAS COASTAL AREAS...... ...EMILY EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER TEXAS COAST FROM PORT MANSFIELD SOUTHWARD TO THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEASTERN MEXICO FROM SOUTH OF THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER TO LA CRUZ AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF LA CRUZ TO CABO ROJO. A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY TEXAS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 95.6 WEST OR ABOUT 145 MILES... 230 KM... EAST-NORTHEAST OF LA PESCA MEXICO AND ABOUT 160 MILES... 260 KM...SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF EMILY NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF MEXICO BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EMILY IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO...AND EMILY COULD STILL BECOME A MAJOR CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE BEFORE IT MAKES LANDFALL WEDNESDAY MORNING. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES... 85 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES...240 KM. DURING THE PAST HOUR...NOAA BUOY 42002 LOCATED ABOUT 120 MILES NORTHEAST OF EMILY REPORTED A WIND GUST TO 76 MPH...110 KM/HR. OUTER RAINBANDS BRINGING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE COASTS OF FAR SOUTH TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTS IS 956 MB...28.23 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 7 TO 10 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...WITH HIGHER LEVELS IN BAYS...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS AND THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY...WITH ISOLATED 10 TO 12 INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. HEAVIER RAINFALL IS LIKELY OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO WHERE 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE LIKELY...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER FAR SOUTH TEXAS TONIGHT...AND OVER SOUTHERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY. REPEATING THE 4 PM CDT POSITION...24.3 N... 95.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 956 MB. INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 6 PM CDT AND 8 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 10 PM CDT. FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT25 KNHC 192034 *** TCMAT5 HURRICANE EMILY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 36 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052005 2100Z TUE JUL 19 2005 A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER TEXAS COAST FROM PORT MANSFIELD SOUTHWARD TO THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEASTERN MEXICO FROM SOUTH OF THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER TO LA CRUZ AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF LA CRUZ TO CABO ROJO. A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY TEXAS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.3N 95.6W AT 19/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 956 MB EYE DIAMETER 20 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 64 KT....... 45NE 35SE 20SW 35NW. 50 KT....... 85NE 55SE 40SW 70NW. 34 KT.......130NE 110SE 70SW 110NW. 12 FT SEAS..190NE 100SE 120SW 170NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.3N 95.6W AT 19/2100Z AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.1N 95.1W FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 24.6N 97.2W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 45NE 35SE 20SW 35NW. 50 KT... 85NE 55SE 40SW 70NW. 34 KT...130NE 110SE 70SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 24.7N 99.3W...DISSIPATING INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...130NE 110SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 24.7N 101.5W...REMNANT LOW INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED INLAND REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.3N 95.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTUS84 KBRO 192035 AAA *** HLSBRO TXZ248>257-192130- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT...UPDATED TO INCLUDE FLOOD WATCH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX 335 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2005 ...HURRICANE EMILY BECOMING STRONGER OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO... ...A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER TEXAS COAST FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO BROWNSVILLE... ...A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE TEXAS GULF COAST FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD... ...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE TEXAS GULF COAST FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD... ...INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ZAPATA... BROOKS...JIM HOGG...HIDALGO AND STARR COUNTIES IN DEEP SOUTH TEXAS... ...A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH 1 AM CDT WEDNESDAY MORNING... ...A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH 1 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE LOWER TEXAS COASTLINE WHICH INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES: ZAPATA...STARR...JIM HOGG...BROOKS...HIDALGO... CAMERON...WILLACY AND KENEDY. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... AT 2 PM CDT...EMERGENCY OFFICIALS DETERMINED RECREATIONAL VEHICLES SHOULD HAVE COMPLETED EVACUATION FROM CAMERON COUNTY BEACH AREAS. NO OTHER EVACUATION RECOMMENDATIONS HAVE BEEN MADE FOR CAMERON...WILLACY...AND KENEDY COUNTIES. THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF SOUTH PADRE ISLAND...PORT ISABEL...AND PORT MANSFIELD. COUNTY AND CITY OFFICIALS WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY. A TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS BY THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES ASSOCIATED WITH RAINBANDS MOVING INLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 2 PM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.2 WEST OR ABOUT 185 MILES... EAST OF LA PESCA MEXICO AND ABOUT 165 MILES...SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 959 MILLIBARS. EMILY IS MOVING WEST NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH AND A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST IS STILL EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS. GIVEN THIS TRACK...EMILY IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AROUND 2 AM CDT WEDNESDAY MORNING APPROXIMATELY 95 MILES SOUTH OF BROWNSVILLE...OR ABOUT 50 MILES NORTH OF LA PESCA MEXICO. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS SHOULD FOLLOW THE ADVICE OF LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AND OTHER GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... TIDES ARE PREDICTED TO RUN 1.7 FEET ABOVE MEAN LOWER LOW WATER AT 616 AM CDT WEDNESDAY MORNING. GIVEN THE CURRENT TRACK OF EMILY...STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO BE 6 TO 8 FEET ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. THE COMBINATION OF HIGH TIDE...STORM SURGE...AND VERY ROUGH SURF ON WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL PRODUCE COASTAL FLOODING ALONG SOUTH AND EAST FACING SHORES OF SOUTH PADRE ISLAND. ...WIND IMPACTS... AT 2 PM CDT...MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WITH HURRICANE EMILY ARE NEAR 100 MPH. EMILY IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TO A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE LATER TODAY OR EARLY TONIGHT AS IT MOVES WEST NORTHWEST ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL AREAS WITH WIND GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF PORT MANSFIELD THIS EVENING AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ...OTHER IMPACTS... THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS HIGH TODAY AS EMILY APPROACHES. WAVES WILL INCREASE TO 12 TO 15 FEET OFFSHORE TODAY WITH WAVES UP TO 18 FEET POSSIBLE TONIGHT. WAVES WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE ON WEDNESDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS WITH HURRICANE EMILY. ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 12 TO 15 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. ALL RESIDENTS SHOULD BE AWARE OF THE DANGER POSED BY FLOODING RAINS. NEVER DRIVE INTO WATER OF UNKNOWN DEPTH. REMEMBER... TURN AROUND DON'T DROWN. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 430 PM CDT. $$ VANSPEYBROECK/PATRICK ** WTNT75 KNHC 192035 *** SPFAT5 HURRICANE EMILY PROBABILITIES NUMBER 36 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 4 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.6 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 1PM CDT FRI JUL 22 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 24.7N 99.3W 40 X X X 40 CORPUSCHRISTI TX 2 2 X X 4 24.7N 101.5W 19 9 X X 28 BROWNSVILLE TX 44 X X X 44 99 X X X 99 GULF 27N 96W 6 1 X X 7 MMSO 238N 982W 38 X X X 38 GULF 25N 96W 99 X X X 99 MMTM 222N 979W 1 1 X X 2 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 1PM WED FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 1PM WED TO 1AM THU C FROM 1AM THU TO 1PM THU D FROM 1PM THU TO 1PM FRI E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 1PM FRI X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT85 KNHC 192042 *** TCVAT5 EMILY WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 400 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2005 .HURRICANE EMILY TXC061-489-GMZ130-150-170-200300- /E.CON.KNHC.HU.W.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 400 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2005 BROWNSVILLE-TX 26.05N 97.17W PORT-MANSFIELD-TX 26.59N 97.29W $$ TXC261-GMZ155-175-200300- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /E.CON.KNHC.HU.A.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 400 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2005 PORT-MANSFIELD-TX 26.59N 97.29W BAFFIN-BAY-TX 27.29N 97.38W $$ ATTN...WFO...BRO... ** WTCA45 TJSJ 192050 *** TCPSP5 BOLETIN HURACAN EMILY ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 36 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 4 PM CDT MARTES 19 DE JULIO DE 2005 ...EMILY CONTINUA TORNANDOSE MEJOR ORGANIZADO A MEDIDA QUE SE ACERCA AL NORESTE DE MEXICO Y A LAS AREAS COSTERAS BIEN AL SUR DE TEXAS...... SE ESPERA QUE EMILY SE CONVIERTA EN UN HURACAN MAYOR ANTES DE ENTRAR A TIERRA... UN AVISO DE HURACAN ESTA EN EFECTO PARA LA COSTA BAJA DE TEXAS DESDE PORT MANSFIELD HACIA EL SUR HASTA LA FRONTERA DE TEXAS Y MEXICO. UN AVISO DE HURACAN ESTA EN EFECTO PARA EL NORESTE DE MEXICO DESDE EL SUR DE LA FRONTERA DE TEXAS Y MEXICO HASTA LA CRUZ Y UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA EN EFECTO DESDE EL SUR DE LA CRUZ HASTA CABO ROJO. UN AVISO DE HURACAN O DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE HURACAN O TORMENTA TROPICAL...RESPECTIVAMENTE...SE ESPERAN DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS PREPARATIVOS PARA PROTEGER VIDA Y PROPIEDAD DEBEN DE SER COMPLETADOS. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL Y UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN CONTINUAN EN EFECTO DESDE EL NORTE DE PORT MANSFIELD HASTA LA BAHIA BAFFIN TEXAS. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE HURACAN SON POSIBLES DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA EN SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE TIERRA...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA DE METEOROLOGIA LOCAL. A LAS 4 PM CDT...2100Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN EMILY ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 24.3 NORTE...LONGITUD 95.6 OESTE O COMO A 145 MILLAS... 230 KM... AL ESTE DE LA PESCA MEXICO Y COMO A 160 MILLAS... 265 KM...AL SURESTE DE BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. EMILY SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 12 MPH... 19 KM/HR. SE PRONOSTICA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO CONTINUARA HOY...CON UN GIRO GRADUAL HACIA EL OESTE ESPERANDOSE ESTA NOCHE. ESTE MOVIMIENTO DEBE TRAER EL CENTRO DE EMILY CERCA DE LA COSTA NORESTE DE MEXICO PARA EL MIERCOLES EN LA MANANA. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. EMILY ES UN HURACAN DE CATEGORIA DOS EN LA ESCALA DE HURACANES SAFFIR-SIMPSON. SE ESPERA FORTALECIMIENTO ADICIONAL DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 12 HORAS O MAS...Y EMILY PODRIA CONVERTIRSE EN HURACAN MAYOR DE CATEGORIA TRES ANTES DE ENTRAR A TIERRA EL MIERCOLES EN LA MANANA. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 50 MILLAS... 85 KM...DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 150 MILLAS...240 KM. DURANTE LA PASADA HORA...LA BOYA DE NOAA 42002 LOCALIZADA A UNAS 120 MILLAS AL NORESTE DE EMILY REPORTO UNA RAFAGA DE VIENTO DE 76 MPH...110 KM/HR. LAS BANDAS EXTERIORES DE LLUVIA TRAYENDO LLUVIA LOCALMENTE FUERTE Y RAFAGAS FUERTES DE VIENTO CONTINUARAN EXTENDIENDOSE A TRAVES DE LAS COSTAS MAS AL SUR DE TEXAS Y SOBRE EL NORESTE DE MEXICO MAS TARDE ESTA TARDE Y ESTA NOCHE. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL OBTENIDA POR UN AVION CAZA HURACANES FUE DE 956 MB...28.23 PULGADAS. SE PUEDEN ESPERAR INUNDACIONES COSTERAS POR MAREJADAS CICLONICAS DE 7 A 10 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA...CON NIVELES MAYORES EN LAS BAHIAS...ACOMPANADAS POR GRANDES Y PELIGROSAS OLAS ROMPIENTES...CERCA Y AL NORTE DE DONDE EL CENTRO ENTRE A TIERRA. SON POSIBLES ACUMULACIONES DE LLUVIA DE 4 A 8 PULGADAS SOBRE LA PARTE BAJA DEL VALLE DE RIO GRANDE AL SUR DE TEXAS Y EN EL NORESTE DE MEXICO...CON POSIBLES CANTIDADES MAXIMAS AISLADAS DE 10 A 12 PULGADAS. LLUVIA FUERTE ES POSIBLE SOBRE EL NORESTE DE MEXICO SONDE 5 A 10 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES...CON CANTIDADES POSIBLES DE LLUVIA DE 15 PULGADAS. SON POSIBLES TORNADOS AISLADOS BIEN AL SUR DE TEXAS ESTA NOCHE...Y SOBRE EL SUR Y SUR CENTRAL DE TEXAS EL MIERCOLES. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 4 PM CDT...24.3 NORTE... 95.6 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 12 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 100 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA... 956 MILIBARAS. ADVERTENCIAS INTERMEDIAS SERAN EMITIDAS POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 6PM CDT Y 8 PM CDT SEGUIDO POR UNA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 10 PM CDT. PRONOSTICADOR STEWART $$ ** WTUS84 KBRO 192052 AAA *** HLSBRO TXZ248>257-192130- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT...UPDATED TO INCLUDE FLOOD WATCH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX 342 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2005 ...HURRICANE EMILY BECOMING STRONGER OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO... ...A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER TEXAS COAST FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO BROWNSVILLE... ...A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE TEXAS GULF COAST FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD... ...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE TEXAS GULF COAST FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD... ...INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ZAPATA... BROOKS...JIM HOGG...HIDALGO AND STARR COUNTIES IN DEEP SOUTH TEXAS... ...A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH 1 AM CDT WEDNESDAY MORNING... ...A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH 1 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE LOWER TEXAS COASTLINE WHICH INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES: ZAPATA...STARR...JIM HOGG...BROOKS...HIDALGO... CAMERON...WILLACY AND KENEDY. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... AT 4 PM CDT...EMERGENCY OFFICIALS DETERMINED RECREATIONAL VEHICLES SHOULD HAVE COMPLETED EVACUATION FROM CAMERON COUNTY BEACH AREAS. NO OTHER EVACUATION RECOMMENDATIONS HAVE BEEN MADE FOR CAMERON...WILLACY...AND KENEDY COUNTIES. THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF SOUTH PADRE ISLAND...PORT ISABEL...AND PORT MANSFIELD. COUNTY AND CITY OFFICIALS WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY. A TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS BY THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES ASSOCIATED WITH RAINBANDS MOVING INLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT TONIGHT FOR ALL DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 4 PM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.6 WEST OR ABOUT 145 MILES... EAST OF LA PESCA MEXICO AND ABOUT 160 MILES...SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 956 MILLIBARS. EMILY IS MOVING WEST NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH AND A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST IS STILL EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS. GIVEN THIS TRACK...EMILY IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AROUND 2 AM CDT WEDNESDAY MORNING APPROXIMATELY 95 MILES SOUTH OF BROWNSVILLE...OR ABOUT 50 MILES NORTH OF LA PESCA MEXICO. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS SHOULD FOLLOW THE ADVICE OF LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AND OTHER GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... TIDES ARE PREDICTED TO RUN 1.7 FEET ABOVE MEAN LOWER LOW WATER AT 616 AM CDT WEDNESDAY MORNING. GIVEN THE CURRENT TRACK OF EMILY...STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO BE 7 TO 10 FEET ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. THE COMBINATION OF HIGH TIDE...STORM SURGE...AND VERY ROUGH SURF ON WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL PRODUCE COASTAL FLOODING ALONG SOUTH AND EAST FACING SHORES OF SOUTH PADRE ISLAND. ...WIND IMPACTS... AT 4 PM CDT...MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WITH HURRICANE EMILY ARE NEAR 100 MPH. EMILY IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TO A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE LATER TODAY OR EARLY TONIGHT AS IT MOVES WEST NORTHWEST ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL AREAS WITH WIND GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF PORT MANSFIELD THIS EVENING AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ...OTHER IMPACTS... THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS HIGH TODAY AS EMILY APPROACHES. WAVES HAVE INCREASED TO 15 FEET OFFSHORE TODAY WITH WAVES BETWEEN 18 AND 20 FEET POSSIBLE TONIGHT. WAVES WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE ON WEDNESDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS WITH HURRICANE EMILY. ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 10 TO 12 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. ALL RESIDENTS SHOULD BE AWARE OF THE DANGER POSED BY FLOODING RAINS. NEVER DRIVE INTO WATER OF UNKNOWN DEPTH. REMEMBER...TURN AROUND DON'T DROWN. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 7 PM CDT. $$ VANSPEYBROECK/PATRICK ** WTNT45 KNHC 192056 *** TCDAT5 HURRICANE EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER 36 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2005 DOPPLER RADAR...SATELLITE IMAGES...AND REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT EMILY IS STILL GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS DECREASED ABOUT 14 MB IN THE PAST 4 HOURS...BUT THE MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS HAVE ONLY INCREASED TO 96 KT ON THE OUTBOUND LEG AT 1939Z. HOWEVER...THE RECON WIND DATA ALSO INDICATED A TRIPLE WIND MAXIMUM IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT AT ABOUT 20...40...AND 50 N MI FROM THE CENTER. THIS HAS LIKELY SPREAD OUT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND...FORTUNATELY...NOT ALLOWED THE WINDS TO INCREASE TO MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH LIKE THE CENTRAL PRESSURE WOULD TYPICALLY SUPPORT. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO EXPAND AND IMPROVE IN ALL QUADRANTS...BUT ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. WHEN THE WIGGLES AND WOBBLES ARE SMOOTHED OUT...THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/10. RADAR AND RECON DATA SUGGEST THAT THE INNER-CORE WIND FIELD AND EYE HAVE PROBABLY STABILIZED NOW. SPECIAL 18Z UPPER-AIR OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT LIES ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. GULF COAST WESTWARD TO SOUTHEASTERN AND WESTERN TEXAS HAS CHANGED LITTLE DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. AS SUCH...A GENERAL 285-290 DEGREES MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO...AND POSSIBLY EVEN UP UNTIL LANDFALL OCCURS...WITH A GRADUAL BEND TOWARD THE WEST AFTERWARDS. EVEN IF EMILY WAS TO MAINTAIN A 295 DEGREE MOTION...THE EYE WOULD STILL REMAIN AT LEAST 50 N MI SOUTH OF THE TEXAS BORDER. THE GFDL AND GFS MODELS ARE ALREADY SOUTH OF THE CURRENT POSITION...SO THE FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED A TAD NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...AND IS ALSO A LITTLE NORTH OF NHC MODEL CONSENSUS. THE BIG QUESTION IS WHEN WILL EMILY'S WINDS FINALLY ADJUST TO THE CENTRAL PRESSURE? THE EYE HAS CONTINUED TO CLEAR OUT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY AND HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED AND HAS ALSO CONTRACTED AS SEEN IN THE BROWNSVILLE WSR-88 DOPPLER RADAR DATA. THE TRIPLE WIND MAXIMUM IS STILL NOTED IN THE RADAR DATA...BUT THE REFLECTIVITY IN THOSE CONVECTIVE BANDS HAS DECREASED. THIS MAY BE A SIGN THAT THE OUTER WIND FIELD IS BEGINNING TO WEAKEN...WHICH WOULD ALLOW THE INNER WIND FIELD TO SPIN UP. GIVEN THE VERY FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN AND SSTS OF 85F AND WARMER...A PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO RIGHT UP UNTIL LANDFALL OCCURS. AFTER LANDFALL...RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED OVER THE ROUGH AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO. IF EMILY FOLLOWS THE FORECAST TRACK...HURRICANE CONDITIONS WOULD LIKELY REMAIN SOUTH OF THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT COULD BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS TO FAR SOUTH TEXAS. EVEN IF EMILY BENDS TO THE WEST AS FORECAST...AN NHC EXPERIMENTAL PRODUCT SHOWS THERE IS AT LEAST AN 85 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS IN THE BROWNSVILLE AREA. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 19/2100Z 24.3N 95.6W 85 KT 12HR VT 20/0600Z 24.6N 97.2W 100 KT 24HR VT 20/1800Z 24.7N 99.3W 35 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND 36HR VT 21/0600Z 24.7N 101.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW INLAND 48HR VT 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED INLAND $$ ** WTPQ20 BABJ 192100 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS HAITANG 0505 (0505) INITIAL TIME 192100 UTC 00HR 26.7N 118.2E 990HPA 18M/S 30KTS 300KM P12HR NW 10KM/H= ** WTUS84 KBRO 192131 CCA *** HLSBRO TXZ248>257-200030- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT...CORRECTED EXPIRATION TIME NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX 342 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2005 ...HURRICANE EMILY BECOMING STRONGER OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO... ...A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER TEXAS COAST FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO BROWNSVILLE... ...A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE TEXAS GULF COAST FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD... ...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE TEXAS GULF COAST FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD... ...INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ZAPATA... BROOKS...JIM HOGG...HIDALGO AND STARR COUNTIES IN DEEP SOUTH TEXAS... ...A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH 1 AM CDT WEDNESDAY MORNING... ...A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH 1 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE LOWER TEXAS COASTLINE WHICH INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES: ZAPATA...STARR...JIM HOGG...BROOKS...HIDALGO... CAMERON...WILLACY AND KENEDY. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... AT 4 PM CDT...EMERGENCY OFFICIALS DETERMINED RECREATIONAL VEHICLES SHOULD HAVE COMPLETED EVACUATION FROM CAMERON COUNTY BEACH AREAS. NO OTHER EVACUATION RECOMMENDATIONS HAVE BEEN MADE FOR CAMERON...WILLACY...AND KENEDY COUNTIES. THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF SOUTH PADRE ISLAND...PORT ISABEL...AND PORT MANSFIELD. COUNTY AND CITY OFFICIALS WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY. A TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS BY THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES ASSOCIATED WITH RAINBANDS MOVING INLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT TONIGHT FOR ALL DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 4 PM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.6 WEST OR ABOUT 145 MILES... EAST OF LA PESCA MEXICO AND ABOUT 160 MILES...SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 956 MILLIBARS. EMILY IS MOVING WEST NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH AND A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST IS STILL EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS. GIVEN THIS TRACK...EMILY IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AROUND 2 AM CDT WEDNESDAY MORNING APPROXIMATELY 95 MILES SOUTH OF BROWNSVILLE...OR ABOUT 50 MILES NORTH OF LA PESCA MEXICO. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS SHOULD FOLLOW THE ADVICE OF LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AND OTHER GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... TIDES ARE PREDICTED TO RUN 1.7 FEET ABOVE MEAN LOWER LOW WATER AT 616 AM CDT WEDNESDAY MORNING. GIVEN THE CURRENT TRACK OF EMILY...STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO BE 7 TO 10 FEET ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. THE COMBINATION OF HIGH TIDE...STORM SURGE...AND VERY ROUGH SURF ON WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL PRODUCE COASTAL FLOODING ALONG SOUTH AND EAST FACING SHORES OF SOUTH PADRE ISLAND. ...WIND IMPACTS... AT 4 PM CDT...MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WITH HURRICANE EMILY ARE NEAR 100 MPH. EMILY IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TO A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE LATER TODAY OR EARLY TONIGHT AS IT MOVES WEST NORTHWEST ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL AREAS WITH WIND GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF PORT MANSFIELD THIS EVENING AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ...OTHER IMPACTS... THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS HIGH TODAY AS EMILY APPROACHES. WAVES HAVE INCREASED TO 15 FEET OFFSHORE TODAY WITH WAVES BETWEEN 18 AND 20 FEET POSSIBLE TONIGHT. WAVES WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE ON WEDNESDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS WITH HURRICANE EMILY. ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 10 TO 12 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. ALL RESIDENTS SHOULD BE AWARE OF THE DANGER POSED BY FLOODING RAINS. NEVER DRIVE INTO WATER OF UNKNOWN DEPTH. REMEMBER...TURN AROUND DON'T DROWN. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 7 PM CDT. $$ VANSPEYBROECK/PATRICK ** WTPN31 PHNC 192200 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 05E (EUGENE) WARNING NR 006 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 191800Z --- NEAR 19.7N 109.0W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 15 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.7N 109.0W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z --- 21.2N 111.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z --- 22.2N 113.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z --- 22.6N 115.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z --- 22.9N 117.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 23.0N 121.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 23.0N 125.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 200400Z, 201000Z, 201600Z AND 202200Z.// ** WTPN31 PHNC 192200 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 05E (EUGENE) WARNING NR 006 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 191800Z --- NEAR 19.7N 109.0W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 15 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.7N 109.0W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z --- 21.2N 111.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 11 KTS ** WTPN31 PHNC 192200 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 05E (EUGENE) WARNING NR 006 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 191800Z --- NEAR 19.7N 109.0W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 15 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.7N 109.0W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z --- 21.2N 111.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z --- 22.2N 113.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z --- 22.6N 115.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z --- 22.9N 117.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 23.0N 121.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 23.0N 125.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 200400Z, 201000Z, 201600Z AND 202200Z.// ** WTPN31 PHNC 192200 RRB *** --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z --- 22.2N 113.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z --- 22.6N 115.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z --- 22.9N 117.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 23.0N 121.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 23.0N 125.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 200400Z, 201000Z, 201600Z AND 202200Z.// ** WTNT65 KNHC 192143 *** TCUAT5 HURRICANE EMILY TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 443 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2005 DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS IN EMILY HAVE INCREASED TO AT LEAST 115 MPH... MAKING EMILY A MAJOR CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ADDITIONALLY... THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS DROPPED TO 942 MB... OR 27.82 INCHES. FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTPQ20 RJTD 192100 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0505 HAITANG (0505) ANALYSIS PSTN 192100UTC 27.4N 118.3E FAIR MOVE WNW 12KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT 30KT 325NM SOUTHEAST 110NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 202100UTC 29.3N 114.9E 80NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTNT55 KNHC 192153 *** TCEAT5 HURRICANE EMILY TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATE NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2005 AT 5 PM CDT...2200Z...THE CENTER OF MAJOR HURRICANE EMILY WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.8 WEST OR ABOUT 120 MILES... 190 KM EAST OF BAHIA ALGODONES MEXICO AND 155 MILES...245 KM...SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. FORECASTER KNABB/STEWART $$ ** WTNT65 KNHC 192157 *** TCUAT5 HURRICANE EMILY TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 448 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2005 DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS IN EMILY HAVE CONTINUED TO RAPIDLY INCREASE AND ARE AT LEAST 120 MPH. A SPECIAL ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY 530 PM CDT...2230Z...REFLECTING A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST. FORECASTER KNABB/STEWART $$ ** WTPH RPLL 192100Z *** GALE WARNING NO. 04 FOR STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTHWEST MONSOON ISSUED AT 5:00AM TODAY, JULY 20, 2005 (VALID UNTIL THE NEXT BULLETIN TO BE ISSUED AT 5PM TODAY) ----- 1/2 ----- A SURGE OF STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHWEST MONSOON AND ENHANCED BY TROPICAL STORM FERIA (HAITANG) (0505) IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE NORTHERN SEABOARD OF LUZON. SEA AREAS OF BALINTANG AND BASHI CHANNELS, EAST TAIWAN AND RYUKYU WILL BE CLOUDY WITH OCCASIONAL RAINS AND WINDS OF 20- 35 KNOTS (37-65KPH). SEA CONDITIONS WILL BE ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH WITH WAVE HEIGHTS OF 2.5 TO 5 METERS. THE SEA AREAS OF CAGAYAN AND THE WEST OF WESTERN LUZON WILL HAVE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH WITH OCCASIONAL RAINS AND WINDS OF 16-25 KNOTS (28-47KPH). SEA CONDITIONS WILL BE MODERATE TO ROUGH.= ** WTPH RPLL 192100Z *** GALE WARNING NO. 04 FOR STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTHWEST MONSOON ISSUED AT 5:00AM TODAY, JULY 20, 2005 (VALID UNTIL THE NEXT BULLETIN TO BE ISSUED AT 5PM TODAY) ---- 2/2 ----- FISHING BOATS AND ALL TYPES OF SMALL SEA VESSELS ON THE WESTERN SEABOARD OF THE ILOCOS REGION, CAGAYAN, BASHI AND BALINTANG CHANNELS ARE ADVISED NOT TO VENTURE OUT INTO THE SEA WHILE ON THE REST, SEA TRAVEL IS RISKY. WATCH FOR THE NEXT UPDATE TO BE ISSUED AT 5 PM TODAY.