** WTSR20 WSSS 171800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 180000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY HAITANG 0505 (0505) INITIAL TIME 180000 UTC 00HR 23.9N 121.6E 930HPA 55M/S 30KTS 550KM 50KTS 200KM P12HR NW 20KM/H= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 180000 CCA *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY HAITANG 0505 (0505) INITIAL TIME 180000 UTC 00HR 23.9N 121.6E 930HPA 55M/S 30KTS 550KM 50KTS 200KM P12HR NW 20KM/H P+24HR 25.8N 118.6E 970HPA 35M/S P+48HR 27.0N 116.0E 995HPA 15M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 180000 *** WARNING 180000. WARNING VALID 190000. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0505 HAITANG (0505) 950 HPA AT 23.7N 121.7E EAST OF TAIWAN MOVING WEST 12 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90 MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 300 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 181200UTC AT 24.8N 120.6E WITH 60 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 190000UTC AT 25.6N 119.6E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 200000UTC AT 26.5N 118.6E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 210000UTC AT 28.3N 117.2E WITH 220 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 998 HPA. BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 180000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0505 HAITANG (0505) ANALYSIS PSTN 180000UTC 23.7N 121.7E GOOD MOVE W 12KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 50KT 150NM EAST 90NM WEST 30KT 350NM NORTHEAST 300NM SOUTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 190000UTC 25.6N 119.6E 80NM 70% MOVE NW 06KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 48HF 200000UTC 26.5N 118.6E 150NM 70% MOVE NW SLOWLY PRES 992HPA MXWD 045KT 72HF 210000UTC 28.3N 117.2E 220NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTPQ30 RJTD 180000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO.15 FOR TY 0505 HAITANG (0505) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 180000 UTC IS GOOD. TY WILL DECELERATE FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS. TY WILL MOVE NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TY WILL BE GRADED DOWN TO STS WITHIN 24 HOURS. TY WILL WEAKEN BECAUSE EYE HAS BECOME OBSCURE TY WILL WEAKEN BECAUSE LANDFALL IS EXPECTED WITHIN 6 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 3.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTKO20 RKSL 180000 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 7 NAME TY 0505 HAITANG ANALYSIS POSITION 180000UTC 23.7N 121.7E MOVEMENT W 13KT PRES/VMAX 950HPA 80KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 190000UTC 25.4N 119.5E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 980HPA 58KT 48HR POSITION 200000UTC 26.6N 118.0E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 994HPA 39KT 72HR POSITION 210000UTC 28.0N 116.4E WITHIN 215NM PRES 998HPA KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTKO20 RKSL 180000 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 7 NAME TY 0505 HAITANG ANALYSIS POSITION 180000UTC 23.7N 121.7E MOVEMENT W 13KT PRES/VMAX 950HPA 80KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 190000UTC 25.4N 119.5E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 980HPA 58KT 48HR POSITION 200000UTC 26.6N 118.0E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 994HPA 35KT 72HR POSITION 210000UTC 28.0N 116.4E WITHIN 215NM PRES 998HPA KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPQ20 BABJ 180100 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY HAITANG 0505 (0505) INITIAL TIME 180100 UTC 00HR 23.6N 121.5E 935HPA 50M/S 30KTS 520KM 50KTS 200KM P12HR WNW 20KM/H= ** WTPQ20 VHHH 180145 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 180000 UTC, TYPHOON HAITANG (0505) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 940 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO THREE POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (23.9 N) ONE TWO ONE POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (121.7 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 95 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 240 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 300 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 190000 UTC TWO FOUR POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (24.8 N) ONE ONE NINE POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (119.3 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 60 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 200000 UTC TWO SIX POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (26.2 N) ONE ONE SEVEN POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (117.4 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 210000 UTC TWO SEVEN POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (27.7 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (115.3 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS. ** WTPN31 PGTW 180300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 05W (HAITANG) WARNING NR 027 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 180000Z --- NEAR 23.7N 121.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 23.7N 121.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 181200Z --- 23.8N 120.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 190000Z --- 24.6N 118.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 191200Z --- 25.2N 118.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 180300Z POSITION NEAR 23.7N 121.2E. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180000Z IS 45 FEET. TYPHOON (TY) 05W (HAITANG) HAS MADE LANDFALL IN THE VICINITY OF HUALIEN, TAIWAN, APPROXIMATELY 85 NM SOUTH OF TAIPEI. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY REVEALS THAT OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS TY 05W HAS TRACKED TOWARD THE NORTHWEST THEN MADE A SHARP TURN TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST IN THE PAST 03 HOURS. THE EYE HAS BECOME OBSCURED AND THE SYSTEM IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY DISORGANIZED OVER LAND. NEXT WARNINGS AT 180900Z, 181500Z, 182100Z AND 190300Z.// ** WTPQ20 BABJ 180200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY HAITANG 0505 (0505) INITIAL TIME 180200 UTC 00HR 23.5N 121.4E 935HPA 50M/S 30KTS 500KM 50KTS 200KM P12HR WNW 20KM/H= ** WTNT25 KNHC 180248 *** TCMAT5 HURRICANE EMILY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 29 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052005 0300Z MON JUL 18 2005 A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE...THEN WESTWARD AND SOUTHWARD TO CAMPECHE...INCLUDING COZUMEL AND THE ISLAS MUJERES. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD TO THE BELIZE-MEXICO BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY. A HURRICANE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TEXAS COAST AND THE NORTHEAST COAST OF MEXICO EARLY MONDAY. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 86.5W AT 18/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 955 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. 64 KT....... 50NE 25SE 15SW 40NW. 50 KT.......100NE 40SE 25SW 60NW. 34 KT.......130NE 80SE 50SW 110NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 200SE 100SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 86.5W AT 18/0300Z AT 18/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 85.8W FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 21.0N 88.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 15SE 0SW 40NW. 50 KT...100NE 25SE 15SW 60NW. 34 KT...130NE 60SE 30SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 22.3N 91.7W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 25SE 15SW 40NW. 50 KT...100NE 40SE 25SW 60NW. 34 KT...130NE 80SE 50SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 23.3N 94.4W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. 50 KT...100NE 40SE 40SW 100NW. 34 KT...130NE 75SE 75SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 24.1N 96.8W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT...100NE 40SE 40SW 100NW. 34 KT...130NE 75SE 75SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 25.0N 102.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.9N 86.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0900Z FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTNT35 KNHC 180249 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN HURRICANE EMILY ADVISORY NUMBER 29 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT SUN JUL 17 2005 ...DANGEROUS HURRICANE EMILY APPROACHING THE NORTHEAST YUCATAN PENINSULA... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE...THEN WESTWARD AND SOUTHWARD TO CAMPECHE...INCLUDING COZUMEL AND THE ISLAS MUJERES. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD TO THE BELIZE-MEXICO BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY. A HURRICANE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TEXAS COAST AND THE NORTHEAST COAST OF MEXICO EARLY MONDAY. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.9 NORTH... LONGITUDE 86.5 WEST OR ABOUT 50 MILES... 80 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO AND ABOUT 230 MILES... 370 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PROGRESO MEXICO. EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH ...30 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER WILL BE NEAR THE NORTHEAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN A FEW HOURS AND THEN MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. EMILY IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO LATER ON MONDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EMILY IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS LIKELY BEFORE LANDFALL. SOME WEAKENING WILL OCCUR AS EMILY MOVES OVER NORTHERN YUCATAN ON MONDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES... 95 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES...240 KM. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE RECENTLY REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 955 MB...28.20 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 8 TO 12 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL IN MEXICO. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 12 INCHES. LESSER AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN CUBA. REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...19.9 N... 86.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 955 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM EDT. FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTNT75 KNHC 180249 *** SPFAT5 HURRICANE EMILY PROBABILITIES NUMBER 29 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT SUN JUL 17 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.5 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8PM EDT WED JUL 20 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 22.3N 91.7W 45 X X X 45 GALVESTON TX X X 1 3 4 23.3N 94.4W 2 29 X X 31 FREEPORT TX X X 1 4 5 24.1N 96.8W X 16 7 1 24 PORT O CONNOR TX X X 3 6 9 MMCZ 205N 869W 99 X X X 99 CORPUSCHRISTI TX X X 6 7 13 MMSO 238N 982W X 7 12 2 21 BROWNSVILLE TX X 3 14 2 19 MMTM 222N 979W X 6 8 3 17 GULF 28N 93W X X 1 3 4 MMTX 210N 974W X 3 5 3 11 GULF 28N 95W X X 4 4 8 MMVR 192N 961W X X 1 2 3 GULF 27N 96W X 1 9 4 14 MMMD 210N 897W 69 X X X 69 GULF 25N 96W X 14 8 1 23 PORT ARTHUR TX X X X 2 2 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM MON FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8PM MON TO 8AM TUE C FROM 8AM TUE TO 8PM TUE D FROM 8PM TUE TO 8PM WED E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM WED X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTNT45 KNHC 