** WTPQ20 BABJ 171800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY HAITANG 0505 (0505) INITIAL TIME 171800 UTC 00HR 23.6N 123.1E 925HPA 60M/S 30KTS 550KM 50KTS 230KM P12HR NW 20KM/H= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 171800 CCA *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY HAITANG 0505 (0505) INITIAL TIME 171800 UTC 00HR 23.6N 123.1E 925HPA 60M/S 30KTS 550KM 50KTS 230KM P12HR NW 20KM/H P+24HR 25.7N 120.0E 955HPA 40M/S P+48HR 27.1N 118.0E 985HPA 25M/S P+72HR 28.7N 116.2E 995HPA 15M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 171800 *** WARNING 171800. WARNING VALID 181800. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0505 HAITANG (0505) 930 HPA AT 23.7N 123.1E WESTSOUTHWEST OF ISHIGAKIJIMA MOVING NORTHWEST 10 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 130 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 300 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 180600UTC AT 24.5N 121.8E WITH 60 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 940 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 181800UTC AT 25.2N 120.7E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 191800UTC AT 26.1N 119.3E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 201800UTC AT 28.3N 117.2E WITH 220 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 996 HPA. BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 171800 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0505 HAITANG (0505) ANALYSIS PSTN 171800UTC 23.7N 123.1E GOOD MOVE NW 10KT PRES 930HPA MXWD 095KT 50KT 130NM 30KT 350NM NORTHEAST 300NM SOUTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 181800UTC 25.2N 120.7E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 06KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 48HF 191800UTC 26.1N 119.3E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 72HF 201800UTC 28.3N 117.2E 220NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 171900 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY HAITANG 0505 (0505) INITIAL TIME 171900 UTC 00HR 23.7N 122.9E 925HPA 60M/S 30KTS 550KM 50KTS 230KM P12HR NW 20KM/H= ** WTPQ20 VHHH 171945 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 171800 UTC, TYPHOON HAITANG (0505) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 940 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO THREE POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (23.7 N) ONE TWO THREE POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (123.0 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 100 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 240 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 300 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 181800 UTC TWO FIVE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (25.2 N) ONE TWO ZERO POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (120.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 70 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 191800 UTC TWO SIX POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (26.7 N) ONE ONE EIGHT POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (118.6 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 55 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 201800 UTC TWO EIGHT POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (28.4 N) ONE ONE SIX POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (116.2 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS. ** WTNT35 KNHC 172032 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN HURRICANE EMILY ADVISORY NUMBER 28 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT SUN JUL 17 2005 ...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR EMILY CONTINUING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE...THEN WESTWARD AND SOUTHWARD TO CAMPECHE...INCLUDING COZUMEL AND THE ISLAS MUJERES. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD TO THE BELIZE-MEXICO BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF EXTREME WESTERN CUBA. INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...AS WELL AS IN SOUTHERN TEXAS...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.2 WEST OR ABOUT 135 MILES... 215 KM...SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO AND ABOUT 320 MILES... 515 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PROGRESO MEXICO. EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/HR... AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF EMILY IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY MORNING...AND MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 145 MPH...230 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS MAKES EMILY A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE COMMON IN MAJOR HURRICANES...BUT LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED BEFORE EMILY MAKES LANDFALL. WEAKENING IS THEN EXPECTED AS THE CENTER OF EMILY CROSSES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES... 95 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES...240 KM. NOAA BUOY 42056 RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 58 MPH WITH A GUST TO 69 MPH. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 948 MB...27.99 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 8 TO 12 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL IN MEXICO. ABOVE NORMAL TIDES IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS SHOULD SUBSIDE TONIGHT. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 12 INCHES. LESSER AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN CUBA. WHILE SOME OUTER RAIN BANDS MAY CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...IN GENERAL RAINFALL SHOULD DECREASE ACROSS THOSE ISLANDS THIS EVENING. REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...19.4 N... 85.