= ** WTNT35 KNHC 192239 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN HURRICANE EMILY SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 37 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 6 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2005 ...EMILY REGAINS MAJOR CATEGORY THREE STATUS WITH 125 MPH WINDS... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER TEXAS COAST FROM PORT MANSFIELD SOUTHWARD TO THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEASTERN MEXICO FROM SOUTH OF THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER TO LA CRUZ AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF LA CRUZ TO CABO ROJO. A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY TEXAS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 6 PM CDT...2300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.5 NORTH... LONGITUDE 96.0 WEST OR ABOUT 105 MILES... 168 KM... EAST OF BAHIA ALGODONES MEXICO AND ABOUT 135 MILES... 215 KM...SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH ...19 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF EMILY NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF MEXICO BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED AND ARE NEAR 125 MPH...205 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EMILY IS NOW A DANGEROUS CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST... AND EMILY COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES... 95 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES...260 KM. OUTER RAINBANDS BRINGING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE COASTS OF FAR SOUTH TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO TONIGHT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 945 MB...27.91 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 7 TO 11 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...WITH HIGHER LEVELS IN BAYS...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS AND THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY...WITH ISOLATED 10 TO 12 INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. HEAVIER RAINFALL IS LIKELY OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO WHERE 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE LIKELY...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER FAR SOUTH TEXAS TONIGHT...AND OVER SOUTHERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY. REPEATING THE 6 PM CDT POSITION...24.5 N... 96.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 945 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 10 PM CDT. FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT25 KNHC 192239 *** TCMAT5 HURRICANE EMILY SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 37 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052005 2300Z TUE JUL 19 2005 A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER TEXAS COAST FROM PORT MANSFIELD SOUTHWARD TO THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEASTERN MEXICO FROM SOUTH OF THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER TO LA CRUZ AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF LA CRUZ TO CABO ROJO. A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY TEXAS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 96.0W AT 19/2300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 945 MB EYE DIAMETER 20 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT. 64 KT....... 50NE 35SE 20SW 35NW. 50 KT....... 90NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. 34 KT.......140NE 110SE 70SW 110NW. 12 FT SEAS..190NE 100SE 120SW 170NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 96.0W AT 19/2300Z AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.1N 95.1W FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 24.6N 97.2W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 40SE 25SW 40NW. 50 KT... 90NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. 34 KT...140NE 110SE 70SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 24.7N 99.3W...DISSIPATING INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...140NE 110SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 24.7N 101.5W...REMNANT LOW INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.5N 96.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT75 KNHC 192240 *** SPFAT5 HURRICANE EMILY SPECIAL PROBABILITIES NUMBER 37 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 6 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 6 PM CDT...2300Z...THE CENTER OF EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.0 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 1PM CDT FRI JUL 22 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 24.7N 99.3W 40 X X X 40 CORPUSCHRISTI TX 2 2 X X 4 24.7N 101.5W 19 9 X X 28 BROWNSVILLE TX 44 X X X 44 99 X X X 99 GULF 27N 96W 6 1 X X 7 MMSO 238N 982W 38 X X X 38 GULF 25N 96W 99 X X X 99 MMTM 222N 979W 1 1 X X 2 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 1PM WED FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 1PM WED TO 1AM THU C FROM 1AM THU TO 1PM THU D FROM 1PM THU TO 1PM FRI E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 1PM FRI X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT45 KNHC 192248 *** TCDAT5 HURRICANE EMILY SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 37 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 7 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2005 THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED TO UPDATE THE INITIAL AND FORECAST INTENSITY OF EMILY. MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS AT 700 MB FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WERE 122 KT AT 2126Z... SUPPORTING THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 110 KT. THE WINDS HAVE NOW CAUGHT UP TO THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE THAT WAS ALREADY TYPICAL OF AT LEAST A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE. ADDITIONALLY... THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN EXPANDED SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTHEAST BASED ON THE LATEST AIRCRAFT DATA. THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS ALSO BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD TO REFLECT RECENT TRENDS... AND EMILY COULD REACH CATEGORY FOUR INTENSITY BEFORE LANDFALL. THE TRACK FORECAST HAS NOT BEEN CHANGED SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY. FORECASTER KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 19/2300Z 24.5N 96.0W 110 KT 12HR VT 20/0600Z 24.6N 97.2W 120 KT 24HR VT 20/1800Z 24.7N 99.3W 40 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND 36HR VT 21/0600Z 24.7N 101.