180253 *** TCDAT5 HURRICANE EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER 29 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT SUN JUL 17 2005 AIR FORCE RECON REPORTED A PEAK 700 MB FLIGHT LEVEL WIND OF 134 KT IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT AT 0018Z. NORMALLY THIS WOULD CORRESPOND TO A SURFACE WIND ESTIMATE OF ABOUT 120 KT. HOWEVER...THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS BEEN RISING STEADILY AND IS NOW UP TO 955 MB. THEREFORE IT IS ESTIMATED THAT THE INTENSITY IS JUST A LITTLE LOWER AT THIS TIME...115 KT. THIS IS STILL CATEGORY FOUR STRENGTH...AND EMILY REMAINS A FORMIDABLE HURRICANE. RADAR IMAGERY FROM CANCUN SHOWS THE EYEWALL STRUCTURE FLUCTUATING...BUT WITH NO DEFINITIVE INDICATIONS OF AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS LIKELY BEFORE LANDFALL IN A FEW HOURS. A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE MAY HAVE BEEN IMPARTING SOME SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER EMILY. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS UPPER LOW WILL MOVE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AND WEAKEN WITHIN 12-24 HOURS....CREATING AN UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT THAT APPEARS TO BE CONDUCIVE TO STRENGTHENING. THEREFORE...ONCE THE CENTER MOVES BACK OVER THE WATERS OF THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO... RE-INTENSIFICATION IS PREDICTED. JUST HOW MUCH EMILY RESTRENGTHENS IS PARTLY DEPENDENT ON THE EXTENT THAT THE INNER CORE IS DISRUPTED AFTER PASSING OVER NORTHERN YUCATAN. INITIAL MOTION...295/16...IS ABOUT THE SAME AS BEFORE. THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING IS ALSO BASICALLY UNCHANGED. THE GFS MODEL INDICATES THAT A VERY WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY CAUSE A SLIGHT EROSION IN THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...BUT THE RIDGE IS LIKELY TO RESTRENGTHEN THEREAFTER. THE CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMICAL TRACK MODELS HAS SHIFTED EVER SO SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH FOR THIS PACKAGE...WITH THE GFS SHOWING THE SOUTHERNMOST TRACK. INTERESTINGLY...THAT MODEL HAS HAD THE LOWEST 72 HR TRACK ERROR OF ALL THE GUIDANCE FOR EMILY...THUS FAR. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS NOW A LITTLE TO THE NORTH OF THE CONSENSUS. A HURRICANE WATCH WILL PROBABLY BE ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST...INCLUDING THE SOUTHERN TEXAS COAST...EARLY ON MONDAY. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 18/0300Z 19.9N 86.5W 115 KT 12HR VT 18/1200Z 21.0N 88.9W 90 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 19/0000Z 22.3N 91.7W 95 KT 36HR VT 19/1200Z 23.3N 94.4W 100 KT 48HR VT 20/0000Z 24.1N 96.8W 105 KT 72HR VT 21/0000Z 25.0N 102.0W 30 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ ** WTPH20 RPMM 180000 *** TTT TYPHOON WARNING 12 AT 0000 18 JULY TYPHOON (HAITANG) {0505} WAS LOCATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT TWO THREE POINT SEVEN NORTH ONE TWO ONE POINT SEVEN EAST FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ZERO FOUR METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE FIVE FOUR HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS FOUR FIVE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER THREE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN TWO ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADUIS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 190000 TWO FIVE POINT SIX NORTH ONE ONE NINE POINT THREE EAST AND AT 200000 TWO SIX POINT SIX NORTH ONE ONE EIGHT POINT ZERO EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE-HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 180300 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY HAITANG 0505 (0505) INITIAL TIME 180300 UTC 00HR 23.4N 121.4E 940HPA 45M/S 30KTS 480KM 50KTS 180KM P12HR WNW 20KM/H= ** WTPH RPLL 180000 *** TTT TYPHOON WARNING 12 AT 0000 18 JULY TYPHOON ( HAITANG) (0505) WAS LOCATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT TWO THREE POINT SEVEN NORTH ONE TWO ONE POINT SEVEN EAST FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ZERO FOUR METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADUIS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE FIVE FOUR HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS FOUR FIVE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER THREE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN TWO ZERO ZERO KILOMETERS RADUIS ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS RADUIS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 190000 TWO FIVE POINT SIX NORTH ONE ONE NINE POINT THREE EAST AND AT 200000 TWO SIX POINT SIX NORTH ONE ONE EIGHT POINT ZERO EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE-HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD. WEATHER MANILA ** WTJP31 RJTD 180300 *** WARNING 180300. WARNING VALID 190300. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0505 HAITANG (0505) 955 HPA AT 23.3N 121.4E TAIWAN MOVING SOUTHWEST 10 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 170 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 80 MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 375 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 300 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 181500UTC AT 24.5N 120.2E WITH 60 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 190300UTC AT 25.2N 119.2E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 180300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0505 HAITANG (0505) ANALYSIS PSTN 180300UTC 23.3N 121.4E GOOD MOVE SW 10KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 075KT 50KT 170NM EAST 80NM WEST 30KT 375NM NORTHEAST 300NM SOUTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 190300UTC 25.2N 