** WTNT35 KNHC 190000 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN HURRICANE EMILY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 32A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 7 PM CDT MON JUL 18 2005 ...EMILY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEASTERN MEXICO FROM SOUTH OF THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER TO LA CRUZ AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF LA CRUZ TO CABO ROJO. A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM BAFFIN BAY TEXAS SOUTHWARD TO THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 7 PM CDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.5 WEST OR ABOUT 410 MILES... 660 KM...EAST OF LA PESCA MEXICO AND ABOUT 440 MILES...710 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF EMILY WILL BE NEARING THE COAST OF NORTHEAST MEXICO LATE TUESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EMILY IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME RE-STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED BEFORE LANDFALL. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES... 55 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE RECENTLY REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 982 MB...29.00 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 6 TO 9 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 2 INCHES OR LESS ACROSS YUCATAN. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF SOUTH TEXAS AND NORTHEAST MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. REPEATING THE 7 PM CDT POSITION...22.6 N... 91.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 982 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 10 PM CDT. FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTSR20 WSSS 181800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 190000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY HAITANG 0505 (0505) INITIAL TIME 190000 UTC 00HR 25.1N 120.2E 960HPA 40M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 120KM P12HR WNW 10KM/H= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 190000 CCA *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY HAITANG 0505 (0505) INITIAL TIME 190000 UTC 00HR 25.1N 120.2E 960HPA 40M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 120KM P12HR WNW 10KM/H P+24HR 26.2N 117.8E 985HPA 25M/S P+48HR 28.6N 115.6E 995HPA 15M/S= ** WTUS84 KBRO 190036 *** HLSBRO TXZ248>257-190300- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX 735 PM CDT MON JUL 18 2005 ...HURRICANE EMILY IS MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO... ...A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE TEXAS GULF COAST FROM BAFFIN BAY TO BROWNSVILLE... ...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE TEXAS GULF COAST FROM BAFFIN BAY TO BROWNSVILLE... ...INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ZAPATA... BROOKS...JIM HOGG...HIDALGO AND STARR COUNTIES IN DEEP SOUTH TEXAS... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE LOWER TEXAS COASTLINE WHICH INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES: ZAPATA...STARR...JIM HOGG...BROOKS...HIDALGO... CAMERON...WILLACY AND KENEDY. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... AT 7 PM CDT...EMERGENCY OFFICIALS HAVE DETERMINED RECREATIONAL VEHICLES ARE TO LEAVE CAMERON COUNTY BEACH AREAS BY MIDNIGHT. NO OTHER EVACUATION RECOMMENDATIONS HAVE BEEN MADE FOR CAMERON... WILLACY...AND KENEDY COUNTIES. THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF SOUTH PADRE ISLAND...PORT ISABEL...AND PORT MANSFIELD. COUNTY AND CITY OFFICIALS WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 7 PM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.5 WEST OR ABOUT 410 MILES...EAST SOUTHEAST OF LA PESCA MEXICO AND ABOUT 440 MILES...EAST SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. EMILY IS MOVING WEST NORTHWEST AT 16 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. GIVEN THIS TRACK...EMILY IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AROUND MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT APPROXIMATELY 95 MILES SOUTH OF BROWNSVILLE...OR ABOUT 45 MILES NORTH OF LA PESCA MEXICO. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS SHOULD FOLLOW THE ADVICE OF LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AND OTHER GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... TIDES ARE EXPECTED TO RUN 1.5 TO 2 FEET ABOVE MEAN LOWER LOW WATER AROUND 6 AM CDT WEDNESDAY MORNING. GIVEN THE CURRENT TRACK OF EMILY...STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO BE 4 TO 6 FEET ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. THE COMBINATION OF HIGH TIDE...STORM SURGE...AND WAVE ACTION COULD PRODUCE MINOR FLOODING ALONG SOUTH AND EAST FACING SHORES OF SOUTH PADRE ISLAND. ...WIND IMPACTS... AT 7 PM CDT...MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WITH HURRICANE EMILY ARE NEAR 75 MPH. EMILY IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES WEST NORTHWEST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT. THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL AREAS WITH WIND GUSTS TO NEAR HURRICANE FORCE TUESDAY EVENING AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ...OTHER IMPACTS... THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL BE HIGH ON TUESDAY AS EMILY APPROACHES. WAVES WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 14 FEET OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY WITH WAVES UP TO 18 FEET POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT. WAVES WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE ON WEDNESDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 7 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS WITH HURRICANE EMILY. ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. ALL RESIDENTS SHOULD BE AWARE OF THE DANGER POSED BY FLOODING RAINS. NEVER DRIVE INTO WATER OF UNKNOWN DEPTH. REMEMBER...TURN AROUND DON'T DROWN. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 1000 PM CDT. $$ ** WTCA45 TJSJ 190045 *** TCPSP5 BOLETIN HURACAN EMILY ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 32A NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 7 PM CDT LUNES 18 DE JULIO DE 2005 ...EMILY TORNANDOSE MEJOR ORGANIZADA SOBRE EL SUR DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO... UN AVISO DE HURACAN ESTA EN EFECTO PARA LA COSTA NORESTE DE MEXICO DESDE EL SUR DEL BORDE DE TEXAS/MEXICO HACIA LA CRUZ Y UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA EN EFECTO DESDE EL SUR DE LA CRUZ HASTA CABO ROJO. UN AVISO O VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE HURACAN O TORMENTA TROPICAL...RESPECTIVAMENTE...SE ESPERAN DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LAS PREPARACIONES PARA PROTEJER VIDA Y PROPIEDAD DEBEN DE SER COMPLETADAS. