** WTPQ20 BABJ 190600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY HAITANG 0505 (0505) INITIAL TIME 190600 UTC 00HR 26.0N 119.9E 970HPA 35M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 100KM P12HR NW 10KM/H= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 190600 CCA *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY HAITANG 0505 (0505) INITIAL TIME 190600 UTC 00HR 26.0N 119.9E 970HPA 35M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 100KM P12HR NW 10KM/H P+24HR 27.6N 118.1E 990HPA 23M/S P+48HR 30.0N 116.1E 995HPA 15M/S= ** WTIN20 DEMS 190630 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE NEW DELHI 19-07-2005 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTIVE CLOUDS OVER PARTS OF SOUTH EAST ARABIAN SEA AND SOUTH BAY OF BENGAL AAA(.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 30 DEG. NORTH OVER INDIAN REGION (.) ** WTJP21 RJTD 190600 *** WARNING 190600. WARNING VALID 200600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0505 HAITANG (0505) 980 HPA AT 25.9N 120.1E TAIWAN STRAIT MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 08 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 60 MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 260 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 191800UTC AT 27.1N 119.0E WITH 60 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 200600UTC AT 28.7N 117.4E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 992 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 210600UTC AT 31.1N 113.7E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 998 HPA. BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 190600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0505 HAITANG (0505) ANALYSIS PSTN 190600UTC 25.9N 120.1E GOOD MOVE NNW 08KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 50KT 70NM EAST 60NM WEST 30KT 300NM NORTHEAST 260NM SOUTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 200600UTC 28.7N 117.4E 80NM 70% MOVE NW 10KT PRES 992HPA MXWD 040KT 48HF 210600UTC 31.1N 113.7E 150NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTPQ30 RJTD 190600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO.18 FOR STS 0505 HAITANG (0505) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 190600 UTC IS GOOD. STS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. STS WILL MOVE NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST STS WILL BE GRADED DOWN TO TS WITHIN 24 HOURS. STS WILL WEAKEN BECAUSE LANDFALL IS EXPECTED WITHIN 12 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 2.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 190700 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY HAITANG 0505 (0505) INITIAL TIME 190700 UTC 00HR 26.1N 119.9E 970HPA 35M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 100KM P12HR NW 10KM/H= ** WTSS20 VHHH 190745 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 190600 UTC, TYPHOON HAITANG (0505) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO FIVE POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (25.8 N) ONE ONE NINE POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (119.9 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 65 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 200 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 300 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 200600 UTC TWO EIGHT POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (28.1 N) ONE ONE SEVEN POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (117.5 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 210600 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTSS20 VHHH 190745 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 190600 UTC, TYPHOON HAITANG (0505) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO FIVE POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (25.8 N) ONE ONE NINE POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (119.9 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 65 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 200 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 300 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 200600 UTC TWO EIGHT POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (28.1 N) ONE ONE SEVEN POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (117.5 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 210600 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTPQ20 BABJ 190800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY HAITANG 0505 (0505) INITIAL TIME 190800 UTC 00HR 26.2N 119.9E 970HPA 35M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 100KM P12HR NW 10KM/H= ** WTNT75 KNHC 190831 *** SPFAT5 HURRICANE EMILY PROBABILITIES NUMBER 34 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 4 AM CDT TUE JUL 19 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 4 AM CDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.5 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 1AM CDT FRI JUL 22 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 24.5N 97.3W 45 X X X 45 CORPUSCHRISTI TX X 3 2 X 5 24.5N 99.6W 15 15 X X 30 BROWNSVILLE TX 24 3 X X 27 24.5N 102.0W X 18 5 X 23 GULF 27N 96W 6 4 X X 10 MMSO 238N 982W 33 X X X 33 GULF 25N 96W 53 X X X 53 MMTM 222N 979W 5 3 2 X 10 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 1AM WED FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 1AM WED TO 1PM WED C FROM 1PM WED TO 1AM THU D FROM 1AM THU TO 1AM FRI E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 1AM FRI X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT35 KNHC 190831 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN HURRICANE EMILY ADVISORY NUMBER 34 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 4 AM CDT TUE JUL 19 2005 ...EMILY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER TEXAS COAST... AT 4 AM CDT...0900 UTC...A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER TEXAS COAST FROM PORT MANSFIELD SOUTHWARD TO THE TEXAS MEXICO BORDER. