** WTSR20 WSSS 190600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPH20 RPMM 190600 *** TTT WARNING 17 AT 0600 JULY SEVERE TROPICAL STORM (HAITANG){0505} WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT TWO FIVE POINT SEVEN NORTH ONE TWO ZERO POINT ZERO EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AT ZERO THREE METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE EIGHT ZERO HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS THREE ZERO METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER TWO FIVE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN TWO ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITION AT 200600 TWO SEVEN POINT ZERO NORTH ONE ONE SEVEN POINT THREE EAST WITH THIS DEVELOPMENT THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING FROM WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 191200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS HAITANG 0505 (0505) INITIAL TIME 191200 UTC 00HR 26.3N 119.4E 980HPA 30M/S 30KTS 380KM 50KTS 70KM P12HR NW 10KM/H= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 191100 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS HAITANG 0505 (0505) INITIAL TIME 191100 UTC 00HR 26.3N 119.6E 980HPA 30M/S 30KTS 380KM 50KTS 80KM P12HR NW 10KM/H= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 191200 CCA *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS HAITANG 0505 (0505) INITIAL TIME 191200 UTC 00HR 26.3N 119.4E 980HPA 30M/S 30KTS 380KM 50KTS 70KM P12HR NW 10KM/H P+24HR 28.8N 116.8E 995HPA 15M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 191200 *** WARNING 191200. WARNING VALID 201200. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0505 HAITANG (0505) 980 HPA AT 26.5N 119.7E TAIWAN STRAIT MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 06 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 30 MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 280 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 201200UTC AT 29.1N 116.0E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 994 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 211200UTC AT 31.0N 113.1E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 998 HPA. BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 191200 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0505 HAITANG (0505) ANALYSIS PSTN 191200UTC 26.5N 119.7E GOOD MOVE NNW 06KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 50KT 50NM EAST 30NM WEST 30KT 280NM SOUTHEAST 150NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 201200UTC 29.1N 116.0E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 10KT PRES 994HPA MXWD 035KT 48HF 211200UTC 31.0N 113.1E 150NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTSS20 VHHH 191345 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING TYPHOON HAITANG (0505) HAS WEAKENED INTO A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 HECTOPASCALS. AT 191200 UTC, IT WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO SIX POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (26.4 N) ONE ONE NINE POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (119.6 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 6 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 55 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 180 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 270 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 201200 UTC TWO EIGHT POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (28.4 N) ONE ONE SEVEN POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (117.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 211200 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTSS20 VHHH 191345 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING TYPHOON HAITANG (0505) HAS WEAKENED INTO A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 HECTOPASCALS. AT 191200 UTC, IT WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO SIX POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (26.4 N) ONE ONE NINE POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (119.6 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 6 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 55 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 180 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 270 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 201200 UTC TWO EIGHT POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (28.4 N) ONE ONE SEVEN POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (117.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 211200 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTPN31 PGTW 191500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 05W (HAITANG) WARNING NR 033 DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON 05W 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 191200Z --- NEAR 26.6N 119.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND REPEAT POSIT: 26.6N 119.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 200000Z --- 28.1N 118.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 191500Z POSITION NEAR 27.0N 119.2E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 05W (HAITANG) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 140 NM NORTHWEST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. TS 05W RECENTLY MADE LANDFALL NEAR FUZHOU, CHINA. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191200Z IS 12 FEET. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONI- TORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.// ** WTNT35 KNHC 191432 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN HURRICANE EMILY ADVISORY NUMBER 35 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 AM CDT TUE JUL 19 2005 ...EMILY BECOMING MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES TOWARD NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND FAR SOUTH TEXAS... ...EMILY EXPECTED TO BECOME A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE LATER TODAY... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER TEXAS COAST FROM PORT MANSFIELD SOUTHWARD TO THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEASTERN MEXICO FROM SOUTH OF THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER TO LA CRUZ AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF LA CRUZ TO CABO ROJO. A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY TEXAS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.9 NORTH... LONGITUDE 94.5 WEST OR ABOUT 210 MILES... 335 KM... EAST OF LA PESCA MEXICO AND ABOUT 235 MILES... 375 KM...SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF EMILY NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF MEXICO BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EMILY IS CURRENTLY A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. HOWEVER...STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND EMILY IS COULD BECOME A A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE LATER TODAY...AND A MAJOR CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL WEDNESDAY MORNING. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES... 65 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 145 MILES...230 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 972 MB...28.70 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 6 TO 9 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...WITH HIGHER LEVELS IN BAYS...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF SOUTH TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. REPEATING THE 10 AM CDT POSITION...23.9 N... 94.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 90 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 972 MB. INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT NOON CDT AND 2 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 4 PM CDT. FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT35 KNHC 191432 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN HURRICANE EMILY ADVISORY NUMBER 35 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 AM CDT TUE JUL 19 2005 ...EMILY BECOMING MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES TOWARD NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND FAR SOUTH TEXAS... ...EMILY EXPECTED TO BECOME A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE LATER TODAY... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER TEXAS COAST FROM PORT MANSFIELD SOUTHWARD TO THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEASTERN MEXICO FROM SOUTH OF THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER TO LA CRUZ AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF LA CRUZ TO CABO ROJO. A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY TEXAS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.9 NORTH... LONGITUDE 94.5 WEST OR ABOUT 210 MILES... 335 KM... EAST OF LA PESCA MEXICO AND ABOUT 235 MILES... 375 KM...SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF EMILY NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF MEXICO BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EMILY IS CURRENTLY A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. HOWEVER...STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND EMILY IS COULD BECOME A A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE LATER TODAY...AND A MAJOR CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL WEDNESDAY MORNING. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES... 65 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 145 MILES...230 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 972 MB...28.70 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 6 TO 9 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...WITH HIGHER LEVELS IN BAYS...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF SOUTH TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. REPEATING THE 10 AM CDT POSITION...23.9 N... 94.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 90 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 972 MB. INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT NOON CDT AND 2 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 4 PM CDT. FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTPZ45 KNHC 191433 *** TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM EUGENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT TUE JUL 19 2005 THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF EUGENE CONTINUES TO IMPROVE...WITH AN EXPANSION OF DEEP CONVECTION...A MORE EMBEDDED CENTER...AND GOOD BANDING IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE 55 AND 45 KT...RESPECTIVELY...AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 50 KT. ADDITIONAL STENGTHENING IS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH IN ANOTHER 6 HOURS OR SO EUGENE WILL BE CROSSING THE 26C ISOTHERM AND THAT SHOULD INITIATE A WEAKENING TREND. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE GFDL GUIDANCE...WITH THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWING A MUCH SLOWER DECLINE. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 315/13...WHICH IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT AND FASTER THAN BEFORE. MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED TO THE EAST OF EUGENE OVER CENTRAL MEXICO WITH ANOTHER RIDGE CENTERED OVER NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA. A WEAKNESS IN BETWEEN THESE FEATURES IS ALLOWING THE CURRENT NORTHWESTWARD TRACK...BUT A TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST SHOULD BEGIN WITHIN 24 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE APPROACHES THE LATTER FEATURE. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CONVERGED A LITTLE BIT COMPARED TO 6 HOURS AGO...BUT THERE REMAINS AN UNCOMFORTABLE SPREAD WITH THE UKMET AND GFDL SHOWING A CLOSE APPROACH TO THE BAJA PENINSULA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS CLOSE TO THE GUNA DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. QUIKSCAT DATA AND SHIP REPORTS INDICATE THAT THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND RADIUS IS ABOUT 90 NM IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. THE CURRENT INTENSITY AND RADII FORECASTS KEEP TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS OFF OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. WHILE EUGENE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AFTER MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS...AND THE RADII SHOULD PULL IN AS THE CONVECTION DIMINISHES...ONLY SMALL ERRORS IN THE TRACK/INTENSITY/RADII FORECASTS COULD BRING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA. CONSEQUENTLY...