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL Y UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN ESTA EN EFECTO DESDE LA BAHIA DE BAFFIN TEXAS HACIA EL SUR HASTA EL BORDE ENTRE TEXAS/MEXICO. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE HURACAN SON POSIBLES DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA EN SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE TIERRA...FAVOR DE MANTENERSE ATENTOS A LA OFICINA DE METEOROLOGIA LOCAL. A LAS 7 PM CDT...0000Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN EMILY ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 22.6 NORTE...LONGITUD 91.5 OESTE O COMO A 410 MILLAS... 660 KM... AL ESTE DE LA PESCA MEXICO Y COMO A 440 MILLAS...710 KM...AL ESTE SURESTE DE BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. EMILY SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 16 MPH... 28 KM/HR...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO CONTINUE POR LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. EN ESTA TRAYECTORIA...EL CENTRO DE EMILY SE ESTARA ACERCANDO A LA COSTA NORESTE DE MEXICO TARDE EL MARTES. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. EMILY ES UN HURACAN CATEGORIA UNO EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. SE ESPERA QUE SE FORTALEZCA NUEVAMENTE ANTES DE QUE TOQUE TIERRA. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 35 MILLAS... 55 KM...DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 115 MILLAS...185 KM. UN AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO REPORTO RECIENTEMENTE UNA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL DE 982MB...29.00 PULGADAS. INUNDACIONES COSTERAS POR MAREJADAS CICLONICAS DE 6 A 9 PIES POR ENCIMAS DEL NIVEL NORMAL DE LAS MAREAS...CON OLAS ROMPIENTES PELIGROSAS...PUEDEN ESPERARSE CERCA Y AL NORTE DE DONDE EL CENTRO TOCARA TIERRA. SE ESPERAN CANTIDADES ADICIONALES DE LLUVIA DE 2 PULGADAS O MENOS A TRAVES DE YUCATAN. ACUMULACIONES DE LLUVIA DE 5 A 10 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES SOBRE LA PARTE BAJA DEL VALLE DE RIO GRANDE AL SUR DE TEXAS Y EL NORESTE DE MEXICO...CON AREAS AISLADAS DE 15 PULGADAS POSIBLES. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LA 7 PM CDT...22.6 NORTE... 91.5 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA...EL OESTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 16 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 75 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...982 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA A LAS 10 PM CDT. PRONOSTICADOR PASCH $$ ** WTJP21 RJTD 190000 *** WARNING 190000. WARNING VALID 200000. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0505 HAITANG (0505) 980 HPA AT 24.9N 120.5E TAIWAN STRAIT ALMOST STATIONARY. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 60 MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 260 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 191200UTC AT 25.8N 119.6E WITH 60 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 200000UTC AT 26.7N 118.8E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 210000UTC AT 29.5N 116.0E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 996 HPA. BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 190000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0505 HAITANG (0505) ANALYSIS PSTN 190000UTC 24.9N 120.5E GOOD MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 50KT 70NM EAST 60NM WEST 30KT 300NM NORTHEAST 260NM SOUTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 200000UTC 26.7N 118.8E 80NM 70% MOVE NW SLOWLY PRES 992HPA MXWD 045KT 48HF 210000UTC 29.5N 116.0E 150NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTPQ30 RJTD 190000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO.17 FOR STS 0505 HAITANG (0505) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 190000 UTC IS GOOD. STS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. STS WILL MOVE NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST STS WILL BE GRADED DOWN TO TS WITHIN 24 HOURS. STS WILL WEAKEN BECAUSE LANDFALL IS EXPECTED WITHIN 18 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 2.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTKO20 RKSL 190000 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 8 NAME STS 0505 HAITANG ANALYSIS POSITION 190000UTC 25.0N 120.3E MOVEMENT NW 3KT PRES/VMAX 980HPA 54KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 200000UTC 26.7N 118.4E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 994HPA 39KT 48HR POSITION 210000UTC 28.8N 115.9E WITHIN 135NM PRES 998HPA KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPQ20 BABJ 190100 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY HAITANG 0505 (0505) INITIAL TIME 190100 UTC 00HR 25.3N 120.2E 960HPA 40M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 120KM P12HR WNW 10KM/H= ** WTSS20 VHHH 190145 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 190000 UTC, TYPHOON HAITANG (0505) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO FIVE POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (25.0 N) ONE TWO ZERO POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (120.1 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 65 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 200 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 300 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 200000 UTC TWO SEVEN POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (27.2 N) ONE ONE SEVEN POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (117.6 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 210000 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTSS20 VHHH 190145 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 190000 UTC, TYPHOON HAITANG (0505) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO FIVE POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (25.0 N) ONE TWO ZERO POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (120.1 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 65 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 200 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 300 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 200000 UTC TWO SEVEN POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (27.2 N) ONE ONE SEVEN POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (117.6 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 210000 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTPQ20 BABJ 190200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY HAITANG 0505 (0505) INITIAL TIME 190200 UTC 00HR 25.4N 120.2E 960HPA 40M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 120KM P12HR WNW 10KM/H= ** WTPZ45 KNHC 190231 *** TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM EUGENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT MON JUL 18 2005 THE LAST FEW VISIBLE IMAGES AND A RECENT AMSR-E AQUA-1 OVERPASS DEPICT A POORLY ORGANIZED CIRCULATION CENTER...ALTHOUGH THE OUTER BANDING FEATURES OVER THE EAST AND SOUTH QUADRANTS REMAIN INTACT. RECENT ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY REVEALS AN IMPRESSIVE DEEP BURST JUST TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM ALL AGENCIES ARE 35 KT. BECAUSE OF THE RECENT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE CENTER AND THE BAND OF STRONGER WINDS TO THE SOUTH...