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW INLAND 48HR VT 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ ** WTCA45 TJSJ 192250 *** TCPSP5 BOLETIN HURACAN EMILY ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 37 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 6 PM CDT MARTES 19 DE JULIO DE 2005 ...EMILY VUELVE A ALCANZAR LA CATEGORIA TRES CON VIENTOS DE 125 MPH... UN AVISO DE HURACAN ESTA EN EFECTO PARA LA COSTA BAJA DE TEXAS DESDE PORT MANSFIELD HACIA EL SUR HASTA LA FRONTERA DE TEXAS Y MEXICO. UN AVISO DE HURACAN ESTA EN EFECTO PARA EL NORESTE DE MEXICO DESDE EL SUR DE LA FRONTERA DE TEXAS Y MEXICO HASTA LA CRUZ Y UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA EN EFECTO DESDE EL SUR DE LA CRUZ HASTA CABO ROJO. UN AVISO DE HURACAN O DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE HURACAN O TORMENTA TROPICAL...RESPECTIVAMENTE...SE ESPERAN DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS PREPARATIVOS PARA PROTEGER VIDA Y PROPIEDAD DEBEN DE SER COMPLETADOS. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL Y UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN CONTINUAN EN EFECTO DESDE EL NORTE DE PORT MANSFIELD HASTA LA BAHIA BAFFIN TEXAS. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE HURACAN SON POSIBLES DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA EN SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE TIERRA...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA DE METEOROLOGIA LOCAL. A LAS 6 PM CDT...2300Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN EMILY ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 24.5 NORTE...LONGITUD 96.0 OESTE O COMO A 105 MILLAS... 168 KM... AL ESTE DE LA BAHIA ALGODONES Y COMO A 135 MILLAS... 215 KM...AL SURESTE DE BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. EMILY SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 12 MPH... 19 KM/HR. SE PRONOSTICA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO CONTINUARA HOY...CON UN GIRO GRADUAL HACIA EL OESTE ESPERANDOSE ESTA NOCHE. ESTE MOVIMIENTO DEBE TRAER EL CENTRO DE EMILY CERCA DE LA COSTA NORESTE DE MEXICO PARA EL MIERCOLES EN LA MANANA. INFORMACION DEL AVION CAZA HURACANES INDICA QUE LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOSHAN AUNMETADO A CERCA DE 120 MPH...205 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. AHORA EMILY ES UN PELIGROSO HURACAN DE CATEGORIA TRES EN LA ESCALA DE HURACANES SAFFIR-SIMPSON. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO ADICIONAL...Y EMILY PUEDE CONVERTIRSE EN UN HURACAN CATEGORIA CUATRO ANTES DE TOCAR TIERRA. LOS VIENTOS DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 60 MILLAS... 95 KM...DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 160 MILLAS...260 KM. BANDAS EXTERNAS PRODUCIENDO LLUVIA MUY FUERTE Y VIENTOS EN RAFAGAS CONTINUARAN ESPARCIENDOSE A TRAVES DE LA COSTA LEJOS AL SUR DE TEXAS Y EL NORESTE DE MEXICO HOY. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL OBTENIDA POR UN AVION CAZA HURACANES FUE DE 945 MB...27.91 PULGADAS. SE PUEDEN ESPERAR INUNDACIONES COSTERAS POR MAREJADAS CICLONICAS DE 7 A 10 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA...CON NIVELES MAYORES EN LAS BAHIAS...ACOMPANADAS POR GRANDES Y PELIGROSAS OLAS ROMPIENTES...CERCA Y AL NORTE DE DONDE EL CENTRO ENTRE A TIERRA. SON POSIBLES ACUMULACIONES DE LLUVIA DE 4 A 8 PULGADAS SOBRE LA PARTE BAJA DEL VALLE DE RIO GRANDE AL SUR DE TEXAS Y EN EL NORESTE DE MEXICO...CON POSIBLES CANTIDADES MAXIMAS AISLADAS DE 10 A 12 PULGADAS. LLUVIA FUERTE ES POSIBLE SOBRE EL NORESTE DE MEXICO SONDE 5 A 10 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES...CON CANTIDADES POSIBLES DE LLUVIA DE 15 PULGADAS. SON POSIBLES TORNADOS AISLADOS BIEN AL SUR DE TEXAS ESTA NOCHE...Y SOBRE EL SUR Y SUR CENTRAL DE TEXAS EL MIERCOLES. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 4 PM CDT...24.5 NORTE... 96.0 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 12 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 125 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA... 945 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA A LAS 8 PM CDT SEGUIDO POR UNA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 10 PM CDT. PRONOSTICADOR KNABB $$ ** WTNT85 KNHC 192251 *** TCVAT5 EMILY WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 600 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2005 .HURRICANE EMILY TXC061-489-GMZ130-150-170-200300- /E.CON.KNHC.HU.W.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 600 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2005 BROWNSVILLE-TX 26.05N 97.17W PORT-MANSFIELD-TX 26.59N 97.29W $$ TXC261-GMZ155-175-200300- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /E.CON.KNHC.HU.A.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 600 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2005 PORT-MANSFIELD-TX 26.59N 97.29W BAFFIN-BAY-TX 27.29N 97.38W $$ ATTN...WFO...BRO... ** WTSS20 VHHH 192245 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 192100 UTC, TROPICAL STORM HAITANG (0505) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO SEVEN POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (27.0 N) ONE ONE EIGHT POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (118.4 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 45 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 250 NAUTICAL MILES OVER EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 120 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 300 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 202100 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTSS20 VHHH 192245 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 192100 UTC, TROPICAL STORM HAITANG (0505) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO SEVEN POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (27.0 N) ONE ONE EIGHT POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (118.4 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 45 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 250 NAUTICAL MILES OVER EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 120 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 300 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 202100 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTPN21 PGTW 192230 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT/192221ZAPR05// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 23.6N 164.3E TO 26.5N 161.5E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IM AGERY AT 192025Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 23.8N 164.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 167.