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 19/1500Z 19.0N 108.1W 50 KT 12HR VT 20/0000Z 20.3N 109.4W 50 KT 24HR VT 20/1200Z 21.5N 111.0W 40 KT 36HR VT 21/0000Z 22.2N 112.4W 30 KT 48HR VT 21/1200Z 22.6N 114.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 72HR VT 22/1200Z 23.0N 116.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 23/1200Z 23.0N 119.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ ** WTPZ25 KNHC 191433 *** TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM EUGENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052005 1500Z TUE JUL 19 2005 AT 8 AM PDT...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA...SOUTH OF AGUA BLANCA ON THE WEST COAST AND SOUTH OF BUENAVISTA ON THE EAST COAST. THIS MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 108.1W AT 19/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 40SW 75NW. 12 FT SEAS..125NE 150SE 150SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 108.1W AT 19/1500Z AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 107.7W FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 20.3N 109.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 75NE 90SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 21.5N 111.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 22.2N 112.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 22.6N 114.0W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 23.0N 116.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 23.0N 119.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.0N 108.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTPZ35 KNHC 191434 *** TCPEP5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM EUGENE ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT TUE JUL 19 2005 ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR EXTREME SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA... AT 8 AM PDT...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA...SOUTH OF AGUA BLANCA ON THE WEST COAST AND SOUTH OF BUENAVISTA ON THE EAST COAST. THIS MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 8 AM PDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EUGENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.0 NORTH... LONGITUDE 108.1 WEST OR ABOUT 295 MILES... 470 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO. EUGENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH ...24 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH... 95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ALTHOUGH SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE LATER TODAY...EUGENE WILL SOON BE MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS AND SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES ...165 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES. REPEATING THE 8 AM PDT POSITION...19.0 N...108.1 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 994 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 2 PM PDT. FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT25 KNHC 191434 *** TCMAT5 HURRICANE EMILY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 35 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052005 1500Z TUE JUL 19 2005 A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER TEXAS COAST FROM PORT MANSFIELD SOUTHWARD TO THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEASTERN MEXICO FROM SOUTH OF THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER TO LA CRUZ AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF LA CRUZ TO CABO ROJO. A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY TEXAS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.9N 94.5W AT 19/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 972 MB EYE DIAMETER 25 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 35NE 30SE 10SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 75NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT.......125NE 100SE 50SW 105NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 100SE 120SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.9N 94.5W AT 19/1500Z AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.7N 94.0W FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 24.4N 96.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 30SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT... 75NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT...125NE 100SE 50SW 105NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 24.6N 98.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 80NE 55SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...125NE 100SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 24.6N 100.0W...DISSIPATING INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 24.6N 102.0W...REMNANT LOW INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.9N 94.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT75 KNHC 191434 *** SPFAT5 HURRICANE EMILY PROBABILITIES NUMBER 35 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 AM CDT TUE JUL 19 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.5 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 7AM CDT FRI JUL 22 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 24.6N 98.0W 41 X X X 41 MMTX 210N 974W X X 2 X 2 24.6N 100.0W 21 7 1 X 29 CORPUSCHRISTI TX 1 3 2 X 6 24.6N 102.0W 4 16 3 X 23 BROWNSVILLE TX 30 1 X X 31 MMSO 238N 982W 29 X 1 X 30 GULF 27N 96W 8 1 1 X 10 MMTM 222N 979W 3 4 2 X 9 GULF 25N 96W 67 X X X 67 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 7AM WED FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 7AM WED TO 7PM WED C FROM 7PM WED TO 7AM THU D FROM 7AM THU TO 7AM FRI E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 7AM FRI X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT85 KNHC 191435 *** TCVAT5 EMILY WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1000 AM CDT TUE JUL 19 2005 .HURRICANE EMILY TXC061-489-GMZ130-150-170-192100- /E.CON.KNHC.HU.W.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1000 AM CDT TUE JUL 19 2005 BROWNSVILLE-TX 26.05N 97.17W PORT-MANSFIELD-TX 26.59N 97.29W $$ TXC261-GMZ155-175-192100- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /E.CON.KNHC.HU.A.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1000 AM CDT TUE JUL 19 2005 PORT-MANSFIELD-TX 26.59N 97.29W BAFFIN-BAY-TX 27.29N 97.38W $$ ATTN...WFO...BRO... ** WTNT45 KNHC 191500 *** TCDAT5 HURRICANE EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER 35 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT TUE JUL 19 2005 DATA FROM THE NWS BROWNSVILLE DOPPLER RADAR...SATELLITE IMAGES...AND REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT EMILY HAS CONTINUED TO GET BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING. WHILE THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS FALLEN AT A RATE OF ABOUT 1 MB PER HOUR THE PAST 12 HOURS...THIS HAS NOT EQUATED TO AN INCREASE IN FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS...YET. MAXIMUM 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 92 KT WERE OBSERVED IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT ON THE OUTBOUND LEG AT ABOUT 1445Z. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/12. THERE HAS BEEN CONSIDERABLE WOBBLE ABOUT THIS MEAN MOTION...WITH A RECENT WOBBLE TO THE WEST. HOWEVER...THIS TYPE OF MOTION IS NOT UNUSUAL FOR HURRICANES THAT ARE UNDERGOING RE-ORGANIZATION OF THE INNER-CORE WIND FIELD. UPPER AIR DATA AT 19/12Z INDICATE THAT THE DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT LIES ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. GULF COAST WESTWARD TO SOUTHEASTERN AND WESTERN TEXAS HAS CHANGED LITTLE THE PAST 24 HOURS. THIS WOULD SUGGEST A GENERAL 290-295 DEGREE MOTION IS PROBABLE FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR...WITH A GRADUAL BEND TOWARD THE WEST AFTER THAT. THIS MOTION IS SUPPORTED BY THE MAJORITY OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ORECAST AND THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH EMILY BECOMING A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL...ESPEICALLY SINCE THE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION HAS IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY AND THE EYE HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED. OBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITIES THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS ARE ACTUALLY T6.0/115 KT AND HIGHER...BUT RECON DATA INDICATE THE INTENSITY IS NOT THAT HIGH. HOWEVER...WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND 29.5C SSTS AHEAD OF EMILY...ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING SEEMS TO BE IN ORDER. IF EMILY FOLLOWS THE FORECAST TRACK...HURRICANE CONDITIONS WOULD STAY SOUTH OF THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT COULD BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS TO FAR SOUTH TEXAS. EVEN IF EMILY BENDS TO THE WEST AS FORECAST...AN NHC EXPERIMENTAL PRODUCT SHOWS THERE IS AT LEAST AN 80 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS IN THE BROWNSVILLE AREA. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 19/1500Z 23.9N 94.5W 80 KT 12HR VT 20/0000Z 24.4N 96.0W 90 KT 24HR VT 20/1200Z 24.6N 98.0W 100 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 21/0000Z 24.6N 100.0W 30 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND 48HR VT 21/1200Z 24.6N 102.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW INLAND 72HR VT 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED INLAND $$ ** WTUS84 KBRO 191505 *** HLSBRO TXZ248>257-191700- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX 1004 AM CDT TUE JUL 19 2005 ...HURRICANE EMILY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO... ...A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER TEXAS COAST FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO BROWNSVILLE... ...A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE TEXAS GULF COAST FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD... ...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE TEXAS GULF COAST FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD... ...INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ZAPATA... BROOKS...JIM HOGG...HIDALGO AND STARR COUNTIES IN DEEP SOUTH TEXAS... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE LOWER TEXAS COASTLINE WHICH INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES: ZAPATA...STARR...JIM HOGG...BROOKS...HIDALGO... CAMERON...WILLACY AND KENEDY. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... AT 7 AM CDT...EMERGENCY OFFICIALS DETERMINED RECREATIONAL VEHICLES SHOULD HAVE COMPLETED EVACUATION FROM CAMERON COUNTY BEACH AREAS. NO OTHER EVACUATION RECOMMENDATIONS HAVE BEEN MADE FOR CAMERON...WILLACY...AND KENEDY COUNTIES. THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF SOUTH PADRE ISLAND...PORT ISABEL...AND PORT MANSFIELD. COUNTY AND CITY OFFICIALS WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 10 AM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.5 WEST OR ABOUT 210 MILES... EAST OF LA PESCA MEXICO AND ABOUT 235 MILES...SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 972 MILLIBARS. EMILY IS MOVING WEST NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH AND A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GIVEN THIS TRACK...EMILY IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AROUND 5 AM CDT WEDNESDAY MORNING APPROXIMATELY 95 MILES SOUTH OF BROWNSVILLE...OR ABOUT 50 MILES NORTH OF LA PESCA MEXICO. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS SHOULD FOLLOW THE ADVICE OF LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AND OTHER GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... TIDES ARE PREDICTED TO RUN 1.5 TO 2 FEET ABOVE MEAN LOWER LOW WATER AROUND 6 AM CDT WEDNESDAY MORNING. GIVEN THE CURRENT TRACK OF EMILY...STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO BE 5 TO 7 FEET ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. THE COMBINATION OF HIGH TIDE...STORM SURGE...AND VERY ROUGH SURF ON WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL PRODUCE COASTAL FLOODING ALONG SOUTH AND EAST FACING SHORES OF SOUTH PADRE ISLAND. ...WIND IMPACTS... AT 10 AM CDT...MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WITH HURRICANE EMILY ARE NEAR 90 MPH. EMILY IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TO A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE LATER TODAY AS IT MOVES WEST NORTHWEST ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT. SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL AREAS WITH WIND GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF PORT MANSFIELD THIS EVENING AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ...OTHER IMPACTS... THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL BE HIGH TODAY AS EMILY APPROACHES. WAVES WILL INCREASE TO 12 TO 15 FEET OFFSHORE TODAY WITH WAVES UP TO 18 FEET POSSIBLE TONIGHT. WAVES WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE ON WEDNESDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS WITH HURRICANE EMILY. ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 12 TO 15 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. ALL RESIDENTS SHOULD BE AWARE OF THE DANGER POSED BY FLOODING RAINS. NEVER DRIVE INTO WATER OF UNKNOWN DEPTH. REMEMBER...TURN AROUND DON'T DROWN. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 1200 PM CDT. $$ MARTIN/CASTILLO ** WTPQ20 BABJ 191500 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS HAITANG 0505 (0505) INITIAL TIME 191500 UTC 00HR 26.4N 119.1E 985HPA 25M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 50KM P12HR NW 15KM/H= ** WTCA45 TJSJ 191534 *** TCPSP5 BOLETIN HURACAN EMILY ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 35 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 10 AM CDT MARTES 19 DE JULIO DE 2005 ...EMILY TORNANDOSE MEJOR ORGANIZADA A MEDIDA QUE SE MUEVE HACIA EL NORESTE DE MEXICO Y LEJOS AL SUR DE TEXAS... ...SE ESPERA QUE EMILY SE CONVIERTA EN UN HURACAN DE CATEGORIA DOS MAS TARDE HOY... UN AVISO DE HURACAN ESTA EN EFECTO PARA LA COSTA BAJA DE TEXAS DESDE PORT MANSFIELD HACIA EL SUR HASTA LA FRONTERA DE TEXAS Y MEXICO. UN AVISO DE HURACAN ESTA EN EFECTO PARA EL NORESTE DE MEXICO DESDE EL SUR DE LA FRONTERA DE TEXAS Y MEXICO HASTA LA CRUZ Y UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA EN EFECTO DESDE EL SUR DE LA CRUZ HASTA CABO ROJO. UN AVISO DE HURACAN O DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE HURACAN O TORMENTA TROPICAL...RESPECTIVAMENTE...SE ESPERAN DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LAS PREPARACIONES PARA PROTEGER VIDA Y PROPIEDAD DEBEN DE SER COMPLETADAS. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL Y UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN CONTINUAN EN EFECTO DESDE EL NORTE DE PORT MANSFIELD HASTA LA BAHIA DE BAFFIN TEXAS. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE HURACAN SON POSIBLES DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA EN SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE TIERRA...FAVOR DE MANTENERSE ATENTOS A LA OFICINA DE METEOROLOGIA LOCAL. A LAS 10 AM CDT...1500Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN EMILY ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 23.9 NORTE...LONGITUD 94.5 OESTE O COMO A 210 MILLAS... 335 KM... AL ESTE DE LA PESCA MEXICO Y COMO A 235 MILLAS...375 KM...AL SURESTE DE BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. EMILY SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 14 MPH... 22 KM/HR. SE ESPERA UN GIRO GRADUAL HACIA EL OESTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. ESTE MOVIMIENTO DEBE TRAER EL CENTRO DE EMILY CERCA DE LA COSTA NORESTE DE MEXICO PARA EL MIERCOLES EN LA MANANA. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 90 MPH...150 KM/HR... CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. EMILY ES UN HURACAN CATEGORIA UNO EN LA ESCALA DE HURACANES SAFFIR-SIMPSON. SIN EMBRAGO...EMILY PODRIA CONVERTIRSE EN HURACAN DE CAYTEGORIA DOS MAS TARDE HOY...Y EN UN HURACAN MAYOR DE CATEGORIA TRES ANTES DE ENTRAR A TIERRA EL MIERCOLES EN LA MANANA. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 40 MILLAS... 65 KM...DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 145 MILLAS...230 KM. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL ESTIMADA ES DE 972 MB...28.70 PULGADAS. SE PUEDEN ESPERAR INUNDACIONES COSTERAS POR MAREJADAS CICLONICAS DE 6 A 9 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA...CON NIVELES MAYORES EN LAS BAHIAS...ACOMPANADAS POR GRANDES Y PELIGROSAS OLAS ROMPIENTES...CERCA Y AL NORTE DE DONDE EL CENTRO ENTRE A TIERRA. SON POSIBLES ACUMULACIONES DE LLUVIA DE 5 A 10 PULGADAS SOBRE LA PARTE BAJA DEL VALLE DE RIO GRANDE AL SUR DE TEXAS Y EN EL NORESTE DE MEXICO...CON POSIBLES CANTIDADES MAXIMAS AISLADAS HASTA 15 PULGADAS. SON POSIBLES TORNADOS AISLADOS BIEN AL SUR DE TEXAS HOY HASTA EL MIERCOLES. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LA 10 AM CDT...23.9 NORTE... 94.5 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 14 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 90 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA... 972 MILIBARAS. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES AL MEDIODIA CDT Y LAS 2 PM CDT SEGUIDA POR LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 4 PM CDT. PRONOSTICADOR STEWART $$ ** WTPN31 PHNC 191600 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 05E (EUGENE) WARNING NR 005 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 191200Z --- NEAR 18.6N 107.7W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 13 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 18.6N 107.7W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 200000Z --- 20.3N 109.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 201200Z --- 21.5N 111.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 210000Z --- 22.2N 112.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 211200Z --- 22.6N 114.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 221200Z --- 23.0N 116.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 231200Z --- 23.0N 119.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191200Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 192200Z, 200400Z, 201000Z AND 201600Z. ** WTPN31 PHNC 191600 RRB *** MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 210000Z --- 22.2N 112.