** WTSR20 WSSS 180600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 181200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY HAITANG 0505 (0505) INITIAL TIME 181200 UTC 00HR 24.7N 121.2E 955HPA 40M/S 30KTS 450KM 50KTS 150KM P12HR WNW 15KM/H= ** WTCA45 TJSJ 181221 *** TCPSP5 BOLETIN HURACAN EMILY ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 26 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 8 AM AST LUNES 18 DE JULIO DE 2005 ...EMILY SOBRE YUCATAN...SE ESPERA QUE SE MUEVA SOBRE EL GOLFO DE MEXICO MAS TARDE EN EL DIA DE HOY... PERMANECE EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN DESDE CABO ROJO MEXICO HACIA EL NORTE HASTA BAFFIN BAY TEXAS. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE SON POSIBLES CONDICIONES HURACANADAS DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. PERMANECE EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN PARA LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN DESDE CHETUMAL AL NORTE HASTA CABO CATOCHE...LUEGO HACIA EL OESTE Y SUR HASTA CAMPECHE...INCLUYENDO COZUMEL Y LAS ISLAS MUJERES. TODAS LAS PREPARACIONES PARA PROTEGER LA VIDA Y PROPIEDAD DEBEN SER COMPLETADAS DE INMEDIATO. A LAS 8 AM...1200 UTC...EL AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LA COSTA DE BELIZE DESDE CIUDAD BELIZE HACIA EL NORTE HASTA LA FRONTERA DE BELIZE Y MEXICO HA SIDO DESCONTINUADO. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA EN SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE TIERRA...FAVOR DE MANTENERSE ATENTOS A LA OFICINA DE METEOROLOGIA LOCAL. LAS IMAGENES DEL SATELITE Y DATOS DEL RADAR DE CANCUN INDICAN QUE A LAS 8 AM EDT...1200Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN EMILY ESTABA LOCALIZADO SOBRE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN CERCA DE LA LATITUD 21.2 NORTE...LONGITUD 88.9 OESTE JUSTO AL NOROESTE DE TIZIMIN O COMO A 50 MILLAS... 80 KM... AL ESTE NORESTE DE MERIDA MEXICO. EMILY SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 17 MPH... 28 KM/HR...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO CONTINUE POR LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. EN ESTE MOVIMIENTO EL CENTRO DE EMILY ALCANZARA EL GOLFO DE MEXICO MAS TARDE ESTA MANANA. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. EMILY ES UN HURACAN CATEGORIA DOS EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. SE ESPERA QUE SE RE-FORTALEZCA CUANDO EMILY SE MUEVA NUEVAMENTE SOBRE AGUA. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 60 MILLAS... 95 KM...DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 150 MILLAS...240 KM. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL SE ESTIMA EN 975 MB...28.79 PULGADAS. INUNDACIONES EN LA COSTA EN EL LADO DEL CARIBE DE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN DISMINUIRAN DURANTE EL DIA DE HOY. CANTIDADES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 5 A 8 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES SOBRE LA PENINSULA DEL YUCATAN CON CANTIDADES MAXIMAS AISLADAS DE HASTA DE 12 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 8 AM AST...21.2 NORTE... 88.9 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA...EL OESTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 17 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 100 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...975 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA A LAS 11 AM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR AVILA $$ ** WTPQ20 BABJ 181200 CCA *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY HAITANG 0505 (0505) INITIAL TIME 181200 UTC 00HR 24.7N 121.2E 955HPA 40M/S 30KTS 450KM 50KTS 150KM P12HR WNW 15KM/H P+24HR 26.0N 118.4E 975HPA 33M/S P+48HR 27.0N 116.5E 995HPA 15M/S= ** WTUS84 KBRO 181245 *** HLSBRO TXZ251-254>257-181700- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX 745 AM CDT MON JUL 18 2005 ...HURRICANE EMILY MOVING THROUGH THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... ...A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE TEXAS GULF COAST FROM BAFFIN BAY TO BROWNSVILLE... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE LOWER TEXAS COASTLINE WHICH INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES: CAMERON...WILLACY AND KENEDY. ...WATCH AND WARNING INFORMATION... AS OF 500 AM CDT...EMERGENCY OFFICIALS HAVE MADE NO EVACUATION RECOMMENDATION FOR CAMERON...WILLACY...AND KENEDY COUNTIES. THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF SOUTH PADRE ISLAND...PORT ISABEL...AND PORT MANSFIELD. COUNTY AND CITY OFFICIALS WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 700 AM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.9 WEST APPROXIMATELY 50 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF MERIDA MEXICO. ...MOVEMENT... EMILY IS MOVING WEST NORTHWEST AT 17 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. GIVEN THIS TRACK...EMILY IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AROUND MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT APPROXIMATELY 100 MILES SOUTH OF BROWNSVILLE...OR 50 MILES NORTH OF LA PESCA MEXICO. ...WINDS... MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WITH HURRICANE EMILY WERE NEAR 100 MPH. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING OF THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED AS EMILY MOVES THROUGH THE YUCATAN THIS MORNING. EMILY IS THEN FORECASTED TO STRENGTHEN SHORTLY AFTER IT MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT. ...STORM SURGE AND TIDES... TIDES ARE EXPECTED TO RUN 1 FOOT ABOVE MEAN LOWER LOW WATER. GIVEN THE CURRENT TRACK OF EMILY...STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO BE 2 TO 4 FEET. ...WINDS IMPACTS... WINDS ARE EXPECTED INCREASE ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE COASTAL WATERS ON TUESDAY. WINDS GUSTS TO NEAR 50 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED OVER COASTAL SECTIONS TUESDAY EVENING. ...RIP CURRENTS AND MARINE CONDITIONS... THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL BE HIGH ON TUESDAY AS EMILY APPROACHES. WAVES WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 14 FEET OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY WITH WAVES UP TO 18 FEET POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT. WAVES WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE ON WEDNESDAY. ...RAINFALL... RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS WITH HURRICANE EMILY. ISOLATED AMOUNTS TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. ALL RESIDENTS SHOULD BE AWARE OF THE DANGER POSED BY FLOODING RAINS. NEVER DRIVE INTO WATER OF UNKNOWN DEPTH. REMEMBER...TURN AROUND DON'T DROWN. THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 1100 AM. $$ AP/MC ** WTJP21 RJTD 181200 *** WARNING 181200. WARNING VALID 191200. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0505 HAITANG (0505) 970 HPA AT 24.6N 121.2E TAIWAN MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 09 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 80 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 70 MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 375 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 300 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 190000UTC AT 25.3N 119.8E WITH 60 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 191200UTC AT 25.8N 119.0E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 201200UTC AT 28.2N 116.7E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 996 HPA. BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 181200 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0505 HAITANG (0505) ANALYSIS PSTN 181200UTC 24.6N 121.2E GOOD MOVE NNW 09KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 50KT 80NM EAST 70NM WEST 30KT 375NM NORTHEAST 300NM SOUTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 191200UTC 25.8N 119.0E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT 48HF 201200UTC 28.2N 116.7E 150NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 181300 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY HAITANG 0505 (0505) INITIAL TIME 181300 UTC 00HR 24.7N 120.9E 955HPA 40M/S 30KTS 450KM 50KTS 150KM P12HR WNW 15KM/H= ** WTUS84 KBRO 181354 CCA *** HLSBRO TXZ251-254>257-181700- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT...CORRECTION FOR FORMAT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX 745 AM CDT MON JUL 18 2005 ...HURRICANE EMILY MOVING THROUGH THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... ...A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE TEXAS GULF COAST FROM BAFFIN BAY TO BROWNSVILLE... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE LOWER TEXAS COASTLINE WHICH INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES: CAMERON...WILLACY AND KENEDY. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... AS OF 500 AM CDT...EMERGENCY OFFICIALS HAVE MADE NO EVACUATION RECOMMENDATION FOR CAMERON...WILLACY...AND KENEDY COUNTIES. THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF SOUTH PADRE ISLAND...PORT ISABEL...AND PORT MANSFIELD. COUNTY AND CITY OFFICIALS WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 700 AM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.9 WEST APPROXIMATELY 50 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF MERIDA MEXICO. EMILY IS MOVING WEST NORTHWEST AT 17 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. GIVEN THIS TRACK...EMILY IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AROUND MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT APPROXIMATELY 100 MILES SOUTH OF BROWNSVILLE...OR 50 MILES NORTH OF LA PESCA MEXICO. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... TIDES ARE EXPECTED TO RUN 1 FOOT ABOVE MEAN LOWER LOW WATER. GIVEN THE CURRENT TRACK OF EMILY...STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO BE 2 TO 4 FEET. ...WINDS IMPACTS... MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WITH HURRICANE EMILY WERE NEAR 100 MPH. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING OF THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED AS EMILY MOVES THROUGH THE YUCATAN THIS MORNING. EMILY IS THEN FORECASTED TO STRENGTHEN SHORTLY AFTER IT MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED INCREASE ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE COASTAL WATERS ON TUESDAY. WINDS GUSTS TO NEAR 50 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED OVER COASTAL SECTIONS TUESDAY EVENING. ...OTHER IMPACTS... THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL BE HIGH ON TUESDAY AS EMILY APPROACHES. WAVES WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 14 FEET OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY WITH WAVES UP TO 18 FEET POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT. WAVES WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE ON WEDNESDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS WITH HURRICANE EMILY. ISOLATED AMOUNTS TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. ALL RESIDENTS SHOULD BE AWARE OF THE DANGER POSED BY FLOODING RAINS. NEVER DRIVE INTO WATER OF UNKNOWN DEPTH. REMEMBER...TURN AROUND DON'T DROWN. THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 1100 AM CDT. $$ SPEECE ** WTPN31 PGTW 181500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 05W (HAITANG) WARNING NR 029 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 181200Z --- NEAR 24.3N 121.