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 23.8N 164.1E, APPROXIMATELY 310 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF WAKE ISLAND. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY AND A 192056Z MULTISPECTRAL IMAGE INDICATE RAPIDLY INCREASING CON- VECTION AROUND A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE SYSTEM IS IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND GOOD OUTFLOW HAS DEVELOPED DUE TO LINKAGE WITH A TUTT CELL TO THE NORTHEAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. DUE TO ENHANCED OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM AND INCREASED CONVECTION, THE PO- TENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 202230Z. FORECAST TEAM: CHARLIE// ** WTUS84 KBRO 192330 AAA *** HLSBRO TXZ248>257-200100- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT...UPDATED TO INCLUDE FLOOD WATCH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX 630 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2005 ...HURRICANE EMILY BECOMING STRONGER OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO... ...A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER TEXAS COAST FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO BROWNSVILLE... ...A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE TEXAS GULF COAST FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD... ...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE TEXAS GULF COAST FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD... ...INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ZAPATA... BROOKS...JIM HOGG...HIDALGO AND STARR COUNTIES IN DEEP SOUTH TEXAS... ...A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH 1 AM CDT WEDNESDAY MORNING... ...A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH 1 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE LOWER TEXAS COASTLINE WHICH INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES: ZAPATA...STARR...JIM HOGG...BROOKS...HIDALGO... CAMERON...WILLACY AND KENEDY. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... AT 6 PM CDT...EMERGENCY OFFICIALS DETERMINED RECREATIONAL VEHICLES SHOULD HAVE COMPLETED EVACUATION FROM CAMERON COUNTY BEACH AREAS. NO OTHER EVACUATION RECOMMENDATIONS HAVE BEEN MADE FOR CAMERON...WILLACY...AND KENEDY COUNTIES. THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF SOUTH PADRE ISLAND...PORT ISABEL...AND PORT MANSFIELD. COUNTY AND CITY OFFICIALS WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY. A TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS BY THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES ASSOCIATED WITH RAINBANDS MOVING INLAND THIS EVENING. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT TONIGHT FOR ALL DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 6 PM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.0 WEST OR ABOUT 105 MILES... EAST OF BAHIA ALGODONES MEXICO AND ABOUT 135 MILES...SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 956 MILLIBARS. EMILY IS MOVING WEST NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH AND A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST IS STILL EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS. GIVEN THIS TRACK...EMILY IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AROUND 3 AM CDT WEDNESDAY MORNING APPROXIMATELY 90 MILES SOUTH OF BROWNSVILLE...OR ABOUT 55 MILES NORTH OF LA PESCA MEXICO. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS SHOULD FOLLOW THE ADVICE OF LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AND OTHER GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... TIDES ARE PREDICTED TO RUN 1.7 FEET ABOVE MEAN LOWER LOW WATER AT 616 AM CDT WEDNESDAY MORNING. GIVEN THE CURRENT TRACK OF EMILY...STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO BE 7 TO 10 FEET ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. THE COMBINATION OF HIGH TIDE...STORM SURGE...AND VERY ROUGH SURF ON WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL PRODUCE COASTAL FLOODING ALONG SOUTH AND EAST FACING SHORES OF SOUTH PADRE ISLAND. ...WIND IMPACTS... AT 6 PM CDT...MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WITH HURRICANE EMILY ARE NEAR 125 MPH. EMILY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES WEST NORTHWEST ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND EMILY COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL. THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST TONIGHT. SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL AREAS WITH WIND GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF PORT MANSFIELD THIS EVENING AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ...OTHER IMPACTS... THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS HIGH TODAY AS EMILY APPROACHES. WAVES HAVE INCREASED TO 18 FEET OFFSHORE TODAY WITH WAVES BETWEEN 20 AND 25 FEET POSSIBLE TONIGHT. WAVES WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE ON WEDNESDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS WITH HURRICANE EMILY. ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 10 TO 12 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. ALL RESIDENTS SHOULD BE AWARE OF THE DANGER POSED BY FLOODING RAINS. NEVER DRIVE INTO WATER OF UNKNOWN DEPTH. REMEMBER...TURN AROUND DON'T DROWN. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 8 PM CDT. $$ ** WTPZ35 KNHC 192352 *** TCPEP5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM EUGENE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM PDT TUE JUL 19 2005 ...EUGENE SHOWING SIGNS OF WEAKENING... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA...SOUTH OF AGUA BLANCA ON THE WEST COAST AND SOUTH OF BUENAVISTA ON THE EAST COAST. THIS MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH COULD BE DISCONTINUED LATER TONIGHT. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 5 PM PDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EUGENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.1 NORTH... LONGITUDE 110.3 WEST OR ABOUT 215 MILES... 345 KM... SOUTH OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO. EUGENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH ...28 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. HOWEVER...SHOULD EUGENE MOVE MORE TO THE NORTH THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS COULD REACH THE WATCH AREA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES ...165 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 989 MB...29.21 INCHES. REPEATING THE 5 PM PDT POSITION...20.1 N...110.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 989 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 PM PDT. FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH $$