** WTSR20 WSSS 170600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 171200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY HAITANG 0505 (0505) INITIAL TIME 171200 UTC 00HR 23.0N 124.0E 925HPA 60M/S 30KTS 550KM 50KTS 230KM P12HR NW 20KM/H= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 171200 CCA *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY HAITANG 0505 (0505) INITIAL TIME 171200 UTC 00HR 23.0N 124.0E 925HPA 60M/S 30KTS 550KM 50KTS 230KM P12HR NW 20KM/H P+24HR 25.2N 120.6E 955HPA 40M/S P+48HR 26.7N 118.6E 975HPA 30M/S P+72HR 28.4N 116.8E 990HPA 18M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 171200 *** WARNING 171200. WARNING VALID 181200. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0505 HAITANG (0505) 930 HPA AT 23.1N 124.0E SOUTH OF ISHIGAKIJIMA MOVING NORTHWEST 12 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 130 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 300 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 180000UTC AT 24.0N 122.1E WITH 60 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 940 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 181200UTC AT 25.0N 120.8E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 191200UTC AT 26.6N 118.6E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 201200UTC AT 28.8N 116.4E WITH 220 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 996 HPA. BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 171200 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0505 HAITANG (0505) ANALYSIS PSTN 171200UTC 23.1N 124.0E GOOD MOVE NW 12KT PRES 930HPA MXWD 095KT 50KT 130NM 30KT 350NM NORTHEAST 300NM SOUTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 181200UTC 25.0N 120.8E 80NM 70% MOVE NW 07KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 48HF 191200UTC 26.6N 118.6E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 06KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 72HF 201200UTC 28.8N 116.4E 220NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 171300 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY HAITANG 0505 (0505) INITIAL TIME 171300 UTC 00HR 23.1N 123.8E 925HPA 60M/S 30KTS 550KM 50KTS 230KM P12HR NW 20KM/H= ** WTPQ20 VHHH 171345 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 171200 UTC, TYPHOON HAITANG (0505) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 940 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO THREE POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (23.0 N) ONE TWO THREE POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (123.9 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 95 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 240 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 300 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 181200 UTC TWO FOUR POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (24.5 N) ONE TWO ZERO POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (120.8 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 70 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 191200 UTC TWO FIVE POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (25.9 N) ONE ONE NINE POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (119.4 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 55 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 201200 UTC TWO SEVEN POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (27.9 N) ONE ONE SEVEN POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (117.2 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS. ** WTPN31 PGTW 171500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 05W (HAITANG) WARNING NR 025 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 171200Z --- NEAR 23.0N 124.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 23.0N 124.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z --- 24.3N 122.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 181200Z --- 25.1N 120.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 190000Z --- 25.6N 119.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 191200Z --- 26.2N 118.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 171500Z POSITION NEAR 23.3N 123.6E. TYPHOON (TY) 05W (HAITANG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 185 NM SOUTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY REVEALS CONTINUED WEAKENING OF DEEP CONVECTION AND FRAGMENTATION OF THE EYEWALL IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171200Z IS 43 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 172100Z, 180300Z, 180900Z AND 181500Z.