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 211200Z --- 22.6N 114.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 221200Z --- 23.0N 116.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 231200Z --- 23.0N 119.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191200Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 192200Z, 200400Z, 201000Z AND 201600Z. ** WTPN31 PHNC 191600 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 05E (EUGENE) WARNING NR 005 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 191200Z --- NEAR 18.6N 107.7W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 13 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 18.6N 107.7W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 200000Z --- 20.3N 109.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 201200Z --- 21.5N 111.0W ** WTPN31 PHNC 191600 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 05E (EUGENE) WARNING NR 005 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 191200Z --- NEAR 18.6N 107.7W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 13 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 18.6N 107.7W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 200000Z --- 20.3N 109.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 201200Z --- 21.5N 111.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 210000Z --- 22.2N 112.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 211200Z --- 22.6N 114.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 221200Z --- 23.0N 116.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 231200Z --- 23.0N 119.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191200Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 192200Z, 200400Z, 201000Z AND 201600Z. ** WTPQ20 RJTD 191500 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0505 HAITANG (0505) ANALYSIS PSTN 191500UTC 26.7N 119.5E GOOD MOVE NNW SLOWLY PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 30KT 280NM SOUTHEAST 130NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 201500UTC 29.2N 115.4E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 10KT PRES 994HPA MXWD 035KT 45HF 211200UTC 31.0N 113.1E 150NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTJP31 RJTD 191500 *** WARNING 191500. WARNING VALID 201500. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0505 HAITANG (0505) 985 HPA AT 26.7N 119.5E CENTRAL CHINA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST SLOWLY. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 280 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 130 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 201500UTC AT 29.2N 115.4E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 994 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTNT55 KNHC 191547 *** TCEAT5 TROPICAL STORM EMILY TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATE NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM CDT TUE JUL 19 2005 AT 11 AM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.7 WEST OR ABOUT 195 MILES... 310 KM NORTH OF DUE EAST OF LA PESCA MEXICO AND 220 MILES...355 KM...SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT35 KNHC 191653 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN HURRICANE EMILY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 35A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL NOON CDT TUE JUL 19 2005 ...EMILY STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES TOWARD NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND FAR SOUTH TEXAS COASTS... ...EMILY EXPECTED TO BECOME A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE LATER TODAY... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER TEXAS COAST FROM PORT MANSFIELD SOUTHWARD TO THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEASTERN MEXICO FROM SOUTH OF THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER TO LA CRUZ AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF LA CRUZ TO CABO ROJO. A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY TEXAS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT NOON CDT...1700Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.0 NORTH... LONGITUDE 94.8 WEST OR ABOUT 185 MILES... 300 KM... NORTH OF DUE EAST OF LA PESCA MEXICO AND ABOUT 210 MILES... 340 KM...SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. THIS MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TODAY...WITH A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST EXPECTED TONIGHT. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF EMILY NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF MEXICO BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 95 MPH...155 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EMILY IS CURRENTLY A STRONG CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND EMILY IS COULD BECOME A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE LATER TODAY...AND A MAJOR CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL WEDNESDAY MORNING. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES... 65 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 145 MILES...230 KM. DURING PAST HOUR...NOAA BUOY 42002 LOCATED ABOUT 90 MILES NORTH OF EMILY REPORTED A WIND GUST TO 63 MPH. OUTER RAINBANDS BRINGING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND WIND GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD ONSHORE THE COASTS OF FAR SOUTH TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB...28.64 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 6 TO 9 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...WITH HIGHER LEVELS IN BAYS...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF SOUTH TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. REPEATING THE NOON CDT POSITION...24.0 N... 94.