119.2E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 45HF 200000UTC 26.5N 118.6E 150NM 70% MOVE NW SLOWLY PRES 992HPA MXWD 045KT 69HF 210000UTC 28.3N 117.2E 220NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 180400 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY HAITANG 0505 (0505) INITIAL TIME 180400 UTC 00HR 23.6N 121.7E 940HPA 45M/S 30KTS 480KM 50KTS 180KM P12HR WNW 20KM/H= ** WTPQ20 VHHH 180445 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 180300 UTC, TYPHOON HAITANG (0505) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 940 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO THREE POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (23.7 N) ONE TWO ONE POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (121.7 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 95 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 240 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 330 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 190300 UTC TWO FOUR POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (24.8 N) ONE ONE NINE POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (119.1 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 60 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 200300 UTC TWO SIX POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (26.4 N) ONE ONE SEVEN POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (117.2 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 210300 UTC TWO SEVEN POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (27.8 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (115.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS. ** WTPQ20 BABJ 180500 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY HAITANG 0505 (0505) INITIAL TIME 180500 UTC 00HR 23.8N 121.9E 940HPA 45M/S 30KTS 480KM 50KTS 180KM P12HR WNW 20KM/H= ** WTNT35 KNHC 180537 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN HURRICANE EMILY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 29A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM EDT MON JUL 18 2005 ...EYEWALL OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE EMILY POUNDING COZUMEL...CENTER ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL ON THE YUCATAN... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE...THEN WESTWARD AND SOUTHWARD TO CAMPECHE...INCLUDING COZUMEL AND THE ISLAS MUJERES. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE WARNING AREA SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD TO THE BELIZE-MEXICO BORDER. INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY. A HURRICANE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TEXAS COAST AND THE NORTHEAST COAST OF MEXICO EARLY MONDAY. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 2 AM EDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 87.3 WEST OR ABOUT 25 MILES... 40 KM... WEST-SOUTHWEST OF COZUMEL MEXICO AND ABOUT 170 MILES... 275 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PROGRESO MEXICO. EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH ...30 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CENTER OF EMILY HAS PASSED JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF COZUMEL...AND WILL BE ONSHORE WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. EMILY IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO LATER TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EMILY IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME WEAKENING WILL OCCUR AS EMILY MOVES OVER NORTHERN YUCATAN THIS MORNING. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES... 95 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES...240 KM. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE RECENTLY REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 955 MB...28.20 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 8 TO 12 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL IN MEXICO. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 12 INCHES. LESSER AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN CUBA. REPEATING THE 2 AM EDT POSITION...20.3 N... 87.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 955 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM EDT. FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT80 EGRR 180540 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 18.07.2005 TROPICAL STORM ANALYSED IN THE MODEL AT POSITION : 13.3N 106.9W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 18.07.2005 13.3N 106.9W WEAK 12UTC 18.07.2005 13.7N 108.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.07.2005 17.8N 105.6W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 19.07.2005 19.4N 107.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.07.2005 21.1N 109.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 20.07.2005 22.1N 112.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 21.07.2005 22.9N 113.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 21.07.2005 23.7N 114.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 22.07.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM ANALYSED IN THE MODEL AT POSITION : 11.3N 124.4W HURRICANE EMILY ANALYSED POSITION : 19.5N 85.8W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 18.07.2005 19.5N 85.8W STRONG 12UTC 18.07.2005 21.0N 88.3W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 19.07.2005 22.2N 91.0W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 19.07.2005 23.0N 93.4W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 20.07.2005 23.5N 95.5W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.07.2005 23.9N 97.3W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 21.07.2005 24.0N 101.4W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 21.07.2005 23.6N 104.3W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 22.07.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 180540