// ** WTPQ20 BABJ 171400 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY HAITANG 0505 (0505) INITIAL TIME 171400 UTC 00HR 23.2N 123.6E 925HPA 60M/S 30KTS 550KM 50KTS 230KM P12HR NW 20KM/H= ** WTNT75 KNHC 171431 *** SPFAT5 HURRICANE EMILY PROBABILITIES NUMBER 27 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT SUN JUL 17 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.6 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8AM EDT WED JUL 20 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 20.9N 88.9W 45 1 X X 46 NEW IBERIA LA X X X 2 2 22.2N 91.6W 1 29 1 X 31 PORT ARTHUR TX X X X 3 3 23.1N 94.2W X 13 10 1 24 GALVESTON TX X X X 5 5 MWCG 193N 814W 6 X X X 6 FREEPORT TX X X X 7 7 MUAN 219N 850W 5 X X X 5 PORT O CONNOR TX X X 1 8 9 MMCZ 205N 869W 62 X X X 62 CORPUSCHRISTI TX X X 1 10 11 MMSO 238N 982W X X 9 8 17 BROWNSVILLE TX X X 7 9 16 MMTM 222N 979W X X 9 6 15 GULF 28N 91W X X 1 2 3 MMTX 210N 974W X X 6 7 13 GULF 28N 93W X X 1 5 6 MMVR 192N 961W X X 2 5 7 GULF 28N 95W X X 2 7 9 MMFR 185N 926W 1 1 1 1 4 GULF 27N 96W X X 4 9 13 MMMD 210N 897W 36 4 X X 40 GULF 25N 96W X 1 13 5 19 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM MON FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8AM MON TO 8PM MON C FROM 8PM MON TO 8AM TUE D FROM 8AM TUE TO 8AM WED E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM WED X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT25 KNHC 171432 *** TCMAT5 HURRICANE EMILY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052005 1500Z SUN JUL 17 2005 AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE HURRICANE WARNING WESTWARD ALONG THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO CAMPECHE. A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE...THEN WESTWARD AND SOUTHWARD TO CAMPECHE...INCLUDING COZUMEL AND THE ISLAS MUJERES. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD TO THE BELIZE-MEXICO BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF EXTREME WESTERN CUBA. AT 11 AM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS CANCELLED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR GRAND CAYMAN ISLAND. INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 83.6W AT 17/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 17 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 946 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 130 KT WITH GUSTS TO 160 KT. 64 KT....... 50NE 25SE 15SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 90NE 35SE 25SW 60NW. 34 KT.......130NE 80SE 50SW 110NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 215SE 100SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 83.6W AT 17/1500Z AT 17/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 82.8W FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 19.5N 85.9W MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 25SE 15SW 30NW. 50 KT... 90NE 35SE 25SW 60NW. 34 KT...130NE 80SE 50SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 20.9N 88.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 25SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 90NE 35SE 25SW 60NW. 34 KT...130NE 50SE 40SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 22.2N 91.6W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 15SE 15SW 30NW. 50 KT... 75NE 25SE 25SW 75NW. 34 KT...125NE 80SE 50SW 125NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 23.1N 94.2W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 40SE 40SW 90NW. 34 KT...125NE 75SE 75SW 125NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 24.5N 99.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...125NE 75SE 50SW 75NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 24.5N 104.0W...INLAND DISSIPATING MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.6N 83.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/2100Z FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT35 KNHC 171433 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN HURRICANE EMILY ADVISORY NUMBER 27 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT SUN JUL 17 2005 ...CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE EMILY MOVING AWAY FROM THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...NEW HURRICANE WARNING FOR MEXICO... AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE HURRICANE WARNING WESTWARD ALONG THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO CAMPECHE. A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE...THEN WESTWARD AND SOUTHWARD TO CAMPECHE...INCLUDING COZUMEL AND THE ISLAS MUJERES. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD TO THE BELIZE-MEXICO BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF EXTREME WESTERN CUBA. AT 11 AM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS CANCELLED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR GRAND CAYMAN ISLAND. INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.6 WEST OR ABOUT 165 MILES... 265 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF GRAND CAYMAN AND ABOUT 250 MILES... 