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEASTERN MEXICO FROM SOUTH OF THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER TO LA CRUZ AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF LA CRUZ TO CABO ROJO. A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY TEXAS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 4 AM CDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.5 WEST OR ABOUT 275 MILES... 440 KM...EAST OF LA PESCA MEXICO AND ABOUT 300 MILES... 485 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF EMILY NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF MEXICO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EMILY IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND EMILY COULD BECOME A MAJOR CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES... 65 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 145 MILES...230 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 7 TO 10 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...WITH HIGHER LEVELS IN BAYS...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF SOUTH TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. REPEATING THE 4 AM CDT POSITION...23.5 N... 93.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 90 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 980 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 7 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 10 AM CDT. FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT25 KNHC 190832 *** TCMAT5 HURRICANE EMILY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 34 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052005 0900Z TUE JUL 19 2005 AT 4 AM CDT...0900 UTC...A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER TEXAS COAST FROM PORT MANSFIELD SOUTHWARD TO THE TEXAS MEXICO BORDER. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEASTERN MEXICO FROM SOUTH OF THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER TO LA CRUZ AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF LA CRUZ TO CABO ROJO. A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY TEXAS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 93.5W AT 19/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB EYE DIAMETER 30 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 35NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 75NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT.......125NE 75SE 50SW 105NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 100SE 120SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 93.5W AT 19/0900Z AT 19/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 92.9W FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 24.1N 95.2W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 30SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT... 75NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT...125NE 75SE 50SW 105NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 24.5N 97.3W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 30SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT... 75NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT...125NE 75SE 50SW 105NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 24.5N 99.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 15SW 15NW. 34 KT...125NE 75SE 25SW 25NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 24.5N 102.0W...INLAND REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.5N 93.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/1500Z FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTPZ25 KNHC 190835 *** TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM EUGENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052005 0900Z TUE JUL 19 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 107.2W AT 19/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 90SE 40SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS..125NE 150SE 150SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 107.2W AT 19/0900Z AT 19/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 106.7W FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 18.9N 108.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 20.2N 110.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 21.0N 111.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 21.6N 112.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 60SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 22.3N 115.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 22.5N 118.5W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 22.5N 121.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.9N 107.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/1500Z FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN $$ ** WTNT45 KNHC 190849 *** TCDAT5 HURRICANE EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER 34 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT TUE JUL 19 2005 REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT EMILY IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. WHILE THE MAXIMUM 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS ARE STILL ABOUT 90 KT...THE WINDS INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT ON THE LAST PASS...AND THE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS DECREASED. SINCE THE PLANE LEFT... SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE BURST OF CONVECTION THAT HAS COVERED THE EYE SEEN EARLIER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 80 KT...AND THIS COULD BE A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE. THE NEXT PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE IN EMILY ABOUT 0930Z. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/13...WITH THE EYE WOBBLING BETWEEN 295-300 DEGREES ACCORDING TO THE AIRCRAFT FIXES. EMILY REMAINS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... WITH LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECASTING THE RIDGE TO BUILD DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HR. RAWINSONDE DATA FROM TEXAS SUGGESTS THE MODELS MAY BE UNDERESTIMATING THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE...AS 20-30 METER HEIGHT RISES WERE NOTED. ON THE OTHER HAND...SOME OF THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS DID NOT INITIALIZE EMILY IN THE RIGHT PLACE. OVERALL...THE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT EMILY SHOULD TURN WESTWARD UNDER THE RIDGE DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HR...WITH THE BIG QUESTION OF WHEN AND HOW SHARP WILL THE TURN BE. SINCE THE STORM IS NOT YET OFF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND THE GUIDANCE HAS CHANGED LITTLE...THE NEW TRACK IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK. HOWEVER...IF THE TURN IS LATER OR MORE GRADUAL THAN FORECAST...EMILY COULD MAKE LANDFALL CLOSER TO THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. WITH THE INCREASING ORGANIZATION AND THE RETURN OF STRONG CONVECTION...CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR EMILY TO STRENGTHEN UNTIL LANDFALL. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR THE STORM TO REACH CATEGORY THREE STATUS BEFORE LANDFALL...A VALUE SOMEWHAT ABOVE THE SHIPS GUIDANCE BUT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE PREVIOUS GFDL RUN. EMILY SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER LANDFALL AND DISSIPATE OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN MEXICO BY 72 HR. IF EMILY FOLLOWS THE FORECAST TRACK...HURRICANE CONDITIONS WOULD STAY SOUTH OF THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT COULD BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS TO TEXAS. THEREFORE... A HURRICANE WARNING IS BEING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER TEXAS COAST AT THIS TIME. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 19/0900Z 23.5N 93.5W 80 KT 12HR VT 19/1800Z 24.1N 95.2W 90 KT 24HR VT 20/0600Z 24.5N 97.3W 100 KT 36HR VT 20/1800Z 24.5N 99.6W 60 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 21/0600Z 24.5N 102.0W 20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ ** WTUS84 KBRO 190850 *** HLSBRO TXZ248>257-191200- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX 400 AM CDT TUE JUL 19 2005 ...HURRICANE EMILY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO... ...A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE TEXAS GULF COAST FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO BROWNSVILLE... ...A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE TEXAS GULF COAST FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD... ...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE TEXAS GULF COAST FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD... ...INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ZAPATA... BROOKS...JIM HOGG...HIDALGO AND STARR COUNTIES IN DEEP SOUTH TEXAS... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE LOWER TEXAS COASTLINE WHICH INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES: ZAPATA...STARR...JIM HOGG...BROOKS...HIDALGO... CAMERON...WILLACY AND KENEDY. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... AT 4 AM CDT...EMERGENCY OFFICIALS DETERMINED RECREATIONAL VEHICLES SHOULD HAVE COMPLETED EVACUATION FROM CAMERON COUNTY BEACH AREAS. NO OTHER EVACUATION RECOMMENDATIONS HAVE BEEN MADE FOR CAMERON...WILLACY...AND KENEDY COUNTIES. THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF SOUTH PADRE ISLAND...PORT ISABEL...AND PORT MANSFIELD. COUNTY AND CITY OFFICIALS WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 4 AM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.5 WEST OR ABOUT 275 MILES... EAST OF LA PESCA MEXICO AND ABOUT 300 MILES...EAST SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. EMILY IS MOVING WEST NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. GIVEN THIS TRACK...EMILY IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AROUND 2 AM CDT WEDNESDAY MORNING APPROXIMATELY 100 MILES SOUTH OF BROWNSVILLE...OR ABOUT 50 MILES NORTH OF LA PESCA MEXICO. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS SHOULD FOLLOW THE ADVICE OF LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AND OTHER GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... TIDES ARE EXPECTED TO RUN 1.5 TO 2 FEET ABOVE MEAN LOWER LOW WATER AROUND 6 AM CDT WEDNESDAY MORNING. GIVEN THE CURRENT TRACK OF EMILY...STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO BE 5 TO 7 FEET ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. THE COMBINATION OF HIGH TIDE...STORM SURGE...AND VERY ROUGH SURF ON WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL PRODUCE COASTAL FLOODING ALONG SOUTH AND EAST FACING SHORES OF SOUTH PADRE ISLAND. ...WIND IMPACTS... AT 4 AM CDT...MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WITH HURRICANE EMILY ARE NEAR 90 MPH. EMILY IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN MORE AS IT MOVES WEST NORTHWEST ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO TODAY. THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT. SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL AREAS WITH WIND GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF PORT MANSFIELD THIS EVENING AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ...OTHER IMPACTS... THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL BE HIGH TODAY AS EMILY APPROACHES. WAVES WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 14 FEET OFFSHORE TODAY WITH WAVES UP TO 18 FEET POSSIBLE TONIGHT. WAVES WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE ON WEDNESDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS WITH HURRICANE EMILY. ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 12 TO 15 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. ALL RESIDENTS SHOULD BE AWARE OF THE DANGER POSED BY FLOODING RAINS. NEVER DRIVE INTO WATER OF UNKNOWN DEPTH. REMEMBER...TURN AROUND DON'T DROWN. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 700 AM CDT. $$ ** WTPZ45 KNHC 190851 *** TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM EUGENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT TUE JUL 19 2005 ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY AND A RECENT AMSU-B OVERPASS DEPICT THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS IMPROVED OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS WITH DEVELOPING BANDS OVER THE NORTH AND SOUTH QUADRANTS AND COLDER TOPS. THE WIND RADII HAS BEEN EXPANDED OVER THE SE AND SW QUADRANTS WHERE THE STRONGER BANDS RESIDE USING THE QUIKSCAT DATA. SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT FROM AFWA AND 45 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 45 KT BASED ON IMPROVED ORGANIZATION AND THE TWO DVORAK 45 KT CLASSIFICATIONS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND IS BASED OFF OF THE SHIPS AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE MODELS...WITH STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THEN WEAKENING AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE GLOBAL MODELS ON THE OTHER HAND INDICATE A SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER WEAKENING TREND WITH DISSIPATION IN 48 TO 72 HOURS...WHICH IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY. INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 320/10...BASED ON SATELLITE ANIMATION...PREVIOUS MICROWAVE PASSES...AND A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS. EUGENE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITHIN THE MID-LEVEL STEERING FLOW OF A RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE SW UNITED STATES. AFTERWARD...A WEAKENING TROPICAL CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL TRADES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THE BAMM AND IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BUT SLIGHTLY FASTER. FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 19/0900Z 17.9N 107.2W 45 KT 12HR VT 19/1800Z 18.9N 108.3W 50 KT 24HR VT 20/0600Z 20.2N 110.0W 55 KT 36HR VT 20/1800Z 21.0N 111.4W 50 KT 48HR VT 21/0600Z 21.6N 112.8W 45 KT 72HR VT 22/0600Z 22.3N 115.5W 30 KT 96HR VT 23/0600Z 22.5N 118.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 120HR VT 24/0600Z 22.5N 121.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ ** WTPN31 PGTW 190900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 05W (HAITANG) WARNING NR 032 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 190600Z --- NEAR 25.6N 120.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 345 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 25.6N 120.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 191800Z --- 26.7N 119.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z --- 27.8N 118.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 190900Z POSITION NEAR 25.9N 120.0E. TYPHOON (TY) 05W (HAITANG) IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 80 NM WEST- NORTHWEST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN. THE STORM HAS TRACKED NORTH- NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. RECENT MULTI- SPECTRAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAS TRACKED IN A MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST RESULTING IN THE SYSTEM MAKING LAND- FALL FURTHER NORTH. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190600Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 191500Z, 192100Z AND 200300Z.// ** WTPQ20 BABJ 190900 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY HAITANG 0505 (0505) INITIAL TIME 190900 UTC 00HR 26.2N 119.8E 975HPA 33M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 100KM P12HR NW 10KM/H= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 190900 CCA *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY HAITANG 0505 (0505) INITIAL TIME 190900 UTC 00HR 26.2N 119.8E 975HPA 33M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 100KM P12HR NW 10KM/H P+24HR 28.6N 117.6E 990HPA 23M/S= ** WTPH RPLL 190600 *** T T T STORM WARNING 17 (FINAL) AT 0600 19 JULY SEVERE TROPICAL STORM (HAITANG) (0505) WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT TWO FIVE POINT SEVEN NORTH ONE TWO ZERO POINT ZERO EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AT ZERO THREE METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE EIGHT ZERO HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS THREE ZERO METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER TWO FIVE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN TWO ZERO ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 200600 TWO SEVEN POINT ZERO NORTH ONE ONE SEVEN POINT THREE EAST WITH THIS DEVELOPMENT THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING FROM WEATHER MANILA PD ** WTJP31 RJTD 190900 *** WARNING 190900. WARNING VALID 200900. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0505 HAITANG (0505) 980 HPA AT 26.2N 119.8E TAIWAN STRAIT MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 10 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 60 MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 260 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 200900UTC AT 28.9N 116.6E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 992 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 190900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0505 HAITANG (0505) ANALYSIS PSTN 190900UTC 26.2N 119.8E GOOD MOVE NNW 10KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 50KT 70NM EAST 60NM WEST 30KT 300NM NORTHEAST 260NM SOUTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 200900UTC 28.9N 116.6E 80NM 70% MOVE NW 10KT PRES 992HPA MXWD 040KT 45HF 210600UTC 31.1N 113.7E 150NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTPH RPLL 190900 *** GALE WARNING NO. 03 FOR STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTHWEST MONSOON ISSUED AT 5:00PM TODAY, JULY 19, 2005 (VALID UNTIL THE NEXT BULLETIN TO BE ISSUED AT 5AM TOMORROW) A SURGE OF STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHWEST MONSOON AND ENHANCED BY TROPICAL STORM FERIA (HAITANG) (0505) IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN SEABOARD OF LUZON. SEA AREA NORTH AND WEST OF ILOCOS REGION AND THE SEA AREA OF CAGAYAN, BALINTANG AND BASHI CHANNELS WILL HAVE CLOUDY WITH RAINS AND WINDS OF 20 TO 35KNOTS (73 TO 65 KPH). SEA CONDITIONS WILL BE ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH WITH WAVE HEIGHTS OF 2.5 TO 5 METERS THE SEA AREAS OF THE REST OF WESTERN LUZON WILL HAVE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH OCCASIONAL RAINS AND WINDS OF 10 TO 20KNOTS (18 TO 37KPH). SEA CONDITIONS WILL BE MODERATE TO ROUGH. FISHING BOATS AND ALL TYPES OF SMALL SEA VESSELS ON THE WESTERN SEABOARD OF THE ILOCOS REGION, CAGAYAN, BASHI AND BALINTANG CHANNELS ARE ADVISED NOT TO VENTURE OUT INTO THE SEA WHILE ON THE REST, SEA TRAVEL IS RISKY. WATCH FOR THE NEXT UPDATE TO BE ISSUED AT 5AMA TOMORROW. ** WTPN31 PHNC 191000 COR *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 05E (EUGENE) WARNING NR 004A CORRECTED 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 190600Z --- NEAR 17.6N 106.7W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT REPEAT POSIT: 17.6N 106.7W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 191800Z --- 18.9N 108.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z --- 20.2N 110.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z --- 21.0N 111.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z --- 21.6N 112.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z --- 22.3N 115.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 22.5N 118.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 22.5N 121.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190600Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 191600Z, 192200Z, 200400Z AND 201000Z. FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: CORRECTED WARNING TO REFLECT 50 KT WIND RADII FOR TAU 12 AND TAU 36.// ** WTPQ20 BABJ 191000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY HAITANG 0505 (0505) INITIAL TIME 191000 UTC 00HR 26.3N 119.7E 975HPA 33M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 100KM P12HR NW 10KM/H= ** WTPN31 PHNC 191000 RRC *** MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190600Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 191600Z, 192200Z, 200400Z AND 201000Z. FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: CORRECTED WARNING TO REFLECT 50 KT WIND RADII FOR TAU 12 AND TAU 36.// ** WTPN31 PHNC 191000 RRB *** 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z --- 21.0N 111.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z --- 21.6N 112.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z --- 22.3N 115.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 22.5N 118.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 22.5N 121.5W ** WTPN31 PHNC 191000 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 05E (EUGENE) WARNING NR 004A CORRECTED 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 190600Z --- NEAR 17.6N 106.7W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT REPEAT POSIT: 17.6N 106.7W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 191800Z --- 18.9N 108.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z --- 20.2N 110.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT ** WTPN31 PHNC 191000 COR *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 05E (EUGENE) WARNING NR 004A CORRECTED 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 190600Z --- NEAR 17.6N 106.7W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT REPEAT POSIT: 17.6N 106.7W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 191800Z --- 18.9N 108.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z --- 20.2N 110.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z --- 21.0N 111.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z --- 21.6N 112.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z --- 22.3N 115.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 22.5N 118.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 22.5N 121.