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 24.3N 121.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 190000Z --- 24.9N 120.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 191200Z --- 25.6N 119.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 200000Z --- 26.5N 118.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 181500Z POSITION NEAR 24.5N 120.8E. TYPHOON (TY) 05W (HAITANG), LOCATED OVER LAND AND APPROXIMATELY 50 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. MICROWAVE AND RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY REVEALS DEEP CONVECTION HAS BECOME VERY DISORGANIZED. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181200Z IS 38 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 182100Z, 190300Z, 190900Z AND 191500Z.// ** WTPQ20 VHHH 181345 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 181200 UTC, TYPHOON HAITANG (0505) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 955 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO FOUR POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (24.5 N) ONE TWO ONE POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (121.1 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 80 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 200 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 250 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 191200 UTC TWO SIX POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (26.0 N) ONE ONE EIGHT POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (118.4 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 201200 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTUS84 KBRO 181408 CCB *** HLSBRO TXZ251-254>257-181700- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT...CORRECTION FOR FORMAT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX 745 AM CDT MON JUL 18 2005 ...HURRICANE EMILY MOVING THROUGH THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... ...A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE TEXAS GULF COAST FROM BAFFIN BAY TO BROWNSVILLE... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE LOWER TEXAS COASTLINE WHICH INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES: CAMERON...WILLACY AND KENEDY. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... AS OF 500 AM CDT...EMERGENCY OFFICIALS HAVE MADE NO EVACUATION RECOMMENDATION FOR CAMERON...WILLACY...AND KENEDY COUNTIES. THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF SOUTH PADRE ISLAND...PORT ISABEL...AND PORT MANSFIELD. COUNTY AND CITY OFFICIALS WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 700 AM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.9 WEST APPROXIMATELY 50 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF MERIDA MEXICO. EMILY IS MOVING WEST NORTHWEST AT 17 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. GIVEN THIS TRACK...EMILY IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AROUND MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT APPROXIMATELY 100 MILES SOUTH OF BROWNSVILLE...OR 50 MILES NORTH OF LA PESCA MEXICO. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS SHOULD FOLLOW THE ADVICE OF LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AND OTHER GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... TIDES ARE EXPECTED TO RUN 1 FOOT ABOVE MEAN LOWER LOW WATER. GIVEN THE CURRENT TRACK OF EMILY...STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO BE 2 TO 4 FEET. ...WIND IMPACTS... MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WITH HURRICANE EMILY WERE NEAR 100 MPH. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING OF THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED AS EMILY MOVES THROUGH THE YUCATAN THIS MORNING. EMILY IS THEN FORECASTED TO STRENGTHEN SHORTLY AFTER IT MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED INCREASE ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE COASTAL WATERS ON TUESDAY. WINDS GUSTS TO NEAR 50 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED OVER COASTAL SECTIONS TUESDAY EVENING. ...OTHER IMPACTS... THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL BE HIGH ON TUESDAY AS EMILY APPROACHES. WAVES WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 14 FEET OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY WITH WAVES UP TO 18 FEET POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT. WAVES WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE ON WEDNESDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS WITH HURRICANE EMILY. ISOLATED AMOUNTS TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. ALL RESIDENTS SHOULD BE AWARE OF THE DANGER POSED BY FLOODING RAINS. NEVER DRIVE INTO WATER OF UNKNOWN DEPTH. REMEMBER...TURN AROUND DON'T DROWN. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 1100 AM CDT. $$ SPEECE ** WTPQ20 BABJ 181400 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY HAITANG 0505 (0505) INITIAL TIME 181400 UTC 00HR 24.7N 120.6E 955HPA 40M/S 30KTS 450KM 50KTS 150KM P12HR WNW 15KM/H= ** WTNT25 KNHC 181438 *** TCMAT5 HURRICANE EMILY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 31 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052005 1500Z MON JUL 18 2005 A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM CABO ROJO MEXICO NORTHWARD TO BAFFIN BAY TEXAS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. AT 10 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CABO CATOCHE SOUTHWARD HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CABO CATOCHE WESTWARD AND SOUTHWARD TO CAMPECHE. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 89.6W AT 18/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 64 KT....... 50NE 25SE 15SW 30NW. 50 KT.......100NE 40SE 25SW 50NW. 34 KT.......130NE 125SE 50SW 110NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 200SE 0SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 89.6W AT 18/1500Z AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 88.9W FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 22.8N 91.8W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 15SE 10SW 30NW. 50 KT... 90NE 40SE 25SW 60NW. 34 KT...130NE 75SE 50SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 23.9N 94.4W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 25SE 15SW 40NW. 50 KT... 90NE 40SE 25SW 60NW. 34 KT...130NE 75SE 50SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 24.5N 96.8W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. 50 KT...100NE 40SE 40SW 100NW. 34 KT...130NE 75SE 75SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 25.0N 99.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 25NW. 34 KT... 75NE 50SE 50SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 25.5N 104.6W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.8N 89.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT85 KNHC 181439 *** TCVAT5 EMILY WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1000 AM CDT MON JUL 18 2005 .HURRICANE EMILY TXC061-261-489-GMZ130-150-155-170-175-182100- /E.CON.KNHC.HU.A.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1000 AM CDT MON JUL 18 2005 BROWNSVILLE-TX 26.05N 97.17W BAFFIN-BAY-TX 27.29N 97.38W $$ ATTN...WFO...BRO... ** WTNT45 KNHC 181440 *** TCDAT5 HURRICANE EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER 31 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT MON JUL 18 2005 HIGH RESOLUTION VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE CENTER OF EMILY IS BACK OVER WATER. ALTHOUGH DEEP CONVECTION HAS DECREASED DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...THE CLOUD PATTERN IS STILL WELL-ORGANIZED WITH PLENTY OF BANDING FEATURES. INITIAL INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED AT 85 KNOTS BUT THIS IS UNCERTAIN UNTIL A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE REACHES THE AREA LATER TODAY. EMILY IS CURRENTLY OVER RELATIVELY COOLER WATERS...WHICH NORMALLY PREVAILS NEAR THE NORTH COAST OF YUCATAN...BUT LATER TODAY...THE HURRICANE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OVER THE WARMER WATERS OF THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. ALTHOUGH THE UPPER-LOW IS STILL IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...ALL GLOBAL MODELS GET RID OF THE LOW AND DEVELOP A WELL-DEFINED 200 MB HIGH OVER THE CYCLONE. THIS WOULD RESULT IN LOW SHEAR ALONG THE TRACK. THEREFORE...RE-STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED AND EMILY IS FORECAST TO REACH THE COAST OF MEXICO AS A MAJOR HURRICANE. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH SHIPS AND THE GFDL MODELS. EMILY...AS ANTICIPATED...IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST BETWEEN 295 AND 300 DEGREES AT 15 KNOTS...AROUND A DEEP LAYER MEAN RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE ATLANTIC WESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES. A WEAKNESS ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE MAY INDUCE A SMALL NORTHWARD COMPONENT TEMPORARILY. HOWEVER...THE WEAKNESS IS FORECAST TO BE REPLACED BY A RIDGE WHICH EVENTUALLY WILL FORCE EMILY TO MOVE ON A MORE WESTWARD TRACK BEYOND 24 HOURS...WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE WHICH UNANIMOUSLY BRINGS THE CENTER OF EMILY OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. UPPER-AIR DATA FROM CANCUN AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS PROVIDED BY BOTH THE MEXICAN WEATHER SERVICE AND THE MEXICAN NAVY HAVE BEEN VERY USEFUL IN TRACKING AND FORECASTING EMILY. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 18/1500Z 21.8N 89.6W 85 KT 12HR VT 19/0000Z 22.8N 91.8W 90 KT 24HR VT 19/1200Z 23.9N 94.4W 95 KT 36HR VT 20/0000Z 24.5N 96.8W 100 KT 48HR VT 20/1200Z 25.0N 99.2W 50 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 21/1200Z 25.5N 104.6W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ ** WTNT35 KNHC 181440 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN HURRICANE EMILY ADVISORY NUMBER 31 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 AM CDT MON JUL 18 2005 ...EMILY HEADING FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...EXPECTED TO REGAIN STRENGTH.... A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM CABO ROJO MEXICO NORTHWARD TO BAFFIN BAY TEXAS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. AT 10 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CABO CATOCHE SOUTHWARD HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CABO CATOCHE WESTWARD AND SOUTHWARD TO CAMPECHE. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.6 WEST OR ABOUT 540 MILES... 870 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF LA PESCA MEXICO AND ABOUT 575 MILES... 925 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY...WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EMILY IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL. A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WILL CHECK THE INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES... 95 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES...240 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 975 MB...28.79 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING ON THE CARIBBEAN SIDE OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TODAY. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 5 INCHES. REPEATING THE 10 AM CDT POSITION...21.8 N... 89.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 975 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 4 PM CDT. FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT75 KNHC 181440 *** SPFAT5 HURRICANE EMILY PROBABILITIES NUMBER 31 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 AM CDT MON JUL 18 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.6 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 7AM CDT THU JUL 21 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 23.9N 94.4W 44 X X X 44 FREEPORT TX X X 2 2 4 24.5N 96.8W 6 23 1 X 30 PORT O CONNOR TX X 1 4 3 8 25.0N 99.2W X 17 6 1 24 CORPUSCHRISTI TX X 3 8 2 13 MMSO 238N 982W 1 21 2 X 24 BROWNSVILLE TX X 20 3 1 24 MMTM 222N 979W 2 9 2 1 14 GULF 28N 93W X X 1 1 2 MMTX 210N 974W 1 1 2 2 6 GULF 28N 95W X 1 3 2 6 MMMD 210N 897W 99 X X X 99 GULF 27N 96W X 9 5 X 14 GALVESTON TX X X 1 1 2 GULF 25N 96W 8 21 X X 29 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 7AM TUE FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 7AM TUE TO 7PM TUE C FROM 7PM TUE TO 7AM WED D FROM 7AM WED TO 7AM THU E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 7AM THU X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTPZ25 KNHC 181441 *** TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM EUGENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052005 1500Z MON JUL 18 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 105.6W AT 18/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 20SE 15SW 15NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 105.6W AT 18/1500Z AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 105.1W FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 15.6N 107.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 16.5N 109.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 17.7N 111.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 75NE 40SE 40SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 18.7N 113.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 40SE 40SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 20.0N 117.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 20.5N 120.5W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 20.5N 123.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.1N 105.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTPH20 RPMM 181200 *** TTT TYPHOON WARNING 14 AT 1200 18 JULY TYPHOON (HAITANG)(0505) WAS LOCATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT TWO FOUR POINT SIX NORTH ONE TWO ONE POINT TWO EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AT ZERO THREE METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE SIX THREE HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS FOUR ZERO METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER THREE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN TWO ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 191200 TWO FIVE POINT EIGHT NORTH ONE ONE EIGHT POINT NINE EAST AND AT 201200 TWO SEVEN POINT FOUR NORTH ONE ONE SIX POINT EIGHT EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA= ** WTCA45 TJSJ 181454 *** TCPSP5 BOLETIN HURACAN EMILY ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 26 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 10 AM AST LUNES 18 DE JULIO DE 2005 ...EMILY DIRIGIENDOSE HACIA EL OESTE DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO...SE ESPERA QUE SE FORTALEZCA NUEVAMENTE... PERMANECE EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN DESDE CABO ROJO MEXICO HACIA EL NORTE HASTA BAFFIN BAY TEXAS. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE SON POSIBLES CONDICIONES HURACANADAS DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. A LAS 10 AM CDT...1500 UTC...EL AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN DESDE CABO CATOCHE HACIA EL SUR HA SIDO DESCONTINUADO. PERMANECE EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN PARA LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN DESDE CABO CATOCHE HACIA EL OESTE Y SUR HASTA CAMPECHE. TODAS LAS PREPARACIONES PARA PROTEGER LA VIDA Y PROPIEDAD DEBEN SER COMPLETADAS DE INMEDIATO. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA EN SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE TIERRA...FAVOR DE MANTENERSE ATENTOS A LA OFICINA DE METEOROLOGIA LOCAL. A LAS 10 AM CDT...1500Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN EMILY ESTABA LOCALIZADO SOBRE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN CERCA DE LA LATITUD 21.8 NORTE...LONGITUD 89.6 OESTE O COMO A 540 MILLAS... 870 KM... AL ESTE SURESTE DE LA PESCA MEXICO Y COMO A 575 MILLAS...925 KM...AL ESTE SURESTE DE BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. EMILY SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 17 MPH... 28 KM/HR...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO CONTINUE POR LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS...CON UNA DISMINUCION GRADUAL EN LA VELOCIDAD. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. EMILY ES UN HURACAN CATEGORIA DOS EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. SE ESPERA QUE SE TORNE COMO UN HURACAN MAYOR ANTES DE QUE TOQUE TIERRA. UN AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO VERIFICARA LA INTENSIDAD ESTA TARDE. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 60 MILLAS... 95 KM...DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 150 MILLAS...240 KM. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL SE ESTIMA EN 975 MB...28.79 PULGADAS. INUNDACIONES EN LA COSTA EN EL LADO DEL CARIBE DE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN DISMINUIRAN DURANTE EL DIA DE HOY. CANTIDADES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 1 A 3 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES SOBRE LA PENINSULA DEL YUCATAN CON CANTIDADES MAXIMAS AISLADAS DE HASTA DE 5 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 10 AM CDT...21.8 NORTE... 89.6 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA...EL OESTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 17 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 100 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...975 MILIBARAS. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA A LA 1 PM CDT SEGUIDA POR UNA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 4 PM CDT. PRONOSTICADOR AVILA $$ ** WTPZ45 KNHC 181455 *** TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM EUGENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT MON JUL 18 2005 SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING INDICATES THAT THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE LOCATED ABOUT 285 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND THAT A TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS FORMED...SO ADVISORIES ARE BEING INITIATED. 12Z DVORAK T-NUMBERS WERE 2.0 FROM TAFB AND SAB... CORRESPONDING TO AN INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 30 KT. HOWEVER... SHIP MSTM6 AT 12Z... LOCATED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE ESTIMATED CENTER LOCATION... REPORTED 30 KT WINDS FROM THE WEST. SINCE WINDS COULD EASILY BE A LITTLE STRONGER TO THE NORTH OR EAST OF THE CENTER... THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 35 KT AND THE SYSTEM IS NAMED EUGENE... THE FIFTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE 2005 EASTERN PACIFIC SEASON. EUGENE APPEARS TO HAVE ABOUT 36 HOURS TO SLOWLY STRENGTHEN... WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR... BEFORE REACHING THE 26 CELSIUS ISOTHERM. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE SHIPS GUIDANCE AND PEAKS AT 50 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/12. EUGENE IS BEING STEERED ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES... IN A LOCATION JUST SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH THAN AVERAGE FOR JULY. THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST TO PERSIST AND INDUCE EUGENE ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING... AWAY FROM THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO... UNTIL IT REACHES COOLER WATERS AND WEAKENS AFTER 48 HOURS. THEREAFTER... EUGENE AND ITS EVENTUAL REMNANTS SHOULD BE STEERED WESTWARD IN THE LOWER LEVEL TRADE WIND FLOW. FORECASTER KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 18/1500Z 15.1N 105.6W 35 KT 12HR VT 19/0000Z 15.6N 107.2W 40 KT 24HR VT 19/1200Z 16.5N 109.2W 45 KT 36HR VT 20/0000Z 17.7N 111.2W 50 KT 48HR VT 20/1200Z 18.7N 113.3W 40 KT 72HR VT 21/1200Z 20.0N 117.5W 30 KT 96HR VT 22/1200Z 20.5N 120.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 120HR VT 23/1200Z 20.5N 123.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ ** WTPQ20 BABJ 181500 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY HAITANG 0505 (0505) INITIAL TIME 181500 UTC 00HR 24.7N 120.4E 955HPA 40M/S 30KTS 450KM 50KTS 150KM P12HR WNW 15KM/H= ** WTPN31 PHNC 181600 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/180751ZJUL2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 05E (EUGENE) WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 181200Z --- NEAR 14.9N 105.1W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 14.9N 105.1W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 190000Z --- 15.6N 107.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 191200Z --- 16.5N 109.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 200000Z --- 17.7N 111.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 201200Z --- 18.7N 113.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 211200Z --- 20.0N 117.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 221200Z --- 20.5N 120.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 231200Z --- 20.5N 123.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 180751Z JUL 05 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PHNC 180800 ) MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 182200Z, 190400Z, 191000Z AND 191600Z.// ** WTPN31 PHNC 181600 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/180751ZJUL2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 05E (EUGENE) WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 181200Z --- NEAR 14.9N 105.1W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 14.9N 105.1W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 190000Z --- 15.6N 107.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 191200Z --- 16.5N 109.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 200000Z --- 17.7N 111.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 201200Z --- 18.7N 113.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 211200Z --- 20.0N 117.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 221200Z --- 20.5N 120.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 231200Z --- 20.5N 123.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 180751Z JUL 05 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PHNC 180800 ) MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 182200Z, 190400Z, 191000Z AND 191600Z.