** WTPH RPLL 170500 *** T T T GALE WARNING NO. 01 FOR STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTHWEST MONSOON ISSUED AT 1:30 PM TODAY, JULY 18, 2005 (VALID UNTIL NEXT WARNING TO BE ISSUED AT 5 AM TOMORROW) A SURGE OF STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE ENHANCED SOUTHWEST MONSOON BY TYPHOON FERIA (HAITANG)(0505) IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN SEABOARD OF LUZON AND THE WESTERN SEABOARD OF VISAYAS. SEA AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF ILOCOS REGION WILL HAVE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS AND IS EXPECTED TO HAVE WINDS OF 35 TO 65 KPH (20 TO 35 KNOTS). SEA CONDITIONS WILL BE ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH WITH WAVE HEIGHT OF 3 TO 6 METERS. LIKEWISE, SEA AREAS WEST OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LUZON WILL HAVE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH WINDS OF 22 TO 50 KPH (12 TO 25 KNOTS), SEA CONDITIONS WILL BE MODERATE TO ROUGH. FISHING BOATS AND OTHER SMALL SEACRAFTS IN THESE AREAS ARE ADVISED NOT TO VENTURE OUT OFF SEA WHILE BIGGER SEACRAFTS ARE ALERTED AGAINST MODERATE TO HIGHWAVES. WATCH FOR THE NEXT UPDATE TO BE ISSUED AT 5 AM TOMORROW. ** WTPQ20 BABJ 180600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY HAITANG 0505 (0505) INITIAL TIME 180600 UTC 00HR 23.9N 121.8E 940HPA 45M/S 30KTS 480KM 50KTS 180KM P12HR WNW 15KM/H= ** WTIN20 DEMS 180612 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE NEW DELHI 18-07-2005 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTIVE CLOUDS OVER SOUTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL ARABIAN SEA .CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE ALSO SEEN OVER SOUTHWEST AND ADJOINING CENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL AND SOUTH ANDAMAN SEA (.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 30.0 DEG. NORTH OVER INDIAN REGION (.) ** WTPQ20 BABJ 180600 CCA *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY HAITANG 0505 (0505) INITIAL TIME 180600 UTC 00HR 23.9N 121.8E 940HPA 45M/S 30KTS 480KM 50KTS 180KM P12HR WNW 15KM/H P+24HR 25.7N 118.7E 970HPA 35M/S P+48HR 26.8N 116.5E 995HPA 15M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 180600 *** WARNING 180600. WARNING VALID 190600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0505 HAITANG (0505) 960 HPA AT 23.7N 121.6E TAIWAN MOVING NORTH SLOWLY. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 80 MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 375 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 300 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 181800UTC AT 24.5N 120.6E WITH 60 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 190600UTC AT 25.2N 119.4E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 200600UTC AT 27.4N 117.3E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 994 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 210600UTC AT 29.1N 114.5E WITH 220 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 998 HPA. BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 180600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0505 HAITANG (0505) ANALYSIS PSTN 180600UTC 23.7N 121.6E GOOD MOVE N SLOWLY PRES 960HPA MXWD 070KT 50KT 120NM EAST 80NM WEST 30KT 375NM NORTHEAST 300NM SOUTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 190600UTC 25.2N 119.4E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 06KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 055KT 48HF 200600UTC 27.4N 117.3E 150NM 70% MOVE NW 07KT PRES 994HPA MXWD 040KT 72HF 210600UTC 29.1N 114.5E 220NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTNT65 KNHC 180658 *** TCUAT5 HURRICANE EMILY TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 300 AM EDT MON JUL 18 2005 SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY MADE LANDFALL JUST NORTH OF TULUM MEXICO NEAR 0630Z...230 AM EDT THIS MORNING. THE ESTIMATED INTENSITY AT LANDFALL WAS 135 MPH...CATEGORY FOUR ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. THE NORTHERN EYEWALL...WHERE THE WORST WEATHER WOULD BE EXPECTED...PASSED DIRECTLY OVER COZUMEL. FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTPQ30 RJTD 180600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO.16 FOR TY 0505 HAITANG (0505) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 180600 UTC IS GOOD. TY WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TY WILL MOVE NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TY WILL BE GRADED DOWN TO STS WITHIN 24 HOURS. TY WILL WEAKEN BECAUSE EYE HAS BECOME OBSCURE FI-NUMBER WILL BE 2.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPN21 PHNC 180800 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 180751Z JUL 05// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.6N 103.1W TO 16.3N 107.6W WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IM AGERY AT 180300Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 103.5W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS. THE NEXT SATELLITE INVESTIGATION IS SCHEDULED FOR 190600Z. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 102.5W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 103.5W, APPROXIMATELY 245 NM WEST- SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO. A 180123Z QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) SUPPORTED BY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, AND RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY REVEALS AN IN- CREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE LLCC IS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF INCREASING 850 MB VORTICITY AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. DUE TO THE INCREASE IN VORTICITY AND STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, THE POTEN- TIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 190800Z.// ** WTPQ20 BABJ 180700 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY HAITANG 0505 (0505) INITIAL TIME 180700 UTC 00HR 24.2N 121.7E 940HPA 45M/S 30KTS 480KM 50KTS 180KM P12HR WNW 15KM/H= ** WTPQ20 VHHH 180745 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 180600 UTC, TYPHOON HAITANG (0505) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 945 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO THREE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (23.6 N) ONE TWO ONE POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (121.8 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 90 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 240 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 150 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 300 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 190600 UTC TWO FIVE POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (25.3 N) ONE ONE NINE POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (119.1 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 55 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 200600 UTC TWO SIX POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (26.4 N) ONE ONE EIGHT POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (118.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 210600 UTC TWO SEVEN POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (27.7 N) ONE ONE SIX POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (116.2 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 20 KNOTS. ** WTPN31 PGTW 180900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 05W (HAITANG) WARNING NR 028 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 180600Z --- NEAR 23.7N 121.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 23.7N 121.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z --- 24.3N 119.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z --- 24.9N 118.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 191800Z --- 25.7N 118.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 180900Z POSITION NEAR 23.8N 120.9E. TYPHOON (TY) 05W (HAITANG), LOCATED OVER LAND AND APPROXIMATELY 80 NM SOUTH OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY REVEALS SIG- NIFICANT DISSIPATION OF DEEP CONVECTION IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180600Z IS 40 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 181500Z, 182100Z, 190300Z AND 190900Z.// ** WTPQ20 BABJ 180800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY HAITANG 0505 (0505) INITIAL TIME 180800 UTC 00HR 24.4N 121.6E 940HPA 45M/S 30KTS 480KM 50KTS 180KM P12HR WNW 15KM/H= ** WTNT25 KNHC 180841 *** TCMAT5 HURRICANE EMILY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 30 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052005 0900Z MON JUL 18 2005 AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FROM CABO ROJO NORTHWARD TO THE TEXAS BORDER. AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED ALONG THE SOUTH TEXAS COAST FROM BROWNSVILLE TO BAFFIN BAY. A HURRICANE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM CABO ROJO MEXICO NORTHWARD TO BAFFIN BAY TEXAS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE...THEN WESTWARD AND SOUTHWARD TO CAMPECHE...INCLUDING COZUMEL AND THE ISLAS MUJERES. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD TO THE BELIZE-MEXICO BORDER. THIS WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER THIS MORNING. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 88.0W AT 18/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 962 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT. 64 KT....... 50NE 25SE 15SW 30NW. 50 KT.......100NE 40SE 25SW 50NW. 34 KT.......130NE 125SE 50SW 110NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 210SE 0SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 88.0W AT 18/0900Z AT 18/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 87.3W FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 21.6N 90.1W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 15SE 0SW 30NW. 50 KT... 90NE 40SE 25SW 60NW. 34 KT...130NE 75SE 50SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 22.9N 92.8W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 25SE 15SW 40NW. 50 KT... 90NE 40SE 25SW 60NW. 34 KT...130NE 75SE 50SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 23.8N 95.2W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. 50 KT...100NE 40SE 40SW 100NW. 34 KT...130NE 75SE 75SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 24.4N 97.7W...ON THE COASTLINE MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT...100NE 40SE 30SW 75NW. 34 KT...130NE 75SE 75SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 25.0N 103.0W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.6N 88.