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190600Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 191600Z, 192200Z, 200400Z AND 201000Z. FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: CORRECTED WARNING TO REFLECT 50 KT WIND RADII FOR TAU 12 AND TAU 36.// ** WTSS20 VHHH 191045 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 190900 UTC, TYPHOON HAITANG (0505) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO SIX POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (26.2 N) ONE ONE NINE POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (119.8 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 6 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 65 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 180 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 300 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 200900 UTC TWO SEVEN POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (27.9 N) ONE ONE SEVEN POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (117.8 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 210900 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTSS20 VHHH 191045 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 190900 UTC, TYPHOON HAITANG (0505) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO SIX POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (26.2 N) ONE ONE NINE POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (119.8 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 6 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 65 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 180 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 300 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 200900 UTC TWO SEVEN POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (27.9 N) ONE ONE SEVEN POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (117.8 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 210900 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTNT35 KNHC 191140 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN HURRICANE EMILY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 34A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 7 AM CDT TUE JUL 19 2005 ...EMILY CONTINUES TO GET BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER TEXAS COAST FROM PORT MANSFIELD SOUTHWARD TO THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEASTERN MEXICO FROM SOUTH OF THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER TO LA CRUZ AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF LA CRUZ TO CABO ROJO. A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY TEXAS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 7 AM CDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.0 WEST OR ABOUT 235 MILES... 380 KM...EAST OF LA PESCA MEXICO AND ABOUT 265 MILES... 425 KM...SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF EMILY NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF MEXICO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EMILY IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND EMILY IS COULD BECOME A MAJOR CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES... 65 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 145 MILES...230 KM. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 977 MB...28.85 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 7 TO 10 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...WITH HIGHER LEVELS IN BAYS...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF SOUTH TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. REPEATING THE 7 AM CDT POSITION...23.7 N... 94.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 90 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 977 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 10 AM CDT. FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTCA45 TJSJ 191154 *** TCPSP5 BOLETIN HURACAN EMILY ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 34A NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 7 AM CDT MARTES 19 DE JULIO DE 2005 ...EMILY CONTINUA ORGANIZANDOSE MEJOR SOBRE LA PORCION SUROESTE DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO... UN AVISO DE HURACAN ESTA EN EFECTO PARA LA COSTA BAJA DE TEXAS DESDE PORT MANSFIELD AL SUR HASTA LA FRONTERA DE TEXAS Y MEXICO. UN AVISO DE HURACAN ESTA EN EFECTO PARA EL NORESTE DE MEXICO DESDE EL SUR DE LA FRONTERA DE TEXAS Y MEXICO HACIA LA CRUZ Y UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA EN EFECTO DESDE EL SUR DE LA CRUZ HASTA CABO ROJO. UN AVISO O VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE HURACAN O TORMENTA TROPICAL...RESPECTIVAMENTE...SE ESPERAN DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LAS PREPARACIONES PARA PROTEGER VIDA Y PROPIEDAD DEBEN DE SER COMPLETADAS. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL Y UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN ESTA EN EFECTO DESDE LA BAHIA DE BAFFIN TEXAS HACIA EL SUR HASTA EL BORDE ENTRE TEXAS/MEXICO. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE HURACAN SON POSIBLES DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA EN SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE TIERRA...FAVOR DE MANTENERSE ATENTOS A LA OFICINA DE METEOROLOGIA LOCAL. A LAS 7 AM CDT...1200Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN EMILY ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 23.7 NORTE...LONGITUD 94.0 OESTE O COMO A 235 MILLAS... 380 KM... AL ESTE DE LA PESCA MEXICO Y COMO A 265 MILLAS...425 KM...AL SURESTE DE BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. EMILY SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 15 MPH... 24 KM/HR...