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 95 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 970 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 4 PM CDT. FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTSS20 VHHH 191645 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 191500 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM HAITANG (0505) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO SIX POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (26.4 N) ONE ONE NINE POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (119.0 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 50 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 180 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 250 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 201500 UTC TWO EIGHT POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (28.5 N) ONE ONE SIX POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (116.6 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 211500 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTSS20 VHHH 191645 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 191500 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM HAITANG (0505) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO SIX POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (26.4 N) ONE ONE NINE POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (119.0 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 50 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 180 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 250 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 201500 UTC TWO EIGHT POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (28.5 N) ONE ONE SIX POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (116.6 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 211500 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTNT80 EGRR 191707 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 19.07.2005 TROPICAL STORM EUGENE ANALYSED POSITION : 18.6N 107.3W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP052005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 19.07.2005 18.6N 107.3W MODERATE 00UTC 20.07.2005 20.3N 109.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.07.2005 21.8N 111.0W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 21.07.2005 22.9N 112.3W BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH HURRICANE EMILY ANALYSED POSITION : 23.7N 94.1W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 19.07.2005 23.7N 94.1W STRONG 00UTC 20.07.2005 24.0N 95.8W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.07.2005 24.6N 97.5W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 21.07.2005 26.1N 100.4W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 21.07.2005 26.2N 100.8W BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 191707 ** WTCA45 TJSJ 191713 *** TCPSP5 BOLETIN HURACAN EMILY ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 35A NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL MEDIODIA CDT MARTES 19 DE JULIO DE 2005 ...EMILY FORTALECIENDOSE A MEDIDA QUE SE MUEVE HACIA EL NORESTE DE MEXICO Y LEJOS AL SUR DE TEXAS... ...SE ESPERA QUE EMILY SE CONVIERTA EN UN HURACAN DE CATEGORIA DOS MAS TARDE HOY... UN AVISO DE HURACAN ESTA EN EFECTO PARA LA COSTA BAJA DE TEXAS DESDE PORT MANSFIELD HACIA EL SUR HASTA LA FRONTERA DE TEXAS Y MEXICO. UN AVISO DE HURACAN ESTA EN EFECTO PARA EL NORESTE DE MEXICO DESDE EL SUR DE LA FRONTERA DE TEXAS Y MEXICO HASTA LA CRUZ Y UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA EN EFECTO DESDE EL SUR DE LA CRUZ HASTA CABO ROJO. UN AVISO DE HURACAN O DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE HURACAN O TORMENTA TROPICAL...RESPECTIVAMENTE...SE ESPERAN DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS PREPARATIVOS PARA PROTEGER VIDA Y PROPIEDAD DEBEN DE SER COMPLETADAS. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL Y UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN CONTINUAN EN EFECTO DESDE EL NORTE DE PORT MANSFIELD HASTA LA BAHIA DE BAFFIN TEXAS. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE HURACAN SON POSIBLES DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA EN SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE TIERRA...FAVOR DE MANTENERSE ATENTOS A LA OFICINA DE METEOROLOGIA LOCAL. AL MEDIODIA CDT...1700Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN EMILY ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 24.0 NORTE...LONGITUD 94.8 OESTE O COMO A 185 MILLAS... 300 KM... AL NORTE DEL ESTE DE LA PESCA MEXICO Y COMO A 210 MILLAS... 340 KM...AL SURESTE DE BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. EMILY SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 14 MPH... 22 KM/HR. SE PRONOSTICA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO CONTINUARA HOY...CON UN GIRO GRADUAL HACIA EL OESTE ESPERANDOSE ESTA NOCHE. ESTE MOVIMIENTO DEBE TRAER EL CENTRO DE EMILY CERCA DE LA COSTA NORESTE DE MEXICO PARA EL MIERCOLES EN LA MANANA. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 95 MPH...155 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. ACTUALMENTE EMILY ES UN HURACAN DE CATEGORIA UNO EN LA ESCALA DE HURACANES SAFFIR-SIMPSON. SE ESPERA FORTALECIMIENTO ADICIONAL DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS...Y EMILY PODRIA CONVERTIRSE EN HURACAN DE CATEGORIA DOS MAS TARDE HOY...Y EN UN HURACAN MAYOR DE CATEGORIA TRES ANTES DE ENTRAR A TIERRA EL MIERCOLES EN LA MANANA. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 40 MILLAS... 65 KM...DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 145 MILLAS...230 KM. DURANTE LA PASADA HORA...LA BOYA DE NOAA 42002 LOCALIZADA A UNAS 90 MILLAS AL NORTE DE EMILY REPORTO UNA RAFAGA DE VIENTO DE 63 MPH. LAS BANDAS EXTERIORES DE LLUVIA TRAYENDO LLUVIA LOCALMENTE FUERTE Y RAFAGAS DE VIENTO CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTENDERAN GRADUALMENTE SOBRE TIERRA EN LAS COSTAS MAS AL SUR DE TEXAS Y SOBRE EL NORESTE DE MEXICO MAS TARDE ESTA TARDE. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL ESTIMADA ES DE 970 MB...28.64 PULGADAS. SE PUEDEN ESPERAR INUNDACIONES COSTERAS POR MAREJADAS CICLONICAS DE 6 A 9 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA...CON NIVELES MAYORES EN LAS BAHIAS...ACOMPANADAS POR GRANDES Y PELIGROSAS OLAS ROMPIENTES...CERCA Y AL NORTE DE DONDE EL CENTRO ENTRE A TIERRA. SON POSIBLES ACUMULACIONES DE LLUVIA DE 5 A 10 PULGADAS SOBRE LA PARTE BAJA DEL VALLE DE RIO GRANDE AL SUR DE TEXAS Y EN EL NORESTE DE MEXICO...CON POSIBLES CANTIDADES MAXIMAS AISLADAS HASTA 15 PULGADAS. SON POSIBLES TORNADOS AISLADOS BIEN AL SUR DE TEXAS HOY HASTA EL MIERCOLES. REPITIENDO LA POSICION AL MEDIODIA CDT...24.0 NORTE... 