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 40 KT. THE SHIPS MODEL AND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE AGREE WITH MODEST INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS BENEATH A RELATIVELY WEAK EASTERLY SHEAR ENVIRONMET...BEFORE A WEAKENING TREND COMMENCES OVER COOLER WATER. GLOBAL MODELS ARE SIMILAR WITH DISSIPATION BY DAY 5....OR SOONER. THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS PHILOSOPHY WITH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 55 KT IN 36 HOURS. INITIAL MOTION HAS BEEN ADJUSTED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS ESTIMATED AT 320/10...BASED ON SATELLITE PRESENTATION AND PREVIOUS MICROWAVE PASSES. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE ECMWF...THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE POORLY INITIALIZED THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. SPEED DISPARITIES CONTINUE...ALTHOUGH ALL AGREE WITH A GENERALLY NORTHWEST MOTION OVER COOLER WATER DURING THE NEXT 48 TO 60 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND BASED OFF OF THE ECMWF AND THE BAMM...BUT ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT. FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 19/0300Z 16.8N 105.9W 40 KT 12HR VT 19/1200Z 17.7N 107.0W 45 KT 24HR VT 20/0000Z 18.9N 108.5W 50 KT 36HR VT 20/1200Z 19.8N 109.9W 55 KT 48HR VT 21/0000Z 20.5N 111.3W 45 KT 72HR VT 22/0000Z 21.5N 113.9W 30 KT 96HR VT 23/0000Z 22.0N 117.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 120HR VT 24/0000Z 22.0N 120.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ ** WTPZ25 KNHC 190231 *** TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM EUGENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052005 0300Z TUE JUL 19 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 105.9W AT 19/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 20SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS..125NE 150SE 150SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 105.9W AT 19/0300Z AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 105.5W FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 17.7N 107.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 40SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 18.9N 108.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 19.8N 109.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 20.5N 111.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 60SE 30SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 21.5N 113.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 22.0N 117.0W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 22.0N 120.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.8N 105.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0900Z FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH $$ ** WTNT35 KNHC 190232 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN HURRICANE EMILY ADVISORY NUMBER 33 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 PM CDT MON JUL 18 2005 ...EMILY STRENGTHENS... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEASTERN MEXICO FROM SOUTH OF THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER TO LA CRUZ AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF LA CRUZ TO CABO ROJO. A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM BAFFIN BAY TEXAS SOUTHWARD TO THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.9 NORTH... LONGITUDE 92.1 WEST OR ABOUT 365 MILES... 590 KM... EAST OF LA PESCA MEXICO AND ABOUT 400 MILES... 640 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER WILL BE NEAR THE NORTHEAST COAST OF MEXICO LATE TUESDAY. REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EMILY IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES... 55 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 145 MILES...230 KM. THE HURRICANE HUNTERS REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 983 MB...29.03 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 6 TO 9 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 2 INCHES OR LESS ACROSS YUCATAN. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF SOUTH TEXAS AND NORTHEAST MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. REPEATING THE 10 PM CDT POSITION...22.9 N... 92.1 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 90 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 983 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 4 AM CDT. FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTNT25 KNHC 190233 *** TCMAT5 HURRICANE EMILY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 33 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052005 0300Z TUE JUL 19 2005 A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEASTERN MEXICO FROM SOUTH OF THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER TO LA CRUZ AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF LA CRUZ TO CABO ROJO. A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM BAFFIN BAY TEXAS SOUTHWARD TO THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 92.1W AT 19/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 983 MB EYE DIAMETER 40 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 75NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT.......125NE 75SE 50SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..175NE 100SE 50SW 125NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 92.1W AT 19/0300Z AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 91.5W FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 23.6N 93.9W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 10SW 25NW. 50 KT... 75NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT...125NE 75SE 50SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 24.2N 96.2W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 10SW 25NW. 50 KT... 75NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT...125NE 75SE 50SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 24.5N 98.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 15SW 15NW. 34 KT...125NE 100SE 25SW 25NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 24.5N 101.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.9N 92.