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO CONTINUE POR LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. EN ESTA TRAYECTORIA...EL CENTRO DE EMILY SE ESTARA ACERCANDO A LA COSTA NORESTE DE MEXICO TEMPRANO EN EL MIERCOLES. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 90 MPH...150 KM/HR... CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. EMILY ES UN HURACAN CATEGORIA UNO EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. SE ESPERA FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS...Y EMILY PODRIA CONVERTIRSE EN HURACAN MAYOR CATEGORIA TRES ANTES DE LLEGAR A TIERRA. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 40 MILLAS... 65 KM...DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 145 MILLAS...230 KM. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL REPORTADA POR UN AVION CAZA HURACANES FUE DE 997 MB...28.85 PULGADAS. INUNDACIONES COSTERAS POR MAREJADAS CICLONICAS DE 7 A 10 PIES POR ENCIMA DEL NIVEL NORMAL DE LAS MAREAS...MAYOR AUN EN LAS BAHIAS... CON GRANDES OLAS ROMPIENTES PELIGROSAS...PUEDEN ESPERARSE CERCA Y AL NORTE DE DONDE EL CENTRO TOCARA TIERRA. SE ESPERAN CANTIDADES ADICIONALES DE LLUVIA DE 5 A 10 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES SOBRE LA PARTE BAJA DEL VALLE DE RIO GRANDE AL SUR DE TEXAS Y EL NORESTE DE MEXICO...CON AREAS AISLADAS DE 15 PULGADAS POSIBLES. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LA 7 AM CDT...23.7 NORTE... 94.0 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA...EL OESTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 15 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 90 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...997 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LA 1 AM CDT. PRONOSTICADOR STEWART $$ ** WTUS84 KBRO 191155 *** HLSBRO TXZ248>257-191500- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX 654 AM CDT TUE JUL 19 2005 ...HURRICANE EMILY CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO... ...A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER TEXAS COAST FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO BROWNSVILLE... ...A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE TEXAS GULF COAST FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD... ...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE TEXAS GULF COAST FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD... ...INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ZAPATA... BROOKS...JIM HOGG...HIDALGO AND STARR COUNTIES IN DEEP SOUTH TEXAS... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE LOWER TEXAS COASTLINE WHICH INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES: ZAPATA...STARR...JIM HOGG...BROOKS...HIDALGO... CAMERON...WILLACY AND KENEDY. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... AT 7 AM CDT...EMERGENCY OFFICIALS DETERMINED RECREATIONAL VEHICLES SHOULD HAVE COMPLETED EVACUATION FROM CAMERON COUNTY BEACH AREAS. NO OTHER EVACUATION RECOMMENDATIONS HAVE BEEN MADE FOR CAMERON...WILLACY...AND KENEDY COUNTIES. THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF SOUTH PADRE ISLAND...PORT ISABEL...AND PORT MANSFIELD. COUNTY AND CITY OFFICIALS WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 7 AM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.0 WEST OR ABOUT 235 MILES... EAST OF LA PESCA MEXICO AND ABOUT 265 MILES...EAST SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 977 MILLIBARS. EMILY IS MOVING WEST NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. GIVEN THIS TRACK...EMILY IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AROUND 2 AM CDT WEDNESDAY MORNING APPROXIMATELY 100 MILES SOUTH OF BROWNSVILLE...OR ABOUT 50 MILES NORTH OF LA PESCA MEXICO. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS SHOULD FOLLOW THE ADVICE OF LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AND OTHER GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... TIDES ARE PREDICTED TO RUN 1.5 TO 2 FEET ABOVE MEAN LOWER LOW WATER AROUND 6 AM CDT WEDNESDAY MORNING. GIVEN THE CURRENT TRACK OF EMILY...STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO BE 5 TO 7 FEET ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. THE COMBINATION OF HIGH TIDE...STORM SURGE...AND VERY ROUGH SURF ON WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL PRODUCE COASTAL FLOODING ALONG SOUTH AND EAST FACING SHORES OF SOUTH PADRE ISLAND. ...WIND IMPACTS... AT 7 AM CDT...MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WITH HURRICANE EMILY ARE NEAR 90 MPH. EMILY IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN MORE AS IT MOVES WEST NORTHWEST ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO TODAY. THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT. SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL AREAS WITH WIND GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF PORT MANSFIELD THIS EVENING AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ...OTHER IMPACTS... THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL BE HIGH TODAY AS EMILY APPROACHES. WAVES WILL INCREASE TO 12 TO 15 FEET OFFSHORE TODAY WITH WAVES UP TO 18 FEET POSSIBLE TONIGHT. WAVES WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE ON WEDNESDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS WITH HURRICANE EMILY. ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 12 TO 15 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. ALL RESIDENTS SHOULD BE AWARE OF THE DANGER POSED BY FLOODING RAINS. NEVER DRIVE INTO WATER OF UNKNOWN DEPTH. REMEMBER...TURN AROUND DON'T DROWN. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 1000 AM CDT. $$ VANSPEYBROECK