// ** WTPN31 PHNC 181600 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/180751ZJUL2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 05E (EUGENE) WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 181200Z --- NEAR 14.9N 105.1W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 14.9N 105.1W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 190000Z --- 15.6N 107.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 191200Z --- 16.5N 109.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 200000Z --- 17.7N 111.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT ** WTPN31 PHNC 181600 RRB *** 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 201200Z --- 18.7N 113.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 211200Z --- 20.0N 117.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 221200Z --- 20.5N 120.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 231200Z --- 20.5N 123.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 180751Z JUL 05 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PHNC 180800 ) MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 182200Z, 190400Z, 191000Z AND 191600Z.// ** WTJP31 RJTD 181500 *** WARNING 181500. WARNING VALID 191500. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0505 HAITANG (0505) 970 HPA AT 24.7N 120.9E TAIWAN MOVING NORTHWEST 06 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 80 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 70 MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 375 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 300 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 190300UTC AT 25.3N 119.6E WITH 60 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 191500UTC AT 25.9N 118.6E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 181500 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0505 HAITANG (0505) ANALYSIS PSTN 181500UTC 24.7N 120.9E GOOD MOVE NW 06KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 50KT 80NM EAST 70NM WEST 30KT 375NM NORTHEAST 300NM SOUTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 191500UTC 25.9N 118.6E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT 45HF 201200UTC 28.2N 116.7E 150NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTUS84 KBRO 181610 *** HLSBRO TXZ251-254>257-181900- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX 1110 AM CDT MON JUL 18 2005 ...HURRICANE EMILY MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO... ...A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE TEXAS GULF COAST FROM BAFFIN BAY TO BROWNSVILLE... ...INLAND HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR HIDALGO AND STARR COUNTIES IN DEEP SOUTH TEXAS... ...INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ZAPATA...BROOKS AND JIM HOGG COUNTIES IN DEEP SOUTH TEXAS... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE LOWER TEXAS COASTLINE WHICH INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES: ZAPATA...STARR...JIM HOGG...BROOKS... HIDALGO...CAMERON...WILLACY AND KENEDY. ...WATCH AND WARNING INFORMATION... AS OF 1100 AM CDT...EMERGENCY OFFICIALS HAVE MADE NO EVACUATION RECOMMENDATION FOR CAMERON...WILLACY...AND KENEDY COUNTIES. THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF SOUTH PADRE ISLAND...PORT ISABEL...AND PORT MANSFIELD. COUNTY AND CITY OFFICIALS WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 10 AM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.6 WEST OR ABOUT 540 MILES... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF LA PESCA MEXICO AND ABOUT 575 MILES...EAST- SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. ...MOVEMENT... EMILY IS MOVING WEST NORTHWEST AT 17 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY. GIVEN THIS TRACK...EMILY IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AROUND MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT APPROXIMATELY 80 MILES SOUTH OF BROWNSVILLE...OR ABOUT 70 MILES NORTH OF LA PESCA MEXICO. ...WINDS... MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WITH HURRICANE EMILY WERE NEAR 100 MPH. HURRICANE EMILY IS EXPECTED TO REGAIN STRENGTH AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO TODAY BECOMING A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE PRIOR TO LANDFALL. ...STORM SURGE AND TIDES... TIDES ARE EXPECTED TO RUN 1 FOOT ABOVE MEAN LOWER LOW WATER. GIVEN THE CURRENT TRACK OF EMILY...STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO BE 2 TO 4 FEET. ...WINDS IMPACTS... WINDS ARE EXPECTED INCREASE ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY. WINDS GUSTS TO NEAR 50 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED OVER COASTAL SECTIONS TUESDAY EVENING. ...RIP CURRENTS AND MARINE CONDITIONS... THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL BE HIGH ON TUESDAY AS EMILY APPROACHES. WAVES WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 14 FEET OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY WITH WAVES UP TO 18 FEET POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT. WAVES WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE ON WEDNESDAY. ...RAINFALL... RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS WITH HURRICANE EMILY. ISOLATED AMOUNTS TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. ALL RESIDENTS SHOULD BE AWARE OF THE DANGER POSED BY FLOODING RAINS. NEVER DRIVE INTO WATER OF UNKNOWN DEPTH. REMEMBER...TURN AROUND DON'T DROWN. THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 200 PM. $$ KV/TS ** WTPQ20 BABJ 181600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY HAITANG 0505 (0505) INITIAL TIME 181600 UTC 00HR 24.7N 120.3E 960HPA 40M/S 30KTS 450KM 50KTS 150KM P12HR WNW 15KM/H= ** WTSS20 VHHH 181645 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 181500 UTC, TYPHOON