405 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO. EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/HR... AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF EMILY IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE YUCATAN PENINSULA LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY MORNING. REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 150 MPH...240 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS MAKES EMILY A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE COMMON IN MAJOR HURRICANES...BUT LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED BEFORE EMILY MAKES LANDFALL. WEAKENING IS THEN EXPECTED AS THE CENTER OF EMILY CROSSES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES... 95 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES...240 KM. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER IS 946 MB...27.94 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 8-12 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL IN MEXICO. ABOVE NORMAL TIDES...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTH COASTS OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 12 INCHES. LESSER AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN CUBA. WHILE SOME OUTER RAIN BANDS MAY CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...IN GENERAL RAINFALL SHOULD DECREASE ACROSS THOSE ISLANDS TODAY. REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...18.6 N... 83.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 946 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM EDT. FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT45 KNHC 171447 *** TCDAT5 HURRICANE EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER 27 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT SUN JUL 17 2005 SATELLITE IMAGERY AND REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT EMILY HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST 12 HR. THE EYE HAS BECOME LESS DISTINCT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME A LITTLE RAGGED. THE AIRCRAFT INDICATES THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS RISEN TO 946 MB...WITH MAXIMUM 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 142 KT IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE 130 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 290/17. THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO EITHER THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY OR FORECAST TRACK. EMILY REMAINS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF AN EAST-WEST LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE ATLANTIC ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TO TEXAS. LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THE RIDGE TO GENERALLY PERSIST...WITH A WEAKNESS PERHAPS DEVELOPING IN 36-48 HR OVER THE WESTERN GULF COAST AS A MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES TO THE NORTH. TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION FOR 36-48 HR...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST AS THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE FILLS. WHETHER THE WEAKNESS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO ALLOW A MORE NORTHWARD TRACK THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST IS QUESTIONABLE. HOWEVER...THE TRACK AFTER 36 HR IS ALONG THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. IT IS UNCLEAR WHETHER THE WEAKENING THAT HAS OCCURRED IS DUE TO AN INTERNAL CYCLE OR EXTERNAL FORCING. A RECENT SSM/I OVERPASS DOES NOT SHOW CONCENTRIC EYEWALLS...AND WHILE CIRRUS OUTFLOW HAS DIMINISHED OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE THERE ARE NO OBVIOUS SIGNS OF SHEAR AT THIS TIME. EMILY CONTINUES TO GENERATE COLD CONVECTIVE TOPS...SO THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL FOR RE-INTENSIFICATION OR FLUCTUATIONS BEFORE LANDFALL IN YUCATAN. EMILY SHOULD WEAKEN OVER YUCATAN... THEN RE-INTENSIFY INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE CYCLONE SHOULD THEN WEAKEN QUICKLY AFTER LANDFALL IN NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND DISSIPATE BY 120 HR OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN MEXICO. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 17/1500Z 18.6N 83.6W 130 KT 12HR VT 18/0000Z 19.5N 85.9W 130 KT 24HR VT 18/1200Z 20.9N 88.9W 110 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 19/0000Z 22.2N 91.6W 85 KT...OVER WATER 48HR VT 19/1200Z 23.1N 94.2W 100 KT 72HR VT 20/1200Z 24.5N 99.0W 75 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 21/1200Z 24.5N 104.0W 20 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING 120HR VT 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ ** WTCA45 TJSJ 171459 *** TCPSP5 BOLETIN HURACAN EMILY ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 26 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 11 AM AST DOMINGO 17 DE JULIO DE 2005 ...HURACAN EMILY CATEGORIA CUATRO ALEJANDOSE DE LAS ISLAS CAYMAN...NUEVO AVISO DE HURACAN PARA MEXICO... A LAS 11 AM EDT...1500Z...EL GOBIERNO DE MEXICO HA EXTENDIDO EL AVISO DE HURACAN HACIA EL OESTE A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA DE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN HASTA CAMPECHE. AHORA ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN PARA LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN DESDE CHETUMAL AL NORTE HASTA CABO CATOCHE...LUEGO HACIA EL OESTE Y SUR HASTA CAMPECHE...INCLUYENDO COZUMEL Y LAS ISLAS MUJERES. UN AVISO DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES HURACANADAS DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. TODAS LAS PREPARACIONES PARA PROTEGER LA VIDA Y PROPIEDAD DEBEN SER COMPLETADAS DE INMEDIATO. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA EN VIGOR PARA LA COSTA DE BELIZE DESDE CIUDAD BELIZE HACIA EL NORTE HASTA LA FRONTERA DE BELIZE Y MEXICO. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES HURACANADAS DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL TAMBIEN SON POSIBLES SOBRE PORCIONES DEL EXTREMO OESTE DE CUBA. A LAS 11 AM EDT...1500Z...EL GOBIERNO DE LAS ISLAS CAYMAN HA CANCELADO EL AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LA ISLA GRAND CAYMAN. LOS INTERESES EN EL SUR DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO DEBEN DE SEGUIR EL PROGRESO DE EMILY. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA EN SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE TIERRA...FAVOR DE MANTENERSE ATENTOS A LA OFICINA DE METEOROLOGIA LOCAL. A LAS 11 AM EDT...1500Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN EMILY ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 18.6 NORTE...LONGITUD 83.6 OESTE O COMO A 165 MILLAS... 265 KM...AL SUR SUROESTE DE GRAND CAYMAN Y ALREDEDOR DE 250 MILLAS...405 KM... AL ESTE SURESTE DE COZUMEL MEXICO. EMILY SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE A CERCA DE 20 MPH... 32 KM/HR...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO CONTINUE POR LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. EN ESTE MOVIMIENTO EL CENTRO DE EMILY ALCANZARA LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN MUY TARDE ESTA NOCHE O TEMPRANO EN EL LUNES. REPORTES DE UN AVION CAZA HURACANES DE LA FUERZA AEREA INDICAN QUE LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 150 MPH...240 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. EMILY ES UN HURACAN CATEGORIA CUATRO EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. ALGUNAS FLUCTUACIONES EN INTENSIDAD SON COMUNES CON UN HURACAN MAYOR...PERO POCO CAMBIO EN SU FORTALEZA ES ANTICIPADO ANTES DE QUE LLEGUE A TIERRA. SE ESPERA DEBILITAMIENTO A MEDIDA QUE EL CENTRO DE EMILY CRUCE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 60 MILLAS... 95 KM...DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 150 MILLAS...240 KM. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL SE ESTIMA EN 946 MB...27.94 PULGADAS. PUEDEN ESPERARSE INUNDACIONES EN LA COSTA CON LA MAREA CICLONICA CON MAREAS DE 8 A 12 PIES SOBRE LO NORMAL...ACOMPANADO DE GRANDES OLAS ROMPIENTES...CERCA Y AL NORTE DE DONDE EL CENTRO TOQUE TIERRA EN MEXICO. MAREAS SOBRE LO NORMAL...ACOMPANADOS POR OLAS GRANDES Y PELIGROSAS SON POSIBLES A LO LARGO DE LAS COSTAS SUR DE LAS ISLAS CAYMAN. CANTIDADES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 5 A 8 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES SOBRE LA PENINSULA DEL YUCATAN CON CANTIDADES MAXIMAS LOCALES DE HASTA DE 12 PULGADAS. CANTIDADES MENORES DE 1 A 3 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES SOBRE CUBA OCCIDENTAL. MIENTRAS...BANDAS EXTERIORES DE LLUVIA PODRIAN CONTINUAR AFECTANDO LAS ISLAS CAYMAN. EN GENERAL...LA LLUVIA DEBE DISMINUIR A TRAVES DE ESAS ISLAS EN EL DIA DE HOY. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 11 AM AST...18.6 NORTE... 83.6 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA...EL OESTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 20 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 150 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...946 MILIBARAS. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMECIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 2 PM...SEGUIDO POR LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 5 PM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR BEVEN $$ ** WTPH RPLL 171200 *** T T T TYPHOON WARNING 10 AT 1200 17 JULY TYPHOON (HAITANG) (0505) WAS LOCATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT 23.0N 124.0E MOVING NORTHWEST AT 04MPS ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN 350KMS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE 938 HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS 53MPS NEAR CENTER 33MPS WITHIN 200KMS RADIUS 13MPS WITHIN 350KMS RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITION AT 181200 25.0N 120.6E AT 191200 26.5N 118.5E ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORT TO WEATHER MANILA PD= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 171500 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY HAITANG 0505 (0505) INITIAL TIME 171500 UTC 00HR 23.3N 123.5E 925HPA 60M/S 30KTS 550KM 50KTS 230KM P12HR NW 20KM/H= ** WTJP31 RJTD 171500 *** WARNING 171500. WARNING VALID 181500. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0505 HAITANG (0505) 930 HPA AT 23.3N 123.5E SOUTHSOUTHWEST OF ISHIGAKIJIMA MOVING NORTHWEST 11 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 130 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 300 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 180300UTC AT 24.2N 122.0E WITH 60 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 940 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 181500UTC AT 25.3N 120.6E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 171500 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0505 HAITANG (0505) ANALYSIS PSTN 171500UTC 23.3N 123.5E GOOD MOVE NW 11KT PRES 930HPA MXWD 095KT 50KT 130NM 30KT 350NM NORTHEAST 300NM SOUTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 181500UTC 25.3N 120.6E 80NM 70% MOVE NW 07KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 45HF 191200UTC 26.6N 118.6E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 06KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 69HF 201200UTC 28.8N 116.4E 220NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 171600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY HAITANG 0505 (0505) INITIAL TIME 171600 UTC 00HR 23.4N 123.4E 925HPA 60M/S 30KTS 550KM 50KTS 230KM P12HR NW 20KM/H= ** WTPQ20 VHHH 171645 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 171500 UTC, TYPHOON HAITANG (0505) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 940 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO THREE POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (23.3 N) ONE TWO THREE POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (123.5 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 95 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 240 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 300 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 181500 UTC TWO FOUR POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (24.8 N) ONE TWO ZERO POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (120.5 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 70 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 191500 UTC TWO SIX POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (26.2 N) ONE ONE NINE POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (119.2 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 55 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 201500 UTC TWO EIGHT POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (28.0 N) ONE ONE SIX POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (116.8 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS. ** WTPQ20 BABJ 171700 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY HAITANG 0505 (0505) INITIAL TIME 171700 UTC 00HR 23.5N 123.2E 925HPA 60M/S 30KTS 550KM 50KTS 230KM P12HR NW 20KM/H= ** WTNT35 KNHC 171742 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN HURRICANE EMILY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 27A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM EDT SUN JUL 17 2005 ...RECONAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS EMILY SLIGHTLY WEAKER BUT STILL AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE...THEN WESTWARD AND SOUTHWARD TO CAMPECHE...INCLUDING COZUMEL AND THE ISLAS MUJERES. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD TO THE BELIZE-MEXICO BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF EXTREME WESTERN CUBA. INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTHERN TEXAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.4 WEST OR ABOUT 195 MILES... 315 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO AND ABOUT 200 MILES... 320 KM...WEST OF GRAND CAYMAN. EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/HR... AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF EMILY IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE YUCATAN PENINSULA LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY MORNING. REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED SLIGHTLY TO NEAR 145 MPH... 235 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS MAKES EMILY A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE COMMON IN MAJOR HURRICANES...BUT LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED BEFORE EMILY MAKES LANDFALL. WEAKENING IS THEN EXPECTED AS THE CENTER OF EMILY CROSSES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES... 95 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES...240 KM. NOAA BUOY 42056 RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 46 MPH. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER IS 948 MB...27.99 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 8-12 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL IN MEXICO. ABOVE NORMAL TIDES...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTH COASTS OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 12 INCHES. LESSER AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN CUBA. WHILE SOME OUTER RAIN BANDS MAY CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...IN GENERAL RAINFALL SHOULD DECREASE ACROSS THOSE ISLANDS TODAY. REPEATING THE 2 PM EDT POSITION...19.0 N... 84.