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 948 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM EDT. FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT75 KNHC 172033 *** SPFAT5 HURRICANE EMILY PROBABILITIES NUMBER 28 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT SUN JUL 17 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.2 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2PM EDT WED JUL 20 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 21.8N 90.4W 46 1 X X 47 GALVESTON TX X X 1 4 5 23.0N 93.2W 1 30 X X 31 FREEPORT TX X X 1 6 7 23.9N 95.7W X 14 9 1 24 PORT O CONNOR TX X X 3 7 10 MMCZ 205N 869W 85 X X X 85 CORPUSCHRISTI TX X X 5 8 13 MMSO 238N 982W X 2 13 4 19 BROWNSVILLE TX X 1 13 5 19 MMTM 222N 979W X 2 10 4 16 GULF 28N 91W X X 1 1 2 MMTX 210N 974W X 1 6 5 12 GULF 28N 93W X X 2 4 6 MMVR 192N 961W X X 1 3 4 GULF 28N 95W X X 4 6 10 MMMD 210N 897W 55 X X X 55 GULF 27N 96W X X 10 5 15 PORT ARTHUR TX X X X 3 3 GULF 25N 96W X 6 14 2 22 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM MON FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2PM MON TO 2AM TUE C FROM 2AM TUE TO 2PM TUE D FROM 2PM TUE TO 2PM WED E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM WED X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT25 KNHC 172033 *** TCMAT5 HURRICANE EMILY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052005 2100Z SUN JUL 17 2005 A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE...THEN WESTWARD AND SOUTHWARD TO CAMPECHE...INCLUDING COZUMEL AND THE ISLAS MUJERES. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD TO THE BELIZE-MEXICO BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF EXTREME WESTERN CUBA. INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...AS WELL AS IN SOUTHERN TEXAS...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 85.2W AT 17/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 17 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 948 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 150 KT. 64 KT....... 50NE 25SE 15SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 90NE 35SE 25SW 60NW. 34 KT.......130NE 80SE 50SW 110NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 200SE 100SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 85.2W AT 17/2100Z AT 17/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 84.4W FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 20.4N 87.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 25SE 15SW 30NW. 50 KT... 90NE 35SE 25SW 60NW. 34 KT...130NE 80SE 50SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 21.8N 90.4W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 15SE 15SW 30NW. 50 KT... 75NE 25SE 25SW 60NW. 34 KT...130NE 80SE 50SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 23.0N 93.2W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. 50 KT... 90NE 40SE 40SW 90NW. 34 KT...125NE 75SE 75SW 125NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 23.9N 95.7W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 40SE 40SW 90NW. 34 KT...125NE 75SE 75SW 125NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 25.0N 100.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 50SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 25.5N 105.0W...INLAND DISSIPATING MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.4N 85.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0300Z FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT45 KNHC 172034 *** TCDAT5 HURRICANE EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER 28 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT SUN JUL 17 2005 THE LAST REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER INDCIATED THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE OF EMILY HAD RISEN TO 948 MB...AND THAT THE MAXIMUM 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS HAD DECREASED TO 134 KT IN THE NORTH QUADRANT. SINCE THE PLANE LEFT...THERE ARE MIXED SIGNALS ON THE STRUCTURE. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN IS BETTER ORGANIZED AND THAT THERE HAS BEEN SIGNIFICANT CLOUD TOP COOLING NEAR THE CENTER. HOWEVER...THE EYE HAS BECOME MUCH LESS DISTINCT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 125 KT BASED ON THE LAST AIRCRAFT DATA. THE CANCUN RADAR SUGGESTS AN OUTER EYEWALL MAY BE FORMING...ALTHOUGH THE RADAR CAN NOT YET RELIABLY SEE THE PRECIPITATION EAST OF THE EYE. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/17...JUST A LITTLE RIGHT OF 6 HR AGO. THERE HAVE BEEN SOME CHANGES IN THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE...LIKELY DUE TO BETTER MODEL ANALYSES OF THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWESTERN UNITED STATES AND ITS SUBSEQUENT IMPACT ON THE SOUTHERN U.S. RIDGE. LARGE-SCALE MODELS ARE NOW CALLING FOR MORE OF A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN GULF COAST. THIS CAUSES THE TRACK GUIDANCE TO FORECAST LESS OF A WESTWARD TURN WHILE EMILY IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...WHICH CAUSES THE MODELS TO FORECAST LANDFALL FARTHER TO THE NORTH OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS MOVED A LITTLE NORTHWARD IN RESPONSE TO THE GUIDANCE SHIFT AND IS NOW IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE INSTEAD OF THE NORTHERN EDGE. THIS CHANGE IN THE FORECAST TRACK INCREASES THE THREAT TO SOUTHERN TEXAS. GIVEN THE COOLING TOPS AND THE IMPROVEMENT IN THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN...A BURST OF INTENSIFICATION PRIOR TO LANDFALL CANNOT BE RULED OUT. HOWEVER...IF AN OUTER EYEWALL IS FORMING THIS BECOMES LESS LIKELY. EMILY SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER LANDFALL...THEN RE-INTENSIFY OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. HOW MUCH EMILY COULD INTENSIFY OVER THE GULF WILL DEPEND ON JUST WHAT STRUCTURE EMERGES FROM YUCATAN...SO THERE IS A LARGER THAN NORMAL POSSIBLE ERROR ON THE 24-48 HR INTENSITY FORECASTS. NEVERTHELESS...EMILY IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ON THE NORTH AMERICAN MAINLAND AS A MAJOR HURRICANE. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 17/2100Z 19.4N 85.2W 125 KT 12HR VT 18/0600Z 20.4N 87.5W 125 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 18/1800Z 21.8N 90.4W 90 KT...OVER WATER 36HR VT 19/0600Z 23.0N 93.2W 100 KT 48HR VT 19/1800Z 23.9N 95.7W 105 KT 72HR VT 20/1800Z 25.0N 100.5W 65 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 21/1800Z 25.5N 105.0W 20 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING 120HR VT 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ ** WTPN31 PGTW 172100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 05W (HAITANG) WARNING NR 026 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 171800Z --- NEAR 23.7N 123.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 23.7N 123.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 24.6N 121.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z --- 25.2N 120.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z --- 25.7N 118.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 191800Z --- 26.2N 118.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 172100Z POSITION NEAR 23.9N 122.6E. TYPHOON (TY) 05W (HAITANG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 115 NM SOUTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWEST AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT TY 05W HAS BRIEFLY BECOME MORE ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. HOWEVER, IT WILL CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT A WEAKENING TREND AS DEEP CONVECTION IN THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTHWEST QUADRANTS DIMINISH AS A RESULT OF LAND INTERACTION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171800Z IS 43 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 180300Z, 180900Z, 181500Z AND 182100Z.// ** WTNT80 EGRR 172038 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 17.07.2005 NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+24 : 15.3N 105.6W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 18.07.2005 15.3N 105.6W WEAK 00UTC 19.07.2005 15.9N 107.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.07.2005 17.2N 108.3W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 20.07.2005 19.0N 109.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.07.2005 20.2N 111.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 21.07.2005 21.2N 113.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 21.07.2005 22.2N 114.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 22.07.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH HURRICANE EMILY ANALYSED POSITION : 17.9N 82.8W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 17.07.2005 17.9N 82.8W STRONG 00UTC 18.07.2005 18.9N 85.8W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 18.07.2005 20.9N 88.3W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 19.07.2005 22.1N 91.4W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 19.07.2005 23.1N 93.6W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 20.07.2005 23.8N 95.9W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 20.07.2005 24.7N 98.0W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 21.07.2005 24.1N 101.8W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 21.07.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH - THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 172038 ** WTPQ20 BABJ 172000 CCA *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY HAITANG 0505 (0505) INITIAL TIME 172000 UTC 00HR 23.8N 122.7E 925HPA 60M/S 30KTS 550KM 50KTS 230KM P12HR NW 20KM/H= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 172000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY HAITANG 0505 (0505) INITIAL TIME 172000 UTC 00HR 23.8N 122.7E 925HPA 60M/S 30KTS 550KM 50KTS 230KM P12HR NW 20KM/H= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 172100 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY HAITANG 0505 (0505) INITIAL TIME 172100 UTC 00HR 24.0N 122.4E 925HPA 60M/S 30KTS 550KM 50KTS 230KM P12HR NW 20KM/H= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 172100 CCA *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY HAITANG 0505 (0505) INITIAL TIME 172100 UTC 00HR 24.0N 122.4E 925HPA 60M/S 30KTS 550KM 50KTS 230KM P12HR NW 20KM/H P+24HR 25.7N 119.8E 955HPA 40M/S P+48HR 27.1N 117.8E 990HPA 20M/S P+72HR 28.7N 116.2E 995HPA 15M/S= ** WTPH20 RPMM 171800 *** TTT TYPH0ON WARNING 11 AT 1800 17 JULY TYPHOON (HAITANG) (0505) WAS LOCATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT TWO THREE POINT SEVEN NORTH ONE TWO THREE POINT POINT ONE EAST MOVING NORTHWEST AT ZERO FOUR METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN THREE EIGHT HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS FIVE THREE METERS PER SECOND SECOND NEAR CENTER THREE THREE METERS METERS PER SECOND WITHIN TWO TWO ZERO ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 181800 TWO FIVE POINT TWO NORTH ONE ONE POINT SIX EAST AND AT 191800 TWO SIX POINT POINT ZERO NORTH ONE ONE SEVEN POINT FIVE EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 172100 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0505 HAITANG (0505) ANALYSIS PSTN 172100UTC 24.1N 122.5E GOOD MOVE NW 12KT PRES 935HPA MXWD 090KT 50KT 120NM EAST 100NM WEST 30KT 350NM NORTHEAST 300NM SOUTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 182100UTC 25.5N 119.9E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 07KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 45HF 191800UTC 26.1N 119.3E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 69HF 201800UTC 28.3N 117.2E 220NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTJP31 RJTD 172100 *** WARNING 172100. WARNING VALID 182100. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0505 HAITANG (0505) 935 HPA AT 24.1N 122.5E EAST OF TAIWAN MOVING NORTHWEST 12 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 100 MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 300 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 180900UTC AT 24.9N 121.3E WITH 60 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 182100UTC AT 25.5N 119.9E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPH RPLL 171800 *** T T T TYPHOON WARNING 11 AT 1800 17 JULY TYPHOON (HAITANG) (0505) WAS LOCATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT 23.7N 123.1E MOVING NORTHWEST AT 04MPS ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN 350KMS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE 938 HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS 53MPS NEAR CENTER 33MPS WITHIN 200KMS RADIUS 13MPS WITHIN 350KMS RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITION AT 181800 25.2N 119.6E AT 191800 26.0N 117.5E ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORT TO WEATHER MANILA PD= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 172200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY HAITANG 0505 (0505) INITIAL TIME 172200 UTC 00HR 24.0N 122.1E 925HPA 60M/S 30KTS 550KM 50KTS 230KM P12HR NW 20KM/H= ** WTPQ20 VHHH 172245 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 172100 UTC, TYPHOON HAITANG (0505) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 930 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO FOUR POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (24.1 N) ONE TWO TWO POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (122.4 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 100 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 240 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 300 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 182100 UTC TWO FIVE POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (25.5 N) ONE ONE NINE POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (119.9 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 70 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 192100 UTC TWO SEVEN POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (27.4 N) ONE ONE SEVEN POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (117.8 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 55 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 202100 UTC TWO NINE POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (29.1 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (115.4 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS. ** WTPQ20 BABJ 172300 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY HAITANG 0505 (0505) INITIAL TIME 172300 UTC 00HR 23.9N 121.8E 925HPA 60M/S 30KTS 550KM 50KTS 230KM P12HR WNW 20KM/H= ** WTNT35 KNHC 172344 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN HURRICANE EMILY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 28A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM EDT SUN JUL 17 2005 ...HURRICANE EMILY BEARING DOWN ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE...THEN WESTWARD AND SOUTHWARD TO CAMPECHE...INCLUDING COZUMEL AND THE ISLAS MUJERES. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD TO THE BELIZE-MEXICO BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF EXTREME WESTERN CUBA. INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...AS WELL AS IN SOUTHERN TEXAS...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 8 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.9 WEST OR ABOUT 90 MILES... 145 KM...SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO AND ABOUT 270 MILES... 440 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PROGRESO MEXICO. EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/HR... AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF EMILY IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY MORNING...AND MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EMILY IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE COMMON IN MAJOR HURRICANES... BUT LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED BEFORE EMILY MAKES LANDFALL. WEAKENING WILL OCCUR AS THE CENTER OF EMILY CROSSES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES... 95 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES...240 KM. NOAA BUOY 42056 RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 73 MPH WITH A GUST TO 85 MPH. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE RECENTLY REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 951 MB...28.08 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 8 TO 12 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL IN MEXICO. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 12 INCHES. LESSER AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN CUBA. REPEATING THE 8 PM EDT POSITION...19.6 N... 85.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 951 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM EDT. FORECASTER PASCH $$