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0900Z FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTNT45 KNHC 190234 *** TCDAT5 HURRICANE EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER 33 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT MON JUL 18 2005 DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN TRYING TO WRAP AROUND EMILY'S LARGE RAGGED EYE...AND...ALTHOUGH CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED SOMEWHAT OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE SLOWLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. EVEN THOUGH THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS NOT YET FALLEN...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS FOUND PEAK 700 MB FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 90 KT IN THE NORTHEAST EYE WALL. THIS CORRESPONDS TO A SURFACE WIND OF 80 KT...WHICH IS THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW HAS BECOME RATHER SYMMETRIC AS EMILY SHEDS THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAKENING UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO ITS SOUTHWEST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING...SIMILAR TO THE LATEST GFDL MODEL RUN. EMILY COULD BE APPROACHING MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS PRIOR TO LANDFALL. AFTER LANDFALL...THE CYCLONE WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF MEXICO. INITIAL MOTION HAS SLOWED A LITTLE AND IS ABOUT 300/13. ALL AVAILABLE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE WILL PERSIST TO THE NORTH OF EMILY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS STEERING PATTERN SHOULD MAINTAIN THE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION UNTIL LANDFALL. THE 18Z GFS TRACK HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE NORTH BUT THE OTHER GUIDANCE IS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED...AND IN CLOSE AGREEMENT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...ONLY SLIGHTLY SLOWER. THIS IS VERY CLOSE TO THE LATEST DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS AND TO THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE TRACK. NO CHANGES TO THE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NECESSARY AT THIS TIME. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 19/0300Z 22.9N 92.1W 80 KT 12HR VT 19/1200Z 23.6N 93.9W 85 KT 24HR VT 20/0000Z 24.2N 96.2W 95 KT 36HR VT 20/1200Z 24.5N 98.5W 70 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 21/0000Z 24.5N 101.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ ** WTNT75 KNHC 190234 *** SPFAT5 HURRICANE EMILY PROBABILITIES NUMBER 33 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 PM CDT MON JUL 18 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.1 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 7PM CDT THU JUL 21 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 24.2N 96.2W 44 X X X 44 PORT O CONNOR TX X 1 1 X 2 24.5N 98.5W 11 19 X X 30 CORPUSCHRISTI TX X 3 4 X 7 24.5N 101.0W X 17 6 X 23 BROWNSVILLE TX 5 17 1 X 23 MMSO 238N 982W 21 8 1 X 30 GULF 27N 96W 1 7 1 X 9 MMTM 222N 979W 7 5 2 X 14 GULF 25N 96W 37 X X X 37 MMTX 210N 974W X 1 2 X 3 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 7PM TUE FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 7PM TUE TO 7AM WED C FROM 7AM WED TO 7PM WED D FROM 7PM WED TO 7PM THU E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 7PM THU X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTNT85 KNHC 190237 *** TCVAT5 EMILY WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1000 PM CDT MON JUL 18 2005 .HURRICANE EMILY TXC061-261-489-GMZ130-150-155-170-175-190900- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /E.CON.KNHC.HU.A.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1000 PM CDT MON JUL 18 2005 BROWNSVILLE-TX 26.05N 97.17W BAFFIN-BAY-TX 27.29N 97.38W $$ ATTN...WFO...BRO... ** WTCA45 TJSJ 190243 *** TCPSP5 BOLETIN HURACAN EMILY ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 33 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 10 PM CDT LUNES 18 DE JULIO DE 2005 ...EMILY SE INTENSIFICA... UN AVISO DE HURACAN ESTA EN EFECTO PARA LA COSTA NORESTE DE MEXICO DESDE EL SUR DEL BORDE DE TEXAS/MEXICO HACIA LA CRUZ Y UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA EN EFECTO DESDE EL SUR DE LA CRUZ HASTA CABO ROJO. UN AVISO O VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE HURACAN O TORMENTA TROPICAL...RESPECTIVAMENTE...SE ESPERAN DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LAS PREPARACIONES PARA PROTEGER VIDA Y PROPIEDAD DEBEN DE SER COMPLETADAS. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL Y UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN ESTA EN EFECTO DESDE LA BAHIA DE BAFFIN TEXAS HACIA EL SUR HASTA EL BORDE ENTRE TEXAS/MEXICO. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE HURACAN SON POSIBLES DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA EN SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE TIERRA...FAVOR DE MANTENERSE ATENTOS A LA OFICINA DE METEOROLOGIA LOCAL. A LAS 10 PM CDT...0300Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN EMILY ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 22.9 NORTE...LONGITUD 92.1 OESTE O COMO A 365 MILLAS... 590 KM... AL ESTE DE LA PESCA MEXICO Y COMO A 400 MILLAS...640 KM...AL ESTE SURESTE DE BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. EMILY SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 15 MPH... 28 KM/HR...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO CONTINUE POR LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. EN ESTA TRAYECTORIA...EL CENTRO DE EMILY SE ESTARA ACERCANDO A LA COSTA NORESTE DE MEXICO TARDE EL MARTES. REPORTES DE UN AVION CAZA HURACANES INDICO QUE LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS HAN AUMENTADO A CERCA DE 90 MPH...120 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. EMILY ES UN HURACAN CATEGORIA UNO EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. SE ESPERA FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 35 MILLAS... 55 KM...DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 145 MILLAS...230 KM. UN AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO REPORTO RECIENTEMENTE UNA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL DE 983 MB...29.03 PULGADAS. INUNDACIONES COSTERAS POR MAREJADAS CICLONICAS DE 6 A 9 PIES POR ENCIMAS DEL NIVEL NORMAL DE LAS MAREAS...CON OLAS ROMPIENTES PELIGROSAS...PUEDEN ESPERARSE CERCA Y AL NORTE DE DONDE EL CENTRO TOCARA TIERRA. SE ESPERAN CANTIDADES ADICIONALES DE LLUVIA DE 2 PULGADAS O MENOS A TRAVES DE YUCATAN. ACUMULACIONES DE LLUVIA DE 5 A 10 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES SOBRE LA PARTE BAJA DEL VALLE DE RIO GRANDE AL SUR DE TEXAS Y EL NORESTE DE MEXICO...CON AREAS AISLADAS DE 15 PULGADAS POSIBLES. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LA 10 PM CDT...22.9 NORTE... 92.1 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA...EL OESTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 16 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 75 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...983 MILIBARAS. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LA 1 AM CDT SEGUIDO POR UNA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 4 AM CDT. PRONOSTICADOR PASCH $$ ** WTUS84 KBRO 190256 *** HLSBRO TXZ248>257-190600- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX 1000 PM CDT MON JUL 18 2005 ...HURRICANE EMILY STRENGTHENS AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO... ...A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE TEXAS GULF COAST FROM BAFFIN BAY TO BROWNSVILLE... ...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE TEXAS GULF COAST FROM BAFFIN BAY TO BROWNSVILLE... ...INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ZAPATA... BROOKS...JIM HOGG...HIDALGO AND STARR COUNTIES IN DEEP SOUTH TEXAS... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE LOWER TEXAS COASTLINE WHICH INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES: ZAPATA...STARR...JIM HOGG...BROOKS...HIDALGO... CAMERON...WILLACY AND KENEDY. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... AT 10 PM CDT...EMERGENCY OFFICIALS HAVE DETERMINED RECREATIONAL VEHICLES ARE TO LEAVE CAMERON COUNTY BEACH AREAS BY MIDNIGHT. NO OTHER EVACUATION RECOMMENDATIONS HAVE BEEN MADE FOR CAMERON... WILLACY...AND KENEDY COUNTIES. THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF SOUTH PADRE ISLAND...PORT ISABEL...AND PORT MANSFIELD. COUNTY AND CITY OFFICIALS WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 10 PM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.1 WEST OR ABOUT 365 MILES... EAST OF LA PESCA MEXICO AND ABOUT 400 MILES...EAST SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. EMILY IS MOVING WEST NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. GIVEN THIS TRACK...EMILY IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AROUND MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT APPROXIMATELY 95 MILES SOUTH OF BROWNSVILLE...OR ABOUT 45 MILES NORTH OF LA PESCA MEXICO. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS SHOULD FOLLOW THE ADVICE OF LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AND OTHER GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... TIDES ARE EXPECTED TO RUN 1.5 TO 2 FEET ABOVE MEAN LOWER LOW WATER AROUND 6 AM CDT WEDNESDAY MORNING. GIVEN THE CURRENT TRACK OF EMILY...STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO BE 4 TO 6 FEET ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. THE COMBINATION OF HIGH TIDE...STORM SURGE...AND VERY ROUGH SURF ON WEDNESDAY MORNING COULD PRODUCE COASTAL FLOODING ALONG SOUTH AND EAST FACING SHORES OF SOUTH PADRE ISLAND. ...WIND IMPACTS... AT 10 PM CDT...MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WITH HURRICANE EMILY ARE NEAR 95 MPH. EMILY IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN MORE AS IT MOVES WEST NORTHWEST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT. THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL AREAS WITH WIND GUSTS TO NEAR HURRICANE FORCE TUESDAY EVENING AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ...OTHER IMPACTS... THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL BE HIGH ON TUESDAY AS EMILY APPROACHES. WAVES WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 14 FEET OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY WITH WAVES UP TO 18 FEET POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT. WAVES WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE ON WEDNESDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 7 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS WITH HURRICANE EMILY. ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. ALL RESIDENTS SHOULD BE AWARE OF THE DANGER POSED BY FLOODING RAINS. NEVER DRIVE INTO WATER OF UNKNOWN DEPTH. REMEMBER...TURN AROUND DON'T DROWN. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 100 AM CDT. $$ ** WTPN31 PGTW 190300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 05W (HAITANG) WARNING NR 031 UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 05W 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 190000Z --- NEAR 24.7N 120.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 24.7N 120.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 191200Z --- 25.3N 119.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 031 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 031 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 084 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 096 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 083 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 200000Z --- 26.1N 118.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 024 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 034 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 034 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 024 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 201200Z --- 27.0N 116.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 190300Z POSITION NEAR 24.8N 119.9E. TYPHOON (TY) 05W (HAITANG) IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 80 NM WEST- SOUTHWEST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN. THE STORM HAS TRACKED WEST- NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIG- NIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190000Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 190900Z, 191500Z, 192100Z AND 200300Z.// ** WTPH20 RPMM 190000 *** TTT TYPHOON WARNING 16 AT 0000 19 JULY TYPHOON (HAITANG)(0505)DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON WAS ESTIMATED SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT TWO FOUR POINT EIGHT NORTH ONE TWO ZERO POINT THREE EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AT ZERO TWO METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE EIGHT ZERO HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS THREE ZERO METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER TWO FIVE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN TWO ZER0 ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 200000 TWO SIX POINT THREE NORTH ONE ONE EIGHT POINT THREE ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 190300 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY HAITANG 0505 (0505) INITIAL TIME 190300 UTC 00HR 25.6N 120.1E 960HPA 40M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 120KM P12HR NW 10KM/H= ** WTPN31 PHNC 190400 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ ** WTPN31 PHNC 190400 *** 1. TROPICAL STORM 05E (EUGENE) WARNING NR 003 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 190000Z --- NEAR 16.5N 105.5W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.5N 105.5W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 191200Z --- 17.7N 107.