94.8 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 14 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 95 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA... 970 MILIBARAS. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 2 PM CDT SEGUIDA POR LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 4 PM CDT. PRONOSTICADOR STEWART $$ ** WTUS84 KBRO 191715 *** HLSBRO TXZ248>257-191930- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX 1215 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2005 ...HURRICANE EMILY BECOMING STRONGER OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO... ...A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER TEXAS COAST FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO BROWNSVILLE... ...A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE TEXAS GULF COAST FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD... ...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE TEXAS GULF COAST FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD... ...INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ZAPATA... BROOKS...JIM HOGG...HIDALGO AND STARR COUNTIES IN DEEP SOUTH TEXAS... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE LOWER TEXAS COASTLINE WHICH INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES: ZAPATA...STARR...JIM HOGG...BROOKS...HIDALGO... CAMERON...WILLACY AND KENEDY. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... AT NOON CDT...EMERGENCY OFFICIALS DETERMINED RECREATIONAL VEHICLES SHOULD HAVE COMPLETED EVACUATION FROM CAMERON COUNTY BEACH AREAS. NO OTHER EVACUATION RECOMMENDATIONS HAVE BEEN MADE FOR CAMERON...WILLACY...AND KENEDY COUNTIES. THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF SOUTH PADRE ISLAND...PORT ISABEL...AND PORT MANSFIELD. COUNTY AND CITY OFFICIALS WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT NOON CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.8 WEST OR ABOUT 185 MILES... EAST OF LA PESCA MEXICO AND ABOUT 210 MILES...SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 970 MILLIBARS. EMILY IS MOVING WEST NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH AND A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GIVEN THIS TRACK...EMILY IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AROUND 2 AM CDT WEDNESDAY MORNING APPROXIMATELY 95 MILES SOUTH OF BROWNSVILLE...OR ABOUT 50 MILES NORTH OF LA PESCA MEXICO. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS SHOULD FOLLOW THE ADVICE OF LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AND OTHER GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... TIDES ARE PREDICTED TO RUN 1.7 FEET ABOVE MEAN LOWER LOW WATER AT 616 AM CDT WEDNESDAY MORNING. GIVEN THE CURRENT TRACK OF EMILY...STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO BE 5 TO 7 FEET ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. THE COMBINATION OF HIGH TIDE...STORM SURGE...AND VERY ROUGH SURF ON WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL PRODUCE COASTAL FLOODING ALONG SOUTH AND EAST FACING SHORES OF SOUTH PADRE ISLAND. ...WIND IMPACTS... AT NOON CDT...MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WITH HURRICANE EMILY ARE NEAR 95 MPH. EMILY IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TO A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE LATER TODAY OR EARLY TONIGHT AS IT MOVES WEST NORTHWEST ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL AREAS WITH WIND GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF PORT MANSFIELD THIS EVENING AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ...OTHER IMPACTS... THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS HIGH TODAY AS EMILY APPROACHES. WAVES WILL INCREASE TO 12 TO 15 FEET OFFSHORE TODAY WITH WAVES UP TO 18 FEET POSSIBLE TONIGHT. WAVES WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE ON WEDNESDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS WITH HURRICANE EMILY. ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 12 TO 15 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. ALL RESIDENTS SHOULD BE AWARE OF THE DANGER POSED BY FLOODING RAINS. NEVER DRIVE INTO WATER OF UNKNOWN DEPTH. REMEMBER... TURN AROUND DON'T DROWN. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 230 PM CDT. $$ VANSPEYBROECK ** WTPZ35 KNHC 191730 *** TCPEP5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM EUGENE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM PDT TUE JUL 19 2005 ...EUGENE STRENGTHENS AS IT CONTINUES NORTHWESTWARD... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA...SOUTH OF AGUA BLANCA ON THE WEST COAST AND SOUTH OF BUENAVISTA ON THE EAST COAST. THIS MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 11 AM PDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EUGENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.8 NORTH... LONGITUDE 108.9 WEST OR ABOUT 230 MILES... 370 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO. EUGENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...24 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH... 110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EUGENE WILL SOON BE MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS AND SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES ...165 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 989 MB...29.20 INCHES. REPEATING THE 11 AM PDT POSITION...19.8 N...108.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 989 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 PM PDT. FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT55 KNHC 191748 *** TCEAT5 TROPICAL STORM EMILY TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATE NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2005 AT 1 PM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.0 WEST OR ABOUT 175 MILES... 285 KM NORTH OF DUE EAST OF LA PESCA MEXICO AND 195 MILES...315 KM...SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. FORECASTER STEWART $$