HAITANG (0505) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 965 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO FOUR POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (24.6 N) ONE TWO ZERO POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (120.6 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 70 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 200 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 250 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 191500 UTC TWO SIX POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (26.2 N) ONE ONE EIGHT POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (118.2 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 201500 UTC TWO EIGHT POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (28.7 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (115.1 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 20 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 211500 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTSS20 VHHH 181645 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 181500 UTC, TYPHOON HAITANG (0505) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 965 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO FOUR POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (24.6 N) ONE TWO ZERO POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (120.6 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 70 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 200 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 250 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 191500 UTC TWO SIX POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (26.2 N) ONE ONE EIGHT POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (118.2 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 201500 UTC TWO EIGHT POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (28.7 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (115.1 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 20 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 211500 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTPQ20 BABJ 181700 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY HAITANG 0505 (0505) INITIAL TIME 181700 UTC 00HR 24.7N 120.2E 960HPA 40M/S 30KTS 450KM 50KTS 150KM P12HR WNW 15KM/H= ** WTNT35 KNHC 181755 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN HURRICANE EMILY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 31A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1 PM CDT MON JUL 18 2005 ...NOAA RECONNAISSANCE PLANE FINDS A WEAKER EMILY...RE-STRENGTHENING EXPECTED.... A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM CABO ROJO MEXICO NORTHWARD TO BAFFIN BAY TEXAS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CABO CATOCHE WESTWARD AND SOUTHWARD TO CAMPECHE. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 1 PM CDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.3 WEST OR ABOUT 490 MILES...785 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF LA PESCA MEXICO AND ABOUT 510 MILES... 820 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY...WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. DATA FROM A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT EMILY WEAKENED OVER YUCATAN AND THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EMILY IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. HOWEVER...RE-STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AND EMILY COULD REGAIN MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS BEFORE LANDFALL. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES... 95 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES...240 KM. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY A NOAA HURRICANE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 984 MB...29.06 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING ON THE CARIBBEAN SIDE OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TODAY. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 5 INCHES. REPEATING THE 1 PM CDT POSITION...22.0 N... 90.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 984 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 4 PM CDT. FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT80 EGRR 181755 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 18.07.2005 TROPICAL STORM EUGENE ANALYSED POSITION : 13.9N 105.4W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP052005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 18.07.2005 13.9N 105.4W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 19.07.2005 15.4N 106.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 19.07.2005 16.8N 108.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 20.07.2005 18.6N 110.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.07.2005 19.2N 112.6W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 21.07.2005 20.3N 113.6W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 21.07.2005 21.4N 114.4W BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH HURRICANE EMILY ANALYSED POSITION: 21.3N 88.4W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 18.07.2005 21.3N 88.4W STRONG 00UTC 19.07.2005 22.7N 91.0W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 19.07.2005 23.9N 93.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 20.07.2005 24.0N 95.9W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 20.07.2005 25.0N 98.0W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 21.07.2005 26.2N 100.9W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 21.07.2005 26.2N 100.8W BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 181755