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 200000Z --- 18.9N 108.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 201200Z --- 19.8N 109.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 210000Z --- 20.5N 111.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 220000Z --- 21.5N 113.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 14 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 230000Z --- 22.0N 117.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 00 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z --- 22.0N 120.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 190400Z POSITION NEAR 16.9N 106.0W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190000Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 191000Z, 191600Z, 192200Z AND 200400Z. FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPH RPLL 190000 *** TTT STORM WARNING 16 AT 0000 19 JULY SEVERE TROPICAL STORM (HAITAING) (0505) DOWN- GRADED FROM TYPHOON WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT 24.8N 120.3E FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AT 02MPS ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN 350KMS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS 30MPS NEAR CENTER 250MPS WITHIN 200KMS RADIUS 13MPS WITHIN 350KMS RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 200000 26.3N 118.3E ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND 3-HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD= ** WTPN31 PHNC 190400 RRB *** --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 201200Z --- 19.8N 109.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 210000Z --- 20.5N 111.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 220000Z --- 21.5N 113.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 14 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 230000Z --- 22.0N 117.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 00 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: ** WTPN31 PHNC 190400 RRA *** 1. TROPICAL STORM 05E (EUGENE) WARNING NR 003 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 190000Z --- NEAR 16.5N 105.5W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.5N 105.5W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 191200Z --- 17.7N 107.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 200000Z --- 18.9N 108.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS ** WTPN31 PHNC 190400 RRC *** 240000Z --- 22.0N 120.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 190400Z POSITION NEAR 16.9N 106.0W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190000Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 191000Z, 191600Z, 192200Z AND 200400Z. FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN31 PHNC 190400 *** 1. TROPICAL STORM 05E (EUGENE) WARNING NR 003 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 190000Z --- NEAR 16.5N 105.5W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.5N 105.5W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 191200Z --- 17.7N 107.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 200000Z --- 18.9N 108.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 201200Z --- 19.8N 109.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 210000Z --- 20.5N 111.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 220000Z --- 21.5N 113.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 14 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 230000Z --- 22.0N 117.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 00 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z --- 22.0N 120.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 190400Z POSITION NEAR 16.9N 106.0W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190000Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 191000Z, 191600Z, 192200Z AND 200400Z. FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTJP31 RJTD 190300 *** WARNING 190300. WARNING VALID 200300. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0505 HAITANG (0505) 980 HPA AT 25.3N 120.4E TAIWAN STRAIT MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST SLOWLY. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 60 MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 260 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 191500UTC AT 26.2N 119.6E WITH 60 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 200300UTC AT 27.3N 118.5E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 190300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0505 HAITANG (0505) ANALYSIS PSTN 190300UTC 25.3N 120.4E GOOD MOVE NNW SLOWLY PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 50KT 70NM EAST 60NM WEST 30KT 300NM NORTHEAST 260NM SOUTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 200300UTC 27.3N 118.5E 80NM 70% MOVE NW 07KT PRES 992HPA MXWD 045KT 45HF 210000UTC 29.5N 116.0E 150NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTJP31 RJTD 190300 *** WARNING 190300. WARNING VALID 200300. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0505 HAITANG (0505) 980 HPA AT 25.3N 120.4E TAIWAN STRAIT MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST SLOWLY. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 60 MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 260 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 191500UTC AT 26.2N 119.6E WITH 60 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 200300UTC AT 27.3N 118.5E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 190300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0505 HAITANG (0505) ANALYSIS PSTN 190300UTC 25.3N 120.4E GOOD MOVE NNW SLOWLY PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 50KT 70NM EAST 60NM WEST 30KT 300NM NORTHEAST 260NM SOUTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 200300UTC 27.3N 118.5E 80NM 70% MOVE NW 07KT PRES 992HPA MXWD 045KT 45HF 210000UTC 29.5N 116.0E 150NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTJP31 RJTD 190300 *** WARNING 190300. WARNING VALID 200300. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0505 HAITANG (0505) 980 HPA AT 25.3N 120.4E TAIWAN STRAIT MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST SLOWLY. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 60 MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 260 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 191500UTC AT 26.2N 119.6E WITH 60 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 200300UTC AT 27.3N 118.5E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 190300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0505 HAITANG (0505) ANALYSIS PSTN 190300UTC 25.3N 120.4E GOOD MOVE NNW SLOWLY PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 50KT 70NM EAST 60NM WEST 30KT 300NM NORTHEAST 260NM SOUTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 200300UTC 27.3N 118.5E 80NM 70% MOVE NW 07KT PRES 992HPA MXWD 045KT 45HF 210000UTC 29.5N 116.0E 150NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 190400 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY HAITANG 0505 (0505) INITIAL TIME 190400 UTC 00HR 25.7N 120.0E 960HPA 40M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 120KM P12HR NW 10KM/H= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 190400 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY HAITANG 0505 (0505) INITIAL TIME 190400 UTC 00HR 25.7N 120.0E 960HPA 40M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 120KM P12HR NW 10KM/H= ** WTSS20 VHHH 190445 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 190300 UTC, TYPHOON HAITANG (0505) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO FIVE POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (25.4 N) ONE TWO ZERO POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (120.0 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 65 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 200 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 300 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 200300 UTC TWO SEVEN POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (27.4 N) ONE ONE SEVEN POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (117.4 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 210300 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTSS20 VHHH 190445 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 190300 UTC, TYPHOON HAITANG (0505) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO FIVE POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (25.4 N) ONE TWO ZERO POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (120.0 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 65 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 200 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 300 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 200300 UTC TWO SEVEN POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (27.4 N) ONE ONE SEVEN POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (117.4 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 210300 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTPQ20 BABJ 190500 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY HAITANG 0505 (0505) INITIAL TIME 190500 UTC 00HR 25.8N 120.0E 960HPA 40M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 120KM P12HR NW 10KM/H= ** WTNT35 KNHC 190533 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN HURRICANE EMILY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 33A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1 AM CDT TUE JUL 19 2005 ...EMILY MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANG IN STRENGTH... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEASTERN MEXICO FROM SOUTH OF THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER TO LA CRUZ AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF LA CRUZ TO CABO ROJO. A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM BAFFIN BAY TEXAS SOUTHWARD TO THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 1 AM CDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 92.9 WEST OR ABOUT 320 MILES... 514 KM... EAST OF LA PESCA MEXICO AND ABOUT 340 MILES... 545 KM...SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER WILL BE NEAR THE NORTHEAST COAST OF MEXICO LATE TUESDAY. REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EMILY IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES... 55 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 145 MILES...230 KM. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER IS 984 MB...29.06 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 6 TO 9 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 2 INCHES OR LESS ACROSS YUCATAN. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF SOUTH TEXAS AND NORTHEAST MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. REPEATING THE 1 AM CDT POSITION...23.2 N... 92.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 90 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 984 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 4 AM CDT. FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT35 KNHC 190539 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN HURRICANE EMILY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 33A...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1 AM CDT TUE JUL 19 2005 ...CORRECT ERROR IN HEADLINE... ...EMILY MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEASTERN MEXICO FROM SOUTH OF THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER TO LA CRUZ AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF LA CRUZ TO CABO ROJO. A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM BAFFIN BAY TEXAS SOUTHWARD TO THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 1 AM CDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 92.9 WEST OR ABOUT 320 MILES... 514 KM... EAST OF LA PESCA MEXICO AND ABOUT 340 MILES... 545 KM...SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER WILL BE NEAR THE NORTHEAST COAST OF MEXICO LATE TUESDAY. REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EMILY IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES... 55 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 145 MILES...230 KM. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER IS 984 MB...29.06 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 6 TO 9 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 2 INCHES OR LESS ACROSS YUCATAN. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF SOUTH TEXAS AND NORTHEAST MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. REPEATING THE 1 AM CDT POSITION...23.2 N... 92.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 90 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 984 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 4 AM CDT. FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT80 EGRR 190540 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 19.07.2005 TROPICAL STORM EUGENE ANALYSED POSITION : 16.1N 105.6W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP052005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 19.07.2005 16.1N 105.6W WEAK 12UTC 19.07.2005 17.7N 106.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 20.07.2005 19.5N 108.