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/1500Z FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT75 KNHC 180841 *** SPFAT5 HURRICANE EMILY PROBABILITIES NUMBER 30 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT MON JUL 18 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.0 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2AM EDT THU JUL 21 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 22.9N 92.8W 45 X X X 45 GALVESTON TX X X 1 2 3 23.8N 95.2W 3 27 X X 30 FREEPORT TX X X 1 4 5 24.4N 97.7W X 16 7 1 24 PORT O CONNOR TX X X 4 4 8 MMCZ 205N 869W 99 X X X 99 CORPUSCHRISTI TX X X 8 5 13 MMSO 238N 982W X 13 8 1 22 BROWNSVILLE TX X 8 11 2 21 MMTM 222N 979W X 8 6 2 16 GULF 28N 93W X X 1 2 3 MMTX 210N 974W X 3 4 3 10 GULF 28N 95W X X 4 3 7 MMVR 192N 961W X X X 2 2 GULF 27N 96W X 3 9 2 14 MMMD 210N 897W 80 X X X 80 GULF 25N 96W X 21 4 X 25 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM TUE FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2AM TUE TO 2PM TUE C FROM 2PM TUE TO 2AM WED D FROM 2AM WED TO 2AM THU E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM THU X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT35 KNHC 180847 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN HURRICANE EMILY ADVISORY NUMBER 30 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT MON JUL 18 2005 ...EMILY BEGINS TO WEAKEN OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...HURRICANE WATCHES ISSUED ALONG THE WESTERN GULF COAST. AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FROM CABO ROJO NORTHWARD TO THE TEXAS BORDER. AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED ALONG THE SOUTH TEXAS COAST FROM BROWNSVILLE TO BAFFIN BAY. A HURRICANE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM CABO ROJO MEXICO NORTHWARD TO BAFFIN BAY TEXAS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE...THEN WESTWARD AND SOUTHWARD TO CAMPECHE...INCLUDING COZUMEL AND THE ISLAS MUJERES. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD TO THE BELIZE-MEXICO BORDER. THIS WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER THIS MORNING. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR LATITUDE 20.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 88.0 WEST OR ABOUT 70 MILES... 115 KM... WEST OF COZUMEL MEXICO AND ABOUT 120 MILES... 195 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PROGRESO MEXICO. EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH ...28 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. EMILY IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR MIDDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EMILY IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED WHILE EMILY IS OVER LAND. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES... 95 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES...240 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 962 MB...28.41 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING ON THE CARIBBEAN SIDE OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WILL BE DIMINISHING DURING THE DAY TODAY. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 12 INCHES. REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT POSITION...20.6 N... 88.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 962 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 AM EDT. FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT45 KNHC 180853 *** TCDAT5 HURRICANE EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER 30 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT MON JUL 18 2005 THE EYEWALL OF HURRICANE EMILY PASSED OVER COZUMEL A FEW HOURS AGO. THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT OVERFLEW THE ISLAND DURING THE EYEWALL PASSAGE...AT 05Z...AND REPORTED PEAK FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 124 KT. AT 0322Z...THEY REPORTED 141 KT. LANDFALL OCCURRED NEAR 0630Z JUST NORTH OF TULUM. THE RECONNAISSANCE DATA SUGGEST THAT EMILY LIKELY MADE LANDFALL AS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE WITH MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR 115 KT. NO OBSERVATIONS HAVE YET BEEN RECEIVED FROM THE LANDFALL AREA. EMILY WILL BE SPENDING ROUGHLY 9 HOURS OVER THE YUCATAN...BUT IS LIKELY TO MAINTAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH DURING THIS PASSAGE. A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE MAY BE CONTRIBUTING SOME SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER EMILY...BUT GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS UPPER LOW WILL MOVE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AND WEAKEN WITHIN 12-24 HOURS. THIS WOULD RESULT IN AN UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE TO STRENGTHENING. THEREFORE...RE-INTENSIFICATION IS LIKELY ONCE THE CENTER MOVES BACK OVER THE WATERS OF THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. JUST HOW MUCH EMILY RESTRENGTHENS IS PARTLY DEPENDENT ON THE EXTENT THAT THE INNER CORE IS DISRUPTED AFTER PASSING OVER NORTHERN YUCATAN. THE INITIAL MOTION...295/15...IS ABOUT THE SAME AS BEFORE...AND THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ALSO BASICALLY UNCHANGED. NOAA AND AIR FORCE RESERVE AIRCRAFT CONDUCTED SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSIONS IN THE GULF AND NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN LAST NIGHT. DROPSONDE DATA FROM THESE MISSIONS SHOW A MID-LEVEL RIDGE SOLIDLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS RIDGE COULD WEAKEN A LITTLE OVER THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS WITH THE PASSAGE OF A MID-LATITUDE SHORT WAVE TO THE NORTH. THE UPPER LOW IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE COULD ALSO RESULT IN A SLIGHT RIGHTWARD DEFLECTION OF THE TRACK. HOWEVER...BOTH OF THESE INFLUENCES SHOULD DIMINISH IN ANOTHER 24 HOURS OR SO AND THE TRACK SHOULD THEN BEND BACK TOWARD THE LEFT. THE GFS...WHICH HAS PERFORMED WELL WITH THIS STORM...IS ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...WHILE THE NOGAPS IS ON THE NORTHERN EGDE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE...WHICH IN FACT HAS OUTPERFORMED BOTH THE NOGAPS AND GFS WITH THIS CYCLONE. NONE OF THE STANDARD GUIDANCE SHOWS A LANDFALL IN SOUTH TEXAS AT THIS TIME. NEVERTHELESS...GIVEN THAT THE AVERAGE 48 HOUR TRACK ERROR IS ABOUT 140 NMI...SUCH A LANDFALL IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE. 1-MINUTE DATA FROM NOAA BUOY 42056 WERE HELPFUL IN ADJUSTING THE 34 KT WIND RADII IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 18/0900Z 20.6N 88.0W 95 KT 12HR VT 18/1800Z 21.6N 90.1W 75 KT 24HR VT 19/0600Z 22.9N 92.8W 85 KT 36HR VT 19/1800Z 23.8N 95.2W 95 KT 48HR VT 20/0600Z 24.4N 97.7W 100 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 21/0600Z 25.0N 103.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 96HR VT 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ ** WTNT85 KNHC 180904 *** TCVAT5 EMILY WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 500 AM EDT MON JUL 18 2005 .HURRICANE EMILY TXC061-261-489-GMZ130-150-155-170-175-181500- /E.NEW.KNHC.HU.A.1005.050718T0900Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 AM EDT MON JUL 18 2005 BROWNSVILLE-TX 26.05N 97.17W BAFFIN-BAY-TX 27.29N 97.38W $$ ATTN...WFO...BRO... ** WTPQ20 BABJ 180900 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY HAITANG 0505 (0505) INITIAL TIME 180900 UTC 00HR 24.5N 121.5E 940HPA 45M/S 30KTS 480KM 50KTS 180KM P12HR WNW 15KM/H= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 180900 CCA *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY HAITANG 0505 (0505) INITIAL TIME 180900 UTC 00HR 24.5N 121.5E 940HPA 45M/S 30KTS 480KM 50KTS 180KM P12HR WNW 15KM/H P+24HR 26.1N 118.6E 975HPA 33M/S= ** WTPH20 RPMM 180600 *** TTT TYPHOON WARNING 13 AT 0600 18 JULY (HAITANG) {0505} WAS LOCATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT TWO THREE POINT EIGHT NORTH ONE TWO ONE POINT SIX EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ZERO THREE METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE FIVE FOUR HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS FOUR FIVE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER THREE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN TWO ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 190600 TWO FIVE POINT TWO NORTH ONE ONE EIGHT POINT NINE EAST AND AT 200600 TWO SIX POINT TWO NORTH ONE ONE SIX POINT EIGHT EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE-HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA= ** WTJP31 RJTD 180900 *** WARNING 180900. WARNING VALID 190900. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0505 HAITANG (0505) 970 HPA AT 24.5N 121.4E TAIWAN MOVING NORTH 12 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 110 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 80 MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 375 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 300 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 182100UTC AT 25.0N 120.0E WITH 60 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 190900UTC AT 25.6N 118.8E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 180900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0505 HAITANG (0505) ANALYSIS PSTN 180900UTC 24.5N 121.4E GOOD MOVE N 12KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 50KT 110NM EAST 80NM WEST 30KT 375NM NORTHEAST 300NM SOUTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 190900UTC 25.6N 118.8E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 06KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 45HF 200600UTC 27.4N 117.3E 150NM 70% MOVE NW 07KT PRES 994HPA MXWD 040KT 69HF 210600UTC 29.1N 114.5E 220NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 181000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY HAITANG 0505 (0505) INITIAL TIME 181000 UTC 00HR 24.6N 121.4E 940HPA 45M/S 30KTS 480KM 50KTS 180KM P12HR WNW 15KM/H= ** WTUS84 KBRO 181049 *** HLSBRO TXZ251-254>257-181400- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX 545 AM CDT MON JUL 18 2005 ...HURRICANE EMILY MOVING THROUGH THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... ...A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE TEXAS GULF COAST FROM BAFFIN BAY TO BROWNSVILLE... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE LOWER TEXAS COASTLINE WHICH INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES: CAMERON...WILLACY AND KENEDY. ...WATCH AND WARNING INFORMATION... AS OF 500 AM CDT...EMERGENCY OFFICIALS HAVE MADE NO EVACUATION RECOMMENDATION FOR CAMERON...WILLACY...AND KENEDY COUNTIES. THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF SOUTH PADRE ISLAND...PORT ISABEL...AND PORT MANSFIELD. COUNTY AND CITY OFFICIALS WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 400 AM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.0 WEST APPROXIMATELY 70 MILES WEST OF COZUMEL. ...MOVEMENT... EMILY IS MOVING WEST NORTHWEST AT 18 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. GIVEN THIS TRACK...EMILY IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AROUND MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT APPROXIMATELY 100 MILES SOUTH OF BROWNSVILLE...OR 50 MILES NORTH OF LA PESCA. ...WINDS... MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WITH HURRICANE EMILY WERE NEAR 110 MPH. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING OF THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED AS EMILY MOVES THROUGH THROUGH THE YUCATAN THIS MORNING. EMILY IS THEN FORECASTED TO STRENGTHEN SHORTLY AFTER IT MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT. ...STORM SURGE AND TIDES... TIDES ARE EXPECTED TO RUN 1 FOOT ABOVE MEAN LOWER LOW WATER. GIVEN THE CURRENT TRACK OF EMILY...STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO BE 2 TO 4 FEET. ...WINDS IMPACTS... WINDS ARE EXPECTED INCREASE ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE COASTAL WATERS ON TUESDAY. WINDS GUSTS TO NEAR 50 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED OVER COASTAL SECTIONS TUESDAY EVENING. ...RIP CURRENTS AND MARINE CONDITIONS... THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL BE HIGH ON TUESDAY AS EMILY APPROACHES. WAVES WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 14 FEET OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY WITH WAVES UP TO 18 FEET POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT. WAVES WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE ON WEDNESDAY. ...RAINFALL... RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS WITH HURRICANE EMILY. ISOLATED AMOUNTS TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. ALL RESIDENTS SHOULD BE AWARE OF THE DANGER POSED BY FLOODING RAINS. NEVER DRIVE INTO WATER OF UNKNOWN DEPTH. REMEMBER... TURN AROUND DON'T DROWN. THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 800 AM. $$ AP ** WTPQ20 VHHH 181045 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 180900 UTC, TYPHOON HAITANG (0505) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 945 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO FOUR POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (24.3 N) ONE TWO ONE POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (121.5 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 90 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 200 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 300 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 190900 UTC TWO FIVE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (25.6 N) ONE ONE EIGHT POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (118.5 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 200900 UTC TWO SEVEN POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (27.9 N) ONE ONE SIX POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (116.1 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 210900 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTNT35 KNHC 181140 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN HURRICANE EMILY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 30A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM EDT MON JUL 18 2005 ...EMILY OVER YUCATAN...EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO LATER TODAY... A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM CABO ROJO MEXICO NORTHWARD TO BAFFIN BAY TEXAS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE...THEN WESTWARD AND SOUTHWARD TO CAMPECHE...INCLUDING COZUMEL AND THE ISLAS MUJERES. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED. AT 8 AM...1200 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD TO THE BELIZE-MEXICO BORDER HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. SATELLITE IMAGES AND DATA FROM CANCUN RADAR INDICATE THAT AT 8 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR LATITUDE 21.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.9 WEST JUST NORTHWEST OF TIZIMIN OR ABOUT 50 MILES...80 KM...EAST- NORTHEAST OF MERIDA MEXICO. EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. EMILY IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO LATER THIS MORNING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EMILY IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME RE-STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED WHEN EMILY MOVES BACK OVER WATER. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES... 95 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES...240 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 975 MB...28.79 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING ON THE CARIBBEAN SIDE OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WILL BE DIMINISHING DURING THE DAY TODAY. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 12 INCHES. REPEATING THE 8 AM EDT POSITION...21.2 N... 88.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 975 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM EDT. FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTPQ20 BABJ 181100 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY HAITANG 0505 (0505) INITIAL TIME 181100 UTC 00HR 24.7N 121.3E 955HPA 40M/S 30KTS 450KM 50KTS 150KM P12HR WNW 15KM/H=