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 948 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM EDT. FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT80 EGRR 171745 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12 UTC 17.07.2005 BECAUSE OF COMPUTER PROBLEMS AT THE UK MET OFFICE, WE REGRET THAT WE ARE CURRENTLY UNABLE TO SUPPLY ANY 12UTC MODEL DATA FOR TODAY, SUNDAY 17TH JULY. AS SOON AS LATEST MODEL DATA IS RESTORED, WE WILL RESUME OUR GUIDANCE. MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 171745 ** WTCA45 TJSJ 171754 *** TCPSP5 BOLETIN HURACAN EMILY ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 26 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 2 PM AST DOMINGO 17 DE JULIO DE 2005 ...UN AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO ENCUENTRA UN DEBILITAMIENTO LEVE...PERO AUN ES UN HURACAN CATEGORIA CUATRO EXTREMADAMENTE PELIGROSO... PERMANECE EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN PARA LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN DESDE CHETUMAL AL NORTE HASTA CABO CATOCHE...LUEGO HACIA EL OESTE Y SUR HASTA CAMPECHE...INCLUYENDO COZUMEL Y LAS ISLAS MUJERES. UN AVISO DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES HURACANADAS DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. TODAS LAS PREPARACIONES PARA PROTEGER LA VIDA Y PROPIEDAD DEBEN SER COMPLETADAS DE INMEDIATO. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA EN VIGOR PARA LA COSTA DE BELIZE DESDE CIUDAD BELIZE HACIA EL NORTE HASTA LA FRONTERA DE BELIZE Y MEXICO. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES HURACANADAS DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL TAMBIEN SON POSIBLES SOBRE PORCIONES DEL EXTREMO OESTE DE CUBA. LOS INTERESES EN EL SUR DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO DEBEN DE SEGUIR EL PROGRESO DE EMILY. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA EN SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE TIERRA...FAVOR DE MANTENERSE ATENTOS A LA OFICINA DE METEOROLOGIA LOCAL. A LAS 2 PM EDT...1800Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN EMILY ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 19.0 NORTE...LONGITUD 84.4 OESTE O COMO A 195 MILLAS... 315 KM... AL ESTE SURESTE DE COZUMEL MEXICO...Y COMO A 200 MILLAS...320 KM...AL OESTE DE GRAND CAYMAN. EMILY SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE A CERCA DE 20 MPH... 32 KM/HR...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO CONTINUE POR LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. EN ESTE MOVIMIENTO EL CENTRO DE EMILY ALCANZARA LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN MUY TARDE ESTA NOCHE O TEMPRANO EN EL LUNES. REPORTES DE UN AVION CAZA HURACANES DE LA FUERZA AEREA INDICAN QUE LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 145 MPH...235 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. EMILY ES UN HURACAN CATEGORIA CUATRO EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. ALGUNAS FLUCTUACIONES EN INTENSIDAD SON COMUNES CON UN HURACAN MAYOR...PERO SE ESPERA POCO CAMBIO EN SU FUERZA ANTES DE QUE LLEGUE A TIERRA. SE ESPERA DEBILITAMIENTO A MEDIDA QUE EL CENTRO DE EMILY CRUCE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 60 MILLAS... 95 KM...DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 150 MILLAS...240 KM. LA BOYA 42056 DE NOAA REPORTO RECIENTEMENTE VIENTOS SOSTENIDOS DE 46 MPH. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL SE ESTIMA EN 948 MB...27.99 PULGADAS. PUEDEN ESPERARSE INUNDACIONES EN LA COSTA CON LA MAREA CICLONICA CON MAREAS DE 8 A 12 PIES SOBRE LO NORMAL...ACOMPANADO DE GRANDES OLAS ROMPIENTES...CERCA Y AL NORTE DE DONDE EL CENTRO TOQUE TIERRA EN MEXICO. MAREAS SOBRE LO NORMAL...ACOMPANADOS POR OLAS GRANDES Y PELIGROSAS SON POSIBLES A LO LARGO DE LAS COSTAS SUR DE LAS ISLAS CAYMAN. CANTIDADES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 5 A 8 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES SOBRE LA PENINSULA DEL YUCATAN CON CANTIDADES MAXIMAS LOCALES DE HASTA DE 12 PULGADAS. CANTIDADES MENORES DE 1 A 3 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES SOBRE CUBA OCCIDENTAL. MIENTRAS...BANDAS EXTERIORES DE LLUVIA PODRIAN CONTINUAR AFECTANDO LAS ISLAS CAYMAN. EN GENERAL...LA LLUVIA DEBE DISMINUIR A TRAVES DE ESAS ISLAS EN EL DIA DE HOY. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 2 PM AST...19.0 NORTE... 84.4 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA...EL OESTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 20 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 145 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...948 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA A LAS 5 PM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR BEVEN $$