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 20.07.2005 21.0N 109.5W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 21.07.2005 22.2N 110.5W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 21.07.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM ANALYSED IN THE MODEL AT POSITION : 11.2N 123.4W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 19.07.2005 11.2N 123.4W WEAK 12UTC 19.07.2005 11.6N 123.1W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 20.07.2005 12.0N 122.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.07.2005 12.7N 121.9W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 21.07.2005 13.7N 121.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 21.07.2005 15.0N 120.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 22.07.2005 15.0N 120.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 22.07.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH HURRICANE EMILY ANALYSED POSITION : 22.9N 91.5W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 19.07.2005 22.9N 91.5W STRONG 12UTC 19.07.2005 23.7N 94.0W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 20.07.2005 24.4N 95.6W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.07.2005 24.8N 97.1W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 21.07.2005 24.2N 99.9W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 21.07.2005 26.2N 102.4W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 22.07.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 190540 ** WTNT35 KNHC 190539 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN HURRICANE EMILY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 33A...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1 AM CDT TUE JUL 19 2005 ...CORRECT ERROR IN HEADLINE... ...EMILY MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEASTERN MEXICO FROM SOUTH OF THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER TO LA CRUZ AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF LA CRUZ TO CABO ROJO. A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM BAFFIN BAY TEXAS SOUTHWARD TO THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 1 AM CDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 92.9 WEST OR ABOUT 320 MILES... 514 KM... EAST OF LA PESCA MEXICO AND ABOUT 340 MILES... 545 KM...SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER WILL BE NEAR THE NORTHEAST COAST OF MEXICO LATE TUESDAY. REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EMILY IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES... 55 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 145 MILES...230 KM. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER IS 984 MB...29.06 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 6 TO 9 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 2 INCHES OR LESS ACROSS YUCATAN. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF SOUTH TEXAS AND NORTHEAST MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. REPEATING THE 1 AM CDT POSITION...23.2 N... 92.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 90 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 984 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 4 AM CDT. FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTUS84 KBRO 190556 *** HLSBRO TXZ248>257-190900- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX 100 AM CDT TUE JUL 19 2005 ...HURRICANE EMILY MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO... ...A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE TEXAS GULF COAST FROM BAFFIN BAY TO BROWNSVILLE... ...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE TEXAS GULF COAST FROM BAFFIN BAY TO BROWNSVILLE... ...INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ZAPATA... BROOKS...JIM HOGG...HIDALGO AND STARR COUNTIES IN DEEP SOUTH TEXAS... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE LOWER TEXAS COASTLINE WHICH INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES: ZAPATA...STARR...JIM HOGG...BROOKS...HIDALGO... CAMERON...WILLACY AND KENEDY. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... AT 1 AM CDT...EMERGENCY OFFICIALS DETERMINED RECREATIONAL VEHICLES SHOULD HAVE EVACUATED CAMERON COUNTY BEACH AREAS BY THIS TIME. NO OTHER EVACUATION RECOMMENDATIONS HAVE BEEN MADE FOR CAMERON...WILLACY...AND KENEDY COUNTIES. THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF SOUTH PADRE ISLAND...PORT ISABEL...AND PORT MANSFIELD. COUNTY AND CITY OFFICIALS WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 1 AM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.2 WEST OR ABOUT 320 MILES... EAST OF LA PESCA MEXICO AND ABOUT 340 MILES...EAST SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. EMILY IS MOVING WEST NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. GIVEN THIS TRACK...EMILY IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AROUND MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT APPROXIMATELY 100 MILES SOUTH OF BROWNSVILLE...OR ABOUT 45 MILES NORTH OF LA PESCA MEXICO. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS SHOULD FOLLOW THE ADVICE OF LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AND OTHER GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... TIDES ARE EXPECTED TO RUN 1.5 TO 2 FEET ABOVE MEAN LOWER LOW WATER AROUND 6 AM CDT WEDNESDAY MORNING. GIVEN THE CURRENT TRACK OF EMILY...STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO BE 4 TO 6 FEET ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. THE COMBINATION OF HIGH TIDE...STORM SURGE...AND VERY ROUGH SURF ON WEDNESDAY MORNING COULD PRODUCE COASTAL FLOODING ALONG SOUTH AND EAST FACING SHORES OF SOUTH PADRE ISLAND. ...WIND IMPACTS... AT 1 AM CDT...MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WITH HURRICANE EMILY ARE NEAR 95 MPH. EMILY IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN MORE AS IT MOVES WEST NORTHWEST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT. THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL AREAS WITH WIND GUSTS TO NEAR HURRICANE FORCE TUESDAY EVENING AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ...OTHER IMPACTS... THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL BE HIGH ON TUESDAY AS EMILY APPROACHES. WAVES WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 14 FEET OFFSHORE TODAY WITH WAVES UP TO 18 FEET POSSIBLE TONIGHT. WAVES WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE ON WEDNESDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 7 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS WITH HURRICANE EMILY. ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. ALL RESIDENTS SHOULD BE AWARE OF THE DANGER POSED BY FLOODING RAINS. NEVER DRIVE INTO WATER OF UNKNOWN DEPTH. REMEMBER... TURN AROUND DON'T DROWN. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 400 AM CDT. $$